Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Economic Model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Computational Fluid Dynamics of Bioreactors with Micro-Aeration

Recent work has probed the potential for using Zymomonas mobilis as a flexible platform for the production of advanced fuels and intermediates. One set of recombinant organisms requires a micro-aerobic environment to promote the production of the desired product (2,3-BDO), but the economics and process-control implications of this approach are uncertain at industrial scale. Computational multi-physics models have the potential to describe the fermentation in detail at multiple scales, reducing the risk of scale-up. A two-phase Euler-Euler CFD model is used alongside a simple model of oxygen uptake to describe this bioreaction. A few reactor vessels, including airlift and CSTR bioreactors, are analyzed at multiple scales, regions of oxygen-depletion and over-oxygenation are characterized, and the bioreactors are compared. We show that it is difficult to achieve homogenous oxygen concentrations in industrial-scale CSTR reactors and that advanced bioreactor designs are needed for economical operation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Energy Market Schedules Using Historical Price Data: Preprint

The global climate crisis is expected to reshape the energy generation landscape in the coming decades. Increasing integration of non-dispatchable renewable energy resources into energy infrastructures and markets increases uncertainty and creates new opportunities for flexible energy systems. To conduct proper economic evaluation of flexible energy systems, such as integrated energy systems (IES), advancements in modelling of market interactions, such as bidding, is crucial. This work presents a shortcut algorithm which uses two mixed integer linear programs to compute dispatch schedules (e.g., hourly power production targets) that are constrained by the resource's bid information and characteristics (e.g., minimum up and down times) based on historical locational marginal price (LMP) data. This is orders of magnitude less data than required for a market clearing calculation with a full production cost model (PCM). We find the shortcut simulator recapitulates generator dispatch signals for the Prescient PCM with approximately 4% error for the RTS-GMLC test system.

electricity generation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Framework for Optimization, Quantification of Uncertainty and Surrogates – Updated Capabilities

This poster presents updated capabilities within the FOQUS Toolset, covering core features as well as project-based applications. Specifically, the poster highlights advancements in FOQUS integration with cloud-based clients, plugin support for machine learning tools and external simulations, sequential design of experiments, and advanced support for dynamic process models. The applications demonstrate the breadth of FOQUS predictive capabilities for chemical, energy and economic system analysis.

Paul, Brandon↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Models for Electrical Distribution Network Planning and District-Scale Building Energy Use

The increase of greenhouse emissions caused by a rise in global energy consumption is pushing the scientific community to develop tools that address key environmental, techno-economic and social issues. One specific area of focus is to create tools that enable the design of high-performance energy districts, including grid-interactive efficient buildings and electrical distribution infrastructure. This paper outlines the approach of integrating a synthetic distribution network tool (RNM-US) with URBANopt™, a modular and customizable software development kit for thermal and electrical modelling of buildings and energy systems at a district scale. First, we describe the algorithms implemented to integrate RNM-US with URBANopt to automatically generate the distribution network for the district considered. Following, we present a case study for the potential uses of the RNM-US integrations with URBANopt, highlighting the capabilities for economic and technical analysis of the distribution network built in relation to the electricity needs of the modelled buildings.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Establishing a clostridia foundry for biosystems design by integrating computational modeling, systems-level analyses, and cell-free engineering technologies (Final Report)

Rapid population growth, a rise in global living standards, and economic competitiveness have intensified the need for sustainable, low-cost biofuels and bioproducts production. Industrial biotechnology using microbial cell factories – and waste and/or renewable feedstocks – is one of the most attractive approaches for addressing this need, particularly when large-scale chemical synthesis is untenable. Unfortunately, designing, building, and optimizing biosynthetic pathways in cells remains a complex challenge. With support from the Department of Energy, we worked to address this challenge in a new interdisciplinary venture that established the world’s first clostridial Foundry for Biosystems Design (cBioFAB). Working both in vitro (cell-free) and in vivo, the goal of this project was to interweave and advance state-of-the-art computational modeling, genome editing, omics measurements, systems-biology analyses, and cell-free technologies to expand the set of platform organisms that meet DOE bioenergy goals. Specifically, we manufactured fuel and chemical intermediates via existing and de novo pathways. This report covers the outcomes of our research project.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Market Analysis Model

The RLV Market Analysis model is at best a rough order approximation of actual market behavior. However, it does give a quick indication if the flights exists to enable an economically viable RLV, and the assumptions necessary for the vehicle to capture those flights. Additional analysis, market research, and updating with the latest information on payloads and launches would improve the model. Plans are to update the model as new information becomes available and new requirements are levied. This tool will continue to be a vital part of NASA's RLV business analysis capability for the foreseeable future.

