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At least 1,441 records · Page 80

Structuring Nutrient Yields throughout Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Using Machine Learning Approaches

To minimize the eutrophication pressure along the Gulf of Mexico or reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico, it is important to understand the underlying temporal and spatial variations and correlations in excess nutrient loads, which are strongly associated with the formation of hypoxia. This study’s objective was to reveal and visualize structures in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yield distributions throughout the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). For this purpose, the annual mean nutrient concentrations were collected from thirty-three US Geological Survey (USGS) water stations scattered in the upper and lower MARB from 1996 to 2020. Eight surface water quality indicators were selected to make comparisons among water stations along the MARB over the past two decades. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to comprehensively evaluate the nutrient yields across thirty-three USGS monitoring stations and identify the major contributing nutrient loads. The results showed that all samples could be analyzed using two main components, which accounted for 81.6% of the total variance. The PCA results showed that yields of orthophosphate (OP), silica (SI), nitrate–nitrites (NO 3 -NO 2 ), and total suspended sediment (TSS) are major contributors to nutrient yields. It also showed that land-planted crops, density of population, domestic and industrial discharges, and precipitation are fundamental causes of excess nutrient loads in MARB. These factors are of great significance for the excess nutrient load management and pollution control of the Mississippi River. It was found that the average nutrient yields were stable within the sub-MARB area, but the large nitrogen yields in the upper MARB and the large phosphorus yields in the lower MARB were of great concern. t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) revealed interesting nonlinear and local structures in nutrient yield distributions. Clustering analysis (CA) showed the detailed development of similarities in the nutrient yield distribution. Moreover, PCA, t-SNE, and CA showed consistent clustering results. This study demonstrated that the integration of dimension reduction techniques, PCA, and t-SNE with CA techniques in machine learning are effective tools for the visualization of the structures of the correlations in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yields and provide a comprehensive understanding of the correlations in the distributions of nutrient loads across the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In situ high-temperature Raman spectroscopy for online EAF slag analysis

Real-time monitoring of slag chemistry is critical for optimizing Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking operations, where dynamic variations in slag composition directly influence slag foaming, refractory degradation, and thermal efficiency. Conventional techniques such as X-ray fluorescence (XRF), Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), and scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) are commonly used to analyze slag composition, but their offline nature and equipment constraints limit their applicability for online monitoring in harsh industrial environments. To address this challenge, we present an in situ, high-temperature analytical approach that integrates Raman spectroscopy with a custom designed fiber-optic probe for real-time slag characterization at 1550 °C. The system enables non destructive spectral acquisition from molten slags, providing molecular-level insights into silicate polymerization and iron oxidation states. Eight synthetic slag samples were evaluated, and key Raman features—such as Q n silicate units and FeO₄/FeO₆ coordination environments—were identified and quantitatively correlated with slag basicity and Fe₂O₃ content. The results demonstrate agreement between Raman spectral ratios and bulk slag chemistry, validating the method’s capability to track compositional and structural changes under molten temperature. This work establishes the feasibility of deploying fiber-optic Raman probe for online EAF slag monitoring and highlights their potential to support closed-loop control strategies, thereby enhancing process stability, refractory protection, and steel quality in industrial steelmaking applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Molecular scale insight of pore morphology relation with mechanical properties of amorphous silica using ReaxFF

Porous materials are typically heterogeneous and they contain large variations of micro-/nano-pore structures, causing complicated behaviors. In continuum models, most mechanical properties of porous materials are estimated based on porosity, while the variations of micro/nano structures are ignored. That could be problematic as the microscopic heterogeneity may affect the mechanical response of porous materials. Thus, understanding micro/nano heterogeneity impact has been the focus in many scientific and engineering subjects. In the present study, we investigated the effect of nanopore structure (including pore shape and orientation) as well as porosity on mechanical properties of amorphous silica (a-SiO 2 ). The pore sizes in our simulations are comparable to the corresponding ones observed in a-SiO 2 based materials. We found that the existing of nanopores strongly influences Young’s modulus (E) and critical energy release rate (G IC ). These properties decrease with increasing porosity. Importantly, the impact of nanopores was characterized by structural parameters of porous materials. In addition to dependency on porosity, Young’s modulus also was found to vary as a function of potential energy per atom, which highly depends on nanopore shape. Furthermore, critical energy release rate was found to increase with increasing ligament length (also known as pore wall thickness). Finally, the results highlighted the importance of nanopore structures, which must be taken into account when studying fracture mechanisms in porous materials. Based on our findings, it was proposed that mechanical properties of porous materials can be controlled by nano-engineering pore structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Functional capacities of microbial communities to carry out large scale geochemical processes are maintained during ex situ anaerobic incubation

