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At least 1,441 records · Page 80

Deep Interacting Multiple Model Filtering

In this paper, a deep learning-based multiple model estimation framework is presented for the state estimation of hybrid dynamical systems from high dimensional observations such as camera images. A low dimensional vector which represents the measurement of the latent dynamical system and its corresponding variance are learned using a deep encoder neural network. An Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) filter is used to generate the latent state estimates and covariances using multiple dynamical models, which can be learned using backpropagation through time. The state estimates of the dynamical system and the corresponding covariance matrix are generated from the latent state estimates and covariance using a deep decoder neural network. The whole network is trained in an end-to-end manner using a loss function which minimizes the negative log-likelihood of the neural network parameters. Simulation results are presented using a 2D bouncing ball example and estimation error statistics are computed which demonstrates the accuracy and consistency of the estimation.

Ghananeel Rotithor↗

Monitoring Noble Gases (Xe and Kr) and Aerosols (Cs and Rb) in a Molten Salt Reactor Surrogate Off-Gas Stream Using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS)

In this study with surrogate materials we show that laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a robust tool with promising capability toward monitoring gaseous (Xe and Kr) and aerosol (Cs and Rb) species in an off-gas stream from a molten salt reactor (MSR). MSRs will continually evolve fission products into the cover gas flowing across the reactor headspace. The cover gas entrains Xe and Kr gases, along with aerosol particles, before passing into an off-gas treatment system. Univariate models of Xe and Kr peaks showed a strong correlation to concentration indicated by their coefficients of determination of 0.983 and 0.997, respectively. Multivariate models were built for all four analytes using partial least squares regression coupled with preprocessing steps including normalization, trimming, and/or genetic algorithm derived filters. The models were evaluated by predicting the concentrations of the analytes in four validation samples, in which all calibration models were successfully validated at a confidence interval of 99.9%. Finally, pressure controllers were used to regulate the mass flow rate of Kr flowing into the measurement cell in sinusoidal and stepwise waveforms to test the real-time monitoring capabilities of the regression models. Both univariate and partial least squares Kr models were able to successfully quantify the gas concentration in the real-time evaluation. The root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) values for these real-time tests were calculated to be 0.051, 0.060, and 0.121 mol% demonstrating the measurement systems’ capability to perform online monitoring with acceptable accuracy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

GraphAlign: Graph-Enabled Machine Learning for Seismic Event Filtering

This report summarizes results from a 2 year effort to improve the current automated seismic event processing system by leveraging machine learning models that can operated over the inherent graph data structure of a seismic sensor network. Specifically, the GraphAlign project seeks to utilize prior information on which stations are more likely to detect signals originating from particular geographic regions to inform event filtering. To date, the GraphAlign team has developed a Graphical Neural Network (GNN) model to filter out false events generated by the Global Associator (GA) algorithm. The algorithm operates directly on waveform data that has been associated to an event by building a variable sized graph of station waveforms nodes with edge relations to an event location node. This builds off of previous work where random forest models were used to do the same task using hand crafted features. The GNN model performance was analyzed using an 8 week IMS/IDC dataset, and it was demonstrated that the GNN outperforms the random forest baseline. We provide additional error analysis of which events the GNN model performs well and poorly against concluded by future directions for improvements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

An extended Kalman filter based automatic frequency control loop

An Automatic Frequency Control (AFC) loop based on an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is introduced and analyzed in detail. The scheme involves an EKF which operates on a modified set of data in order to track the frequency of the incoming signal. The algorithm can also be viewed as a modification to the well known cross-product AFC loop. A low carrier-to-noise ratio (CNR), high-dynamic environment is used to test the algorithm and the probability of loss-of-lock is assessed via computer simulations. The scheme is best suited for scenarios in which the frequency error variance can be compromised to achieve a very low operating CNR threshold. This technique can easily be incorporated in the Advanced Receiver (ARX), requiring minimum software modifications.

