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NASA NTRS2012

Modeling Programs Increase Aircraft Design Safety

Flutter may sound like a benign word when associated with a flag in a breeze, a butterfly, or seaweed in an ocean current. When used in the context of aerodynamics, however, it describes a highly dangerous, potentially deadly condition. Consider the case of the Lockheed L-188 Electra Turboprop, an airliner that first took to the skies in 1957. Two years later, an Electra plummeted to the ground en route from Houston to Dallas. Within another year, a second Electra crashed. In both cases, all crew and passengers died. Lockheed engineers were at a loss as to why the planes wings were tearing off in midair. For an answer, the company turned to NASA s Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) at Langley Research Center. At the time, the newly renovated wind tunnel offered engineers the capability of testing aeroelastic qualities in aircraft flying at transonic speeds near or just below the speed of sound. (Aeroelasticity is the interaction between aerodynamic forces and the structural dynamics of an aircraft or other structure.) Through round-the-clock testing in the TDT, NASA and industry researchers discovered the cause: flutter. Flutter occurs when aerodynamic forces acting on a wing cause it to vibrate. As the aircraft moves faster, certain conditions can cause that vibration to multiply and feed off itself, building to greater amplitudes until the flutter causes severe damage or even the destruction of the aircraft. Flutter can impact other structures as well. Famous film footage of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge in Washington in 1940 shows the main span of the bridge collapsing after strong winds generated powerful flutter forces. In the Electra s case, faulty engine mounts allowed a type of flutter known as whirl flutter, generated by the spinning propellers, to transfer to the wings, causing them to vibrate violently enough to tear off. Thanks to the NASA testing, Lockheed was able to correct the Electra s design flaws that led to the flutter conditions and return the aircraft to safe flight. Today, all aircraft must have a flutter boundary 15 percent beyond the aircraft s expected maximum speed to ensure that flutter conditions are not encountered in flight. NASA continues to support research in new aircraft designs to improve knowledge of aeroelasticity and flutter. Through platforms such as Dryden Flight Research Center s Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) research aircraft, the Agency researches methods for in-flight validation of predictions and for controlling and taking advantage of aeroelastic conditions to enhance aircraft performance.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2012

Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flashes (TGFs) Above Thunderstorms

Intense of gamma rays have been observed by five different space-borne detectors. The TGFs have hard spectra, with photons extending to over 50 MeV. Most of these flashes last less than a millisecond. Relativistic electrons and positrons associated with TGFs are also seen by orbiting instruments In a special mode of operation, the Fermi-GBM detectors are now detecting an average of about one TGF every two hours. The Fermi spacecraft has been performing special orientations this year which has allowed the Fermi-LAT instrument also detect TGFs. The most likely origin of these high energy photons is bremsstrahlung radiation from electrons, produced by relativistic runaway electrons in intense electric fields within or above thunderstorm regions; the altitude of origin is uncertain. These TGFs may produce an appreciable radiation dose to passengers and crew in nearby aircraft. The observational aspects of TGFs will be the main focus of this talk; theoretical aspects remain speculative.

Fishman, Gerald J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Kennedy Space Center: Creating a Spaceport Reality from the Dreams of Many

On December 17, 1903, Orville Wright piloted the first powered airplane only 20 feet above the ground near Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. The flight lasted 12 seconds and covered 120 feet. Who would have guessed that the bizarre looking contraption developed by brothers in the bicycle business would lay the ground work eventually resulting in over a million passengers moved daily in a sky filled with the contrails of jets flying at over 30,000 feet in elevation and over 500 miles per hour. Similarly, who would have guessed that the destructive nature of V-2 rockets of Germany would spark the genesis of spaceflight to explore our solar system and beyond? Yet the interest in using the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) continues to grow. Potential customers have expressed interest in KSC as a location for testing new rocket engines, servicing the world's largest airborne launching platform for drop-launch rockets, developing multi-use launch platforms that permit diverse customers to use the same launch platform, developing new spacecraft, and implementing advanced modifications for lifting 150 metric ton payloads to low earth orbit. The multitude of customers has grown and with this growth comes a need to provide a command, control, communication, and range infrastructure that maximizes flexibility and reconfigurability to address a much more frequent launch rate of diverse vehicles and spacecraft. The Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program Office at KSC is embarking upon these developments to realize the dream of a robust spaceport. Many unique technical trade studies have been completed or are underway to successfully transition KSC into a multi-user customer focused spaceport. Like the evolution of the airplane, GSDO is working to transform KSC infrastructures that will turn once unthinkable space opportunities into a reality for today.

