Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Predictive Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Model-driven prediction for accelerator magnet diagnostics to improve operation reliability

Reliability is one of the most critical metrics for accelerator operation, especially in user facilities. To reduce costly facility downtime and provide an operational environment where system performance can be reliably predicted in support of scientific studies, we are developing a model-driven approach for prediction and anomaly detection. Here, in this study, we present the application of a model-driven method that employs a linear regression model to predict the future temperature, in real time, of accelerator magnets at the NSLS-II light source. This approach enables proactive identification of magnet-heating issues, facilitating magnet flushing prior to the occurrence of permanent damage without interrupting machine operation. The implementation of this method in the NSLS-II control room is described and the analysis of the online results is presented. The results demonstrate the model’s effectiveness in providing early alerts to engineers and improving the reliability of accelerator operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Constitutive Modeling for Predicting High-Temperature Flow Behavior in Aluminum 5083+10 Wt Pct SiC{sub p} Composite

A constitutive model capable of predicting material flow behavior with high precision is essential for optimizing secondary processing parameters through simulation techniques. In this study, the hot deformation behavior of aluminum 5083+10 wt pct SiC particulate composite was predicted using constitutive equations based on the modified Johnson–Cook (JC), modified Zerilli–Armstrong (ZA), and strain-compensated Arrhenius models. The models were established on the basis of the true stress–strain values obtained from an isothermal hot compression test conducted on the INSTRON 8801 universal tensile testing machine under a temperature range of 473 K to 773 K and strain rate of 0.01 to 10 s{sup −1}. The prediction ability of the modified models was compared by calculating the correlation coefficient (R), average absolute relative error, and relative error. All the models could precisely predict the hot flow behavior of the composite. The modified ZA model had the highest accuracy. The JC model required the least number of material constants and had the lowest calculation time, followed by the modified ZA and strain-compensated Arrhenius models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Ecosystem biogeochemistry model parameterization: Do more flux data result in a better model in predicting carbon flux?

Reliability of terrestrial ecosystem models highly depends on the quantity and quality of thedata that have been used to calibrate the models. Nowadays, in situ observations of carbon fluxes areabundant. However, the knowledge of how much data (data length) and which subset of the time seriesdata (data period) should be used to effectively calibrate the model is still lacking. This study uses theAmeriFlux carbon flux data to parameterize the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) with an adjoint-baseddata assimilation technique for various ecosystem types. Parameterization experiments are thus conductedto explore the impact of both data length and data period on the uncertainty reduction of the posteriormodel parameters and the quantification of site and regional carbon dynamics. We find that: the modelis better constrained when it uses two-year data comparing to using one-year data. Further, two-year datais sufficient in calibrating TEM’s carbon dynamics, since using three-year data could only marginallyimprove the model performance at our study sites; the model is better constrained with the data thathave a higher‘‘climate variability’’than that having a lower one. The climate variability is used to measurethe overall possibility of the ecosystem to experience all climatic conditions including drought and extremeair temperatures and radiation; the U.S. regional simulations indicate that the effect of calibration datalength on carbon dynamics is amplified at regional and temporal scales, leading to large discrepanciesamong different parameterization experiments, especially in July and August. Our findings areconditioned on the specific model we used and the calibration sites we selected. The optimal calibrationdata length may not be suitable for other models. However, this study demonstrates that there may exist athreshold for calibration data length and simply using more data would not guarantee a better modelparameterization and prediction. More importantly, climate variability might be an effective indicator ofinformation within the data, which could help data selection for model parameterization. As a result, we believe ourfindings will benefit the ecosystem modeling community in using multiple-year data to improve modelpredictability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Overview of the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database–Thermophysical, Version 4.0 (MSTDB-TP V.4.0)

