Electric sector impacts of renewable policy coordination: A multi-model study of the North American energy system
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Bistline, John E. T.↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “MODELING”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Bayesian optimization for inverse calibration of expensive computer models: A case study for Johnson-Cook model in machining
Inverse model calibration for identifying the constitutive model parameters can be computationally demanding for expensive-to-evaluate simulation models. Here, this paper presents a modified Bayesian optimization (BO) method, denoted as BO-bound, that incorporates theoretical bounds on the quantity of interest. A case study for the inverse calibration of the Johnson Cook (J-C) flow stress model parameters is presented using machining (cutting) force data. The results show fast calibration of the five J-C parameters within 25 simulations. In general, the BO-bound method is applicable for inverse calibration of any expensive simulation models as well as optimization problems with known bounds.
Bayesian optimization↗
Modeling the Effects of Artificial Drainage on Agriculture-Dominated Watersheds Using a Fully Distributed Integrated Hydrology Model
In agriculture-dominated watersheds where natural drainage is poor, agricultural ditches (narrow engineered channels) and tile drains (perforated pipes) are widely employed to enhance surface and subsurface drainage, respectively. Despite their relatively small scale, these features exert substantial control over the hydro-biogeochemical function of watersheds and their effects need to be represented in the models. We introduce a novel strategy to incorporate the effects of artificial agricultural drainage into a fully distributed basin-scale integrated surface-subsurface hydrology models. In our approach, narrow agriculture ditches for surface drainage are resolved efficiently using ditch-aligned computational meshes that are hydrologically conditioned to ensure connectivity in the stream/ditch network. For tile drainage in the subsurface, we use the physically based Hooghoudt's drainage equation as a subgrid model and route the water drained through tiles to the nearest ditch. Without site-specific calibration, this model reproduced observed streamflow in the Portage River Watershed (>1,000 km 2 ) as recorded by a USGS gauge with good accuracy (normalized KGE = 0.81) and outperformed a calibrated SWAT model (normalized KGE = 0.68). Numerical experiments confirm that artificial drainage reduces surface inundations and effectively controls the water table. At the watershed scale, artificial drainage increases baseflow but has little effect on watershed discharges above the 90th percentile. The strong physical underpinnings and reduced need for calibration allow us to study the impacts of artificial drainage on distributed hydrological response in terms of fluxes and states and provide a platform for investigating watershed-scale nutrient transport.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Data-based filtered dissipation rate modelling for multi-modal turbulent combustion: evaluating a priori model generalizability
Manifold-based models offer a computationally efficient alternative to directly transporting the thermochemical state in computational simulations of turbulent reacting flows, projecting the high-dimensional thermochemical state-space onto a low-dimensional manifold. Recent efforts have yielded a manifold-based model applicable to multi-modal combustion, enabling reconstruction of the thermochemical state from solutions to two-dimensional manifold equations in mixture fraction and generalized progress variable that are parameterised by three scalar dissipation rates. In coarse-grained simulations such as Large Eddy Simulation (LES), closure of the multi-modal manifold equations and subfilter variances/covariance requires closure of three filtered scalar dissipation rates. Here, the present work adopts a data-based approach, providing closure for the three filtered scalar dissipation rates via deep neural networks (DNNs). High-fidelity datasets corresponding to an autoigniting n-dodecane jet flame and a bluff body swirl-stabilized confined lifted spray flame of two aviation fuels (Jet-A and C1) with different ignition propensities are leveraged to generate training data that spans a diverse range of thermodynamic conditions and combustion modes, including low- and high-temperature ignition regimes in addition to premixed and nonpremixed behaviour. A final DNN model is trained to enforce inherent physical constraints by learning nonlinear functional transformations of the three filtered scalar dissipation rates. The generalizability of this constrained DNN model is demonstrated a priori via conditional statistics evaluated on the lifted spray flame with C1–a configuration that had not been included in the training data. Excellent DNN agreement with conditional DNS statistics is observed, and integrated gradients are computed to identify the most sensitive input variables. The similarity of the marginal PDFs of the most informative input variables and outputs across configurations are quantified via the Wasserstein metric, demonstrating that data-based models may successfully generalize to unseen parametric conditions so long as the most informative input variables share similar distributions across training and testing datasets.
