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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of the inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.

Yang, Zhaoqing↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of energy savings potential of variable refrigerant flow (VRF) from variable air volume (VAV) in the U.S. climate locations

Variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems are known for their high energy performance and thus can improve energy efficiency both in residential and commercial buildings. The energy savings potential of this system has been demonstrated in several studies by comparing the system performance with conventional HVAC systems such as rooftop variable air volume systems (RTU-VAV) and central chiller and boiler systems. This paper evaluates the performance of VRF and RTU-VAV systems in a simulation environment using widely-accepted whole building energy modeling software, EnergyPlus. A medium office prototype building model, developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is used to assess the performance of VRF and RTU-VAV systems. Each system is placed in 16 different locations, representing all U.S. climate zones, to evaluate the performance variations. Both models are compliant with the minimum energy code requirements prescribed in ASHRAE standard 90.1-2010 — energy standard for buildings except low-rise residential buildings. Finally, a comparison study between the simulation results of VRF and RTU-VAV models is made to demonstrate energy savings potential of VRF systems. The simulation results show that the VRF systems would save around 15–42% and 18–33% for HVAC site and source energy uses compared to the RTU-VAV systems. In addition, calculated results for annual HVAC cost savings point out that hot and mild climates show higher percentage cost savings for the VRF systems than cold climates mainly due to the differences in electricity and gas use for heating sources.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Peak cooling load shift capability of a thermal energy storage system integrated with an active insulation system in US climate zones

This study aims to evaluate a thermal energy storage (TES) system integrated with an active insulation system (AIS) to form a TES + AIS integrated wall system as a partition and as a secondary cooling system to shift the peak load and reduce cooling energy consumption. To understand and demonstrate its cooling performance, the TES + AIS integrated wall system was installed in an office building in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. To investigate the effect of the TES + AIS integrated wall system in a typical office building and various climate zones, the US Department of Energy’s prototype office building model was modified to accommodate the proposed system. In this work, results showed that the minimum size of the proposed system to achieve energy savings varies depending on climate conditions. The minimum size of the proposed system for cooling energy saving and shifting peak cooling demand in climate zones 2, 3, and 5 is 29.7 m 2 , whereas it is 44.6 m 2 in zones 4 and 6. By installing the minimum size of the proposed system, 11.3 % to 16.4 % of cooling energy can be shifted during discharge hours in a representative summer day.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

High‑performance cold‑climate heat pump using tandem compressors with and without vapor injection: Laboratory investigation and field demonstration

Cold‑climate air‑source heat pumps must maintain heating capacity and stable operation at low ambient temperatures for residential applications. This study adapts tandem single-speed compressors—proven in commercial systems —for residential CCHPs, integrating VI and validating performance across laboratory and extreme field conditions to achieve cold-climate targets. That is to achieve ≥75% of the rated heating capacity at −25.0 °C relative to 8.3 °C and heating coefficient of performance (COP) greater than 4.0 at 8.3 °C. Laboratory testing confirmed that both configurations met these targets while operating within acceptable discharge‑temperature limits. Relative to the non‑VI configuration, the VI system provided up to 15% higher heating capacity and up to 9% higher heating COP under identical conditions, yielding a 5.6–9.1% increase in heating seasonal performance factor (HSPF). Field tests in Ohio and Alaska, with minimum outdoor temperatures of −25.0 °C and −34.0 °C, respectively, showed stable operation, minimal supplemental heating (<3.2%), low defrost penalties, and consistent output. Tandem‑compressor architectures proves promising for cold-climate residential heating.

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)↗
DOE OSTI2014

Implications of Small Modular Reactors for Climate Change Mitigation

Achieving climate policy targets will require large-scale deployment of low-carbon energy technologies, including nuclear power. The small modular reactor (SMR) is viewed as a possible solution to the problems of energy security as well as climate change. In this paper, we use an integrated assessment model (IAM) to investigate the evolution of a global energy portfolio with SMRs under a stringent climate policy. Technology selection in the model is based on costs; we use results from previous expert elicitation studies of SMR costs. We find that the costs of achieving a 2oC target are lower with SMRs than without. The costs are higher when large reactors do not compete for market share compared to a world in which they can compete freely. When both SMRs and large reactors compete for market share, reduction in mitigation cost is achieved only under advanced assumptions about SMR technology costs and future cost improvements. While the availability of SMRs could lower mitigation costs by a moderate amount, actual realization of these benefits would depend on the rapid up-scaling of SMRs in the near term. Such rapid deployment could be limited by several social, institutional and behavioral obstacles.

