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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

A satellite-borne radar wind sensor (RAWS)

Modeling global atmospheric circulations and forecasting the weather would improve if worldwide information on winds aloft were available. Accurate prediction of weather is important to agriculture, shipping, air traffic, and many other fields. Global system models of climate are of great importance. Current global atmospheric models use pressure measurements and thermodynamic properties to calculate the effects of wind for use in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Inputs to the NWP models are temperature, pressure and wind velocities at different heights. Clearly direct wind measurements could significantly improve the NWP model performance. The RAdar Wind Sounder (RAWS) program at the University of Kansas is a study of the feasibility and the trade-offs in the design of a space-based radar system to measure wind vectors. This can be done by measuring the Doppler shift of cloud and rain returns from three or more points and calculating the components of the wind vector. The RAWS study to date uses the candidate system selected after preliminary study of frequencies and sensitivities. Two frequencies chosen, 10 and 35 GHz, allow higher sensitivity for clouds and more penetration for rain. The past year was devoted to modeling the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) achievable for the two frequencies. The determination of SNR versus cloud penetration depth used a cloud backscattering and attenuation model in the appropriate radar equation. Calculations assumed reasonable losses in reception and transmission, in addition to the atmospheric attenuation. We discovered that ice clouds provide a higher SNR than previously calculated, but some water clouds give lower SNRs than we calculated before. One of the primary issues in the SNR calculation was the choice of the drop size distribution. Although Xin used several distributions (e.g., log normal, Khrigian and Mazin), this year we used the Deirmendjian cloud model. SNR versus cloud penetration plots were generated to validate the candidate system. Rain, which appears in the cloud models at the lower altitudes, provides ample SNR, as do the higher clouds composed of ice particles. However, in some cloud situations we found the sensitivity for the clouds was marginal or inadequate. At 35 GHz, two of the cloud models characterized by 1 to 2 g/cu m of water content at altitudes extending from 150 to 1500 meters, produced a sufficient SNR. Other models, however, with water contents ranging from 0.5 to 4 g/cu m and altitudes up to 4000 meters, exhibit SNR of -3 to -23 dB, largely because of attenuation in the upper cloud layers. These results coupled with the lower SNR at 10 GHz, led to an investigation of alternate frequencies. The rain present beneath these clouds provides adequate SNR at 10 GHz, and in most cases, at GHz.

Moore, Richard K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A research program in empirical computer science

During the grant reporting period our primary activities have been to begin preparation for the establishment of a research program in experimental computer science. The focus of research in this program will be safety-critical systems. Many questions that arise in the effort to improve software dependability can only be addressed empirically. For example, there is no way to predict the performance of the various proposed approaches to building fault-tolerant software. Performance models, though valuable, are parameterized and cannot be used to make quantitative predictions without experimental determination of underlying distributions. In the past, experimentation has been able to shed some light on the practical benefits and limitations of software fault tolerance. It is common, also, for experimentation to reveal new questions or new aspects of problems that were previously unknown. A good example is the Consistent Comparison Problem that was revealed by experimentation and subsequently studied in depth. The result was a clear understanding of a previously unknown problem with software fault tolerance. The purpose of a research program in empirical computer science is to perform controlled experiments in the area of real-time, embedded control systems. The goal of the various experiments will be to determine better approaches to the construction of the software for computing systems that have to be relied upon. As such it will validate research concepts from other sources, provide new research results, and facilitate the transition of research results from concepts to practical procedures that can be applied with low risk to NASA flight projects. The target of experimentation will be the production software development activities undertaken by any organization prepared to contribute to the research program. Experimental goals, procedures, data analysis and result reporting will be performed for the most part by the University of Virginia.