A central repository of thermophysical and thermochemical properties of molten salt compositions of relevance to molten salt reactors (MSRs) is vital in supporting the broad community of MSR developers, who are at various stages of developing and deploying their reactor designs. In general, these MSR designs differ significantly from developer to developer (e.g., with respect to the hardness of the neutron spectra, level of fissile loading, target multicomponent temperatures and power levels, and moderating capabilities). Therefore, the fuel and coolant salts being considered vary greatly: they may be chlorides or fluorides, they utilize different actinides at different ratios, and the cations in the melt are selected based on perceived advantages and disadvantages. Considering the general need for thermal properties, and the vastness of the array of potential candidate salt mixtures, the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database (MSTDB) was initiated in 2018 with the goal of providing thermophysical and thermochemical characterization of key molten salt compounds and mixtures across their temperature and compositional domains. The MSTDB is thus divided into the thermophysical arm (MSTDB-TP) and the thermochemical arm (MSTDB-TC). The MSTDB is an effort funded by the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, and the MSR Campaign. This report provides an overview of the MSTDB-TP v4.0 in terms of the data contained within, the state of the tools used to access the data, the availability of predictive models that leverage the raw data in the database, the preliminary status of developmental efforts that are currently underway, and an account of future goals for MSTDB-TP. The primary goal for the update from MSTDB-TP v.3.1 to v4.0 was the incorporation of surface tension data into the database; this property is important for thermal hydraulics modeling and species transport in other tools that have been developed under the NEAMS program. A breakdown of the surface tension data that have been added into MSTDB-TP v4.0 is provided herein, and the manner in which the quality of the data has been assessed is also documented. For MSTDB-TP v4.0, newly published thermophysical property data—primarily from collaborative experimental efforts under the MSR Campaign—have been incorporated into the database, and the resulting expansion is documented here. Because of the size to which MSTDB-TP has grown, the raw data format has now been recast into JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) format for easier connection with the MSTDB-TP application programming interface (API). Saline; the pre-existing comma-separated value (CSV) format has been deprecated but is still maintained, accessible, and up to date. As a final effort in packaging the MSTDB-TP v4.0 update, the graphical user interface (GUI) for MSTDB has been updated to allow full accessibility to the density and viscosity predictive models, which are based on Redlich-Kister expansions of MSTDB-TP raw data. Some other major aspects of this report, in terms of preliminary and future work, include: (1) documentation of the formalism and preliminary testing of a kinetic theory model that may act as a predictive model for thermal conductivity; (2) documentation of the candidate predictive models that may be considered in the future for surface tension, making use of the surface tension data now in MSTDB-TP v4.0; (3) a preliminary account of a data collection process that will enable the filling of additional gaps within MSTDB-TP, namely with data which have been collected computationally (e.g., through ab initio molecular dynamics).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Building predictive signaling models by perturbing yeast cells with time-varying stimulations resulting in distinct signaling responses

This protocol provides a step-by-step approach to perturb single cells with time-varying stimulation profiles, collect distinct signaling responses, and use these to infer a system of ordinary differential equations to capture and predict dynamics of protein-protein regulation in signal transduction pathways. The models are validated by predicting the signaling activation upon new cell stimulation conditions. In comparison to using standard step-like stimulations, application of diverse time-varying cell stimulations results in better inference of model parameters and substantially improves model predictions. For complete details on the use and results of this protocol, please refer to Jashnsaz et al. (2020).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The physics of desiccation cracks 2: Modeling and prediction of the crack patterns

Here, this paper extends the experimental results of our companion paper by modeling and predicting the onset and pattern formation of desiccation cracks in geomaterials (Ruoyu et al., 2023). Thin-layer silt samples in controlled atmospheric conditions were tested to obtain the surface strain maps with the digital image correlation (DIC) method during dehydration. Support experiments, including consolidation and displacement-controlled triaxial tests, were conducted for the properties of geomaterials. These experimental results were used to validate a viscoplastic theoretical model by comparing cracks and singularities locations that distribute following the Cnoidal wave pattern. A critical value exists in the viscoplastic model that determines the number of singularities, which accurately predicts the number of cracks in the experiment. The critical values contain two crucial parameters: rate sensitivity and λ. Rate sensitivity describes the rate-dependent stress–strain relation, while λ shows the ability of pore pressure redistribution under the external mechanical loading rate. These results provide a new view to analyze the desiccation cracks considering the rate-dependent viscoplasticity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Predictive Transient Model of the TREAT-SIRIUS Experiments

