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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

A hydrological emulator for global applications – HE v1.0.0

Abstract. While global hydrological models (GHMs) are very useful in exploring water resources and interactions between the Earth and human systems, their use often requires numerous model inputs, complex model calibration, and high computation costs. To overcome these challenges, we construct an efficient open-source and ready-to-use hydrological emulator (HE) that can mimic complex GHMs at a range of spatial scales (e.g., basin, region, globe). More specifically, we construct both a lumped and a distributed scheme of the HE based on the monthly abcd model to explore the tradeoff between computational cost and model fidelity. Model predictability and computational efficiency are evaluated in simulating global runoff from 1971 to 2010 with both the lumped and distributed schemes. The results are compared against the runoff product from the widely used Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Our evaluation indicates that the lumped and distributed schemes present comparable results regarding annual total quantity, spatial pattern, and temporal variation of the major water fluxes (e.g., total runoff, evapotranspiration) across the global 235 basins (e.g., correlation coefficient r between the annual total runoff from either of these two schemes and the VIC is >0.96), except for several cold (e.g., Arctic, interior Tibet), dry (e.g., North Africa) and mountainous (e.g., Argentina) regions. Compared against the monthly total runoff product from the VIC (aggregated from daily runoff), the global mean Kling–Gupta efficiencies are 0.75 and 0.79 for the lumped and distributed schemes, respectively, with the distributed scheme better capturing spatial heterogeneity. Notably, the computation efficiency of the lumped scheme is 2 orders of magnitude higher than the distributed one and 7 orders more efficient than the VIC model. A case study of uncertainty analysis for the world's 16 basins with top annual streamflow is conducted using 100 000 model simulations, and it demonstrates the lumped scheme's extraordinary advantage in computational efficiency. Our results suggest that the revised lumped abcd model can serve as an efficient and reasonable HE for complex GHMs and is suitable for broad practical use, and the distributed scheme is also an efficient alternative if spatial heterogeneity is of more interest.

Liu, Yaling↗
DOE OSTI2019

Selective Information Extraction Strategies for Cancer Pathology Reports with Convolutional Neural Networks

To trust model predictions, it is important to ensure new data scored by the model comes from the same population used for model training. If the model is used to score new data different than the model’s training data, then predictions and model performance metrics cannot be trusted. Identifying and excluding these anomalous data points is an important task when using models in the real world. Traditional machine learning algorithms and classifiers don’t have the capability to abstain in this case. Here we propose a data-novelty detection algorithm for the Convolutional Neural Network classifier, yielding a rejection score for each new data point scored. It is a post-modeling procedure which examines the distribution of convolution filters to determine if the prediction should be trusted. We apply this algorithm to an information extraction model for a natural language text corpus. We evaluated the algorithm performance using a primary cancer site classification model applied to cancer pathology reports. Results demonstrate that the algorithm is an effective way to exclude cancer pathology reports from model scoring when they do not contain the expected information necessary to accurately classify the primary cancer type.

Yoon, Hong-Jun↗
DOE OSTI2014

Techniques for Automated Performance Analysis

The performance of a particular HPC code depends on a multitude of variables, including compiler selection, optimization flags, OpenMP pool size, file system load, memory usage, MPI configuration, etc. As a result of this complexity, current predictive models have limited applicability, especially at scale. We present a formulation of scientific codes, nodes, and clusters that reduces complex performance analysis to well-known mathematical techniques. Building accurate predictive models and enhancing our understanding of scientific codes at scale is an important step towards exascale computing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

A search for the higgs boson and a search for dark-matter particle with jets and missing transverse energy at collider detector at Fermilab