Knight, J. C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Product Consistency Test Results for the LXC-Series Glasses

This report provides chemical analysis of a series of Product Consistency Test (PCT) leachates from simulated nuclear waste glasses. The resulting data will be used in the development of improved property/composition models. For some of the glass leachates, minor scatter among the triplicate values of some analytes was observed. For other leachates, there were more significant differences among the triplicate values. A review of the PCT data noted that there was little difference between the normalized values on the basis of targeted or measured glass composition. Several of the canister centerline cooled study glasses have NC i values that are greater than the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant immobilized low-activity waste constraint of 4 g/L for B and Na. The results of these glasses will help ensure the ability of advanced glass performance models to appropriately predict acceptable compositions. For many of the study glasses, heat treatment had only a marginal impact on the NC i values. The samples of the Environmental Assessment (EA) reference glass included with each PCT set had generally consistent NC i values. The release rates for boron and sodium, and for sodium and silicon were highly correlated for the study glasses, while for the other analytes, less correlation was observed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Status of Multiple Channel Fuel Performance Capabilities Within the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Safety Analysis Software

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) is a fast-running simulation tool used to perform deterministic analysis of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. It is a critical element of safety analysis capabilities for the U.S. Department of Energy and is utilized within industry to perform the transient safety analyses required to support the licensing of Liquid Metal-cooled Fast Reactors (LMFRs). Although SAS is exceptionally fast for most transient scenarios, fuel performance calculations, along with the associated pre-transient characterization of the fuel pin, may be required for transient scenarios where fuel pin failure is hypothesized. Both the pre-transient characterization and the transient fuel performance calculation are necessary to properly quantify margins to potential fuel failure and assess the time spent potentially exceeding such margins during events. While safety analysis calculations with fuel performance models provide a more detailed characterization of the reactor during a transient, the pre-transient characterization can be time-consuming and computationally expensive. Often, large numbers of fuel pins have been exposed to similar pre-transient irradiation conditions. Similarly, the same pre-transient fuel characterization may be applicable to numerous transient conditions. This provides an opportunity to optimize the SAS computational framework such that pre-transient fuel characterization can be shared across multiple channels (fuel pins) and across multiple simulations, thus dramatically reducing overall computational costs. This report summarizes progress toward enhancing the SAS computational framework to support shared, multiple channel fuel performance characterizations intended to significantly reduce computational costs. Preliminary testing has shown that the computational time saved by using the pre-transient sharing capability is approximately equal to the time it takes to perform the pre-transient characterization.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Modeling and Simulation Reliable Spacecraft On-Board Computing

The proposed project will investigate modeling and simulation-driven testing and fault tolerance schemes for Spacecraft On-Board Computing, thereby achieving reliable spacecraft telecommunication. A spacecraft communication system has inherent capabilities of providing multipoint and broadcast transmission, connectivity between any two distant nodes within a wide-area coverage, quick network configuration /reconfiguration, rapid allocation of space segment capacity, and distance-insensitive cost. To realize the capabilities above mentioned, both the size and cost of the ground-station terminals have to be reduced by using reliable, high-throughput, fast and cost-effective on-board computing system which has been known to be a critical contributor to the overall performance of space mission deployment. Controlled vulnerability of mission data (measured in sensitivity), improved performance (measured in throughput and delay) and fault tolerance (measured in reliability) are some of the most important features of these systems. The system should be thoroughly tested and diagnosed before employing a fault tolerance into the system. Testing and fault tolerance strategies should be driven by accurate performance models (i.e. throughput, delay, reliability and sensitivity) to find an optimal solution in terms of reliability and cost. The modeling and simulation tools will be integrated with a system architecture module, a testing module and a module for fault tolerance all of which interacting through a centered graphical user interface.

Park, Nohpill↗
DOE OSTI2023

The reactive flow evolution of the polymer-bonded explosive PBX 9502: Experiments and model validation in extreme pressure regimes

The shock-to-detonation transition properties of the triaminotrinitrobenzene based PBX 9502 high explosive (HE) are experimentally and computationally explored in extremely high input pressure conditions. These include both slightly sub-Chapman–Jouguet and overdriven input pressure conditions, namely, ∼25 and ∼31 GPa, respectively. Our experiments capture the transient buildup of a shock-induced reaction via measurement of HE and polymethyl methacrylate window interface particle velocity profiles for a variety of sample thicknesses for this insensitive HE. These observations necessitate extremely thin explosive samples, and the high rates of reaction provide a considerable challenge to optical diagnostics. Samples at these thicknesses also provide an opportunity for evaluation of potential micro-structure effects on the resulting shock-to-detonation-transition measurements. To address this, the thin samples are also characterized via x-ray micro-computed tomography. Finally, a pair of previously established continuum-level detonation performance modeling approaches for PBX 9502 were used to analyze the experiments. The employed model variants crucially differ in their definition of each model’s empirical reaction rate functional form, utilization of shock state quantities, and local flow variable dependencies. As a result, the present experiments provide a novel platform to evaluate the quantitative and qualitative consequences stemming from these modeling choices in a challenging initiation scenario, largely beyond the chosen calibration range of either model. This new experimental information will provide a platform for both improved physics and model parameterizations for this well-studied explosive.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1974

