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At least 1,441 records · Page 80

Steric Sea Level Rise and Relationships with Model Drift and Water Mass Representation in GFDL CM4 and ESM4

Abstract Density-driven steric seawater changes are a leading-order contributor to global mean sea level rise. However, intermodel differences in the magnitude and spatial patterns of steric sea level rise exist at regional scales and often emerge during the spinup and preindustrial control integrations of climate models. Steric sea level results from an eddy-permitting climate model, GFDL CM4, are compared with a lower-resolution counterpart, GFDL-ESM4. The results from both models are examined through basin-scale heat budgets and watermass analysis, and we compare the patterns of ocean heat uptake, redistribution, and sea level differ in ocean-only [i.e., Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)] and coupled climate configurations. After correcting for model drift, both GFDL CM4 and GFDL-ESM4 simulate nearly equivalent ocean heat content change and global sea level rise during the historical period. However, the GFDL CM4 model exhibits as much as a 40% increase in surface ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean and subsequent increases in horizontal export to other ocean basins after bias correction. The results suggest regional differences in the processes governing Southern Ocean heat export, such as the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), and gyre transport between the two models, and that sea level changes in these models cannot be fully bias-corrected. Since the process-level differences between the two models are evident in the preindustrial control simulations of both models, these results suggest that the control simulations are important for identifying and correcting sea level–related model biases.

Krasting, John P. [a NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dy↗

Characteristics of Ice Cloud–Precipitation of Warm Season Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Great Plains

Abstract In this study, the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are tracked using high-resolution radar and satellite observations over the U.S. Great Plains during April–August from 2010 to 2012. The spatiotemporal variability of MCS precipitation is then characterized using the Stage IV product. We found that the spatial variability and nocturnal peaks of MCS precipitation are primarily driven by the MCS occurrence rather than the precipitation intensity. The tracked MCSs are further classified into convective core (CC), stratiform rain (SR), and anvil clouds regions. The spatial variability and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the SR regions of MCSs are not as significant as those of MCS precipitation. In the SR regions, the high-resolution, long-term ice cloud microphysical properties [ice water content (IWC) and ice water paths (IWPs)] are provided. The IWCs generally decrease with height. Spatially, the IWC, IWP, and precipitation are all higher over the southern Great Plains than over the northern Great Plains. Seasonally, those ice and precipitation properties are all higher in summer than in spring. Comparing the peak timings of MCS precipitation and IWPs from the diurnal cycles and their composite evolutions, it is found that when using the peak timing of IWPSR as a reference, the heaviest precipitation in the MCS convective core occurs earlier, while the strongest SR precipitation occurs later. The shift of peak timings could be explained by the stratiform precipitation formation process. The IWP and precipitation relationships are different at MCS genesis, mature, and decay stages. The relationships and the transition processes from ice particles to precipitation also depend on the low-level humidity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multihour Stratospheric Flights with the Heliotrope Solar Hot-Air Balloon

Standard meteorological balloons can deliver small scientific payloads to the stratosphere for a few tens of minutes, but achieving multihour level flight in this region is more difficult. We have developed a solar-powered hot-air balloon named the heliotrope that can maintain a nearly constant altitude in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere as long as the sun is above the horizon. It can accommodate scientific payloads ranging from hundreds of grams to several kilograms. The balloon can achieve float altitudes exceeding 24 km and fly for days in the Arctic summer, although sunset provides a convenient flight termination mechanism at lower latitudes. Two people can build an envelope in about 3.5 h, and the materials cost about $30. The low cost and simplicity of the heliotrope enables a class of missions that is generally out of reach of institutions lacking specialized balloon expertise. Here, we discuss the design history, construction techniques, trajectory characteristics, and flight prediction of the heliotrope balloon. We conclude with a discussion of the physics of solar hot-air balloon flight.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lidar-Based Evaluation of HRRR Performance in California’s Diablo Range

