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At least 1,441 records · Page 80

Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables for High Temperature Gas-Cooled Microreactors

Micro-scaled high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (micro-HTGRs) offer a promising option for reliable power in remote or off-grid locations. While the safety characteristics of modular HTGRs have been widely studied, a micro-HTGR configuration alters several key thermal-fluid phenomena that govern both normal operation and passive decay-heat removal. In many proposed concepts, the reactor vessel is oriented horizontally and integrated into an ISO shipping container to enhance transportability and modular deployment. This report documents a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) exercise focused on the thermal hydraulic safety phenomena relevant to all micro-HTGRs. The objective is to systematically identify, describe, and rank the importance, uncertainty, and modeling complexity of the key phenomena that control core and vessel temperatures during normal operation, pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC), and depressurized conduction cooldown (with air ingress) conditions.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Giant kelp genetic monitoring before and after disturbance reveals stable genetic diversity in Southern California

Given the impacts of climate change and other anthropogenic stressors on marine systems, there is a need to accurately predict how species respond to changing environments and disturbance regimes. The use of genetic tools to monitor temporal trends in populations gives ecologists the ability to estimate changes in genetic diversity and effective population size that may be undetectable by traditional census methods. Although multiple studies have used temporal genetic analysis, they usually involve commercially important species, and rarely sample before and after disturbance. In this study, we run a temporal analysis of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera , genetic diversity over the scope of 10 years (2008-2018) using the same microsatellite marker panel to assess the genetic consequences of disturbance in several populations of giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) in the Southern California Bight. The study is a rare pre- and post-disturbance microsatellite analysis that included declines to giant kelp caused by the 2015/16 El Nino Southern Oscillation event. We used canopy biomass estimated by remote sensing (Landsat) to quantify the extent of disturbance to kelp beds, and sea surface temperature data to understand how kelp was pushed towards its temperature limits during this period. Despite prolonged periods with decreased canopy at several sites, no changes in genetic structure and allelic richness were observed. We argue that giant kelp in the region is best described as a “patchy population” system where true extinctions are rare. We discuss how deep refugia of subsurface sporophytes and cryptic microscopic life stages could have kept genetic diversity through disturbance. Given the increasing effects of climate change and uncertainty in modeling impacts of species with cryptic life history stages, we suggest further investigation to reveal the role such stages play in species resilience. Genetic monitoring studies of sites selected by remote census demographic and climate surveys should be continued in the future given the predicted impacts of climate change.

Klingbeil, III, William H.↗

Series FACTS Devices for Increasing Resiliency in Severe Weather Conditions

Severe weather conditions are low-probability, high-impact events that affect grid operations. The majority of power outages are caused by severe weather conditions. Grid resiliency to weather events can be enhanced by decreasing the reliance on its affected sections. One way to do this is to reduce the power flow through lines vulnerable to severe weather. If a line is disconnected, its initial power flow is distributed through the neighbor lines, which may cause congestion in the grid. FACTS devices can be used to control the power flow of lines that have a higher chance of power outages. Most previous works do not consider weather events in power flow control. In this work, a linearized optimal power flow (OPF)–based algorithm is developed to minimize the real power flow of vulnerable lines considering the thermal limits of lines to prevent infeasible solutions; the simulation is fast, making it suitable for large-scale systems. The proposed optimization problem is presented as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP), making it capable of using short-term load forecasting due to its high solution speed. The proposed optimization problem considers multiple lines with different outage probabilities and the uncertainties of the weather forecast. Moreover, it estimates the power reduction in vulnerable lines due to changes in the series FACTS devices. The performance of the proposed optimization problem is tested on IEEE 14-, 30-, and 118-bus systems for several scenarios. The results are validated with the AC power flow results from MATPOWER.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Propagating Uncertainties in the SALT3 Model-training Process to Cosmological Constraints

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are standardizable candles that must be modeled empirically to yield cosmological constraints. To understand the robustness of this modeling to variations in the model-training procedure, we build an end-to-end pipeline to test the recently developed SALT3 model. We explore the consequences of removing pre-2000s low-z or poorly calibrated U-band data, adjusting the amount and fidelity of SN Ia spectra, and using a model-independent framework to simulate the training data. We find that the SALT3 model surfaces are improved by having additional spectra and U-band data, and can be shifted by ~5% if host-galaxy contamination is not sufficiently removed from SN spectra. We find that resulting measurements of w are consistent to within 2.5% for all of the training variants explored in this work, with the largest shifts coming from variants that add color-dependent calibration offsets or host-galaxy contamination to the training spectra and those that remove pre-2000s low-z data. These results demonstrate that the SALT3 model-training procedure is largely robust to reasonable variations in the training data, but that additional attention must be paid to the treatment of spectroscopic data in the training process. We also find that the training procedure is sensitive to the color distributions of the input data—the resulting w measurement can be biased by ~2% if the color distribution is not sufficiently wide. Future low-z data, particularly u-band observations and high signal-to-noise ratio SN Ia spectra, will help to significantly improve SN Ia modeling in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Differences in fine particle chemical composition on clear and cloudy days

