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At least 1,441 records · Page 80

Fuzzy Modeling and Parallel Distributed Compensation for Aircraft Flight Control from Simulated Flight Data

A method is described that combines fuzzy system identification techniques with Parallel Distributed Compensation (PDC) to develop nonlinear control methods for aircraft using minimal a priori knowledge, as part of NASA’s Learn-to-Fly initiative. A fuzzy model was generated with simulated flight data, and consisted of a weighted average of multiple linear time invariant state-space cells having parameters estimated using the equation-error approach and a least-squares estimator. A compensator was designed for each subsystem using Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMI) to guarantee closed-loop stability and performance requirements. This approach is demonstrated using simulated flight data to automatically develop a fuzzy model and design control laws for a simplified longitudinal approximation of the F-16 nonlinear flight dynamics simulation. Results include a comparison of flight data with the estimated fuzzy models and simulations that illustrate the feasibility and utility of the combined fuzzy modeling and control approach.

Weinstein, Rose↗

Diffusion kinetics of 3 He in pyroxene and plagioclase and applications to cosmogenic exposure dating and paleothermometry in mafic rocks

In this study, we investigate the diffusivity of cosmogenic 3 He in a variety of plagioclase and pyroxene compositions, and its application to paleothermometry and exposure dating in these minerals, through stepwise degassing experiments. While cosmogenic 3 He has been utilized for exposure dating in pyroxene for decades due to its retentivity, plagioclase, often found along with pyroxene in mafic rocks, is generally less retentive of cosmogenic noble gas. However, the diffusivity of 3 He in either plagioclase or pyroxene has not yet been measured quantitatively. A challenge in measuring diffusion kinetics by step-degassing experiments in poorly retentive minerals is the fact that significant amounts of He can be lost prior to the experiment. To address this issue, we apply a forward “multiple diffusion domain” (MDD) inversion model that includes model predictions of initial gas loss during irradiation and storage of the samples to account for this observation and add constraints to the diffusion parameters. We find that 3 He diffusivity in plagioclase appears to be highly variable. This variability can be explained by the MDD inversion models' inability to constrain the diffusion parameters when significant gas has been lost during irradiation and/or prolonged storage prior to experiment analysis, resulting in an overestimation of 3 He retentivity. Plagioclase samples that were kept frozen after irradiation, to limit this initial gas loss, yielded the most reliable estimate of diffusion kinetics. We find that 3 He in plagioclase is diffusively lost at Earth's surface temperatures on a timescale of 100 years and is therefore unsuitable for surface temperature paleothermometry. On the contrary, we find cosmogenic 3 He in pyroxene to be retentive at Earth's surface temperatures on a 1-million-year timescale.

Bergelin, Marie [Berkeley Geochronology Center (BG↗

Projecting the Lasting Fate of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption on the Stratosphere through Connecting Measurements to Models

On 15th Jan. 2022 the submarine volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) injected approximately 0.5 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, but more significantly added 150-170 Tg of water vapor to the stratospheric background (over a 10% perturbation) in a matter of several hours. The sulfur dioxide rapidly converted to sulfate aerosol and along with water vapor, was transported around the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics into midlatitudes with some transport into the Northern Hemisphere. With a much longer lifetime than sulfate aerosol, measurable water vapor mass anomalies have persisted with only small losses over the past almost 2 years and are likely to continue above background for the remainder of the decade. Satellite measurements from limb and nadir viewing observing instruments provide the information needed to reasonably initialize the HTHH eruption in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model using the “replay” framework coupled to the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) stratosphere-troposphere chemical mechanism for the recent past and continue the simulations into the future with the free running chemistry climate model (CCM). Using a number of model ensemble members together with the satellite observations, we quantify how the HTHH eruption is perturbing stratospheric composition and climate and projecting the influences to come as the enhanced water vapor continues in the stratosphere with only very slow removal mechanisms. HTHH eruption provides a useful test of chemistry climate models and an opportunity for observation-based process understanding, which we will highlight.

