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WE-AB-201-03: TPS Commissioning and QA: Incorporating the Entire Planning Process

Treatment planning systems (TPS) are a cornerstone of modern radiation therapy. Errors in their commissioning or use can have a devastating impact on many patients. To support safe and high quality care, medical physicists must conduct efficient and proper commissioning, good clinical integration, and ongoing quality assurance (QA) of the TPS. AAPM Task Group 53 and related publications have served as seminal benchmarks for TPS commissioning and QA over the past two decades. Over the same time, continuing innovations have made the TPS even more complex and more central to the clinical process. Medical goals are now expressed in terms of the dose and margins around organs and tissues that are delineated from multiple imaging modalities (CT, MR and PET); and even temporally resolved (i.e., 4D) imaging. This information is passed on to optimization algorithms to establish accelerator movements that are programmed directly for IMRT, VMAT and stereotactic treatments. These advances have made commissioning and QA of the TPS much more challenging. This education session reviews up-to-date experience and guidance on this subject; including the recently published AAPM Medical Physics Practice Guideline (MPPG) #5 “Commissioning and QA of Treatment Planning Dose Calculations: Megavoltage Photon and Electron Beams”. Treatment Planning System Commissioning and QA: Challenges and Opportunities (Greg Salomons) This session will provide some key background and review publications describing prominent incidents relating to TPS commissioning and QA. Traditional approaches have been hardware and feature oriented. They aim to establish a functional configuration and establish specifications for regular testing of features (like dose calculation) to assure stable operation and detect failures. With the advent of more complex systems, more patient-specific testing has also been adopted. A number of actual TPS defects will be presented along with heuristics for identifying similar defects in the future. Finally, the Gamma test has become a popular metric for reporting TPS Commissioning and QA results. It simplifies complex testing into a numerical index, but noisy data and casual application can make it misleading. A brief review of the issues around the use of the Gamma test will be presented. TPS commissioning and QA: A process orientation and application of control charts (Michael Sharpe) A framework for commissioning a treatment planning system will be presented, focusing on preparations, practical aspects of configuration, priorities, specifications, and establishing performance. The complexity of the modern TPS make modular testing of features inadequate, and modern QA tools can provide “too much information” about the performance of techniques like IMRT and VMAT. We have adopted a process orientation and quality tools, like control charts, for ongoing TPS QA and assessment of patient-specific tests. The trending nature of these tools reveals the overall performance of the TPS system, and quantifies the variations that arise from individual plans, discrete calculations, and experimentation based on discrete measurements. Examples demonstrating application of these tools to TPS QA will be presented. TPS commissioning and QA: Incorporating the entire planning process (Sasa Mutic) The TPS and its features do not perform in isolation. Instead, the features and modules are key components in a complex process that begins with CT Simulation and extends to treatment delivery, along with image guidance and verification. Most importantly, the TPS is used by people working in a multi-disciplinary environment. It is very difficult to predict the outcomes of human interactions with software. Therefore, an interdisciplinary approach to training, commissioning and QA will be presented, along with an approach to the physics chart check and end-to-end testing as a tool for TPS QA. The role of standardization and automation in QA will also be discussed. The recommendations of MPPG #5 and practical implementation strategies (Jennifer Smilowitz) The recently published recommendations from Task Group No. 244, Medical Physics Practice Guideline on Commissioning and QA of Treatment Planning Dose Calculations: Megavoltage Photon and Electron Beams will be presented. The recommendations focus on the validation of commissioning data and dose calculations. Tolerance values for non-IMRT beam configurations are summarized based on established criteria and data collected by the IROC. More stringent evaluation criteria for IMRT dose calculations are suggested to test the limitations of the TPS dose algorithms for advanced delivery conditions. The MPPG encourages users to create a suite of validation tests for dose calculation for various conditions for static photon beams, heterogeneities, IMRT/VMAT and electron beams. This test suite is intended to be used for subsequent testing, including TPS software upgrades. In the past, the recommendations of some reports have not been widely implemented due to practical limitations. Implementation strategies, tools and processes developed by multiple centers for efficient and “do-able” MPPG #5 testing will be presented, as well as a discussion on the overall validation experience. Learning Objectives: Identify some of the key documents relevant for TPS commissioning and QA Understand strategies for testing TPS software Gain a practical knowledge of the Gamma test criteria Increase familiarity with the process of commissioning a TPS Learn about the use of Control Charts for TPS QA Review the role of the TPS in the overall planning process Increase awareness of the link between TPS QA and chart checking Gain an increased appreciation for the importance of interdisciplinary communication Understand the new recommendations from MPPG #5 on TPS Dose Algorithm Commissioning and QC/QA Learn practical implementation processes and tools for MPPG #5 validation recommendations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