Clouds are prevalent and alter fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) mass and chemical composition. Cloud-affected satellite retrievals are subject to higher uncertainty and are often removed from data products, hindering quantitative estimates of tropospheric chemical composition during cloudy times. We examine surface PM 2.5 chemical constituent concentrations in the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network in the United States during cloudy and clear-sky times defined using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud flags from 2010 to 2014 with a focus on differences in particle species that affect hygroscopicity and aerosol liquid water (ALW). Cloudy and clear-sky periods exhibit significant differences in PM 2.5 mass and chemical composition that vary regionally and seasonally. In the eastern US, relative humidity alone cannot explain differences in ALW, suggesting that emissions and in situ chemistry related to anthropogenic sources exert determining impacts. An implicit clear-sky bias may hinder efforts to quantitatively understand and improve representation of aerosol–cloud interactions, which remain dominant uncertainties in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Incomplete state feedback for systems with parameter uncertainty and random disturbances

A unified design philosophy is presented for limited state feedback control problems with parameter uncertainty for both deterministic and stochastic problems. Two approaches are considered: linear compensator for the deterministic problem with parameter uncertainty, and for the single input-single output system with parameter uncertainty, a model on order equal to that of the system less the number of zeroes. The limitations of these approaches are discussed along with suggestions for further research.

Basuthakur, S.↗

A guidance and navigation system for continuous low thrust vehicles

A midcourse guidance and navigation system for continuous low thrust vehicles is described. A set of orbit elements, known as the equinoctial elements, are selected as the state variables. The uncertainties are modelled statistically by random vector and stochastic processes. The motion of the vehicle and the measurements are described by nonlinear stochastic differential and difference equations respectively. A minimum time nominal trajectory is defined and the equation of motion and the measurement equation are linearized about this nominal trajectory. An exponential cost criterion is constructed and a linear feedback guidance law is derived to control the thrusting direction of the engine. Using this guidance law, the vehicle will fly in a trajectory neighboring the nominal trajectory. The extended Kalman filter is used for state estimation. Finally a short mission using this system is simulated. The results indicate that this system is very efficient for short missions.

Tse, C. J. C.↗

A guidance and navigation system for continuous low-thrust vehicles

A midcourse guidance and navigation system for continuous low thrust vehicles was developed. The equinoctial elements are the state variables. Uncertainties are modelled statistically by random vector and stochastic processes. The motion of the vehicle and the measurements are described by nonlinear stochastic differential and difference equations respectively. A minimum time trajectory is defined; equations of motion and measurements are linearized about this trajectory. An exponential cost criterion is constructed and a linear feedback quidance law is derived. An extended Kalman filter is used for state estimation. A short mission using this system is simulated. It is indicated that this system is efficient for short missions, but longer missions require accurate trajectory and ground based measurements.

Jack-Chingtse, C.↗

Orbital flux integrations: Parameter values for effective computer time reductions

To improve computer utilization and to reduce the cost of orbital flux integrations, the effects of integration parameters 'duration' (T) and 'stepsize' (delta t) on integration results were investigated. Over given ranges of T and delta t, and within specified acceptable accuracy restraints, optimal values of these parameters were established for circular subsynchronous trajectories, in terms of the variables altitude (H) and inclination (i). It is shown that (1) above a certain statistically important value, duration is independent of both h and i; (2) stepsize has a relative altitude dependence; and (3) stepsize is not a function of inclination. The substantial savings in computer time are discussed along with the possibility of greater savings by relaxing accuracy restrictions while not exceeding the minimum model-associated uncertainty factors of the environments.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗

Petrogenesis in a modestly endowed moon

Four lines of recent evidence show that the moon is more modestly endowed in refractory elements and heat sources than previously thought. However, even this reduced endowment is adequate for the genesis of known lunar rock types. The thickness and nature of the initially molten zone and the structure of the crust and the lithosphere produced from it are the major uncertainties in models of lunar petrogenesis.

Hubbard, N. J.↗

Uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. I - Development of a concise stratospheric model. II - Monte Carlo analysis of imprecisions due to reaction rates

The paper discusses the development of a concise stratospheric model which uses iteration to obtain coupling between interacting species. The one-dimensional, steady-state, diurnally-averaged model generates diffusion equations with appropriate sources and sinks for species odd oxygen, H2O, H2, CO, N2O, odd nitrogen, CH4, CH3Cl, CCl4, CF2Cl2, CFCl3, and odd chlorine. The model evaluates steady-state perturbations caused by injections of chlorine and NO(x) and may be used to predict ozone depletion. The model is used in a Monte Carlo study of the propagation of reaction-rate imprecisions by calculating an ozone perturbation caused by the addition of chlorine. Since the model is sensitive to only 10 of the more than 50 reaction rates considered, only about 1000 Monte Carlo cases are required to span the space of possible results.

