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NASA NTRS2014

How Well Do Satellite AOD Observations Represent the Spatial and Temporal Variability of PM2.5 Concentration for the United States?

Due to their extensive spatial coverage, satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) observations have been widely used to estimate and predict surface PM2.5 concentrations. While most previous studies have focused on establishing relationships between collocated, hourly or daily AOD and PM2.5 measurements, in this study, we instead focus on the comparison of the large-scale spatial and temporal variability between satellite AOD and PM2.5 using monthly mean measurements. A newly developed spectral analysis technique e Combined Maximum Covariance Analysis (CMCA) is applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) AOD datasets and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PM2.5 data, in order to extract and compare the dominant modes of variability. Results indicate that AOD and PM2.5 agree well in terms of interannual variability. An overall decrease is found in both AOD and PM2.5 across the United States, with the strongest signal over the eastern US. With respect to seasonality, good agreement is found only for Eastern US, while for Central and Western US, AOD and PM2.5 seasonal cycles are largely different or even reversed. These results are verified using Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD observations and differences between satellite and AERONET are also examined. MODIS and MISR appear to have the best agreement with AERONET. In order to explain the disagreement between AOD and PM2.5 seasonality, we further use Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) extinction profile data to investigate the effect of two possible contributing factors, namely aerosol vertical distribution and cloud-free sampling. We find that seasonal changes in aerosol vertical distribution, due to the seasonally varying mixing height, is the primary cause for the AOD and PM2.5 seasonal discrepancy, in particular, the low AOD but high PM2.5 observed during the winter season for Central and Western US. In addition, cloud-free sampling by passive sensors also induces some bias in AOD seasonality, especially for the Western US, where the largest seasonal change in cloud fraction is found. The seasonal agreement between low level (below 500 m AGL), all sky CALIOP AOD and PM2.5 is significantly better than column AOD from MODIS, MISR, SeaWiFS and OMI. In particular, the correlation between low level, all sky AOD and PM2.5 seasonal cycles increases to above 0.7 for Central and Western US, as opposed to near zero or negative correlation for column, clear sky AOD. This result highlights the importance of accounting for the seasonally varying aerosol profiles and cloud-free sampling bias when using column AOD measurements to infer surface PM2.5 concentrations.

MODIS (radiometry)↗
NASA NTRS2014

Sensitivity of Air Quality to Potential Future Climate Change and Emissions in the United States and Major Cities

Simulated present and future air quality is compared for the years 2006e2010 and 2048e2052 over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Regionally downscaled present and future climate results are developed using GISS and the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Present and future emissions are estimated using MARKAL 9R model. O3 and PM(sub 2.5) sensitivities to precursor emissions for the years 2010 and 2050 are calculated using CMAQDDM (Direct Decoupled Method). We find major improvements in future U.S. air quality including generally decreased MDA8 (maximum daily 8-hr average O3) mixing ratios and PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and reduced frequency of NAAQS O3 standard exceedances in most major U.S. cities. The Eastern and Pacific U.S. experience the largest reductions in summertime seasonal average MDA8 (up to 12 ppb) with localized decreases in the 4th highest MDA8 of the year, decreasing by up to 25 ppb. Results from a Climate Penalty (CP) scenario isolate the impact of climate change on air quality and show that future climate change tends to increase O3 mixing ratios in some regions of the U.S., with climate change causing increases of over 10 ppb in the annual 4th highest MDA8 in Los Angeles. Seasonal average PM(sub 2.5) decreases (2-4 microgram m(exp -3)) over the Eastern U.S. are accounted for by decreases in sulfate and nitrate concentrations resulting from reduced mobile and point source emissions of NO(sub x) and SO(sub x).

Projecting emissions↗
NASA NTRS2014

Aerosol Seasonal Variations over Urban-Industrial Regions in Ukraine According to AERONET and POLDER Measurements