Mechanisms controlling CO 2 and CH 4 production in wetlands are central to understanding carbon cycling and greenhouse gas exchange. However, the volatility of these respiration products complicates quantifying their rates of production in the field. Attempts to circumvent the challenges through closed system incubations, from which gases cannot escape, have been used to investigate bulk in situ geochemistry. Efforts towards mapping mechanistic linkages between geochemistry and microbiology have raised concern regarding sampling and incubation-induced perturbations. Microorganisms are impacted by oxygen exposure, increased temperatures and accumulation of metabolic products during handling, storage, and incubation. We probed the extent of these perturbations, and their influence on incubation results, using high-resolution geochemical and microbial gene-based community profiling of anaerobically incubated material from three wetland habitats across a permafrost peatland. We compared the original field samples to the material anaerobically incubated over 50 days. Bulk geochemistry and phylum-level microbiota in incubations largely reflected field observations, but divergence between field and incubations occurred in both geochemistry and lineage-level microbial composition when examined at closer resolution. Despite the changes in representative lineages over time, inferred metabolic function with regards to carbon cycling largely reproduced field results suggesting functional consistency. Habitat differences among the source materials remained the largest driver of variation in geochemical and microbial differences among the samples in both incubations and field results. While incubations may have limited usefulness for identifying specific mechanisms, they remain a viable tool for probing bulk-scale questions related to anaerobic C cycling, including CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

ELASTOMERIC MICROVASCULAR SELF-HEALING MATERIALS

Damaged elastomeric diaphragms within pneumatic controllers used in the oil and gas industry lead to an unintended release of methane. Self-healing microvascular materials capable of healing various types of damage have been fabricated. These microvascular materials are designed to replace currently available commercial diaphragms found in pneumatic controllers and provide a solution to reduce unintended methane leaks. Poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) was used as the main matrix material, with additional testing conducted on polyurethane and flexibilised epoxy materials. Microvascular networks were implemented into the elastomeric membranes to act as ves- sels to deliver healing agents to the damaged areas. The complex, interdigitated channel networks were created using a 3D printed custom compounded filament composed of polylactic acid (PLA) and tin(II) oxalate. Two-part liquid casting polymers were poured around the channels into a mould to create samples with the scaffolding of the microvascular channels intact. Hollow microvascular networks were created by placing the samples within a vacuum oven at 250◦C which causes the thermal depolymerisation of PLA into its gaseous monomers. The manufactured materials were placed in test stands and pressurized using nitrogen gas to determine their healing and mechanical behaviour. Self-healing behaviour was demonstrated using PDMS matrix materials and healing chemistries within a pressure test cell. This test cell was designed to detect any damage to a sample by record- ing an outlet pressure. Damages including puncture holes, diagonal cuts and star-shaped central iv cuts were applied to the samples and a reduction in the outlet pressure was recorded for all sam- ples. A variation in channel spacing and diameter was studied to determine the optimal design of the microvascular network for self-healing performance. The mechanical performance of elastomeric membrane materials within a diaphragmatic pressurised stand was observed. Deformations and strains around the channels and channel inter- sections at the midplane of the materials were recorded using digital image correlation. Normal stresses were calculated using Hooke’s law and the material properties of the PDMS matrix. A reduction in leak rate, implying the success of self-healing, was recorded within manu- factured diaphragm samples tested within a commercial valve. PDMS is the favourable material when compared to polyurethane and flexibilised epoxy for creating

