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DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Analysis Approach for Estimating Regional Health Impacts from the 2017 Northern California Wildfires

In the evening of October 8 and early hours of October 9, 2017, high winds in Northern California downed trees and power lines, igniting some of the most devastating wildfires the state had seen, and within hours unhealthy air quality impacted millions of people. We simulated these air quality conditions using fire detection information from the MODIS, VIIRS, and GOES-16 ABI satellite instruments, and applying a set of three WRF–CMAQ simulations, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ air quality modeling system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve results compared to the baseline case, which used a default time profile. However, this approach was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. The WRF-CMAQ simulations compared well with observational data for the October 8-15 time period and tended to overestimate concentrations October 16-20. To improve these results, we applied three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across the WRF-CMAQ, data fusion, and machine learning datasets, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. The data fusion and machine learning results were biased low and WRF-CMAQ results were biased high. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in a short-term exposure-response function. Total estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to wildland fire smoke.

O'Neill, Susan↗

DOE OSTI2014

Initial Characterization of Embryonic Development in North American Burbot

Abstract Declining wild populations and increasing commercial interest are encouraging development of aquaculture methods for the North American Burbot Lota lota maculosa. A current focus of Burbot aquaculture research is reducing high mortality that is typically associated with culture of Burbot embryos and larvae. However, no Burbot embryonic or larval staging systems are currently available to provide a comparative baseline for studies of these life stages. To help address this gap, we examined Burbot embryonic development from egg fertilization until the onset of the larval period at first feeding. Ontogeny was characterized using diagnostic morphological features visible with stereo microscopy. Six developmental periods were characterized (cleavage, blastula, gastrula, segmentation, swim bladder inflation, and first feeding), along with 15 developmental stages. Water temperature ranged from 3°C to 5°C for the duration of this study. Cleavage cycles were approximately 8 h/division. Segmentation began at 12 d postfertilization (DPF) and continued until first hatch at 33 DPF. First feeding was observed at 45 DPF, 12 d after first hatch. Results presented here are expected to help refine Burbot culture methodology and research efforts aimed at conservation, management, and commercial production. Future research should use additional cohorts and expose embryos to a range of culture conditions to better understand the factors governing embryonic survival and variability in the timing of events during development.

Egan, Joshua P.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Pregnancy level of estradiol attenuated virus-specific humoral immune response in H5N1-infected female mice despite inducing anti-inflammatory protection

Estradiol, a major female steroid produced during pregnancy, has been reported to protect ovariectomized animals against H1N1 influenza infections via its anti-inflammatory effects. However, it remains unclear why pregnant women with high gestational estradiol levels are highly susceptible to influenza infections. This study was aimed to investigate the effects of pregnancy level of estradiol on female immunity against H5N1 infection in Balb/c mice. A sex-dependent susceptibility to H5N1 infection (higher morbidity and higher mortality) was observed in both pregnant and non-pregnant female mice as compared to male mice. Subcutaneous implantation of estradiol pellets increased serum estradiol concentrations of non-pregnant female mice to the pregnancy level. These mice were protected from H5N1 infection through downregulation of pulmonary pro-inflammatory cytokines. However, the production of virus-specific antibodies after infection was significantly delayed in estradiol-implanted mice when compared to placebos. Virus-specific IgG-secreting and IL-4-secreting cells were also reduced in estradiol-implanted mice. Similarly, lower antibody titers to seasonal vaccine antigens were found in pregnant women as compared to non-pregnant females without hormone usage. Our results indicate that estradiol levels equivalent to those found during pregnancy have divergent effects on female immunity against influenza, highlighting the importance of vaccination during pregnancy to prevent severe influenza infections.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2011