Finding the standard model Higgs boson and discovering beyond-standard model physics phenomena have been the most important goals for the high-energy physics in the last decades. In this thesis, we present two such searches. First is the search for the low mass standard model Higgs boson produced in association with a vector boson; second is the rst search for a dark-matter candidate (D) produced in association with a top quark (t) in particle colliders. We search in events with energetic jets and large missing transverse energy { a signature characterized by complicated backgrounds { in data collected by the CDF detector with proton-antiproton collisions at p s = 1:96 TeV. We discuss the techniques that have been developed for background modeling, for discriminating signal from background, and for reducing background resulting from detector e ects. In the Higgs search, we report the 95% con dence level upper limits on the pro- duction cross section across masses of 90 to 150 GeV/c2. The expected limits are improved by an average of 14% relative to the previous analysis. The Large Hadron Collider experiments reported a Higgs-like particle with mass of 125 GeV/c2 by study- ing the data collected in year 2011/12. At a Higgs boson mass of 125 GeV/c2, our observed (expected) limit is 3.06 (3.33) times the standard model prediction, corre- sponding to one of the most sensitive searches to date in this nal state. In the dark matter search, we nd the data are consistent with the standard model prediction, thus set 95% con dence level upper limits on the cross section of the process p p ! t + D as a function of the mass of the dark-matter candidate. The xviii upper limits are approximately 0.5 pb for a dark-matter particle with masses in the range of 0 􀀀 150 GeV/c2.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Managing an Aging Pump-and-Treat Groundwater Remediation System at the Fernald Preserve - 19557

The Fernald Preserve, Ohio, Site underwent restoration and remediation under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). With the exception of the Great Miami Aquifer, the CERCLA remediation was declared physically complete on October 29, 2006, and the site was turned over to the US Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management for long-term care and maintenance. The Record of Decision under CERCLA specifies a concentration-based cleanup that requires the extraction and treatment of Great Miami Aquifer groundwater above Final Remediation Levels (FRLs) until the full, beneficial use potential of the aquifer is achieved, including use as a drinking water source. The area of the aquifer targeted for remediation is 126.5 hectares (312.70 acres). The groundwater pumping remediation was designed by modeling cleanup with the Variable Saturated Analysis Model in 3 Dimensions (VAM-3D) modeling code, developed by Hydrogeologic Inc. The original design called for 23 extraction wells operating at 379 liters per minute (lpm) (100 gallons per minute [gpm]) to 1135 lpm (300 gpm) each for a system total of 18,073 lpm (4775 gpm). In 2014, the system was optimized down to 20 extraction wells operating at 379 to 1893 lpm each for a system total of 19,180 lpm (5075 gpm). To date, pumping has been an effective remediation technology for the aquifer. At the end of 2017, the area of the aquifer remaining above FRLs was down to 38.2 hectares (94.4 acres). From August 1993 through December 2017 (24 years), 6235 kilograms (kg) (13,733 pounds) of uranium were removed from the aquifer by the pumping of 1.74 x 10{sup 11} liters (46.2 billion gallons) of water. Since 2010, treatment of groundwater to achieve regulatory discharge limits at the Great Miami River has not been needed on a routine basis. The ongoing remediation is now essentially a pumping operation, and this water does not require treatment. Metrics reported in the annual Site Environmental Report for the groundwater remediation indicate that, based on the model-predicted estimate of the mass of uranium that needs to be removed from the aquifer to achieve a concentration-based cleanup, the cleanup is approximately 86% - 87% complete. Current model predictions indicate that pumping will need to continue an additional 16 years (until 2035) in some of the wells. During the additional 16 years, it is estimated that approximately 1012 kg (2231 pounds) of uranium will be removed from the aquifer. System pumping rates are designed to decrease over the course of the remaining 16 years, dropping down to a system total of 11,638 lpm (3075 gpm) in 2022 and a system total of 4163 lpm (1100 gpm) in 2033. Even with the designed decreases in pumping rates, it is estimated that approximately 1 x 10{sup 11} liters (26.6 billion gallons) of water will be pumped from the aquifer to remove 1012 kg (2231 pounds) of uranium. This indicates that the remaining 16 years of operation will be much less efficient than the first 24 years. Decreasing efficiency is common for pumping operations. The worst-case scenario is that decreasing concentration trends stabilize above the cleanup FRLs and remediation goals are never achieved. Performance assessments of the pumping remedy will need to be routinely conducted to determine if pumping should be discontinued, if it should be continued but optimized, or if the pumping technology can be supplemented with a different technology that will improve the outcome of the remediation and make the operation more efficient and successful. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Applicability of Developed Calculation Models to Predict Long-term Behavior of Metal Seals - Necessary Scope of Tests - 19311

