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DOE OSTI2022

Physics makes the difference: Bayesian optimization and active learning via augmented Gaussian process

Abstract Both experimental and computational methods for the exploration of structure, functionality, and properties of materials often necessitate the search across broad parameter spaces to discover optimal experimental conditions and regions of interest in the image space or parameter space of computational models. The direct grid search of the parameter space tends to be extremely time-consuming, leading to the development of strategies balancing exploration of unknown parameter spaces and exploitation towards required performance metrics. However, classical Bayesian optimization (BO) strategies based on the Gaussian process (GP) do not readily allow for the incorporation of the known physical behaviors or past knowledge. Here we explore a hybrid optimization/exploration algorithm created by augmenting the standard GP with a structured probabilistic model of the expected system’s behavior. This approach balances the flexibility of the non-parametric GP approach with a rigid structure of physical knowledge encoded into the parametric model. The fully Bayesian treatment of the latter allows additional control over the optimization via the selection of priors for the model parameters. The method is demonstrated for a noisy version of a standard univariate test function used to evaluate optimization algorithms and further extended to physical lattice models. This methodology is expected to be universally suitable for injecting prior knowledge in the form of physical models and past data in the BO framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1987

A multidomain global modeling technique for analysis of Space Shuttle main engine

A multidomain global modeling technique is presented. The purpose of this multidomain methodology is to simultaneously analyze the three-dimensional compressible flow field in Space Shuttle main engine components. This technique provides flexibility and modularity for individual domain and also simplifies the grid generation task for each domain. A two-way coupling procedure is adopted for exchanging interface boundary conditions. This algorithm which requires that the adjacent domains share an overlapping grid slab, is fully conservative and implicit. For non-matching grid systems and for non-overlapping interfaces, an interpolation and/or extrapolation procedure is used when transferring the interface boundary conditions at the adjacent domains. To maintain overall conservation, a flux correction method is subsequently used. The coupling procedure was verified by modeling several geometries with features similar to SSME components. Satisfactory results for all test cases were obtained. Finally, this algorithm has been applied to the SSME flow simulation.

Tam, L. T.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Vectorizable implicit algorithms for the flux-difference split, three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations

The computational efficiency of four vectorizable implicit algorithms is assessed when applied to calculate steady-state solutions to the three-dimensional, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in general coordinates. Two of these algorithms are characterized as hybrid schemes; that is, they combine some approximate factorization in two coordinate directions with relaxation in the remaining spatial direction. The other two algorithms utilize an approximate factorization approach which yields two-factor algorithms for three-dimensional systems. All four algorithms are implemented in identical high-resolution upwind schemes for the flux-difference split Navier-Stokes equations. These highly nonlinear schemes are obtained by extending an implicit Total Variation Diminishing (TVD) scheme recently developed for linear one-dimensional systems of hyperbolic conservation laws to the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations. The computation of vortical flow over a sharp-edged, thin delta wing has been chosen as a common numerical test case. The convergence of the algorithms is discussed and the accuracy of the computed flow-field results is assessed. The validity of the present results are demonstrated by a comparison with experimental data.

Hartwich, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Airborne radar and radiometer experiment for quantitative remote measurements of rain

An aircraft experiment has been conducted with a dual-frequency (10 GHz and 35 GHz) radar/radiometer system and an 18-GHz radiometer to test various rain-rate retrieval algorithms from space. In the experiment, which took place in the fall of 1988 at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, VA, both stratiform and convective storms were observed. A ground-based radar and rain gauges were also used to obtain truth data. An external radar calibration is made with rain gauge data, thereby enabling quantitative reflectivity measurements. Comparisons between path attenuations derived from the surface return and from the radar reflectivity profile are made to test the feasibility of a technique to estimate the raindrop size distribution from simultaneous radar and path-attenuation measurements.

Kozu, Toshiaki↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1984

ISLSCP - International Satellite Land-Surface Climatology Project

Three workshops have been conducted in order to define a research program which would in the course of five years lead to a concensus on methodologies for the conversion of satellite-measured irradiances into quantitative data concerning the earth's surface. Standardized data analysis algorithms would be the major product of this concensus. The three workshops have recommended the evaluation of retrospective satellite data, starting from the July, 1972 initial operation of Landsat-1, in order to demonstrate whether they can be used to detect climate-related or man-induced changes on the earth's surface quantitatively. Also suggested is the validation of current satellite data with ground truth campaigns in several different regions, and the preparation of an operational phase involving the testing of the selected data extraction algorithms for conversion of satellite-measured radiances into albedo, moisture, and vegetation data.

Rasool, S. I.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Solar-cell interconnect design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

Useful solar cell interconnect reliability design and life prediction algorithms are presented, together with experimental data indicating that the classical strain cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material does not account for the statistical scatter that is required in reliability predictions. This shortcoming is presently addressed by fitting a functional form to experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data, which thereby yields statistical fatigue curves enabling not only the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, but also the quantitative interpretation of data from accelerated thermal cycling tests. Optimal interconnect cost reliability design algorithms are also derived which may allow the minimization of energy cost over the design life of the array field.

