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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Interconnection and Renewables Deployment Related Air Quality and Human Health Benefits in Southeast Asia

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has increasingly focused on multilateral electricity trade, improved grid resiliency and modernization. These opportunities in the power sector have been studied through the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Studies, the most recent of which is the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III). AIMS III assessed four different scenarios of power system in the ASEAN countries that include a base scenario and three additional scenarios (called optimum RE, ASEAN RE, and High RE) considering different levels of deployment of renewable energy (RE) and cross-border generation and trade of electricity for three years (2025, 2030, 2040). In this work, we quantify the potential air quality and public health co-benefits of AIMS III scenarios. For a rapidly expanding, energy hungry region like SE Asia generation is power generation is expected to increase significantly. The AIMS III scenarios' capacity expansion modeling suggest that: 1) Generation nearly doubles from 2025 to 2040 in all four AIMS III scenarios; 2) Most of the increased generation is met by coal in all four AIMS III scenarios; 3) While renewables generation increases in all four AIMS III scenarios, the fraction of total generation (its share) generally decreases because of the much greater increase in non-renewable sources, mostly coal. Only in the High RE Target scenario do renewables represent a higher share in 2040 than in 2025, though even here it is at the expense of natural gas rather than coal; 4) As a result, emissions of gaseous and aerosol pollutants increase significantly in all scenarios. Because emissions increase in 2040 compared to 2025 for all four AIMS III scenarios, so do PM2.5 concentrations. Even for the High RE Target scenario (the scenario with highest share of renewable energy), compared to the Base scenario in 2025, in 2040 PM2.5 concentrations are higher. Compared to the Base scenario in the same years, the Optimum RE and ASEAN RE Target scenarios do not differ very much from the Base in terms of PM2.5 concentration. The High RE Target scenario, on the other hand, yields noticeably lower PM2.5 concentration. For example, in 2040 the population-weighted decrease in annual average PM2.5 concentration in the High RE Target scenario relative to the Base scenario is 0.5 ug m-3. Compared to the Base scenario in 2040, each of the alternative AIMS III scenarios is estimated to result in net reductions in power-sector air quality-related excess mortality in the ASEAN region. Yet there are a few countries for which the Optimum RE and ASEAN RE Target result in increases in PM2.5-related excess mortality (Thailand and Vietnam for the ASEAN RE Target scenario and Thailand for the Optimum RE scenario). However, for the High RE Target scenario, all countries benefit and find reductions in excess mortality resulting from the power sector scenarios modeled in AIMS III with regionwide mortality decreasing by 16,000 compared to the Base scenario in 2040. In summary, our analysis finds that changing power generation emissions is a crucial lever for improving public health in ASEAN member countries and provides a pathway for policymakers to make decision backed by a realistic power sector expansion and air quality analyses.

air quality↗
DOE OSTI2020

A non-cooperative meta-modeling game for automated third-party calibrating, validating and falsifying constitutive laws with parallelized adversarial attacks

The evaluation of constitutive models, especially for high-risk and high-regret engineering applications, requires efficient and rigorous third-party calibration, validation and falsification. While there are numerous efforts to develop paradigms and standard procedures to validate models, difficulties may arise due to the sequential, manual, and often biased nature of the commonly adopted calibration and validation processes, thus slowing down data collections, hampering the progress towards discovering new physics, increasing expenses and possibly leading to misinterpretations of the credibility and application ranges of proposed models. This work attempts to introduce concepts from game theory and machine learning techniques to overcome many of these existing difficulties. Here, we introduce an automated meta-modeling game where two competing AI agents systematically generate experimental data to calibrate a given constitutive model and to explore its weakness such that the experiment design and model robustness can be improved through competitions. The two agents automatically search for the Nash equilibrium of the meta-modeling game in an adversarial reinforcement learning framework without human intervention. In particular, a protagonist agent seeks to find the more effective ways to generate data for model calibrations, while an adversary agent tries to find the most devastating test scenarios that expose the weaknesses of the constitutive model calibrated by the protagonist. By capturing all possible design options of the laboratory experiments into a single decision tree, we recast the design of experiments as a game of combinatorial moves that can be resolved through deep reinforcement learning by the two competing players. Our adversarial framework emulates idealized scientific collaborations and competitions among researchers to achieve a better understanding of the application range of the learned material laws and prevent misinterpretations caused by conventional AI-based third-party validation. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the wide applicability of the proposed meta-modeling game with adversarial attacks on both human-crafted constitutive models and machine learning models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Different Operation Conditions and Geological Formation Characteristics on CO2 Sequestration in Citronelle Dome, Alabama