The long-term sealing behavior of metal seals, assembled in the lid system of casks for transportation and storage of radioactive materials, has been investigated. For that purpose, phenomenological models describing the time- and temperature dependent behavior have been introduced by BAM since 2016, e.g. by using the time-temperature superposition principle. Results have shown that these models describe the relaxation behavior adequately and are suitable for extrapolations. In this work, the applicability of these models is checked by analyzing the necessary scope of tests, which must be carried out to get sufficient information about the long-term behavior of metal seals based on short-term tests. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

Modeling adaptation of carbon use efficiency in microbial communities

In new microbial-biogeochemical models, microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is often assumed to decline with increasing temperature. Under this assumption, soil carbon losses under warming are small because microbial biomass declines. Yet there is also empirical evidence that CUE may adapt (i.e., become less sensitive) to warming, thereby mitigating negative effects on microbial biomass. To analyze potential mechanisms of CUE adaptation, I used two theoretical models to implement a tradeoff between microbial uptake rate and CUE. This rate-yield tradeoff is based on thermodynamic principles and suggests that microbes with greater investment in resource acquisition should have lower CUE. Microbial communities or individuals could adapt to warming by reducing investment in enzymes and uptake machinery. Consistent with this idea, a simple analytical model predicted that adaptation can offset 50% of the warming-induced decline in CUE. To assess the ecosystem implications of the rate-yield tradeoff, I quantified CUE adaptation in a spatially-structured simulation model with 100 microbial taxa and 12 soil carbon substrates. This model predicted much lower CUE adaptation, likely due to additional physiological and ecological constraints on microbes. In particular, specific resource acquisition traits are needed to maintain stoichiometric balance, and taxa with high CUE and low enzyme investment rely on low-yield, high-enzyme neighbors to catalyze substrate degradation. In contrast to published microbial models, simulations with greater CUE adaptation also showed greater carbon storage under warming. This pattern occurred because microbial communities with stronger CUE adaptation produced fewer degradative enzymes, despite increases in biomass. Thus, the rate-yield tradeoff prevents CUE adaptation from driving ecosystem carbon loss under climate warming.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling HIV-1 Within-Host Dynamics After Passive Infusion of the Broadly Neutralizing Antibody VRC01

VRC01 is a broadly neutralizing antibody that targets the CD4 binding site of HIV-1 gp120. Passive administration of VRC01 in humans has assessed the safety and the effect on plasma viremia of this monoclonal antibody (mAb) in a phase 1 clinical trial. After VRC01 infusion, the plasma viral load in most of the participants was reduced but had particular dynamics not observed during antiretroviral therapy. In this paper, we introduce different mathematical models to explain the observed dynamics and fit them to the plasma viral load data. Based on the fitting results we argue that a model containing reversible Ab binding to virions and clearance of virus-VRC01 complexes by a two-step process that includes (1) saturable capture followed by (2) internalization/degradation by phagocytes, best explains the data. This model predicts that VRC01 may enhance the clearance of Ab-virus complexes, explaining the initial viral decay observed immediately after antibody infusion in some participants. Because Ab-virus complexes are assumed to be unable to infect cells, i.e., contain neutralized virus, the model predicts a longer-term viral decay consistent with that observed in the VRC01 treated participants. By assuming a homogeneous viral population sensitive to VRC01, the model provides good fits to all of the participant data. However, the fits are improved by assuming that there were two populations of virus, one more susceptible to antibody-mediated neutralization than the other.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Training data selection for event classification in a highly variable environment