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Hydrokinetic energy conversion using flow induced oscillations of single-cylinder with large passive turbulence control

Various types of flow-induced oscillations (FIOs) have been implemented in development of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) energy converters. With passive turbulence control (PTC), energy harvesting starts at a flow speed of about 0.5 m/s. However, there is worldwide MHK energy available in even slower currents. In the present study, the effect of damping on FIO and power extraction is investigated for a converter with large turbulence stimulation (PTC) consisting of straight strips with a height of 15% of the cylinder diameter and placed symmetrically on the cylinder surface. The oscillating amplitude decreases, as the damping ratio increases, with unchanged sinusoidal pattern of the displacement time-history. The frequency ratio is also affected by damping especially in the VIV initial branch and transition region between VIV and galloping. An important flow characteristic of the large-PTC cylinder is that a recirculation region is formed behind the PTC, causing appreciable disturbance to the flow past the cylinder. Power can be harvested in the whole FIO range and the harnessed power maximum appears at the largest inflow velocity tested. However, the optimum of harnessing efficiency is located at the beginning of the VIV upper branch. The gap between VIV and galloping is bridged when large PTC is used, eliminating the drop in power and efficiency even at higher damping, which would be a weakness of regular-PTC cylinder for energy harvesting. Finally, the mechanism behind the variation of harnessing efficiency with inflow velocity and damping ratio is revealed, and the optimality criterion for the converter design is discussed.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Biophysical analysis of the plant-specific GIPC sphingolipids reveals multiple modes of membrane regulation

The plant plasma membrane (PM) is an essential barrier between the cell and the external environment, controlling signal perception and transmission. It consists of an asymmetrical lipid bilayer made up of three different lipid classes: sphingolipids, sterols, and phospholipids. The glycosyl inositol phosphoryl ceramides (GIPCs), representing up to 40% of total sphingolipids, are assumed to be almost exclusively in the outer leaflet of the PM. However, their biological role and properties are poorly defined. In this study, we investigated the role of GIPCs in membrane organization. Because GIPCs are not commercially available, we developed a protocol to extract and isolate GIPC-enriched fractions from eudicots (cauliflower and tobacco) and monocots (leek and rice). Lipidomic analysis confirmed the presence of trihydroxylated long chain bases and 2-hydroxylated very long-chain fatty acids up to 26 carbon atoms. The glycan head groups of the GIPCs from monocots and dicots were analyzed by gas chromatograph-mass spectrometry, revealing different sugar moieties. Multiple biophysics tools, namely Langmuir monolayer, ζ-Potential, light scattering, neutron reflectivity, solid state 2H-NMR, and molecular modeling, were used to investigate the physical properties of the GIPCs, as well as their interaction with free and conjugated phytosterols. We showed that GIPCs increase the thickness and electronegativity of model membranes, interact differentially with the different phytosterols species, and regulate the gel-to-fluid phase transition during temperature variations. These results unveil the multiple roles played by GIPCs in the plant PM.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spatially correlated incommensurate lattice modulations in an atomically thin high-temperature Bi 2.1 Sr 1.9 CaCu 2.0 O 8+y superconductor

Strong variations in superconducting critical temperatures in different families of the cuprate perovskites, even with similar hole doping in their copper-oxygen planes, suggest the importance of lattice modulation effects. The one-dimensional incommensurate lattice modulation (ILM) of Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+y , with the average atomic positions perturbed beyond the unit cell6, offer s an ideal test ground for studying the interplay between superconductivity and the long-range incommensurate lattice fluctuations. Here we report Scanning nano X-ray Diffraction (SnXRD) imaging of incommensurate lattice modulations in Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+y Van der Waals heterostructures of thicknesses down to two-unit cells. Using SnXRD, we probe that the long-range and short-range incommensurate lattice modulations in bulk sample surface with spatial resolution below 100 nm. We find that puddle-like domains of ILM of size uniformly evolving with dimensionality. In the 2-unit cell thin sample, it is observed that the wavevectors of the long- and short-range orders become anticorrelated with emerging spatial patterns having a directional gradient. The emerging patterns, originated by tiny tuning of lattice strain, induce static mesoscopic charge density waves. Finally, our findings thus demonstrate that the strain can be used to tune and control the electromagnetic properties of two-dimensional high-temperature superconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Understanding Transient Combustion Phenomena in Low-NO x Gas Turbines