Hinedi, S.↗

G2Aero Database of Airfoils - Curated Airfoils

This dataset contains a curated set of 19,164 airfoil shapes from various applications and the data-driven design space of separable shape tensors (PGA space), which can be used as a parameter space for machine-learning applications focused on airfoil shapes. We constructed the airfoil dataset in two main stages. First, we identified 13 baseline airfoils from the NREL 5MW and IEA 15MW reference wind turbines. We reparameterized these shapes using least-squares fits of 8-order CST parametrizations, which involve 18 coefficients. By uniformly perturbing all 18 CST coefficients by +/-20% around each baseline airfoil, we generated 1,000 unique airfoils. Each airfoil was sampled with 1,001 shape landmarks whose x-coordinates followed a cosine distribution along the chord. This process resulted in a total of 13,000 airfoil shapes, each with 1,001 landmarks. In the second phase, we gathered additional airfoils from the extensive BigFoil database, which consolidates data from sources such as the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) airfoil database, the JavaFoil database, the NACA-TR-824 database, and others. We undertook a thorough pre-processing step to filter out shapes with sparse, noisy, or incomplete data. We also removed airfoils with sharp leading edge and those exceeding our threshold for trailing edge thickness. Additionally, we thinned out the collection of NACA airfoils-- parametric sweeps of NACA airfoils with increasing thickness and camber present in BigFoil database-- by selecting every fourth step in the parameter sweeps. Finally, we regularized the airfoils by reparametrizing them with an 8-order CST parametrization (with 1,001 shape landmarks with x coordinated following cosine distribution along the chord) and removing airfoils with high reconstruction errors. This data pre-processing resulted in a set of 6,164 airfoils. In total, our curated airfoil dataset comprises 19,164 airfoils, each with 1,001 landmarks, and is stored in the curated_airfoils.npz file. Using this curated airfoil dataset, we utilized the separable shape tensors framework to develop a data-driven parameterization of airfoils based on principal geodesic analysis (PGA) of separable shape tensors. This PGA space is provided in PGAspace.npz file.

airfoils↗

Development of response models for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) sensors. Part 1: Dynamic models and computer simulations for the ERBE nonscanner, scanner and solar monitor sensors

Dynamic models and computer simulations were developed for the radiometric sensors utilized in the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The models were developed to understand performance, improve measurement accuracy by updating model parameters and provide the constants needed for the count conversion algorithms. Model simulations were compared with the sensor's actual responses demonstrated in the ground and inflight calibrations. The models consider thermal and radiative exchange effects, surface specularity, spectral dependence of a filter, radiative interactions among an enclosure's nodes, partial specular and diffuse enclosure surface characteristics and steady-state and transient sensor responses. Relatively few sensor nodes were chosen for the models since there is an accuracy tradeoff between increasing the number of nodes and approximating parameters such as the sensor's size, material properties, geometry, and enclosure surface characteristics. Given that the temperature gradients within a node and between nodes are small enough, approximating with only a few nodes does not jeopardize the accuracy required to perform the parameter estimates and error analyses.

Halyo, Nesim↗

Low-Cost Tracking Ground Terminal Designed to Use Cryogenically Cooled Electronics

A computer-controlled, tracking ground terminal will be assembled at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field to receive signals transmitted by the Glenn's Direct Data Distribution (D3) payload planned for a shuttle flight in low Earth orbit. The terminal will enable direct data reception of up to two 622-megabits-per-second (Mbps) beams from the space-based, K-band (19.05-GHz) transmitting array at an end-user bit error rate of up to 10(exp -12). The ground terminal will include a 0.9-m-diameter receive-only Cassegrain reflector antenna with a corrugated feed horn incorporating a dual circularly polarized, K-band feed assembly mounted on a multiaxis, gimbaled tracking pedestal as well as electronics to receive the downlink signals. The tracking system will acquire and automatically track the shuttle through the sky for all elevations greater than 20 above the horizon. The receiving electronics for the ground terminal consist of a six-pole microstrip bandpass filter, a three-stage monolithic microwave integrated circuit (MMIC) amplifier, and a Stirling cycle cryocooler (1 W at 80 K). The Sterling cycle cryocooler cools the front end of the receiver, also known as the low-noise amplifier (LNA), to about 77 K. Cryocooling the LNA significantly increases receiver performance, which is necessary so that it can use the antenna, which has an aperture of only 0.9 m. The following drawing illustrates the cryoterminal.