Mon, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

UAS Air Traffic Controller Acceptability Study: Evaluating Detect and Avoid Technology and Communication Delays in Simulation - 2

This study evaluated the effects of communications delays and winds on air traffic controller ratings of acceptability of horizontal miss distances (HMDs) for encounters between Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and manned aircraft in a simulation of the Dallas-Ft. Worth (DFW) airspace. Fourteen encounters per hour were staged in the presence of moderate background traffic. Seven recently retired controllers with experience at DFW served as subjects. Guidance provided to the UAS pilots for maintaining a given HMD was provided by information from Detect and Avoid (DAA) self-separation algorithms (Stratway+) displayed on the Multi-Aircraft Control System. This guidance consisted of amber "bands" on the heading scale of the UAS navigation display indicating headings that would result in a loss of well clear between the UAS and nearby traffic. Winds tested were successfully handled by the DAA algorithms and did not affect the controller acceptability ratings of the HMDs. Voice communications delays for the UAS were also tested and included one-way delay times of 0, 400, 1200, and 1800 msec. For longer communications delays, there were changes in strategy and communications flow that were observed and reported by the controllers. The aim of this work is to provide useful information for guiding future rules and regulations applicable to flying UAS in the NAS. Information from this study will also be of value to the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics (RTCA) Special Committee 228 - Minimum Performance Standards for UAS.

Comstock, James R., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Approaches for Synthesis and Deployment of Controller Models on Automated Vehicles for Car-following in Mixed Autonomy

This paper describes the software design patterns and vehicle interfaces that were employed to transition vehicle controllers from simulation environments to open-road field experiments. The approach relies on a life cycle that utilizes model-based design and code generation, along with agile software development, and both software and hardware-in-the-loop testing, with additional safety margins. Autonomous designs should consider the dynamics of mixed autonomy in traffic to safely operate among humans. The software that provides a vehicle’s behavior intelligence is often developed through simulation, which may have a mismatch between dynamics, or as a result of a reinforcement learning workflow, which may be a black box with challenges to analyze. In each of these cases, it is important to have research interfaces that provide strongly typed data streams accessible to researchers who are not software experts while continuing to satisfy safety and liveness constraints. This paper describes how we design the hardware platform interfaces and software design process for a mixed autonomy traffic experiment with a leader-follower scenario. Controller synthesis for these vehicles requires clearly articulated vehicle interfaces and software design patterns for successful onboard deployment. Testing strategies for such controllers are also described before algorithms are transitioned to full-scale field experiments with safety operators for the vehicles. Testing strategies include software-in-the-loop simulation testing, hardware-in-the-loop simulation, ghost-car testing, and read-only testing in live traffic. With our approach, we were not only able to validate our controller synthesized in scripts and simulation, but also able to scale deployment to multiple vehicles.

Bhadani, Rahul↗

NASA NTRS1986

A distributed programming environment for Ada

Despite considerable commercial exploitation of fault tolerance systems, significant and difficult research problems remain in such areas as fault detection and correction. A research project is described which constructs a distributed computing test bed for loosely coupled computers. The project is constructing a tool kit to support research into distributed control algorithms, including a distributed Ada compiler, distributed debugger, test harnesses, and environment monitors. The Ada compiler is being written in Ada and will implement distributed computing at the subsystem level. The design goal is to provide a variety of control mechanics for distributed programming while retaining total transparency at the code level.

Brennan, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancement of Distribution System State Estimation Using Pruned Physics-Aware Neural Networks

Realizing complete observability in the three-phase distribution system remains a challenge that hinders the implementation of classic state estimation algorithms. In this paper, a new method, called the pruned physics-aware neural network (P2N2), is developed to improve the voltage estimation accuracy in the distribution system. The method relies on the physical grid topology, which is used to design the connections between different hidden layers of a neural network model. To verify the proposed method, a numerical simulation based on one- year smart meter data of load consumptions for three-phase power flow is developed to generate the measurement and voltage state data. The IEEE 123-node system is selected as the test network to benchmark the proposed algorithm against the classic weighted least squares (WLS). Numerical results show that P2N2 outperforms WLS in terms of data redundancy and estimation accuracy.

distribution system state estimation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancement of Distribution System State Estimation Using Pruned Physics-Aware Neural Networks: Preprint

Realizing complete observability in the three-phase distribution system remains a challenge that hinders the implementation of classical state estimation algorithms. In this paper, a new method so-called pruned physics-aware neural network (P2N2) is developed to improve the voltage estimation accuracy in the distribution system. The method relies on the physical grid topology, which is used to design the connections between different hidden layers of a neural network model. To verify the proposed method, a numerical simulation based on one-year smart meter data of load consumptions for threephase power flow is developed to generate the measurement and voltage state data. The IEEE 123 node system is selected as the test network to benchmark the proposed algorithm against the classical weighted least squares (WLS). Numerical results show that P2N2 outperforms WLS, in terms of data redundancy and estimation accuracy.