The performance of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model for capturing low-level winds near a wind energy production site during summer 2019 is evaluated. This study catalogs the ability of HRRR to predict boundary layer dynamics relevant to wind energy interests over complex terrain, which has presented challenges for weather and energy forecasting. Performance is evaluated by comparing HRRR output to wind-profiling Doppler lidars at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site 300. HRRR captured the diurnal profile of horizontal winds in the observed 150-m layer, despite strong underpredictions (∼4 m s −1 ) during evening and nighttime hours. These underpredictions may be a result of local speedup flows observed by the lidars, which were unresolved in HRRR due to their small spatial extent. HRRR bias magnitude relative to observations was found to be minimal during days with synoptic-scale troughs and strong 850-hPa geopotential gradients, while bias magnitude was maximal during days with synoptic ridging and weak 850-hPa geopotential gradients. To translate wind speed predictions to energy forecasting, generic turbine models were used to estimate power generation for turbines characteristic of the nearby Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area. Results show that HRRR-based energy estimates predicted daytime power generation adequately relative to lidar-based estimates with an 18-h lead time (bias magnitude < 0.4 MW from 0900 to 1400 LT) but overpredicted power during the rest of the diurnal cycle (bias > 1 MW). These results demonstrate conditions under which HRRR performs well for wind energy applications in complex terrain, while highlighting biases that require further investigation to support usage of a high-resolution model for wind energy forecasts.

Boundary layer↗

Autonomous Infrared and Small (Wide) Angle X-Ray Scattering (IR-S(W)AXS) Capability

Thin water films are 2-D, nanoconfined layers that form on solid surfaces exposed to humid atmospheres—environments ubiquitous across catalysis, corrosion science, soil science, and subsurface geochemistry. At relative humidity (RH) values below saturation, these films are Å–nm thick and exhibit properties that differ sharply from bulk water, including disrupted H-bonding and impeded mass transport. Owing to their high surface-to-volume ratio, dissolution of the solid can rapidly drive strong supersaturation with respect to secondary phases. Reactivity in thin water films is highly sensitive to film thickness, and critically, thickness evolves during reaction because the hygroscopicity of the interfacial system changes as ions accumulate or diminish in the film and as reaction products transform. To accurately probe and control these dynamics, a capability is needed that can measure and automatically maintain a constant water-film thickness while simultaneously monitoring solid dissolution, nucleation, and growth. This project developed an autonomous Infrared/Small Angle X-ray Scattering-Wide Angle X-ray Scattering (IR/(W)SAXS) for investigating reactivity in thin water films on solid surfaces exposed to humidified gases. The capability consists of an IR spectrometer, a (W)SAXS instrument, and a mass flow controller system for generating variably humidified gas flows to a custom reaction cell. Progress on each of the major components of the capability are detailed below.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Kryptonate Hydrogen Detection System (Final Report)

A prototype model of a multipurpose instrument which demonstrates the applicability of the Kryptonate® technique for detecting hydrogen gas was developed. This report describes the construction of the instrument and presents a laboratory evaluation of its performance. Performance was excellent. The instrument was designed to detect hydrogen in air at concentrations of 0-3% by volume, and to detect hydrogen in nitrogen or other inert gas at concentrations of 0-10% by volume. Other detection levels (both higher and lower) could be set if required. Ultimate response times can be made of the order of 0.5 seconds. The instrument is an all solid state device operating from 120V 60 Hz power source. The instrument has been designed to enable modifications to be made with a minimum amount of difficulty.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods to Forecast Tropospheric Ozone Levels in Delhi

Ground-level ozone is a pollutant that is harmful to urban populations, particularly in developing countries where it is present in significant quantities. It greatly increases the risk of heart and lung diseases and harms agricultural crops. This study hypothesized that, as a secondary pollutant, ground-level ozone is amenable to 24 h forecasting based on measurements of weather conditions and primary pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. We developed software to analyze hourly records of 12 air pollutants and 5 weather variables over the course of one year in Delhi, India. To determine the best predictive model, eight machine learning algorithms were tuned, trained, tested, and compared using cross-validation with hourly data for a full year. The algorithms, ranked by R2 values, were XGBoost (0.61), Random Forest (0.61), K-Nearest Neighbor Regression (0.55), Support Vector Regression (0.48), Decision Trees (0.43), AdaBoost (0.39), and linear regression (0.39). When trained by separate seasons across five years, the predictive capabilities of all models increased, with a maximum R 2 of 0.75 during winter. Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory was the least accurate model for annual training, but had some of the best predictions for seasonal training. Out of five air quality index categories, the XGBoost model was able to predict the correct category 24 h in advance 90% of the time when trained with full-year data. Separated by season, winter is considerably more predictable (97.3%), followed by post-monsoon (92.8%), monsoon (90.3%), and summer (88.9%). These results show the importance of training machine learning methods with season-specific data sets and comparing a large number of methods for specific applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementing and Improving CBMZ-MAM3 Chemistry and Aerosol Modules in the Regional Climate Model WRF-CAM5: An Evaluation over the Western US and Eastern North Pacific

