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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of energy-efficiency upgrades and other distributed energy resources on a residential neighborhood-scale electrification retrofit

We report ambitious targets for carbon emissions reductions are highlighting new challenges for electrification strategies, leading to an increased focus on building load flexibility and energy management to complement the variability inherent in renewable energy generation. Over the next decade millions of existing homes could undergo electrification retrofits, and there is an urgent need to understand the potential impacts of electrifying major residential loads such as water and space heating on community load characteristics, resident energy bills, and the utility's distribution system. Behind-the-meter distributed energy resources (DERs), including efficiency measures, photovoltaics (PV), battery storage, managed electric vehicle (EV) charging, and controls such as home energy management systems (HEMS), can significantly alter a neighborhood's load profile and provide benefits to both the residents and the grid. We present a novel approach to characterizing the impact of a hypothetical neighborhood-scale residential retrofit program on individual homes' energy use profiles, associated utility bills, and the local distribution system. We modeled a mixed-fuel community of 30 single-family homes in Denver, Colorado, and compared the effects of retrofit scenarios ranging from conventional energy-efficiency upgrades to full electrification with and without more advanced DER technologies. We analyzed which packages of DERs most reliably enable demand flexibility in response to a time-of-use (TOU) rate for this and similar neighborhoods. Our buildings-to-grid co-simulation framework includes a generic secondary distribution feeder model to capture voltage profiles, transformer loading, and other grid impacts in each case. We also calculated the carbon emissions associated with energy use in the community. The methodology developed here can be broadly applied to community-scale beneficial electrification studies in other regions, climates, utility infrastructures, and building typologies to make specific, targeted recommendations based on quantified projections of energy demand in any given community. Our findings indicate that residential electrification can be achieved without negatively impacting the monthly utility bill, and that a combination of conventional energy-efficiency measures, PV, battery, controls, and managed EV charging to maximize a community's demand flexibility is a promising strategy. Adding DERs (especially PV) as part of efficient electrification produces much bigger savings than efficient electrification without DERs. A key barrier is that upgrades require upfront costs, and modest utility bill savings result in long payback periods.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temporal performance indicators for an integrated pilot-scale membrane distillation-concentrated solar power/photovoltaic system

Management of concentrate streams in inland applications has uncertain long-term environmental impacts. This study investigates an intensified solar-energy capture desalination system that integrates membrane distillation (MD) with a hybrid concentrated solar power (CSP)/photovoltaic (PV) collector to realize self-sustained zero-waste discharge for effective management of concentrate streams in inland and off-grid applications. The demonstration-scale CSP/PV system can produce up to 178 kWh of thermal energy and 4 kWh of electrical energy per day. The thermal and electrical energy from the CSP/PV system is directly supplied to the air gap MD (AGMD) pilot-scale system producing up to 288 L of distilled water per day. Experiments were performed on the hybrid AGMD-CSP/PV system to evaluate system performance under various operating conditions including AGMD and CSP flow rates, CSP system pre-heating, and AGMD vacuum pressure. Experimental results indicate that doubling the AGMD flow rate results in a 119% increase in thermal energy utilization and a 71% increase in distillate production. Compared to the winter months, operating the system in summer months when direct normal irradiance (DNI) is highest results in nearly double the distillate production (88 L in winter and 168 L in summer) and nearly three times the amount of thermal energy consumption (15 kWh in winter and 43 kWh in summer). Operating with vacuum resulted in a 34% increase in distillate production and allowing the thermal storage reservoir to preheat in the winter resulted in a 61% increase in distillate production. Altogether, experimental results highlight the tradeoff between distillate production and thermal and electrical energy production and consumption under various environmental conditions and the potential for AGMD-CSP/PV to be a stand-alone desalination system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental investigation of advanced turbine control strategies and load-mitigation measures with a model-scale floating offshore wind turbine system

