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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

A High Performance Computational Framework for Dynamic Security Assessment under Uncertainty

Dynamic security assessment (DSA) is a critical function to evaluate power grids’ capability to survive the transition caused by a set of disturbances to an acceptable steady-state condition. Its computational burden is heavy. With the challenges brought by renewable energy and new smart grid technologies, DSA under uncertainty has to be considered to study the impact of forecast errors on DSA simulation, which further increases the computational burden. To address this challenge, this paper presents a high performance computational framework to support DSA simulation user uncertainty. The computational framework aims to provide a seamless workflow that links data from high performance computing, statistical analysis, to visualization so that a problem can be easily expressed in a way compatible with different functions. It also enables software compatibility such that application development can be more efficient. Case study results of the ESCA60 system and a western U.S. size system show the advantages and efficiency of the computational framework.

dynamic security assessment, high performance comp↗
DOE OSTI2015

High Accuracy Transistor Compact Model Calibrations

Typically, transistors are modeled by the application of calibrated nominal and range models. These models consists of differing parameter values that describe the location and the upper and lower limits of a distribution of some transistor characteristic such as current capacity. Correspondingly, when using this approach, high degrees of accuracy of the transistor models are not expected since the set of models is a surrogate for a statistical description of the devices. The use of these types of models describes expected performances considering the extremes of process or transistor deviations. In contrast, circuits that have very stringent accuracy requirements require modeling techniques with higher accuracy. Since these accurate models have low error in transistor descriptions, these models can be used to describe part to part variations as well as an accurate description of a single circuit instance. Thus, models that meet these stipulations also enable the calculation of quantification of margins with respect to a functional threshold and uncertainties in these margins. Given this need, new model high accuracy calibration techniques for bipolar junction transistors have been developed and are described in this report.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Leaf Area Index in Row Crops Using Wheel-Based and Airborne Discrete Return Light Detection and Ranging Data

Leaf area index (LAI) is an important variable for characterizing plant canopy in crop models. It is traditionally defined as the total one-sided leaf area per unit ground area and is estimated by both direct and indirect methods. This paper explores the effectiveness of using light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to estimate LAI for sorghum and maize with different treatments at multiple times during the growing season from both a wheeled vehicle and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. Linear and nonlinear regression models are investigated for prediction utilizing statistical and plant structure-based features extracted from the LiDAR point cloud data with ground reference obtained from an in-field plant canopy analyzer (indirect method). Results based on the value of the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) and root mean squared error for predictive models ranged from ∼0.4 in the early season to ∼0.6 for sorghum and ∼0.5 to 0.80 for maize from 40 Days after Sowing to harvest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitive detection of structural dynamics using a statistical framework for comparative crystallography

Chemical and conformational changes are crucial to protein function and its pharmacological control. X-ray crystallography can reveal these changes in atomic detail, but standard analysis methods, which refine separate datasets, often overlook differences that are subtle or arise in only a subset of molecules. Direct comparison of crystallographic datasets is, in principle, more powerful, but systematic errors (“scales”) often mask changes in the crystallographic observables (“structure factors”). Machine learning algorithms that jointly estimate scales and structure factors can address this limitation. Here, we augment this approach with multivariate, structured priors derived from crystallographic theory, implemented in the variational deep learning framework Careless. Doing so strongly improves the detection of protein dynamics, element-specific anomalous signals, and the binding of drug candidates, offering a robust approach to comparative crystallography and, potentially, to detection of protein dynamics by other structure determination methods.