To support experiments modeling and transient analysis of the NASA-sponsored SIRIUS experiments in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT), an innovative predictive transient model has been developed to simulate various transient experiments. The developed model is based on a new approach that utilizes steady-state Monte Carlo calculations along with a surrogate model based on polynomial regression to determine the core reactivity. The reactivity is supplied to an exact point kinetics model that determines the reactor power, and it is coupled to an adiabatic feedback model to determine the fuel average temperature. In this work, the newly developed model is introduced along with validation test results considering SIRIUS-1 experiments at different power levels. The initial test results show a very good agreement with experimental data at different power levels, which indicates that the model can be used to predict the power of other transient tests.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1997

Comparison of Two-Equation Turbulence Models for Prediction of Heat Transfer on Film-Cooled Turbine Blades

A three-dimensional Navier-Stokes code has been used to compute the heat transfer coefficient on two film-cooled turbine blades, namely, the VKI rotor with six rows of cooling holes, including three rows on the shower head and the C3X vane with nine rows of holes, including five rows on the shower head. Predictions of heat transfer coefficient at the blade surface using three two-equation turbulence model specifically, Coakley's q-omega model, Chien's k-epsilon model and Wilcox's k-omega model with Menter's modifications, have been compared with the experimental data of Camci and Arts for the VKI rotor, and of Hylton et al. for the C3X vane along with predictions using the Baldwin-Lomar (B-L) model taken from Garg and Gaugler. It is found that for the cases considered here the two equation models predict the blade heat transfer somewhat better than the B-L model except immediately downstream of the film-cooled holes on the suction surface of the VKI rotor, and over most of the suction surface of the C3X vane. However, all two-equation models require 40% more computer core than the B-L model for solution, and while the q-omega and k-epsilon models need 40% more computer time than the B-L model the k-omega model requires at least 65% more time because of the slower rate of convergence. It is found that the heat transfer coefficient exhibit a strong spanwise as well as streamwise variation for both blades and all turbulence models.

Garg, Vijay K.↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-39: A Logistic Function-Based Model to Predict Organ-At-Risk (OAR) DVH in IMRT Treatment Planning

Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of a logistic function-based model to predict organ-at-risk (OAR) DVH for IMRT planning. The predicted DVHs are compared to achieved DVHs by expert treatment planners. Methods: A logistic function is used to model the OAR dose-gradient function. This function describes the percentage of the prescription dose as a function of the normal distance to PTV surface. The slope of dose-gradient function is function of relative spatial orientation of the PTV and OARs. The OAR DVH is calculated using the OAR dose-gradient function assuming that the dose is same for voxels with same normal distance to PTV. Ten previously planned prostate IMRT plans were selected to build the model, and the following plan parameters were calculated as possible features to the model: the PTV maximum/minimum dose, PTV volume, bladder/rectum volume in the radiation field, percentage of bladder/rectum overlapping with PTV, and the distance between the bladder/rectum centroid and PTV. The bladder/rectum dose-gradient function was modeled and applied on 10 additional test cases, and the predicted and achieved clinical bladder/rectum DVHs were compared: V70 (percentage of volume receiving 70Gy and above), V65, V60, V55, V50, V45, V40. Results: The following parameters were selected as model features: PTV volume, and distance of centroid of rectum/bladder to PTV. The model was tested with 10 additional patients. For bladder, the absolute difference (mean±standard deviation) between predicted and clinical DVHs is V70=−0.3±3.2, V65=−0.8±3.9, V60=1.5±4.3, V55=1.7±5.3, V50=−0.6±6.4, V45=0.6±6.5, and V40=0.9±5.7, the correlation coefficient is 0.96; for rectum, the difference is V70=1.5±3.8, V65=1.2±4.2, V60=−0.1±5.3, V55=1.0±6.6, V50=1.6±8.7, V45=1.9±9.8, and V40=1.5±10.1, and the correlation coefficient is 0.87. Conclusion: The OAR DVH can be accurately predicted using the OAR dose-gradient function in IMRT plans. This approach may be used as a quality control tool and aid less experienced planners determine benchmarks for plan quality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Integrated optical and electrical modeling of plasmon-enhanced thin film photovoltaics: A case-study on organic devices

