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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Thermodynamically Driven Synthetic Optimization for Cation-Disordered Rock Salt Cathodes

Relating the synthesis conditions of materials to their functional performance has long been an experience-based trial-and-error process. However, this methodology is not always efficient in identifying an appropriate protocol and can lead to overlooked opportunities for the performance optimization of materials through simple modifications of the synthesis process. In this work, we systematically track the structural evolution in the synthesis of a representative disordered rocksalt (a promising next-generation Li-ion cathode material) at the scale of both the long-range crystal structure and the short-range atomic structure using various in situ and ex situ techniques, including transmission electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, and pair distribution function analysis. Further, an optimization strategy is proposed for the synthesis protocol, leading to a remarkably enhanced capacity (specific energy) of 313 mAh g –1 (987 Wh kg –1 ) at a low rate (20 mA g –1 ), with a capacity of more than 140 mAh g –1 retained even at a very high cycling rate of 2,000 mA g –1 . This strategy is further rationalized using ab initio calculations, and important opportunities for synthetic optimization demonstrated in this study are highlighted.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporal Studies of Soluble Inorganic Nanostructures with X‐rays and Neutrons

This Review addresses the use of X-ray and neutron scattering as well as X-ray absorption to describe how inorganic nanostructured materials assemble, evolve, and function in solution. We first provide an overview of techniques and instrumentation (both large user facilities and benchtop). We review recent studies of soluble inorganic nanostructure assembly, covering the disciplines of materials synthesis, processes in nature, nuclear materials, and the widely applicable fundamental processes of hydrophobic interactions and ion pairing. Reviewed studies cover size regimes and length scales ranging from sub-Ångström (coordination chemistry and ion pairing) to several nanometers (molecular clusters, i.e. polyoxometalates, polyoxocations, and metal-organic polyhedra), to the mesoscale (supramolecular assembly processes). Reviewed studies predominantly exploit 1) SAXS/WAXS/SANS (small- and wide-angle X-ray or neutron scattering), 2) PDF (pair-distribution function analysis of X-ray total scattering), and 3) XANES and EXAFS (X-ray absorption near-edge structure and extended X-ray absorption fine structure, respectively). While the scattering techniques provide structural information, X-ray absorption yields the oxidation state in addition to the local coordination. Our goal for this Review is to provide information and inspiration for the inorganic/materials science communities that may benefit from elucidating the role of solution speciation in natural and synthetic processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generalized parton distributions through universal moment parameterization: zero skewness case

We present a global analysis program for the generalized parton distributions (GPDs) based on conformal moment expansion. We apply the strategy of universal moment parameterization to fit both the collinear parton distribution functions (PDFs) from phenomenology and generalized form factors from lattice calculations, and show that the parameterization is flexible enough to accommodate these constraints. In addition, we can also fit direct lattice calculations of GPDs from large-momentum effective theory. In this work we focus on the analysis of t-dependent PDFs which correspond to GPDs in the ξ → 0 limit. The strategy also applies to the ξ ≠ 0 region with extra parameters, and therefore can be fitted to experimental observables in the future. With a demonstrative example of fitted GPDs, we exhibit the quark transverse angular momentum densities of the proton as well as the impact parameter space distributions of quarks in both unpolarized and transversely polarized protons.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS RSS-20 POLDER C-130 Measurements of Surface BRDF

This Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Remote Sensing Science (RSS)-20 data set contains measurements of surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) made by the polarization and Directionality of Earth reflectances (POLDER) instrument over several surface types (pine, spruce, fen) of the BOREAS southern study area (SSA) during the 1994 intensive field campaigns (IFCs). Single-point BRDF values were acquired either from the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) C-130 aircraft or from a NASA Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) helicopter. A related data set collected from the helicopter platform is available as is POLDER imagery acquired from the C-130. The data are stored in tabular ASCII files. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884) or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC).