WE-AB-201-04: The Recommendations of MPPG #5 and Practical Implementation Strategies

Treatment planning systems (TPS) are a cornerstone of modern radiation therapy. Errors in their commissioning or use can have a devastating impact on many patients. To support safe and high quality care, medical physicists must conduct efficient and proper commissioning, good clinical integration, and ongoing quality assurance (QA) of the TPS. AAPM Task Group 53 and related publications have served as seminal benchmarks for TPS commissioning and QA over the past two decades. Over the same time, continuing innovations have made the TPS even more complex and more central to the clinical process. Medical goals are now expressed in terms of the dose and margins around organs and tissues that are delineated from multiple imaging modalities (CT, MR and PET); and even temporally resolved (i.e., 4D) imaging. This information is passed on to optimization algorithms to establish accelerator movements that are programmed directly for IMRT, VMAT and stereotactic treatments. These advances have made commissioning and QA of the TPS much more challenging. This education session reviews up-to-date experience and guidance on this subject; including the recently published AAPM Medical Physics Practice Guideline (MPPG) #5 “Commissioning and QA of Treatment Planning Dose Calculations: Megavoltage Photon and Electron Beams”. Treatment Planning System Commissioning and QA: Challenges and Opportunities (Greg Salomons) This session will provide some key background and review publications describing prominent incidents relating to TPS commissioning and QA. Traditional approaches have been hardware and feature oriented. They aim to establish a functional configuration and establish specifications for regular testing of features (like dose calculation) to assure stable operation and detect failures. With the advent of more complex systems, more patient-specific testing has also been adopted. A number of actual TPS defects will be presented along with heuristics for identifying similar defects in the future. Finally, the Gamma test has become a popular metric for reporting TPS Commissioning and QA results. It simplifies complex testing into a numerical index, but noisy data and casual application can make it misleading. A brief review of the issues around the use of the Gamma test will be presented. TPS commissioning and QA: A process orientation and application of control charts (Michael Sharpe) A framework for commissioning a treatment planning system will be presented, focusing on preparations, practical aspects of configuration, priorities, specifications, and establishing performance. The complexity of the modern TPS make modular testing of features inadequate, and modern QA tools can provide “too much information” about the performance of techniques like IMRT and VMAT. We have adopted a process orientation and quality tools, like control charts, for ongoing TPS QA and assessment of patient-specific tests. The trending nature of these tools reveals the overall performance of the TPS system, and quantifies the variations that arise from individual plans, discrete calculations, and experimentation based on discrete measurements. Examples demonstrating application of these tools to TPS QA will be presented. TPS commissioning and QA: Incorporating the entire planning process (Sasa Mutic) The TPS and its features do not perform in isolation. Instead, the features and modules are key components in a complex process that begins with CT Simulation and extends to treatment delivery, along with image guidance and verification. Most importantly, the TPS is used by people working in a multi-disciplinary environment. It is very difficult to predict the outcomes of human interactions with software. Therefore, an interdisciplinary approach to training, commissioning and QA will be presented, along with an approach to the physics chart check and end-to-end testing as a tool for TPS QA. The role of standardization and automation in QA will also be discussed. The recommendations of MPPG #5 and practical implementation strategies (Jennifer Smilowitz) The recently published recommendations from Task Group No. 244, Medical Physics Practice Guideline on Commissioning and QA of Treatment Planning Dose Calculations: Megavoltage Photon and Electron Beams will be presented. The recommendations focus on the validation of commissioning data and dose calculations. Tolerance values for non-IMRT beam configurations are summarized based on established criteria and data collected by the IROC. More stringent evaluation criteria for IMRT dose calculations are suggested to test the limitations of the TPS dose algorithms for advanced delivery conditions. The MPPG encourages users to create a suite of validation tests for dose calculation for various conditions for static photon beams, heterogeneities, IMRT/VMAT and electron beams. This test suite is intended to be used for subsequent testing, including TPS software upgrades. In the past, the recommendations of some reports have not been widely implemented due to practical limitations. Implementation strategies, tools and processes developed by multiple centers for efficient and “do-able” MPPG #5 testing will be presented, as well as a discussion on the overall validation experience. Learning Objectives: Identify some of the key documents relevant for TPS commissioning and QA Understand strategies for testing TPS software Gain a practical knowledge of the Gamma test criteria Increase familiarity with the process of commissioning a TPS Learn about the use of Control Charts for TPS QA Review the role of the TPS in the overall planning process Increase awareness of the link between TPS QA and chart checking Gain an increased appreciation for the importance of interdisciplinary communication Understand the new recommendations from MPPG #5 on TPS Dose Algorithm Commissioning and QC/QA Learn practical implementation processes and tools for MPPG #5 validation recommendations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Microbiome-Mitochondrion Connection: Common Ancestries, Common Mechanisms, Common Goals