THE CLUSTER POPULATION OF THE IRREGULAR GALAXY NGC 4449 AS SEEN BY THE HUBBLE ADVANCED CAMERA FOR SURVEYS

We present a study of the star cluster population in the starburst irregular galaxy NGC 4449 based on B, V, I, and H{alpha} images taken with the Advanced Camera for Surveys on the Hubble Space Telescope. We derive cluster properties such as size, ellipticity, and total magnitude. Cluster ages and masses are derived fitting the observed spectral energy distributions with different population synthesis models. Our analysis is strongly affected by the age-metallicity degeneracy; however, if we assume a metallicity of {approx}1/4 solar, as derived from spectroscopy of H II regions, we find that the clusters have ages distributed quite continuously over a Hubble time, and they have masses from {approx}10{sup 3} M{sub sun} up to {approx}2 x 10{sup 6} M{sub sun}, assuming a Salpeter initial mass function down to 0.1 M{sub sun}. Young clusters are preferentially located in regions of young star formation (SF), while old clusters are distributed over the whole NGC 4449 field of view, like the old stars (although we note that some old clusters follow linear structures, possibly a reflection of past satellite accretion). The high SF activity in NGC 4449 is confirmed by its specific frequency of young massive clusters, higher than the average value found in nearby spirals and in the Large Magellanic Cloud (but lower than in other starburst dwarfs such as NGC 1705 and NGC 1569), and by the flat slope of the cluster luminosity function (dN(L{sub V} ){proportional_to}L{sup -1.5}{sub V} dL for clusters younger than 1 Gyr). We use the upper envelope of the cluster log(mass) versus log(age) distribution to quantify cluster disruption, and do not find evidence for the high (90%) long-term infant mortality found by some studies. For the red clusters, we find correlations between size, ellipticity, luminosity, and mass: brighter and more massive clusters tend to be more compact, and brighter clusters also tend to be more elliptical.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Cosmic logic: a computational model

We initiate a formal study of logical inferences in context of the measure problem in cosmology or what we call cosmic logic. We describe a simple computational model of cosmic logic suitable for analysis of, for example, discretized cosmological systems. The construction is based on a particular model of computation, developed by Alan Turing, with cosmic observers (CO), cosmic measures (CM) and cosmic symmetries (CS) described by Turing machines. CO machines always start with a blank tape and CM machines take CO's Turing number (also known as description number or Gödel number) as input and output the corresponding probability. Similarly, CS machines take CO's Turing number as input, but output either one if the CO machines are in the same equivalence class or zero otherwise. We argue that CS machines are more fundamental than CM machines and, thus, should be used as building blocks in constructing CM machines. We prove the non-computability of a CS machine which discriminates between two classes of CO machines: mortal that halts in finite time and immortal that runs forever. In context of eternal inflation this result implies that it is impossible to construct CM machines to compute probabilities on the set of all CO machines using cut-off prescriptions. The cut-off measures can still be used if the set is reduced to include only machines which halt after a finite and predetermined number of steps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Mean PB To Failure - Initial results from a long-term study of disk storage patterns at the RACF

The RACF (RHIC-ATLAS Computing Facility) has operated a large, multi-purpose dedicated computing facility since the mid-l 990's, serving a worldwide, geographically diverse scientific community that is a major contributor to various HEPN projects. A central component of the RACF is the Linux-based worker node cluster that is used for both computing and data storage purposes. It currently has nearly 50,000 computing cores and over 23 PB of storage capacity distributed over 12,000+ (non-SSD) disk drives. The majority of the 12,000+ disk drives provide a cost-effective solution for dCache/XRootD-managed storage, and a key concern is the reliability of this solution over the lifetime of the hardware, particularly as the number of disk drives and the storage capacity of individual drives grow. We report initial results of a long-term study to measure lifetime PB read/written to disk drives in the worker node cluster. We discuss the historical disk drive mortality rate, disk drive manufacturers' published MPTF (Mean PB to Failure) data and how they are correlated to our results. The results help the RACF understand the productivity and reliability of its storage solutions and have implications for other highly-available storage systems (NFS, GPFS, CVMFS, etc) with large I/0 requirements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