The paper presents an investigation of aerosol seasonal variations in several urban-industrial regions in Ukraine. Our analysis of seasonal variations of optical and physical aerosol parameters is based on the sun-photometer 2008-2013 data from two urban ground-based AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) sites in Ukraine (Kyiv, Lugansk) as well as on satellite POLDER instrument data for urban-industrial areas in Ukraine. We also analyzed the data from one AERONET site in Belarus (Minsk) in order to compare with the Ukrainian sites. Aerosol amount and optical depth (AOD) values in the atmosphere columns over the large urbanized areas like Kyiv and Minsk have maximum values in the spring (April-May) and late summer (August), whereas minimum values are observed in late autumn. The results show that fine-mode particles are most frequently detected during the spring and late summer seasons. The analysis of the seasonal AOD variations over the urban-industrial areas in the eastern and central parts of Ukraine according to both ground-based and POLDER data exhibits the similar traits. The seasonal variation similarity in the regions denotes the resemblance in basic aerosol sources that are closely related to properties of aerosol particles. The behavior of basic aerosol parameters in the western part of Ukraine is different from eastern and central regions and shows an earlier appearance of the spring and summer AOD maxima. Spectral single-scattering albedo, complex refractive index and size distribution of aerosol particles in the atmosphere column over Kyiv have different behavior for warm (April-October) and cold seasons. The seasonal features of fine and coarse aerosol particle behavior over the Kyiv site were analyzed. A prevailing influence of the fine-mode particles on the optical properties of the aerosol layer over the region has been established. The back-trajectory and cluster analysis techniques were applied to study the seasonal back trajectories and prevailing directions of the arrived air mass for the Kyiv and Minsk sites.

Ukraine↗
NASA NTRS2015

Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.

Decker, Ryan K.↗
NASA NTRS2014

NuSTAR Study of Hard X-ray Morphology and Spectroscopy G21.5-0.9

We present NuSTAR high-energy X-ray observations of the pulsar wind nebula (PWN)/supernova remnant G21.5−0.9. We detect integrated emission from the nebula up to approx. 40 keV, and resolve individual spatial features over a broad X-ray band for the first time. The morphology seen by NuSTAR agrees well with that seen by XMM-Newton and Chandra below 10 keV. At high energies, NuSTAR clearly detects non-thermal emission up to approx. 20 keV that extends along the eastern and northern rim of the supernova shell. The broadband images clearly demonstrate that X-ray emission from the North Spur and Eastern Limb results predominantly from non-thermal processes. We detect a break in the spatially integrated X-ray spectrum at approx. 9 keV that cannot be reproduced by current spectral energy distribution models, implying either a more complex electron injection spectrum or an additional process such as diffusion compared to what has been considered in previous work. We use spatially resolved maps to derive an energy-dependent cooling length scale, E(sup m) is directly proportional to L(E) with m = −0.21 plus or minus 0.01. We find this to be inconsistent with the model for the morphological evolution with energy described by Kennel & Coroniti. This value, along with the observed steepening in power-law index between radio and X-ray, can be quantitatively explained as an energy-loss spectral break in the simple scaling model of Reynolds, assuming particle advection dominates over diffusion. This interpretation requires a substantial departure from spherical magnetohydrodynamic, magnetic-flux-conserving outflow, most plausibly in the form of turbulent magnetic-field amplification.

radiation mechanisms↗
NASA NTRS2015

Constraining Black Carbon Aerosol over Asia using OMI Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth and the Adjoint of GEOS-Chem

Accurate estimates of the emissions and distribution of black carbon (BC) in the region referred to here as Southeastern Asia (70degE-l50degE, 11degS-55degN) are critical to studies of the atmospheric environment and climate change. Analysis of modeled BC concentrations compared to in situ observations indicates levels are underestimated over most of Southeast Asia when using any of four different emission inventories. We thus attempt to reduce uncertainties in BC emissions and improve BC model simulations by developing top-down, spatially resolved, estimates of BC emissions through assimilation of OMI observations of aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) with the GEOS-Chem model and its adjoint for April and October of 2006. Overwhelming enhancements, up to 500%, in anthropogenic BC emissions are shown after optimization over broad areas of Southeast Asia in April. In October, the optimization of anthropogenic emissions yields a slight reduction (1-5%) over India and parts of southern China, while emissions increase by 10-50% over eastern China. Observational data from in situ measurements and AERONET observations are used to evaluate the BC inversions and assess the bias between OMI and AERONET AAOD. Low biases in BC concentrations are improved or corrected in most eastern and central sites over China after optimization, while the constrained model still underestimates concentrations in Indian sites in both April and October, possibly as a. consequence of low prior emissions. Model resolution errors may contribute up to a factor of 2.5 to the underestimate of surface BC concentrations over northern India. We also compare the optimized results using different anthropogenic emission inventories and discuss the sensitivity of top-down constraints on anthropogenic emissions with respect to biomass burning emissions. In addition, the impacts of brown carbon, the formulation of the observation operator, and different a priori constraints on the optimization are investigated. Overall, despite these limitations and uncertainties, using OMI AAOD to constrain BC sources improves model representation of BC distributions, particularly over China.

Aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2015

Epidemiologic and Environmental Risk Factors of Rift Valley Fever in Southern Africa from 2008 to 2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have been associated with periods of widespread and above normal rainfall over several months. Knowledge on the environmental factors influencing disease transmission dynamics has provided the basis for developing models to predict RVF outbreaks in Africa. From 2008 to 2011, South Africa experienced the worst wave of RVF outbreaks in almost 40 years. We investigated rainfall associated environmental factors in southern Africa preceding these outbreaks. Methods: RVF epizootic records obtained from the World Animal Health Information Database (WAHID), documenting livestock species affected, location, and time, were analyzed. Environmental variables including rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data were collected and assessed in outbreak regions to understand the underlying drivers of the outbreaks. Results: The predominant domestic vertebrate species affected in 2008 and 2009 were cattle, when outbreaks were concentrated in the eastern provinces of South Africa. In 2010 and 2011, outbreaks occurred in the interior and southern provinces affecting over 16,000 sheep. The highest number of cases occurred between January and April but epidemics occurred in different regions every year, moving from the northeast of South Africa toward the southwest with each progressing year. The outbreaks showed a pattern of increased rainfall preceding epizootics ranging from 9 to 152 days; however, NDVI and rainfall were less correlated with the start of the outbreaks than has been observed in eastern Africa. Conclusions: Analyses of the multiyear RVF outbreaks of 2008 to 2011 in South Africa indicated that rainfall, NDVI, and other environmental and geographical factors, such as land use, drainage, and topography, play a role in disease emergence. Current and future investigations into these factors will be able to contribute to improving spatial accuracy of models to map risk areas, allowing adequate time for preparation and prevention before an outbreak occurs.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF)↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aura OMI Observations of Regional SO2 and NO2 Pollution Changes from 2005 to 2015

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA's Aura satellite has been providing global observations of the ozone layer and key atmospheric pollutant gases, such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), since October 2004. The data products from the same instrument provide consistent spatial and temporal coverage and permit the study of anthropogenic and natural emissions on local-to-global scales. In this paper, we examine changes in SO2 and NO2 over some of the world's most polluted industrialized regions during the first decade of OMI observations. In terms of regional pollution changes, we see both upward and downward trends, sometimes in opposite directions for NO2 and SO2, for different study areas. The trends are, for the most part, associated with economic and/or technological changes in energy use, as well as regional regulatory policies. Over the eastern US, both NO2 and SO2 levels decreased dramatically from 2005 to 2015, by more than 40 and 80 percent, respectively, as a result of both technological improvements and stricter regulations of emissions. OMI confirmed large reductions in SO2 over eastern Europe's largest coal-fired power plants after installation of flue gas desulfurization devices. The North China Plain has the world's most severe SO2 pollution, but a decreasing trend has been observed since 2011, with about a 50 percent reduction in 2012-2015, due to an economic slowdown and government efforts to restrain emissions from the power and industrial sectors. In contrast, India's SO2 and NO2 levels from coal power plants and smelters are growing at a fast pace, increasing by more than 100 and 50 percent, respectively, from 2005 to 2015. Several SO2 hot spots observed over the Persian Gulf are probably related to oil and gas operations and indicate a possible underestimation of emissions from these sources in bottom-up emission inventories. Overall, OMI observations have proved valuable in documenting rapid changes in air quality over different parts of the world during last decade. The baseline established during the first 11 years of OMI is indispensable for the interpretation of air quality measurements from current and future satellite atmospheric composition missions.