Major concerns of carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration in subsurface formations are knowledge of the well injectivity and gas storage capacity of the formation, the CO2 pressure and saturation plume extensions during and after injection, and the risks associated with CO2 leakage and fault reactivation. Saline reservoirs are considered as one of the target formations for CO2 sequestration through structural, residual, dissolution, and mineral trapping mechanisms. The boundary condition of the saline reservoir dictates the pressure and saturation plume extension of the injected supercritical CO2 that could expand over large distances. This can lead to sources of risk, e.g., leakage and/or fault reactivation due to presence of wells, thief zones, and geological discontinuities. Therefore, there is a critical need to develop a model that describes how risk-related performance metrics (i.e., the CO2 saturation plume size, the pressure differential plume area, and the pressure differential at specific locations) vary as a function of the size of injection, time following injection, injection operations, and geologic environment. In this study, a systematic reservoir modeling studies of anthropogenic CO2 sequestration in Citronelle dome, Alabama, was performed where all relevant scenarios and conditions to address the questions of the saturation and pressure plume size in the area of review (AoR) and post-injection site care (PISC) are considered. The objective for this study was firstly to systematically simulate CO2 sequestration, i.e., saturation dynamics, and pressure behavior over a range of operational and geological conditions and to derive conclusions about the factors influencing saturation and pressure plume size, post-injection behavior, and the risk associated with them, by developing third-generation reduced order models (ROMs) for reservoir behavior. Finally, to assess the uncertainty associated with our studies, Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) together with an experimental design technique, i.e., Plackett–Burman design, was used. Application of Pareto charts and respond surfaces enabled us to determine the most important parameters impacting saturation and pressure plume sizes and to quantify the auto- and cross-correlation among different parameters in both history-matched and upscaled models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revising the Role of Cortical Cytoskeleton during Secretion: Actin and Myosin XI Function in Vesicle Tethering

In plants, secretion of cell wall components and membrane proteins plays a fundamental role in growth and development as well as survival in diverse environments. Exocytosis, as the last step of the secretory trafficking pathway, is a highly ordered and precisely controlled process involving tethering, docking, and fusion of vesicles at the plasma membrane (PM) for cargo delivery. Although the exocytic process and machinery are well characterized in yeast and animal models, the molecular players and specific molecular events that underpin late stages of exocytosis in plant cells remain largely unknown. Here, by using the delivery of functional, fluorescent-tagged cellulose synthase (CESA) complexes (CSCs) to the PM as a model system for secretion, as well as single-particle tracking in living cells, we describe a quantitative approach for measuring the frequency of vesicle tethering events. Genetic and pharmacological inhibition of cytoskeletal function, reveal that the initial vesicle tethering step of exocytosis is dependent on actin and myosin XI. In contrast, treatments with the microtubule inhibitor, oryzalin, did not significantly affect vesicle tethering or fusion during CSC exocytosis but caused a minor increase in transient or aborted tethering events. With data from this new quantitative approach and improved spatiotemporal resolution of single particle events during secretion, we generate a revised model for the role of the cortical cytoskeleton in CSC trafficking.

Zhang, Weiwei↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying health benefits of sustainable aviation fuels: Modeling decreased ultrafine particle emissions and associated impacts on communities near the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport

Exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP, ≤100 nm) is an emerging health concern linked to premature mortality, with jet fuel combustion identified as a significant source of UFPs near airports. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) adoption has the potential to reduce aviation-related UFPs and may particularly benefit populations who reside nearby. However, assessing aviation-specific impacts on health remains challenging due to the lack of tools capable of addressing: fine-scale exposure evaluation, novel ambient pollutants, and groups with increased exposure or susceptibility. We develop and apply a method to estimate reductions in mortality associated with aviation-related UFP reductions at the Seattle-Tacoma (SEA-TAC) International Airport under SAF adoption scenarios, with a focus on near-airport communities. Using UFP exposure surfaces generated from AERMOD modeling, flight count data, and UFP measurements, we evaluated UFP reductions under various control scenarios. We estimated mortality reductions by combining this with population data, baseline mortality, and a hazard ratio of 1.012 (95 % confidence interval: 1.010, 1.015) per interquartile range increment of 2723 particles/cm 3 . Our analysis included 412 census tracts representing almost 1.5 million adults. Baseline aviation-related UFP exposures averaged 1145 (SD: 277) particles/cm 3 . The highest baseline concentrations and subsequent reductions under SAF scenarios were near SEA-TAC. Mortality case reductions averaged between 3.1 (95 % range: 2.5–3.7) for a 5 % UFP reduction to 31.0 (24.6–37.4) for a 50 % reduction, with corresponding mortality rate reductions of 0.2 (0.2–0.3) to 2.1 (1.7–2.5) cases per 100,000 people per year. Mortality rate reductions were larger among populations residing closer to SEA-TAC, including those that were Hispanic or Latino, below-poverty, and did not identify as White. Reducing aviation-related UFPs through SAF adoption could lead to lower mortality, particularly in near-airport communities. This reproducible approach can be adapted to other settings to evaluate health benefits from aviation-related UFP reductions.

