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Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

This report, Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities , explores ways to automatically identify residential homes with enclosure retrofit opportunities; estimate prospective savings; and perform evaluation, measurement, and verification using interval data from communicating thermostats.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cost and Performance Projections for Coal- and Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants

This report provides quantitative estimates of future cost and performance improvements for fossil-fueled power plants equipped with carbon capture developed through the adaption/modification of relevant Aspen Plus ® case study models from published NETL techno-economic analyses. The cost and performance estimates in this report are meant to represent prospective improvements that may be realized for low-carbon-emitting PC and NGCC power plants through robust commercial deployment (e.g., learning by doing) of high TRL technologies as well as additional investments in targeted RD&D activities. The methodology used to develop the estimates in this report is intended to allow direct comparison of the technology improvements with the SOA baseline published in NETL’s Fossil Energy Baseline (Rev 4a) Report.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau (Final Report)

This is the final technical report for the DOE EERE BTO project Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau. The project implemented a community energy campaign to deploy heat pumps and efficiency for residents of Juneau, in Southeast Alaska. The project helped Juneau make progress towards its renewable energy goal of reaching 80% renewable energy for space heating by 2045. The Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau (ICE-Juneau) project began in 2020 and concluded three years later in 2023. During that time, a group of implementation partners and a research advisory team instituted a beneficial electrification campaign to promote energy savings and carbon reduction in residences of Juneau, Alaska. The campaign, Thermalize Juneau, focused on the installation of single head ductless mini-split heat pumps along with other efficiency upgrades. Thermalize Juneau was the first campaign of its kind in Alaska. After several months of planning, registration opened to the public in early 2021, and over the course of six months 164 participants enrolled. Campaign staff provided education to homeowners on heat pumps and efficiency, and each participant received a one-on-one heat pump assessment using a custom Microsoft Excel-based calculator that estimated energy savings for their residence based on building characteristics and past utility bills. Participants could also obtain a free energy audit from one of the two local energy auditors to further inform their decision. A heat pump installer, electrician, and builder were selected via a competitive RFP process. Participants who felt ready to install a heat pump or other efficiency upgrades received a site visit and custom quote from each of these contractors free of charge, and if they still felt energy upgrades were right for them, could move forward with an individual contract. Participants received a $400 heat pump installation rebate, offered by the installer if 40 heat pump installations occurred through the campaign. Overall, the campaign facilitated 75 heat pump installations (including participants that went with another contractor or heat pump model) and 30 efficiency upgrades (including participants that went with another builder or did DIY upgrades). The campaign created 3 new jobs as the heat pump installer hired an administrative assistant and two apprentices over the course of the campaign. It also helped Juneau work toward achieving its renewable energy goal of 80% renewable energy for space heating by 2045 by upgrading houses from fuel oil to heat pumps powered by the hydropower electric grid. Researchers conducted four surveys to inform Thermalize Juneau and future energy campaigns. The first surveyed existing and prospective heat pump owners in Juneau to identify barriers the campaign could address and inform recruitment efforts. Entry and exit surveys provided information on participant demographics, goals, outcomes, and suggestions for improving future campaigns. And a final survey of community members who had not participated in Thermalize Juneau gave insight on ways future campaigns could include a greater diversity of participants so they could realize similar benefits. Researchers also used pre-campaign energy modeling to predict energy savings, which was then compared to the savings estimated through aggregation of heat pump assessments and energy audits, and later to actual energy savings of 10 participants who installed a heat pump and were able to provide complete energy use data sets. In addition to energy savings, and to assist the electric utility in future planning efforts, researchers analyzed the overall change in electric use across participants with energy data and heat pump installations. They also completed a life cycle cost analysis, showing positive net present values for those displacing a fuel oil appliance, and a more mixed case for those switching from electric baseboard. This project proved the feasibility of energy campaigns, with a goal of beneficial electrification, in cold, remote locations. The Thermalize Juneau team compiled a Guidebook to Thermalize Campaigns, available online. In addition to documenting what occurred in Alaska’s first thermalize campaign, it provides tips and resources for other communities wishing to implement a similar program.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Innovative Pathways: Transforming Impact Investments to Working Capital For Early Stage Cleantech Companies: Los Angeles Cleantech Incubator (January 1, 2020 to March 31, 2020)