SO2 and NO2↗
NASA NTRS2016

Highlights from the 11-Year Record of Tropospheric Ozone from OMI/MLS and Continuation of that Long Record Using OMPS Measurements

Since October 2004 the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) onboard the Aura satellite have provided over 11 years of continuous tropospheric ozone measurements. These OMI/MLS measurements have been used in many studies to evaluate dynamical and photochemical effects caused by ENSO, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and shorter timescales, as well as long-term trends and the effects of deep convection on tropospheric ozone. Given that the OMI and MLS instruments have now extended well beyond their expected lifetimes, our goal is to continue their long record of tropospheric ozone using recent Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) measurements. The OMPS onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership NPP satellite was launched on October 28, 2011 and is comprised of three instruments: the nadir mapper, the nadir profiler, and the limb profiler. Our study combines total column ozone from the OMPS nadir mapper with stratospheric column ozone from the OMPS limb profiler to measure tropospheric ozone residual. The time period for the OMPS measurements is March 2012 present. For the OMPS limb profiler retrievals, the OMPS v2 algorithm from Goddard is tested against the University of Saskatchewan (USask) Algorithm. The retrieved ozone profiles from each of these algorithms are evaluated with ozone profiles from both ozonesondes and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Effects on derived OMPS tropospheric ozone caused by the 2015-2016 El Nino event are highlighted. This recent El Nino produced anomalies in tropospheric ozone throughout the tropical Pacific involving increases of approximately 10 DU over Indonesia and decreases approximately 5-10 DU in the eastern Pacific. These changes in ozone due to El Nino were predominantly dynamically-induced, caused by the eastward shift in sea-surface temperature and convection from the western to the eastern Pacific.

MJO↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aura OMI observations of regional SO2 and NO2 pollution changes from 2005 to 2015

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA's Aura satellite has been providing global observations of the ozone layer and key atmospheric pollutant gases, such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2/ and sulfur dioxide (SO2/, since October 2004. The data products from the same instrument provide consistent spatial and temporal coverage and permit the study of anthropogenic and natural emissions on local-to-global scales. In this paper, we examine changes in SO2 and NO2 over some of the world's most polluted industrialized regions during the first decade of OMI observations. In terms of regional pollution changes, we see both upward and downward trends, sometimes in opposite directions for NO2 and SO2, for different study areas. The trends are, for the most part, associated with economic and/or technological changes in energy use, as well as regional regulatory policies. Over the eastern US, both NO2 and SO2 levels decreased dramatically from 2005 to 2015, by more than 40 and 80 %, respectively, as a result of both technological improvements and stricter regulations of emissions. OMI confirmed large reductions in SO2 over eastern Europe's largest coal-fired power plants after installation of flue gas desulfurization devices. The North China Plain has the world's most severe SO2 pollution, but a decreasing trend has been observed since 2011, with about a 50% reduction in 2012- 2015, due to an economic slowdown and government efforts to restrain emissions from the power and industrial sectors. In contrast, India's SO2 and NO2 levels from coal power plants and smelters are growing at a fast pace, increasing by more than 100 and 50 %, respectively, from 2005 to 2015. Several SO2 hot spots observed over the Persian Gulf are probably related to oil and gas operations and indicate a possible underestimation of emissions from these sources in bottom-up emission inventories. Overall, OMI observations have proved valuable in documenting rapid changes in air quality over different parts of the world during last decade. The baseline established during the first 11 years of OMI is indispensable for the interpretation of air quality measurements from current and future satellite atmospheric composition missions.

Pollution trends↗
NASA NTRS2016

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized "climate penalty" of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5 concentrations.

PM2.5↗
NASA NTRS2016

Assimilation of Gridded GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Estimates in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

The objective of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) is to provide best available estimates of near-surface meteorological conditions and soil hydrological status for the continental United States. To support the ongoing efforts to develop data assimilation (DA) capabilities for NLDAS, the results of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) DA implemented in a manner consistent with NLDAS development are presented. Following previous work, GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly estimates are assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model using an ensemble smoother. In contrast to many earlier GRACE DA studies, a gridded GRACE TWS product is assimilated, spatially distributed GRACE error estimates are accounted for, and the impact that GRACE scaling factors have on assimilation is evaluated. Comparisons with quality-controlled in situ observations indicate that GRACE DA has a positive impact on the simulation of unconfined groundwater variability across the majority of the eastern United States and on the simulation of surface and root zone soil moisture across the country. Smaller improvements are seen in the simulation of snow depth, and the impact of GRACE DA on simulated river discharge and evapotranspiration is regionally variable. The use of GRACE scaling factors during assimilation improved DA results in the western United States but led to small degradations in the eastern United States. The study also found comparable performance between the use of gridded and basin averaged GRACE observations in assimilation. Finally, the evaluations presented in the paper indicate that GRACE DA can be helpful in improving the representation of droughts.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Long-Term Changes/Trends in Surface Temperature and Precipitation During the Satellite Era (1979-2012)

During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 19981999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDOs phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres,even though the PDOs net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well.However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors:anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific,including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDOs contributions.Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.