Prince, Frank A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1993

Influence of test configuration on the combustion characteristics of polymers as ignition sources

The experimental evaluation of polymers as ignition sources for metals was accomplished at the NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) using a standard promoted combustion test. These tests involve the transient burning of materials in high-pressure oxygen environments. They have provided data from which design decisions can be made; data include video recordings of ignition and non-ignition for specific combinations of metals and polymers. Other tests provide the measured compositions of combustion products for polymers at select burn times and an empirical basis for estimating burn rates. With the current test configuration, the detailed analysis of test results requires modeling a three-dimensional, transient convection process involving fluid motion, thermal conduction and convection, the diffusion of chemical species, and the erosion of sample surface. At the high pressure extremes, it even requires the analysis of turbulent, transient convection where the physics of the problem are not well known and the computation requirements are not practical at this time. An alternative test configuration that can be analyzed with a relatively-simple convection model was developed during the summer period. The principal change constitutes replacing a large-diameter polymer disk at the end of the metal test rod with coaxial polymer cylinders that have a diameter nearer to that of the metal rod. The experimental objective is to assess the importance of test geometries on the promotion of metal ignition by testing with different lengths of the polymer and, with an extended effort, to analyze the surface combustion in the redesigned promoted combustion tests through analytical modeling of the process. The analysis shall use the results of cone-calorimeter tests of the polymer material to model primary chemical reactions and, with proper design of the promoted combustion test, modeling of the convection process could be conveniently limited to a quasi-steady boundary layer analysis where the economical solution of parabolic equations is involved. The products for the summer period are: (1) a conceptual-level redesign of the test apparatus, and (2) the development and use of an approximate integral boundary layer analysis to demonstrate the influence of geometry changes prior to testing. A computer code STAN5, an accurate numerical boundary layer model whose earlier versions were developed for the NASA Lewis Research Center by the Fellow, also was installed and validated on the WSTF and New Mexico State University computer systems as a starting point in the development of a more detailed fluid mechanics and combustion model.

Julien, Howard L.↗
NASA NTRS1973

A study of the potential of remote sensors in urban transportation planning

The potential uses of remotely sensed data as applied to the transportation planning process are presented. By utilizing the remote sensing technology developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in the various space programs, it is hoped that both the expense and errors inherent in the conventional data collection techniques can be avoided. Additional bonuses derived from the use of remotely sensed data are those of the permanent record nature of the data and the traffic engineering data simultaneously made available. The major mathematical modeling phases and the role remotely sensed data might play in replacing conventionally collected data are discussed. Typical surveys undertaken in the overall planning process determine the nature and extent of travel desires, land uses, transportation facilities and socio-economic characteristics. Except for the socio-economic data, data collected in the other surveys mentioned can be taken from photographs in sufficient detail to be useful in the modeling procedures.

Rietschier, D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Combining model-based and model-free methods for stochastic control of distributed energy resources

Modern distribution systems are experiencing a fast transformation with the growing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). Along with the economic and environmental benefits of DERs, challenges arise to address the uncertainties caused by their inherent volatility. If properly coordinated, however, DERs have the potential to provide the controllability that grid operators need. Here, we propose a hierarchical control framework that combines the model-based and model-free methods for stochastic DER control in distribution systems. The upper-level scheduler considers a chance-constrained optimal power flow problem (model-based) that schedules DER setpoints to minimize the operational cost and maintain the operating reserve. The lower-level distributed DER controllers absorb real-time disturbances and uncertainties using the extremum seeking control (model-free) to achieve grid objectives. The combination of model-based and model-free methods allows us to take the advantages of both methods to effectively manage the uncertainty in distribution systems. The proposed work is demonstrated on the IEEE 13-node feeder.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A biosorption-based approach for selective extraction of rare earth elements from coal byproducts

Coal byproducts could be a promising feedstock to alleviate the supply risk of critical rare earth elements (REEs) due to their abundance and REE content. Herein, we investigated the economic and environmental potential of producing REEs from coal fly ash and lignite through an integrated process of leaching, biosorption, and oxalic precipitation based on experimental data and modeling results. Two microbe immobilization systems (PEGDA) microbe beads and Si sol-gels) were examined for their efficiency in immobilizing Arthrobacter nicotianae to selectively recover REEs. Techno-economic analysis revealed that North Dakota lignite could be a profitable feedstock when Si sol-gel is used due to its high cell loading and REE adsorption capacity. Life cycle analysis revealed that Si sol-gel based biosorption could be more environmental friendly than the prevailing REE production in China due to use of less toxic chemicals. However, fly ash sourced from Powder River Basin coals was neither profitable or environmentally sustainable, primarily due to low solublity of high-value scandium at an economical pulp density (100 ash/L). To further improve the proposed biotechnology, future research could focus on scandium recovery, leaching efficiency, and microbe carriers.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