Hekstra, Doeke R. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (U↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-D-201-03: During-Treatment Delivery Monitoring System for TomoTherapy

Purpose: Multiple error pathways can lead to delivery errors during the treatment course that cannot be caught with pre-treatment QA. While in vivo solutions are being developed for linacs, no such solution exists for tomotherapy. The purpose of this study is to develop a near real-time system for tomotherapy that can monitor the delivery and dose accumulation process during the treatment-delivery, which enable the user to assess the impact of delivery variations and/or errors and to interrupt the treatment if necessary. Methods: A program running on a tomotherapy planning station fetches the raw DAS data during treatment. Exit detector data is extracted as well as output, gantry angle, and other machine parameters. For each sample, the MLC open-close state is determined. The delivered plan is compared with the original plan via a Monte Carlo dose engine which transports fluence deviations from a pre-treatment Monte Carlo run. A report containing the difference in fluence, dose and DVH statistics is created in html format. This process is repeated until the treatment is completed. Results: Since we only need to compute the dose for the difference in fluence for a few projections each time, dose with 2% statistical uncertainty can be computed in less than 1 second on a 4-core cpu. However, the current bottleneck in this near real-time system is the repeated fetching and processing the growing DAS data file throughout the delivery. The frame rate drops from 10Hz at the beginning of treatment to 5Hz after 3 minutes and to 2Hz after 10 minutes. Conclusion: A during-treatment delivery monitor system has been built to monitor tomotherapy treatments. The system improves patient safety by allowing operators to assess the delivery variations and errors during treatment delivery and adopt appropriate actions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mitigating the noise of DESI mocks using analytic control variates

In order to address fundamental questions related to the expansion history of the Universe and its primordial nature with the next generation of galaxy experiments, we need to model reliably large-scale structure observables such as the correlation function and the power spectrum. Cosmological N-body simulations provide a reference through which we can test our models, but their output suffers from sample variance on large scales. Fortunately, this is the regime where accurate analytic approximations exist. To reduce the variance, which is key to making optimal use of these simulations, we can leverage the accuracy and precision of such analytic descriptions using Control Variates (CV). The power of control variates stems from utilizing inexpensive but highly correlated surrogates of the statistics one wishes to measure. The stronger the correlation between the surrogate and the statistic of interest, the larger the variance reduction delivered by the method. We apply two control variate formulations to mock catalogs generated in anticipation of upcoming data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) to test the robustness of its analysis pipeline. Our CV-reduced measurements offer a factor of 5-10 improvement in the measurement error compared with the raw measurements. We explore the relevant properties of the galaxy samples that dictate this reduction and comment on the improvements we find on some of the derived quantities relevant to Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

α -decay energies of superheavy nuclei: Systematic trends

Background: New superheavy nuclei are often identified through their characteristic α -decay energies, which requires accurate calculations of Q α values. While many Q α predictions are available, little is known about their uncertainties, and this makes it difficult to carry out extrapolations to as-yet-unknown systems. Purpose: This work aims to analyze several models, compare their predictions to available experimental data, and study their performance for the unobserved α-decay chains of 296 120 and 298 120, which are of current experimental interest. Our quantified results will also serve as a benchmark for future, more sophisticated statistical studies. Methods: We use nuclear superfluid density functional theory (DFT) with several Skyrme energy density functionals (EDFs). To estimate systematic model uncertainties, we employ uniform model averaging. Results: We investigated the Q α values for even-even nuclei from Fm to Z = 120 . For well-deformed nuclei between Fm and Ds, we find excellent consistency between different model predictions, and a good agreement with experimental results. For transitional nuclei beyond Ds, intermodel differences grow, resulting in an appreciable systematic error. In particular, our models underestimate Q α for the heaviest nucleus 294 Og. Conclusions The robustness of DFT predictions for well-deformed superheavy nuclei supports the idea of using experimental Q α values, together with theoretical predictions, as reasonable ( Z, A ) indicators. Unfortunately, this identification method is not projected to work well in the region of deformed-to-spherical shape transition as one approaches N = 184 . The use of Q α values in the identification of new superheavy nuclei will benefit greatly from progress in developing both new spectroscopic-quality EDFs and more sophisticated statistical techniques of uncertainty quantification.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

A comparative study of satellite estimation for solar insolation in Albania with ground measurements