Gray, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Calibration of Airframe and Occupant Models for Two Full-Scale Rotorcraft Crash Tests

Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system integrated finite element model of the test article. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the second full-scale crash test. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods was used to identify modeling deficiencies, evaluate parameter importance, and propose required model changes. It is shown that the multi-dimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were compared to test results and the original model results. There was a noticeable improvement in the pilot and co-pilot region, a slight improvement in the occupant model response, and an over-stiffening effect in the passenger region. This approach should be adopted early on, in combination with the building-block approaches that are customarily used, for model development and test planning guidance. Complete crash simulations with validated finite element models can be used to satisfy crash certification requirements, thereby reducing overall development costs.

Annett, Martin S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Influence of Alternative Engine Concepts on LCTR2 Sizing and Mission Profile

The Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR) was developed as part of the NASA Heavy Lift Rotorcraft Systems Investigation in order to establish a consistent basis for evaluating the benefits of advanced technology for large tiltrotors. The concept has since evolved into the second-generation LCTR2, designed to carry 90 passengers for 1,000 nm at 300 knots, with vertical takeoff and landing. This paper examines the impact of advanced propulsion system concepts on LCTR2 sizing. Two concepts were studied: an advanced, single-speed engine with a conventional power turbine layout (Advanced Conventional Engine, or ACE), and a variable-speed power turbine engine (VSPT). The ACE is the lighter engine, but requires a multi-speed (shifting) gearbox, whereas the VSPT uses a lighter, fixed-ratio gearbox. The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) design code was used to study the trades between rotor and engine efficiency and weight. Rotor performance was determined by Comprehensive Analytical Model of Rotorcraft Aerodynamics and Dynamics (CAMRAD II), and engine performance was estimated with the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). Design trades for the ACE vs. VSPT are presented in terms of vehicle weight empty for variations in mission altitude and range; the effect of different One Engine Inoperative (OEI) criteria are also examined. Because of its strong effect on gearbox weight and on both rotor and engine efficiency, rotor speed was chosen as the reference design variable for comparing design trades. The two propulsion concepts had nearly identical vehicle weights and mission fuel consumption, and their relative advantages varied little with cruise altitude, mission range, or OEI criteria; high cruise altitude and low cruise tip speed were beneficial for both concepts.

Acree, C. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Simulation to Support Local Search in Trajectory Optimization Planning

NASA and the international community are investing in the development of a commercial transportation infrastructure that includes the increased use of rotorcraft, specifically helicopters and civil tilt rotors. However, there is significant concern over the impact of noise on the communities surrounding the transportation facilities. One way to address the rotorcraft noise problem is by exploiting powerful search techniques coming from artificial intelligence coupled with simulation and field tests to design low-noise flight profiles which can be tested in simulation or through field tests. This paper investigates the use of simulation based on predictive physical models to facilitate the search for low-noise trajectories using a class of automated search algorithms called local search. A novel feature of this approach is the ability to incorporate constraints directly into the problem formulation that addresses passenger safety and comfort.

Morris, Robert A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Design and Performance of Lift-Offset Rotorcraft for Short-Haul Missions

The design and performance of compound helicopters utilizing lift-offset rotors are examined, in the context of short-haul, medium-size civil and military missions. The analysis tools used are the comprehensive analysis CAMRAD II and the sizing code NDARC. Following correlation of the comprehensive analysis with existing lift-offset aircraft flight test data, the rotor performance model for the sizing code was developed, and an initial estimate was made of the rotor size and key hover and cruise flight conditions. The rotor planform and twist were optimized for those conditions, and the sizing code rotor performance model updated. Two models for estimating the blade and hub weight of lift-offset rotors are discussed. The civil and military missions are described, along with the aircraft design assumptions. The aircraft are sized for 30 passengers or 6600 lb payload, with a range of 300 nm. Civil and military aircraft designs are described for each of the rotor weight models. Disk loading and blade loading were varied to optimize the designs, based on gross weight and fuel burn. The influence of technology is shown, in terms of rotor hub drag and rotor weight.