Leroy, Marc↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resilience of the Aurivillius structure upon La and Cr doping in a Bi 5 Ti 3 FeO 15 multiferroic

Here, combining the experimental techniques of high-resolution X-ray diffraction, magnetometry, specific heat measurement, and X-ray photoelectron, Raman and dielectric spectroscopy techniques, we have studied the influence of La and Cr doping on the crystal structure and magnetism of the room temperature Aurivillius multiferroic Bi 5 Ti 3 FeO 15 by investigating the physical properties of (Bi 4 La)Ti 3 FeO 15 and Bi 5 Ti 3 (Fe 0.5 Cr 0.5 )O 15 . The parent (Bi 5 Ti 3 FeO 15 ) and the doped ((Bi 4 La)Ti 3 FeO 15 and Bi 5 Ti 3 (Fe 0.5 Cr 0.5 )O 15 ) compounds crystallize in the A2 1 am space group, which is confirmed through our analysis of high-resolution synchrotron X-ray diffraction data obtained on phase-pure polycrystalline powders. We determined the oxidation states of the metal atoms in the studied compounds as Fe 3+ , Ti 4+ , Cr 3+ , and La 3+ through the analysis of X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy data. The magnetic susceptibilities of the three compounds are marked by the absence of a long-range ordered ground state, but dominated by superparamagnetic clusters with dominant antiferromagnetic interactions. This signature of short-range magnetism is also seen in specific heat as a low temperature enhancement which is suppressed upon the application of external magnetic fields up to 8 T. Our dielectric spectroscopy experiments showed that the three studied compounds display similar features in the dielectric constant measured as a function of frequency. However, upon doping La at the Bi site, the width of the ferroelectric hysteresis loop increases for (Bi 4 La)Ti 3 FeO 15 compared to that of the parent compound Bi 5 Ti 3 FeO 15 , and with Cr doping, Bi 5 Ti 3 (Fe 0.5 Cr 0.5 )O 15 becomes a leaky dielectric. The resilience of the Aurivillius crystal structure towards doping of La at the Bi site and Cr at the Fe site is clearly seen in the bulk properties of magnetic susceptibility, specific heat and the average crystal structure. The relevance of changes in the local structure is evident from our Raman spectroscopy and X-ray pair distribution function studies.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1975

Study of the performance of antennas in magnetized plasmas

The antenna studies were performed in a large magnetized plasma source, a schematic drawing of which is shown. The plasma diagnostics consist of a 70 GHz (4 mm) microwave interferometer for density measurements and of various Langmuir probes for spatially resolved measurements of t sub e, n sub e and the shape of the electron distribution function. All diagnostic data are time-resolved by sample-and-hold techniques so as to yield information about the plasma build-up, the steady-state discharge, and the plasma decay in the afterglow. Whistler waves are excited and detected with various antennas which are inserted into the center of the plasma column through one axial and two orthogonal radial ports. The antennas were tested for their proper dipole response and then calibrated in a known field geometry in air. For the electric dipole, a parallel plate capacitor field was used; the magnetic loop is calibrated in the near-zone field of a long linear conductor of known radio frequency current distribution. Results are presented and discussed.

Stenzel, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Optimizing the Zeldovich approximation

We have recently learned that the Zeldovich approximation can be successfully used for a far wider range of gravitational instability scenarios than formerly proposed; we study here how to extend this range. In previous work (Coles, Melott and Shandarin 1993, hereafter CMS) we studied the accuracy of several analytic approximations to gravitational clustering in the mildly nonlinear regime. We found that what we called the 'truncated Zeldovich approximation' (TZA) was better than any other (except in one case the ordinary Zeldovich approximation) over a wide range from linear to mildly nonlinear (sigma approximately 3) regimes. TZA was specified by setting Fourier amplitudes equal to zero for all wavenumbers greater than k(sub nl), where k(sub nl) marks the transition to the nonlinear regime. Here, we study the cross correlation of generalized TZA with a group of n-body simulations for three shapes of window function: sharp k-truncation (as in CMS), a tophat in coordinate space, or a Gaussian. We also study the variation in the crosscorrelation as a function of initial truncation scale within each type. We find that k-truncation, which was so much better than other things tried in CMS, is the worst of these three window shapes. We find that a Gaussian window e(exp(-k(exp 2)/2k(exp 2, sub G))) applied to the initial Fourier amplitudes is the best choice. It produces a greatly improved crosscorrelation in those cases which most needed improvement, e.g. those with more small-scale power in the initial conditions. The optimum choice of kG for the Gaussian window is (a somewhat spectrum-dependent) 1 to 1.5 times k(sub nl). Although all three windows produce similar power spectra and density distribution functions after application of the Zeldovich approximation, the agreement of the phases of the Fourier components with the n-body simulation is better for the Gaussian window. We therefore ascribe the success of the best-choice Gaussian window to its superior treatment of phases in the nonlinear regime. We also report on the accuracy of particle positions and velocities produced by TZA.