A problem of interest for nuclear nonproliferation is monitoring activities at nuclear facilities, where proliferation events may only take place a few times and often under variable conditions. Machine learning has revolutionized data analytics by enabling the use of measurable signatures to generate predictive models of facility operations. However, traditional methods for training these models require large, reliable data sets with labeled observations, a challenge for nonproliferation. Highly variable conditions further complicate this as events from training data may have occurred in conditions quite different from the event of interest. Our hypothesis is that when events occur in a highly variable environment, careful training data selection for each test event could outperform the standard approach of using all available training data. We developed a method to optimize training data selection for the given test event and applied it to predicting the power level of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In this study, the reactor startup exhibits variability between occurrences due to natural variability in environmental conditions and operational procedures. Using a combination of analysis techniques, a similitude assessment was performed on data collected from HFIR to isolate clusters that were optimal for training a predictive model. Concepts such as dynamic time warping and Jaccard similarity were used in conjunction with clustering analysis. In order to validate this approach, the model was trained on every combination of unique training events and the predictive performance was compared to the performance using a subset of the training data selected by isolated clusters found through the similitude assessment.

Iyer, A↗
DOE OSTI2013

An epidermal equivalent assay for identification and ranking potency of contact sensitizers

The purpose of this study was to explore the possibility of combining the epidermal equivalent (EE) potency assay with the assay which assesses release of interleukin-18 (IL-18) to provide a single test for identification and classification of skin sensitizing chemicals, including chemicals of low water solubility or stability. A protocol was developed using different 3D-epidermal models including in house VUMC model, epiCS® (previously EST1000™), MatTek EpiDerm™ and SkinEthic™ RHE and also the impact of different vehicles (acetone:olive oil 4:1, 1% DMSO, ethanol, water) was investigated. Following topical exposure for 24 h to 17 contact allergens and 13 non-sensitizers a robust increase in IL-18 release was observed only after exposure to contact allergens. A putative prediction model is proposed from data obtained from two laboratories yielding 95% accuracy. Correlating the in vitro EE sensitizer potency data, which assesses the chemical concentration which results in 50% cytotoxicity (EE-EC{sub 50}) with human and animal data showed a superior correlation with human DSA{sub 05} (μg/cm{sup 2}) data (Spearman r = 0.8500; P value (two-tailed) = 0.0061) compared to LLNA data (Spearman r = 0.5968; P value (two-tailed) = 0.0542). DSA{sub 05} = induction dose per skin area that produces a positive response in 5% of the tested population Also a good correlation was observed for release of IL-18 (SI-2) into culture supernatants with human DSA{sub 05} data (Spearman r = 0.8333; P value (two-tailed) = 0.0154). This easily transferable human in vitro assay appears to be very promising, but additional testing of a larger chemical set with the different EE models is required to fully evaluate the utility of this assay and to establish a definitive prediction model. - Highlights: • A potential epidermal equivalent assay to label and classify sensitizers • Il-18 release distinguishes sensitizers from non sensitizers • IL-18 release can rank sensitizer potency • EC50 (chemical concentration causing 50% decrease in cell viability) ranks potency • In vitro: human DSA{sub 05} correlation is better than in vitro: LLNA correlation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Methods for Determining Likelihood of Tweet Deletion

Few works exist that attempt to build predictive models for tweet deletion. Zhou et al. (2015) focus on a subset of deleted tweets – regrettable tweets. These are tweets that the authors believe to contain inappropriate content. Inappropriate can range from vulgar language to sharing private content such as a personal email address. The presence of inappropriate content doesn’t guarantee that a tweet will be deleted, however intuition dictates it can be in an important factor in the tweet being deleted. In their work, the authors create a predictive model for identifying regrettable tweets. It is important to note the authors focus on predicting regrettable tweets that are distinctly not spam and only written in English. Through manual investigation, the authors identify ten major topics including negative sentiment, cursing, and relationships that are prevalent in regrettable tweets. The authors then exploit WordNet and UrbanDictionary to create keyword lists related to the ten topics. Finally, using a combination of existing lexica and the topic keywords as features, the authors build classifiers to test the accuracy of their model. The authors complement 700 manually labeled regrettable tweets with 700 normal tweets to create their evaluation dataset. The authors’ best performance from 10-fold cross-validation was an f1 score of 0.85 using a J48 classifier on a balanced dataset of deleted and non-deleted tweets.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing process-based models to predict current and future soil organic carbon stocks at high-resolution