Lynn Margulis in the 1960s elegantly proposed a shared phylogenetic history between bacteria and mitochondria; this relationship has since become a cornerstone of modern cellular biology. Yet, an interesting facet of the interaction between the microbiome and mitochondria has been mostly ignored, that of the systems biology relationship that underpins host health and longevity. Lynn Margulis in the 1960s elegantly proposed a shared phylogenetic history between bacteria and mitochondria; this relationship has since become a cornerstone of modern cellular biology. Yet, an interesting facet of the interaction between the microbiome and mitochondria has been mostly ignored, that of the systems biology relationship that underpins host health and longevity. The mitochondria are descendants of primordial aerobic pleomorphic bacteria (likely genus Rickettsia) that entered (literally and functionally) into a mutualistic partnership with ancient anaerobic microbes (likely Archaea). A stable symbiosis was established, given the metabolic versatility of the early mitochondria, which were capable of providing energy with or without oxygen, whereas nutrient gathering was the assumed responsibility of the host. While microbial relationships with single-cell protists must have occurred in the past, as they occur today, the evolution of multicellular organisms generated a new framework for symbiosis with the microbial world, taking the ancient partnership to an entirely new level. Cell-cell communication between microbes and single-cell protists was augmented through multicellularity to allow distant communication between the host cells and the microbiome, resulting in the development of complex metabolic relationships and an immune system to manage these interactions. Thus, the host is now the body and its resident mitochondria, and the microbiome is an essential supplier of metabolites that act at the level of mitochondria in skeletal muscle to stabilize host metabolism. We humans are caretakers of a profoundly vast and diverse microbiota, the majority of which resides in the gut. Indeed, the microbial genetic diversity of our microbiota outstrips our own by several orders of magnitude, and the cellular abundance is roughly equivalent to our somatic selves. Modern clinical science has elegantly highlighted the importance of the microbiome for metabolic health and well-being. This perspective underscores one fundamental facet of this symbiosis, the ancestral mitochondrion-microbiome axis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Clumped isotope constraints on changes in latest Pleistocene hydroclimate in the northwestern Great Basin: Lake Surprise, California

Abstract During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the Great Basin in the southwestern United States was covered by numerous extensive closed-basin lakes, in stark contrast with the predominately arid climate observed today. This transition from lakes in the Late Pleistocene to modern aridity implies large changes in the regional water balance. Whether these changes were driven by increased precipitation rates due to changes in atmospheric dynamics, decreased evaporation rates resulting from temperature depression and summer insolation changes, or some combination of the two remains uncertain. The factors contributing to these large-scale changes in hydroclimate are critical to resolve, given that this region is poised to undergo future anthropogenic-forced climate changes with large uncertainties in model simulations for the 21st century. Furthermore, there are ambiguous constraints on the magnitude and even the sign of changes in key hydroclimate variables between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present day in both proxy reconstructions and climate model analyses of the region. Here we report thermodynamically derived estimates of changes in temperature, precipitation, and evaporation rates, as well as the isotopic composition of lake water, using clumped isotope data from an ancient lake in the northwestern Great Basin, Lake Surprise (California). Compared to modern climate, mean annual air temperature at Lake Surprise was 4.7 °C lower during the Last Glacial Maximum, with decreased evaporation rates and similar precipitation rates to modern. During the mid-deglacial period, the growth of Lake Surprise implied that the lake hydrologic budget briefly departed from steady state. Our reconstructions indicate that this growth took place rapidly, while the subsequent lake regression took place over several thousand years. Using models for precipitation and evaporation constrained from clumped isotope results, we determine that the disappearance of Lake Surprise coincided with a moderate increase in lake temperature, along with increasing evaporation rates outpacing increasing precipitation rates. Concomitant analysis of proxy data and climate model simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum are used to provide a robust means to understand past climate change, and by extension, predict how current hydroclimates may respond to expected future climate forcings. We suggest that an expansion of this analysis to more basins across a larger spatial scale could provide valuable insight into proposed climate forcings, and aid in climate model process depiction. Ultimately, our analysis highlights the importance of temperature-driven evaporation as a mechanism for lake growth and retreat in this region.