Aviation-related air pollution↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the impact of temporal analysis of products reactor initial state uncertainties on kinetic parameters

The temporal analysis of products (TAP) reactor, a transient kinetic tool, provides users with information as the catalyst state evolves. However, the state of the art for TAP uncertainty quantification only considers the experimental noise present in the outlet flow signal. Additional sources of uncertainty, including, but not limited to, initial surface coverages, the catalyst zone location, the inert void fraction, and the gas pulse intensity and pulse delay, are not included. For this reason, a framework for quantifying all uncertainty sources present in TAP experiments is presented and applied to a carbon monoxide oxidation case study. Herein, two methods for quantifying these sources of uncertainty are introduced. The first utilizes initial state sensitivities to approximate the parameter variances, as well as to provide insights into the structural certainty of the model. The second generates parameter confidence distributions through an ensemble-based sampling algorithm. This initial state covariance matrix can ultimately be merged with the experimental noise covariance matrix, providing a unified description of the parameter uncertainties for a single TAP experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward ultra-efficient high-fidelity predictions of wind turbine wakes: Augmenting the accuracy of engineering models with machine learning

This study proposes a novel machine learning (ML) methodology for the efficient and cost-effective prediction of high-fidelity three-dimensional velocity fields in the wake of utility-scale turbines. The model consists of an autoencoder convolutional neural network with U-Net skipped connections, fine-tuned using high-fidelity data from large-eddy simulations (LES). The trained model takes the low-fidelity velocity field cost-effectively generated from the analytical engineering wake model as input and produces the high-fidelity velocity fields. The accuracy of the proposed ML model is demonstrated in a utility-scale wind farm for which datasets of wake flow fields were previously generated using LES under various wind speeds, wind directions, and yaw angles. Comparing the ML model results with those of LES, the ML model was shown to reduce the error in the prediction from 20% obtained from the Gauss Curl hybrid (GCH) model to less than 5%. In addition, the ML model captured the non-symmetric wake deflection observed for opposing yaw angles for wake steering cases, demonstrating a greater accuracy than the GCH model. The computational cost of the ML model is on par with that of the analytical wake model while generating numerical outcomes nearly as accurate as those of the high-fidelity LES.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning models for volumetric swelling in uranium nitride

Machine learning methods are applied to predict the volumetric swelling rate of the nuclear fuel uranium nitride (UN) over various temperatures, irradiation conditions, and power densities. Both kernel-based methods and symbolic regression models for UN swelling are developed and compared with multiple experimental datasets. We find that the UN pellet geometry and dimensions must be taken into account to accurately model swelling behavior. Strong agreement is observed between the developed machine learning models and the data. The predictive error generated by the machine learning models improves on empirical models taken from the literature. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine which properties such as temperature, burnup, and power density, are most important in the swelling process. We find that machine learning can be used to quickly develop accurate swelling models for nuclear materials. In conclusion, the presented results illustrate the potential of machine learning to determine volumetric swelling in UN.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A computational fluid dynamics model to estimate local quantities in firebrand char oxidation

Firebrand burning is a complex phenomenon that is influenced by several parameters which are difficult to fully explore experimentally. Computational fluid dynamics models capable of predicting local quantities are essential for accurate prediction of char oxidation in firebrands. This article presents a computational fluid dynamics model to estimate firebrand mass loss, diameter change, and surface temperature during char oxidation. The model was validated using previously conducted wind tunnel experiments. These experiments were conducted for firebrands of two different aspect ratios, which were arranged in three different configurations (single, horizontal array, and vertical array), and for four different wind speeds (0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 m/s). The computational fluid dynamics results were compared with a previous 1 D model. In all the test cases, the computational fluid dynamics model predicted the physical phenomena with significantly improved accuracy compared to a 1 D model. The char oxidation model presented in this article can be coupled with other models to study firebrand generation and trajectory, biomass pyrolysis, fluidized bed reactors, and coal combustion.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Risk-Informed Approach to Trustworthiness Assessment in Digital Twins-Based Autonomous Control