The goal of this work was to understand, quantify, and eventually predict combustion instability during operational transients in low-NO x gas turbine combustors. Transient operation is defined as a mode where one or more key operating parameters, including equivalence ratio, fuel composition, or fuel splitting between nozzles in a combustor, are varying in time. The timescale over which this variation occurs will be referred to as the transient timescale, the magnitude of the change in the transient parameter will be referred to as the transient amplitude, and the direction of the variation will be referred to as the transient direction. Transients occur regularly in power generation gas turbine operation. For example, load-following gas turbines vary load to meet power demands while accounting for variation in unsteady grid contributors like wind and solar power. Operators achieve this by varying equivalence ratio and fuel splitting inside the combustors to produce more or less power. Another example of transient operation is during fuel-switching operations, a particular issue for turbines operating with syngas fuels in a co-generation facility. In this case, the composition of the fuel stream may vary in time either as a result of fluctuations in the pipeline, or in the case of a co-generation plant, variations in feedstock or gasification processes. This fluctuation in fuel composition can have significant implications for combustion processes, particularly with high-hydrogen fuels. A small number of studies have investigated transient behavior in gas turbine combustors, particularly in the context of flame blow-off; here, investigators have typically focused on issues of transient amplitude, though without the depth and physics-based experimental design that is proposed in this program. To our knowledge, there have been no studies that have quantified the impact of the transient timescale on combustion. The work helped us understand the impact of several types of transients on combustion stability. Both static and dynamic combustion stability will be considered. The transients will be quantified using their amplitude, direction, and timescale, and we will consider transients in equivalence ratio, fuel composition, and fuel splitting. There were two main objectives of this work: 1. Provide a fundamental understanding of combustion stability during transient operation using data obtained from a number of high-speed diagnostic techniques on experimental configurations that capture important gas turbine combustor features and operating conditions. This goal was met in conjunction with our industrial partner, GE Global Research, with whom we worked closely throughout the program. 2. Develop a stability prediction framework that will allow for the prediction, and possible control, of instabilities as a function of the transient amplitude, direction, and timescale. This input/output model should be physics-based and allow for screening of operating conditions and prediction of unstable behavior at the end of a transient by monitoring combustor health and precursor signals during operation.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Systemic immunological responses are dependent on sex and ovarian hormone presence following acute inhaled woodsmoke exposure