Geology↗

Editorial: Mathematical Methods and Modeling in Machine Fault Diagnosis

Modern mathematics has commonly been utilized as an effective tool to model mechanical equipment so that their dynamic characteristics can be studied analytically. This will help identify potential failures of mechanical equipment by observing change in the equipment’s dynamic parameters. On the other hand, dynamic signals are also important and provide reliable information about the equipment’s working status. Modern mathematics has also provided us with a systematic way to design and implement various signal processing methods, which are used to analyze these dynamic signals, and to enhance intrinsic signal components that are directly related to machine failures. This special issue is aimed at stimulating not only new insights on mathematical methods for modeling but also recently developed signal processing methods, such as sparse decomposition with potential applications in machine fault diagnosis. Finally, the papers included in this special issue provide a glimpse into some of the research and applications in the field of machine fault diagnosis through applications of the modern mathematical methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

PALS Python v0.1.0

This is a Python implementation for the Particle Accelerator Lattice Standard (PALS). To define the PALS schema, Pydantic is used to map to Python objects, perform automatic validation, and serialize/deserialize data classes to/from many modern file formats. Various modern file formats (e.g., YAML, JSON, TOML, XML, etc.) are supported, which makes the implementation of the schema-following files in any modern programming language easy (e.g., Python, Julia, C++, LUA, Javascript, etc.). Here, we do Python.

Huebl, Axel [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗

The influence of variability in meridional over turning on global ocean circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important global scale circulation and changes in AMOC can induce significant regional and global climate impacts. In this work, we study the stability of AMOC and its influence on global ocean circulation and the surface climate though analyzing a set of sensitivity experiments using the Community Climate System Model version 1 (CESM1). Results show that a collapsed AMOC can induce changes in global ocean circulation, such as reduced (or reversed) Bering Strait transport, weakened Indonesia throughflow and Agulhas current, but strengthened Drake Passage transport. It also changes the global wind pattern and surface temperature, such as a seesaw-like surface temperature change between Northern and Southern Hemispheres, a weakening of Indian-Australia summer monsoon, a southward shift of the Southern ocean westerlies, etc. We also found that AMOC and the Pacific deep meridional overturning circulation (or PMOC) do not form a natural seesaw under modern day climate and geography. A collapsed AMOC (active PMOC) is not stable under modern conditions if there is no additional freshwater (salt) input in the subpolar North Atlantic (Pacific), suggesting that the modern mean state of AMOC (PMOC) does not depend on local haline forcing although its variability and changes do.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of chemical warfare agents by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry: methods for their direct detection and derivatization approaches for the analysis of their degradation products

Abstract Chemical warfare agents (CWAs) are unarguably one of the most feared toxic substances produced by mankind. Their inception in conventional warfare can be traced as far back as the Middle Ages but their full breakthrough as central players in bellic conflicts was not realized until World War I. Since then, more modern CWAs along with efficient methods for their manufacture have emerged and violently shaped the way modern warfare and diplomatic relations are conducted. Owing to their mass destruction ability, counter methods to mitigate their impact appeared almost immediately on par with their development. These efforts have focused on their efficient destruction, development of medical countermeasures and their detection by modern analytical chemistry methods. The following review seeks to provide the reader with a broad introduction on their direct detection by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and the various sample derivatization methods available for the analysis of their degradation products. The review concentrates on three of the main CWA classes and includes the nerve agents, the blistering agents and lastly, the incapacitating agents. Each section begins with a brief introduction of the CWA along with discussions of reports dealing with their detection in the intact form by GC-MS. Furthermore, as products arising from their degradation carry as much importance as the agents themselves in the field of forensic analysis, the available derivatization methods of these species are presented for each CWA highlighting some examples from our lab in the Forensic Science Center at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Valdez, Carlos A.↗

Fast Uncovering of Graph Communities on a Chip: Toward Scalable Community Detection on Multicore and Manycore Platforms

Graph representations are pervasive in scientific and social computing. They serve as vital tools to model the interplay among different interacting entities. In this paper, we visit the problem of community detection, which is one of the most widely used graph operations toward scientific discovery. Community detection refers to the process of identifying tightly-knit subgroups of vertices in a large graph. These sub-groups (or communities) represent vertices that are tied together through common structure or function. Identification of communities could help in understanding the modular organization of complex networks. However, owing to large data sizes and high computational costs, performing community detection at scale has become increasingly challenging. Here, we present a detailed review and analysis of some of the leading computational methods and implementations developed for executing community detection on modern day multicore and manycore architectures. Our goals are to: a) define the problem of community detection and highlight its scientific significance; b) relate to challenges in parallelizing the operation on modern day architectures; c) provide a detailed report and taxonomical classification of the approaches that have been designed for various architectures; and d) finally, provide insights into the strengths and suitability of different architectures for community detection, and a preview into the future trends of the area. It is our hope that this detailed treatment of community detection on parallel architectures can serve as an exemplar study for extending the application of modern day multicore and manycore architectures to other complex graph applications.

