Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Multiphenomenology explosion monitoring (MultiPEM): a general framework for data interpretation and yield estimation

SUMMARY An underground nuclear explosion (UNE) couples mechanical energy into crustal rock, which propagates as seismic and acoustic waves. These different physical phenomena transport, by different pathways, to standoff detectors at varying distances. The transport pathways attenuate the original signal but in different ways. Enabled by correct statistical weighting, signal attenuation models can be used to combine these disparate sensor data to estimate the yield of an UNE. Contemporaneous statistical models, used in yield estimation, can be improved with an advanced partition of error for these physical signal propagation models. We present an advanced multivariate approach to error modelling of multiphenomenology physical signatures. In addition to measurement error, our error model represents physical model biases as random with a physics-based covariance structure. To illustrate this proposed framework, we demonstrate the estimation of explosion yield using openly available seismic and acoustic data from chemical single-point explosions.

Williams, Brian J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating image coaddition with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope – II. Analysis of the simulated images and implications for weak lensing

One challenge for applying current weak lensing analysis tools to the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is that individual images will be undersampled. Our companion paper presented an initial application of Imcom – an algorithm that builds an optimal mapping from input to output pixels to reconstruct a fully sampled combined image – on the Roman image simulations. In this paper, we measure the output noise power spectra, identify the sources of the major features in the power spectra, and show that simple analytic models that ignore sampling effects underestimate the power spectra of the coadded noise images. We compute the moments of both idealized injected stars and fully simulated stars in the coadded images, and their one- and two-point statistics. We show that the idealized injected stars have root-mean-square ellipticity errors (1–6) × 10 -4 per component depending on the band; the correlation functions are ≥2 orders of magnitude below requirements, indicating that the image combination step itself is using a small fraction of the overall Roman second moment error budget, although the fourth moments are larger and warrant further investigation. The stars in the simulated sky images, which include blending and chromaticity effects, have correlation functions near the requirement level (and below the requirement level in a wide-band image constructed by stacking all four filters). We evaluate the noise-induced biases in the ellipticities of injected stars, and explain the resulting trends with an analytical model. We conclude by enumerating the next steps in developing an image coaddition pipeline for Roman.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Bayesian approach to model-based extrapolation of nuclear observables

Here, we considered 10 global models based on nuclear density functional theory with realistic energy density functionals as well as two more phenomenological mass models. The emulators of two-neutron separation energy residuals and Bayesian confidence intervals defining theoretical error bars were constructed using Bayesian Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks. By establishing statistical methodology and parameters, we carried out extrapolations toward the two-neutron dripline. While both Gaussian processes (GP) and Bayesian neural networks reduce the root-mean-square (rms) deviation from experiment significantly, GP offers a better and much more stable performance. The increase in the predictive power of microscopic models aided by the statistical treatment is quite astonishing: The resulting rms deviations from experiment on the testing dataset are similar to those of more phenomenological models. The estimated credibility intervals on predictions make it possible to evaluate predictive power of individual models and also make quantified predictions using groups of models. The proposed robust statistical approach to extrapolation of nuclear model results can be useful for assessing the impact of current and future experiments in the context of model developments. The new Bayesian capability to evaluate residuals is also expected to impact research in the domains where experiments are currently impossible, for instance, in simulations of the astrophysical r process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

An Optical and Infrared Photometric Study of the Young Open Cluster IC 1805 in the Giant H ii Region W4{sup †}

We present deep wide-field optical CCD photometry and mid-infrared Spitzer/IRAC and MIPS 24 μm data for about 100,000 stars in the young open cluster IC 1805. The members of IC 1805 were selected from their location in the various color–color and color–magnitude diagrams, and the presence of Hα emission, mid-infrared excess emission, and X-ray emission. The reddening law toward IC 1805 is nearly normal (R {sub V} = 3.05 ± 0.06). However, the distance modulus of the cluster is estimated to be 11.9 ± 0.2 mag (d=2.4±0.2 kpc) from the reddening-free color–magnitude diagrams, which is larger than the distance to the nearby massive star-forming region W3(OH) measured from the radio VLBA astrometry. We also determined the age of IC 1805 (τ{sub MSTO}=3.5 Myr). In addition, we critically compared the age and mass scale from two pre-main-sequence evolution models. The initial mass function with a Salpeter-type slope of Γ = −1.3 ± 0.2 was obtained and the total mass of IC 1805 was estimated to be about 2700 ± 200 M{sub ⊙}. Finally, we found our distance determination to be statistically consistent with the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution Data Release 1, within the errors. The proper motion of the B-type stars shows an elongated distribution along the Galactic plane, which could be explained by some of the B-type stars being formed in small clouds dispersed by previous episodes of star formation or supernova explosions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of obstacle modelling approaches for resource assessment and small wind turbine siting: case study in the northern Netherlands

