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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hybrid Approaches to Systems Health Management and Prognostics

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision making. In principle, data driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for an effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.

Systems Health Management↗

NASA NTRS2022

Hybrid Model Based Approaches for Systems Health Management and Prognostics

This is a previously approved and published presentation. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Present achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. In principle, data-driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data-driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety-critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.

Prognostics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid feature-driven learning system for abnormality detection and localization

A cyber-physical system may have a plurality of monitoring nodes each generating a series of current monitoring node values over time representing current operation of the system. A data-driven features extraction computer platform may receive the series of current monitoring node values and generate current data-driven feature vectors based on the series of current monitoring node values. A residual features extraction computer platform may receive the series of current monitoring node values, execute a system model and utilize a stochastic filter to determine current residual values, and generate current residual-driven feature vectors based on the current residual values. An abnormal detection platform may then receive the current data-driven and residual-driven feature vectors and compare the current data-driven and residual-driven feature vectors with at least one decision boundary associated with an abnormal detection model. An abnormal alert signal may then be transmitted when appropriate based on a result of said comparison.

Abbaszadeh, Masoud↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

FluxSat: Long-term Earth Science Data Record (ESDR) for Terrestrial Gross Primary Production (GPP) based on satellite data calibrated with eddy covariance data

Gross primary production (GPP), the amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) assimilated by plants through photosynthesis, is one of the most variable and uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Global GPP has been estimated with a number of process-based models, data-driven, and hybrid approaches. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), driven by observed environmental changes, are used for global carbon budget assessments and long-term (climate) prediction. Benchmarking these and other models globally with data-driven GPP estimates is critical for understanding the land sink and ensuring accurate forecasts of the carbon cycle. In addition, global data-driven GPP estimates are crucial for studies of interannual variability, including trends that are linked to mechanisms with large uncertainties, such as the indirect CO 2 fertilization effect related to greening. In response to a community need for a GPP data set that well captures spatio-temporal variability, we developed FluxSat, a data-driven approach that optimizes the use of satellite reflectance data from the NASA MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites, calibrated using ground-based eddy covariance (EC) data. We are enhancing (spatially, higher resolution) and extending FluxSat (in time, with additional sensors) to create a high quality long term GPP Earth System Data Record (ESDR) for use in model benchmarking, carbon cycle modeling, and studies of trends and interannual variability. Our team’s objectives are to: 1. Update and document the current MODIS FluxSat GPP (daily, 0.05o and 0.5o resolutions) products with latest available MODIS and EC data sets; 2. Extend FluxSat GPP record forward in time with the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on operational weather satellites going forward; 3. Extend FluxSat GPP record backward in time using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on weather satellites dating back to 1981; 4. Provide higher spatial resolution MODIS and VIIRS GPP (0.0083o). 5. Thoroughly evaluate all FluxSat products with independent data; and 6. Create a homogenized long-term GPP record spanning 40+ years. We will discuss plans for this long-term data set that is supported through the NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) program.

gross Primary Production↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reynolds-Averaged Turbulence Modeling Using Deep Learning with Local Flow Features: An Empirical Approach

Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stoke (RANS) models offer an alternative avenue in predicting flow characteristics when the corresponding experiments are difficult to achieve due to geometry complexity, limited budget, or knowledge. RANS models require the knowledge of subgrid scale physics to solve conservation equations for mass, energy, and momentum. Mechanistic turbulence models, such as k-epsilon, are generally evaluated and calibrated for specific flow conditions with various degrees of uncertainty. These models have limited capability to assimilate a substantial amount of data due to model form constraints. Meanwhile, deep learning (DL) has been proven to be universal approximators with the potential to assimilate available, relevant, and adequately evaluated data. Moreover, deep neural networks (DNNs) can create surrogate models without knowing function forms. Such a data-driven approach can be used in updating fluid models based on observations as opposed to hard-wiring models with precalibrated correlations. The paper presents progress in applying DNNs to model Reynolds stress using two machine learning (ML) frameworks. A novel flow feature coverage mapping is proposed to quantify the physics coverage of DL-based closures. It can be used to examine the sufficiency of training data and input flow features for data-driven turbulence models. The case of a backward-facing step is formulated to demonstrate that not only can DNNs discover underlying correlation behind fluid data but also they can be implemented in RANS to predict flow characteristics without numerical stability issues. Finally, the presented research is a crucial stepping-stone toward the data-driven turbulence modeling, which potentially benefits the design of data-driven experiments that can be used to validate fluid models with ML-based fluid closures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modelling urban-scale occupant behaviour, mobility, and energy in buildings: A survey