community detection, multithreaded platforms↗

RISMC Advanced Safety Analysis Project Plan – FY 2015 - FY 2019

In this report, a project plan is developed, focused on industry applications, using Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) tools and methods applied to realistic, relevant, and current interest issues to the operating nuclear fleet. RISMC focuses on modernization of nuclear power safety analysis (tools, methods and data); implementing state-of-the-art modeling techniques (which include, for example, enabling incorporation of more detailed physics as they become available); taking advantage of modern computing hardware; and combining probabilistic and mechanistic analyses to enable a risk informed safety analysis process. The modernized tools will maintain the current high level of safety in our nuclear power plant fleet, while providing an improved understanding of safety margins and the critical parameters that affect them. Thus, the set of tools will provide information to inform decisions on plant modifications, refurbishments, and surveillance programs, while improving economics. This set of tools will also benefit the design of new reactors, enhancing safety per unit cost of a nuclear plant. The proposed plan will focus on application of the RISMC toolkit, in particular, solving realistic problems of important current issues to the nuclear industry, in collaboration with plant owners and operators to demonstrate the usefulness of these tools in decision making.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory Ten-Year Site Plan FY 2016

The Los Alamos National Laboratory will continue to face a significant challenge over the next 25 years in balancing near-term needs while transforming the infrastructure to ensure long-term viability. The 2014 Los Alamos National Laboratory Strategic Plan emphasized that infrastructure must be modernized and maintained to fulfill diverse, complex, and evolving missions in a period of fl at or decreasing budgets. The large number of existing facilities will continue to age while safety, security, sustainability and compliance requirements will likely increase. The Laboratory must also continue to act as an environmental steward, reduce environmental risk, and improve sustainability. This plan identifies strategies that will enable the Laboratory to provide a flexible, responsive infrastructure within available resources. At the end of the 25 year period, the Laboratory will have achieved the following: New facilities construction and enduring facilities reinvestment to support critical capabilities; Improved energy efficiency and long-term sustainability practices; Modernized utility infrastructure to support future programmatic needs; Legacy cleanup and long-term environmental stewardship goals; Footprint reduction and nuclear infrastructure consolidation. Even in the face of new and significant pressures, the Laboratory will continue to take substantial steps to streamline operations, modernize the infrastructure, and fulfill its vision of being the premier national security science laboratory. The fiscal year (FY) 2016 Ten-Year Site Plan (TYSP) is consistent with previous TYSPs and incorporates updated information in accordance with National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) guidance. The TYSP is a vital planning component to meet the NNSA commitment to ensure the U.S. has a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear deterrent. The Laboratory also uses the TYSP as an integrated planning tool to guide development of an efficient and responsive infrastructure that effectively supports the Laboratory’s missions and workforce. Emphasizing the Laboratory’s core capabilities, this TYSP reflects the Laboratory’s role as a prominent contributor to NNSA missions through its programs and campaigns.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project: Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2014

Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for effective application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity transport theory based computational software and models to replace the legacy methods, with appropriate verification and validation (V&V) protocols according to applicable national standards. The project has now completed its fifth, and last, full year of development activity, and has entered an accelerated deployment phase that is expected to run through 2015.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Approximating Dose and Risk for Contaminants in Groundwater from the Underground Nuclear Test Areas of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS)