GPCP↗
NASA NTRS2017

GC13I-0857: Designing a Frost Forecasting Service for Small Scale Tea Farmers in East Africa

Kenya is the third largest tea exporter in the world, producing 10% of the world's black tea. Sixty percent of this production occurs largely by small scale tea holders, with an average farm size of 1.04 acres, and an annual net income of $1,075. According to a recent evaluation, a typical frost event in the tea growing region causes about $200 dollars in losses which can be catastrophic for a small holder farm. A 72-hour frost forecast would provide these small-scale tea farmers with enough notice to reduce losses by approximately 80 USD annually. With this knowledge, SERVIR, a joint NASA-USAID initiative that brings Earth observations for improved decision making in developing countries, sought to design a frost monitoring and forecasting service that would provide farmers with enough lead time to react to and protect against a forecasted frost occurrence on their farm. SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa, through its implementing partner, the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), designed a service that included multiple stakeholder engagement events whereby stakeholders from the tea industry value chain were invited to share their experiences so that the exact needs and flow of information could be identified. This unique event allowed enabled the design of a service that fit the specifications of the stakeholders. The monitoring service component uses the MODIS Land Surface Temperature product to identify frost occurrences in near-real time. The prediction component, currently under testing, uses the 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m wind speed from a series of high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model runs over eastern Kenya as inputs into a frost prediction algorithm. Accuracy and sensitivity of the algorithm is being assessed with observations collected from the farmers using a smart phone app developed specifically to report frost occurrences, and from data shared through our partner network developed at the stakeholder engagement meeting. This presentation will illustrate the efficacy of our frost forecasting algorithm, and a way forward for incorporating these forecasts in a meaningful way to the key decision makers - the small-scale farmers of East Africa.

frost↗
NASA NTRS2017

Stratospheric Instrusion Catalog: A 10-Year Compilation of Events Identified by using TRACK with NASA's MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Stratospheric intrusions "the introduction of ozone-rich stratospheric air into the troposphere" have been linked with surface ozone air quality exceedances, especially at the high elevations in the western USA in springtime. However, the impact of stratospheric intrusions in the remaining seasons and over the rest of the USA is less clear. A new approach to the study of stratospheric intrusions uses NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) model and assimilation products with an objective feature tracking algorithm to investigate the atmospheric dynamics that generate stratospheric intrusions and the different mechanisms through which stratospheric intrusions may influence tropospheric chemistry and surface air quality seasonally over both the western and the eastern USA. A catalog of stratospheric intrusions identified in the MERRA-2 reanalysis was produced for the period 2004-2015 and validated against surface ozone observations (focusing on those which exceed the national air quality standard) and a recent data set of stratospheric intrusion-influenced air quality exceedance flags from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Considering not all ozone exceedances have been flagged by the EPA, a collection of stratospheric intrusions can support air quality agencies for more rapid identification of the impact of stratospheric air on surface ozone and demonstrates that future operational analyses may aid in forecasting such events. An analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of stratospheric intrusions over the continental US was performed, and while the spring over the western USA does exhibit the largest number of stratospheric intrusions affecting the lower troposphere, the number of intrusions in the remaining seasons and over the eastern USA is sizable. By focusing on the major modes of variability that influence weather in the USA, such as the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection index, predicative meteorological patterns associated with stratospheric intrusions and their regional effects on tropospheric ozone were identified. Improved understanding of the connections between large-scale climate variability and local-scale dynamically-driven air quality events may support improved seasonal prediction of such events.

PN↗
NASA NTRS2017

Extreme Storms

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Kossin, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Continuation of Long-Term Global SO2 Pollution Monitoring from OMI to OMPS

