Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Climate sensitivity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,441 records · Page 80

Next Generation Aura-OMI SO2 Retrieval Algorithm: Introduction and Implementation Status

We introduce our next generation algorithm to retrieve SO2 using radiance measurements from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We employ a principal component analysis technique to analyze OMI radiance spectral in 310.5-340 nm acquired over regions with no significant SO2. The resulting principal components (PCs) capture radiance variability caused by both physical processes (e.g., Rayleigh and Raman scattering, and ozone absorption) and measurement artifacts, enabling us to account for these various interferences in SO2 retrievals. By fitting these PCs along with SO2 Jacobians calculated with a radiative transfer model to OMI-measured radiance spectra, we directly estimate SO2 vertical column density in one step. As compared with the previous generation operational OMSO2 PBL (Planetary Boundary Layer) SO2 product, our new algorithm greatly reduces unphysical biases and decreases the noise by a factor of two, providing greater sensitivity to anthropogenic emissions. The new algorithm is fast, eliminates the need for instrument-specific radiance correction schemes, and can be easily adapted to other sensors. These attributes make it a promising technique for producing long-term, consistent SO2 records for air quality and climate research. We have operationally implemented this new algorithm on OMI SIPS for producing the new generation standard OMI SO2 products.

Sulfur dioxide↗

Highly Sensitive Tunable Diode Laser Spectrometers for In Situ Planetary Exploration

This paper describes highly sensitive tunable diode laser spectrometers suitable for in situ planetary exploration. The technology developed at JPL is based on wavelength modulated cavity enhanced absorption spectroscopy. It is capable of sensitively detecting chemical signatures of life through the abundance of biogenic molecules and their isotopic composition, and chemicals such as water necessary for habitats of life. The technology would be suitable for searching for biomarkers, extinct life, potential habitats of extant life, and signatures of ancient climates on Mars; and for detecting biomarkers, prebiotic chemicals and habitats of life in the outer Solar System. It would be useful for prospecting for water on the Moon and asteroids, and characterizing its isotopic composition. Deployment on the Moon could provide ground truth to the recent remote measurements and help to uncover precious records of the early bombardment history of the inner Solar System buried at the shadowed poles, and elucidate the mechanism for the generation of near-surface water in the illuminated regions. The technology would also be useful for detecting other volatile molecules in planetary atmospheres and subsurface reservoirs, isotopic characterization of planetary materials, and searching for signatures of extinct life preserved in solid matrices.

Vasudev, Ram↗

Optical Parametric Technology for Methane Measurements

Atmospheric methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, with approximately 25 times the radiative forcing of carbon dioxide (CO2) per molecule. Yet, lack of understanding of the processes that control CH4 sources and sinks and its potential release from stored carbon reservoirs contributes significant uncertainty to our knowledge of the interaction between carbon cycle and climate change. At Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) we have been developing the technology needed to remotely measure CH4 from orbit. Our concept for a CH4 lidar is a nadir viewing instrument that uses the strong laser echoes from the Earth's surface to measure CH4. The instrument uses a tunable, narrow-frequency light source and photon-sensitive detector to make continuous measurements from orbit, in sunlight and darkness, at all latitudes and can be relatively immune to errors introduced by scattering from clouds and aerosols. Our measurement technique uses Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA), which measures the absorption of laser pulses by a trace gas when tuned to a wavelength coincident with an absorption line. We have already demonstrated ground-based and airborne CH4 detection using Optical Parametric Amplifiers (OPA) at 1651 nm using a laser with approximately 10 microJ/pulse at 5kHz with a narrow linewidth. Next, we will upgrade our OPO system to add several more wavelengths in preparation for our September 2015 airborne campaign, and expect that these upgrades will enable CH4 measurements with 1% precision (10-20 ppb).

oscillator↗

Intensified Positive Arctic–Methane Feedback under IPCC Climate Scenarios in the 21st Century