Wald, Lawrence W.↗

Orbit Determination of Spacecraft in Earth-Moon L1 and L2 Libration Point Orbits

The ARTEMIS mission, part of the THEMIS extended mission, is the first to fly spacecraft in the Earth-Moon Lissajous regions. In 2009, two of the five THEMIS spacecraft were redeployed from Earth-centered orbits to arrive in Earth-Moon Lissajous orbits in late 2010. Starting in August 2010, the ARTEMIS P1 spacecraft executed numerous stationkeeping maneuvers, initially maintaining a lunar L2 Lissajous orbit before transitioning into a lunar L1 orbit. The ARTEMIS P2 spacecraft entered a L1 Lissajous orbit in October 2010. In April 2011, both ARTEMIS spacecraft will suspend Lissajous stationkeeping and will be maneuvered into lunar orbits. The success of the ARTEMIS mission has allowed the science team to gather unprecedented magnetospheric measurements in the lunar Lissajous regions. In order to effectively perform lunar Lissajous stationkeeping maneuvers, the ARTEMIS operations team has provided orbit determination solutions with typical accuracies on the order of 0.1 km in position and 0.1 cm/s in velocity. The ARTEMIS team utilizes the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), using a batch least squares method, to process range and Doppler tracking measurements from the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN), Berkeley Ground Station (BGS), Merritt Island (MILA) station, and United Space Network (USN). The team has also investigated processing of the same tracking data measurements using the Orbit Determination Tool Kit (ODTK) software, which uses an extended Kalman filter and recursive smoother to estimate the orbit. The orbit determination results from each of these methods will be presented and we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages associated with using each method in the lunar Lissajous regions. Orbit determination accuracy is dependent on both the quality and quantity of tracking measurements, fidelity of the orbit force models, and the estimation techniques used. Prior to Lissajous operations, the team determined the appropriate quantity of tracking measurements that would be needed to meet the required orbit determination accuracies. Analysts used the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS) to perform covariance analyses using various tracking data schedules. From this analysis, it was determined that 3.5 hours of DSN TRK-2-34 range and Doppler tracking data every other day would suffice to meet the predictive orbit knowledge accuracies in the Lissajous region. The results of this analysis are presented. Both GTDS and ODTK have high-fidelity environmental orbit force models that allow for very accurate orbit estimation in the lunar Lissajous regime. These models include solar radiation pressure, Earth and Moon gravity models, third body gravitational effects from the Sun, and to a lesser extent third body gravitational effects from Jupiter, Venus, Saturn, and Mars. Increased position and velocity uncertainties following each maneuver, due to small execution performance errors, requires that several days of post-maneuver tracking data be processed to converge on an accurate post-maneuver orbit solution. The effects of maneuvers on orbit determination accuracy will be presented, including a comparison of the batch least squares technique to the extended Kalman filter/smoother technique. We will present the maneuver calibration results derived from processing post-maneuver tracking data. A dominant error in the orbit estimation process is the uncertainty in solar radiation pressure and the resultant force on the spacecraft. An estimation of this value can include many related factors, such as the uncertainty in spacecraft reflectivity and surface area which is a function of spacecraft orientation (spin-axis attitude), uncertainty in spacecraft wet mass, and potential seasonal variability due to the changing direction of the Sun line relative to the Earth-Moon Lissajous reference frame. In addition, each spacecraft occasionally enters into Earth or Moon penumbra or umbra and these shadow crossings reduche solar radiation force for several hours. The effects of these events on orbit determination accuracy will be presented. In order to plan for upcoming stationkeeping maneuvers, the maneuver planning team must take the current orbit estimate, propagate it forward to the planned maneuver time, and determine the optimal maneuver to maintain the Lissajous orbit for one or more revolutions. The propagation is performed using a Runge-Kutta 7/8 integrator and typically the position and velocity uncertainty increases with propagation time, increasing the overall uncertainty of the orbit state at the maneuver execution time. The effect of orbit knowledge uncertainty on stationkeeping operations will be presented.

Woodard, Mark↗

SLOPE daily and 250 m gross primary productivity (GPP) for the CONUS, 2000-2019, Carbon Monitoring System (CMS)

