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143 records · Page 8

CO 2 zonal injection rate allocation and plume extent evaluation through wellbore temperature analysis

Temperature analysis during a pause in injection operations, known as warmback analysis, has been used in the petroleum industry for evaluating the injection conformance and estimating the location of the flooded front in applications, such as waterflooding oil reservoirs. Here in this work, methods are introduced to extend the application of temperature warmback analysis to estimate the zonal CO 2 injection rate and zonal CO 2 plume extent during geologic CO 2 storage in a saline aquifer. First, novel analytical solutions are developed to model transient temperature in the aquifer during the injection and subsequent shut-in periods considering two-phase flow (gaseous CO 2 and aqueous brine) conditions in the aquifer. The solution involves a discretization of the aquifer into regions; the energy and mass conservation equations for the regions are solved simultaneously considering appropriate boundary conditions at the interfaces. Two solutions techniques are presented: multi-region and three-region solutions. Inverse models are developed accordingly to evaluate the injection profile and estimate the extent of the plume front in the reservoir during the injection period. The multi-region solution results in an inversion approach that requires regression analysis. However, the three-region formulation results in a simple graphical technique for inverse modeling. The analytical solutions are validated against a thermally coupled reservoir simulation tool using different synthetic cases for CO 2 injection in deep saline aquifers. The results of the developed solutions provide a good match with numerical results during forward and inverse modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Mixed Fracture-Matrix Model for Evaluating Well Orientation and Completion Options for the Utah FORGE Site

Orientation and completion for well pairs that have been subjected to multi-zonal stimulation play a critical role in the long-term performance of an Enhanced Geothermal Reservoir. Here we present the development of a methodology to rapidly and efficiently numerically simulate mixed fracture-matrix flow systems for evaluation of well design and completion options. An example evaluation based on a small fracture network representative of FORGE Well 16(A and B)-78(32) follows a discussion of the theory and model validation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

"Hybrid fracture/matrix modeling for well completion options evaluation"

Orientation and completion for well pairs that have been subjected to multi-zonal stimulation play a critical role in the long-term performance of an Enhanced Geothermal Reservoir. Here we present the development of a methodology to rapidly and efficiently numerically simulate mixed fracture-matrix flow systems for evaluation of well design and completion options. The methodology is based on a loose coupling framework, allowing the fracture and matrix systems to be meshed separately. The fracture system includes the integration of fracture growth and aperture data from well stimulation simulations of stochastically generated fracture networks. Automatic mesh refinement is used in the matrix simulation to resolve heat transfer near the fracture network. This simulation framework is used to efficiently determine optimal production and injection well placement using adaptive sampling.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A Mixed Fracture-Matrix Model for Evaluating Well Orientation and Completion Options for the Utah FORGE Site

Orientation and completion for well pairs that have been subjected to multi-zonal stimulation play a critical role in the long-term performance of an Enhanced Geothermal Reservoir. Here we present the development of a methodology to rapidly and efficiently numerically simulate mixed fracture-matrix flow systems for evaluation of well design and completion options. An example evaluation based on a small fracture network representative of FORGE Well 16(A and B)-78(32) follows a discussion of the theory and model validation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Reduced order modeling of a fluidized bed particle receiver for concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage

Oxide particles can serve as both the heat transfer and thermal energy storage (TES) media for next-generation concentrating solar power (CSP) plants where high-temperature TES enables dispatchable electricity from efficient power cycles with firing temperatures above 600 °C. Transferring heat to flowing particles at such high temperatures in a MW-scale central tower receiver remains a challenge for the CSP community. For indirect receivers with external walls to contain the particles, maintaining wall temperatures below the limits of structural metal alloys requires high heat transfer coefficients between the wall and the moving particle stream. Bubbling fluidization of downward-flowing particles can sustain high bed-wall heat transfer coefficients (> 1000 W m -2 K -1 ). Using experimentally calibrated correlations for bed-wall heat transfer and vertical particle dispersion, this study implements an axially discretized zonal model of a counterflow fluidized bed receiver to explore how bubbling fluidization may enable indirect cavity particle receivers. High bed-wall heat transfer coefficients support solar fluxes on angled cavity walls > 200 kW m -2 at peak aperture fluxes of 980 kW m -2 while maintaining external wall temperatures < 950 °C. Lateral particle dispersion enables hotter particles near the receiver leading edge to mix with cooler particles further from the leading edge to lower maximum external wall temperatures. Parametric studies identify how mass fluxes, particle dispersion, and solar concentrations impact indirect receiver thermal efficiency and uniformity for a CSP plant. These studies provide a basis for the design of indirect fluidized-bed cavity receivers that can maintain particle outlet temperatures for TES above 750 °C.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Flow-shear destabilization of multiscale electron turbulence