The nanoscale light control for absorption enhancement of organic photovoltaic (OPV) devices inevitably produces strongly non-uniform optical fields. These non-uniformities due to the localized optical modes are a primary route toward absorption enhancement in OPV devices. Therefore, a rigorous modeling tool taking into account the spatial distribution of optical field and carrier generation is necessary. Presented here is a comprehensive numerical model to describe the coupled optical and electrical behavior of plasmon-enhanced polymer:fullerene bulk heterojunction (BHJ) solar cells. In this model, a position-dependent electron-hole pair generation rate that could become highly non-uniform due to photonic nanostructures is directly calculated from the optical simulations. By considering the absorption and plasmonic properties of nanophotonic gratings included in two different popular device architectures, and applying the Poisson, current continuity, and drift/diffusion equations, the model predicts quantum efficiency, short-circuit current density, and desired carrier mobility ratios for bulk heterojunction devices incorporating nanostructures for light management. In particular, the model predicts a significant degradation of device performance when the carrier species with lower mobility are generated far from the collecting electrode. Consequently, an inverted device architecture is preferred for materials with low hole mobility. This is especially true for devices that include plasmonic nanostructures. Additionally, due to the incorporation of a plasmonic nanostructure, we use simulations to theoretically predict absorption band broadening of a BHJ into energies below the band gap, resulting in a 4.8% increase in generated photocurrent.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Damage Models for Predicting the Non-Linear Response of Laminates Under Matrix Dominated Loading Conditions

Five models for matrix damage in fiber reinforced laminates are evaluated for matrix-dominated loading conditions under plane stress and are compared both qualitatively and quantitatively. The emphasis of this study is on a comparison of the response of embedded plies subjected to a homogeneous stress state. Three of the models are specifically designed for modeling the non-linear response due to distributed matrix cracking under homogeneous loading, and also account for non-linear (shear) behavior prior to the onset of cracking. The remaining two models are localized damage models intended for predicting local failure at stress concentrations. The modeling approaches of distributed vs. localized cracking as well as the different formulations of damage initiation and damage progression are compared and discussed.

Schuecker, Clara↗
NASA NTRS1984

An improved computer model for prediction of axial gas turbine performance losses

The calculation model performs a rapid preliminary pitchline optimization of axial gas turbine annular flowpath geometry, as well as an initial estimate of blade profile shapes, given only a minimum of thermodynamic cycle requirements. No geometric parameters need be specified. The following preliminary design data are determined: (1) the optimum flowpath geometry, within mechanical stress limits; (2) initial estimates of cascade blade shapes; and (3) predictions of expected turbine performance. The model uses an inverse calculation technique whereby blade profiles are generated by designing channels to yield a specified velocity distribution on the two walls. Velocity distributions are then used to calculate the cascade loss parameters. Calculated blade shapes are used primarily to determine whether the assumed velocity loadings are physically realistic. Model verification is accomplished by comparison of predicted turbine geometry and performance with an array of seven NASA single-stage axial gas turbine configurations.

Jenkins, R. M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Control of Sodium Cold Trap Purification Temperature Using LSTM System Identification

This study investigates the dynamic regulation of the sodium cold trap purification temperature at Argonne National Laboratory’s liquid sodium test facility, employing long short-term memory (LSTM) system identification techniques. The investigation introduces an innovative hybrid approach by integrating model predictive control (MPC) based on first principles dynamic models with a multi-step time–frequency LSTM model in predicting the temperature profiles of a sodium cold trap purification system. The long short-term memory–model predictive controller (LSTM-MPC) model employs a sliding window scheme to gather training samples for multi-step prediction, leveraging historical data to construct predictive models that capture the non-linearities of the complex system dynamics without explicitly modeling the underlying physical processes. The performance of the LSTM-MPC and MPC were evaluated through simulation experiments, where both models were assessed on their capacity to maintain the cold trap temperature within predefined set-points while minimizing deviations and overshoots. Results obtained show how the data-driven LSTM-MPC model demonstrates stability and adaptability. In contrast, the traditional MPC model exhibits irregularities, particularly evident as overshoots around set-point limits, which can potentially compromise its effectiveness over long prediction time intervals. The findings obtained offer valuable insights into integrating data-driven techniques for enhancing real-time monitoring systems.