Over the past 20 years, advances in satellite remote sensing of pollution-relevant species have made space-borne observations an increasingly important part of atmospheric chemistry research and air quality management. This progress has been facilitated by advanced UV-vis spectrometers, such as the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura satellite, and continues with new instruments, such as the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) on board the NASA-NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite. In this study, we demonstrate that it is possible, using our state-of-the-art principal component analysis (PCA) retrieval technique, to continue the long-term global SO2 pollution monitoring started by OMI with the current and future OMPS instruments that will fly on the NOAA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) 1, 2, 3, and 4 satellites in addition to SNPP, with a very good consistency of retrievals from these instruments. Since OMI SO2 data have been primarily used for (1) providing regional context on air pollution and long-range transport on a daily basis and (2) providing information on point emission sources on an annual basis after data averaging, we focused on these two aspects in our OMI-OMPS comparisons. Four years of retrievals (2012-2015) have been compared for three regions: eastern China, Mexico, and South Africa. In general, the comparisons show relatively high correlations (r = 0. 79-0.96) of daily regional averaged SO2 mass between the two instruments and near-unity regression slopes (0.76-0.97). The annual averaged SO2 loading differences between OMI and OMPS are small (< 0.03 Dobson unit (DU) over South Africa and up to 0.1 DU over eastern China). We also found a very good correlation (r = 0. 92-0.97) in the spatial distribution of annual averaged SO2 between OMI and OMPS over the three regions during 2012-2015. The emissions from ∼ 400 SO2 sources calculated with the two instruments also show a very good correlation (r = ∼ 0.9) in each year during 2012-2015. OMPS-detected SO2 point source emissions are slightly lower than those from OMI, but OMI-OMPS differences decrease with increasing strength of source. The OMI-OMPS SO2 mass differences on a pixel by pixel (daily) basis in each region can show substantial differences. The two instruments have a spatial correlation coefficient of 0.7 or better on < ∼ 50 % of the days. It is worth noting that consistent SO2 retrievals were achieved without any explicit adjustments to OMI or OMPS radiance data and that the retrieval agreement may be further improved by introducing a more comprehensive Jacobian lookup table than is currently used.

satellite remote sensing of pollution↗
NASA NTRS2018

Nasa's Launch Communications Ground Segment for the 21st Century Florida Spaceport

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Network (NEN) Project is implementing a new launch communications ground segment to provide services for the next generation of human and robotic space exploration systems. It will deliver unique and advanced capabilities to accelerate the transformation of Kennedy Space Center into a multi-user spaceport in cooperation with the United States Air Force (USAF). The project has leveraged commercial technologies and remote operations concepts matured in NASAs orbiting satellite ground systems to achieve dramatic lifecycle cost efficiencies as compared to the space shuttle-era ground segment. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the development history, capabilities and anticipated use cases of the NEN Launch Communications Segment (NEN LCS).The NASA Kennedy Space Center is co-located with the USAF Eastern Launch Range at Cape Canaveral, Florida. The USAF operates two launch communications ground stations, but they are not designed to transmit voice, commands or other data to the launch vehicle or astronauts. The bi-directional uplink-downlink communications responsibility for human missions has historically resided with the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. Several market analyses and feasibility studies investigating concepts to provide NASAs next generation launch communications services were performed during the Constellation Program prior to its cancellation in 2009, and as part of the Kennedy Space Centers follow-on efforts to transform itself into a 21st century multi-user spaceport. In 2012, the Kennedy Space Center and the USAF 45th Space Wing jointly led a study to analyze the market needs of current and future launch systems and assess the operational deficiencies of the Eastern Range infrastructure. The study team issued several recommendations, two of which ultimately became driving operational capability requirements for the NEN LCS: increased telemetry data rates of at least 20 Mbps, and S-band uplink capability. Additional capabilities identified in the requirements development process include spread spectrum modulation support, LDPC 12 and 78 error correction codes, support for IRIG-106 and CCSDS data formats, automated best source selection, and Space Link Extension (SLE) services for data distribution. The NEN LCS is comprised of two permanent ground stations, the new Kennedy Uplink Station (KUS) and refurbished Ponce de Leon (PDL) station. Both stations are remotely operated from the Global Monitor and Control Center at Wallops Flight Facility. This core architecture is extensible through host-tenant arrangements with the U.S. Air Force and deployable assets, enabling agile, tailored and robust solutions to meet the needs of civil, commercial or military customers. The NEN LCS has three use cases:1.To provide agile, tailored and robust launch communications solutions to Florida spaceport customers2.To provide orbital communications services to near-earth customers 3.To provide an experimental proving ground for Space Mobile Network concepts and technologies The NEN LCS driving mission is to support the bi-directional link with the Orion crew capsule and two 20 Mbps telemetry links from the Space Launch System core stage on Exploration Mission-1, the first integrated flight of NASAs flagship human exploration systems.

Roberts, Christopher J.↗