To advance the control co-design of offshore wind energy systems, the authors perform basin-scale experiments with a fully instrumented and actuated floating offshore wind turbine model. The model consists of a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme 15-MW reference turbine atop the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. The Reference OpenSource Controller provides real-time blade pitch and generator torque control. Here we aim to develop an open data set for the validation of numerical models in predicting the influence of turbine control and load-mitigation measures. For this purpose, we measure the effects of advanced turbine control features, including peak shaving and floating feedback as well as hull-based control using tuned mass dampers on the system. Overall, the results demonstrate measurable and consistent influences from the control and load-mitigation measures, thus confirming the usefulness as a validation data set. Peak shaving attenuates the response to wind turbulence at near-rated wind speed. Floating feedback reduces the load and platform pitch motion associated with the negative damping induced by blade pitch control. The tuned mass dampers also attenuate the system response near the targeted frequencies under suitable conditions. We also identify detrimental side effects of each load-mitigation measure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lime slurry treatment of soils developing on abandoned coal mine spoil: Linking contaminant transport from the micrometer to pedon-scale

Historical and abandoned coal mine spoil continues to generate acid- and metal(loid)-rich porewaters and represents a geographically large and diffuse non-point source of contamination to local watersheds. A potentially inexpensive approach to treat these materials and soils developing on them is through the application of lime slurries, to neutralize acidity and encourage the (co)precipitation of metal(loids) with Fe(III)-(oxy)hydroxides, and potentially other metal-oxides and/or Ca-bearing phases. Here, the efficacy of this approach was evaluated through parallel field application and laboratory-based flow-through column experiments. The field site is Huff Run sub-watershed 25 located in Tuscarawas County, Ohio and was chosen in part because it was previously classified as one of the most highly AMD-impacted sub-watersheds in the region. Two locations with historical spoil were chosen and suction lysimeters were installed at 25 and 75 cm depth to monitor porewater composition on two sides at the base of each pile. Half of each slope received seven lime slurry treatments from June through October of 2017. A suite of aqueous (ICP-OES, IC, and TOC-L) and solid phase geochemical and mineralogical approaches (quantitative SEM-EDS and synchrotron μ-XRF) were used to determine how composition, texture, morphology, and spatial distribution of mineral coatings differ in pre- and post-lime treated soils, and how that impacts the distribution and transport of trace metal(loid)s. Mine spoil porewater at site 1 was slightly less alkaline (pH ranging from 7.04 to 7.37) than at site 2 (ranging from 7.55 to 7.71), and average electrical conductivity values at site 1 (316–405 μS cm —1 ) were slightly lower than at site 2 (358–464 μS cm —1 ), although differences between the sites were not significant. Porewater pH and electrical conductivity in all lysimeters decreased over the course of the field season but there was no obvious response to lime treatment at either site or any depth. At site 1, both treatment and depth were significant factors affecting Ca, K, Ni, SO 4 2— , and DOC concentrations while only treatment effects were significant for dissolved Al and Cu (p < 0.05). For all soils, there were no trends in metal concentration observed over time although DOC and SO 4 2— decreased over the field season. Pedon-scale changes in metal porewater concentrations in response to treatment were linked to micrometer-scale changes in mineral surface coatings; specifically, higher concentrations of Ca, Fe, Mn, and Zn were observed in the coatings and no changes were observed in Fe redox speciation, whereas total S decreased likely due to oxidation of S in coal fragments. In contrast to the field experiment, the column experiments exhibited a much greater response in effluent composition with respect to lime treatment. The untreated columns had approximately an order of magnitude more H + leached over the course of the experiment (p < 0.001) and resulted in greater Ca, Al, Cu, and DIC leached and less Mn, Zn, and SO 4 2— . Soils treated with the lime slurry in the column experiments exhibited larger and thicker secondary Fe-coatings, including the addition of Fe-sulfates. Despite clear trends in the laboratory-based column experiment where the lime-to-soil ratio was higher, the effects were either muted or undetected in the field pilot project, suggesting that a higher application rate of lime in the field is needed to achieve a similar effect. This work provides evidence that a less alkaline lime slurry could be a practical and inexpensive method of treating coal mine spoil-impacted soils and represents an important step in linking laboratory-based remediation studies to implemented field-based studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Italian prototype building models for urban scale building performance simulation

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) seeks to evaluate strategies to optimize building energy use at urban scale to support a city's building energy goals. Prototype building models are usually developed to represent typical urban building characteristics of a specific use type, construction year, and climate zone, as detailed characteristics of individual buildings at urban scale are difficult to obtain. This study investigated the Italian building stock, developing 46 building prototypes, based on construction year, for residential and office buildings. The study included 16 single-family buildings, 16 multi-family buildings, and 14 office buildings. Building envelope properties and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system characteristics were defined according to existing building energy codes and standards for climatic zone E, which covers about half the Italian municipalities. Novel contributions of this study include (1) detailed specifications of prototype building energy models for Italian residential and office buildings that can be adopted by UBEM tools, and (2) a dataset in GeoJSON format of Italian urban buildings compiled from diverse data sources and national standards. Finally, the developed prototype building specifications, the building dataset, and the workflow can be applied to create other building prototypes and to support Italian national building energy efficiency and environmental goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