The recent International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) report identifies significant co-benefits from climate policies on near-term ambient air pollution and related human health outcomes [1]. This is increasingly relevant for policy making as the health impacts of air pollution are a major global concern- the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies outdoor air pollution as the sixth major cause of death globally [2]. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are an effective tool to evaluate future air pollution outcomes across a wide range of assumptions on socio-economic development and policy regimes. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [3] were the first set of long-term global scenarios developed across multiple integrated assessment models that provided detailed estimates of a number of air pollutants until 2100. However these scenarios were primarily designed to cover a defined range of radiative forcing outcomes and thus did not specifically focus on the interactions of long-term climate goals on near-term air pollution impacts. More recently, [4] used the RCP4.5 scenario to evaluate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health in 2030. [5-7] have further examined the interactions of more diverse pollution control regimes with climate policies. This paper extends the listed studies in a number of ways. Firstly it uses multiple IAMs to look into the co-benefits of a global climate policy for ambient air pollution under harmonized assumptions on near-term air pollution control. Multi-model frameworks have been extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation pathways, and the structural uncertainties regarding the underlying mechanisms (see for example [8-10]. This is to our knowledge the first time that a multi-model evaluation has been specifically designed and applied to analyze the co-benefits of climate change policy on ambient air quality, thus enabling a better understanding of at a detailed sector and region level. A second methodological advancement is a quantification of the co-benefits in terms of the associated atmospheric concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and consequent mortality related outcomes across different models. This is made possible by the use of state-of the art simplified atmospheric model that allows for the first time a computationally feasible multi-model evaluation of such outcomes.

Rao, Shilpa↗

DOE OSTI2017

Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050

Policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can bring ancillary benefits of improved air quality and reduced premature mortality, in addition to slowing climate change. Here we study the co-benefits of global and domestic GHG mitigation on US air quality and human health in 2050 at fine resolution using dynamical downscaling, and quantify for the first time the co-benefits from foreign GHG mitigation. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG reductions in RCP4.5 avoid 16000 PM2.5-related all-cause deaths yr-1 (90% confidence interval, 11700-20300), and 8000 (3600-12400) O3-related respiratory deaths yr-1 in the US in 2050. Foreign GHG mitigation avoids 15% and 62% of PM2.5- and O3-related total avoided deaths, highlighting the importance of foreign GHG mitigation on US human health benefits. GHG mitigation in the US residential sector brings the largest co-benefits for PM2.5-related deaths (21% of total domestic co-benefits), and industry for O3 (17%). Monetized benefits, for avoided deaths from ozone, PM2.5, and heat stress from a related study, are $148 ($96-201) per ton CO2 at high valuation and $49 ($32-67) at low valuation, of which 36% are from foreign GHG reductions. These benefits likely exceed the marginal cost of GHG reductions in 2050. The US gains significantly greater co-benefits when coordinating GHG reductions with foreign countries. Similarly, previous studies estimating co-benefits locally or regionally may greatly underestimate the full co-benefits of coordinated global actions.

Zhang, Yuqiang (ORCID:0000000291617086)↗

DOE OSTI2018

Differential ecophysiological responses and resilience to heat wave events in four co-occurring temperate tree species