Melott, Adrian L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Orthorhombic Structures as Inorganic Halide Perovskite Models for High-Throughput DFT Investigations

Although high-symmetry Pm-3m space group cubic models are computationally efficient for high-throughput density functional theory (DFT) calculations of inorganic ternary (ABX 3 ) halide perovskites (HPs), they frequently predict band gaps (E g ) that disagree with experiment. Conversely, while low-symmetry cubic polymorphous networks (PN) comprised of 160 to 320 atoms incur significantly greater computational cost, they predict E g ’s that are more closely aligned with experiment. Here, in this study, we compare the DFT total energies and E g ’s predicted by four high-symmetry structure models (Pnma orthorhombic, R3m trigonal, P4/mbm tetragonal, and Pm-3m cubic) to cubic PNs for 5 experimentally characterized ternary HPs and find that the orthorhombic model computes Eg’s with the smallest MAD of 0.23 eV relative to the PNs. Pair distribution functions and DFT-computed total energies show that octahedral tilting, which is present in the 20-atom orthorhombic and 160-atom cubic PN models but not in the 5-atom cubic models, stabilizes all 5 compositions in our benchmarking set. We also find that imposing PN constraints when generating and optimizing these orthorhombic structures by fixing the unit cell lattice vectors and displacing the atoms prior to ionic relaxation with DFT, which we call the orthorhombic surrogate model (OSM), lowers the MAD of E g predictions to 0.09 eV. Our OSM predicts the PN band gaps of an additional 95 theoretical inorganic ternary HPs with MAD of 0.08 eV, supporting its usage in high-throughput DFT investigations to closely estimate PN band gaps with much less computational expense.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2022

Solar Flare Heating with Turbulent Suppression of Thermal Conduction

During solar flares plasma is typically heated to very high temperatures, and the resulting redistribution of energy via thermal conduction is a primary mechanism transporting energy throughout the flaring solar atmosphere. The thermal flux is usually modeled using Spitzer’s theory, which is based on local Coulomb collisions between the electrons carrying the thermal flux and those in the background. However, often during flares, temperature gradients become sufficiently steep that the collisional mean free path exceeds the temperature gradient scale size, so that thermal conduction becomes inherently non-local. Further, turbulent angular scattering, which is detectable in nonthermal widths of atomic emission lines, can also act to increase the collision frequency and so suppress the heat flux. Recent work by Emslie & Bian (2018) extended Spitzer’s theory of thermal conduction to account for both non-locality and turbulent suppression. We have implemented their theoretical expression for the heat flux (which is a convolution of the Spitzer flux with a kernel function) into the RADYN flare-modeling code and performed a parameter study to understand how the resulting changes in thermal conduction affect flare dynamics and hence the radiation produced. We find that models with reduced heat fluxes predict slower bulk flows, less intense line emission, and longer cooling times. By comparing features of atomic emission lines predicted by the models with Doppler velocities and nonthermal line widths deduced from a particular flare observation, we find that models with suppression factors between 0.3 to 0.5 relative to the Spitzer value best reproduce observed Doppmission lines forming over a wide range of temperatures. Interestingly, the model that best matches observed nonthermal line widths has a kappa-type velocity distribution function.