The impact of sheared ${\mathbf{E} \hskip -1pt \times \hskip -1pt \mathbf{B}}$ flow on multiscale turbulence is studied with nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations. Simulations are based on DIII-D-like, high-confinement mode (H-mode) pedestal parameters in the regime of low ion temperature gradient drive, where there is a broad spectrum of electron temperature gradient (ETG)-driven turbulence. It is found that ${\mathbf{E} \hskip -1pt \times \hskip -1pt \mathbf{B}}$ shear can have a significant effect on ETG-driven electron transport, with an unexpected transition from a turbulence stabilization regime at moderate to large shearing rates $γ_E$ to a novel turbulence destabilization regime at low levels of $γ_E$. In the turbulence stabilization regime, the electron energy flux decreases monotonically with $γ_E$, even when $γ_E$ is small compared to electron mode growth rates. The stabilizing effect comes dominantly from the electron, not ion, gyrokinetic equation. In the novel destabilization regime, reduction of zonal energy results from the interaction of $γ_E$-modulated nonlinear drive in the zonal ion gyrokinetic equation, increasing the electron transport over a broad range of shearing rates. Finally, neither of these effects has been observed in previous electron-scale simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Theory of the Tertiary Instability and the Dimits Shift from Reduced Drift-Wave Models

Tertiary modes in electrostatic drift-wave turbulence are localized near extrema of the zonal velocity U(x) with respect to the radial coordinate x. We argue that these modes can be described as quantum harmonic oscillators with complex frequencies, so their spectrum can be readily calculated. The corresponding growth rate $γ$ TI is derived within the modified Hasegawa-Wakatani model. We show that $γ$TI equals the primary-instability growth rate plus a term that depends on the local U''; hence, the instability threshold is shifted compared to that in homogeneous turbulence. This provides a generic explanation of the well-known yet elusive Dimits shift, which we find explicitly in the Terry-Horton limit. Linearly unstable tertiary modes either saturate due to the evolution of the zonal density or generate radially propagating structures when the shear |U'| is sufficiently weakened by viscosity. The Dimits regime ends when such structures are generated continuously.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A protocol and analysis of year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models and beyond

We propose a protocol to evaluate and analyze year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models (GSRMs). The proposed protocol complements an earlier 40-day simulation protocol under the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains) project to allow the analysis of the seasonal cycle and associated climatic relevant phenomena. This intercomparison aims to reveal how GSRMs, which can simulate mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the global domain, reproduce atmospheric large-scale structures related to convection beyond month-long simulations. The intercomparison for one-year simulations is conducted by either atmosphere-only models or atmosphere–ocean coupled models with atmospheric horizontal mesh sizes less than 5 km. We recommend the continuous four seasons from March 2020 to February 2021 as a target period for the intercomparison but with options for many groups to join more flexibly. The output variables are collected at 0.25° resolution, and archives of a small set of native grid variables are encouraged to analyze tropical cyclones and MCSs. Through the proposed global storm-resolving simulation, we will evaluate the climatological distributions of the atmospheric large-scale circulations, such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoon, midlatitude jets, their time evolution, and the upscale impacts on them. We present sample analyses from a one-year simulation using the 3.5 km mesh Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), revealing the realistic zonal contrast of tropical precipitation, no double ITCZ structure, the reasonable midlatitude jet position and intensity but a weak bias of storm track activities, and a warm bias over the Eurasia during boreal winter. We also clarify the cross-scale interaction, such as the effects of cold pools on mean precipitation over the Maritime Continent through the precipitation diurnal cycle and the effects of resolved gravity waves on midlatitude mean flows. The proposed one-year simulation protocol is referred to as the “Sendai Protocol.” This protocol is not unique or definite for evaluating GSRMs; we prospect a hierarchical set of experiments from short-term to multi-year simulations as GSRM intercomparisons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Gradient Based Subgrid-Scale Parameterization for Ocean Mesoscale Eddies

