Results for “Model prediction” — Page 80

DOE OSTI2020

Analytical formula for pellet fuel source density in toroidal plasma configurations based on an areal deposition model

An analytical formula for the fuel source density η F (Ψ) over a magnetic flux surface Ψ following pellet injection is derived. During pellet motion the ablated and ionized fuel will be initially deposited nearby the pellet, prior to subsequent homogenization within the magnetic flux surfaces. Here in our research, it is assumed that the deposition area projected normal to the magnetic field is on the order of the cross-sectional area of the ionized ablation column whose axis is aligned with the magnetic field. Previous pellet deposition codes [1] employed a point source deposition approximation, which overpredicts the surface-averaged density, particularly when the obliquity between the pellet trajectory and the flux surface normal approaches 90 degrees. A key finding of this study is that as the obliquity approaches 90 degrees, grazing trajectory, the areal model predicts a well behaved η F and removes the unphysical divergence stemming from the point model. To illustrate the difference exhibited between areal and point models for near grazing trajectories, we considered vertical pellet injection into a CFETR-like tokamak with a negative triangularity plasma cross section using a pellet ablation/deposition module.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparing galaxy formation in the L-GALAXIES semi-analytical model and the IllustrisTNG simulations

ABSTRACT We perform a comparison, object by object and statistically, between the Munich semi-analytical model, L-GALAXIES, and the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulations. By running L-GALAXIES on the IllustrisTNG dark matter-only merger trees, we identify the same galaxies in the two models. This allows us to compare the stellar mass, star formation rate, and gas content of galaxies, as well as the baryonic content of subhaloes and haloes in the two models. We find that both the stellar mass functions and the stellar masses of individual galaxies agree to better than ${\sim} 0.2\,$dex. On the other hand, specific star formation rates and gas contents can differ more substantially. At z = 0, the transition between low-mass star-forming galaxies and high-mass quenched galaxies occurs at a stellar mass scale ${\sim} 0.5\,$dex lower in IllustrisTNG than that in L-GALAXIES. IllustrisTNG also produces substantially more quenched galaxies at higher redshifts. Both models predict a halo baryon fraction close to the cosmic value for clusters, but IllustrisTNG predicts lower baryon fractions in group environments. These differences are primarily due to differences in modelling feedback from stars and supermassive black holes. The gas content and star formation rates of galaxies in and around clusters and groups differ substantially, with IllustrisTNG satellites less star forming and less gas rich. We show that environmental processes such as ram-pressure stripping are stronger and operate to larger distances and for a broader host mass range in IllustrisTNG. We suggest that the treatment of galaxy evolution in the semi-analytic model needs to be improved by prescriptions that capture local environmental effects more accurately.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nature of quantum criticality in the Ising ferromagnet TbV 6 Sn 6

TbV 6 Sn 6 is a topological metal where ferromagnetic Tb ions with strong uniaxial magnetic anisotropy interact with V kagome layers. Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) measurements show that the Tb ions adopt an Ising doublet ground state. Here, we consider whether a transverse magnetic field can drive TbV 6 Sn 6 toward a quantum critical point, providing a rare example of transverse-field Ising criticality in a metallic compound. High-field magnetization measurements reveal a first-order-like spin-reorientation transition at 25.6 T. Our INS-based magnetic model finds that this is caused by an avoided crossing of an excited-state singlet with the ground-state doublet. Surprisingly, our model predicts that quantum critical and tricritical points are accessible within the range of experimentally determined model parameters and may be reached by varying the direction of an applied magnetic field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Emergence and Promise of Functional Chemogeography of Organic Matter

Organisms in ecosystems continuously release a myriad of organic matter molecules that undergo microbial and abiotic transformation, processes that critically influence carbon storage and climate feedbacks. Yet, a systematic understanding of what determines the transformation and persistence of organic matter across spatiotemporal scales remains elusive. We propose an emerging framework, termed “functional chemogeography,” to understand transformation and persistence of organic matter based on the chemical traits of molecules. This framework extends beyond a sole focus on intrinsic traits, which remain relatively constant across spatiotemporal scales, to emphasize extrinsic traits such as biochemical transformations and environmental responses, which vary spatiotemporally and are shaped by both intrinsic traits and the environment. When upscaled to the assemblage level using functional diversity indices, these extrinsic traits reveal a significant, and in some cases superior, capacity than intrinsic traits to explain biogeochemical processes, as demonstrated through a case study of dissolved organic matter in China's lakes. In conclusion, by integrating trait-based perspectives into predictive models, this framework helps bridge chemical complexity with ecosystem biogeochemistry, thereby advancing our ability to predict the fate of global organic carbon under environmental change.