Data-based modelling↗
Surrogate modelling for urban building energy simulation based on the bidirectional long short-term memory model
Here, the urban microclimate is essential for accurate simulation-based urban building energy modelling (UBEM). However, a high spatial-resolution microclimate can increase the computational resources demands of UBEM. Surrogate modelling is one of the promising approaches for fast UBEM. This study proposes a bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based approach for simulation-based UBEM surrogate modelling. The estimations are aggregated into census tracts using total building floor area. A case study using UBEM to estimate annual hourly building energy use and anthropogenic heat from all existing buildings in Los Angeles County found that most of the surrogate models can complete the annual hourly simulation within 90 minutes with a normalized mean absolute error lower than 10%, and that the bidirectional LSTM outperforms the standard LSTM in accuracy. This study demonstrates the advantages of bidirectional RNN architecture in building energy surrogate modelling and is expected to promote long-term and high-resolution UBEM with detailed microclimates.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Atmospheric dispersion modeling: Challenges of the Fukushima Daiichi response
In this research, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) provided a wide range of predictions and analyses as part of the response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident including: daily Japanese weather forecasts and atmospheric transport predictions to inform planning for field monitoring operations and to provide U.S. government agencies with ongoing situational awareness of meteorological conditions; estimates of possible dose in Japan based on hypothetical U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission scenarios of potential radionuclide releases to support protective action planning for U.S. citizens; predictions of possible plume arrival times and dose levels at U.S. locations; and source estimation and plume model refinement based on atmospheric dispersion modeling and available monitoring data.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) Model: A Geospatial Platform for Technical Potential and Supply Curve Modeling
The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a platform for detailed assessment of renewable energy (RE) resources and their geospatial intersection with grid infrastructure and land use characteristics. The reV model currently supports photovoltaic (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and land-based wind turbine technologies. Modules in the reV framework function at different spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing for assessment of resource potential, technical potential and supply curves at varying levels of detail. The platform runs on NREL's High Performance Computing system, providing scalable and efficient performance from a single location all the way up to continental scales, for a single year or decades of time series resource data. Coupled with NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM), reV supports resource assessment from 5-minute to hourly temporal resolution and provides for analysis of long-term (i.e., year-on-year) variability of RE generation (e.g., interannual variability and exceedance probabilities). Technical potential is measured as a function of resource potential and limitations put on developable land area defined by the user. For example, the user can limit development by land ownership, terrain, land use/cover, and urban areas, as well as custom inputs. Technology, grid interconnection and operation costs, based on the latest market data and future projections, are also embedded in the model. The supply curve module is a spatial sorting algorithm based on plant siting, grid interconnection cost, and regional competition, which provides a geographically discrete estimate of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and supply (i.e., capacity) for specific renewable technologies. The reV model currently provides broad coverage across North America, South and Central Asia, South America and South Africa to inform national- and international-scale analyses as well as regional infrastructure and deployment planning.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Parameters Using Surface Flux and Runoff Observations in the Community Land Model
This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Two inversion strategies, the deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) - Bayesian inversion approaches, are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the least-square fitting provides little improvements in the model simulations but the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches are consistent - as more information comes in, the predictive intervals of the calibrated parameters become narrower and the misfits between the calculated and observed responses decrease. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to the different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.
inverse, modeling, hydrologic, parameters, flux, r↗
Combined Modeling of Acceleration, Transport, and Hydrodynamic Response in Solar Flares: The Numerical Model - 1
Acceleration and transport of high-energy particles and fluid dynamics of atmospheric plasma are interrelated aspects of solar flares, but for convenience and simplicity they were artificially separated in the past. We present here self consistently combined Fokker-Planck modeling of particles and hydrodynamic simulation of flare plasma. Energetic electrons are modeled with the Stanford unified code of acceleration, transport, and radiation, while plasma is modeled with the Naval Research Laboratory flux tube code. We calculated the collisional heating rate directly from the particle transport code, which is more accurate than those in previous studies based on approximate analytical solutions. We repeated the simulation of Mariska et al. with an injection of power law, downward-beamed electrons using the new heating rate. For this case, a -10% difference was found from their old result. We also used a more realistic spectrum of injected electrons provided by the stochastic acceleration model, which has a smooth transition from a quasi-thermal background at low energies to a non thermal tail at high energies. The inclusion of low-energy electrons results in relatively more heating in the corona (versus chromosphere) and thus a larger downward heat conduction flux. The interplay of electron heating, conduction, and radiative loss leads to stronger chromospheric evaporation than obtained in previous studies, which had a deficit in low-energy electrons due to an arbitrarily assumed low-energy cutoff. The energy and spatial distributions of energetic electrons and bremsstrahlung photons bear signatures of the changing density distribution caused by chromospheric evaporation. In particular, the density jump at the evaporation front gives rise to enhanced emission, which, in principle, can be imaged by X-ray telescopes. This model can be applied to investigate a variety of high-energy processes in solar, space, and astrophysical plasmas.