Mesoscale eddies play an important role in transport of heat and biogeochemical tracers in the global ocean circulation. Resolving these energetic eddies, however, is challenging in ocean general circulation models (OGCM) because it requires a horizontal grid spacing of ≲1/8° that is computationally expensive. As a result, we are required to parameterize mesoscale eddy effects on large-scale ocean flows. In this work, we introduce a new subgrid-scale (SGS) model that is developed based on a Taylor series expansion of resolved variables to parameterize subgrid mesoscale eddy transports and momentum fluxes in OGCM. We have performed an a priori study to evaluate the performance of our new gradient model using high-resolution ocean simulations. Our results show that the gradient model well predicts the actual SGS thickness fluxes in the zonal and meridional directions in coarse-resolution simulations with the grid spacing ≳1/4°. The unresolved kinetic energy at the ocean surface is also skillfully estimated. More importantly, unlike current mesoscale eddy parameterizations, which are mainly developed based on an assumption of flat bottom ocean, our new SGS model can capture the structure of unresolved standing meanders at the ocean surface. We have also developed a dynamic procedure for setting in non-dimensional parameters in our new parameterization through a non-ad hoc and tuning-free method. Overall, this work suggests that implementing the gradient model in OGCM can improve the model accuracy with an affordable computational cost in eddy-permitting and non-eddying simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advantages of a variable‐resolution global climate model in reproducing the seasonal evolution of East Asian summer monsoon

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is unique among monsoon systems that it features meridional evolution of the summer monsoon. In this study, we evaluate the performances of a Variable‐Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) regionally refined over eastern China (14 km) in reproducing the seasonal evolution of EASM precipitation over China. Compared with reference datasets, VR‐CESM shows better performance than the corresponding globally uniform coarse‐resolution model CESM (quasi‐uniform 1°), especially over western China where complex local topography exists. The northward monsoon migration is closely related to low‐level southerly flows and vertical moisture advection, which are more reasonably simulated in VR‐CESM. The four critical timings of the EASM (monsoon onset, withdrawal, peak, and duration) are also better captured in VR‐CESM than in CESM. The corresponding spatial Pearson correlation coefficients of the four critical timings with respect to reference datasets are about 0.1 higher in VR‐CESM than those in CESM. Both models are most accurate in simulating monsoon onset and least accurate at simulating the monsoon peak. The overestimated zonal thermal contrast in CESM is responsible for the earlier monsoon onset and excessive precipitation in September over the Yangtze River valley. Finer resolution in VR‐CESM, especially over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), appears to be a main factor in simulating better zonal thermal contrast and seasonal evolution of the EASM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Impact of Parameterized Lateral Mixing on the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in a Coupled Climate Model

This study examines the impact of changing the lateral diffusion coefficient ARedi on the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The lateral diffusion coefficient ARedi is poorly constrained, with values ranging across an order of magnitude in climate models. The ACC is difficult to accurately simulate, and there is a large spread in eastward transport in the Southern Ocean (SO) in these models. This paper examines how much of that spread can be attributed to different eddy parameterization coefficients. A coarse-resolution, fully coupled model suite was run with A Redi = 400, 800, 1200, and 2400 m 2 s -1 . Additionally, two simulations were run with two-dimensional representations of the mixing coefficient based on satellite altimetry. Relative to the 400 m 2 s -1 case, the 2400 m 2 s -1 case exhibits 1) an 11% decrease in average wind stress from 50° to 65°S, 2) a 20% decrease in zonally averaged eastward transport in the SO, and 3) a 14% weaker transport through the Drake Passage. The decrease in transport is well explained by changes in the thermal current shear, largely due to increases in ocean density occurring on the northern side of the ACC. In intermediate waters these increases are associated with changes in the formation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific. We hypothesize that the deep increases are associated with changes in the wind stress curl allowing Antarctic Bottom Water to escape and flow northward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Persistent meanders and eddies lead to quasi-steady Lagrangian transport patterns in a weak western boundary current