The representation of aerosols in climate-chemistry models is important for air quality and climate change research, but it can require significant computational resources. The objective of this study was to improve the representation of aerosols in climate–chemistry models, specifically in the carbon bond mechanism, version Z (CBMZ), and modal aerosol modules with three lognormal modes (MAM3) in the WRF-CAM5 model. The study aimed to enhance the model’s chemistry capabilities by incorporating biomass burning emissions, establishing a conversion mechanism between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and secondary organic carbons (SOCs), and evaluating its performance against observational benchmarks. The results of the study demonstrated the effectiveness of the enhanced chemistry capabilities in the WRF-CAM5 model. Six simulations were conducted over the western U.S. and northeastern Pacific region, comparing the model’s performance with observational benchmarks such as reanalysis, ground-based, and satellite data. The findings revealed a significant reduction in root-mean-square errors (RMSE) for surface concentrations of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). Specifically, the model exhibited a 31% reduction in RMSE for BC concentrations and a 58% reduction in RMSE for OC concentrations. These outcomes underscored the importance of accurate aerosol representation in climate-chemistry models and emphasized the potential for improving simulation accuracy and reducing errors through the incorporation of enhanced chemistry modules in such models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Desorption lifetimes and activation energies influencing gas–surface interactions and multiphase chemical kinetics

Abstract. Adsorption and desorption of gases on liquid or solid substrates are involved in multiphase processes and heterogeneous chemical reactions. The desorption energy (Edes0), which depends on the intermolecular forces between adsorbate and substrate, determines the residence time of chemical species at interfaces. We show how Edes0 and temperature influence the net uptake or release of gas species, the rates of surface–bulk exchange and surface or bulk reactions, and the equilibration timescales of gas–particle partitioning. Using literature data, we derive a parameterization to estimate Edes0 for a wide range of chemical species based on the molecular mass, polarizability, and oxygen-to-carbon ratio of the desorbing species independent of substrate-specific properties, which is possible because of the dominant role of the desorbing species' properties. Correlations between Edes0 and the enthalpies of vaporization and solvation are rooted in molecular interactions. The relation between Edes0 and desorption kinetics reflects the key role of interfacial exchange in multiphase processes. For small molecules and semi-volatile organics (VOC, IVOC, SVOC), Edes0 values around 10–100 kJ mol−1 correspond to desorption lifetimes around nanoseconds to days at room temperature. Even higher values up to years are obtained at low temperatures and for low volatile organic compounds (LVOC, ELVOC/ULVOC) relevant for secondary organic aerosols (SOA). Implications are discussed for SOA formation, gas–particle partitioning, organic phase changes, and indoor surface chemistry. We expect these insights to advance the mechanistic and kinetic understanding of multiphase processes in atmospheric and environmental physical chemistry, aerosol science, materials science, and chemical engineering.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

VLM4Bio: A Benchmark Dataset to Evaluate Pretrained Vision-Language Models for Trait Discovery from Biological Images

Images are increasingly becoming the currency for documenting biodiversity on the planet, providing novel opportunities for accelerating scientific discoveries in the field of organismal biology, especially with the advent of large vision-language models (VLMs). We ask if pre-trained VLMs can aid scientists in answering a range of biologically relevant questions without any additional fine-tuning. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of 12 state-of-the-art (SOTA) VLMs in the field of organismal biology using a novel dataset, VLM4Bio, consisting of 469K question8 answer pairs involving 30K images from three groups of organisms: fishes, birds, and butterflies, covering five biologically relevant tasks. We also explore the effects of applying prompting techniques and tests for reasoning hallucination on the performance of VLMs, shedding new light on the capabilities of current SOTA VLMs in answering biologically relevant questions using images

Maruf, M [Virginia Tech, Blacksburg]↗