STOCHASTIC ACCELERATION MODEL↗
Fractional Order Modeling of Atmospheric Turbulence - A More Accurate Modeling Methodology for Aero Vehicles
The presentation covers a recently developed methodology to model atmospheric turbulence as disturbances for aero vehicle gust loads and for controls development like flutter and inlet shock position. The approach models atmospheric turbulence in their natural fractional order form, which provides for more accuracy compared to traditional methods like the Dryden model, especially for high speed vehicle. The presentation provides a historical background on atmospheric turbulence modeling and the approaches utilized for air vehicles. This is followed by the motivation and the methodology utilized to develop the atmospheric turbulence fractional order modeling approach. Some examples covering the application of this method are also provided, followed by concluding remarks.
Atmospheric Turbulence Modeling↗
Using SpaceClaimTD Direct for Modeling Components with Complex Geometries for the Thermal Desktop-Based Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Model
SpaceClaim/TD Direct has been used extensively in the development of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) thermal model. This paper outlines the workflow for that aspect of the task and includes proposed best practices and lessons learned. The ASRG thermal model was developed to predict component temperatures and power output and to provide insight into the prime contractor's thermal modeling efforts. The insulation blocks, heat collectors, and cold side adapter flanges (CSAFs) were modeled with this approach. The model was constructed using mostly TD finite difference (FD) surfaces/solids. However, some complex geometry could not be reproduced with TD primitives while maintaining the desired degree of geometric fidelity. Using SpaceClaim permitted the import of original CAD files and enabled the defeaturing/repair of those geometries. TD Direct (a SpaceClaim add-on from CRTech) adds features that allowed the "mark-up" of that geometry. These so-called "mark-ups" control how finite element (FE) meshes are to be generated through the "tagging" of features (e.g. edges, solids, surfaces). These tags represent parameters that include: submodels, material properties, material orienters, optical properties, and radiation analysis groups. TD aliases were used for most tags to allow analysis to be performed with a variety of parameter values. "Domain-tags" were also attached to individual and groups of surfaces and solids to allow them to be used later within TD to populate objects like, for example, heaters and contactors. These tools allow the user to make changes to the geometry in SpaceClaim and then easily synchronize the mesh in TD without having to redefine the objects each time as one would if using TDMesher. The use of SpaceClaim/TD Direct helps simplify the process for importing existing geometries and in the creation of high fidelity FE meshes to represent complex parts. It also saves time and effort in the subsequent analysis.
Power Systems↗
Using SpaceClaim/TD Direct for Modeling Components with Complex Geometries for the Thermal Desktop-Based Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Model
SpaceClaim/TD Direct has been used extensively in the development of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) thermal model. This paper outlines the workflow for that aspect of the task and includes proposed best practices and lessons learned. The ASRG thermal model was developed to predict component temperatures and power output and to provide insight into the prime contractors thermal modeling efforts. The insulation blocks, heat collectors, and cold side adapter flanges (CSAFs) were modeled with this approach. The model was constructed using mostly TD finite difference (FD) surfaces solids. However, some complex geometry could not be reproduced with TD primitives while maintaining the desired degree of geometric fidelity. Using SpaceClaim permitted the import of original CAD files and enabled the defeaturing repair of those geometries. TD Direct (a SpaceClaim add-on from CRTech) adds features that allowed the mark-up of that geometry. These so-called mark-ups control how finite element (FE) meshes were generated and allowed the tagging of features (e.g. edges, solids, surfaces). These tags represent parameters that include: submodels, material properties, material orienters, optical properties, and radiation analysis groups. TD aliases were used for most tags to allow analysis to be performed with a variety of parameter values. Domain-tags were also attached to individual and groups of surfaces and solids to allow them to be used later within TD to populate objects like, for example, heaters and contactors. These tools allow the user to make changes to the geometry in SpaceClaim and then easily synchronize the mesh in TD without having to redefine these objects each time as one would if using TD Mesher.The use of SpaceClaim/TD Direct has helped simplify the process for importing existing geometries and in the creation of high fidelity FE meshes to represent complex parts. It has also saved time and effort in the subsequent analysis.