Extreme summer heat waves are known to induce foliar and stem mortality in temperate forest ecosystems, yet our mechanistic knowledge of physiological thresholds for damage is lacking. Current spatiotemporal simulations of forest growth responses to climate change fail to explain the variability between co-occurring tree species to climate extremes, indicating a need for new model frameworks that include mechanistic understanding of trait-specific responses. In this context, using manipulative heat wave ( hw ) experiments we investigated ecophysiological responses and physiological recovery in four co-occurring temperate tree species of the southeastern United States including three deciduous angiosperms: southern red oak ( Quercus falcata Michx.), shumard oak ( Q. shumardii Buckl.) and, tulip-poplar ( Liriodendron tulipifera L.) and one evergreen conifer: eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus L.). The objectives were to investigate inter-specific differences in ecophysiological responses to hw events to understand mechanistic differences in resilience that may be useful for future model development. Two-year-old, well-irrigated potted saplings were exposed to progressively increasing extreme hw diurnal cycles followed by a recovery cycle, with peak midday air temperature increasing from 37 °C to a maximum of 51 °C on the third day of the hw . Plants were assessed for various photosynthetic and water use responses, chlorophyll fluorescence and photosystem-II (PSII) activity, leaf temperature and foliar pigments. Intense heat caused progressive down-regulation in net photosynthesis, but the stomata remained operational, which helped cool leaves through loss of latent heat. Even though whole plant transpiration increased for all species, the rate plateaued at higher hw events that allowed leaf temperature to exceed 45 °C, well beyond the optimal range. A significant increase in non-photochemical quenching over the hw cycles was evident in all species though indications of both transient and chronic PSII damage were evident in the most heat sensitive species, pine and tulip poplar. The oaks, especially Q. falcata , showed greater thermotolerance than other species with a higher threshold for photodamage to PSII, rapid overnight recovery of photoinhibition and minimal heat-induced canopy necrosis. We conclude that these co-occurring tree species exhibit large variability in thermotolerance and in their capability to repair both transient and chronic photodamage. Lastly, our results indicate that extreme heat induced damage to PSII within the leaf chloroplasts may be a mechanistic trait that can be used to project how different species respond to extreme weather events.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Co-benefits of China’s climate policy for air quality and human health in China and transboundary regions in 2030

Abstract Climate policies targeting CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels can simultaneously reduce emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, thus mitigating air pollution and associated health impacts. Previous work has examined co-benefits of climate policy from reducing PM 2.5 in rapidly-developing countries such as China, but have not examined co-benefits from ozone and its transboundary impact for both PM 2.5 and ozone. Here, we compare the air quality and health co-benefits of China’s climate policy on both PM 2.5 and ozone in China to their co-benefits in three downwind and populous countries (South Korea, Japan and the United States) using a coupled modeling framework. In a policy scenario consistent with China’s pledge to peak CO 2 emissions in approximately 2030, avoided premature deaths from ozone reductions are 54 300 (95% confidence interval: 37 100–71 000) in China in 2030, nearly 60% of those from PM 2.5 . Total avoided premature deaths in South Korea, Japan, and the US are 1200 (900–1600), 3500 (2800–4300), and 1900 (1400–2500), respectively. Total avoided deaths in South Korea and Japan are dominated by reductions in PM 2.5 -related mortality, but ozone plays a more important role in the US. Similar to co-benefits for PM 2.5 in China, co-benefits of China’s policy for ozone and for both pollutants in those downwind countries also rise with increasing policy stringency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Integrated policy assessment and optimisation over multiple sustainable development goals in Eastern Africa

Heavy reliance on traditional biomass for household energy in eastern Africa has significant negative health and environmental impacts. The African context for energy access is rather different from historical experiences elsewhere as challenges in achieving energy access have coincided with major climate ambitions. Policies focusing on household energy needs in eastern Africa contribute to at least three Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Climate Action, Good Health, and Improved Energy Access. This study uses an integrated assessment model to simulate the impact of land policies and technology subsidies, as well as the interaction of both, on Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exposure to air pollution and energy access in eastern Africa under a range of socioeconomic pathways. We find that land policies focusing on increasing the sustainable output of biomass resources can reduce GHG emissions in the region by about 10%, but also slightly delay progress in health and energy access goals. An optimised portfolio of energy technology subsidies of 11 to 14 dollars per capita up to 2030 can yield another 10% savings in GHG emissions, as well as 20% lower mortality related to air pollution, while improving energy access by up to 15%. After 2030, both land and technology subsidy policies become less cost-effective, and more dependent on the overall development path of the region. The analysis shows that subsidies for biogas technology should be prioritised in both the short and long term, while the distribution of a potential subsidy budget over LPG (health and energy access), PV (energy access), ethanol (climate and health) and charcoal (climate; if linked to land policies) pathways would depend on the most relevant sustainable development goal from the perspective of local policymakers or international organisations such as the Green Climate Fund. We suggest that integrated policy analysis is needed in the African context for simultaneously reaching progress in multiple SDGs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermal extremes in regulated river systems under climate change: an application to the southeastern U.S. rivers