The positive Arctic–methane (CH 4 ) feedback forms when more CH 4 is released from the Arctic tundra to warm the climate, further stimulating the Arctic to emit CH 4 . This study utilized the CLM-Microbe model to project CH 4 emissions across five distinct Arctic tundra ecosystems on the Alaska North Slope, considering three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios using climate data from three climate models from 2016 to 2100. Employing a hyper-resolution of 5 m × 5 m within 40,000 m 2 domains accounted for the Arctic tundra’s high spatial heterogeneity; three sites were near $Utqia\dot{g}vik$ (US-Beo, US-Bes, and US-Brw), with one each in Atqasuk (US-Atq) and Ivotuk (US-Ivo). Simulated CH 4 emissions substantially increased by a factor of 5.3 to 7.5 under the SSP5–8.5 scenario compared to the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios. The projected CH 4 emissions exhibited a stronger response to rising temperature under the SSP5–8.5 scenario than under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, primarily due to strong temperature dependence and the enhanced precipitation-induced expansion of anoxic conditions that promoted methanogenesis. The CH 4 transport via ebullition and plant-mediated transport is projected to increase under all three SSP scenarios, and ebullition dominated CH 4 transport by 2100 across five sites. Projected CH 4 emissions varied in temperature sensitivity, with a Q 10 range of 2.7 to 60.9 under SSP1–2.6, 3.8 to 17.6 under SSP2–4.5, and 5.7 to 17.2 under SSP5–8.5. Compared with the other three sites, US-Atq and US-Ivo were estimated to have greater increases in CH 4 emissions due to warmer temperatures and higher precipitation. The fact that warmer sites and warmer climate scenarios had higher CH 4 emissions suggests an intensified positive Arctic–CH 4 feedback in the 21st century. Microbial physiology and substrate availability dominated the enhanced CH 4 production. The simulated intensified positive feedback underscores the urgent need for a more mechanistic understanding of CH 4 dynamics and the development of strategies to mitigate CH 4 across the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface Melting Over the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived From Enhanced Resolution Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures (1979–2019)

Surface melting is a major component of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance, and it affects sea level rise through direct runoff and the modulation of ice dynamics and hydrological processes, supraglacially, englacially and subglacially. Passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperature observations are of paramount importance in studying the spatial and temporal evolution of surface melting due to their long temporal coverage (1979–present) and high temporal resolution (daily). However, a major limitation of PMW datasets has been the relatively coarse spatial resolution, which has historically been of the order of tens of kilometers. Here, we use a newly released PMW dataset (37 GHz, horizontal polarization) made available through a NASA “Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments” (MeASUREs) program to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet at an enhanced spatial resolution of 3.125 km. We assess the outputs of different detection algorithms using data collected by automatic weather stations (AWSs) and the outputs of the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model. We found that sporadic melting is well captured using a dynamic algorithm based on the outputs of the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpack (MEMLS), whereas a fixed threshold of 245 K is capable of detecting persistent melt. Our results indicate that, during the reference period from 1979 to 2019 (from 1988 to 2019), surface melting over the ice sheet increased in terms of both duration, up to 4.5 (2.9) d per decade, and extension, up to 6.9 % (3.6 %) of the entire ice sheet surface extent per decade, according to the MEMLS algorithm. Furthermore, the melting season started up to 4.0 (2.5) d earlier and ended 7.0 (3.9) d later per decade. We also explored the information content of the enhanced-resolution dataset with respect to the one at 25 km and MAR outputs using a semi-variogram approach. We found that the enhanced product is more sensitive to local-scale processes, thereby confirming the potential of this new enhanced product for monitoring surface melting over Greenland at a higher spatial resolution than the historical products and for monitoring its impact on sea level rise. This offers the opportunity to improve our understanding of the processes driving melting, to validate modeled melt extent at high resolution and, potentially, to assimilate these data in climate models.

Surface melting↗

Contrasting the Biophysical and Radiative Effects of Rising CO 2 Concentrations on Ozone Dry Deposition Fluxes

Abstract The dry deposition of ozone from the atmosphere to ecosystems is an important coupling mechanism between atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial biogeochemical processes. In most Earth system models, dry deposition is simulated using a resistor‐in‐series approach that aims to parameterize the governing biological, chemical, and physical processes through a series of functional approximations. Here, we evaluate the influence of carbon cycle‐climate responses on this parameterization using the results of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model v1.1 Biogeochemistry simulation campaign. This simulation campaign was designed in part to explore the biophysical and radiative effects of rising historical CO 2 concentrations on the Earth system. We find that while the global annual ozone dry deposition is relatively insensitive to these effects, regionally the influence can be up to 10%. The strongest regional sensitivities in ozone dry deposition are predominantly in higher latitudes over land in the northern hemisphere and are dominated by the radiative effect of CO 2 , with little net influence of biophysical responses. Of all the impacts of the radiative effect of CO 2 , we point to the potential importance of accurately representing ozone deposition to snow in Earth System Models and provide recommendations for future simulation campaigns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss

Documenting the rate, magnitude and causes of snow loss is essential to benchmark the pace of climate change and to manage the differential water security risks of snowpack declines. So far, however, observational uncertainties in snow mass have made the detection and attribution of human-forced snow losses elusive, undermining societal preparedness. Here we show that human-caused warming has caused declines in Northern Hemisphere-scale March snowpack over the 1981–2020 period. Using an ensemble of snowpack reconstructions, we identify robust snow trends in 82 out of 169 major Northern Hemisphere river basins, 31 of which we can confidently attribute to human influence. Most crucially, we show a generalizable and highly nonlinear temperature sensitivity of snowpack, in which snow becomes marginally more sensitive to one degree Celsius of warming as climatological winter temperatures exceed minus eight degrees Celsius. Such nonlinearity explains the lack of widespread snow loss so far and augurs much sharper declines and water security risks in the most populous basins. Together, our results emphasize that human-forced snow losses and their water consequences are attributable—even absent their clear detection in individual snow products—and will accelerate and homogenize with near-term warming, posing risks to water resources in the absence of substantial climate mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contrasting Responses of Hailstorms to Anthropogenic Climate Change in Different Synoptic Weather Systems

Hailstones and extreme precipitation generate substantial economic losses across the United States (US) and the globe. Their strong association with short-lived, intense convective storms poses a great challenge in predicting their future changes. Here, we conducted model simulations at 1.2 km grid spacing for severe convective storms with large hail and heavy precipitation that occurred in two typical types of synoptic-scale environments in spring seasons over the central US under both current and future climate conditions. We find that the responses of large hail (diameters >2.5 cm) to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) are markedly different between the hailstorms developed in the two types of synoptic-scale environments, with over 110% increase in large hail occurrences for the frontal systems, whereas less than 30% increase for the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) systems. This is explained by the larger increase in convective intensity and updraft width and a smaller increase in warm cloud depth in the frontal storms compared with the GPLLJ storms. Interestingly, the occurrences and intensity of heavy precipitation (rain rate >20 mm hr-1) in both types of systems are similarly sensitive to ACC (e.g., 40% and 33% increases in the occurrences for the frontal and GPLLJ systems, respectively). These results advance our knowledge of hail projection and have important implications for managing risks for future hail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aircraft Trajectory Design Based on Reducing the Combined Effects of Carbon-Dioxide, Oxides of Nitrogen and Contrails

Aircraft operations need to meet the combined requirements of safety, efficiency, capacity and reduced environmental impact. Aircraft routes can be made efficient by flying wind optimal routes. However, the desire to reduce the impact of aviation emissions and contrails may result in trajectories, which deviate from wind optimal trajectories leading to extra fuel use. The lifetime associated with different emissions and contrails varies from a few hours to several hundred years. The impact of certain gases depends on the amount and location of the emission, and the decision-making horizon, in years, when the impact is estimated. The Absolute Global Temperature Potential (AGTP) is used as a metric to measure the combined effects of emissions and contrails. This paper extends earlier work by the authors to include the effect of oxides of nitrogen in the development of aircraft trajectories to reduce the combined effects of carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen (NOX) and contrails. The methodology is applied to air traffic in the continental US. The paper shows the trade-offs between reducing emissions and the cost of extra fuel using a fuel sensitivity index, defined as the reduction in AGTP per kg of fuel. The paper shows the performance of the optimization strategy for decision intervals of 10, 25 and 100 years. Based on the simplified models, the inclusion of NOX emissions has a slight influence on the minimal climate impact trajectories when the decision horizons are around 25 years.

air trafic optimization↗

Aircraft Trajectory Design Based on Reducing the Combined Effects of Carbon-di-oxide, Nitrogen and Contrails

Aircraft operations need to meet the combined requirements of safety, efficiency, capacity and reduced environmental impact. Aircraft routes can be made efficient by flying wind optimal routes. However, the desire to reduce the impact of aviation emissions and contrails may result in trajectories, which deviate from wind optimal trajectories leading to extra fuel use. The lifetime associated with different emissions and contrails varies from a few hours to several hundred years. The impact of certain gases depends on the amount and location of the emission, and the decision-making horizon, in years, when the impact is estimated. The Absolute Global Temperature Potential (AGTP) is used as a metric to measure the combined effects of emissions and contrails. This paper extends earlier work by the authors to include the effect of oxides of nitrogen in the development of aircraft trajectories to reduce the combined effects of carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen (NOX) and contrails. The methodology is applied to air traffic in the continental US. The paper shows the trade-offs between reducing emissions and the cost of extra fuel using a fuel sensitivity index, defined as the reduction in AGTP per kg of fuel. The paper shows the performance of the optimization strategy for decision intervals of 10, 25 and 100 years. Based on the simplified models, the inclusion of NOX emissions has a slight influence on the minimal climate impact trajectories when the decision horizons are around 25 years.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

Pangenomes suggest ecological-evolutionary responses to experimental soil warming