The proliferation of urban sensing, IoT, and big data in cities provides unprecedented opportunities for a deeper understanding of occupant behaviour and energy usage patterns at the urban scale. This enables data-driven building and energy models to capture the urban dynamics, specifically the intrinsic occupant and energy use behavioural profiles that are not usually considered in traditional models. Although there are related reviews, none have investigated urban data for use in modelling occupant behaviour and energy use at multiple scales, from buildings to neighbourhood to city. This survey paper aims to fill this gap by providing a critical summary and analysis of the works reported in the literature. We present the different sources of occupant-centric urban data that are useful for data-driven modelling and categorise the range of applications and recent data-driven modelling techniques for urban behaviour and energy modelling, along with the traditional stochastic and simulation-based approaches. Finally, we present a set of recommendations for future directions in data-driven modelling of occupant behaviour and energy in buildings at the urban scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-fidelity information fusion with concatenated neural networks

Recently, computational modeling has shifted towards the use of statistical inference, deep learning, and other data-driven modeling frameworks. Although this shift in modeling holds promise in many applications like design optimization and real-time control by lowering the computational burden, training deep learning models needs a huge amount of data. This big data is not always available for scientific problems and leads to poorly generalizable data-driven models. This gap can be furnished by leveraging information from physics-based models. Exploiting prior knowledge about the problem at hand, this study puts forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) approach to build more tailored, effective, and efficient surrogate models. For our analysis, without losing its generalizability and modularity, we focus on the development of predictive models for laminar and turbulent boundary layer flows. In particular, we combine the self-similarity solution and power-law velocity profile (low-fidelity models) with the noisy data obtained either from experiments or computational fluid dynamics simulations (high-fidelity models) through a concatenated neural network. We illustrate how the knowledge from these simplified models results in reducing uncertainties associated with deep learning models applied to boundary layer flow prediction problems. The proposed multi-fidelity information fusion framework produces physically consistent models that attempt to achieve better generalization than data-driven models obtained purely based on data. While we demonstrate our framework for a problem relevant to fluid mechanics, its workflow and principles can be adopted for many scientific problems where empirical, analytical, or simplified models are prevalent. In line with grand demands in novel PGML principles, this work builds a bridge between extensive physics-based theories and data-driven modeling paradigms and paves the way for using hybrid physics and machine learning modeling approaches for next-generation digital twin technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Intelligent Prediction of States in Multi-port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar power plant (MARS)

In power electronics, prediction of states may be used for identification of faults, determination of aging of components, identification of bad data measurements, among others. Prediction of states in power electronics have broadly been based on: (a) physics-based models, (b) data-driven models, and (c) hybrid models. In this paper, data-driven approaches are presented for intelligent prediction of states in multi-port autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS) and compared. The data-set needed to train the data-driven models based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms has been identified and the trained models are evaluated under different extrapolated normal and abnormal operating conditions. The AI algorithms include nonlinear auto-regressive exogenous model (NARX), spiking neural networks (SNN), and decision tree. The models are compared and contrasted. The best model (NARX) is evaluated under different normal and abnormal operating conditions that have indicated accurate prediction.

Debnath, Suman↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards a Robust Adaptive Digital Twin for Fusion Applications

The development of a digital twin system for fusion applications is essential for enhancing the prediction, analysis, and optimization of complex plasma processes. Machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning has demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling such highly nonlinear and intricate systems. However, two critical challenges limit the deployment of deep learning-based digital twins: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and data drift. UQ is vital for ensuring trustworthy predictions, especially in decision-support scenarios. Additionally, data-driven models are often sensitive to changes in the underlying data distribution, such as shot-to-shot variations in fusion experiments, which can lead to performance degradation over time. To address these challenges, we are developing an uncertainty-aware, adaptive digital twin framework. Our approach incorporates deep learning models enhanced with Gaussian Process approximations for predictive uncertainty estimation, coupled with an online learning mechanism that enables continuous model adaptation to new experimental data. This adaptive capability allows the data driven models to respond effectively to evolving plasma behaviors and equipment conditions. Specifically, to mitigate the effects of shot-to-shot drift, our system updates itself incrementally as new data becomes available, improving both robustness and fidelity. Our vision is to evolve this data driven model into a self-sustaining digital twin system that leverages UQ based feedback to continuously refine itself and potentially support real-time decision making. This presentation will cover a brief background on uncertainty quantification for ML, our ongoing effort on development of UQ capabilities for ML, our data science pipeline from data collection to model development and analysis and online learning framework for modeling coil deflection at DIII-D. I will also briefly touch upon opportunities and challenges in development of digital twin framework.