Power Systems↗
Hacking Kilometer-Scale Models: A Participative Model for Climate Information
In May 2025, nearly 700 participants from all around the world coalesced at 10 regional nodes and a few satellite nodes to take part in a global hackathon of kilometer-scale (horizontal grid spacing < 10 km) regional and global Earth system models. Exciting science is emerging from these efforts, ranging across novel model analysis, new ways of integrating with satellite data, and emulation with machine learning. New technologies were trialed that enable the community to work in new and complementary ways to democratize access to global information at a local scale from a set of the world’s highest-resolution climate models. The hackathon demonstrated how exascale data can be organized to be accessible to anyone. Fundamentally, the community could apply these techniques and technologies to move toward more participative models for coproduction and delivery of diverse sources of climate information for climate scientists and citizens alike.
Climate models↗
Physics-Dynamics Coupling in Weather, Climate, and Earth System Models: Challenges and Recent Progress
Geophysical models of the atmosphere and ocean invariably involve parameterizations. These represent two distinct areas: a) Subgrid processes which the model cannot (yet) resolve, due to its discrete resolution, and b) sources in the equation, due to radiation for example. Hence coupling between these physics parameterizations and the resolved fluid dynamics and also between the dynamics of the different fluids in the system (air and water) is necessary. This coupling is an important aspect of geophysical models. However, often model development is strictly segregated into either physics or dynamics. Hence, this area has many more unanswered questions than in-depth understanding. Furthermore, recent developments in the design of dynamical cores (significant increase of resolution, move to non-hydrostatic equation sets etc), extended process physics (prognostic micro physics, 3D turbulence, non-vertical radiation etc) and predicted future changes of the computational infrastructure (Exascale with its need for task parallelism, data locality and asynchronous time stepping for example) is adding even more complexity and new questions.
Gross, Markus↗
Evaluation of Cloud-resolving and Limited Area Model Intercomparison Simulations using TWP-ICE Observations. Part 1: Deep Convective Updraft Properties
Ten 3D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations and four 3D limited area model (LAM) simulations of an intense mesoscale convective system observed on January 23-24, 2006 during the Tropical Warm Pool – International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) are compared with each other and with observed radar reflectivity fields and dual-Doppler retrievals of vertical wind speeds in an attempt to explain published results showing a high bias in simulated convective radar reflectivity aloft. This high bias results from ice water content being large, which is a product of large, strong convective updrafts, although hydrometeor size distribution assumptions modulate the size of this bias. Snow reflectivity can exceed 40 dBZ in a two-moment scheme when a constant bulk density of 100 kg m-3 is used. Making snow mass more realistically proportional to area rather than volume should somewhat alleviate this problem. Graupel, unlike snow, produces high biased reflectivity in all simulations. This is associated with large amounts of liquid water above the freezing level in updraft cores. Peak vertical velocities in deep convective updrafts are greater than dual-Doppler retrieved values, especially in the upper troposphere. Freezing of large rainwater contents lofted above the freezing level in simulated updraft cores greatly contributes to these excessive upper tropospheric vertical velocities. Strong simulated updraft cores are nearly undiluted, with some showing supercell characteristics. Decreasing horizontal grid spacing from 900 meters to 100 meters weakens strong updrafts, but not enough to match observational retrievals. Therefore, overly intense simulated updrafts may partly be a product of interactions between convective dynamics, parameterized microphysics, and large-scale environmental biases that promote different convective modes and strengths than observed.
clould-resolving↗
Modeling Global Soil Carbon and Soil Microbial Carbon by Integrating Microbial Processes into the Ecosystem Process Model TRIPLEX-GHG
Microbial physiology plays a critical role in the biogeochemical cycles of the Earth system. However, most traditional soil carbon models are lacking in terms of the representation of key microbial processes that control the soil carbon response to global climate change. In this study, the improved process-based model TRIPLEX-GHG was developed by coupling it with the new MEND (Microbial-ENzyme-mediated Decomposition) model to estimate total global soil organic carbon (SOC) and global soil microbial carbon. The new model (TRIPLEX-MICROBE) shows considerable improvement over the previous version (TRIPLEX-GHG) in simulating SOC. We estimated the global soil carbon stock to be approximately 1195 Pg C, with 348 Pg C located in the high northern latitudes, which is in good agreement with the well-regarded Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD). We also estimated the global soil microbial carbon to be 21 Pg C, similar to the 23 Pg C estimated. We found that the microbial carbon quantity in the latitudinal direction showed reversions at approximately 30°N, near the equator and at 25°S. A sensitivity analysis suggested that the tundra ecosystem exhibited the highest sensitivity to a 1°C increase or decrease in temperature in terms of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MOC). Furthermore, our work represents the first step towards a new generation of ecosystem process models capable of integrating key microbial processes into soil carbon cycles.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Uncertainty quantification of property models: Methodology and its application to CO 2 -loaded aqueous MEA solutions
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CO2 capture↗