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At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the “signal-to-noise paradox” and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid data-driven and model-informed online tool wear detection in milling machines

Precision machining tool wear is responsible for low product throughput and quality. Monitoring the tool wear online is vital to prevent degradation in machining quality. However, direct real-time tool wear measurement is not practical. This paper presents residual-based anomaly detection models, combining a hybrid model comprised of a physics-based model and a data-driven model (a decision tree or a neural network) to predict signals of interest (e.g., power or forces) under nominal conditions, followed by Page’s cumulative sum test for detecting tool wear on-line using the computer numerical control machine measurements. The most informative features are ranked using dynamic programming and its approximation variants from real-time measurements and machine settings, such as the width of cut, depth of cut, feed rate and spindle speed, that serve as inputs to the predictive models. The baseline nominal model is incrementally updated with experimental data via a gradient boosted adaptation model to generate the residuals that account for discrepancies between the actual machine data under normal conditions and the baseline nominal model predictions. The hybrid model is validated against 20 Mazak milling machine experimental tests and one Haas run-to-failure experiment. The proposed anomaly detector is applied to synthetic data from simulations of the physics-based model at different operating conditions, measurement noise levels, and tool wear levels, and the methods were able to achieve an overall 92% accuracy in data with 1% noise. The anomaly detection methods based on hybrid model reduced the false alarms of either the data-driven or physical-based models alone, and are found to be capable of good online detection of tool wear.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2022

Hybrid data-driven and model-informed online tool wear detection in milling machines

Precision machining tool wear is responsible for low product throughput and quality. Monitoring the tool wear online is vital to prevent degradation in machining quality. However, direct real-time tool wear measurement is not practical. This paper presents residual-based anomaly detection models, combining a hybrid model comprised of a physics-based model and a data-driven model (a decision tree or a neural network) to predict signals of interest (e.g., power or forces) under nominal conditions, followed by Page’s cumulative sum test for detecting tool wear on-line using the computer numerical control machine measurements. The most informative features are ranked using dynamic programming and its approximation variants from real-time measurements and machine settings, such as the width of cut, depth of cut, feed rate and spindle speed, that serve as inputs to the predictive models. The baseline nominal model is incrementally updated with experimental data via a gradient boosted adaptation model to generate the residuals that account for discrepancies between the actual machine data under normal conditions and the baseline nominal model predictions. The hybrid model is validated against 20 Mazak milling machine experimental tests and one Haas run-to-failure experiment. The proposed anomaly detector is applied to synthetic data from simulations of the physics-based model at different operating conditions, measurement noise levels, and tool wear levels, and the methods were able to achieve an overall 92% accuracy in data with 1% noise. The anomaly detection methods based on hybrid model reduced the false alarms of either the data-driven or physical-based models alone, and are found to be capable of good online detection of tool wear.

Online anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2016

Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Predictive Turbulence Modeling: Towards a Complete Framework

Although increased availability of computational resources has enabled high-fidelity simulations (e.g., large eddy simulations) of turbulent flows, the Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) models are still the dominant tools in industrial applications. However, the predictive capabilities of RANS models are limited by large model-form discrepancies due to the Reynolds stress closure. Recently, a Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) approach has been proposed to learn the functional form of Reynolds stress discrepancy in RANS simulations based on available data. It has been demonstrated that the learned discrepancy function can be used to improve Reynolds stresses in new flows where data are not available. However, due to a number of challenges, the improvements are only demonstrated in the Reynolds stress prediction but not in corresponding propagated quantities of interest (e.g., velocity field). In this work, we investigate the prediction performance on the velocity field by propagating the corrected Reynolds stresses in PIML approach. To enrich the input features, an integrity basis of invariants is implemented. The fully developed turbulent flow in a square duct is used as the test case. The discrepancy model is trained on flow fields from several Reynolds numbers and evaluated on a duct flow at a higher Reynolds number than any of the training cases. The predicted Reynolds stresses are propagated to velocity field via RANS equations. Numerical results show excellent predictive performances in both Reynolds stresses and their propagated velocities, demonstrating the merits of the PIML approach in predictive turbulence modeling.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

A mesoscale crystal plasticity model to predict room-temperature deformation and martensitic transformation of high-strength Quenching and Partitioning (Q&P) Steels and validation with synchrotron X-ray diffraction