Project Objectives: The focus for the entirety of the last quarter was on the completion of the pilot loan funding within our portfolio, and the closing out of our DOE-CAP Grant: “Innovative Pathways: Transforming Impact Investments to Working Capital for Early Stage Cleantech Companies.” The fourteenth quarter (Q14) of the program performance was also dedicated toward two main activities: the continued fundraising efforts for a formalized LACI debt fund, as well as finalization of the lending processes for pilot underwriting amongst the LACI Team and with Mission Driven Finance. This quarter marked key successes around the workflows of the DOE-CAP grant, specifically around fund capitalization efforts. Activities during the thirteenth quarter included: 1. Finalization of the DOE-CAP grant activities and work-flows; 2. Due diligence, underwriting and issuance of one (1) loan in Q1 2021 and three (3) in Q4 2020 for technology providers in grant-funded zero emissions mobility & community pilots, in partnership with LACI and local organizations, totaling ten (10) total loans; 3. Development of fundraising and marketing materials, and distribution to 30+ possible funding sources over the course of Q13 & Q14; and 4. Reinvigoration of conversations with Mission Driven Finance, the prospective underwriting partner for key activities and governance documents, and finalization of all loan processing activities once the fund is capitalized

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Physics of Neutrino Oscillations and Neutrino Cross Sections using the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline accelerator-based neutrino experiment based in the US. NOvA uses an intense neutrino beam produced at Fermilab’s accelerator complex to make physics measurements of neutrino oscillations, neutrino cross sections, and much more. For its physics goals, NOvA uses two functionally-identical detectors. The Near Detector (ND) is situated at Fermilab, 1 km from the neutrino target and the Far Detector (FD) is located at Ash River, MN, a distance of 810 km from the neutrino source. The ND receives a high statistics neutrino flux which gives a unique opportunity for high-precision neutrino cross-section measurements and is used as a control for the oscillation analyses. The FD is used to analyze the appearance and disappearance of the neutrinos arriving from the Fermilab. The purpose of the oscillation analysis is to understand the dominance of matter over antimatter in the universe, to resolve the ordering of neutrino masses, and to resolve the octant of the neutrino mixing angle theta23. In this talk, I will give an overview of the NOvA experiment. I will also talk about the status of the NOvA’s cross-section physics program and the latest results from the oscillation analyses. I will also talk about the future prospects of the experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Applying 3D Geologic Modeling Workflows to the Argillite Reference Case (Rev. 1)

The objective of this short report is to document the application of our 3D geologic modeling workflow to an argillite (shale) host rock. Over the past four years, our team at Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed a geologic modeling workflow that can be applied to generic alluvial basins such as those found in the western United States. In “frontier” or “exploratory” basins where data are sparse, the first steps are to collect, evaluate and integrate available subsurface data into conceptual geologic models. Those models form the basis for constructing the geologic framework model, a 3D geocellular model ideally constrained by seismic and borehole data. To date we have constructed our models using “synthetic” well data derived from conceptual models, without the prospect of validating our workflow using “real” subsurface data. We were tasked to investigate whether our workflow designed for alluvial basin sediments could be applied to other potential repository host rocks. This task also provided the opportunity to work with high-quality subsurface data collected specifically for siting and evaluating a nuclear waste repository. Nagra, the Swiss governmental agency responsible for the disposal of the nation’s radioactive waste, generously provided us with data from two deep boreholes drilled through their argillaceous target formation. The aim of our proof-of-concept demonstration is to evaluate whether geostatistical methods offer a viable approach to property modeling in argillaceous rocks. Nagra provided us with the well data on the condition that we maintain confidentiality with all transferred information and results. Fortunately, Nagra posts numerous technical reports on its public website that describe the subsurface geology in great detail. All of the information and illustrations in this report related to the Swiss repository enterprise are taken from the Nagra public website.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Building Technologies Office 03.02.02.38 Milestone Report — Technology Options for Low Environmental Impact Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Systems

Due to increasing concerns about global warming, various environmental regulations will eventually phase out refrigerants used in air conditioning and refrigeration systems (e.g., R-410A, R-404A). Several refrigerants have been proposed as replacements, offering a variety of global warming potential (GWP), levels of energy efficiency and flammability. Some of these options are synthetic HFC/HFO mixtures such as R-454C and R-455A while other are commonly called naturals such as R-290 (Propane) and R-744 (Carbon Dioxide). This study discusses the merits of the leading options for air Conditioning and refrigeration systems. The fundamental requirements (environmental, performance, safety) are employed to fairly evaluate these options. Performance data and Life Cycle analysis results for these options are presented. Overall, this study provides information needed to judge the prospects of getting adequate replacement for R-410A and R-404A in a long-term sustainable basis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Children Of the Sun Solar Initiative (COSSI) (Final)