The Brazil Current (BC) is a weak western boundary current flowing along the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean. It is frequently described as a flow with intense mesoscale activity and relatively low volume transport between 5.0 and 10.0 Sv. We use a 13-year eddy-resolving primitive-equation simulation to show that the presence of persistent meanders and eddies leads to characteristic quasi-steady Lagrangian transport patterns, aptly extracted through climatological Lagrangian Coherent Structures (cLCS). The cLCS position the surface expression of the BC core along the 2000-m isobath, in excellent visual agreement with high resolution satellite sea-surface temperature and the model Eulerian mean velocity. The cLCS deformation pattern also responds to zonally persistent cross-shelf SSH transition from positive (high) values near coastline to low (negative) values between 200- and 2000-m and back to positive (high) offshore from the 2000-m isobath. Zonally-paired cyclonic and anticyclonic structures are embedded in this transition, also causing the cLCS to deform into chevrons. An efficient transport barrier is identified close to the 200-m isobath confirmed by limited inshore movement of drogued drifters and accurately indicated by an along slope maxima of climatological strength of attraction. We also show that the persistent cyclonic and anticyclonic structures may induce localized cross-shelf transport. Regions of low climatological strength of attraction coincide with large shelves and with stagnant synthetic trajectories. We also show that cLCS accurately depict trajectories initiated at the location of Chevron’s spill (November 2011) as compared to synthetic and satellite-tracked trajectories, and the outline of the oil from that accident. There is also an agreement between the large-scale oil slicks reaching the Brazilian beaches (from August 2019 to February 2020) and the strength of climatological attraction at the coast. Our work also clarifies the influence of persistent mesoscale structures on the regional circulation. The identification and quantitative description of climatological Lagrangian coherent structures is expected to improve the effectiveness of future emergency response to oil spills, contingency planning, rescue operations, larval and fish connectivity assessment, drifter launch strategies, waste pollutant and marine debris dispersion and destination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convective Momentum Transport and Its Impact on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in E3SM‐MMF

Abstract Convective momentum transport (CMT) is the process of vertical redistribution of horizontal momentum by small‐scale turbulent flows from moist convection. Traditional general circulation models (GCMs) and their multiscale modeling framework (MMF) versions poorly represent CMT due to insufficient information of subgrid‐scale flows at each GCM grid. Here the explicit scalar momentum transport (ESMT) scheme for representing CMT is implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model‐Multiscale Modeling Framework (E3SM‐MMF) with embedded 2‐D cloud‐resolving models (CRMs), and verified against E3SM‐MMF simulations with 3‐D CRMs and observations. The results show that representing CMT by ESMT helps reduce climatological mean precipitation model bias over the western Pacific and the ITCZ regions, which is attributed to the weakened mean easterlies over the Pacific. Also, CMT from simulations with 2‐D and 3‐D CRMs impose a similar impact on Kelvin waves by reducing their variability and slowing down their phase speed, but opposite impacts on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) variability. The ESMT scheme readily captures the climatological mean spatial patterns of the zonal and meridional components of CMT and their variability across multiple time scales, but shows some differences in estimating its magnitude. CMT mainly affects the MJO by decelerating its winds in the free troposphere, but accelerates its near‐surface winds. This study serves as a prototype for implementing CMT scheme in the MMF simulations, highlighting its crucial role in reducing model bias in mean state and spatiotemporal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Smart Ventilation for Advanced California Homes