ABSTRACT Below-ground carbon transformations that contribute to healthy soils represent a natural climate change mitigation, but newly acquired traits adaptive to climate stress may alter microbial feedback mechanisms. To better define microbial evolutionary responses to long-term climate warming, we study microorganisms from an ongoing in situ soil warming experiment where, for over three decades, temperate forest soils are continuously heated at 5°C above ambient. We hypothesize that across generations of chronic warming, genomic signatures within diverse bacterial lineages reflect adaptations related to growth and carbon utilization. From our bacterial culture collection isolated from experimental heated and control plots, we sequenced genomes representing dominant taxa sensitive to warming, including lineages of Actinobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, and Betaproteobacteria. We investigated genomic attributes and functional gene content to identify signatures of adaptation. Comparative pangenomics revealed accessory gene clusters related to central metabolism, competition, and carbon substrate degradation, with few functional annotations explicitly associated with long-term warming. Trends in functional gene patterns suggest genomes from heated plots were relatively enriched in central carbohydrate and nitrogen metabolism pathways, while genomes from control plots were relatively enriched in amino acid and fatty acid metabolism pathways. We observed that genomes from heated plots had less codon bias, suggesting potential adaptive traits related to growth or growth efficiency. Codon usage bias varied for organisms with similar 16S rrn operon copy number, suggesting that these organisms experience different selective pressures on growth efficiency. Our work suggests the emergence of lineage-specific trends as well as common ecological-evolutionary microbial responses to climate change. IMPORTANCE Anthropogenic climate change threatens soil ecosystem health in part by altering below-ground carbon cycling carried out by microbes. Microbial evolutionary responses are often overshadowed by community-level ecological responses, but adaptive responses represent potential changes in traits and functional potential that may alter ecosystem function. We predict that microbes are adapting to climate change stressors like soil warming. To test this, we analyzed the genomes of bacteria from a soil warming experiment where soil plots have been experimentally heated 5°C above ambient for over 30 years. While genomic attributes were unchanged by long-term warming, we observed trends in functional gene content related to carbon and nitrogen usage and genomic indicators of growth efficiency. These responses may represent new parameters in how soil ecosystems feedback to the climate system.

Choudoir, Mallory J. (ORCID:0000000291175150)↗

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Implications of Changes in Water Stress and Precipitation Extremes for Cocoa Production in Côte D'ivoire and Ghana

ABSTRACT Climate change induces high variability in drought patterns and extreme precipitation indices in rainfed cocoa farming, impacting cocoa production. This study evaluated water stress, meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, and critical extreme precipitation indices in the world's two largest cocoa‐producing nations from 1981 to 2022. The results revealed a significant reduction in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), in the last three decades, with the greatest decline in the 1991–2000 and 2011–2022 periods. Ghana experienced the most significant reduction up to 15% (200 mm/year) in the last decade, attributed to a substantial decrease in wet days number (RR1) up to 25 days per year, a reduction in maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) up to 6 days per year, and an increase in maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) up to 15 days per year. Moreover, there was a notable decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with reductions of up to 4 mm/day in certain areas, contributing to increased drought frequency, severity, and duration. In the most recent decade (2011–2022), particularly during the extremely dry years of 2013 and 2015, cocoa‐growing regions in Ghana (GHA) and eastern Côte d'Ivoire (CIV) experienced prolonged agricultural drought expressed by soil moisture deficit, typically extending from May to September. Additionally, large portions of central and eastern Ghana, as well as northeastern Côte d'Ivoire experienced sustained water stress, with over three consecutive months of total monthly precipitation falling below 100 mm, negatively impacting cocoa productivity. The decrease in the yield in the range of 2.5% to 37% was noted in the dry years and the following years, varying according to the country depending on the severity of the drought. Sensitivity analysis highlights cocoa yield's responsiveness to drought and water stress, particularly in specific years when water stress occurred, such as 1984,1985, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2008. Considering the observed trends in precipitation patterns and their impact on cocoa production, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of future precipitation patterns due to climate change. To address this challenge effectively, our study underscores the importance of identifying and closely monitoring regions currently facing water stress, as determined by precipitation and drought indicators. Over the analysed period (1981–2022), we have noted shifts in the distribution of water‐stressed areas, highlighting the dynamic nature of this issue. Consequently, we advocate for a targeted approach to implement cocoa supplementary irrigation in consistently water‐stressed regions.