The Children Of the Sun Solar Initiative (COSSI) project is a pivotal step towards energy independence for the Spokane Tribe and the Spokane Indian Housing Authority (SIHA). It involves evaluating the solar potential of 32 SIHA and Tribal buildings, with a goal of achieving energy autonomy through renewable sources. By installing 652.5 kW of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, the project significantly reduces carbon emissions, lowers energy costs, and enhances sustainability. Key Points: (1) COSSI's mission is to empower the Spokane Tribe and SIHA with clean energy solutions, aligning with their Long-Term Energy Vision. (2) The project includes solar installations on 32 buildings, generating approximately 700,000 kWh annually. (3) It also involves collaboration with SIHA's Weatherization Program and offers training opportunities for tribal members. (4) The installations aid energy efficiency and cost reduction for high-energy-use structures. (5) The initiative advances the Tribe's economic infrastructure, fostering renewable resources and sustainable practices. (6) COSSI serves as a model for leveraging federal funding and tax credits to establish clean energy projects, while generating training and job prospects. (7) The project contributes to energy independence through the adoption of evolving solar technologies. Overall, COSSI is a forward-looking effort to usher in clean energy, enhance infrastructure, and inspire similar projects across tribal and housing authorities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Weapons Engineering Directorate (ALDW) Overview [Slides]

The "Weapons Engineering Directorate (ALDW) Overview" is a presentation for recruiting purposes to be delivered at various colleges, universities, conferences, and professional organizations. The presentation provides prospective applicants with information about LANL, ALDW, and employee benefits.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Full Technical Report: High-Rate Carbide Growth by Evaporation

Boron carbide (B 4 C) is an attractive inertial confined fusion (ICF) ablator and a unique ultra-hard material with numerous current and potential applications. What makes B 4 C attractive as an ablator is its relatively high density and the ability to form a stable glassy phase combined with excellent chemical and mechanical stability. Despite these advantages, the fabrication of B 4 C ablators has remained a challenge. Magnetron sputtering, our current frontrunner approach for B 4 C deposition, exhibits low deposition rates (< 2 μm/h) and undesirable nodular defects within the film structure that are believed to generate from the dusty plasma around the sputtering source. The goals of this project were to (1) establish alternative plasma-free, electron beam evaporation (EBE) capabilities for the deposition of thin films that are needed in mission-critical programs and; (2) demonstrate the feasibility to deposit B 4 C films at high rates by EBE in a bottom-up geometry and characterize their stoichiometry. In this feasibility study, we initially developed the capability to convert a general-use vacuum chamber into an electron beam evaporator as needed, or on demand. Then, we successfully used this setup to deposit films made of boron carbide and various other materials. By adjusting the deposition parameters and the evaporation source material, we were able to demonstrate the feasibility of reaching deposition rates as high as 8 μm/h, which is about 4 times the maximum rates obtained through sputtering methods. We predict that these values can still be further improved by implementing enhanced thermal control measures for the target source and optimizing electron beam parameters (ie. current, sweeping and frequency) since ceramic materials with similar densities to B 4 C can exhibit deposition rates of about twice this value. We anticipate that the skills and capabilities developed throughout this project will prove relevant not only to the HED and ICF campaigns but also to numerous existing and prospective applications focused on the development of ultra-hard carbide coatings. The fresh set of tools here developed will also facilitate the preparation and research on future new target materials of interest beyond B 4 C.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Innovative Subsurface Learning and Hawaiian Exploration using Advanced Tomography (ISLAND HEAT) Phase 1 (Final Report)

The Innovative Subsurface Learning and Hawaiian Exploration using Advanced Tomography (ISLAND HEAT) project aims to leverage and enhance existing Hawai'i geothermal play fairway analysis (PFA) results and validate a conceptual model-driven, optimized, least-cost exploration and geophysical suite at a proven geothermal field with known permeability, the Puna Geothermal Venture, located in the Lower East Rift Zone. The abundance of geophysical scrutinization before, during, and after the 2018 Kilauea eruption at and around the broader Puna system offers a rare opportunity to elucidate geophysical expressions within a dynamic magmatic rift setting. Development of the methodology continues with its application at a second prospective site identified by the PFA, Mauna Kea, which serves as confirmation of the integrated approach.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The 先生 (SENSEI†) Experiment: sub-GeV dark matter searches with skipper-CCD

Skipper-CCDs are pixeled Silicon-based detectors that can perform multiple non-disruptive measurements of the same charge package. Their sub-electron resolution allows the detection of eV energy transfers, such as that expected from ultra-light dark matter interacting with electrons in a Silicon target. SENSEI (Sub-Electron Noise Skipper Experimental Instrument) is the first experiment to use Skipper-CCD for this purpose and to publish world-leading results using this technology. In this talk, we present an overview of the SENSEI experiment and the current status after the successful commissioning of the second batch of science-grade sensors at SNOLAB. We will also discuss the prospects in rare-events searches with skipper-CCDs: from SENSEI’s 100 g detector to OSCURA’s 10 kg array, and more.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Mechanistic Modeling of Creep and Aging for Time Extrapolation in LPBF 316 SS - LANL