Sammuli, Brian [General Atomics]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Black and gray box learning of amplitude equations: Application to phase field systems

Here, we present a data-driven approach to learning surrogate models for amplitude equations and illustrate its application to interfacial dynamics of phase field systems. In particular, we demonstrate learning effective partial differential equations describing the evolution of phase field interfaces from full phase field data. We illustrate this on a model phase field system, where analytical approximate equations for the dynamics of the phase field interface (a higher-order eikonal equation and its approximation, the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation) are known. For this system, we discuss data-driven approaches for the identification of equations that accurately describe the front interface dynamics. When the analytical approximate models mentioned above become inaccurate, as we move beyond the region of validity of the underlying assumptions, the data-driven equations outperform them. In these regimes, going beyond black box identification, we explore different approaches to learning data-driven corrections to the analytically approximate models, leading to effective gray box partial differential equations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Setup and Learning-Based AI Model for Developing Accurate PV Inverter Models

The integration of power electronics-based interfaces presents challenges due to the absence of detailed models and the high computational complexity. Generic models used in system studies lack accuracy in capturing converter dynamics. This paper proposes a data-driven approach developed from experimental setup data. This approach enhances accuracy in photovoltaic inverter modeling. We used two types of PV inverters in the experiment. The recorded experimental data undergo processing through a machine learning model. Results from the model trained through machine learning is also presented.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2021

Kimberlina 1.2 Velocity Models and Seismic Data

Kimberlina 1.2 Velocity model and synthetic seismic data, produced in collaboration of teams at the National Energy Technology Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory through the National Risk Assessment Partnership. Data is associated with the following publication: Zheng Zhou, Youzuo Lin, Zhongping Zhang, Yue Wu, Zan Wang, Robert Dilmore, and George Guthrie, "A Data-Driven CO2 Leakage Detection Using Seismic Data and Spatial-Temporal Densely Connected Convolutional Neural Networks," International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol 90, 2019. The Kimberlina 1.2 Velocity models were produced by Zan Wang, Robert Dilmore, William Harbert, and Lianjie Huang at NETL. The following citations are directly related to the creation of the velocity models: Wang, Z. Harbert, W., Dilmore, R., Huang, L. Modeling of time-lapse seismic monitoring using CO2 leakage simulations for a model CO2 storage site with realistic geology: Application in assessment of early leak-detection capabilities. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. V. 76, September 2018, Pages 39-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2018.06.011 Wang, Z., Dilmore, R., Harbert, W. Inferring CO2 saturation from synthetic surface seismic and downhole monitoring data using machine learning for leakage detection at CO2 sequestration sites. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, V. 100, September 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2020.103115 The velocity models were built based on the Kimberlina 1.2 aquifer impact data which is associated with the following publications: Buscheck, T.A., Mansoor, K., Yang, X., Wainwright, H., and Carroll, S. (2019). Downhole pressure and chemical monitoring for CO2 and brine leak detection in aquifers above a CO2 storage reservoir. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. 91. 102812. 10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.102812. Xianjin Yang, Thomas A. Buscheck, Kayyum Mansoor, Zan Wang, Kai Gao, Lianjie Huang, Delphine Appriou, Susan A. Carroll, Assessment of geophysical monitoring methods for detection of brine and CO2 leakage in drinking water aquifers, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Volume 90, 2019, 102803, ISSN 1750-5836, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.102803 The synthetic seismic data was produced by Youzuo Lin and team at LANL, and are associated with the following citations: Jordan, P. D., and J. L. Wagoner. Characterizing Construction of Existing Wells to a CO2 Storage Target: The Kimberlina Site, California. Zheng Zhou, Youzuo Lin, Zhongping Zhang, Yue Wu, Zan Wang, Robert Dilmore, and George Guthrie, "A Data-Driven CO2 Leakage Detection Using Seismic Data and Spatial-Temporal Densely Connected Convolutional Neural Networks," International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol 90, 2019.