High river temperatures, or “thermal extremes”, can cause fish mortality and thermoelectric powerplant derating. Under climate change, projected higher air temperature and stronger surface energy fluxes will lead to increased water temperatures, exacerbating thermal extremes. However, cold hypolimnetic releases from thermally stratified reservoirs can depress tailwater temperatures and therefore alleviate thermal extremes. Thermal extremes are more harmful when they coincide with low flows, which we refer to as “hydrologic hot-dry events”. To assess multisectoral impacts of climate change over large regions, we evaluate thermal events according to three impact attributes: duration (D), intensity (I), and severity (S). We apply an established model framework to simulate streamflow and stream temperature over the southeastern US regulated river system. We quantify climate change impacts (by the 2080s under RCP8.5) by comparing historical and future periods and quantify regulation impacts by comparing unregulated and regulated scenarios. We find that climate change will exacerbate thermal extremes (all three metrics) in both unregulated and regulated scenarios, albeit less in the regulated scenario. Thermal mitigation from reservoir regulation will be stronger under climate change, decreasing the three metrics compared to the unregulated case. Even so, thermal extremes in the regulated scenario will still be more severe under climate change, and only 12.2%, 19.7%, and 26.0% of D, I, and S can be mitigated by reservoirs. Despite stronger reservoir stratification, the number of regulated river segments that experience simultaneous high temperature and low flow events (hydrologic hot-dry events) will increase by 21.4% by the 2080s under RCP8.5. These events will have a median annual duration of 10.3 days/year, over 10 times the historical value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evidence for multi-decadal fuel buildup in a large California wildfire from smoke radiocarbon measurements

In recent decades, there has been a significant increase in annual area burned in California's Sierra Nevada mountains. This rise in fire activity has prompted the need to understand how historical forest management practices affect fuel composition and emissions. Here we examined the total carbon (TC) concentration and radiocarbon abundance (Δ 14 C) of particulate matter (PM) emitted by the KNP Complex Fire, which occurred during California's 2021 wildfire season and affected several groves of giant sequoia trees in the southern Sierra Nevada. During a 26 h sampling period, we measured concentrations of fine airborne PM (PM 2.5 ), as well as dry air mole fractions of carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH 4 ), using a ground-based mobile laboratory. We also collected filter samples of PM 2.5 for analysis of TC concentration and Δ 14 C. High correlation among PM 2.5 , CO, and CH 4 time series confirmed that our PM 2.5 measurements captured variability in wildfire emissions. Using a Keeling plot approach, we determined that the mean Δ 14 C of PM 2.5 was 111.6 ± 7.7‰ (n = 12), which was considerably enriched relative to atmospheric carbon dioxide in the northern hemisphere in 2021 (-3.2 ± 1.4‰). Combining these Δ 14 C data with a steady-state one-box ecosystem model, we estimated that the mean age of fuels combusted in the KNP Complex Fire was 40 years, with a range of 29–57 years. These results provide evidence for emissions originating from woody biomass, larger-diameter fine fuels, and coarse woody debris that have accumulated over multiple decades. This is consistent with independent field observations that indicate high fire intensity contributed to widespread giant sequoia mortality. With the expanded use of prescribed fires planned over the next decade in California to mitigate wildfire impacts, our measurement approach has the potential to provide regionally-integrated estimates of the effectiveness of fuel treatment programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Long-term patterns of post-fire harvest diverge among ownerships in the Pacific West, U.S.A.