The main objective of this study is to compare data provided by Database of NASA with available ground data for regions covered by national meteorological net NASA estimates that their measurements of average daily solar radiation have a root-mean-square deviation RMSD error of 35 W/m{sup 2} (roughly 20% inaccuracy). Unfortunately valid data from meteorological stations for regions of interest are quite rare in Albania. In these cases, use of Solar Radiation Database of NASA would be a satisfactory solution for different case studies. Using a statistical method allows to determine most probable margins between to sources of data. Comparison of mean insulation data provided by NASA with ground data of mean insulation provided by meteorological stations show that ground data for mean insolation results, in all cases, to be underestimated compared with data provided by Database of NASA. Converting factor is 1.149.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA COLORS AND EJECTA VELOCITIES: HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN REGRESSION WITH NON-GAUSSIAN DISTRIBUTIONS

We investigate the statistical dependence of the peak intrinsic colors of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) on their expansion velocities at maximum light, measured from the Si II λ6355 spectral feature. We construct a new hierarchical Bayesian regression model, accounting for the random effects of intrinsic scatter, measurement error, and reddening by host galaxy dust, and implement a Gibbs sampler and deviance information criteria to estimate the correlation. The method is applied to the apparent colors from BVRI light curves and Si II velocity data for 79 nearby SNe Ia. The apparent color distributions of high-velocity (HV) and normal velocity (NV) supernovae exhibit significant discrepancies for B – V and B – R, but not other colors. Hence, they are likely due to intrinsic color differences originating in the B band, rather than dust reddening. The mean intrinsic B – V and B – R color differences between HV and NV groups are 0.06 ± 0.02 and 0.09 ± 0.02 mag, respectively. A linear model finds significant slopes of –0.021 ± 0.006 and –0.030 ± 0.009 mag (10{sup 3} km s{sup –1}){sup –1} for intrinsic B – V and B – R colors versus velocity, respectively. Because the ejecta velocity distribution is skewed toward high velocities, these effects imply non-Gaussian intrinsic color distributions with skewness up to +0.3. Accounting for the intrinsic-color-velocity correlation results in corrections to A{sub V} extinction estimates as large as –0.12 mag for HV SNe Ia and +0.06 mag for NV events. Velocity measurements from SN Ia spectra have the potential to diminish systematic errors from the confounding of intrinsic colors and dust reddening affecting supernova distances.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Fuel Cycle Research & Development: Technical Monthly – June 2012