The SatelLite Only Photosynthesis Estimation (SLOPE) GPP product is a daily, 250 m GPP dataset covering the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2000 to present with 1 day latency. Gross primary productivity (GPP) quantifies the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) fixed by plants through photosynthesis. Although as a key quantity of terrestrial ecosystems, there is a lack of high-spatial-and-temporal-resolution, real-time, and observation-based GPP products. This product has been developed to address this critical gap, leveraging a number of MODIS land and atmosphere products. There are three distinct features of the SLOPE GPP production algorithm. (1) SLOPE couples machine learning models with MODIS atmosphere and land products to accurately estimate PAR. (2) SLOPE couples highly efficient and pragmatic gap-filling and filtering algorithms with surface reflectance acquired by both Terra and Aqua MODIS satellites to derive a soil-adjusted NIRv (SANIRv) dataset. (3) SLOPE couples a temporal pattern recognition approach with a long-term Crop Data Layer (CDL) product to predict dynamic C4 crop fraction. PAR, SANIRv and C4 fraction are used to drive a parsimonious model with only two slope parameters to estimate GPP along with a quantitative uncertainty on a per-pixel and daily basis. The slope GPP product has a R2 = 0.84 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.65 gC m-2 d-1, evaluated against from 50 AmeriFlux eddy covariance sites (332 site-years). Archived data from 2000 to 2019 are publicly available at the NASA's Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC). Data from 2020 are available from the authors upon request. All data are projected in the standard MODIS Land Integerized Sinusoidal tile map projection. Each processing tile is in size of 4800 pixels by 4800 pixels, representing approximately 1200 km by 1200 km land region. In addition to the GPP product, SLOPE PAR, SANIRV, and C4 fraction, along with their uncertainties, are also released.

Jiang, Chongya↗

Integrated Cryogenic Satellite Communications Cross-Link Receiver Experiment

An experiment has been devised which will validate, in space, a miniature, high-performance receiver. The receiver blends three complementary technologies; high temperature superconductivity (HTS), pseudomorphic high electron mobility transistor (PHEMT) monolithic microwave integrated circuits (MMIC), and a miniature pulse tube cryogenic cooler. Specifically, an HTS band pass filter, InP MMIC low noise amplifier, HTS-sapphire resonator stabilized local oscillator (LO), and a miniature pulse tube cooler will be integrated into a complete 20 GHz receiver downconverter. This cooled downconverter will be interfaced with customized signal processing electronics and integrated onto the space shuttle's 'HitchHiker' carrier. A pseudorandom data sequence will be transmitted to the receiver, which is in low Earth orbit (LEO), via the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) on a 20 GHz carrier. The modulation format is QPSK and the data rate is 2.048 Mbps. The bit error rate (BER) will be measured in situ. The receiver is also equipped with a radiometer mode so that experiment success is not totally contingent upon the BER measurement. In this mode, the receiver uses the Earth and deep space as a hot and cold calibration source, respectively. The experiment closely simulates an actual cross-link scenario. Since the receiver performance depends on channel conditions, its true characteristics would be masked in a terrestrial measurement by atmospheric absorption and background radiation. Furthermore, the receiver's performance depends on its physical temperature, which is a sensitive function of platform environment, thermal design, and cryocooler performance. This empirical data is important for building confidence in the technology.

Romanofsky, R. R.↗

Operational Implementation of Sea Ice Concentration Estimates from the AMSR2 Sensor

An operation implementation of a passive microwave sea ice concentration algorithm to support NOAA's operational mission is presented. The NASA team 2 algorithm, previously developed for the NASA advanced microwave scanning radiometer for the Earth observing system (AMSR-E) product suite, is adapted for operational use with the JAXA AMSR2 sensor through several enhancements. First, the algorithm is modified to process individual swaths and provide concentration from the most recent swaths instead of a 24-hour average. A latency (time since observation) field and a 24-hour concentration range (maximum-minimum) are included to provide indications of data timeliness and variability. Concentration from the Bootstrap algorithm is a secondary field to provide complementary sea ice information. A quality flag is implemented to provide information on interpolation, filtering, and other quality control steps. The AMSR2 concentration fields are compared with a different AMSR2 passive microwave product, and then validated via comparison with sea ice concentration from the Suomi visible and infrared imaging radiometer suite. This validation indicates the AMSR2 concentrations have a bias of 3.9% and an RMSE of 11.0% in the Arctic, and a bias of 4.45% and RMSE of 8.8% in the Antarctic. In most cases, the NOAA operational requirements for accuracy are met. However, in low-concentration regimes, such as during melt and near the ice edge, errors are higher because of the limitations of passive microwave sensors and the algorithm retrieval.