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai↗

Plant-level performance and degradation of 31 GW DC of utility-scale PV in the United States

In this updated study, which samples 50% more capacity than the original and adds two additional years of operating history, we assess the performance of a fleet of 631 utility-scale PV plants totaling 31.0 GW DC (23.6 GW AC ) of capacity that achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007-2018 and that have operated for at least two full calendar years. We use detailed information on individual plant characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, to model expected or “ideal” capacity factors in each full calendar year of each plant’s operating history. A comparison of ideal versus actual first-year capacity factors finds that this fleet has modestly underperformed initial expectations (as modeled) on average, though perhaps due as much to modeling issues as to actual underperformance. We then analyze fleet-wide performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on plant performance. The resulting average fleet-wide degradation rate of -1.2%/year (±0.1%) represents a slight improvement (seemingly driven by the oldest plants in our sample) over the -1.3%/year (±0.2%) found in our original study, yet is still of greater magnitude than is commonly found. We emphasize, however, that these fleet-wide estimates reflect both recoverable and unrecoverable degradation across the entire plant, and so will naturally be of greater magnitude than module- or cell-level studies, and/or studies that focus only on unrecoverable degradation. Moreover, when focusing on a sub-sample of newer and larger plants with higher DC:AC ratios—i.e., plants that more-closely resemble what is being built today—we find a more moderate sample-wide average performance decline of -0.7%/year (±0.4%), which is more in line with other estimates from the recent literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A comprehensive numerical investigation on spray models for Direct-Injection Spark-Ignition engines

Gasoline direct-injection spark-ignition (DISI) engines generate a large portion of their unburned hydrocarbon (UHC) and soot emissions during the cold-start phase. A predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling framework can be used to understand the physical processes that characterize fuel spray evolution and fuel-film formation at cold start conditions, which can help to reduce engine-out particulate emissions. This study systematically evaluated spray submodels and developed a set of simulation best practices for physical-numerical submodels with the goal of enabling accurate simulations of liquid spray behavior in a DISI engine. Three comprehensive experimental datasets containing free-spray projected liquid volume (PLV), liquid volume fraction (LVF), and near-field X-ray radiography data were used to validate the simulation results and evaluate the spray submodels. Systematic analysis delved into injected parcel distribution, droplet collision, spray breakup, and evaporation via a detailed assessment of the relevant spray submodels. Moreover, the effects of turbulence models and the initial turbulent flow properties on the liquid spray evolution were examined. Based on extensive calibration efforts, a set of simulation best practices for the free spray was developed and validated against the PLV/LVF data. Simulation results indicated that the uniform distribution for parcel initialization, coupled with appropriate droplet collision submodels, provides an improved spray morphology compared to the cluster distribution. The findings also underscored the importance of calibrating the Kelvin-Helmholtz Rayleigh-Taylor (KH-RT) breakup model constants and droplet heat transfer coefficient scaling factor to achieve favorable agreement regarding measured liquid penetration and spray widths. In conclusion, this study marks a substantial stride towards accurately predicting fuel film evolution and soot formation within DISI engine performance.

ECN Spray G↗

International fuel performance study of fresh fuel experiments for PCMI effects during RIA experiments

This paper presents the results of High-burnup Experiments for Reactivity-initiated Accident (HERA) Modeling & Simulation (M&S) exercise. The HERA project under the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Second Framework for Irradiation Experiments (FIDES-II) program is focused on studying Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuel behavior during Reactivity-Initiated Accident (RIA) conditions. The Part I M&S cases are based on a series of tests in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the United States and the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR) in Japan. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the test design to accomplish its goals in establishing clearer understanding of the effects of power pulse width during RIA conditions. Further, the blind predictions using various computational tools have been performed and compared amongst to interpret the behaviors of high burnup fuels during RIA. While many international participants evaluate the thermal–mechanical behavior of fuel rod under different conditions, a considerable scatter of outputs comes out for the cases due to the disparity between codes in predicting mechanical behaviors. In general, however, the results of thermal–mechanical analysis elaborate that nominal design conditions the shorter pulse width tests in NSRR should cause cladding failures while the TREAT tests appear to have more split prediction of failure or not. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis varying key testing parameters reveals the considerable effect of power pulse width and total energy deposition on prediction of fuel rod failure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Collisions and merging of disk galaxies