Abstract. Growth in adoption of distributed wind turbines for energy generation is significantly impacted by challenges associated with siting and accurate estimation of the wind resource. Small turbines, at hub heights of 40 m or less, are greatly impacted by terrestrial obstacles such as built structures and vegetation that can cause complex wake effects. While some progress in high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models has increased the potential accuracy for modelling the impacts of obstacles on turbulent wind flow, these models are too computationally expensive for practical siting and resource assessment applications. To understand the efficacy of available models in situ, this study evaluates classic and commonly used methods alongside new state-of-the-art lower-order models derived from CFD simulations and machine learning approaches. This evaluation is conducted using a subset of an extensive original dataset of measurements from more than 300 operational wind turbines in the northern Netherlands. The results show that data-driven methods (e.g. machine learning and statistical modelling) are most effective at predicting production at real sites with an average error in annual energy production of 2.5 %. When sufficient data may not be available de novo to support these data-driven approaches, models derived from high-fidelity simulations show promise and reliably outperform classic methods. On average these models have 6.3 %–11.5 % error compared with 26 % for classic methods and 27 % baseline error for reanalysis data without obstacle correction. While more performant on average, these methods are also sensitive to the quality of obstacle descriptions and reanalysis inputs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1972

Digital image registration by correlation techniques.

This study considers the translation problem associated with digital image registration and develops a means for comparing commonly used correlation techniques. Using suitably defined constraints, an optimum and four suboptimum registration techniques are defined and evaluated. A computational comparison is made and Gaussian image statistics are used to compare the selected techniques in terms of radial position location error.

Popp, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Use of Whatman-41 filters in air quality sampling networks (with applications to elemental analysis)

The operation of a 16-site parallel high volume air sampling network with glass fiber filters on one unit and Whatman-41 filters on the other is reported. The network data and data from several other experiments indicate that (1) Sampler-to-sampler and filter-to-filter variabilities are small; (2) hygroscopic affinity of Whatman-41 filters need not introduce errors; and (3) suspended particulate samples from glass fiber filters averaged slightly, but not statistically significantly, higher than from Whatman-41-filters. The results obtained demonstrate the practicability of Whatman-41 filters for air quality monitoring and elemental analysis.

Neustadter, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Separation of man-made and natural patterns in high-altitude imagery of agricultural areas

A nonstationary linear digital filter is designed and implemented which extracts the natural features from high-altitude imagery of agricultural areas. Essentially, from an original image a new image is created which displays information related to soil properties, drainage patterns, crop disease, and other natural phenomena, and contains no information about crop type or row spacing. A model is developed to express the recorded brightness in a narrow-band image in terms of man-made and natural contributions and which describes statistically the spatial properties of each. The form of the minimum mean-square error linear filter for estimation of the natural component of the scene is derived and a suboptimal filter is implemented. Nonstationarity of the two-dimensional random processes contained in the model requires a unique technique for deriving the optimum filter. Finally, the filter depends on knowledge of field boundaries. An algorithm for boundary location is proposed, discussed, and implemented.

Samulon, A. S.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Advanced Meteorological Temperature Sounder (AMTS) simulations

Simulation studies are reported on temperature retrievals from AMTS and their effect on atmospheric analysis. Observations are simulated from radiosonde reports and observed cloud cover. Temperature retrievals are performed and RMS temperature and thickness errors are calculated relative to the radiosonde profiles and compared to similarly generated HIRS statistics. Significant improvement over HIRS is found throughout the atmosphere but especially in the stratosphere and lower troposphere.

Susskin, J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Computer program to minimize prediction error in models from experiments with 16 hypercube points and 0 to 6 center points

A previous report described a backward deletion procedure of model selection that was optimized for minimum prediction error and which used a multiparameter combination of the F - distribution and an order statistics distribution of Cochran's. A computer program is described that applies the previously optimized procedure to real data. The use of the program is illustrated by examples.

Holms, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1984

State estimation Kalman filter using optical processings Noise statistics known

Reference is made to a study by Casasent et al. (1983), which gave a description of a frequency-multiplexed acoustooptic processor and showed how it was capable of performing all the individual operations required in Kalman filtering. The data flow and organization of all required operations however, were not detailed in that study. Consideration is given here to a simpler Kalman filter state estimation problem. Equally spaced time-sampled intervals (k times T sub s, with k the iterative time index) are assumed. It is further assumed that the system noise vector w and the measurement noise vector v are uncorrelated and Gaussian distributed and that the noise statistics (Q and R) and the system model (Phi, Gamma, H) are known. The error covariance matrix P and the extrapolated error covariance matrix M can thus be precomputed and the Kalman gain matrix K sub k can be precomputed and stored for each input time sample.