A Monte Carlo investigation of thrust imbalance of solid rocket motor pairs

A technique is described for theoretical, statistical evaluation of the thrust imbalance of pairs of solid-propellant rocket motors (SRMs) firing in parallel. Sets of the significant variables, determined as a part of the research, are selected using a random sampling technique and the imbalance calculated for a large number of motor pairs. The performance model is upgraded to include the effects of statistical variations in the ovality and alignment of the motor case and mandrel. Effects of cross-correlations of variables are minimized by selecting for the most part completely independent input variables, over forty in number. The imbalance is evaluated in terms of six time - varying parameters as well as eleven single valued ones which themselves are subject to statistical analysis. A sample study of the thrust imbalance of 50 pairs of 146 in. dia. SRMs of the type to be used on the space shuttle is presented. The FORTRAN IV computer program of the analysis and complete instructions for its use are included. Performance computation time for one pair of SRMs is approximately 35 seconds on the IBM 370/155 using the FORTRAN H compiler.

Sforzini, R. H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx): 1. Scaling and Statistical Properties of Sea-Ice Deformation Fields

As the sea-ice modeling community is shifting to advanced numerical frameworks, developing new sea-ice rheologies, and increasing model spatial resolution, ubiquitous deformation features in the Arctic sea ice are now being resolved by sea-ice models. Initiated at the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis, the Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx) aims at evaluating state-of-the-art sea-ice models using existing and new metrics to understand how the simulated deformation fields are affected by different representations of sea-ice physics (rheology) and by model configuration. Part 1 of the SIREx analysis is concerned with evaluation of the statistical distribution and scaling properties of sea-ice deformation fields from 35 different simulations against those from the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System (RGPS). For the first time, the viscous-plastic (and the elastic-viscous-plastic variant), elastic-anisotropic-plastic, and Maxwell-elasto-brittle rheologies are compared in a single study. We find that both plastic and brittle sea-ice rheologies have the potential to reproduce the observed RGPS deformation statistics, including multi-fractality. Model configuration (e.g., numerical convergence, atmospheric representation, spatial resolution) and physical parameterizations (e.g., ice strength parameters and ice thickness distribution) both have effects as important as the choice of sea-ice rheology on the deformation statistics. It is therefore not straightforward to attribute model performance to a specific rheological framework using current deformation metrics. In light of these results, we further evaluate the statistical properties of simulated Linear Kinematic Features in a SIREx Part 2 companion paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Product consistency test results for the LAW Phase 4 gases

In this report, the Savannah River National Laboratory provides chemical analysis of Product Consistency Test (PCT) leachates from a series of simulated nuclear waste glasses fabricated at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The series included quenched and canister-centerline cooled (CCC) versions of the glasses. The resulting data will be used in the development of enhanced property/composition models for waste vitrification at Hanford. For some of the glass leachates, minor scatter among the triplicate values of some analytes were observed. For other leachates, there were more significant differences among the triplicate values. A review of the PCT data noted that there was little difference between the normalized values based on targeted or measured glass composition. Several of the study glasses have normalized concentration of element “i” (NCi) values that are greater than the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant immobilized low-activity waste constraint of 4 g/L for boron (B), sodium (Na), and silicon (Si). The results of these glasses will help ensure the ability of advanced glass performance models to appropriately predict acceptable compositions. For the study glasses with NCi values exceeding 4 g/L, the CCC heat treatment samples had generally lower NCi values than quenched samples. The samples of the Environmental Assessment (EA) reference glass included with each PCT set had generally consistent NCi values. The release rates for boron (B), potassium (K), lithium (Li), sodium (Na), and silicon (Si) were highly correlated for the study glasses.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Intelligence to Detect, Characterise, and Defend against Influence Operations in the Information Environment