The stable disks required as initial states for an experiment are produced by embedding the disk (which is visible) in a halo (invisible). The disk is a luminous tracer that represents only 1 percent of the total mass of the system. The stability of the initial state of the model is confirmed experimentally. Collisions with various combinations of initial orbital energy and angular momentum and of disk orientations are investigated. Two initially parabolic cases with different impact parameters are followed in time until the interactions lead to a merger. The interpenetration of the two galaxies gives rise to a contraction and subsequent disruption of the entire system. A variety of responses is found for the visible disks, ranging from stretched-out nearly linear features to rapidly propagating ringlike patterns. It is noted that these forms depend critically on initial disk orientations but do not depend strongly on the sense of disk rotation. The ringlike patterns are found even for collisions with significant impact parameters.

Smith, B. F.↗

2-D Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of A Pulsed Plasma Thruster

Experiments are being performed on the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) MK-1 pulsed plasma thruster. Data produced from the experiments provide an opportunity to further understand the plasma dynamics in these thrusters via detailed computational modeling. The detailed and accurate understanding of the plasma dynamics in these devices holds the key towards extending their capabilities in a number of applications, including their applications as high power (greater than 1 MW) thrusters, and their use for producing high-velocity, uniform plasma jets for experimental purposes. For this study, the 2-D MHD modeling code, MACH2, is used to provide detailed interpretation of the experimental data. At the same time, a 0-D physics model of the plasma initial phase is developed to guide our 2-D modeling studies.

Thio, Y. C. Francis↗

An Experimental Study of a Pulsed Electromagnetic Plasma Accelerator

Experiments are being performed on the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) pulsed electromagnetic plasma accelerator (PEPA-0). Data produced from the experiments provide an opportunity to further understand the plasma dynamics in these thrusters via detailed computational modeling. The detailed and accurate understanding of the plasma dynamics in these devices holds the key towards extending their capabilities in a number of applications, including their applications as high power (greater than 1 MW) thrusters, and their use for producing high-velocity, uniform plasma jets for experimental purposes. For this study, the 2-D MHD modeling code, MACH2, is used to provide detailed interpretation of the experimental data. At the same time, a 0-D physics model of the plasma initial phase is developed to guide our 2-D modeling studies.

Thio, Y. C. Francis↗

Stressed Oxidation Life Prediction for C/SiC Composites

The residual strength and life of C/SiC is dominated by carbon interface and fiber oxidation if seal coat and matrix cracks are open to allow oxygen ingress. Crack opening is determined by the combination of thermal, mechanical and thermal expansion mismatch induced stresses. When cracks are open, life can be predicted by simple oxidation based models with reaction controlled kinetics at low temperature, and by gas phase diffusion controlled kinetics at high temperatures. Key life governing variables in these models include temperature, stress, initial strength, oxygen partial pressure, and total pressure. These models are described in this paper.

Levine, Stanley R.↗

Application of Advanced Earth Observations and Model Simulations to Improve Air Quality Monitoring in the Hindu-Kush-Himalayan Region

Air pollution is a serious environmental health concern in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region of south-central Asia, as rapid industrialization and population growth have led to increased anthropogenic emissions from transportation, residential, industrial, energy, and biomass burning sources. Natural emissions from dust and forest fires are additional sources of air pollutants that can exacerbate air quality in the region. The combination of the complex pollutant mixtures and atmospherically stable weather conditions during the winter monsoon can visibility reductions and hazardous air quality from persistent haze episodes. The Kathmandu Valley is especially vulnerable to extreme haze issues due to the surrounding mountains that restrict air movement and retains pollutants in the atmosphere. This study uses state-of-the-art satellite observations and modeling capabilities in conjunction with ground-based networks to provide a comprehensive data toolkit for advancing air quality monitoring and forecasting decisions in the HKH region. The toolkit includes new generation satellite observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), and Advanced Meteorological Imager, which provide high spatiotemporal information on NO2, HCHO, SO2, O3, and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) are derived from the satellite-retrieved AOD using ground-based observations and forecast model data. The satellite observations are also used to initialize and constrain forecast model systems designed for the HKH region. This talk will highlight the performance of the air quality toolkit for enhancing decision-making processes during exceptional air quality events in the region. Note: Presentation includes additional attachment of full presentation with sound and animation (best when viewed as slide show) with runtime of 15 min 32 secs