Jackson, J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

VLBI Solutions for the Time Variation of DSN Baselines: 1978 - 1983

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) results are presented for the two baseline sectors between the Goldstone DSN antenna complex and the overseas sites at Canberra, Australia and Madrid, Spain. Results from solutions using data taken between 1978 September and 1983 May show an apparent California-Spain baseline length increase of 21 cm during this time span, while the California-Australia length has remained constant. Statistical investigations of the integrity of the data are discussed along with dominant systematic error sources and their effect on baseline length determination. Results and interpretation of the time behavior of the angle between DSN baselines are also described.

Treuhaft, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Identification of dynamic systems, theory and formulation

The problem of estimating parameters of dynamic systems is addressed in order to present the theoretical basis of system identification and parameter estimation in a manner that is complete and rigorous, yet understandable with minimal prerequisites. Maximum likelihood and related estimators are highlighted. The approach used requires familiarity with calculus, linear algebra, and probability, but does not require knowledge of stochastic processes or functional analysis. The treatment emphasizes unification of the various areas in estimation in dynamic systems is treated as a direct outgrowth of the static system theory. Topics covered include basic concepts and definitions; numerical optimization methods; probability; statistical estimators; estimation in static systems; stochastic processes; state estimation in dynamic systems; output error, filter error, and equation error methods of parameter estimation in dynamic systems, and the accuracy of the estimates.

Maine, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Hex-square moire patterns in imagers using microchannel plates

In electronic imaging detectors using microchannel plates, the mismatch between the pixels on a square mesh and the microchannels on a hexagonal mesh produces moire image defects. Theoretical statistical estimates of the sizes of the microposition offsets and the flat field intensity errors are calculated, showing the trade-off between resolution and position accuracy. A distinction is made between moments of spot images and moments of the single-pixel-response functions. As the resolution between the hex and square meshes is improved, the detector resolution is improved, but at the expense of an about 10 percent moire pattern. These moire patterns will not be properly corrected by dividing by the flat field image.

Lawrence, George M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The first Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer source catalog

The Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) has conducted an all-sky survey to locate and identify point sources of emission in four extreme ultraviolet wavelength bands centered at approximately 100, 200, 400, and 600 A. A companion deep survey of a strip along half the ecliptic plane was simultaneously conducted. In this catalog we report the sources found in these surveys using rigorously defined criteria uniformly applied to the data set. These are the first surveys to be made in the three longer wavelength bands, and a substantial number of sources were detected in these bands. We present a number of statistical diagnostics of the surveys, including their source counts, their sensitivites, and their positional error distributions. We provide a separate list of those sources reported in the EUVE Bright Source List which did not meet our criteria for inclusion in our primary list. We also provide improved count rate and position estimates for a majority of these sources based on the improved methodology used in this paper. In total, this catalog lists a total of 410 point sources, of which 372 have plausible optical ultraviolet, or X-ray identifications, which are also listed.

Bowyer, S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Can Assimilation of Satellite Ozone Data Contribute to the Understanding of the Lower Stratospheric Ozone?

We study the quality of lower stratospheric ozone fields from a three- dimensional global ozone assimilation system. Ozone in this region is important for the forcing of climate, but its global distribution is not fully known because of its large temporal and vertical variability. Modeled fields often have biases due to the inaccurate representation of transport processes in this region with strong gradients. Accurate ozonesonde or satellite occultation measurements have very limited coverage. Nadir measurements, such as those from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument that provide wide latitudinal coverage, lack the vertical resolution needed to represent sharp vertical features. Limb measurements, such as those from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), provide a finer vertical resolution. We show that assimilation of MIPAS data in addition to SBUV/2 data leads to better estimates of ozone in comparison with independent high quality satellite, aircraft, and ozone sonde measurements. Other modifications to the statistical analysis that have an impact on the lower stratospheric ozone will be mentioned: error covariance modeling and data selection. Direct and indirect impacts of transport and chemistry models will be discussed. Implications for multi-year analyses and short-tern prediction will be addressed.

Stajner, I.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Dynamic Tunnel Usability Study: Format Recommendations for Synthetic Vision System Primary Flight Displays

A usability study evaluating dynamic tunnel concepts has been completed under the Aviation Safety and Security Program, Synthetic Vision Systems Project. The usability study was conducted in the Visual Imaging Simulator for Transport Aircraft Systems (VISTAS) III simulator in the form of questionnaires and pilot-in-the-loop simulation sessions. Twelve commercial pilots participated in the study to determine their preferences via paired comparisons and subjective rankings regarding the color, line thickness and sensitivity of the dynamic tunnel. The results of the study showed that color was not significant in pilot preference paired comparisons or in pilot rankings. Line thickness was significant for both pilot preference paired comparisons and in pilot rankings. The preferred line/halo thickness combination was a line width of 3 pixels and a halo of 4 pixels. Finally, pilots were asked their preference for the current dynamic tunnel compared to a less sensitive dynamic tunnel. The current dynamic tunnel constantly gives feedback to the pilot with regard to path error while the less sensitive tunnel only changes as the path error approaches the edges of the tunnel. The tunnel sensitivity comparison results were not statistically significant.

Arthur, Jarvis J., III↗