Renowned for the superior mechanical properties and adeptness at cold-forming, Quenching and Partitioning (QP) steels have gained prominence as a promising candidate material in fabricating safety-critical components in various industries. The pertinent research on QP steels focus on the martensitic transformation of the Retained Austenite (RA) phase during cold-forming, a crucial mechanism that substantially influences the overall strength and ductility of QP steels. The austenite stability and transformation rate heavily rely on the local strain path and the initial microstructure, which is challenging for analytical prediction. In this paper, a mesoscale model is developed to capture the deformation and transformation kinetics of QP steels inside the microstructure. The model integrates the detailed explicit microstructure, acquired from characterization experiments, into a high-resolution finite element (FE) mesh. It distinctly model the deformation and interaction between the various phases and the effect on the transformation of RA. The model is validated with high energy X-ray diffraction (HEXRD) data, and shows excellent capability in predicting the asymmetric stress-strain behavior under uniaxial tension and compression, as well as the martensitic transformation rate. The model is used to investigate the strain and load partitioning effect of surrounding matrix to the transformation of RA, offering insights into the complex behavior of QP980 and facilitates further material development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinetic Modeling of Secondary Organic Aerosol in a Weather-Chemistry Model: Parameterizations, Processes, and Predictions for GOAmazon

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) forms and evolves in the atmosphere through many pathways and processes, over diverse spatial and time scales. Hence, there is a need to represent these widely-varying kinetic processes in large-scale atmospheric models to allow for accurate predictions of the abundance, properties, and impacts of SOA. In this work, we integrated a kinetic, process-level model (simpleSOM-MOSAIC) into a weather-chemistry model (WRF-Chem) to simulate the oxidation chemistry and microphysics of atmospheric SOA. simpleSOM-MOSAIC simulates multigenerational gas-phase chemistry, autoxidation reactions, heterogeneous oxidation, oligomerization, and phase-state-influenced gas/particle partitioning of SOA. As a case study, the integrated WRF-Chem-simpleSOM-MOSAIC (WC-SSM) model was used to simulate the photochemical evolution downwind of a large city (Manaus, Brazil) in the Amazon and, in turn, study the anthropogenic and biogenic interactions in an otherwise pristine environment. Consistent with previous work, we found that OA was enhanced by up to a factor of four in the urban plume due to elevated hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations, relative to the background, and that this OA was dominated by SOA from biogenic precursors (80%). Further, in addition to accurately simulating the OA enhancement in the urban plume, the model reproduced the magnitude of the OA oxygen-to-carbon (O:C) ratio and broadly tracked the evolution of the aerosol size distribution. Our work highlights the importance of including an integrated, kinetic representation of SOA processes in an atmospheric model

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

A 3D Model to Predict Explicit Morphologies and Volume Fraction of Lack-of-Fusion Pores Generated in Selective Laser Melting Processes

The performance of an additively manufactured (AM) component is dependent on the distribution of process-induced defects in addition to the complex microstructure of the material, surface roughness of the component and the process-induced residual stresses. For instance, it has been well demonstrated that lack-of-fusion (LoF) pores produced in the selective laser melting (SLM) AM process can significantly limit the fatigue performance of the material. Although two-dimensional (2D) models exist to predict the 2D profiles of LoF pores, the 2D pore profiles cannot be directly inserted into a three-dimensional (3D) microstructure domain that is output from several prevailing process simulation packages. A few commercial packages that simulate the SLM process can predict LoF pores in a 3D domain, but the morphologies of LoF pores are voxelated and hence do not capture sharp corners of the pores, thereby obviating their use in fatigue crack initiation studies. In order to address the aforementioned gaps, a high-fidelity model that predicts not only the volume fraction, but also the explicit 3D morphologies and spatial distributions of LoF pores has been developed using a computer aided design-based environment. The model has been partially validated for Ti-6Al-4V alloy by comparing the predictions of the volume fraction of LoF pores predicted by the model with experimental data obtained from the literature. Absolute error in predicted volume fraction of LoF pores varied between 5.16% and 1.87% for energy density values between 13 J/mm3 and 45 J/mm3 where a significant amount (over 3% volume fraction) of LoF porosity was measured. The absolute error was within 1.87% for energy density values greater than 45 J/mm3.

Saikumar R. Yeratapally↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) MMRTG In-Flight: A Power Update

The MSL Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) was fueled on October 28, 2008 by the Department Of Energy (DOE) in preparation for a late 2009 launch. Shortly after, the MSL launch was delayed approximately 2 years until 2011. The fueled MMRTG was placed in storage to await the new date for liftoff. Occasional measurements of the MMRTG's power output were taken and compared with power predictions that pre-dated fueling. An error in the predictive models was quickly recognized and remedied. The resultant predictions, while improved, carried significant uncertainty. This uncertainty did not deter the launch of MSL, but did alter the planned mission on the surface of Mars. Once launched, the MSL spacecraft provided a hi-fidelity telemetry stream measuring the generator's electrical and thermal performance. These data were used to update the predictive models and a new prediction of the performance of the MMRTG on the surface of Mars was run just before Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) at Mars. The MSL MMRTG is working extremely well, providing power above predictions and operating within its flight allowable temperature limits. The generator was producing approximately 114 W at the beginning of the surface mission. This paper will elaborate on power modeling for the MSL MMRTG along with a review of some of the data recorded from the MSL cruise to Mars, EDL, and the early days of the surface mission.