distribution systems state estimation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Error Localization Examples: Looking for a Needle in a Hay-stack

Finite element models (FEM) are routinely developed and used during fabrication of high dollar-value hardware. NASA as part of the pre-flight certification of launch vehicles routinely conducts vibration and static tests to calibrate models used for flight-risk assessments. As part of the calibration process, certain areas in the model are modified, using engineering judgment and sensitivity analysis, to match the test results. Unfortunately, tools to identify problem areas in the FEM using test data directly are scarce. Over the years, Error Localization Algorithms (ELA) have been proposed with very limited success. Recently, the Analytical Dynamics Model Improvement (ADMI) algorithm, which computes closed-form mass and stiffness corrections to match the test data exactly, have been shown to be effective for error localization. The paper will present several FEM example problems where ELA is used with simulated test data to determine FEM problem areas. For each example, the correct answer is shown along with ELA results. It is shown that the ELA process is able to identify general problem areas in the FEM, which are consistent with known model perturbations. However, in most cases the ELA identified area of improvement is larger than the true answer. Nonetheless, with proper optimization tools, calibration results using the ELA identified areas provide excellent results.

error localization↗

DOE OSTI2021

Field Validation of a Smart Energy Recovery Ventilation System Using Low-Cost Indoor Air Quality Sensors

This project is a field validation, using low-cost indoor air quality (IAQ) sensors, of a smart ventilation system that can help low-load homes in humid environments maintain acceptable indoor humidity conditions while providing adequate ventilation according to ASHRAE 62.2. The objectives of this research were to (1) address builders’ concerns with mechanical ventilation in humid environments and (2) answer the question of whether smart control logic helps with occupant comfort and the creation of a more acceptable indoor environment. To address the objectives of the study, the Southface team collected field data for one year in four Charleston, South Carolina, new construction homes in order to determine the differences in occupant comfort; comfort metrics; IAQ; and heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) energy consumption when toggling biweekly between an energy recovery ventilator (ERV) operating continuously and an ERV operating with smart, time-varying humidity control logic. The smart ventilation algorithm under consideration in this field test did create a less humid indoor environment on an annual basis as quantitatively measured through temperature and relative humidity (T/RH) readings, expressed most discernably as “percentage of time above 60% RH” and “percentage of time above 55°F dewpoint.” However, the difference it made was inconsistent during the spring, summer, and fall months, and it was only directionally consistent during the winter months. We suspect that this is primarily due to the long runtimes and concomitant dehumidification activity of the air-conditioning (A/C) units in response to the high sensible loads in Charleston. The effect of the smart ventilation algorithm was not discernable to the occupants in this study, as recorded through seasonal surveys.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1992

Robustness of Spann-Wilson segmentation on SAR imagery

The performances of the Spann-Wilson algorithm on simulated synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images with varying degrees of speckle (one to four looks and varying amounts of white noise) is described. One hundred forty-eight test images are considered, of which the algorithm segmented most without any adjustment to the algorithm's parameters. The effect of speckle on fractal boundaries is studied. The effect of varying multiplicative and additive noise distributions for a fixed set of segmentation parameters is examined. The modified Spann-Wilson algorithm on four-look imagery is evaluated.

Daida, Jason M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Baseline mathematics and geodetics for tracking operations

Various geodetic and mapping algorithms are analyzed as they apply to radar tracking systems and tested in extended BASIC computer language for real time computer applications. Closed-form approaches to the solution of converting Earth centered coordinates to latitude, longitude, and altitude are compared with classical approximations. A simplified approach to atmospheric refractivity called gradient refraction is compared with conventional ray tracing processes. An extremely detailed set of documentation which provides the theory, derivations, and application of algorithms used in the programs is included. Validation methods are also presented for testing the accuracy of the algorithms.

James, R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pressurized-Water Reactor Core Design using Multi-Objective Plant Fuel Reload Optimization Platform

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway Plant Reload Optimization Project aims to develop an integrated, comprehensive framework offering an all-in-one solution for reload evaluations with a special focus on optimization of core design. The optimization of the fuel loading pattern is one of the most important considerations in reducing the amount of new fuel used in the core. Due to thousands of possible options of core configuration, finding optimal solutions is an unachievable task for a human. The Plant ReLoad Optimization (PRLO) platform which supports artificial-intelligence-based reactor core designing is now fully capable of handling realistic problems. The PRLO Platform development project aims to build a reactor core design tool that includes reactor safety and fuel performance analyses and uses artificial intelligence to support the optimization of core design solutions. The NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II) optimizer was developed and tested within RAVEN (Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment) to handle many constraints by using an augmented objectives methodology. The demonstration was performed with constrained multi-objective optimization of a 17 × 17 pressurized-water reactor core loading patterns to minimize fuel cost and maximize fuel cycle length.

42 ENGINEERING↗