Social media has enabled a new era of manipulation in the information and cognitive domains. Deceptive content—misleading, falsified, and fabricated—is routinely created and spread in the modern social media environment with the intent to create confusion and widen political and social divides, and exploit the societal conflict exacerbated by these divides in the real-world (aka physical domain). Such disinformation campaigns demonstrate a threat to the integrity of economic, political, cultural, public health, and national security institutions around the world. In this work we overview our artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities to detect, describe, and defend against information operations on Twitter as an example social platform to understand the influence of misleading and falsified content diffusion and better enable those charged with defending against such manipulation to enable responsive parties to counter it. We first present novel linguistically-informed deep learning (DL) models for misinformation and disinformation detection, and present an in-depth linguistic analysis of psycho-linguistic markers across broad deception categories. We then demonstrate how our models perform in the multilingual and multimodal setting and categorize falsified and misleading content based on the intent to deceive. We also provide a large-scale analysis to describe user behavior and spread patterns while engaging with deceptive content and report novel findings about the immediate diffusion of deceptive content by characterizing the vulnerable sub-populations and their demographics, and explicitly measuring speed and scale of deception spread to uncover who shares deceptive content, how quickly, how much, and how evenly. In addition, we measure audience reactions to misinformation and disinformation at scale, distinguishing the reactions of users identified as bots versus humans. Finally, we take advantage of deep translation and generation models to create unique solutions for real-time defense against digital deception and discuss how to apply causal inference to prescribe and intervene into strategic communications jointly across information, cognitive, and physical domains.

artificial intelligence, deep learning, neural lan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Continued Testing and Modeling of the AirSquared All-Metal Tritium Scroll Pump

The implementation of fusion energy requires the processing of the deuterium-tritium mixture used to fuel the reaction. Many gas processing operations require either a gas-motive force or a pressure gradient across a system; both are achieved using vacuum pumps. However, because of the material challenges of working with tritium, specialized pumps are required that use only metal on wetted surfaces. This prevents tritium retention and degradation of materials such as oils and polymers and reduces the generation of tritiated waste. Typical gas handling systems for tritium operations involve metal bellows pumps, all-metal scroll pumps, and metal turbomolecular pumps, depending on the pressure requirements. With the industry standard Normetex Type 15 m 3 /h (typically referred to as the Normetex 15) pump no longer available, the fusion market requires viable alternatives. In this study, we test an American-made pump, the AirSquared V16H034A-C01, and compare its performance to the Normetex. A performance model of the AirSquared pump is also produced, which can be applied to general process models to generate an accurate description of pressures and flows through various unit operations.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2017

The PMIP4 Contribution to CMIP6-Part 4: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum Experiments and PMIP4 Sensitivity Experiments

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.

Kageyama, Masa↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technical note: Uncertainties in eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes in a semiarid sagebrush ecosystem caused by gap-filling approaches

Abstract. Gap-filling eddy covariance CO2 fluxes is challenging at dryland sites due to small CO2 fluxes. Here, four machine learning (ML) algorithms including artificial neural network (ANN), k-nearest neighbors (KNNs), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) are employed and evaluated for gap-filling CO2 fluxes over a semiarid sagebrush ecosystem with different lengths of artificial gaps. The ANN and RF algorithms outperform the KNN and SVM in filling gaps ranging from hours to days, with the RF being more time efficient than the ANN. Performances of the ANN and RF are largely degraded for extremely long gaps of 2 months. In addition, our results suggest that there is no need to fill the daytime and nighttime net ecosystem exchange (NEE) gaps separately when using the ANN and RF. With the ANN and RF, the gap-filling-induced uncertainties in the annual NEE at this site are estimated to be within 16 g C m−2, whereas the uncertainties by the KNN and SVM can be as large as 27 g C m−2. To better fill extremely long gaps of a few months, we test a two-layer gap-filling framework based on the RF. With this framework, the model performance is improved significantly, especially for the nighttime data. Therefore, this approach provides an alternative in filling extremely long gaps to characterize annual carbon budgets and interannual variability in dryland ecosystems.

Yao, Jingyu↗
NASA NTRS2021

The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4, most of which are PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3, most of which are PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the global averages of the PMIP4 simulations span a larger range in terms of mean annual surface air temperature and mean annual precipitation compared to the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, with some PMIP4 simulations reaching a globally colder and drier state. However, the multi-model global cooling average is similar for the PMIP4 and PMIP3 ensembles, while the multi-model PMIP4 mean annual precipitation average is drier than the PMIP3 one. There are important differences in both atmospheric and oceanic circulations between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large. Therefore, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land–sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the paleoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. These results point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance.