As part of the Environmental Management Program at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), the Underground Test Area (UGTA) Activity investigates the potential impacts of radionuclides that were introduced into groundwater from the underground nuclear tests conducted near or below the NNSS water table between 1951 and 1992. Groundwater models are being used to simulate contaminant transport and forecast contaminant boundaries that encompass areas where the groundwater has a five percent or greater probability of containing contaminants above the Safe Drinking Water Act Maximum Contaminant Levels (SDWA MCLs) at any time during the next 1,000 years. Transport modeling conducted for the Frenchman Flat Corrective Action Unit (CAU) at the NNSS identified the beta/photon-emitting radionuclides tritium (3H), carbon-14 ( 14 C), chlorine-36 ( 36 Cl), technetium-99 ( 99 Tc), and iodine-129 ( 129 I) as having the greatest influence in defining the farthest extent of the modeled CAU contaminant boundary. These same radionuclides are assumed here as the contaminants of concern (COCs) for all underground nuclear tests at the NNSS because models are not yet complete for the other CAUs. Potential public exposure to the COCs will only occur and be of concern if the COCs migrate into the groundwater beneath public or private lands at levels that exceed either individual SDWA MCLs or dose and risk limits. Groundwater flow directions strongly suggest that any contaminant boundary predicted by contaminant fate and transport modeling to overlap public or private lands is more likely to occur to the west and/or southwest of the NNSS and the adjacent Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR). Well-established, rural communities exist in these directions. Estimates of representative activity concentrations at the applicable SDWA MCL were developed for the five COCs. It is assumed that these COC concentrations may collectively occur at some public or private location in the future, but that situation does not exist today. These representative activity concentrations are evaluated with respect to conforming collectively to a modern annual committed effective dose (CED) and lifetime excess cancer morbidity risk for a hypothetical reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI). This approach goes beyond the SDWA MCL focus of the contaminant boundary because individual COC concentrations may comply with the SDWA MCL but not collectively meet the modern health-protection metrics and the SDWA language, especially if future modeling studies or monitoring activities show multiple radionuclides from different SDWA MCL categories to be COCs. For the drinking water exposure pathway alone, the annual committed effective dose (CED) for the RMEI from all five COCs that are collectively at estimated activity concentrations equal to their SDWA MCL is well below the U.S. Department of Energy health-protective CED limit of 100 millirem (mrem)/yr. This is consistent using both the NNSS unclassified, 1992 decay-corrected radionuclide atom inventory and the atom inventory based on radionuclides measured in groundwater obtained from the ALMENDRO cavity in 2009 to calculate the SDWA MCL activity concentrations in groundwater. The RMEI’s total lifetime excess cancer risk from the drinking water exposure pathway for both atom inventories is within the range of 1 × 10 -4 to ≤ 1 × 10 -6 , which is considered health protective according to modern SDWA MCL regulatory language. The biosphere exposure pathways are drinking water, garden produce, animal products, inadvertent soil ingestion, and indoor and outdoor air inhalation. The exposure parameters for communities west and southwest of the NNSS were developed when the Yucca Mountain high-level, nuclear-waste disposal facility was under consideration. For all biosphere exposure pathways, calculations of the annual CED and lifetime excess cancer morbidity risk for the RMEI revealed that: 1) The annual CED is well within health-protective guidance (<< 100 mrem CED /yr) for the COC activity concentrations at the SDWA MCL, regardless of the atom inventory used. 2) The calculated 70-year lifetime excess cancer morbidity risk (6 x 10 -5 ) is within the health-protective range when the five COC activity concentrations are derived using the NNSS 1992 atom inventory, but it is at the upper limit of the acceptable range (1 x 10 -4 ) using the ALMENDRO 2009 atom inventory. 3) Tritium (3H) is the principal COC for producing annual dose and lifetime excess cancer risk, regardless of the atom inventory used. 4) Overall, the drinking water ingestion pathway is the dominant exposure pathway contributing to the total annual CED and lifetime excess cancer risk, followed by eating locally grown produce and animal products. 5) When tritium completely decays (after about 100 years), the RMEI’s lifetime risk will fall well within the health-protective range (i.e., 1 × 10-4 to ≤ 1 × 10 -6 ) and 36Cl will then become the most important contributor to the RMEI’s total annual CED and lifetime excess cancer morbidity risk from eating local produce and animal products. In the event that radionuclide concentrations begin to approach SDWA MCLs, a reasonable risk-management strategy for keeping lifetime risk more in compliance with regulatory guidance would be to use local sources of groundwater that are below SDWA MCLs or to limit the consumption of local produce and animal products that have ingested COC-contaminated groundwater. The viability of the latter strategy increases where the annual CED due to 36Cl approaches that of 3H.The dose and risk values calculated here for an RMEI are specific to the assumption that the five COCs occur in groundwater beneath public or private lands at concentrations that are collectively at the SDWA MCL. Currently, these COCs are essentially absent from groundwater beneath public or private lands beyond the boundaries of the NNSS and NTTR other than at very low, naturally occurring concentrations. The analyses presented here can be readily applied to determine dose and risk for COC concentrations actually measured in future monitoring samples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dissolved Organic Carbon 14C in Southern Nevada Groundwater and Implications for Groundwater Travel Times

Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) carbon-14 ( 14 C) ages must be corrected for complex chemical and physical reactions and processes that change the amount of 14 C in groundwater as it flows from recharge to downgradient areas. Because of these reactions, DIC 14 C can produce unrealistically old ages and long groundwater travel times that may, or may not, agree with travel times estimated by other methods. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) 14 C ages are often younger than DIC 14 C ages because there are few chemical reactions or physical processes that change the amount of DOC 14 C in groundwater. However, there are several issues that create uncertainty in DOC 14 C groundwater ages including limited knowledge of the initial (A 0 ) DOC 14 C in groundwater recharge and potential changes in DOC composition as water moves through an aquifer. This study examines these issues by quantifying A 0 DOC 14 C in recharge areas of southern Nevada groundwater flow systems and by evaluating changes in DOC composition as water flows from recharge areas to downgradient areas. The effect of these processes on DOC 14 C groundwater ages is evaluated and DOC and DIC 14 C ages are then compared along several southern Nevada groundwater flow paths. Twenty-seven groundwater samples were collected from springs and wells in southern Nevada in upgradient, midgradient, and downgradient locations. DOC 14 C for upgradient samples ranged from 96 to 120 percent modern carbon (pmc) with an average of 106 pmc, verifying modern DOC 14 C ages in recharge areas, which decreases uncertainty in DOC 14 C A 0 values, groundwater ages, and travel times. The HPLC spectra of groundwater along a flow path in the Spring Mountains show the same general pattern indicating that the DOC compound composition does not change along this flow path. Although DOC concentration decreases from recharge-area to downgradient groundwater, the organic compounds are similar, indicating that DOC 14 C is unaffected by other processes such as microbial degradation. A small amount of organic carbon was leached from crushed volcanic and carbonate aquifer outcrop rock in rock-leaching experiments. The leached DOC was high in 14 C (75 pmc carbonate rocks, 91 pmc volcanic) suggesting that the leached DOC likely came from microbes in the rock samples. The small amount of DOC and high 14 C indicates that the amount of old organic carbon in these rocks is low so there should be minimal impact on groundwater DOC 14 C ages. Based on the results from this study, DOC 14 C ages do not require additional corrections. Several correction models were applied to DIC 14 C ages to correct for water-rock reactions along two carbonate and two volcanic flow paths and the corresponding travel times were compare to DOC 14 C travel times. The DOC 14 C travel times were hundreds to thousands of years shorter than uncorrected and corrected DIC 14 C travel times except for the upper section of one carbonate flow path. DOC 14 C travel times ranged from 400 to 5,400 years as compared to DIC 14 C that ranged from modern to 20,900 years. The DIC 14 C ages are greatly influenced by carbonate mineral and gas reactions and other processes such as matrix diffusion, isotope exchange, or adsorption, which are not always adequately accounted for in DIC 14 C groundwater age correction models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Russia's Conventional Precision Strike Capabilities, Regional Crises, and Nuclear Thresholds

The potential for war between Russia and the West has returned after a long hiatus, despite the many effor ts of the United States and its NATO allies to remake the relationship with Russia by putting it on a much more cooperative footing. A central question for the West is what role nuclear escalation by Russia might play in such a confl ict. It is common today to hear Western experts argue that Russia’s nuclear threshold has fallen—and that it will rise again as Russia’s modernization of its general purpose forces plays out in coming years. A close examination of this topic points to a different set of conclusions. Russia’s nuclear threshold has not so much fallen as changed, becoming more fl uid and less predictable. The modernization that will matter to Russia’s future nuclear threshold is not the modernization of the general purpose forces but the newly diversifi ed strategic toolkit, which includes multiple new non-nuclear tools. Western deterrence strategies must adapt to a circumstance that appears somewhat similar to Cold War challenges but is in fact substantially different.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Executive Summary: Prototype Design, Analysis, and Results for a Liquid Radiological Waste Control Room