From hillslope to small catchment scales (< 50 km 2 ), soil carbon management and mitigation policies rely on estimates and projections of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Here we apply a process-based modeling approach that parameterizes the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) model with SOC measurements and remotely sensed environmental data from the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in SW Idaho, USA. Calibrating model parameters reduced error between simulated and observed SOC stocks by 25%, relative to the initial parameter estimates and better captured local gradients in climate and productivity. The calibrated parameter ensemble was used to produce spatially continuous, high-resolution (10 m 2 ) estimates of stocks and associated uncertainties of litter, microbial biomass, particulate, and protected SOC pools across the complex landscape. Here, subsequent projections of SOC response to idealized environmental disturbances illustrate the spatial complexity of potential SOC vulnerabilities across the watershed. Parametric uncertainty generated physicochemically protected soil C stocks that varied by a mean factor of 4.4 × across individual locations in the watershed and a – 14.9 to + 20.4% range in potential SOC stock response to idealized disturbances, illustrating the need for additional measurements of soil carbon fractions and their turnover time to improve confidence in the MIMICS simulations of SOC dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurement of the Drell-Yan forward-backward asymmetry at high dilepton masses in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A measurement of the forward-backward asymmetry of pairs of oppositely charged leptons (dimuons and dielectrons) produced by the Drell-Yan process in proton-proton collisions is presented. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb -1 collected with the CMS detector at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The asymmetry is measured as a function of lepton pair mass for masses larger than 170 GeV and compared with standard model predictions. An inclusive measurement across both channels and the full mass range yields an asymmetry of 0.612 ± 0.005 (stat) ± 0.007 (syst). As a test of lepton flavor universality, the difference between the dimuon and dielectron asymmetries is measured as well. No statistically significant deviations from standard model predictions are observed. The measurements are used to set limits on the presence of additional gauge bosons. For a Z' boson in the sequential standard model the observed (expected) 95% confidence level lower limit on the Z' mass is 4.4 TeV (3.7 TeV).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Plot-level rapid screening for photosynthetic parameters using proximal hyperspectral imaging

Abstract Photosynthesis is currently measured using time-laborious and/or destructive methods which slows research and breeding efforts to identify crop germplasm with higher photosynthetic capacities. We present a plot-level screening tool for quantification of photosynthetic parameters and pigment contents that utilizes hyperspectral reflectance from sunlit leaf pixels collected from a plot (~2 m×2 m) in <1 min. Using field-grown Nicotiana tabacum with genetically altered photosynthetic pathways over two growing seasons (2017 and 2018), we built predictive models for eight photosynthetic parameters and pigment traits. Using partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis of plot-level sunlit vegetative reflectance pixels from a single visible near infra-red (VNIR) (400–900 nm) hyperspectral camera, we predict maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vc,max, R2=0.79) maximum electron transport rate in given conditions (J1800, R2=0.59), maximal light-saturated photosynthesis (Pmax, R2=0.54), chlorophyll content (R2=0.87), the Chl a/b ratio (R2=0.63), carbon content (R2=0.47), and nitrogen content (R2=0.49). Model predictions did not improve when using two cameras spanning 400–1800 nm, suggesting a robust, widely applicable and more ‘cost-effective’ pipeline requiring only a single VNIR camera. The analysis pipeline and methods can be used in any cropping system with modified species-specific PLSR analysis to offer a high-throughput field phenotyping screening for germplasm with improved photosynthetic performance in field trials.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Solution for Predictive Physical Modeling in CdTe and Other Thin-Film PV Technologies