Background: Rural regions of the western United States have experienced a noticeable surge in both the frequency and severity of acute wildfire events, which brings significant challenges to both public safety and environmental conservation efforts, with impacts felt globally. Identifying factors contributing to immune dysfunction, including endocrinological phenotypes, is essential to understanding how hormones may influence toxicological susceptibility. Methods: This exploratory study utilized male and female C57BL/6 mice as in vivo models to investigate distinct responses to acute woodsmoke (WS) exposure with a focus on sex-based differences. In a second set of investigations, two groups were established within the female mouse cohort. In one group, mice experienced ovariectomy (OVX) to simulate an ovarian hormone-deficient state similar to surgical menopause, while the other group received Sham surgery as controls, to investigate the mechanistic role of ovarian hormone presence in driving immune dysregulation following acute WS exposure. Each experimental cohort followed a consecutive 2-day protocol with daily 4-h exposure intervals under two conditions: control HEPA-filtered air (FA) and acute WS to simulate an acute wildfire episode. Results: Metals analysis of WS particulate matter (PM) revealed significantly increased levels of 63 Cu, 182 W, 208 Pb, and 238 U, compared to filtered air (FA) controls, providing insights into the specific metal components most impacted by the changing dynamics of wildfire occurrences in the region. Male and female mice exhibited diverse patterns in lung mRNA cytokine expression following WS exposure, with males showing downregulation and females displaying upregulation, notably for IL-1β, TNF-α, CXCL-1, CCL-5, TGF-β, and IL-6. After acute WS exposure, there were notable differences in the responses of macrophages, neutrophils, and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cytokines IL-10, IL-6, IL-1β, and TNF-α. Significant diverse alterations were observed in BAL cytokines, specifically IL-1β, IL-10, IL-6, and TNF-α, as well as in the populations of immune cells, such as macrophages and polymorphonuclear leukocytes, in both Sham and OVX mice, following acute WS exposure. These findings elucidated the profound influence of hormonal changes on inflammatory outcomes, delineating substantial sex-related differences in immune activation and revealing altered immune responses in OVX mice due to ovarian hormone deficiency. In addition, the flow cytometry analysis highlighted the complex interaction between OVX surgery, acute WS exposure, and their collective impact on immune cell populations within the hematopoietic bone marrow niche. Conclusions: In summary, both male and female mice, alongside females subjected to OVX and those who had sham surgery, exhibit significant variations in the expression of proinflammatory cytokines, chemokines, lung mRNA gene expression, and related functional networks linked to signaling pathways. These differences potentially act as mediators of sex-specific and hormonal influences in the systemic inflammatory response to acute WS exposure during a wildfire event. Understanding the regulatory roles of genes expressed differentially under environmental stressors holds considerable implications, aiding in identifying sex-specific therapeutic targets for addressing acute lung inflammation and injury.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental Characterization of Hydrocarbons and Nitrogen Oxides Production in a Heavy-Duty Diesel–Natural Gas Reactivity-Controlled Compression Ignition Engine

Reactivity-Controlled Compression Ignition (RCCI) combustion is considered one of the most promising Low-Temperature Combustion (LTC) concepts aimed at reducing greenhouse gases for the transportation and power generation sectors. Due to the spontaneous combustion of a lean, nearly homogeneous mixture of air and low-reactivity fuel (LRF), ignited through the direct injection of a small quantity of high-reactivity fuel (HRF), RCCI (dual-fuel) shows higher efficiency and lower pollutants compared to conventional diesel combustion (CDC) if run at very advanced injection timing. Even though a HRF is used, the use of advanced injection timing leads to high ignition delays, compared to CDC, and generates high cycle-to-cycle variability, limited operating range, and high pressure rise rates at high loads. This work presents an experimental analysis performed on a heavy-duty single-cylinder compression ignited engine in dual-fuel diesel–natural gas mode. The objective of the present work is to investigate and highlight the correlations between combustion behavior and pollutant emissions, especially unburned hydrocarbons (HC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx). Based on the analysis of crank-resolved pollutants measurements performed through fast FID and fast NOx systems under different engine operating conditions, two correlations were found demonstrating a good accordance between pollutant production and combustion behavior: Net Cyclic Hydrocarbon emission—cyclic IMEP variations (R 2 = 0.86), and Cyclic NOx—maximum value of the Rate of Heat Released (R 2 = 0.82).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Cumulonimbus Clouds Convert a Smaller Fraction of CAPE into Kinetic Energy in a Warmer Atmosphere

Abstract This study investigates how entrainment’s diluting effect on cumulonimbus updraft buoyancy is affected by the temperature of the troposphere, which is expected to increase by the end of the century. A parcel model framework is constructed that allows for independent variations in the temperature ( T ), the entrainment rate ε , the free-tropospheric relative humidity (RH), and the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Using this framework, dilution of buoyancy is evaluated with T and RH independently varied and with CAPE either held constant or increased with temperature. When CAPE is held constant, buoyancy decreases as T increases, with parcels in warmer environments realizing substantially smaller fractions of their CAPE as kinetic energy (KE). This occurs because the increased moisture difference between an updraft and its surroundings at warmer temperatures drives greater updraft dilution. Similar results are found in midlatitude and tropical conditions when CAPE is increased with temperature. With the expected 6%–7% increase in CAPE per kelvin of warming, KE only increases at 2%–4% K −1 in narrow updrafts but tracks more closely with CAPE at 4%–6% in wider updrafts. Interestingly, the rate of increase in the KE with T becomes larger than that of CAPE when the later quantity increases at more than 10% K −1 . These findings emphasize the importance of considering entrainment in studies of moist convection’s response to climate change, as the entrainment-driven dilution of buoyancy may partially counteract the influence of increases in CAPE on updraft intensity. Significance Statement Cumulonimbus clouds mix air with their surrounding environment through a process called entrainment, which controls how efficiently environmental energy is converted into upward speed in thunderstorm updrafts. Our research shows that warmer temperatures will exacerbate the moisture difference between cumulonimbus updrafts and their surroundings, leading to greater mixing and less efficient conversion of environmental energy into updraft speeds. This effect should be considered in future research that investigates how climate change will affect cumulonimbus clouds.