Topics are: (1) MPACT Campaign - (a) Management and Integration • Coordination meetings between NE and NA-22, NA-24, and NA-82 were conducted the week of June 11th. Preparations are being made for the next MPACT working group meeting, scheduled for Aug 28-30 at Idaho Falls. In addition to covering accomplishments and discussing future plans, a site tour of INL facilities (MFC, EBR, ATR, INTEC) is being organized. (2) Accounting and Control Technologies - (a) Microcalorimetry • Now operating 256-pixel array at LANL. We are in the process of tuning detector parameters to improve and optimize performance. Preliminary measurements show approximate number of live pixels is similar to that observed previously at NIST. Continuing to study contribution to systematic error from uncertainties in tabulated gamma-ray energies. (b) Electrochemical Sensor • Testing of sensors fashioned from different precursor materials continued. SEM analysis of all used sensors has been or will be performed. (c) Lead Slowing Down Spectrometer • Ongoing perturbation calculations are providing information on the fundamental systematic error limits of LSDS. In order to achieve separating the contribution of Pu and 235U to the signal, there will need to be tight controls on systematic errors. Continuing to look into a He4 detector. Research into local construction of a He4 detector continued. We have started to apply the algorithm to test the LSDS using experimental data from previous RPI measurements. PNNL also developed a plan to address the lack of statistics in the MCNP modeling of the NGSI 64 assemblies. The ISU graduate student built and tested a fission chamber to gain experience with them. (d) Fast Neutron Imaging to Quantify Nuclear Materials • The imaging detector design was modified for each pixel to have an 8 x 8 pixel array. Quotations and purchasing process for components, including the new PSD scintillator are in progress. (e) Fast Neutron Multiplicity Analysis • The team submitted two papers to the upcoming INMM meeting that are related to the fast neutron multiplicity R&D effort. Progress was made on the project's main goal of designing a concept for a prototype fast-neutron multiplicity counter. We started laying out the outline for the final report. We have been working with our ORNL collaborators to develop a new digitizer system to support our experimental campaign planned for next year. (3) MPACT Analysis Tools - (a) Multi-isotope Process Monitor • Fuel characterization framework development continued during June. A report describing the methodologies is being completed. Kenneth Dayman, from University of Texas, spent a week at PNNL wrapping up his master's research and working on a journal submission covering that work. The target journal is the IEEE transactions on Nuclear Science; submission is planned for the end of July. A proposal to instrument H-Canyon is being prepared in conjunction with SRNL and the NNSA's NGSI program. The impact of gamma-ray spectrum counting statistics on the precision of relative radioisotope component intensities as reconstructed via Principal Component Regression (PCR) continued in June with Monte Carlo simulations of a two-component (i.e., two radioisotope) system. This work generalizes earlier studies in FY12 in which Poisson counting variations of only a single spectrum component were simulated. (b) Modeling and Simulation for Analysis of Safeguards Performance (Electrochemical) • Preliminary insights into safeguards challenges and the initial design for an electrochemical plant have been written up into an INMM paper and will be presented at the INMM Summer Meeting. Work is currently adding a new visualization capability for integrating materials accountancy with physical protection. (c) Material Control including Process Monitoring (Pattern Recognition, Sensors) • Fabrication of quartz chips continued at an external foundry. Awaiting delivery of the heat exchange manifold and chip holder. (d) MPACT System Integration and Technical Support • The initial report on cost-basis metrics for nuclear material security risk and proliferation risk was completed as scheduled. (4) Safeguards and Security by Design - (a) Used fuels storage security analysis, guidance and best practices • RFP was finalized and sent out. Awaiting response from World Institute for Nuclear Security. Coordinated with Scott Demuth on joint report • LANL milestone on best practices. Attended Nuclear Energy Institute National Nuclear Security Conference. Developed plan for soliciting input on prioritized issues for used fuel storage security. Worked on setting up a meeting with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Worked on FY2013 work package planning.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2014

A Method for the Quantification of Model Form Error Associated with Physical Systems

In the process of model validation, models are often declared valid when the differences between model predictions and experimental data sets are satisfactorily small. However, little consideration is given to the effectiveness of a model using parameters that deviate slightly from those that were fitted to data, such as a higher load level. Furthermore, few means exist to compare and choose between two or more models that reproduce data equally well. These issues can be addressed by analyzing model form error, which is the error associated with the differences between the physical phenomena captured by models and that of the real system. This report presents a new quantitative method for model form error analysis and applies it to data taken from experiments on tape joint bending vibrations. Two models for the tape joint system are compared, and suggestions for future improvements to the method are given. As the available data set is too small to draw any statistical conclusions, the focus of this paper is the development of a methodology that can be applied to general problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cladding Profilometry Analysis of Experimental Breeder Reactor-II Metallic Fuel Pins with HT9, D9, and SS316 Cladding