chemical traits↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simplified Model and Approach to Transform Infrared Surface Temperature to Film Effectiveness in a Conjugate Heat Transfer Experiment

In the pursuit of more efficient gas turbines, film cooling is a critical technology. This article describes a simplified engineering model based on a one-dimensional thermal resistance network. The model is used to relate film-cooling effectiveness and heat transfer augmentation to local overall cooling effectiveness in a conjugate flat plate experiment. Here, this article presents experimental proof-of-concept data to demonstrate the potential for this model. In contrast to previous approaches, neither the wall heat flux nor the adiabatic wall temperature is required to estimate the local film-cooling performance parameters. The model predicts surface temperatures that are within the experimental uncertainties over the range for which the model is trained and to within five percent when the model is extrapolated to higher coolant channel Reynolds numbers. This article is relevant to conjugate test rigs that can measure the hot-surface temperature distribution with and without film cooling. This information may also be relevant to designers as a method to approximate surface temperatures or used as an approximate heat transfer model for optimization studies.

advanced turbines↗

DOE OSTI2020

HPC4Mfg with Carbon Inc.

Continuous Liquid Interface Production (CLIP) is poised to bring additive manufacturing to multiple American manufacturing sectors owing to its unique combination of rapid print speeds and material options that resemble injection molding thermoplastics. In spite of these benefits, CLIP is still a maturing process. To improve our understanding and control of the process, this project developed a multi-physics computational model that encompasses the coupled chemical-physical processes of photopolymerization and fluid flow to predict part outcomes. A physically predictive model can enable rapid optimization of CLIP and reduce the current cycle time and waste associated with optimization by four-fold. Ultimately, this effort will help open the U.S. $400B plastic manufacturing industry to the key benefits of additive manufacturing, namely mass customization, unlimited design space, and a cost- and energy-effective path to mainstream manufacturing. In the course of the project we produced a model which coupled fluid-flow, species transport, and photochemistry to model the Carbon CLIP process. As the development proceeded, we validated the code against theory and experiments. The resulting code was transferred to Carbon, and we expect it to be a useful part of their modeling capability. Future work includes improvements to the fluid solver’s robustness and performance, along with the addition of additional physics models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Multi-physics Model to Optimize Continuous Liquid Interface Production (CLIP) for Additive Manufacturing (Carbon3D HPC4Mfg Final Report)

Continuous Liquid Interface Production (CLIP) is poised to bring additive manufacturing to multiple American manufacturing sectors owing to its unique combination of rapid print speeds and material options that resemble injection molding thermoplastics. In spite of these benefits, CLIP is still a maturing process. To improve our understanding and control of the process, this project developed a multi-physics computational model that encompasses the coupled chemical-physical processes of photopolymerization and fluid flow to predict part outcomes. A physically predictive model can enable rapid optimization of CLIP and reduce the current cycle time and waste associated with optimization by four-fold. Ultimately, this effort will help open the U.S. $400B plastic manufacturing industry to the key benefits of additive manufacturing, namely mass customization, unlimited design space, and a cost- and energy-effective path to mainstream manufacturing. In the course of the project we produced a model which coupled fluid-flow, species transport, and photochemistry to model the Carbon CLIP process. As the development proceeded, we validated the code against theory and experiments. The resulting code was transferred to Carbon, and we expect it to be a useful part of their modeling capability. Future work includes improvements to the fluid solver’s robustness and performance, along with the addition of additional physics models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