A polycrystal constitutive model was extended to quantify the effects heterogeneity in the microstructure, porosity, and internal stresses on the mechanical response (creep, tensile) of 316H steel processed by additive manufacturing. The starting point is a recently developed and fully calibrated advanced microstructuresensitive mechanistic constitutive model fit to literature data pertaining to conventionally processed steels. The model is embedded within the full field fast Fourier transform framework (LApx) and several hundred simulations were performed. Synthetic microstructures with different grain aspect ratios were generated using the Neper package to study the role of grain morphology on the mechanical responses. The effect of initial cell interior dislocation density, cell-wall density, precipitate content, porosity, and internal stresses on creep rates are quantified for different polycrystalline microstructures. The study allowed to prospectively quantify the role of distinct features of the microstructure on the mechanical response under tension and creep loading scenarios. Critically it is found that minor anisotropies in the tensile response of samples, emanating from the aspect ratio of grains correlated into significant differences in creep rate as a function of loading directions. The study also allows to identify initial microstructure porosities below which the materials response only moderately degraded by the initial microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Feasibility Studies and Downselection of New Materials and Manufacturing Technologies for Nuclear Applications

This report is intended to present the results of multi-laboratory collaborative studies on the feasibility and downselection of the structural materials that are newly considered for application to future nuclear energy technologies. The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Techniques (AMMT) program has been implemented to develop cross-cutting technologies in support of a broad range of nuclear reactor technologies and to maintain U.S. leadership in materials and manufacturing technologies for nuclear energy applications. In line with these program objectives, this collaborative studies aim to explore new materials utilizing advanced manufacturing technologies. The FY23 research scope consists of the feasibility studies on new materials and relevant advanced manufacturing technologies, collection of materials properties data and knowledge through experiments and literature survey, and development and application of decision criteria matrix for downselecting candidate materials and manufacturing technologies. The three-laboratory efforts for FY23 have focused on the three new material groups including oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) materials, refractory composites and alloys, and high entropy alloys (HEAs) investigated, respectively, by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) (work package: CT-23OR130406), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) (CT-23LA130403) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) (CT-23PN130408). The execution of this multi-lab research aimed to provide the AMMT program a merit-based feasibility study identifying an accelerated development path for these materials. A collaborative approach for achieving this goal was to develop a common materials evaluation criteria matrix and apply to all new candidate materials for the evaluation and prioritization of new materials using advanced manufacturing processes. The decision criteria matrix created is a matrix of criteria which a prospective material is scored against. The evaluation criteria are divided into four categories: Application Space, Environmental Compatibility, Physical & Mechanical Properties, and Manufacturability. Materials are given a score from 1−5 for each criterion, with the highest score (5) essentially mean that a material has the most near-term potential for application. Application of the decision criteria matrix will provide guidance to the future research on new materials.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Abstract for CRADA among NETL, Mälardalen University, University College Cork (acting through its Tyndall National Institute), and Micro Electricity Generation Association

GeoCoHorT aims to accelerate the transition to 4 th generation district heating and cooling (4GDHC) in Europe and globally, by assessing, optimizing, and demonstrating the integration of shallow geothermal heat extraction with other renewable sources and smart buildings. The target geo-source is ground water from River Shannon (Limerick, Ireland), which will provide both an efficiency and noise-reduction benefit to the micro-district and a method of combatting climate-change-warming of the Shannon Estuary. The heat from this low-temperature source will be recycled and supplied to a smart district located in Limerick, Ireland, through heat pumps powered by renewable electricity and by means of a suitable DH network design. The mandate is to find solutions that work for entire communities in a fair and sustainable manner, with the involvement of the communities themselves to highlight their needs. The project brings together four partners from Ireland, Sweden, and the U.S.A. with strong multi-disciplinary competencies. The Tyndall Institute at University of Cork (UCC) and Mälardalen University (MDU) will design and optimize the 4GDH micro-district system, and the Micro Electricity Generation Association (MEGA) will work with the community to build a sense of ownership of the Climate Challenge and ensure close community involvement. The National Energy Technology Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy (NETL) will design the prospective geo-fluid loop to optimize heat-extraction effectiveness with ecological safety and assess the environmental benefits of the proposed solutions. Industrial advisors (Eskilstuna Strängnäs Energi och Miljö (ESEM) and Mimer in Sweden, and Smart MPOWER in Ireland) will steer the technology development to meet the needs of public utilities and consumers. Current infrastructure in the smart district in Limerick (demonstration site of an EU Lighthouse project) will be exploited and modified with support of MEGA, UCC, and MPOWER to integrate micro-DH from low-temperature heat sources, such as the river heat, and to allow increasing penetration of prosumers in the grid. Additional case studies will be developed with the help of industrial advisors to extend the results to other regions (e.g., Sweden and USA) and provide valuable insights for the development of 4GDH worldwide.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Key Goals and Innovations Needed for a U.S. Compact Fusion Pilot (Final Technical Report)