Obahoundje, Salomon [International Water Managemen↗

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

Abstract Tropical forests face increasing climate risk 1,2 , yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 ) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM 50 ) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk 3–5 , little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM 50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM 50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM 50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM 50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM 50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM 50 in the Amazon 6,7 , with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Global ocean dimethyl sulfide climatology estimated from observations and an artificial neural network

Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is important to climate due to the ability of DMS to alter Earth's radiation budget. Knowledge of the global-scale distribution, seasonal variability, and sea-to-air flux of DMS is needed in order to improve understanding of atmospheric sulfur, aerosol/cloud dynamics, and albedo. Here we examine the use of an artificial neural network (ANN) to extrapolate available DMS measurements to the global ocean and produce a global climatology with monthly temporal resolution. A global database of 82 996 ship-based DMS measurements in surface waters was used along with a suite of environmental parameters consisting of latitude–longitude coordinates, time of day, time of year, solar radiation, mixed layer depth, sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, and silicate. Linear regressions of DMS against the environmental parameters show that on a global-scale mixed layer depth and solar radiation are the strongest predictors of DMS. These parameters capture ~9 % and ~7 % of the raw DMS data variance, respectively. Multilinear regression can capture more of the raw data variance (~39 %) but strongly underestimates DMS in high-concentration regions. In contrast, the artificial neural network captures ~66 % of the raw data variance in our database. Like prior climatologies our results show a strong seasonal cycle in surface ocean DMS with the highest concentrations and sea-to-air fluxes in the high-latitude summertime oceans. We estimate a lower global sea-to-air DMS flux (20.12±0.43 Tg S yr –1 ) than the prior estimate based on a map interpolation method when the same gas transfer velocity parameterization is used. Our sensitivity test results show that DMS concentration does not change unidirectionally with each of the environmental parameters, which emphasizes the interactions among these parameters. The ANN model suggests that the flux of DMS from the ocean to the atmosphere will increase with global warming. Given that larger DMS fluxes induce greater cloud albedo, this corresponds to a negative climate feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Calibrating Constant Elasticity of Substitution Technologies to Bottom-up Cost Estimates

We propose a method for calibrating an industry-level technology to engineering (bottom-up) estimates with a particular focus on abatement opportunities. As a demonstration, substitution elasticities across inputs are adjusted in the nested cost function for the electricity sector to best fit a target marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve derived from engineering assessments of available technologies. Elasticities are optimized over an entire relevant range of the MAC, whereas current techniques use local point estimates under little or no abatement. In the context of fitting to a given MAC we evaluate alternative nesting structures and find that, while complexity in nesting improves the fit, even relatively simple nesting structures can reasonably approximate the target MAC. In our example, focused on the electricity sector, we find standard elasticities adopted in top-down models moderately overstate abatement costs relative to the engineering targets. In our preferred specification the most important adjustment is to escalate the substitution elasticity between energy and value-added inputs. This is consistent with an argument that the current set of point estimates fail to properly account for new capital-based technologies. These conclusions, however, are sensitive to our assumption about output-intensity abatement and consumer price responsiveness, both of which are not delineated in engineering estimates.

abatement cost↗

Coupling of the radiative, convective, and surface fluxes over the equatorial Pacific

An idealized energy-balance model for a closed tropical circulation is first presented to illustrate the coupling between the net tropospheric cooling, the surface fluxes, and the mean subsidence away from the precipitation zones. Then a one-dimensional diagnostic model and a radiation model with boundary layer clouds are combined to explore this coupling for a specific region, using mean sounding data over the tropical Pacific. The radiatively driven subsidence rate at the top of the convective boundary layer is approximately 35 mb/day and is largely independent of boundary layer cloud fraction. The sensitivity of the corresponding convective heat flux profiles to the mass divergence profile and cloud fraction within the boundary layer is explored. Reasonable assumptions give realistic surface sensible and latent heat fluxes for this region of approximately 10 and 130 W/sq m. The paper illustrates the important background climatic control of the radiation field on the tropical surface fluxes.

Ridgway, W.↗

Two-Channel Satellite Retrievals of Aerosol Properties: An Overview

In order to reduce current uncertainties in the evaluation of the direct and indirect effects of tropospheric aerosols on climate on the global scale, it has been suggested to apply multi-channel retrieval algorithms to the full period of existing satellite data. This talk will outline the methodology of interpreting two-channel satellite radiance data over the ocean and describe a detailed analysis of the sensitivity of retrieved aerosol parameters to the assumptions made in different retrieval algorithms. We will specifically address the calibration and cloud screening issues, consider the suitability of existing satellite data sets to detecting short- and long-term regional and global changes, compare preliminary results obtained by several research groups, and discuss the prospects of creating an advanced retroactive climatology of aerosol optical thickness and size over the oceans.

Mishchenko, Michael I.↗