PHASM: A Toolkit for Creating AI Surrogate Models within Legacy Codebases

PHASM (“Parallel Hardware viA Surrogate Models”) is a software toolkit for creating AI-based surrogate models of scientific code. AI-based surrogate models are widely used for creating fast and inverse simulations. PHASM anticipates an additional future use case: adapting legacy code to modern hardware. While data centers are investing in heterogeneous hardware such as GPUs and FPGAs, many established scientific codebases remain unable to take advantage of the hardware’s higher parallelism without undergoing a costly rewrite. An alternative is to train a AI-based surrogate model to mimic computationally intensive functions in the code, and run the surrogate instead. PHASM formalizes a development lifecycle for such surrogate models, including discovering functions amenable to replacement with a surrogate model, predicting the resulting performance, identifying the function’s space of inputs and outputs, binding the model to the code, and managing model versions. A suite of software tools for facilitating these steps was written and validated against a set of model problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards engineering the growth morphology of anisotropic bicrystals

Eutectic alloys, such as Pb-free Bi-Sn-Ag or Sn-Ag-Cu, are essential for their low melting points in solder joints but suffer from brittle intermetallic phases, reducing reliability. Traditional solder design relies on equilibrium phase diagrams, often neglecting the kinetic influence of crystalline anisotropy during solidification. This study hypothesizes that the energetics at the solid-solid-liquid trijunction dictate crystalline facet selection. Using the Al-Al 3 Ni alloy as a model, this project combines atomistic simulations and experimental methods to understand interfacial energies and develop predictive models. This approach aims to mitigate the negative effects of intermetallics, enhancing component reliability in electronic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Toward the Frontiers of Particle Physics With the Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Experiment

The Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Experiment (E989) at Fermilab has a goal of measuring the muon anomaly ($a_\mu$) with unprecedented precision using positive muons. This measurement is motivated by the difference between the previous Brookhaven $a_\mu$ measurement and Standard Model prediction exceeding three standard deviations, which hints at the possibility of physics beyond the Standard Model. Muons are circulated in a storage ring, and the measurement requires a precise determination of the muon anomalous precession frequency (spin precession relative to momentum) from the resulting decay positron time and energy measurements collected with calorimeters. The average magnetic field seen by the muons needs to be known with high precision, and so the storage ring magnetic field is shimmed to be very uniform and is continually monitored with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) probes. Detailed Muon Campus beamline and muon storage ring simulations are also required for quantifying beam dynamics and spin-related systematic effects in the determination of the muon anomalous precession frequency, e.g. muon losses during the measurement window. At the time of the conference, the experiment has recently commenced Run-3, and the release of Run-1 physics results is planned for 2020.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simplified Model and Approach to Transform Infrared Surface Temperature to Film Effectiveness in a Conjugate Heat Transfer Experiment

This paper describes a simplified engineering model based on a one-dimensional thermal resistance network. The model is used to develop a new method to relate film cooling effectiveness and heat transfer augmentation to local overall cooling effectiveness in a conjugate flat plate experiment. This paper presents experimental proof-of-concept data to demonstrate the potential for this model. In contrast to previous approaches, neither the wall heat flux nor the adiabatic wall temperature is required to estimate the local film cooling performance parameters. The model predicts surface temperatures that are within the experimental uncertainties over the range for which the model is trained, and to within five percent when the model is extrapolated to higher coolant channel Reynolds numbers. This paper is relevant to conjugate test rigs that can measure the hot surface temperature distribution with and without film cooling. This information may also be relevant to designers as a method to approximate surface temperatures or used as an approximate heat transfer model for optimization studies.

advanced gas turbines↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulated wind farm wake sensitivity to configuration choices in the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.8.1

Wakes from wind farms can extend over 50 km downwind in stably stratified conditions. These wakes can undermine power production at downwind turbines, adversely impacting revenue. As such, wind farm wake impacts must be considered in wind resource assessments, especially in regions of dense wind farm development. The open-source Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model includes a wind farm parameterization to estimate wind farm wake effects, but model configuration choices can influence the resulting predictions of wind farm wakes. These choices include vertical resolution, horizontal resolution, and whether or not to include the addition of turbulent kinetic energy generated by the rotating wind turbines. Despite the sensitivity to model configuration, no clear guidance currently exists for these options. Here we compare simulated wind farm wakes produced by varying model configurations with meteorological observations near a land-based wind farm in flat terrain over several diurnal cycles. A WRF configuration comprised of horizontal resolutions of 3 km or 1 km paired with a vertical resolution of 10 m provides the most accurate representation of wind farm wake effects, such as the correct surface warming and elevated wind speed deficit. The inclusion of turbine-generated turbulence is also critical to produce accurate surface warming and should not be omitted.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Confronting a set of Skyrme and $\chi _{EFT}$ predictions for the crust of neutron stars