Iyer, Gokul C.↗
DOE OSTI2018

West Nile Virus infection in Northern Italy: Case-crossover study on the short-term effect of climatic parameters

Highlights: • Temperature and precipitation interact with the complex ecology of West Nile Virus. • Climatic parameters have a delayed effect on the human West Nile Virus infection. • Climatic parameters might be used to predict seasonal outbreaks of WNV. Changes in climatic conditions are hypothesized to play a role in the increasing number of West Nile Virus (WNV) outbreaks observed in Europe in recent years.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Migrating Populus with climate change: Phenology, coppice management, cold spell susceptibility, leaf dynamics, and biomass production

Understanding the phenology and productivity of Populus species is crucial for effective management and conservation strategies amid climate change. We investigated leaf budbreak timing, susceptibility to cold damage, leaf dynamics, and biomass production of 168 Populus genotypes with diverse provenances in the southeastern United States. Our study revealed significant variation in budbreak timing across different taxa and years, with genotypes inheriting traits adapted to their parents’ local climates. Temperature emerged as a key factor triggering budbreak, while leaf development depended on other environmental cues such as photoperiod. Notably, budbreak occurred approximately 20 days earlier in 2023 compared to 2022 due to higher accumulated degree days (ADDs). Short-rotation-coppice (SRC) management delayed budbreak by five to ten days. Cold damage was significant in 2023, particularly for genotypes from northern provenances and those with P. maximowiczii parentage. Severe damage was also observed in eastern cottonwood ( Populus deltoides ​× ​ Populus deltoides (D ​× ​D)) genotypes, despite most having southeastern US parentages. Leaf dynamics, including leaf duration and leaf area index (LAI), varied across taxa and sites, with earlier budbreak correlating with extended growing seasons and increased LAI. Biomass production was intricately linked to phenological events, with earlier budbreak leading to increased biomass production and greater susceptibility to cold damage. Our findings highlight the importance of genetics, environment, and coppicing management in understanding and managing Populus phenology and biomass production. These insights provide valuable guidance for developing effective breeding, conservation, and management strategies for Populus species in the context of climate change.

Accumulated degree days (ADDs)↗
DOE OSTI2016

Regional hydrologic response to climate change in the conterminous United States using high-resolution hydroclimate simulations

Despite the fact that Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs have been used to project hydrologic impacts of climate change using off-line hydrologic models for two decades, many of these efforts have been disjointed applications or at least calibrations have been focused on individual river basins and using a few of the available GCMs. This study improves upon earlier attempts by systematically projecting hydrologic impacts for the entire conterminous United States (US), using outputs from ten GCMs from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) archive, with seamless hydrologic model calibration and validation techniques to produce a spatially and temporally consistent set of current hydrologic projections. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was forced with ten-member ensemble projections of precipitation and air temperature that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24 (~4 km) grid resolution for the baseline (1966 2005) and future (2011 2050) periods under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Based on regional analysis, the VIC model projections indicate an increase in winter and spring total runoff due to increases in winter precipitation of up to 20% in most regions of the US. However, decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered days will lead to significant decreases in summer runoff with more pronounced shifts in the time of occurrence of annual peak runoff projected over the eastern and western US. In contrast, the central US will experience year-round increases in total runoff, mostly associated with increases in both extreme high and low runoff. Furthermore, the projected hydrological changes described in this study have implications for various aspects of future water resource management, including water supply, flood and drought preparation, and reservoir operation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fulfilling global climate pledges can lead to major increase in forest land on Tibetan Plateau

The UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow spawned the enhancement and updating of many nations’ climate pledges. Previous research has investigated the effects of these pledges on limiting planetary warming, but their spatially explicit effects on land use/cover are unknown. Here, we linked the Glasgow pledges and the spatially explicit responses of the Tibetan Plateau’s land systems. We found that while fulfilling global climate pledges may not significantly affect the global shares of forestland, grassland/pasture, shrubland, and cropland, it needs a 9.4% increase in the forest area of the Tibetan Plateau. This need is an area 11.4 times the increase of the plateau’s forest in the 2010s, or greater than the size of Belgium. The new forest comes mainly from the medium-density grassland in the Yangtze River basin, calling for more proactive environmental management for the headwaters area of this longest river in Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Climate change impact on residual contaminants under sustainable remediation

This study investigates the potential impact of climate change on residual contaminants in vadose zones and groundwater. We assume that the effect of climate changes can be represented by perturbations in the natural recharge through the aquifer system. We perform numerical modeling of unsaturated/saturated flow and transport and consider different performance metrics: contaminant concentrations at observation wells and contaminant export at the site's boundary. We evaluate the effect of increasing and decreasing recharge as well as the impact of potential failure of surface capping structures employed to immobilize vadose zone contaminants. Our approach is demonstrated in a real case study by simulating transport of non-reactive radioactive tritium at the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site. Results show that recharge changes significantly affect well concentrations: after an initial slight dilution we identify a significant concentration increase at different observation wells some years after the recharge increase and/or the cap failure, as a consequence of contaminants' mobilization. This effect is generally emphasized and occurs earlier as the recharge increases. Under decreased aquifers' recharge the concentration could slightly increase for some years, due to a decrease of dilution, depending on the magnitude of the negative recharge shift. We identify trigger levels of recharge above which the concentration/export breakthrough curves and the time of exceedance of the Maximum Contaminant Level for tritium are remarkably affected. Moreover, we observe that the contaminant export at the control plane, identified as the risk pathway to the downgradient population, may only be minimally affected by shifts in the natural recharge regime, except for some extreme cases. We conclude that more frequent sampling and in-situ monitoring near the source zone should be adopted to better explain concentrations' anomalies under changing climatic conditions. Moreover, the maintenance of the cap is critical not only to sequester residual contaminants in the vadose zone, but also to reduce the uncertainty associated with future precipitation changes. Finally, realistic flow and transport simulations achieved through proper calibration processes, rather than conservative modeling, should be adopted to identify non-trivial trade-offs which enable better allocation of resources towards reducing uncertainty in decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ocean circulation and climate variability in the northern South China Sea during the Greek Minimum derived from coral Δ 14 C and Sr/Ca records

Ocean circulation transports heat, salt and nutrients, and has profound impacts on the marine environment and climate change. However, the seasonal to centennial variations of the paleocirculation of the South China Sea (SCS) and their driving forces are still unclear due to limited records. Here we reconstructed a high-resolution Δ 14 C record of a coral from Sanya to investigate the seasonal variations of the SCS ocean circulation around 2300 cal yr BP during a grand solar minimum (GSM) period. The seasonal Δ 14 C variability shows the influence of coastal upwelling caused by the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) in summer and the effect of water intrusion from the western Pacific Ocean driven by the Kuroshio Intrusion (KI) in winter. Here we compiled the marine radiocarbon reservoir correction (ΔR) records since 2500 cal yr BP, which indicate a gradual decrease of upwelling significantly correlated with the EASM. Comparisons with other climate records suggest that both the EASM and KI may regulate the ocean circulation variability on centennial time scales. As a good index of the sea surface temperature (SST), our Sr/Ca record and spectral analysis results show a low temperature and a low frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events around 2300 cal yr BP. Moreover, the composite coral Sr/Ca-SST and ENSO index records since 2500 cal yr BP show relatively low SST and weak ENSO during GSMs, supporting the modulation of tropical SST and ENSO by solar activity. Our study has provided high-resolution proxy data and revealed the driving forces of ocean circulation and climate change in the SCS at multiple time scales, which should be considered in further modeling work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lacustrine leaf wax hydrogen isotopes indicate strong regional climate feedbacks in Beringia since the last ice age