LSTM-MPC↗
NASA NTRS2017

Comparison of Multiscale Method of Cells-Based Models for Predicting Elastic Properties of Filament Wound C/C-SiC

Three different multiscale models, based on the method of cells (generalized and high fidelity) micromechanics models were developed and used to predict the elastic properties of C/C-SiC composites. In particular, the following multiscale modeling strategies were employed: Concurrent multiscale modeling of all phases using the generalized method of cells, synergistic (two-way coupling in space) multiscale modeling with the generalized method of cells, and hierarchical (one-way coupling in space) multiscale modeling with the high fidelity generalized method of cells. The three models are validated against data from a hierarchical multiscale finite element model in the literature for a repeating unit cell of C/C-SiC. Furthermore, the multiscale models are used in conjunction with classical lamination theory to predict the stiffness of C/C-SiC plates manufactured via a wet filament winding and liquid silicon infiltration process recently developed by the German Aerospace Institute.

multiscale modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microstructure Scale Lithium-Ion Battery Modeling: Part III. When and Where Lithium Plating Occurs and its Correlation with the Electrode Microstructure

Li-ion battery performance and degradation are closely related to the cell’s underlying electrode microstructure. Electrode microstructures are typically characterized with volume-averaged properties that neglect the impact of local heterogeneities. However, local heterogeneities create hot spots that can trigger degradation onset. Herein, a microstructure scale electrochemical model is used to investigate the impact of microstructure heterogeneity on lithium plating. The model predicts lithium plating is not uniform, even when considering a relatively small portion of the electrode (a cross-sectional area of 154×144 µm 2 ), preferring to plate on larger particles as compared to smaller particles. While local heterogeneities control where plating occurs, the model predicts that volume-averaged properties control when plating occurs. Additionally, the model predicts that the active material specific surface area has a linear relationship with the plating onset. However, the linear relationship between increased active material surface area and delayed plating response appears to be sensitive to the microstructure feature used to increase the active interface area. Here, a comparative case-study is explored where the specific surface area is increased by either reducing the active material particle diameter, adding open-porosity cracks, or increasing the active material surface roughness. The model predicts that increasing the specific surface area by reducing the active material particle diameter is the most effective strategy for delaying lithium plating. At 6C, reducing particle size is shown to be 3 and 20 times more effective than, respectively, adding open-porosity cracks and increasing surface roughness. A dual-layer electrode architecture combining gradations both for average properties and uniformities is eventually proposed to improve homogeneous material utilization and reduce degradation at high charge rates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2013

Development and Validation of a Computational Model for Predicting the Behavior of Plumes from Large Solid Rocket Motors

Exhaust plumes from large solid rocket motors fired at ATK's Promontory test site carry particulates to high altitudes and typically produce deposits that fall on regions downwind of the test area. As populations and communities near the test facility grow, ATK has become increasingly concerned about the impact of motor testing on those surrounding communities. To assess the potential impact of motor testing on the community and to identify feasible mitigation strategies, it is essential to have a tool capable of predicting plume behavior downrange of the test stand. A software package, called PlumeTracker, has been developed and validated at ATK for this purpose. The code is a point model that offers a time-dependent, physics-based description of plume transport and precipitation. The code can utilize either measured or forecasted weather data to generate plume predictions. Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) data and field observations from twenty-three historical motor test fires at Promontory were collected to test the predictive capability of PlumeTracker. Model predictions for plume trajectories and deposition fields were found to correlate well with the collected dataset.

Wells, Jason E.↗