Arctic↗

Video guidance sensor

A Martin-Marietta study comparing the application of laser, video, or RF sensors was conducted in 1982. The study concluded that video was the most attractive sensor (the video also could be used for operator monitoring). The Retro-Reflector field Tracker from the Solar Array Flight Experiment was chosen as a 'first generation' sensor and integrated with guidance algorithms for evaluation on the air-bearing vehicle. Results indicated that this sensor was not applicable for the noise environment posed by the multi-layer insulation used on most spacecraft. A 'second generation' sensor was developed to be used with a modified RMS target. This sensor utilized two sets of laser diodes to acquire three optically filtered targets. The targets were illuminated first with a 780 nanometer diode, followed by illumination with a 830 nm diode. The second digitized picture was subtracted from the first to get a low-noise image. The centroids of the retroreflectors were used then to uniquely derive target attitude and range. The sensor presently operates to 80 feet and within +/- 40 degrees in pitch and yaw. Sensor operability is a concern if the sun is within a +/- 40 degree cone angle to the target. The present sensor performance characteristics are less than 1 percent range error and less than 1 degree angle error. Future sensor development is anticipated to extend the operating range to 150 feet and reduce the cone angle of sensor inoperability to within +/- 10 degrees of direct sunlight. Performance improvements also are anticipated. TRW currently is developing a system that utilizes dual cameras with simultaneous diode illumination. Although further development is being pursued, the basic system has proven sound, and the sensor is essentially ready for application.

Howard, Richard↗

The Charge Transfer Efficiency and Calibration of WFPC2

A new determination of WFPC2 photometric corrections is presented, using HSTphot reduction of the WFPC2 Omega Centauri and NGC 2419 observations from January 1994 through March 2000 and a comparison with ground-based photometry. No evidence is seen for any position-independent photometric offsets (the "long-short anomaly"); all systematic errors appear to be corrected with the CTE and zero point solution. The CTE loss time dependence is determined to be very significant in the Y direction, causing time-independent CTE solutions to be valid only for a small range of times. On average, the present solution produces corrections similar to Whitmore, Heyer, & Casertano, although with an improved functional form that produces less scatter in the residuals and determined with roughly a year of additional data. In addition to the CTE loss characterization, zero point corrections are also determined as functions of chip, gain, filter, and temperature. Of interest, there are chip-to-chip differences of order 0.01 - 0.02 magnitudes relative to the Holtzman et al. calibrations, and the present study provides empirical zero point determinations for the non-standard filters such as the frequently-used F450W, F606W, and F702W.

Dolphin, Andrew E.↗

A ground-based technique for millimeter wave spectroscopic observations of stratospheric trace constituents

Recent concern over possible long term stratospheric changes caused by the introduction of man-made compounds has increased the need for instrumentation that can accurately measure stratospheric minor constituents. The technique of radio spectroscopy at millimeter wavelengths was first used to observe rotational transitions of stratospheric ozone nearly two decades ago, but has not been highly developed until recently. A ground-based observing technique is reported which employs a millimeter-wave superheterodyne receiver and multichannel filter spectrometer for measurements of stratospheric constituents that have peak volume mixing ratios that are less than 10 to the -9th, more than 3 orders of magnitude less than that for ozone. The technique is used for an extensive program of observations of stratospheric chlorine monoxide and also for observations of other stratospheric trace gases such as (O-16)3, vibrationally excited (O-16)3, (O-18)2(O-16), N2O, HO2, and HCN. In the present paper, analysis of the observing technique is given, including the method of calibration and analysis of sources of error. The technique is found to be a reliable means of observing and monitoring important stratospheric trace constituents.

Parrish, A.↗

Analysis and improved design considerations for airborne pulse Doppler radar signal processing in the detection of hazardous windshear

High resolution windspeed profile measurements are needed to provide reliable detection of hazardous low altitude windshear with an airborne pulse Doppler radar. The system phase noise in a Doppler weather radar may degrade the spectrum moment estimation quality and the clutter cancellation capability which are important in windshear detection. Also the bias due to weather return Doppler spectrum skewness may cause large errors in pulse pair spectral parameter estimates. These effects are analyzed for the improvement of an airborne Doppler weather radar signal processing design. A method is presented for the direct measurement of windspeed gradient using low pulse repetition frequency (PRF) radar. This spatial gradient is essential in obtaining the windshear hazard index. As an alternative, the modified Prony method is suggested as a spectrum mode estimator for both the clutter and weather signal. Estimation of Doppler spectrum modes may provide the desired windshear hazard information without the need of any preliminary processing requirement such as clutter filtering. The results obtained by processing a NASA simulation model output support consideration of mode identification as one component of a windshear detection algorithm.