The Late-Quaternary climate of Beringia remains unresolved despite the region's role in modulating glacial-interglacial climate and as the likely conduit for human dispersal into the Americas. In this work, we investigate Beringian temperature change using an ~32,000-year lacustrine record of leaf wax hydrogen isotope ratios (δ2Hwax) from Arctic Alaska. Based on Monte Carlo iterations accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, the reconstructed summertime temperatures were ~3 °C colder (range: –8 to +3 °C) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21-25 ka) than the pre-industrial era (PI; 2–0.1 ka). This ice-age summer cooling is substantially smaller than in other parts of the Arctic, reflecting altered atmospheric circulation and increased continentality which weakened glacial cooling in the region. Deglacial warming was punctuated by abrupt events that are largely synchronous with events seen in Greenland ice cores that originate in the North Atlantic but which are also controlled locally, such as by the opening of the Bering Strait between 13.4 and 11 ka. Our reconstruction, together with climate modeling experiments, indicates that Beringia responds more strongly to North Atlantic freshwater forcing under modern-day, open-Bering Strait conditions than under glacial conditions. Furthermore, a 2 °C increase (Monte Carlo range: –1 to +5 °C) over the anthropogenic era reverses a 6 °C decline (Monte Carlo range: –10 to 0 °C) through the Holocene, indicating that recent warming in Arctic Alaska has not surpassed peak Holocene summer warmth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets

Stabilizing the global climate will require large-scale global deployment of low-carbon technologies. Even in the presence of aggressive climate policies, however, the diffusion of such technologies may be limited by several, institutional, behavioral, and social factors. In this paper, we review the literature on the sources of such diffusion constraints, and explore the potential implications of such non-economic constraints based on the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our analysis highlights that non-economic factors that limit technology deployment may have sizeable impacts on the feasibility and mitigation costs of achieving stringent stabilization targets. And such impacts are greatly amplified with major delays in serious climate policies. The results generally indicate that constraints on the expansions of CCS and renewables are more costly than those on nuclear or bioenergy, and jointly constraining these technologies leaves some scenarios infeasible.

Iyer, Gokul C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Large-Scale Carbon Removal Will Create Public Health, Economic, and Climate Tradeoffs

Economy-wide efforts to achieve net-zero emissions offer both climate and air quality-related public health benefits from reducing fossil fuel combustion. We explore the expected costs and benefits if carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is deployed at scale in support of these efforts. Six leading forms of CDR at two levels of deployment are compared to a scenario with no U.S. climate action. We find that heavy reliance on CDR avoids a $2.5-5.8 trillion USD2020 in climate damages, provides $2.8-6.5 trillion USD2020 public health benefits, returns $5-6 trillion USD2020 in CDR revenues, but requires $11-13 trillion USD2020 CO2 mitigation cost, cumulatively by 2050 in the U.S. In contrast, lower reliance on CDR requires much deeper near-term fossil-fuel reductions, which increases mitigation costs by 52% but also creates 26% higher public health benefits from reductions in particulate matter- and ozone-related mortality and morbidity, preventing about 12,600 premature deaths by mid-century in the U.S.

Javadi, Parisa↗
DOE OSTI2020

Empirical Evidence for the Potential Climate Benefits of Decarbonizing Light Vehicle Transport in the U.S. with Bioenergy from Purpose-Grown Biomass with and without BECCS

Climate mitigation scenarios limiting global temperature increases to 1.5 °C rely on decarbonizing vehicle transport with bioenergy production plus carbon capture and storage (BECCS), but climate impacts for producing different bioenergy feedstocks have not been directly compared experimentally or for ethanol vs electric light-duty vehicles. A field experiment at two Midwest U.S. sites on contrasting soils revealed that feedstock yields of seven potential bioenergy cropping systems varied substantially within sites but little between. Bioenergy produced per hectare reflected yields: miscanthus > poplar > switchgrass > native grasses ≈ maize stover (residue) > restored prairie ≈ early successional. Greenhouse gas emission intensities for ethanol vehicles ranged from 20 to -179 g CO 2 e MJ –1 : maize stover $\gg$ miscanthus ≈ switchgrass ≈ native grasses ≈ poplar > early successional ≥ restored prairie; direct climate benefits ranged from ~80% (stover) to 290% (restored prairie) reductions in CO 2 e compared to petroleum and were similar for electric vehicles. With carbon capture and storage (CCS), reductions in emission intensities ranged from 204% (stover) to 416% (restored prairie) for ethanol vehicles and from 329 to 558% for electric vehicles, declining 27 and 15%, respectively, once soil carbon equilibrates within several decades of establishment. Extrapolation based on expected U.S. transportation energy use suggests that, once CCS potential is maximized with CO 2 pipeline infrastructure, negative emissions from bioenergy with CCS for light-duty electric vehicles could capture >900 Tg CO 2 e year –1 in the U.S. In the future, as other renewable electricity sources become more important, electricity production from biomass would offset less fossil fuel electricity, and the advantage of electric over ethanol vehicles would decrease proportionately.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying Climate and Catchment Control on Hydrological Drought in the Continental United States