Fusion energy offers the prospect of addressing the nation's energy needs and contributing to the transition to a low-carbon emission electrical generation infrastructure. Technology and research results from U.S. investments in the major fusion burning plasma experiment known as ITER, coupled with a strong foundation of research funded by the Department of Energy (DOE), position the United States to begin planning for its first fusion pilot plant. Strong interest from the private sector is an additional motivating factor, as the process of decarbonizing and modernizing the nation's electric infrastructure accelerates and companies seek to lead the way. At the request of DOE, Bringing Fusion to the U.S. Grid builds upon the work of the 2019 report Final Report of the Committee on a Strategic Plan for U.S. Burning Plasma Research to identify the key goals and innovations - independent of confinement concept - that are needed to support the development of a U.S. fusion pilot plant that can serve as a model for producing electricity at the lowest possible capital cost.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

PRIMED for the Future: Purposing Raw Intake for Machine Learning-Enabled Detection (Final Report)

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how a novel, elusive, and diffuse biological threat can engender uncertainty and misinformation, and it underscored the need for flexible analytical modalities agnostic to the identity of biological material. Yet even before the pandemic, recognition of the limitations of the current, list-based approach, which focuses on known pathogens and biotoxins, and of the importance of agent-agnostic biodetection was growing within the biosecurity community. In a 2018 report on “Biodefense in the Age of Synthetic Biology,” for example, the National Academy of Sciences stated that “an overreliance on the Select Agent List is a systematic weakness affecting many aspects of the United States’ current biodefense mitigation capability”. More recently, a group of biodefense researchers proposed the identification and adoption of “bioagent-agnostic signatures (BASs)” as a way of detecting and characterizing not only existing agents but also novel ones, an approach they believe will “enable a more flexible and resilient biodefense posture”. Indeed, the future of biodetection requires us to begin developing novel analytics that can identify anomalies and/or characteristics that indicate a potential threat, whether known or unknown, without looking for a specific signature that has been identified previously. To assess potential threats more rapidly, it is critical to develop agnostic artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) systems that can be employed for real-time assessment of the nature and source of a perturbation. Such systems should be multi scale and multi-dimensional, integrating sensor data from a range of biological, chemical, and physical application spaces. Emerging deep learning (DL) models demonstrate exceptional promise for identification of discriminatory features within multi-dimensional datasets. DL models have the capacity to recognize and encode highly complex patterns in a wide range of input data modalities, including images, text, and biological/chemical/physical spectra. As such, they can execute a wide range of assessments and determinations that have traditionally required a human operator. The promise of advances in DL is apparent in the realm of human health and medicine. DL models have been validated for evaluating a variety of clinical threats to human health in a range of contexts, including infection and cancer, and they demonstrated improved performance in predicting stroke relative to human neurologists in some categories of data. Continuously evolving advances in AI/ML are expected to support more efficient evaluation of raw sequence, spectroscopy, and spectrometry data. For instance, recent advances and deployment of large language models (LLM) such as Generative Pre training Transformer (GPT) and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) have already motivated application of these models for biological function prediction. As frameworks such as LLMs become larger and more complex in their representations, their capacity to serve as pre-trained models that can be fine-tuned for biological/biodetection purposes will similarly be amplified. While existing and emerging AI/ML have found broad applicability and use cases in the clinical sciences, development for environmental evaluation and biodetection has been limited. Functionalizing such capabilities for this purpose requires an understanding of the existing technical landscape and how the respective tools and algorithms are currently being employed. This landscape awareness then allows an assessment of the current practical capabilities of existing models and the anticipated requirements and development efforts that will be needed to adapt available algorithms for biodetection applications relevant to DHS. Leveraging expertise in biodetection, ML, and operational biodetection, the effort described in this report is comprised of a systematic landscape assessment (Subtask 2.1), comparative evaluation (Subtask 2.2), and formulation of a value proposition (Subtask 2.3) for the prospect of ML-enabled, agnostic biodetection from raw, or minimally-processed, datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