Joel C. Allred↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust Machine Learning Inference from X-ray Absorption Near Edge Spectra through Featurization

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a commonly employed technique for characterizing functional materials. In particular, X-ray absorption near edge spectra (XANES) encode local coordination and electronic information, and machine learning approaches to extract this information are of significant interest. To date, most ML approaches for XANES have primarily focused on using the raw spectral intensities as input, overlooking the potential benefits of incorporating spectral transformations and dimensionality reduction techniques into ML predictions. Here, in this work, we focused on systematically comparing the impact of different featurization methods on the performance of ML models for XAS analysis. We evaluated the classification and regression capabilities of these models on computed data sets and validated their performance on previously unseen experimental data sets. Our analysis revealed an intriguing discovery: the cumulative distribution function feature achieves both high prediction accuracy and exceptional transferability. This remarkably robust performance can be attributed to its tolerance to horizontal shifts in the spectra, which is crucial when validating models using experimental data. While this work exclusively focuses on XANES analysis, we anticipate that the methodology presented here will hold promise as a versatile asset to the broader spectroscopy community.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extraction of the neutron F 2 structure function from inclusive proton and deuteron deep-inelastic scattering data

The available world deep-inelastic scattering (DIS) data on proton and deuteron structure functions F 2 p , F 2 d , and their ratios are leveraged to extract the free neutron F 2 n structure function, the F 2 n / F 2 p ratio, and associated uncertainties using the latest nuclear effect calculations in the deuteron. Special attention is devoted to the normalization of the proton and deuteron experimental datasets and to the treatment of correlated systematic errors, as well as the quantification of procedural and theoretical uncertainties. The extracted F 2 n dataset is utilized to evaluate the Q 2 dependence of the Gottfried sum rule and the nonsinglet F 2 p − F 2 n moments. To facilitate replication of our study, as well as for general applications, we provide a comprehensive DIS database including all recent Jefferson Lab 6 GeV measurements, the extracted F n 2 , a modified CTEQ-JLab global parton distribution function fit named CJ15nlo_mod, and grids with calculated proton, neutron, and deuteron DIS structure functions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2017

Suomi NPP VIIRS Solar Diffuser Screen Transmittance Model and Its Applications

The visible infrared imaging radiometer suite on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite calibrates its reflective solar bands through observations of a sunlit solar diffuser (SD) panel. Sunlight passes through a perforated plate, referred to as the SD screen, before reaching the SD. It is critical to know whether the SD screen transmittance measured prelaunch is accurate. Several factors such as misalignments of the SD panel and the measurement apparatus could lead to errors in the measured transmittance and thus adversely impact on-orbit calibration quality through the SD. We develop a mathematical model to describe the transmittance as a function of the angles that incident light makes with the SD screen, and apply the model to fit the prelaunch measured transmittance. The results reveal that the model does not reproduce the measured transmittance unless the size of the apertures in the SD screen is quite different from the design value. We attribute the difference to the orientation alignment errors for the SD panel and the measurement apparatus. We model the alignment errors and apply our transmittance model to fit the prelaunch transmittance to retrieve the "true" transmittance. To use this model correctly, we also examine the finite source size effect on the transmittance. Furthermore, we compare the product of the retrieved "true" transmittance and the prelaunch SD bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) value to the value derived from on-orbit data to determine whether the prelaunch SD BRDF value is relatively accurate. The model is significant in that it can evaluate whether the SD screen transmittance measured prelaunch is accurate and help retrieve the true transmittance from the transmittance with measurement errors, consequently resulting in a more accurate sensor data product by the same amount.

sensors↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of beauty production via non-prompt charm hadrons in p–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The production cross sections of D 0 , D + , and Λ$^{+}_{c}$ hadrons originating from beauty-hadron decays (i.e. non-prompt) were measured for the first time at midrapidity in proton–lead (p–Pb) collisions at the center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV. Nuclear modification factors (R pPb ) of non-prompt D 0 , D + , and Λ$^{+}_{c}$ are calculated as a function of the transverse momentum (p T ) to investigate the modification of the momentum spectra measured in p–Pb collisions with respect to those measured in proton–proton (pp) collisions at the same energy. The R pPb measurements are compatible with unity and with the measurements in the prompt charm sector, and do not show a significant p T dependence. The p T -integrated cross sections and p T -integrated R pPb of non-prompt D 0 and D + mesons are also computed by extrapolating the visible cross sections down to p T = 0. The non-prompt D-meson R pPb integrated over p T is compatible with unity and with model calculations implementing modification of the parton distribution functions of nucleons bound in nuclei with respect to free nucleons. The non-prompt Λ$^{+}_{c}$/D 0 and D + /D 0 production ratios are computed to investigate hadronisation mechanisms of beauty quarks into mesons and baryons. The measured ratios as a function of p T display a similar trend to that measured for charm hadrons in the same collision system.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2022