The evolution of hydrological drought events is a result of complex (nonlinear) interactions between climate and catchment processes. To investigate such nonlinear relationship, we integrated a machine learning modeling framework based on the random forest (RF) algorithms with an interpretation framework to quantify the role of climate and catchment controls on hydrological drought. More particularly, our framework interprets a built RF machine-learning model to identify dominant variables and visualize their functional dependence and interaction effects on hydrological drought characteristics utilizing concepts of minimal depth, interactive depth, and partial dependence. We test our proposed modeling framework based on a set of 652 continental United States catchments with minimal human interference for a period of 1979–2010. Application of this framework indicated presence of three distinct drought regimes, which includes, Regime 1: droughts with longer duration, less frequent and lesser intensity; Regime 2: droughts with moderate duration, moderate frequency, and moderate intensity; and Regime 3: droughts with shorter duration, more frequent, and more intense. RF algorithm was able to accurately model the drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and number of events) for all the three drought regimes as a function of selected variables. It was observed that the type of dominant variables as well as their nonlinear functional relationship with hydrological droughts characteristics can vary between three selected regimes. Finally, our interpretation framework indicated that catchment characteristics have a significant role in controlling the hydrologic drought for catchments (regime 1), whereas both climate and catchment characteristics control hydrological drought in regimes 2 and 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Size of the Atmospheric Blocking Events: Scaling Law and Response to Climate Change

Abstract Understanding the response of atmospheric blocking events to climate change has been of great interest in recent years. However, potential changes in the blocking area (size), which can affect the spatiotemporal characteristics of the resulting extreme events, have not received much attention. Using two large‐ensemble, fully coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations, we show that the size of blocking events increases with climate change, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere (by as much as 17%). Using a two‐layer quasi‐geostrophic model and a dimensional analysis technique, we derive a scaling law for the size of blocking events, which shows that area mostly scales with width of the jet times the Kuo scale (i.e., the length of stationary Rossby waves). The scaling law is validated in a range of idealized GCM simulations. Predictions of this scaling law agree well with changes in blocking events' size under climate change in fully coupled GCMs in winters but not in summers.

Nabizadeh, Ebrahim↗
DOE OSTI2019

East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Clouds, Precipitation, and Climate (EAST-AIR CPC )

Aerosols have significant and complex impacts on regional climate in East Asia. Cloud-aerosol-precipitation interaction (CAPI) remains most challenging in climate studies. The quantitative understanding of CAPI requires good knowledge of aerosols, ranging from their formation, composition, transport, as well as their radiative, hygroscopic, and microphysical properties. A comprehensive review is presented here centered on the CAPI based chiefly, but not limited to, publication in the special section named as EAST-AIRcpc, concerning (1) observation of aerosol loading and properties; (2) any relationships between aerosols and meteorological variables affecting CAPI; (3) mechanisms behind CAPI; and (4) quantification of CAPI and their impact on climate. Heavy aerosol loading in East Asia has significant radiative effects by reducing surface radiation, increasing air temperature, and lowering the boundary layer height. A key factor is aerosol absorption which is particularly strong in central China. This absorption can have a wide range of impacts such as creating an imbalance of aerosol radiative forcing at the top and bottom of the atmosphere, leading to inconsistent retrievals of cloud variables from space-borne and ground-based instruments. Aerosol radiative forcing can delay or suppress the initiation and development of convective clouds whose microphysics can be further altered by the microphysical effect of aerosols. For the same cloud thickness, the likelihood of precipitation is influenced by aerosol: suppressing light rain and enhancing heavy rain, delaying but intensifying thunderstorms, and reducing the onset of isolated showers in most parts of China. Rainfall has become more inhomogeneous and more extreme in the heavily polluted urban regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