Johnson, Wayne↗

NASA NTRS2012

Solar Eruptive Events

It s long been known that the Sun plays host to the most energetic explosions in the solar system. But key insights into the forms that energy takes have only recently become available. Solar flares have been phenomena of both academic and practical interest since their discovery in 1859. From the academic point of view, they are the nearest events for studying the explosive release of energy in astrophysical magnetized plasmas. From the practical point of view, they disrupt communication channels on Earth, from telegraph communications in 1859 to radio and television signals today. Flares also wreak havoc on the electrical power grid, satellite operations, and GPS signals, and energetic charged particles and radiation are dangerous to passengers on high-altitude polar flights and to astronauts. Flares are not the only explosive phenomena on the Sun. More difficult to observe but equally energetic are the large coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the ejection of up to ten billion tons of magnetized plasma into the solar wind at speeds that can exceed 1000 km/s. CMEs are primarily observed from the side, with coronagraphs that block out the bright disk of the Sun and lower solar atmosphere so that light scattered from the ejected mass can be seen. Major geomagnetic storms are now known to arise from the interaction of CMEs with Earth's magnetosphere. Solar flares are observed without CMEs, and CMEs are observed without flares. The two phenomena often occur together, however, and almost always do in the case of large flares and fast CMEs. The term solar eruptive event refers to the combination of a flare and a CME. Solar eruptive events generate a lot of heat: They can heat plasma to temperatures as high at 50 million Kelvin, producing radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum. But that s not all. A fascinating aspect of solar eruptive events is the acceleration of electrons and ions to suprathermal often relativistic energies. The accelerated particles are primarily observed through their emissions in the higher energy x-ray, gamma-ray, and rf regimes. The radio and x-ray emissions are both from mildly relativistic electrons with energies of tens of keV and above. Gamma-ray line emission comes indirectly from accelerated protons and heavier ions with MeV and higher energies. The difficulty in collecting spatially and spectrally resolved x-ray and gamma-ray data has long been a barrier to learning about the accelerated particles. Considerable progress has been made in the last decade in understanding the relationship between the flare, the CME, energy release, and particle acceleration. But many new questions have also arisen. In this article, I describe those new insights and our evolving understanding of solar eruptive events.

Holman, Gordon D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed

Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.

Diallo, Ousmane H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Assessment of Variable Speed Power Turbine Technology on Civil Tiltrotor Size and Performance

A Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR) conceptual design was developed as part of the NASA Heavy Lift Rotorcraft Systems Investigation in order to establish a consistent basis for evaluating the benefits of advanced technology for large tiltrotors. The concept has since evolved into the second-generation LCTR2, designed to carry 90 passengers for 1,000 nm at 300 knots, with vertical takeoff and landing capability. This paper performs a preliminary assessment of variable-speed power turbine technology on LCTR2 sizing, while maintaining the same, advanced technology engine core. Six concepts were studied; an advanced, single-speed engine with a conventional power turbine layout (Advanced Conventional Engine, or ACE) using a multi-speed (shifting) gearbox. There were five variable-speed power turbine (VSPT) engine concepts, comprising a matrix of either three or four turbine stages, and fixed or variable guide vanes; plus a minimum weight, twostage, fixed-geometry VSPT. The ACE is the lightest engine, but requires a multi-speed (shifting) gearbox to maximize its fuel efficiency, whereas the VSPT concepts use a lighter, fixed-ratio gearbox. The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) design code was used to study the trades between rotor and engine efficiency and weight. Rotor performance was determined by Comprehensive Analytical Model of Rotorcraft Aerodynamics and Dynamics (CAMRAD II), and engine performance was estimated with the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). Design trades for the ACE vs. VSPT are presented in terms of vehicle gross and empty weight, propulsion system weight and mission fuel burn for the civil mission. Because of its strong effect on gearbox weight and on both rotor and engine efficiency, rotor speed was chosen as the reference design variable for comparing design trades. Major study assumptions are presented and discussed. Impressive engine power-to-weight and fuel efficiency reduced vehicle sensitivity to propulsion system choice. The 10% weight penalty for multi-speed gearbox was more significant than most engine technology weight penalties to the vehicle design because drive system weight is more than two times engine weight. Based on study assumptions, fixed-geometry VSPT concept options performed better than their variable-geometry counterparts. Optimum design gross weights varied 1% or less and empty weights less than 2% among the concepts studied, while optimum fuel burns varied up to 5%. The outcome for some optimum configurations was so unexpected as to recommend a deeper look at the underlying technology assumptions.