The main goal of this work was to eliminate the ambiguity between the observed performance changes under stress and their physical root cause by enabling a depth of modeling that takes account of diffusion and drift at the atomistic level coupled to the electronic subsystem responsible for a PV device’s function. Development of advanced physical models describing capture/emission/ recombination phenomena relevant to multivalent dopants, amphoteric centers, and donor-acceptor pairs was also accomplished. These models, incorporating grain bulk, grain boundaries, and hetero-interface properties, were implemented in a self-contained simulation tool that drastically reduces interpretation ambiguity and, for the first time, allows for predictive design of thin-film PV devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using iterative random forest to find geospatial environmental and Sociodemographic predictors of suicide attempts

Despite a recent global decrease in suicide rates, death by suicide has increased in the United States. It is therefore imperative to identify the risk factors associated with suicide attempts to combat this growing epidemic. In this study, we aim to identify potential risk factors of suicide attempt using geospatial features in an Artificial intelligence framework. We use iterative Random Forest, an explainable artificial intelligence method, to predict suicide attempts using data from the Million Veteran Program. This cohort incorporated 405,540 patients with 391,409 controls and 14,131 attempts. Our predictive model incorporates multiple climatic features at ZIP-code-level geospatial resolution. We additionally consider demographic features from the American Community Survey as well as the number of firearms and alcohol vendors per 10,000 people to assess the contributions of proximal environment, access to means, and restraint decrease to suicide attempts. In total 1,784 features were included in the predictive model. Our results show that geographic areas with higher concentrations of married males living with spouses are predictive of lower rates of suicide attempts, whereas geographic areas where males are more likely to live alone and to rent housing are predictive of higher rates of suicide attempts. We also identified climatic features that were associated with suicide attempt risk by age group. Additionally, we observed that firearms and alcohol vendors were associated with increased risk for suicide attempts irrespective of the age group examined, but that their effects were small in comparison to the top features. Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of social determinants and environmental factors in understanding suicide risk among veterans.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

P-model v1.0: an optimality-based light use efficiency model for simulating ecosystem gross primary production

Terrestrial photosynthesis is the basis for vegetation growth and drives the land carbon cycle. Accurately simulating gross primary production (GPP, ecosystem-level apparent photosynthesis) is key for satellite monitoring and Earth system model predictions under climate change. While robust models exist for describing leaf-level photosynthesis, predictions diverge due to uncertain photosynthetic traits and parameters which vary on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we describe and evaluate a GPP (photosynthesis per unit ground area) model, the P-model, that combines the Farquhar–von Caemmerer–Berry model for C 3 photosynthesis with an optimality principle for the carbon assimilation–transpiration trade-off, and predicts a multi-day average light use efficiency (LUE) for any climate and C 3 vegetation type. The model builds on the theory developed in Prentice et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2017a) and is extended to include low temperature effects on the intrinsic quantum yield and an empirical soil moisture stress factor. The model is forced with site-level data of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) and meteorological data and is evaluated against GPP estimates from a globally distributed network of ecosystem flux measurements. Although the P-model requires relatively few inputs, the R 2 for predicted versus observed GPP based on the full model setup is 0.75 (8 d mean, 126 sites) – similar to comparable satellite-data-driven GPP models but without predefined vegetation-type-specific parameters. The R 2 is reduced to 0.70 when not accounting for the reduction in quantum yield at low temperatures and effects of low soil moisture on LUE. The R 2 for the P-model-predicted LUE is 0.32 (means by site) and 0.48 (means by vegetation type). Applying this model for global-scale simulations yields a total global GPP of 106–122 Pg C yr –1 (mean of 2001–2011), depending on the fAPAR forcing data. The P-model provides a simple but powerful method for predicting – rather than prescribing – light use efficiency and simulating terrestrial photosynthesis across a wide range of conditions. The model is available as an R package (rpmodel).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