Solar Flare Heating with Turbulent Suppression of Thermal Conduction

During solar flares plasma is typically heated to very high temperatures, and the resulting redistribution of energy via thermal conduction is a primary mechanism transporting energy throughout the flaring solar atmosphere. The thermal flux is usually modeled using Spitzer’s theory, which is based on local Coulomb collisions between the electrons carrying the thermal flux and those in the background. However, often during flares, temperature gradients become sufficiently steep that the collisional mean free path exceeds the temperature gradient scale size, so that thermal conduction becomes inherently non-local. Further, turbulent angular scattering, which is detectable in nonthermal widths of atomic emission lines, can also act to increase the collision frequency and so suppress the heat flux. Recent work by Emslie & Bian (2018) extended Spitzer’s theory of thermal conduction to account for both non-locality and turbulent suppression. We have implemented their theoretical expression for the heat flux (which is a convolution of the Spitzer flux with a kernel function) into the RADYN flare-modeling code and performed a parameter study to understand how the resulting changes in thermal conduction affect flare dynamics and hence the radiation produced. We find that models with reduced heat fluxes predict slower bulk flows, less intense line emission, and longer cooling times. By comparing features of atomic emission lines predicted by the models with Doppler velocities and nonthermal line widths deduced from a particular flare observation, we find that models with suppression factors between 0.3 to 0.5 relative to the Spitzer value best reproduce observed Doppler velocities across emission lines forming over a wide range of temperatures. Interestingly, the model that best matches observed nonthermal line widths has a kappa-type velocity distribution function

Solar flares↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Information Length Concept Applied to Plasma Turbulence

A methodology to study statistical properties of anomalous transport in fusion plasma is investigated. Three time traces generated by the full-f gyrokinetic code GKNET are analyzed for this purpose. The time traces consist of heat flux as a function of the radial position, which is studied in a novel manner using statistical methods. The simulation data exhibit transport processes with both medium and long correlation length along the radius. A typical example of a phenomenon with long correlation length is avalanches. In order to investigate the evolution of the turbulent state, two basic configurations are studied, one flux-driven and one gradient-driven with decaying turbulence. The information length concept in tandem with Boltzmann–Gibbs and Tsallis entropy is used in the investigation. It is found that the dynamical states in both flux-driven and gradient-driven cases are surprisingly similar, but the Tsallis entropy reveals differences between them. This indicates that the types of probability distribution function are nevertheless quite different since the higher moments are significantly different.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

The microscopic state of the solar wind: Links between composition, velocity distributions, waves and turbulence

An overview is given of the microscopic state of the solar wind with emphasis on recent Ulysses high-latitude observations and previous Helios in-ecliptic observations. The possible links between composition, ionization state. velocity distribution functions of electrons, protons and heavy ions. kinetic plasma waves and MHD-scale turbulence are elaborated. Emphasis is placed on a connection of interplanetary kinetic-scale phenomena with their generating microscopic processes in the corona. The fast streams seem to consist of mesoscale pressure-balanced plasma filaments and magnetic flux tubes, reminiscent of the supergranular-size structures building the open corona, from which copious Alfven waves emanate. The wind from the magnetically structured and active corona shows developed compressive turbulence and considerable abundance and ionization state variations. Some modelling attempts to explain the observed element fractionation are briefly reviewed. The causes of the nonthermal particle features. such as proton-ion differential streaming, ion beams. temperature anisotropies, and skewed distributions associated with collisionless heat conduction, are ultimately to be searched in the fact, that the corona is never quiescent but fundamentally variable in space and time. Consequently, the radial evolution of the internal state of the wind resembles at all latitudes a complicated relaxation process, in the course of which the free (in comparison with LTE conditions) particle kinetic energy is converted into plasma waves and MHD turbulence on a wide range of scales. This leads to intermittent wave-particle interactions and unsteady anomalous transport, mixed with the weak effects of the rare Coulomb collisions. Spherical expansion and large-scale inhomogeneity forces the wind to attain microscopically a complex internal state of dynamic statistical equilibrium.