CO2 Leakage↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital twin framework for PIP-II linac: AI-driven multi-scale modeling from ion source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II superconducting linac at Fermilab is designed to deliver multi-megawatt proton beams for neutrino physics and other high-intensity applications. To expedite commissioning and enhance operational reliability, we have developed an EPICS-based data flow framework that seamlessly integrates digital twins (DT) with physical twins (PT). These digital twins comprise high-fidelity beam dynamics models or data-driven surrogate models connected to their physical counterparts through real-time diagnostics and advanced machine-learning algorithms.Central to this framework is Linac_Gen, an accelerated simulation tool that incorporates convolutional neural networks, random forests, and genetic algorithms to provide up to a tenfold speedup in optimizing the accelerator geometry model. An EPICS translator layer ensures interoperability by efficiently mapping lattice parameters across diverse simulation platforms.Our EPICS-based framework supports multiple operational modes—monitoring, passive learning, closed-loop control, and online learning—covering the entire machine lifecycle. By leveraging HPC resources and multi-objective optimization techniques, the digital twin enables adaptive trajectory correction, real-time fault detection, and predictive modeling of beam stability. This comprehensive approach paves the way for robust, high-intensity operation and data-driven accelerator R&D at Fermilab.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utilization of an Advanced Sensor network to determine fuel heating value and Real-Time net unit heat rate during transient operation

Coal-fired utility boilers are being increasingly used as variable electricity generation to resolve the imbalance in the energy market from the expansion of intermittent renewable energy. The frequent transient operation required to meet residual energy demand has created a challenge for coal-fired units to operate efficiently. This work utilizes an advanced sensor network (ASN) to calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) of a coal-fired boiler in real time through combustion calculations and statistical correlations to provide the tools for optimizing dynamic operation. Real-time heating values that were necessary to determine fuel input energy to calculate accurate NUHR were found using both fundamental and data-driven methods. Real-time NUHR shows distinct shifts that reflect changes in process conditions that will improve the ability to optimize transient operation. Data-driven heating value correlations had 24% lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the fundamental combustion calculation approach when compared to daily retrospective proximate analysis. Furthermore, the data-driven method RMSE improved by 7% with the inclusion of ASN data. Future work is to validate by comparing unit performance with and without the inclusion of NUHR as a control parameter for the dynamic neural network.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progress Towards Interpretable Machine Learning-based Disruption Predictors Across Tokamaks

In this paper we lay the groundwork for a robust cross-device comparison of data-driven disruption prediction algorithms on DIII-D and JET tokamaks. In order to consistently carry on a comparative analysis, we define physics-based indicators of disruption precursors based on temperature, density, and radiation profiles that are currently missing for DIII-D data. These profile-based indicators are shown to well-describe impurity accumulation events in both DIII-D and JET discharges that eventually disrupt. Thanks to the univariate analysis on the features used in such data-driven applications on both tokamaks, we are able to statistically highlight differences in the dominant disruption precursors: JET with its ITER-like wall is more prone to impurity accumulation events, while DIII-D is more subject to edge cooling mechanisms that destabilize dangerous MHD modes. Even though the analyzed datasets are characterized by such intrinsic differences, we show how data-driven algorithms trained on one device can be used to predict and interpret disruptive scenarios on the other. As long as the destabilizing precursors are diagnosed in a device-independent way, the knowledge that data-driven algorithms learn on one device can be used to explain a disruptive behavior on another device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A large-scale benchmarking of deterministic and stochastic derivative-free optimization algorithms

This presentation summarizes our work in the PrOMMiS project on benchmarking of data-driven optimization algorithms and their applications in self-driving laboratories. This work supports the broader project goal of accelerating the identification of promising separation methods and operating conditions for critical minerals separation processes. We present a systematic benchmarking study of 42 data-driven optimization algorithms on a broad collection of 502 test problems. The results identify BAM, GLCCLUSTER, and MULTIMIN as the most effective optimization solvers, with BAM showing the highest overall performance and solving more than 80% of the benchmark problems. The study also shows that no single solver consistently outperforms the others across all problem types, indicating that our future laboratory applications may benefit from using a small set of strong solvers rather than relying on a single method. The presentation also illustrates an in-silico chemical reactor case study showing that data-driven optimization methods can guide autonomous experimentation in a self-driving laboratory and identify optimal operating conditions within a small number of experiments. Overall, the results provide a basis for selecting efficient optimization methods and demonstrate the practical use of data-driven optimization in self-driving laboratory workflows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Algorithm-guided experimentation for autonomous AI systems in self-driving laboratories

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