soaring↗
NASA NTRS2015

Lunar COTS: An Economical and Sustainable Approach to Reaching Mars

The NASA COTS (Commercial Orbital Transportation Services) Program was a very successful program that developed and demonstrated cost-effective development and acquisition of commercial cargo transportation services to the International Space Station (ISS). The COTS acquisition strategy utilized a newer model than normally accepted in traditional procurement practices. This new model used Space Act Agreements where NASA entered into partnerships with industry to jointly share cost, development and operational risks to demonstrate new capabilities for mutual benefit. This model proved to be very beneficial to both NASA and its industry partners as NASA saved significantly in development and operational costs while industry partners successfully expanded their market share of the global launch transportation business. The authors, who contributed to the development of the COTS model, would like to extend this model to a lunar commercial services program that will push development of technologies and capabilities that will serve a Mars architecture and lead to an economical and sustainable pathway to transporting humans to Mars. Over the past few decades, several architectures for the Moon and Mars have been proposed and studied but ultimately halted or not even started due to the projected costs significantly exceeding NASA's budgets. Therefore a new strategy is needed that will fit within NASA's projected budgets and takes advantage of the US commercial industry along with its creative and entrepreneurial attributes. The authors propose a new COTS-like program to enter into partnerships with industry to demonstrate cost-effective, cis-lunar commercial services, such as lunar transportation, lunar ISRU operations, and cis-lunar propellant depots that can enable an economical and sustainable Mars architecture. Similar to the original COTS program, the goals of the proposed program, being notionally referred to as Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services (LCOTS) program will be to: 1) reduce development and operational costs by sharing costs with industry; 2) create new markets in cis-lunar space to further reduce operational costs; and 3) enable NASA to develop an affordable and economical exploration Mars architecture. The paper will describe a plan for a proposed LCOTS program, its potential impact to an eventual Mars architecture and its many benefits to NASA, commercial space industry and the US economy.

Lunar ISRU↗
DOE OSTI2023

State-by-state energy-water-land-health impacts of the US net-zero emissions goal

As decisionmakers at various scales begin to design strategies to implement the US net-zero goal, a holistic understanding of its broader economic and sustainability implications at subnational scales is important to shape public support and facilitate implementation. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to explore four different pathways toward the US net-zero goal and investigate their energy-water-land-health implications at the state level. In this study, we show that achieving the net-zero goal implies significant capital turnover (170–200 billion USD/year capital investment and 16–29 billion USD/year stranded assets in the power sector), reduced water withdrawal (120–210 km 3 /year), avoided air pollution damages (220–300 billion USD/year), and expanded forests (300–500 thousand km 2 ). However, the economic and sustainability implications of achieving the net-zero goal at the state-level may not be correlated to a state's contribution to national emission reductions. Our study lays the foundations for a deeper understanding of the broader implications of the US net-zero goal to facilitate cost-effective and environmentally sustainable transitions toward that goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implications of AI and Data Center Service Demand on Energy, Water, and Economic Systems

This talk focuses on the challenges posed by the rapid growth of data centers (DCs), which rely heavily on electricity, water, land, and mineral resources, and have significant interactions with economic growth. The U.S. leads in DC deployment, but understanding how resource demands and constraints impact DC expansion requires strategic multisector analysis. To address this, the talk introduces a new conceptual framework and modeling capability within GCAM-USA, allowing integrated analysis of DC service demand, electricity, and direct and indirect water needs under varied scenarios. Insights include state-level water and electricity trends for DCs, uncertainty bounds, and the broader implications for resources and economics.

Data Centers↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative post-irradiation examination of high burnup U-19Pu-10Zr: Assessing steady-state irradiation behavior against historical and modeled fuel performance

Here, the development of next-generation sodium-cooled fast reactors necessitates comprehensive research on metallic fuels to maximize economic performance while ensuring safe operation. In this study, we investigated the steady-state irradiation behavior of two high burnup U-19Pu-10Zr fuel pins, DP-36 and DP-40, in preparation for planned safety testing. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) was performed to quantify fuel column elongation, regions of low-density at the top of the fuel column, pin deformation, fission product distribution, fractional fission gas release, microstructural evolution, and fuel constituent redistribution. Benchmarking against existing PIE data from U-19Pu-10Zr fuel pins irradiated in EBR-II revealed consistent patterns in fuel column elongation and cladding diametral strain. However, both pins exhibited longer low-density structures, and destructive examination of DP-36 revealed more complex constituent redistribution patterns compared to previously reported data for ternary fuel pins. The steady-state irradiation of both pins was also modeled using BISON. Comparisons of PIE results with modeled predictions showed overall agreement in fractional fission gas release but consistent overestimation of axial and radial swelling due to gaseous and solid swelling models. These findings underscore the critical importance of pre-test characterization on test and sibling pins to accurately capture steady-state fuel behavior ahead of transient testing, thus establishing a baseline for post-test comparison. Additionally, these analyses identified key data gaps that warrant further investigation to improve the understanding and prediction of fuel swelling, thereby enhancing the synergy between modeling and experimental efforts in supporting accident testing.

BISON↗