Lee, Jonggil↗

The Feasibility of Tropospheric and Total Ozone Determination Using a Fabry-perot Interferometer as a Satellite-based Nadir-viewing Atmospheric Sensor

Monitoring of the global distribution of tropospheric ozone (O3) is desirable for enhanced scientific understanding as well as to potentially lessen the ill-health impacts associated with exposure to elevated concentrations in the lower atmosphere. Such a capability can be achieved using a satellite-based device making high spectral resolution measurements with high signal-to-noise ratios; this would enable observation in the pressure-broadened wings of strong O3 lines while minimizing the impact of undesirable signal contributions associated with, for example, the terrestrial surface, interfering species, and clouds. The Fabry-Perot Interferometer (FPI) provides high spectral resolution and high throughput capabilities that are essential for this measurement task. Through proper selection of channel spectral regions, the FPI optimized for tropospheric O3 measurements can simultaneously observe a stratospheric component and thus the total O3 column abundance. Decreasing stratospheric O3 concentrations may lead to an increase in biologically harmful solar ultraviolet radiation reaching the earth's surface, which is detrimental to health. In this research, a conceptual instrument design to achieve the desired measurement has been formulated. This involves a double-etalon fixed-gap series configuration FPI along with an ultra-narrow bandpass filter to achieve single-order operation with an overall spectral resolution of approximately .068 cm(exp -1). A spectral region of about 1 cm(exp -1) wide centered at 1054.73 cm(exp -1) within the strong 9.6 micron ozone infrared band is sampled with 24 spectral channels. Other design characteristics include operation from a nadir-viewing satellite configuration utilizing a 9 inch (diameter) telescope and achieving horizontal spatial resolution with a 50 km nadir footprint. A retrieval technique has been implemented and is demonstrated for a tropical atmosphere possessing enhanced tropospheric ozone amounts. An error analysis assessing the impact on retrieved O3 amounts of the most significant uncertainties associated with this particular measurement has been performed for several different types of atmospheres. Results show the proposed instrumentation to enable a good measurement of absolute ozone amounts and an even better determination of relative changes, with a range of accuracy to within 7.55 to 20.6 percent for integrated tropospheric amounts (and 1.99 to 4.02 percent for total O3 column abundance) and a corresponding range in precision to within 7.73 to 10.4 percent (and 3.30 to 3.95 percent for total O3 column abundance), for the atmospheric conditions considered.

Larar, Allen Maurice↗

Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Large Subsurface Flow and Transport Model - 20321

At routinely monitored groundwater contamination sites, periodically measured environmental conditions such as groundwater levels and contaminant concentrations are used to inform and confirm a conceptual site model (CSM) and guide the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The calibration of groundwater flow and transport models after each measurement (sampling) event can illuminate deficiencies in a CSM, identify areas where additional monitoring is warranted, and predict the behavior of the system to guide decision making. However, manual and automated (e.g. PEST) model calibration tools can be time-consuming and computationally expensive to implement after each sampling event. Perhaps as a result, such calibration tools generally utilize all available monitoring data simultaneously rather than sequentially assimilating monitoring data one sampling event at a time as the results from sampling become available. A more real-time data assimilation approach may reduce parameter uncertainty, quantify the value of additional monitoring data, and produce a usable model more quickly and with less effort. To mitigate the potential time-consuming aspects of manual and widely applied automated calibration techniques, a data assimilation algorithm called the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was evaluated as a relatively efficient method of model calibration and uncertainty assessment via the sequential integration of monitoring data into a model. The EnKF was able to successfully and efficiently assimilate monitoring and modeling data to calibrate a complex flow and transport model at a real-world site with significant subsurface heterogeneity, uncertainty, and 12 years of monitoring data (over 4,000 individual measurements of groundwater levels and over 2,500 measurements of contaminant concentrations). Starting with an uncalibrated model data from annual sampling events were sequentially assimilated, and the resultant predication errors and estimated parameter uncertainties were tracked. After all monitoring data were assimilated, both flow and transport residuals at the end of the EnKF process were comparable to those produced via a concurrent PEST calibration effort but required fewer model simulations. Both uncertainty and prediction errors decreased over time. In a real-time application, the adequacy of the model could be assessed after each sampling event. The benefits of such a real-time approach to utilizing monitoring data include reduced costs (in the form of model updates or site characterization efforts), early flagging of possible errors in the CSM, and a reduced risk of overfitting and corresponding increased confidence in model predictions. This tool may be particularly useful compared to other calibration techniques (e.g. manual, PEST) when model runtimes are long, calibration parameters are many, or parameter uncertainty is large. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