A macro-scale ruck and tuck mechanism for deformation in ion-irradiated polycrystalline graphite

A vein structure, which becomes more pronounced with increasing ion dose, was found on the surface of polycrystalline HOPG (highly oriented pyrolytic graphite) implanted by ex situ C + (up to 1.8 × 10 17 ions/cm 2 ), and in situ Ar + in a transmission electron microscope (TEM). These veins are found to be independent of the crystallographic orientations and are associated with the formation of pores. Underneath the veins, a triangular-shaped core was formed with the graphite platelet inside the core displaced up towards the surface. A macro-scale ‘ruck&tuck’ geometry was thus generated at these triangle structure boundaries. Progressive movement of dislocations along basal planes during irradiation was observed, and a mechanistic model was proposed on this basis to explain the vein formation. A small increase of c-spacing was observed with irradiation but it is believed that macro-scale vein formation plays a more vital role in the dimensional and property changes in polycrystalline graphite, especially when a stress gradient is present. Here, the model proposed also explains the change of thermal expansion in HOPG with irradiation. Together with Heggie’s ‘ruck&tuck’ and Barsoum’s ‘ripplocations’ models, the present model is considered to have provided an additional experimentally proven mechanism responsible for irradiation behaviour in graphite materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Doping transition-metal atoms in graphene for atomic-scale tailoring of electronic, magnetic, and quantum topological properties

Atomic-scale fabrication is an outstanding challenge and overarching goal for the nanoscience community. The practical implementation of moving and fixing atoms to a structure is non-trivial considering that one must spatially address the positioning of single atoms, provide a stabilizing scaffold to hold structures in place, and understand the details of their chemical bonding. Free-standing graphene offers a simplified platform for the development of atomic-scale fabrication and the focused electron beam in a scanning transmission electron microscope can be used to locally induce defects and sculpt the graphene. In this scenario, the graphene forms the stabilizing scaffold and the experimental question is whether a range of dopant atoms can be attached and incorporated into the lattice using a single technique and, from a theoretical perspective, we would like to know which dopants will create technologically interesting properties. Here in this paper, we demonstrate that the electron beam can be used to selectively and precisely insert a variety of transition metal atoms into graphene with highly localized control over the doping locations. We use first-principles density functional theory calculations with direct observation of the created structures to reveal the energetics of incorporating metal atoms into graphene and their magnetic, electronic, and quantum topological properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation and application of a multiphase CFD model for hydrodynamics, temperature field and RTD simulation in a pilot-scale biomass pyrolysis vapor phase upgrading reactor

Accurate prediction of transport phenomena is critical for VPU reactor design, optimization, and scale-up. The current study focused on the validation and application of a multiphase CFD model within an open-source code MFiX for hydrodynamics, temperature field, and residence time distribution (RTD) simulation in a non-reacting circulating fluidized bed riser for biomass pyrolysis vapor phase upgrading (VPU). First, an Eulerian-Eulerian approach three-dimensional CFD model was employed to simulate the pilot-scale VPU riser on the supercomputer Joule. Excellent quantitative agreement between experimental and simulated results was achieved for pressure drops and temperature field in a range of operating conditions. Then the validated multiphase CFD model was applied to predict gas and solid residence time distributions (RTDs) since prediction and analysis of RTD is an important tool to study the complex multiphase flow behavior and mixing inside chemical reactors. The predictions show that solid mean residence time is 3.5 times the gas residence time; the solid RTD is more sensitive to the process gas flow rate than the solids circulation rate.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of a Detailed Biomass Pyrolysis Kinetic Scheme in Multiscale Simulations of a Single-Particle Pyrolyzer and a Pilot-Scale Entrained Flow Pyrolyzer