With the improved accuracy of neutron star observational data, it is necessary to derive new equation of state where the crust and the core are consistently calculated within a unified approach. For this purpose we describe non-uniform matter in the crust of neutron stars employing a compressible liquid-drop model, where the bulk and the neutron fluid terms are given from the same model as the one describing uniform matter present in the core. We then generate a set of fifteen unified equations of state for cold catalyzed neutron stars built on realistic modelings of the nuclear interaction, which belongs to two main groups: the first one derives from the phenomenological Skyrme interaction and the second one from χEFT Hamiltonians. The confrontation of these model predictions allows us to investigate the model dependence for the crust properties, and in particular the effect of neutron matter at low density. Here, the new set of unified equations of state is available at the CompOSE repository.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

On High-Fluence Irradiation Hardening of Nine RPV Surveillance Steels in the UCSB ATR-2 Experiment: Implications for Extended-Life Embrittlement Predictions

Nine archival reactor pressure vessel (RPV) surveillance steels from commercial nuclear power plants were irradiated in the University of California, Santa Barbara Advanced Test Reactor 2 (ATR-2) experiment to evaluate irradiation embrittlement under low-flux surveillance capsule versus higher flux test reactor (ATR-2) conditions. The postirradiation measurements of irradiation hardening, measured as increases in yield stress (Δσy), and corresponding conversions of Δσy to Charpy V-notch 41-J transition temperature shifts (ΔTc) are compared with various embrittlement trend curve (ETC) model predictions for the nine steels. Tensile and converted shear punch and microhardness measurements of Δσy generally show a continuing increase between intermediate and high ATR-2 fluences. The Eason-Odette-Nanstad-Yamamoto and ASTM E900 ETC models underpredict embrittlement at the ATR-2 irradiation condition: irradiation temperature (Ti) of 292°C, neutron fluence (ϕt) of 1.4 × 1020 n/cm2 (E > 1 MeV), and neutron flux (ϕ) of 3.68 × 1012 n/cm2-s. On average, the French FIS and Japanese JAEC ETCs slightly overpredict the ATR-2 data. The increase in Δσy with higher fluence is primarily due to Ni-Mn-Si precipitates, which slowly evolve in both nearly copper-free and copper-bearing steels. Finally, a new Odette-Wells-Almirall-Yamamoto embrittlement model is shown that yields good predictions for the nine steels at high fluences (ϕt > 5.5 × 1019 n/cm2).

Nanstad, Randy K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

On High-Fluence Irradiation Hardening of Nine RPV Surveillance Steels in the UCSB ATR-2 Experiment: Implications for Extended-Life Embrittlement Predictions

Nine archival reactor pressure vessel (RPV) surveillance steels from commercial nuclear power plants were irradiated in the University of California, Santa Barbara Advanced Test Reactor 2 (ATR-2) experiment to evaluate irradiation embrittlement under low-flux surveillance capsule versus higher flux test reactor (ATR-2) conditions. The postirradiation measurements of irradiation hardening, measured as increases in yield stress (Δσy), and corresponding conversions of Δσy to Charpy V-notch 41-J transition temperature shifts (ΔTc) are compared with various embrittlement trend curve (ETC) model predictions for the nine steels. Tensile and converted shear punch and microhardness measurements of Δσy generally show a continuing increase between intermediate and high ATR-2 fluences. The Eason-Odette-Nanstad-Yamamoto and ASTM E900 ETC models underpredict embrittlement at the ATR-2 irradiation condition: irradiation temperature (Ti) of 292°C, neutron fluence (ϕt) of 1.4 × 1020 n/cm2 (E > 1 MeV), and neutron flux (ϕ) of 3.68 × 1012 n/cm2-s. On average, the French FIS and Japanese JAEC ETCs slightly overpredict the ATR-2 data. The increase in Δσy with higher fluence is primarily due to Ni-Mn-Si precipitates, which slowly evolve in both nearly copper-free and copper-bearing steels. Finally, a new Odette-Wells-Almirall-Yamamoto embrittlement model is shown that yields good predictions for the nine steels at high fluences (ϕt > 5.5 × 1019 n/cm2).