BISON finite element method fuel performance simulations were conducted using an existing automated process that couples the Fuels Irradiation & Physics Database (FIPD) and the Integral Fast Reactor Materials Information System database by writing input files and comparing the BISON output to post-irradiation fuel pin profilometry measurements contained within the databases. The importance of this work is to demonstrate the ability to benchmark fuel performance metallic fuel models within BISON using Experimental Breeder Reactor-II fuel pin data for a number of similar pins, while building off previous modeling efforts. Changes to the generic BISON input file include implementing pin specific axial power and flux profiles, pin specific fluences, frictional contact, and irradiation-induced volumetric swelling models for cladding. A statistical analysis of irradiation-induced volumetric swelling models for HT9, D9, and SS316 was performed for experiments X421/X421A, X441/X441A, and X486. Between these three experiments, there were 174 post-irradiation examination (PIE) profilometries used for validating the swelling models presented using a standard error of the estimate (SEE) method. Implementation of the volumetric swelling models for D9 and SS316 claddings was found to have a significant impact on the BISON profilometry simulated, where HT9 clad pins had an insignificant change due to low fluence values. BISON profilometry simulated for HT9, D9, and SS316 fuel pins agreed with PIE profilometry measurements, with assembly SEE values being 4.4 × 10−3 for X421A, 2.0 × 10−3 for X441A, and 2.8 × 10−3 for X486. D9 clad pins in X421/X421A had the highest SEE values, which is due to the BISON simulated profilometry being shifted axially. While this work accomplished its purpose to demonstrate the modeling of multiple fuel pins from the databases to help validate models, the results suggest that the continued development of metallic fuel models is necessary for qualifying new metallic fuel systems to better capture some physical performance phenomena, such as the hot pressing of U-Pu-Zr and the fuel cladding chemical interaction.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of the Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization Lensing Power Spectrum from Two Years of POLARBEAR Data

Here, we present a measurement of the gravitational lensing deflection power spectrum reconstructed with two seasons of cosmic microwave background polarization data from the Polarbear experiment. Observations were taken at 150 GHz from 2012 to 2014 and surveyed three patches of sky totaling 30 square degrees. We test the consistency of the lensing spectrum with a cold dark matter cosmology and reject the no-lensing hypothesis at a confidence of 10.9σ, including statistical and systematic uncertainties. We observe a value of A L = 1.33 ± 0.32 (statistical) ±0.02 (systematic) ±0.07 (foreground) using all polarization lensing estimators, which corresponds to a 24% accurate measurement of the lensing amplitude. Compared to the analysis of the first-year data, we have improved the breadth of both the suite of null tests and the error terms included in the estimation of systematic contamination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reconstructing Ly$α$ Fields from Low-resolution Hydrodynamical Simulations with Deep Learning

Hydrodynamical cosmological simulations are a powerful tool for accurately predicting the properties of the intergalactic medium (IGM) and for producing mock skies that can be compared against observational data. However, the need to resolve density fluctuation in the IGM puts a stringent requirement on the resolution of such simulations, which in turn limits the volumes that can be modeled, even on the most powerful supercomputers. In this work, we present a novel modeling method that combines physics-driven simulations with data-driven generative neural networks to produce outputs that are qualitatively and statistically close to the outputs of hydrodynamical simulations employing eight times higher resolution. We show that the Ly$α$ flux field, as well as the underlying hydrodynamic fields, have greatly improved statistical fidelity over a low-resolution simulation. Importantly, the design of our neural network allows for sampling multiple realizations from a given input, enabling us to quantify the model uncertainty. Using test data, we demonstrate that this model uncertainty correlates well with the true error of the Ly$α$ flux prediction. Ultimately, our approach allows for training on small simulation volumes and applying it to much larger ones, opening the door to producing accurate Ly$α$ mock skies in volumes of Hubble size, as will be probed with DESI and future spectroscopic sky surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Novel multimodality segmentation using level sets and Jensen-Rényi divergence