A detailed biomass pyrolysis kinetic scheme was assessed in the multiscale simulations of a single-particle pyrolyzer with slow pyrolysis and a pilot-scale entrained flow pyrolyzer with fast pyrolysis. The detailed kinetic scheme of biomass pyrolysis developed by the CRECK group consists of 32 reactions and 58 species. A multiscale simulation model was developed, where the CRECK kinetics was employed to simulate biomass pyrolysis reactions, a one-dimensional particle model was utilized to simulate the intraparticle transport phenomena, and the particle-in-cell (PIC) model was employed to simulate the hydrodynamics. The multiscale model was first applied to simulate a single-particle pyrolysis experiment. The simulation with nonisothermal particles matched the experimental data better than the simulation with isothermal particles. Then the multiscale model was applied to simulate the pilot-scale entrained flow pyrolyzer. In this case, the simulation with isothermal particles matched the experimental data better than the simulation with nonisothermal particles. The reason for this difference might be that the kinetics itself already partially included the intraparticle transport effect as it was fitted using both TGA data (slow pyrolysis of small size biomass) and fluidized bed data (fast pyrolysis of relatively large size biomass). This study provides some insights into biomass pyrolysis kinetics development and pyrolyzer multiscale simulation for a future study.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental measurements of gas-particle flows in large-scale strippers

Measurements of gas–solid particle flow in a large-scale stripper unit are reported. The experiments target industrial (pilot) scale measurements of gas-particle flow that can be used to validate numerical methods for modeling multiphase flows, such as computational fluid dynamics coupled to the discrete element method (CFD-DEM). Specifically, experiments were performed with Geldart Group B (533 µm) glass beads in a stripper unit. In general, previous CFD-DEM validation datasets were performed in benchtop experimental systems and limited to O(10 5 ) particles. Here, in this work, the number of particles in the isolated section of the stripper is O(10 7 ) for all tests. Measurements are reported for a ~2 m tall section of the ~1 m diameter stripper. Radial mass flux profiles measured at five axial positions and three axial pressure drop measurements are reported for six operating conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

An extended three-field principle to scale-bridge the granular micromechanics of polymer-bonded particulate materials

Observed phenomena of damage, viscoelasticity, and viscoplasticity in polymer-bonded particulate materials (PBPM), like polymer-bonded explosive (PBX), are accommodated in a scale-bridging constitutive model based on granular micromechanics. An extended three-field variational principle with min - max optimization problem is introduced to homogenize the bonded aggregates’ grain-scale contact mechanics. Similarly to prior applications of a three-field principle, volume constraints are invoked to embed microscale-to-macroscale correspondences for kinematic and static volumetric measures, like mean strain and its energy-conjugate stress invariant. Unlike prior applications, our three-field principle realizes a strain-driven model for effective constitutive behavior due to bonded intergranular contact. In conclusion, the resultant micro-sphere integration-based homogenization is demonstrated in comparison to existing publicly-available measurements to capture the extreme tension/compression constitutive asymmetry exhibited by PBPMs (specifically PBX-9501) during material softening.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

An innovative digital image correlation technique for in-situ process monitoring of composite structures in large scale additive manufacturing

As additive manufacturing (AM) continues to develop and become a standardized manufacturing method, there will be a continued need to provide in-situ monitoring during the manufacturing of polymer composite printed components. Thermal residual stress is a primary cause of failures such as interlayer disbonds or delamination, micro cracking, and dimensional instability, which can occur during or after the build. Here, we report a novel digital image correlation (DIC) adaptation to monitor thermal residual stresses during the entire print process for large-scale AM. In this work, DIC has been investigated (a) by the natural speckle produced by the polymer surface for correlation, (b) to monitor AM build, and (c) to evaluate the effect of thermal residual stress on warpage of the printed component. The natural speckle pattern of the AM material resulted in a respectable 3.57% error compared to the traditional painted speckle pattern of 3.05% error. DIC measured a 190% increase in vertical displacement at the edge of the wall compared to the center, indicating warpage during AM. This work is a step towards a non-intrusive residual stress measuring technique using DIC for large-scale AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A genome-scale phylogeny of the kingdom Fungi