Abstract Post-fire harvest (PFH) is a forest management practice designed to salvage value from burned timber, mitigate safety hazards from dead trees, reduce long-term fuels, and prepare sites for replanting. Despite public controversy and extensive ecological research, little is known about how much PFH occurs on private and public lands in the U.S. Pacific West, or how practices changed with shifting forest policy and increasing area burned over the last three decades. We mapped PFH across 2.2M burned hectares in California, Oregon, and Washington between 1986-2017 and used time series intervention analysis to compare trends in area, rate (% of burned area harvested), and mean patch size between private (0.5M ha) and federal (1.6M ha) forest land and across a gradient of burn severity. Harvest rates varied by ownership (4.9% federal, 18.6% private, 8.0% overall), and practices evolved and diverged over the study period. PFH area and rate declined across all ownerships in the mid-1990s during a period of reduced fire activity. As area burned increased between the early 2000s and late 2010s, PFH area rebounded and surpassed late-1980s levels, while rates remained relatively low. On federal lands, PFH practices shifted in the early-to-mid 1990s towards lower rates (10.3% to 3.8%) and smaller patches (6.0 to 3.3 ha), following policy changes and increased litigation. PFH rates on federal lands decreased at all levels of burn severity, with the largest decreases (6.2% to 1.2%) in forests with low tree mortality (i.e. fire refugia). Conversely, private PFH rates and mean patch sizes more than doubled in forests burned at very low-to-moderate severity. Our results highlight how PFH practices have shifted with policy, socio-economic pressure, and increasing area burned over 31 years in the Pacific West. A similar area of post-fire harvest is now dispersed over larger fires, with practices diverging substantially between ownerships.

Zuspan, Aaron (ORCID:0000000315833710)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable forest management for carbon, wood and biodiversity must consider natural disturbance regimes

Abstract Forests provide multiple benefits that include sequestering carbon, supporting biodiversity, and providing wood products. Managing temperate forests to achieve these benefits sustainably is challenging given the legacy of past human impacts, the complexity of forest development, and increasing but unpredictable disturbances. These intricacies prompted debate about the most effective management of temperate forests to achieve climate mitigation while sustaining forest productivity, regeneration, and diversity. Most research focused on management impacts under relatively stable environmental conditions, whereas forests are facing increasingly frequent and more severe climatic and biotic disturbances. Here, we used a regionally calibrated forest growth model to simulate the effects of forest management on carbon, biodiversity, and wood production under prevalent natural disturbances in the northeastern US. We developed scenarios combining forest management and disturbance regimes based on assumptions of species-specific tree regeneration and mortality rates. We compared passive management with no cutting that prioritizes maintaining existing forest trees with two common regional harvest practices: exploitative timber harvest that prioritizes short-term wood production and regenerative timber harvest that prioritizes regenerating biodiverse native forest tree seedlings. In the absence of natural disturbance, no cutting provides 41% higher forest carbon storage and 50% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than exploitative or regenerative practices. The presence of drought, windstorm, pest, and disease disturbances altered these outcomes. Regenerative forest management provides 25% higher forest carbon storage and 26% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than no cutting. Our results demonstrate that wood products and their carbon storage and fossil emission avoidance are important for determining the total climate benefits of forest management under natural disturbances. Our findings highlight that natural disturbance regimes should be considered when selecting management to promote multiple forest benefits, suggesting the need for tailored as opposed to one-size-fits-all policies to sustainably manage temperate forests worldwide.

Liu, Weier (ORCID:0000000265914239)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal stress in degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation

Understanding thermal stress in tropical forests has taken on new urgency in light of accelerating climate change and expansion of deforestation and forest degradation. Degraded tropical forests in particular may be approaching critical temperature thresholds even more rapidly than intact forests, with implications for tree survival and ecosystem recovery. We investigate thermal stress in degraded tropical forests within the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation. Using land surface temperature data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the international Space Station (ECOSTRESS), we compared canopy temperatures of intact, selectively logged, and burned forests in Feliz Natal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Upper canopy temperatures in previously burned forests were 4.1% higher (mean = 36.5 °C) and 50.9% more variable compared to intact and logged forests, which showed remarkably similar temperature distributions (means of 34.9 °C and 35.1 °C, respectively). Modeled leaf temperature distributions based on canopy temperature measurements from one of the warmest days in a 2 year dry season record indicated that 87% of leaves in the warmest burned forest patches exceeded the temperature threshold where respiration surpasses photosynthesis, compared to approximately 72%–74% in intact and logged forests, respectively, in the same time period. After controlling for environmental factors, burned forests were predicted to be 2.6 °C warmer on average [1.39 °C–3.96 °C, 95% credible interval] than intact forests across a 5–40 m canopy height range. Burned forests showed modest thermal recovery over time, with temperatures decreasing by approximately 1.2 °C over a 30 year recovery period. In contrast, logged forests showed minimal thermal differences from intact forests (−0.353 on average, [−1.125–0.274, 95% credible interval]) and negligible change (0.15 °C) over the same timeframe. While the absolute probabilities of exceeding damaging thermal thresholds remain low across all forest types under current climate conditions, the probability of leaves exceeding temperatures that cause permanent leaf damage was ten times higher in burned forests, with implications for the future of burned forest regeneration in water-limited regions of the Amazon basin. In particular, the combination of higher mean temperatures, greater temperature variability, and more frequent exposure to damaging thermal thresholds implies that burned tropical forests will experience substantially higher mortality rates and slower biomass recovery compared to intact and selectively logged forests, especially in water-limited regions where trees cannot rely on evaporative cooling to moderate canopy temperatures.

Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost

Permafrost peatlands store vast amounts of frozen carbon across northern landscapes. When ground ice melts, surface subsidence produces thermokarst landforms that expand wetlands at the edges of permafrost plateaus. Thermokarst represents an accelerating climate feedback, but uncertainties remain about how ground ice, hydrology, and vegetation interact to shape landscape change and carbon fluxes. We extended the process-based model ecosys to simulate thermokarst dynamics in laterally coupled 2D transects at a well-characterized boreal peatland site in Canada’s Northwest Territories. After benchmarking against site observations, we varied ground ice content and hydrologic boundary conditions across ranges typical near the southern permafrost limit. Simulations revealed distinct degradation regimes governed by the elevation difference between the frost table and the external water table. Rates of lateral retreat, the thaw-driven encroachment of wetlands into adjacent plateaus, ranged from 0 to >2 m yr −1 under identical weather forcing, consistent with observations and highlighting the strong role of WT and ground ice. Simulated vegetation dynamics indicate that black spruce mortality cannot be explained by anoxia alone, pointing to additional stressors such as root damage, pathogens, or physical destabilization. Despite large hydrologic shifts, net ecosystem CO 2 exchange remained a slight sink after collapse, while methane (CH 4 ) emissions rose by one to two orders of magnitude. As a result, lateral retreat substantially increases the greenhouse warming potential of permafrost peatlands (1.7 million km 2 in area), with simulated emissions of 0.1–10 Mt CO 2 -eq decade −1 depending on hydrology and retreat rates. These results underscore the need to account for both ground ice and hydrologic dynamics when assessing thermokarst-driven climate feedbacks.

carbon cycling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Fish-Related Properties of Kaplan Turbines at the Design Phase: Simulation-based outcomes vs. Experimental Data

The development of turbine technology faces growing demands to maximize the survival of migratory fish passing through turbine flows. In this context, two strategies have emerged for quantifying hazardous hydraulic conditions: computer-based evaluations at design stage and recordings with autonomous sensors deployed in prototypes. The former is a desktop evaluation with many modelling assumptions (idealization) and the latter is a field technique that introduces various unknown and uncontrollable factors (uncertainty.) The present work introduces and implements a third method based on test rig measurements and the corresponding computer-based predictions of conditions that negatively affect fish survivability. The experimental work was conducted in a five-bladed Kaplan turbine model in which miniaturized autonomous sensors (SF Mini, developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, U.S.) measured fish-relevant hydraulic features. The modelling work involved flow simulations according to industry practices and the representation of fish trajectories through the simulated flow conditions. We compared both the experimental measurements and CFD outcomes and discussed the challenges and advantages of the modelling strategies, as well as the benefits for turbine engineers in need of incorporating effective design concepts to mitigate fish mortality through turbines.

Romero-Gomez, Pedro↗