thermoelectric↗
DOE OSTI2015

COMPASS: A Framework for Automated Performance Modeling and Prediction

Flexible, accurate performance predictions offer numerous benefits such as gaining insight into and optimizing applications and architectures. However, the development and evaluation of such performance predictions has been a major research challenge, due to the architectural complexities. To address this challenge, we have designed and implemented a prototype system, named COMPASS, for automated performance model generation and prediction. COMPASS generates a structured performance model from the target application's source code using automated static analysis, and then, it evaluates this model using various performance prediction techniques. As we demonstrate on several applications, the results of these predictions can be used for a variety of purposes, such as design space exploration, identifying performance tradeoffs for applications, and understanding sensitivities of important parameters. COMPASS can generate these predictions across several types of applications from traditional, sequential CPU applications to GPU-based, heterogeneous, parallel applications. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates a maximum overhead of 4%, flexibility to generate models for 9 applications, speed, ease of creation, and very low relative errors across a diverse set of architectures.

Lee, Seyong↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Impact of Nuclear Physics Uncertainties on Galactic Chemical Evolution Predictions

Modeling the evolution of the elements in the Milky Way is a multidisciplinary and challenging task. In addition to simulating the ~13 billion years evolution of our Galaxy, chemical evolution simulations must keep track of the elements synthesized and ejected from every astrophysical site of interest (e.g., supernova, compact binary merger). The elemental abundances of such ejecta, which are a fundamental input for chemical evolution codes, are usually taken from theoretical nucleosynthesis calculations performed by the nuclear astrophysics community. Therefore, almost all chemical evolution predictions rely on the nuclear physics behind those calculations. In this proceedings article, we highlight the impact of nuclear physics uncertainties on galactic chemical evolution predictions. We demonstrate that nuclear physics and galactic evolution uncertainties both have a significant impact on interpreting the origin of neutron-capture elements in our Solar System. Those results serve as a motivation to create and maintain collaborations between the fields of nuclear astrophysics and galaxy evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

A study of turbulence models for prediction of transitional boundary layers

Calculations of two-dimensional transitional boundary layer flows in zero and favorable pressure gradients are presented. The major focus is on the evaluation of current turbulence models to predict quantities such as skin-friction and heat transfer coefficients. Three turbulence models using the mixing length concept along with a one-equation model are considered. These models are tested by comparison with the experiments of Blair and Werle, who investigated flows over a heated flat plate for various levels of free-stream turbulence.

Abid, Ridha↗
DOE OSTI2020

Combining mechanistic and machine learning models for predictive engineering and optimization of tryptophan metabolism

Abstract Through advanced mechanistic modeling and the generation of large high-quality datasets, machine learning is becoming an integral part of understanding and engineering living systems. Here we show that mechanistic and machine learning models can be combined to enable accurate genotype-to-phenotype predictions. We use a genome-scale model to pinpoint engineering targets, efficient library construction of metabolic pathway designs, and high-throughput biosensor-enabled screening for training diverse machine learning algorithms. From a single data-generation cycle, this enables successful forward engineering of complex aromatic amino acid metabolism in yeast, with the best machine learning-guided design recommendations improving tryptophan titer and productivity by up to 74 and 43%, respectively, compared to the best designs used for algorithm training. Thus, this study highlights the power of combining mechanistic and machine learning models to effectively direct metabolic engineering efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven prediction of geometry- and toolpath sequence-dependent intra-layer process conditions variations in laser powder bed fusion

Geometrical features and toolpath sequence are two important factors that cause process condition variations, such as variations in the meltpool temperature or meltpool size, that might lead to undesired material properties in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process. Due to the high dynamics and complex physics of the LPBF process, it is difficult to predict variations in process conditions with simulations alone. Advances in measurement technology and computational technologies open up new possibilities for smart manufacturing. In this paper, a data-driven method to predict intra-layer variations in the processing conditions that source from the toolpath sequence and part geometry is presented. The approach is demonstrated using two-color on-axis pyrometer measurements. Three demonstration cases are presented in which it is demonstrated (1) how the trained predictive model can be used as a filter to ease the interpretation of process variations and discover patterns related to toolpath and part geometry, and (2) how to generate predictions that can be used for feedforward control, i.e., for adjusting laser power or scanning speed along the toolpath using a meltpool temperature prediction model generated based on on-axis measurements. Results show that the developed prediction model is able to meaningfully predict process variations resulted from toolpath sequence and geometry. Predictions are aligned with the results from the related work of others and for the case of 180° laser path turnarounds in our high-speed X-ray imaging experiments. In conclusion, the potential issues related to the current maturity status of the process and measuring equipment that could in practice affect the performance of the proposed solutions are also discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Data-Driven Nonlinear Subspace Modeling for Prediction and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking

Blast furnace (BF) in ironmaking is a nonlinear dynamic process with complicated physical-chemical reactions, where multi-phase and multi-field coupling and large time delay occur during its operation. In BF operation, the molten iron temperature (MIT) as well as Si, P and S contents of molten iron are the most essential molten iron quality (MIQ) indices, whose measurement, modeling and control have always been important issues in metallurgic engineering and automation field. This paper develops a novel data-driven nonlinear state space modeling for the prediction and control of multivariate MIQ indices by integrating hybrid modeling and control techniques. First, to improve modeling efficiency, a data-driven hybrid method combining canonical correlation analysis and correlation analysis is proposed to identify the most influential controllable variables as the modeling inputs from multitudinous factors would affect the MIQ indices. Then, a Hammerstein model for the prediction of MIQ indices is established using the LS-SVM based nonlinear subspace identification method. Such a model is further simplified by using piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomial method to fit the complex nonlinear kernel function. Compared to the original Hammerstein model, this simplified model can not only significantly reduce the computational complexity, but also has almost the same reliability and accuracy for a stable prediction of MIQ indices. Last, in order to verify the practicability of the developed model, it is applied in designing a genetic algorithm based nonlinear predictive controller for multivariate MIQ indices by directly taking the established model as a predictor. Industrial experiments show the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Blast furnace (BF)↗
NASA NTRS1992

AMTEC system performance studies using the detailed electrode kinetic and transport model

A detailed electrochemical model of the alkali metal thermoelectric converter (AMTEC) electrode and current collector grid has been developed recently. Comparative evaluations of the resulting differences in model predictions reveal that the new detailed model predicts up to 50 percent higher electrode power densities at condenser operating temperatures above 600 K. The new model, with experimentally determined parameters, was used to recalculate the projected system performance of previously reported 1- and 100-kWe AMTEC space power systems that had incorporated earlier electrolyte/electrode models. It was found that when the detailed model was used to determine the electrode power densities, enhanced specific power and efficiencies are predicted.

Sievers, Robert K.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Final Report Systems Level Analysis of the Function and Adaptive Responses of Methanogenic Consortia

The purpose of this research was to determine whether the syntrophic microbial associations that are central to the functioning of methane-producing terrestrial wetlands can be predictively modeled with coupled multi-species genome-scale metabolic models. Such models are important because methane is an important greenhouse gas and there is a need to predictively model how the methane-producing microbial communities will respond to environmental perturbations, such as global climate change. The research discovered that the most prodigious methane-producing microorganisms on earth participate in a previously unrecognized form of energy exchange. The methane-producers Methanosaeta and Methanosarcina forge biological electrical connections with other microbes in order to obtain electrons to reduce carbon dioxide to methane. This direct interspecies electron transfer (DIET) was demonstrated in complex microbial communities as well as in defined co-cultures. For example, metatranscriptomic analysis of gene expression in both natural communities and defined co-cultures demonstrated that Methanosaeta species highly expressed genes for the enzymes for the reduction of carbon dioxide to methane. Furthermore, Methanosaeta’s electron-donating partners highly expressed genes for the biological electrical connections known as microbial nanowires. A series of studies involving transcriptomics, genome resequencing, and analysis of the metabolism of a series of strains with targeted gene deletions, further elucidated the mechanisms and energetics of DIET in methane-producing co-cultures, as well as in a co-culture of Geobacter metallireducens and Geobacter sulfurreducens, which provided a system for studying DIET with two genetically tractable partners. Genome-scale modeling of DIET in the G. metallireducens/G. sulfurreducens co-culture suggested that DIET provides more energy to the electron-donating partner that electron exchange via interspecies hydrogen transfer, but that the performance of DIET may be strongly influenced by environmental factors. These studies have significantly modified conceptual models for carbon and electron flow in methane-producing environments and have developed a computational framework for predictive modeling the influence of environmental perturbations on methane-producing microbial communities. The results have important implications for modeling the response of methane-producing microbial communities to climate change as well as for the bioenergy strategy of converting wastes and biomass to methane.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