Purpose: Positron emission tomography (PET) is playing an increasing role in radiotherapy treatment planning. However, despite progress, robust algorithms for PET and multimodal image segmentation are still lacking, especially if the algorithm were extended to image-guided and adaptive radiotherapy (IGART). This work presents a novel multimodality segmentation algorithm using the Jensen-Rényi divergence (JRD) to evolve the geometric level set contour. The algorithm offers improved noise tolerance which is particularly applicable to segmentation of regions found in PET and cone-beam computed tomography. Methods: A steepest gradient ascent optimization method is used in conjunction with the JRD and a level set active contour to iteratively evolve a contour to partition an image based on statistical divergence of the intensity histograms. The algorithm is evaluated using PET scans of pharyngolaryngeal squamous cell carcinoma with the corresponding histological reference. The multimodality extension of the algorithm is evaluated using 22 PET/CT scans of patients with lung carcinoma and a physical phantom scanned under varying image quality conditions. Results: The average concordance index (CI) of the JRD segmentation of the PET images was 0.56 with an average classification error of 65%. The segmentation of the lung carcinoma images had a maximum diameter relative error of 63%, 19.5%, and 14.8% when using CT, PET, and combined PET/CT images, respectively. The estimated maximal diameters of the gross tumor volume (GTV) showed a high correlation with the macroscopically determined maximal diameters, with aR{sup 2} value of 0.85 and 0.88 using the PET and PET/CT images, respectively. Results from the physical phantom show that the JRD is more robust to image noise compared to mutual information and region growing. Conclusions: The JRD has shown improved noise tolerance compared to mutual information for the purpose of PET image segmentation. Presented is a flexible framework for multimodal image segmentation that can incorporate a large number of inputs efficiently for IGART.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating User Errors and Temporal Trends in Marine Fish Communities Using 360-Degree Underwater Photography

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has been proposed as a complementary method to monitor fish species in marine environments, offering a non-invasive and potentially more efficient approach to marine species observations. eDNA monitoring could be especially useful in and around sites targeted for marine energy generation as these regions need regular monitoring that would be impractical with traditional techniques. Before we can fully rely upon eDNA, we must first verify its accuracy against other proven methods, such as the use of underwater photography. In this study, I deployed a 360-degree camera in the tidal channel of Sequim Bay once a month during several hours overlapping slack tide. I investigated how having multiple people identify and count fish on underwater images could affect the overall results. Using chi square tests in R, I compared my fish identifications and counts to those made by another intern on the same images recorded in August. I found significant differences in the number of species identified and the total individual counts between the two different datasets. I also tested the statistical differences in both Shannon diversity and Pielou evenness indices between the August, September, and November camera deployments using a Hutcheson t-test. Only one significant difference was found in the Shannon index comparisons, and none were found between the Pielou evenness comparisons. These findings show that if multiple identifiers are used to process underwater images, quality control checks must be made to reduce the potential for error. This also points toward the possibility to leverage more advanced image analysis processes, such as automated image analysis software. The findings from this study also show that the dynamics of marine fish communities can vary over a few months; however, further analysis is needed to determine the extent of the seasonal changes in Sequim Bay.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Diurnal Cycle of Clouds and Precipitation at the ARM SGP Site: An Atmospheric State-Based Analysis and Error Decomposition of a Multiscale Modeling Framework Simulation

Long–term reflectivity data collected by a millimeter cloud radar at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site are used to examine the diurnal cycle of clouds and precipitation and are compared with the diurnal cycle simulated by a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) climate model. The study uses a set of atmospheric states that were created specifically for the SGP and for the purpose of investigating under what synoptic conditions models compare well with observations on a statistical basis (rather than using case studies or seasonal or longer time scale averaging). Differences in the annual mean diurnal cycle between observations and the MMF are decomposed into differences due to the relative frequency of states, the daily mean vertical profile of hydrometeor occurrence, and the (normalized) diurnal variation of hydrometeors in each state. Here the hydrometeors are classified as cloud or precipitation based solely on the reflectivity observed by a millimeter radar or generated by a radar simulator. The results show that the MMF does not capture the diurnal variation of low clouds well in any of the states but does a reasonable job capturing the diurnal variations of high clouds and precipitation in some states. In particular, the diurnal variations in states that occur during summer are reasonably captured by the MMF, while the diurnal variations in states that occur during the transition seasons (spring and fall) are not well captured. Overall, the errors in the annual composite are due primarily to errors in the daily mean of hydrometeor occurrence (rather than diurnal variations), but errors in the state frequency (that is, the distribution of weather states in the model) also play a significant role.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