Peters, John M.↗

Characterizing and mitigating coherent errors in a trapped ion quantum processor using hidden inverses

Quantum computing testbeds exhibit high-fidelity quantum control over small collections of qubits, enabling performance of precise, repeatable operations followed by measurements. Currently, these noisy intermediate-scale devices can support a sufficient number of sequential operations prior to decoherence such that near term algorithms can be performed with proximate accuracy (like chemical accuracy for quantum chemistry problems). While the results of these algorithms are imperfect, these imperfections can help bootstrap quantum computer testbed development. Demonstrations of these algorithms over the past few years, coupled with the idea that imperfect algorithm performance can be caused by several dominant noise sources in the quantum processor, which can be measured and calibrated during algorithm execution or in post-processing, has led to the use of noise mitigation to improve typical computational results. Conversely, benchmark algorithms coupled with noise mitigation can help diagnose the nature of the noise, whether systematic or purely random. Here, we outline the use of coherent noise mitigation techniques as a characterization tool in trapped-ion testbeds. We perform model-fitting of the noisy data to determine the noise source based on realistic physics focused noise models and demonstrate that systematic noise amplification coupled with error mitigation schemes provides useful data for noise model deduction. Further, in order to connect lower level noise model details with application specific performance of near term algorithms, we experimentally construct the loss landscape of a variational algorithm under various injected noise sources coupled with error mitigation techniques. This type of connection enables application-aware hardware codesign, in which the most important noise sources in specific applications, like quantum chemistry, become foci of improvement in subsequent hardware generations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Lin, Jonathan↗

Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence

With an estimated $10.4 billion in medical costs and 31.4 million outpatient visits each year, influenza poses a serious burden of disease in the United States. To provide insights and advance warning into the spread of influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs a challenge for forecasting weighted influenza-like illness (wILI) at the national and regional level. Many models produce independent forecasts for each geographical unit, ignoring the constraint that the national wILI is a weighted sum of regional wILI, where the weights correspond to the population size of the region. We propose a novel algorithm that transforms a set of independent forecast distributions to obey this constraint, which we refer to as probabilistically coherent. Enforcing probabilistic coherence led to an increase in forecast skill for 79% of the models we tested over multiple flu seasons, highlighting the importance of respecting the forecasting system’s geographical hierarchy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A review of crosstalk polymorphic circuits and their scalability

Using a control variable, the functionality of Polymorphic circuits can be modified, making them adaptable and useful for reconfiguring circuit behavior — all the way from gate level to system level. State-of-the art polymorphic circuits are based on custom non-linear circuit design or emerging devices such as ambipolar FET, configurable magnetic devices etc. While some of these approaches are inefficient in performance, others involve exotic devices. The Crosstalk computing based polymorphic circuits offer a fresh perspective. In Crosstalk, the interconnect interference between nanoscale metal lines is intentionally engineered to exhibit the programmable Boolean logic behavior. This approach relies on the coupling between metal lines and not on the transistors for computing, resulting in better scalability, security by obscurity, and fault tolerance by reconfiguration. Our novel approach is backed by the mathematical formulation that conveys the rationale to generalize and achieve a wide variety of polymorphic circuits. Our experiments, including design, simulation, and Power Performance Area (PPA) characterization results indicate that crosstalk circuits provide significant improvement in transistor count (about 3x), switching energy (2x), and speed (1.5x) for polymorphic logic circuits. In the best-case scenario, the transistor count reduction is 5x. This paper presents Crosstalk computing’s fundamentals, polymorphism and the scalability aspects to compete/co-exist with CMOS for digital logic implementations below 10 nm. Our scalability study uses Open Source 7 nm PDK, considers all process variation aspects and accommodates worst-case scenarios. The study results for various benchmark circuits show that the Crosstalk technology is a viable alternative to CMOS for digital logic implementations below 10 nm, having 48% density, 57% power, and 10% performance gains over equivalent CMOS counterparts. Finally, we compare Crosstalk Polymorphic Circuit design technique with similar approaches described in related works and discuss its features and constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physics-constrained superresolution diffusion for six-dimensional phase space diagnostics