Under the United States Department of Energy Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS), Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is collaborating with Palo Verde Generating Station (PVGS) to support human factors engineering efforts in the modernization of PVNGS’ radiological waste system (LRS) control room. The studies proposed and/or conducted by INL are designed to address the inconsistency between different human factors standards, guidance, and conventions. Guidance such as NUREG-0700 leave much of the information open to interpretation. INL will identify whether maintaining a design that is consistent with population stereotypes actually enhances performance, or whether there are alternative designs that yield performance that is better than the designs that maintain those stereotypes. The overall design concept for the LRS workstation includes system overview displays for the Evaporator system and the Boric Acid Concentrator system. A third display contains overview information for the rest of the LRS. The forth display contains alarm information. Each display will be presented on one of four monitors in the control room. The system overview displays contain embedded controls for valves and pumps, mini-trends, and micro-trends. The mini-trends present data for the controllers and contain alarm set point information as well as trending. All other relevant system parameters are shown on micro-trends. The semi-dull screen approach utilized present dynamic data in green, active components are white (gray when closed or off). The product stream flow paths are indicated by different colors. Alarm states are presented in saturated red and selected components are indicated by bright blue. In addition to the micro task study described below, the INL researchers also conducted an evaluation of the semi-dull screen approach as well as an ergonomic evaluation of the suggested upgrades in the local control room. A detailed report of all INL’s activities related to the modernization of the LRS conducted between October 2016 and September 2017 are found in these two reports; • INL-EXT-17-43226, Prototype Design, Analysis, and Results for a Liquid Radiological Waste Control Room, and • INL-EXT-17-43250, Evaluation of Control Room Interface Designs to Support Modernization in Nuclear Power Plants.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Automation of Data Collection Methods for Online Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plants

Maintenance activities in the United States nuclear power industry are mainly centered on preventive and corrective maintenance. Predictive maintenance, which is a variable time basis maintenance strategy that is dependent on the condition of the equipment, is less utilized but potentially more effective. In the current maintenance practices, the nuclear power plants rely on manual processes to supply information to a human decision making process. The plants have several processes that generate information that is not typically used beyond the intended target for collecting that information. This information is a source of data that is manually collected by labor intensive tasks. The data is therefore expensive to collect, yet limited in use. The industry has realized the opportunity present in reducing the labor intensive tasks by automating them and increasing the uses of the data collected by either developing advanced predictive maintenance methods using data-driven decision making that could span from trending to machine learning and artificial intelligence. This shift in maintenance strategy may result in high cost saving impact. In addition to reducing labor requirements and frequency of maintenance activities, this shift in strategy will reduce the materials portion of the operations and maintenance cost as well. The aim of this specific effort is to focus on the automation of data collection process. It is part of a series of planned efforts to target multiple elements of migrating the current preventive maintenance approach in nuclear power plants to a data-driven approach. These elements include data collection, management, analysis, visualization, in addition to value analysis and change enabling. The other five elements of migration were not considered because they are planned to be explicitly studied in multiple parallel efforts. Challenges including regulations requirements or limitations are planned in a future effort that focuses on change enabling. The risk and benefit/cost of the approach shift is planned in another effort targeted towards value. The storage, communication, computational power, data architecture, and protection are part of the information infrastructure and are planned in dedicated data management effort. The best means to present the data for assisted human decision making is planned in a data visualization effort. The data interpretation and patterns recognition for machine decision making is planned through multiple efforts in data analytics over the following years. This work identified seventeen data sources collection methods in nuclear power plants that could be automated for an integrated data platform that enables comprehensive and informed decision making. For each of the identified seventeen data sources, the base, modern, and state of the art states were described. The current state of data collection used by most utilities was identified as the "base state". The current achievable state was identified as the "modern state", a state that has either been achieved by at least some US utilities or in other industries. The future state that requires research and development to reach was identified as the "state of the art" state. The described states used an out-of-the-box thinking approach. This effort found that there is a hug potential for task automation and data fidelity improvements by evolving the current industry data collection methods. The majority of the processes analyzed were found to be manual and labor intensive and fell in the base state. As a result, the modern state often targeted reducing the manual logging efforts by using electronic and semi-intelligent means or complementing the work with sensors and mobile or fixed technologies that can reduce the demand of labor activities. The state of the art state involved applications advanced methods of data correlation, data mining, and machine learning along with increasing the spatial distribution and fidelity of data, coupling multiple data sources, and enabling the use of sophisticated mobile devices and machine comprehension methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Light Output and Thermal Blast Analysis of Nuclear Fireballs

During the 1940s, 50s, and 60s, there were 210 atmospheric nuclear tests. Every test was extensively recorded with high quality motion picture films and photographs, providing a unique historic record, containing ~10,000 films, with a total of ~22 million frames of information. Much of what is known about the effects of nuclear weapons has been obtained from these tests. There are approximately 6500 scientific films that are in the process of being scanned by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and re-analyzed using modern computer techniques. The four major effects of a nuclear detonation are prompt radiation, shockwave, thermal blast, and fallout. The objective of this interim report is to describe recent efforts to extract benchmark data from the existing streak films using modern Figure-processing techniques. These new and, hopefully, greatly-improved data will provide our code developers with the benchmark data necessary to validate our modern computer codes that simulate nuclear weapon effects.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