In autonomous control systems, digital twins (DTs) are used to perform diagnostic and prognostic functions. The trustworthiness of these DTs is dependent on quality and coverage of the training data, model accuracy and integrity of sensor data. This work introduces a methodology to determine the trustworthiness of a DT system given faulty sensor data using a risk informed approach. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are used to propagate uncertainties and determine the probability of trustable recommendations. The decision to trust the control action provided by the DT is based on the DT output, expert opinion, and severity of problems. The performance of DTs is reliant on the data they are trained on. When they encounter out of distribution data, the trustworthiness of the recommendations decreases. To address this issue, we include an expert component that provides input on sensor degradation. For this, we utilize a generative artificial intelligence (AI) model, such as Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT). The GPT functions as an expert with broad knowledge. The GPT is fine-tuned to understand and discriminate sensor degradation scenarios using manufactured data. This methodology is demonstrated through a case study on a Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System (NAMAC) during a steady state scenario. Various sensor degradation types with different severity levels are considered. Degraded sensor data is processed by the DT system and the fine-tuned GPT. Finally, using the BBN, we combine the GPT information and the DT output with its sources of uncertainty. This provides an output regarding the trustworthiness of the DT recommendation.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generation of multiple attosecond sub-bursts in femtosecond pulse trains by long-wavelength driving lasers

High-order harmonics generated by a long intense femtosecond laser are known experimentally to create attosecond pulse trains (APTs). In the time domain, an APT consists of a sequence of sharp attosecond bursts that are equally separated by each half optical cycle. Here, in this work, we show that such well-known features can be modified when a longer wavelength driving laser is used. From our simulations, we show that multiple shorter attosecond sub-bursts exist in the femtosecond pulse train within each half optical cycle and the duration of each sub-burst scales approximately as $λ^{–2}_0$ with the driving laser wavelength λ 0 . We show that such sub-bursts can be found using quantitative rescattering model for harmonics generated from a single atom, and their origin is due to the interference of the quantum orbits from first two returns of the recombining electron. We further show that such sub-bursts can be phase matched under proper laser focusing condition and the position of the gas cell, thus, such new features should be observable experimentally.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving estimates of sub-daily gross primary production from solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence by accounting for light distribution within canopy

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has long been regarded as a proxy for photosynthesis and has shown superiority in estimating gross primary production (GPP) compared to traditional vegetation indices, especially in evergreen ecosystems. However, current SIF-based GPP estimations regard the canopy as a large leaf and seldom consider the impact of interactions among light, canopy structure, and leaf physiology. In this study, we proposed GPP estimation models with different descriptions of light–structure–physiology interactions (including the layered model, the two-leaf model, and the layered two-leaf model) and compared their performances with the big-leaf model using half-hourly (or hourly) observations at evergreen needleleaf forest sites. First, we found that the big-leaf model underestimated GPP, especially at noon. All models showed higher accuracy than that of the big-leaf model. Second, we investigated the diurnal dynamics of GPP estimations in each canopy layer and found that models with a two-leaf assumption captured the diurnal variations in GPP better than that with the layered assumption. Here we also deduced that the poor performance of the big-leaf model was related to its overestimation of the overall light stress on the redox state of PSII reaction centers (qL). Finally, we noticed that the qL at the canopy scale had lower sensitivity to light change than the single-leaf qL and that the light response of canopy-scale qL was influenced by the leaf area index during seasonal cycles. Overall, this study describes methods to accurately estimate sub-daily GPP from SIF in evergreen needleleaf forests and demonstrates that the interactions among light, canopy structure, and leaf physiology regulate the SIF-GPP relationship at the canopy scale. Further, it indicates the need to consider the description of light distribution within the canopy in next-generation terrestrial biosphere models, even if they incorporate SIF to constrain their parameterization. Thus, upscaling the established leaf-scale mechanistic SIF-GPP relationship or findings to canopy-scale applications still requires much work, especially when there are significant changes in environmental conditions and their within-canopy distributions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Path sampling of recurrent neural networks by incorporating known physics

Recurrent neural networks have seen widespread use in modeling dynamical systems in varied domains such as weather prediction, text prediction and several others. Often one wishes to supplement the experimentally observed dynamics with prior knowledge or intuition about the system. While the recurrent nature of these networks allows them to model arbitrarily long memories in the time series used in training, it makes it harder to impose prior knowledge or intuition through generic constraints. In this work, we present a path sampling approach based on principle of Maximum Caliber that allows us to include generic thermodynamic or kinetic constraints into recurrent neural networks. We show the method here for a widely used type of recurrent neural network known as long short-term memory network in the context of supplementing time series collected from different application domains. These include classical Molecular Dynamics of a protein and Monte Carlo simulations of an open quantum system continuously losing photons to the environment and displaying Rabi oscillations. Our method can be easily generalized to other generative artificial intelligence models and to generic time series in different areas of physical and social sciences, where one wishes to supplement limited data with intuition or theory based corrections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unified Wind-Wave Growth and Spectrum Functions for All Water Depths: Field Observations and Model Results