Snyder, Christopher A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Benefits Assessment of Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR)

While en route, aircrews submit trajectory change requests to air traffic control (ATC) to better meet their objectives including reduced delays, reduced fuel burn, and passenger comfort. Aircrew requests are currently made with limited to no information on surrounding traffic. Consequently, these requests are uninformed about a key ATC objective, ensuring traffic separation, and therefore less likely to be accepted than requests informed by surrounding traffic and that avoids creating conflicts. This paper studies the benefits of providing aircrews with on-board decision support to generate optimized trajectory requests that are probed and cleared of known separation violations prior to issuing the request to ATC. These informed requests are referred to as traffic aware strategic aircrew requests (TASAR) and leverage traffic surveillance information available through Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) In capability. Preliminary fast-time simulation results show increased benefits with longer stage lengths since beneficial trajectory changes can be applied over a longer distance. Also, larger benefits were experienced between large hub airports as compared to other airport sizes. On average, an aircraft equipped with TASAR reduced its travel time by about one to four minutes per operation and fuel burn by about 50 to 550 lbs per operation depending on the objective of the aircrew (time, fuel, or weighted combination of time and fuel), class of airspace user, and aircraft type. These preliminary results are based on analysis of approximately one week of traffic in July 2012 and additional analysis is planned on a larger data set to confirm these initial findings.

Henderson, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS2012

System Safety and the Unintended Consequence

The analysis and identification of risks often result in design changes or modification of operational steps. This paper identifies the potential of unintended consequences as an over-looked result of these changes. Examples of societal changes such as prohibition, regulatory changes including mandating lifeboats on passenger ships, and engineering proposals or design changes to automobiles and spaceflight hardware are used to demonstrate that the System Safety Engineer must be cognizant of the potential for unintended consequences as a result of an analysis. Conclusions of the report indicate the need for additional foresight and consideration of the potential effects of analysis-driven design, processing changes, and/or operational modifications.

Watson, Clifford↗

NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Control and Non-Payload Communications Links for Integrated Unmanned Aircraft Operations

Technology for unmanned aircraft has advanced so rapidly in recent years that many new applications to public and commercial use are being proposed and implemented. In many countries, emphasis is now being placed on developing the means to allow unmanned aircraft to operate within non-segregated airspace along with commercial, cargo and other piloted and passenger-carrying aircraft.In the U.S., Congress has mandated that the Federal Aviation Administration reduce and remove restrictions on unmanned aircraft operations in a relatively short time frame. To accomplish this, a number of technical and regulatory hurdles must be overcome. A key hurdle involve the communications link connecting the remote pilot located at a ground control station with the aircraft in the airspace, referred to as the Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) link. This link represents a safety critical communications link, and thus requires dedicated and protected aviation spectrum as well as national and international standards defining the operational requirements the CNPC system. The CNPC link must provide line-of-site (LOS) communications, primarily through a ground-based communication system, and beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) communication achieved using satellite communications. In the U.S., the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is charged with providing the technical body of evidence to support spectrum allocation requirements and national and international standards development for the CNPC link. This paper provides a description of the CNPC system, an overview of NASA's CNPC project, and current results in technology assessment, air-ground propagation characterization, and supporting system studies and analyses will be presented.