Last Glacial Maximum↗
NASA NTRS2016

Enhanced Representation of Soil NO Emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.0.2

Modeling of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions is highly uncertain and may misrepresent its spatial and temporal distribution. This study builds upon a recently introduced parameterization to improve the timing and spatial distribution of soil NO emission estimates in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The parameterization considers soil parameters, meteorology, land use, and mineral nitrogen (N) availability to estimate NO emissions. We incorporate daily year-specific fertilizer data from the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agricultural model to replace the annual generic data of the initial parameterization, and use a 12km resolution soil biome map over the continental USA. CMAQ modeling for July 2011 shows slight differences in model performance in simulating fine particulate matter and ozone from Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) sites and NO2 columns from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite retrievals. We also simulate how the change in soil NO emissions scheme affects the expected O3 response to projected emissions reductions.

remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2023

DeepAstroUDA: semi-supervised universal domain adaptation for cross-survey galaxy morphology classification and anomaly detection

Abstract Artificial intelligence methods show great promise in increasing the quality and speed of work with large astronomical datasets, but the high complexity of these methods leads to the extraction of dataset-specific, non-robust features. Therefore, such methods do not generalize well across multiple datasets. We present a universal domain adaptation method, DeepAstroUDA , as an approach to overcome this challenge. This algorithm performs semi-supervised domain adaptation (DA) and can be applied to datasets with different data distributions and class overlaps. Non-overlapping classes can be present in any of the two datasets (the labeled source domain, or the unlabeled target domain), and the method can even be used in the presence of unknown classes. We apply our method to three examples of galaxy morphology classification tasks of different complexities (three-class and ten-class problems), with anomaly detection: (1) datasets created after different numbers of observing years from a single survey (Legacy Survey of Space and Time mock data of one and ten years of observations); (2) data from different surveys (Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and DECaLS); and (3) data from observing fields with different depths within one survey (wide field and Stripe 82 deep field of SDSS). For the first time, we demonstrate the successful use of DA between very discrepant observational datasets. DeepAstroUDA is capable of bridging the gap between two astronomical surveys, increasing classification accuracy in both domains (up to 40 % on the unlabeled data), and making model performance consistent across datasets. Furthermore, our method also performs well as an anomaly detection algorithm and successfully clusters unknown class samples even in the unlabeled target dataset.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Multiphysics Evaluation of Annular Uranium-Zirconium Metallic Fuels [Poster]

This study examines the performance of U-10Zr annular metallic fuel rodlets which were experimentally evaluated as part of the Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC). The AFC mission is to develop novel fuel technologies and facilitate the implementation of those technologies by industry partners. A key objective is to improve steady-state and transient performance over current fuel types. The experiments of interest in this study included annular metallic U-Zr fuel rodlets within HT-9 cladding which were placed in SS-316 capsules and inserted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). Certain mechanical and thermal conditions cannot be directly evaluated through experiments and fuel performance modeling is used to shed light on this evolution over time. In this study, BISON Multiphysics simulations are leveraged to investigate the state of the fuel system throughout and after the experimental conditions.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2002

Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) Update

The Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) has developed a flexible systems analysis framework to identify long-term technology needs, quantify payoffs for technology investments, and assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics area. For this, ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. Concepts for transportation systems are selected based on relevance to the ASTP and integrated concept models (ICM) of these concepts are developed. Key technologies of interest are identified and projections are made of their characteristics with respect to their impacts on key aspects of the specific concepts of interest. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework in ModelCenter. This framework permits rapid sensitivity analysis, single point design assessment, and a full probabilistic assessment of each concept with respect to both embedded and enhancing technologies. Probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP using a multivariate decision making process to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. ITAC program is currently finishing the assessment of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO), rocket-based combined cycle (RBCC) concept and a TSTO turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) concept developed by the team with inputs from NASA. A baseline all rocket TSTO concept is also being developed for comparison. Boeing has recently submitted a performance model for their Flexible Aerospace System Solution for Tomorrow (FASST) concept and the ISAT program will provide inputs for a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) TBCC based concept in the near-term. Both of these latter concepts will be analyzed within the ITAC framework over the summer. This paper provides a status update of the ITAC program.

Taylor, J. L.↗