Abstract Wind-wave development is governed by the fetch- or duration-limited growth principle that is expressed as a pair of similarity functions relating the dimensionless elevation variance (wave energy) and spectral peak frequency to fetch or duration. Combining the pair of similarity functions, the fetch or duration variable can be removed to form a dimensionless function of elevation variance and spectral peak frequency, which is interpreted as the wave energy evolution with wave age. The relationship is initially developed for quasi-neural stability and quasi-steady wind forcing conditions. Further analyses show that the same fetch, duration, and wave-age similarity functions are applicable to unsteady wind forcing conditions, including rapidly accelerating and decelerating mountain gap wind episodes and tropical cyclone (TC) wind fields. Here it is shown that with the dimensionless frequency converted to dimensionless wavenumber using the surface wave dispersion relationship, the same similarity function is applicable in all water depths. Field data collected in shallow to deep waters and mild to TC wind conditions and synthetic data generated by spectrum model computations are assembled to illustrate the applicability. For the simulation work, the finite-depth wind-wave spectrum model and its shoaling function are formulated for variable spectral slopes. Given wind speed, wave age, and water depth, the measured and spectrum-computed significant wave heights and the associated growth parameters are in good agreement in forcing conditions from mild to TC winds and in all depths from deep ocean to shallow lake. Significance Statement This paper presents a growth function and spectrum model to describe wind-wave development in all water depths. Their applicability covers a wide range of wind forcing conditions including steady, accelerating, decelerating, and tropical cyclone events. Support for the unified spectrum model and growth function is presented with field observations and numerical computations.

Hwang, Paul A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving commercial truck fleet composition in emission modeling using 2021 US VIUS data

Commercial trucks are essential elements of the nation's supply chain system. Meanwhile, intensive truck movements contribute significantly to system externalities, such as energy use and air pollution. However, collecting detailed fleet composition and distribution of operational patterns remains a barrier to accurately accounting for these impacts. The recently released 2021 US Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (US VIUS) fills a critical gap in understanding commercial truck fleet distributions, their operations, and business constraints at the national scale. This study aims to understand the latest US commercial vehicle fleet composition and operational characteristics using 2021 US VIUS data and calibrate the fleet inputs in regulatory emission models to assess the potential emission implications of the VIUS-derived fleet composition. The emission rates for commercial trucks and default fleet composition are collected from the U.S. EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES4). The 2021 US VIUS data is applied to improve fleet characteristics such as the long-haul fraction and the vehicle mileage accumulation rate. The study also investigates potential emission reduction benefits under various forecasted fleet electrification scenarios. The energy consumption and critical air pollutant rates by vehicle types are compared between MOVES4 and US VIUS fleets for both current and future scenarios to provide insights into the latest U.S. commercial vehicle fleet characteristics and their implications on energy and emissions. This study helps policymakers and practitioners advance the commercial fleet generation for emission models. It also deepens the understanding of the emission reduction potential of the commercial fleet under various fleet projections.

2021 US VIUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cyber Attack Sequences Generation for Electric Power Grid

Security assessment of cyber-physical energy systems (CPESs) such as the electric power grid is a critical operation to maintain availability, reliability, and quality of service in the presence of persistent threats from malicious cyber actors. Existing security assessment approaches such as penetration testing and red teaming rely on subject matter expert experience and forensic cyber analysis of historical events to perform realistic, threat-informed assessments of CPES defense. CPESs have a large attack surface because of the heterogeneity and complexity of underlying topology, devices, measurements, and vulnerabilities. The aforementioned approaches lead to partial coverage of the attack surface with a large set of unknown but possible exploits. There is a need to automate the CPES attack surface discovery and contextualize it for relevant, highly probable, real-world attack scenarios. We propose a methodology and framework to facilitate the discovery of the CPES attack surface. We present a multilayer attack graph with ranked attack sequences to describe CPES failure scenarios. We present a work-in-progress framework that lists key components to automate the attack modeling and sequence generation. We demonstrate the published National Electric Sector Cybersecurity Organization Resource CPES failure scenario to highlight the trustworthiness of generated attack sequences.

Dutta, Ashutosh↗