Nanstad, Randy↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Stabilizer based Predictive Control Scheme for Smart Inverters in Weak Grid

This paper presents a self-stabilization mechanism based on finite-set model predictive control (FCS-MPC) framework for smart inverters operating in weak grid conditions. As weak grid’s large parasitic impedance and low short-circuitratio (SCR) challenge the stable operation of grid-connected inverters. Specifically, the inverter may experience frequencies that might excite the LCL filter resonance phenomenon. The inverter stability collapses if this LCL resonance is triggered. To address this issue, a robust predictive controller is proposed that features a self-stabilization mechanism for smart inverters interacting with a weak grid. The proposed methodology utilizes the idea that in stiff grid conditions the grid current feedback (GCF) is stable and in weak grid conditions the inverter current feedback (ICF) is stable. Therefore, the proposed FCS-MPC toggles between GCF and ICF to achieve inherent LCL filter resonance damping. The toggling action between GCF and ICF is leveraged by comparing the moving RMS grid current with threshold current as a constrained in the proposed FCS-MPC cost function. The theoretical analyses are verified by several case studies for a single-phase grid-connected inverter. The analysis and results demonstrated that the proposed FCS-MPC operates well under weak, ultra-weak and stiff grid conditions.

Umar, Muhammad Farooq↗

DOE OSTI2023

Controls on Barite (BaSO 4 ) Precipitation in Unconventional Reservoirs

Barite (BaSO 4 ) precipitation is one of the most ubiquitous examples of secondary sulfate mineral scaling in shale oil and gas reservoirs. Often, a suite of chemical additives is used during fracturing operations to inhibit the accumulation of mineral scales, though their efficacy is widely varied and poorly understood. This study combines experimental data and multi-component numerical reactive transport modeling to offer a more comprehensive understanding of the geochemical behavior of barite accumulation in shale matrices under conditions typical of fracturing operations. A variety of additives and conditions are individually tested in batch reactor experiments to identify the factors controlling barite precipitation. Our experimental results demonstrate a pH dependence in the rate of barite precipitation, which we use to develop a predictive model including a pH-dependent term that satisfactorily reproduces our observations. Further, this model is then extended to consider the behavior of three major shale samples of highly variable mineralogy (Eagle Ford, Marcellus, and Barnett). This data-validated model offers a reliable tool to predict and ultimately mitigate against secondary mineral accumulation in unconventional shale reservoirs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Diii-D Research Advancing The Physics Basis For Optimizing The Tokamak Approach To Fusion Energy

DIII-D physics research addresses critical challenges for operation of ITER and the next generation of fusion energy devices. This is done through a focus on innovations to provide solutions for high performance long pulse operation, coupled with fundamental plasma physics understanding and model validation, to drive scenario development by integrating high performance core and boundary plasmas. Substantial increases in off-axis current drive efficiency from an innovative top launch system for EC power, and in pressure broadening for Alfven eigenmode control from a co-/counter-Ip steerable off-axis neutral beam, all improve the prospects for optimization of future long pulse/steady state high performance tokamak operation. Fundamental studies into the modes that drive the evolution of the pedestal pressure profile and electron vs. ion heat flux validate predictive models of pedestal recovery after ELMs. Understanding the physics mechanisms of ELM control and density pumpout by 3D magnetic perturbation fields leads to confident predictions for ITER and future devices. Validated modeling of high-Z shattered pellet injection for disruption mitigation, runaway electron dissipation, and techniques for disruption prediction and avoidance including machine learning, give confidence in handling disruptivity for future devices. With this physics understanding and suite of actuators, a high poloidal beta optimized-core scenario with an internal transport barrier that projects nearly to Q=10 in ITER at 9 MA was coupled to a detached divertor, and a near Super H-mode optimized-pedestal scenario with co-Ip beam injection, was coupled to a radiative divertor. The Hybrid core scenario was achieved directly, without the need for internal flux pumping, using off-axis current drive actuators, and a controller to avoid mode locking and disruptions in the ITER baseline scenario, based on plasma response to probing 3D fields, was demonstrated. Finally innovative tokamak operation using a negative triangularity shape showed many attractive features for future pilot plant operation.

Fenstermacher, M.↗