Marsch, E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing iodine adsorption in functionalized metal-organic frameworks via an unprecedented positional isomerism strategy

Porous metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) have emerged as highly promising adsorbents for capturing radioiodine, a predominant fission product released during nuclear fuel reprocessing. However, systematic investigations into the correlation between MOF structure and iodine uptake capacity remain scarce. Here, we present a novel approach to enhance the iodine adsorption capacity of MOFs by optimizing linker functionalization. Using ligand-functionalized thorium-based MOFs as a structural platform, we demonstrate that ortho-amino-substitution near the node of the dicarboxylate linker significantly increases iodine adsorption capacity compared to meta-amino-substitution, where the amino groups are directed away from the node. Specifically, ortho-substituted Th-UiO-68-3,3”-(NH 2 ) 2 exhibits higher iodine uptake capacities than the meta-substituted Th-UiO-68-2,2”-(NH 2 ) 2 via both vapor diffusion-based (2.042 vs. 1.087 g/g) and solution-based (0.841 vs. 0.784 g/g) processes. Notably, the I 2 vapor adsorption capacity (2.042 g/g) of Th-UiO-68-3,3”-(NH 2 ) 2 represents the second highest among all reported Th-MOFs. Pair distribution function (PDF) studies reveal that the superior iodine uptake performance of ortho-functionalized MOFs can be attributed to the reduced steric hindrance of the amino groups compared with the meta-substituted variants. Finally, this research highlights how positional isomerism and its subtle alterations can significantly influence host–guest interactions, extending beyond simple structural considerations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2009

Lunar Outpost Life Support Architecture Study Based on a High Mobility Exploration Scenario

As scenarios for lunar surface exploration and habitation continue to evolve within NASA s Constellation program, so must studies of optimal life support system architectures and technologies. This paper presents results of a life support architecture study based on a 2009 NASA scenario known as Scenario 12. Scenario 12 represents a consolidation of ideas from earlier NASA scenarios and includes an outpost near the Lunar South Pole comprised of three larger fixed surface elements and four attached pressurized rovers. The scenario places a high emphasis on surface mobility, with planning assuming that all four crewmembers spend roughly 50% of the time away from the outpost on 3-14 day excursions in two of the pressurized rovers. Some of the larger elements can also be mobilized for longer duration excursions. This emphasis on mobility poses a significant challenge for a regenerative life support system in terms of cost-effective waste collection and resource recovery across multiple elements, including rovers with very constrained infrastructure resources. The current study considers pressurized rovers as part of a distributed outpost life support architecture in both stand-alone and integrated configurations. A range of architectures are examined reflecting different levels of closure and distributed functionality. Different lander propellant scavenging options are also considered involving either initial conversion of residual oxygen and hydrogen propellants to water or initial direct oxygen scavenging. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the sensitivity of results to volatile high-impact mission variables, including the quantity of residual lander propellants available for scavenging, the fraction of crew time away from the outpost on excursions, total extravehicular activity hours, and habitat leakage. Architectures are evaluated by estimating surpluses or deficits of water and oxygen per 180-day mission and differences in fixed and 10-year-total equivalent system mass (ESM) relative to a reference case. Results are presented based on current assumptions for Scenario 12 and based on Monte Carlo simulations with assumed probability distributions for the high-impact mission variables. The calculated probability of no water or oxygen resupply from Monte Carlo simulations provides a quantitative measure of system robustness that can be used for cost/benefit analyses to identify leading architecture candidates. Areas of technology improvement that are likely to have a significant impact are also suggested.

Lange, Kevin E.↗