Aaron Naeger↗

Spectra and flow of light nuclei in relativistic heavy ion collisions at energies available at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

Within the framework of the coalescence model based on the phase-space distributions of protons and neutrons generated from the iebe-vishnu hybrid model with ampt initial conditions, we study the spectra and elliptic flow of deuterons and helium-3 in relativistic heavy ion collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the CERN Larger Hadron Collider (LHC). Results from our model calculations for Au+Au collisions at √ s NN = 200 GeV at RHIC and Pb+Pb collisions at √ s NN = 2.76 TeV at the LHC are compared with available experimental data. Good agreements are generally seen between theoretical results and experimental data, except that the calculated yield of helium-3 in Pb+Pb collisions at √ s NN = 2.76 TeV underestimates the data by about a factor of 2. Possible reasons for these discrepancies are discussed. Here, we also make predictions on the spectra and elliptic flow of deuterons and helium-3 in Pb+Pb collisions at √ s NN = 5.02 TeV that are being studied at LHC.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

Rienecker, Michele↗

The effects of rotational flow, viscosity, thickness, and shape on transonic flutter dip phenomena

The transonic flutter dip phenomena on thin airfoils, which are employed for propfan blades, is investigated using an integrated Euler/Navier-Stokes code and a two degrees of freedom typical section structural model. As a part of the code validation, the flutter characteristics of the NACA 64A010 airfoil are also investigated. In addition, the effects of artificial dissipation models, rotational flow, initial conditions, mean angle of attack, viscosity, airfoil thickness and shape on flutter are investigated. The results obtained with a Euler code for the NACA 64A010 airfoil are in reasonable agreement with published results obtained by using transonic small disturbance and Euler codes. The two artificial dissipation models, one based on the local pressure gradient scaled by a common factor and the other based on the local pressure gradient scaled by a spectral radius, predicted the same flutter speeds except in the recovery region for the case studied. The effects of rotational flow, initial conditions, mean angle of attack, and viscosity for the Reynold's number studied seem to be negligible or small on the minima of the flutter dip.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

The effects of rotational flow, viscosity, thickness, and shape on transonic flutter dip phenomena

The transonic flutter dip phenomena on thin airfoils, which are employed for propfan blades, is investigated using an integrated Euler/Navier-Stokes code and a two degrees of freedom typical section structural model. As a part of the code validation, the flutter characteristics of the NACA 64A010 airfoil are also investigated. In addition, the effects of artificial dissipation models, rotational flow, initial conditions, mean angle of attack, viscosity, airfoil thickness, and shape on flutter are investigated. The results obtained with an Euler code for the NACA 64A010 airfoil are in reasonable agreement with published results obtained by using transonic small disturbance and Euler codes. The two artifical dissipation models, one based on the local pressure gradient scaled by a common factor and the other based on the local presure gradient scaled by a spectral radius, predicted the same flutter speeds except in the recovery region for the case studied. The effects of rotation flow, initial conditions, mean angle of attack, and viscosity for the Reynolds number studied seem to be negligible or small on the minima of the flutter dip.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

A nonsingular model of the open magnetosphere

We present a modified version of the Toffoletto and Hill (1989) open magnetosphere model that incorporates a tail-like interconection field with a discontinuity 10 represent the slow-mode expansion fan that defines the high-latitude tail magnetopause. (The interconnection field is defined as the perturbation on an initially closed magnetosphere model to make it open.) The expansion fan controls the open field line region in the tail, and the intersection of the fan with the tail current sheet is, by design, the x line. The new interconnection field allows greater control of the tail field structure; in particular, it enables us to eliminate the nightside mapping singularity that occurs in previous models when the interplanetary magnetic field is nonsouthward. Also, in contrast to earlier models, the far tail x line extends farther downstream on the flanks than in the center of the tail, consistent with observations.

Toffoletto, F. R.↗