Phylogenomic studies using genome-scale amounts of data have greatly improved understanding of the tree of life. Despite the diversity, ecological significance, and biomedical and industrial importance of fungi, evolutionary relationships among several major lineages remain poorly resolved, especially those near the base of the fungal phylogeny. To examine poorly resolved relationships and assess progress toward a genome-scale phylogeny of the fungal kingdom, we compiled a phylogenomic data matrix of 290 genes from the genomes of 1,644 species that includes representatives from most major fungal lineages. We also compiled 11 data matrices by subsampling genes or taxa from the full data matrix based on filtering criteria previously shown to improve phylogenomic inference. Analyses of these 12 data matrices using concatenation- and coalescent-based approaches yielded a robust phylogeny of the fungal kingdom, in which ~85% of internal branches were congruent across data matrices and approaches used. We found support for several historically poorly resolved relationships as well as evidence for polytomies likely stemming from episodes of ancient diversification. By examining the relative evolutionary divergence of taxonomic groups of equivalent rank, we found that fungal taxonomy is broadly aligned with both genome sequence divergence and divergence time but also identified lineages where current taxonomic circumscription does not reflect their levels of evolutionary divergence. Finally, our results provide a robust phylogenomic framework to explore the tempo and mode of fungal evolution and offer directions for future fungal phylogenetic and taxonomic studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale (50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale (3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Explicit quantification of residence and flushing times in the Salish Sea using a sub-basin scale shoreline resolving model

The Salish Sea, located in the Pacific Northwest region of North America has complex currents and circulation features distributed over numerous interconnected deep basins with islands. Increased risk of exposure to oil spills and untreated wastewater from maritime emergencies and treatment plant failures have led to a need for quantifying residence and flushing characteristics at a sub-basin scale using a shoreline resolving hydrodynamic model. An unstructured grid model of the Salish Sea was developed using FVCOM with a ≈75-100m shoreline resolution. In addition to 7 tides and 23 salinity and temperature monitoring stations, an extensive currents data set from 135 stations collected over a span of three years was used for skill assessment and validation. Explicit forward computations were then conducted to define and quantify residence and flushing times in various sub-basins of interest using (a) Lagrangian particles and (b) Numerical/virtual dye experiments. The results in most basins show expected seasonal variability with longer flushing time associated with summer lower tides and lower freshwater inflows. However, contrary to expectation, flushing time is significantly longer in wintertime in large fjord-like basins such as Hood Canal (≈138 days), likely due to increased stratification and reduced mixing. The flushing time for the Puget Sound region of the Salish Sea is ≈115 days, while Georgia Basin is 240 days when analyzed as stand-alone basins with zero background concentrations. When examined as part of the flushing of the entire Puget Sound filled with virtual dye, the compounded flushing times for embedded sub-basins can be significantly longer in order of magnitudes and largely dictated by the flushing time of Puget Sound. The computed residence and flushing time scales tabulated over 36 sub-basins provide an improved understanding of water renewal in the system, informing pollution management actions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward control co-design of utility-scale wind turbines: Collective vs. individual blade pitch control

A large-eddy simulation framework has been coupled with controller modules to systematically investigate the impacts of collective (CPC) and individual (IPC) pitch control strategies on utility-scale wind turbine energy production and fatigue loads. Wind turbine components were parameterized using an actuator surface model to simulate the rotor blades and the turbine nacelle. The baseline CPC and IPC algorithms, consisting of single-input single-output proportional–integral controllers and two integral controllers, respectively, were incorporated into the numerical framework. A series of simulations were carried out to investigate the relative performance of the two controllers under various turbulent inflow conditions, spanning hub-height velocities of 7 to 14 m/s. The numerical simulation results of this study showed that, in comparison to the CPC, the IPC controller could successfully reduce the damage equivalent loads of utility-scale turbines at regions 2 and 3 of turbine operation by about 3% and 40%, respectively, without any penalty on the power production of the turbine. It was also shown that, despite its minor impact on the turbulence kinetic energy of the wake, the IPC controller did not influence the recovery of the turbine wake.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scaling of energy delivered through an electrostatic discharge to a small series load

We study the energy delivered through a small-resistance series “victim” load during electrostatic discharge events in air. For gap lengths over 1 mm, the fraction of the stored energy delivered is mostly gap-length independent, with a slight decrease at larger gaps due to electrode geometry. The energy to the victim scales linearly with circuit capacitance and victim load resistance but is not strongly dependent on circuit inductance. This scaling leads to a simple approach to predicting the maximum energy that will be delivered to a series resistance for the case where the victim load resistance is lower than the spark resistance.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