This project investigated smart ventilation approaches to minimize energy use for providing indoor air quality (IAQ) in high performance new California homes. Evaluation criteria included annual ventilation-related energy, peak energy and time-of-use savings, and the indoor air quality relative to a minimally code-compliant ventilation system. The simulations used CONTAM’s air flow and contaminant transport model, combined with the EnergyPlus building loads model. House types representing the default California Energy Code compliance homes were investigated for four California climate zones, covering a wide range of climate types. Both single and multi-zone smart ventilation controls were investigated. Contaminant sources included contaminants emitted continuously and varying with time, temperature and relative humidity, episodic emissions from occupant activities and outdoor particles. Single-zone ventilation controls that varied ventilation depending on outdoor temperatures were able to consistently save half of ventilation-related energy without compromising long-term IAQ. Ventilation strategies that tracked occupancy were less successful, because this work included generic contaminants with constant background emission rates. Energy performance for occupancy controls improved with a one-hour pre-occupancy flush out strategy. The addition of zoning ventilation controls did not offer significant IAQ to energy improvements compared to non-zonal versions of the same ventilation system type. The best controls had HVAC energy savings of 10-20%, with individual cases reaching up to 40% savings. However, these savings cannot be achieved without worsening personal exposures for at least one contaminant. A metric is needed to assess the competing changes in exposure to different contaminants in order to determine the net-health impacts of a control strategy. Controls that directly sensed contaminants and controlled them to acceptable levels showed that the California OEHHA limit for formaldehyde completely dominates system performance, with homes not able to meet the limit even with continuous operation of a fan sized to twice the current code minimum.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Generation of shear flows induced by AE / EPM in LHD plasma

The generation of shear flows (SFs) by Alfven Eigenmodes (AEs) and energetic particle modes (EPMs) have important effects on the operation of future nuclear fusion reactors, because SFs regulate the saturation of the AEs/EPMs, the transport of EPs and thermal plasma, as well as the formation of transport barriers among other consequences. The aim of this study is the analysis of SFs generation during the saturation phase of AEs and EPMs in LHD plasma. Experiments performed in the 23rd and 24th LHD experimental campaigns are dedicated to explore the destabilization of AEs/EPMs in discharges with different heating patterns, thermal plasma and magnetic field configurations. In particular, the shots 176490 and 179697 show the destabilization of MHD bursts and energetic-ion-driven resistive interchange modes (EIC), respectively. Charge exchange spectroscopy measurements in both discharges indicate that the generation of SFs by AE/EPM is uncorrelated with the perturbation induced by the neutral beam injector (NBI). Nonlinear simulations performed using the gyro-fluid code FAR3d show the generation of zonal structures, especially SFs, induced during the saturation phase of Toroidal Alfven Eigenmodes (TAEs) triggered in the MHD burst as well as by the 1/1 EIC in the bursting phase. The simulations indicate that SFs are caused by the radial electric fields powered by energy transfers from the unstable AE/EPM towards the thermal plasma. The strongest SFs are measured during the EIC bursting phase once the 1/1 EPM overlaps with nearby resonances at the plasma periphery. Likewise, the largest SFs during the MHD burst are observed once TAEs radially overlap in the inner-middle plasma region.

AE↗

The Intrinsic 150‐Day Periodicity of the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract The variability of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical large‐scale circulation is dominated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whose timescale is extensively used as a key metric in evaluating state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Past observational and theoretical studies suggest that the SAM lacks any internally generated (intrinsic) periodicity. Here, we show, using observations and a climate model hierarchy, that the SAM has an intrinsic 150‐day periodicity. This periodicity is robustly detectable in the power spectra and principal oscillation patterns (aka dynamical mode decomposition) of the zonal‐mean circulation, and in hemispheric‐scale precipitation and ocean surface wind stress. The 150‐day period is consistent with the predictions of a new reduced‐order model for the SAM, which suggests that this periodicity is associated with a complex interaction of turbulent eddies and zonal wind anomalies, as the latter propagate from low to high latitudes. These findings present a rare example of periodic oscillations arising from the internal dynamics of the extratropical turbulent circulations. Based on these findings, we further propose a new metric for evaluating climate models, and show that some of the previously reported shortcomings and improvements in simulating SAM's variability connect to the models' ability in reproducing this periodicity. We argue that this periodicity should be considered in evaluating climate models and understanding the past, current, and projected Southern Hemisphere climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