Rundel, R. D.↗

Dynamics and control of a large space antenna

It is pointed out that large space antennae and other large space structures will play an important role in the coming decades as commercial applications of space become feasible. A investigation is conducted of the structural dynamics and the control properties for a 64-meter diameter center fed antenna. Attention is given to antenna configuration and structural dynamic porperties, the attitude and structural control system, disturbance assessment, hardware sizing, the construction of weighting matrices, and numerical results. It is found that structural uncertainties and model error can cause serious performance deterioration and can even destabilize the controllers. Flight test and in-orbit system identification of critical structural modes will insure performance and reduce risk for large space antenna missions.

Wang, S. J.↗

The surface glow of the Atmosphere Explorer C and E satellites

Detailed line intensities of the rotational-vibrational spectrum of OH are calculated for various rates of population of sixteen bound vibrational levels in which the rotational level populations are in thermal equilibrium. The line intensities are convolved with the instrument function of the Visible Airglow Experiment on the AE C and E satellites to obtain spectra for comparison with the atmospheric data. Within the uncertainties, a model can be constructed that reproduces the observed spectrum. Synthetic spectra are computed for the OH Meinel system between 2000 A and 5.5 microns. The maximum intensity occurs between 1 micron and 2 microns.

Langhoff, S. R.↗

Predicted interplanetary distribution of Lyman-alpha intensity and polarization

Techniques to reduce the uncertainties in model calculations of the interplanetary distribution of Lyman-alpha polarization and intensity are identified. In particular, the applications of a scheme for mapping the degree of linear polarization from a spacecraft at various locations in the Solar System is discussed. A sample calculation of the sky distribution of both intensity and polarization is presented, on the basis of a variety of models for neutral hydrogen. It is found that the polarization distribution over the sky is significantly different from the intensity distribution, and that the maximum degree of polarization of the Lyman-alpha line increases with heliocentric distance from the spacecraft from 0 to about 18 percent at a distance of 20 AU. A schematic drawing is provided in order to illustrate the mapping scheme.

Ajello, J. M.↗

Comparison of ozone data derived from SBUV and SAGE with emphasis on longitudinal variations

Stratospheric ozone observations performed by the SBAV and SAGE satellite instruments in March and April 1979 are analyzed and compared to other data, where available; in the absence of ground-truth data the experimental uncertainties are modeled by intercomparison of the measurements. The signal-to-noise ratios for the detectability of longitudinal variation in ozone are estimated for both SBUV and SAGE instruments. The analysis of longitudinal variation data reveals significant differences in amplitudes obtained in individual events in which rapid amplitude changes with height were present. Finally, a systematic overestimation of ozone by 20 percent by the SAGE instrument and underestimation by SBUV by about 15 percent at 50-70 latitudes at 10 mb is noted.

Cunnold, D.↗

Least squares collocation applied to local gravimetric solutions from satellite gravity gradiometry data

An autonomous spaceborne gravity gradiometer mission is being considered as a post Geopotential Research Mission project. The introduction of satellite diometry data to geodesy is expected to improve solid earth gravity models. The possibility of utilizing gradiometer data for the determination of pertinent gravimetric quantities on a local basis is explored. The analytical technique of least squares collocation is investigated for its usefulness in local solutions of this type. It is assumed, in the error analysis, that the vertical gravity gradient component of the gradient tensor is used as the raw data signal from which the corresponding reference gradients are removed to create the centered observations required in the collocation solution. The reference gradients are computed from a high degree and order geopotential model. The solution can be made in terms of mean or point gravity anomalies, height anomalies, or other useful gravimetric quantities depending on the choice of covariance types. Selected for this study were 30 x 30 foot mean gravity and height anomalies. Existing software and new software are utilized to implement the collocation technique. It was determined that satellite gradiometry data at an altitude of 200 km can be used successfully for the determination of 30 x 30 foot mean gravity anomalies to an accuracy of 9.2 mgal from this algorithm. It is shown that the resulting accuracy estimates are sensitive to gravity model coefficient uncertainties, data reduction assumptions and satellite mission parameters.

Robbins, J. W.↗

A review of dynamic inflow and its effect on experimental correlations

A review is given of the relationship between experimental data and the development of modern dynamic-inflow theory. Some of the most interesting data, first presented 10 years ago at the Dynamic Specialist's Meeting, is now reviewed in light of the newer theories. These pure blade-flapping data correlate very well with analyses that include the new dynamic inflow theory, thus verifying the theory. Experimental data are also presented for damping with coupled inplane and body motions. Although inclusion of dynamic inflow is often required to correlate this coupled data, the data cannot be used to verify any particular dynamic inflow theory due to the uncertainties in modeling the inplane degree of freedom. For verification, pure flapping is required. However, the coupled data do show that inflow is often important in such computations.

Gaonkar, G. H.↗