Adaptive physics-constrained superresolution diffusion is developed for noninvasive virtual diagnostics of the six-dimensional (6D) phase space density of charged particle beams. An adaptive variational autoencoder embeds initial beam condition images and scalar measurements to a low-dimensional latent space from which a 32 6 pixel 6D tensor representation of the beam's 6D phase space density is generated. Projecting from a 6D tensor generates physically consistent two-dimensional projections. Physics-guided superresolution diffusion transforms low-resolution images of the 6D density to high resolution 256 × 256 pixel images. Unsupervised adaptive latent space tuning enables tracking of time-varying beams without knowledge of time-varying initial conditions. The method is demonstrated with experimental data and multiparticle simulations at the HiRES UED. The general approach is applicable to a wide range of complex dynamic systems evolving in high-dimensional phase space. The method is shown to be robust to distribution shift without retraining. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Genomic and phenotypic characterization of multidrug-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Reading isolates involved in a turkey-associated foodborne outbreak

Salmonella is a global bacterial foodborne pathogen associated with a variety of contaminated food products. Poultry products are a common source of Salmonella -associated foodborne illness, and an estimated 7% of human illnesses in the United States are attributed to turkey products. From November 2017 to March 2019, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a turkey-associated outbreak of multidrug-resistant (MDR; resistant to ≥3 antimicrobial classes) Salmonella enterica serovar Reading ( S . Reading) linked to 358 human infections in 42 US states and Canada. Since S . Reading was seldom linked to human illness prior to this outbreak, the current study compared genomic sequences of S . Reading isolates prior to the outbreak (pre-outbreak) to isolates identified during the outbreak period, focusing on genes that were different between the two groups but common within a group. Following whole-genome sequence analysis of five pre-outbreak and five outbreak-associated turkey/turkey product isolates of S . Reading, 37 genes located within two distinct chromosomal regions were identified only in the pre-outbreak isolates: (1) an ~5 kb region containing four protein-coding genes including uidA which encodes beta-glucuronidase, pgdA encoding peptidoglycan deacetylase, and two hypothetical proteins and (2) an ~28 kb region comprised of 32 phage-like genes and the xerC gene, which encodes tyrosine recombinase (frequently associated with phage genes). The five outbreak isolates also had a deletional event within the cirA gene, introducing a translational frame shift and premature stop codon. The cirA gene encodes a protein with dual receptor functions: a siderophore receptor for transport of dihydroxybenzoylserine as well as a colicin Ia/b receptor. Significant differences for the identified genetic variations were also detected in 75 S . Reading human isolates. Of the 41 S . Reading isolates collected before or in 2017, 81 and 90% of the isolates contained the uidA and pgdA genes, respectively, but only 24% of the isolates collected after 2017 harbored the uidA and pgdA genes. The truncation event within the cirA gene was also significantly higher in isolates collected after 2017 (74%) compared to before or in 2017 (5%). Phenotypic analysis of the S . Reading isolates for colicin and cefiderocol sensitivities (CirA) and β-methyl-D-glucuronic acid utilization (UidA and accessory proteins) supported the genomic data. Overall, a similar genome reduction pattern was generally observed in both the turkey and human isolates of S . Reading during the outbreak period, and the genetic differences were present in genes that could potentially promote pathogen dissemination due to variation in Salmonella colonization, fitness, and/or virulence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