Kerczewski, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Simulated Rotor Wake Interactions Resulting from Civil Tiltrotor Aircraft Operations Near Vertiport Terminals

A mid-fidelity computational fluid dynamics tool called RotCFD - specifically developed to aid in rotorcraft conceptual design efforts - has been applied to the study of rotor wake interactions of civil tiltrotor aircraft in the immediate vicinity of vertiport/airport ground infrastructure. This issue has grown in importance as previous NASA studies have suggested that civil tiltrotor aircraft can potentially have a significant impact on commercial transport aviation. Current NASA reference designs for such civil tiltrotor aircraft are focused on a size category of 90-120 passengers. Notional concepts of operations include simultaneous non-interfering flight into and out of congested airports having vertiports, that is, prepared VTOL takeoff and landing zones, or underutilized short runways for STOL operation. Such large gross-weight vehicles will be generating very high induced velocities. Inevitably, the interaction of the rotor wake with ground infrastructure such as terminals/jetways must be considered both from an operational as well as design perspective.

Young, Larry A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Application of Climate Impact Metrics to Rotorcraft Design

Multiple metrics are applied to the design of large civil rotorcraft, integrating minimum cost and minimum environmental impact. The design mission is passenger transport with similar range and capacity to a regional jet. Separate aircraft designs are generated for minimum empty weight, fuel burn, and environmental impact. A metric specifically developed for the design of aircraft is employed to evaluate emissions. The designs are generated using the NDARC rotorcraft sizing code, and rotor analysis is performed with the CAMRAD II aeromechanics code. Design and mission parameters such as wing loading, disk loading, and cruise altitude are varied to minimize both cost and environmental impact metrics. This paper presents the results of these parametric sweeps as well as the final aircraft designs.

Russell, Carl↗

NASA NTRS2012

Development and Calibration of a System-Integrated Rotorcraft Finite Element Model for Impact Scenarios

Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber (DEA) under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. The presence of this energy absorbing device reduced the peak impact acceleration levels by a factor of three. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system-integrated finite element model of the test article developed in parallel with the test program. In preparation for the full-scale crash test, a series of sub-scale and MD-500 mass simulator tests were conducted to evaluate the impact performances of various components and subsystems, including new crush tubes and the DEA blocks. Parameters defined for the system-integrated finite element model were determined from these tests. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the full-scale crash test without the DEA. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods identified modeling deficiencies, evaluated parameter importance, and proposed required model changes. The multidimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were compared to test results and the original model results. There was a noticeable improvement in the pilot and copilot region, a slight improvement in the occupant model response, and an over-stiffening effect in the passenger region. One lesson learned was that this approach should be adopted early on, in combination with the building-block approaches that are customarily used, for model development and pretest predictions. Complete crash simulations with validated finite element models can be used to satisfy crash certification requirements, potentially reducing overall development costs.

Annett, Martin S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Anchorage Arrival Scheduling Under Off-Nominal Weather Conditions

Weather can cause flight diversions, passenger delays, additional fuel consumption and schedule disruptions at any high volume airport. The impacts are particularly acute at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Anchorage, Alaska due to its importance as a major international portal. To minimize the impacts due to weather, a multi-stage scheduling process is employed that is iteratively executed, as updated aircraft demand and/or airport capacity data become available. The strategic scheduling algorithm assigns speed adjustments for flights that originate outside of Anchorage Center to achieve the proper demand and capacity balance. Similarly, an internal departure-scheduling algorithm assigns ground holds for pre-departure flights that originate from within Anchorage Center. Tactical flight controls in the form of airborne holding are employed to reactively account for system uncertainties. Real-world scenarios that were derived from the January 16, 2012 Anchorage visibility observations and the January 12, 2012 Anchorage arrival schedule were used to test the initial implementation of the scheduling algorithm in fast-time simulation experiments. Although over 90% of the flights in the scenarios arrived at Anchorage without requiring any delay, pre-departure scheduling was the dominant form of control for Anchorage arrivals. Additionally, tactical scheduling was used extensively in conjunction with the pre-departure scheduling to reactively compensate for uncertainties in the arrival demand. For long-haul flights, the strategic scheduling algorithm performed best when the scheduling horizon was greater than 1,000 nmi. With these long scheduling horizons, it was possible to absorb between ten and 12 minutes of delay through speed control alone. Unfortunately, the use of tactical scheduling, which resulted in airborne holding, was found to increase as the strategic scheduling horizon increased because of the additional uncertainty in the arrival times of the aircraft. Findings from these initial experiments indicate that it is possible to schedule arrivals into Anchorage with minimal delays under low-visibility conditions with less disruption to high-cost, international flights.

Grabbe, Shon↗