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At least 145 records · Page 8

Co-processing catalytic fast pyrolysis oil in an FCC reactor

Here, studies of co-processing catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) oil with vacuum gas oil (VGO) are conducted in a Davison Circulating Riser (DCR). The CFP oil (CFPO) for this study was produced by upgrading fast-pyrolysis vapors from pine in an ex-situ fixed-bed reactor. CFPOs were co-processed at up to a volume fraction of 0.05 with VGO at 521 degrees C and 257 kPa. The yields of oil, aqueous phase, tail gas, and coke were measured. The amount of coke was determined from the carbon containing components in the regenerator flue gas. A compositional analysis was conducted with gas chromatography and elemental analyzers. The organic liquids were distilled into gasoline, jet-fuel, diesel, and resid fractions. A biocarbon analysis was conducted on the organic phase and its individual boiling-point fractions. The results show a small decrease in liquid yield and a generally increased gas yield when co-processing CFPO with VGO. The experiments showed that 75%-100% of biocarbon is incorporated into liquid fuels relative to fossil carbon, depending on catalyst and CFPO. The measurements indicate that cracked CFPO components are predominantly included in the jet-fuel and diesel fractions. A techno-economic analysis (TEA) estimated the minimum fuel selling price (MSFP) for fuel-range products derived from FCC co-processing of CFPO at 24 to 29 $\$$/GJ ($\$$2.90 to $\$$3.50 per gasoline-gallon equivalent; GGE) at a yield of 4.87-7.14 GJ/t(biomass) or 40-58 GGE/t.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Co-Processing Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis Oil in an FCC Reactor

Studies of co-processing catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) oil with vacuum gas oil (VGO) are conducted in a Davison Circulating Riser (DCR). The CFP oil (CFPO) for this study was produced by upgrading fast-pyrolysis vapors from pine in an ex-situ fixed-bed reactor. CFPOs were co-processed at up to 5 vol% with VGO at 521°C and 2.57 bar. The yields of oil, aqueous phase, tail gas, and coke were measured. The amount of coke was determined from the carbon containing components in the regenerator flue gas. A compositional analysis was conducted with gas chromatography and elemental analyzers. The organic liquids were distilled into gasoline, jet-fuel, diesel, and resid fractions. A biocarbon analysis was conducted on the organic phase and its individual boiling-point fractions. The results show a small decrease in liquid yield and a generally increased gas yield when co-processing CFPO with VGO. For experiments with E-Cat as catalyst, approximately 70% of biocarbon is incorporated into liquid fuels relative to fossil carbon, while more of the biocarbon is contained in tail gas (as carbon dioxide or olefins) and/or coke. The measurements indicate that cracked CFPO components are predominantly included in the jet-fuel and diesel fractions. A techno-economic analysis (TEA) estimated the minimum fuel selling price (MSFP) for fuel-range products derived from FCC co-processing of CFPO at $3 to $4 per gasoline-gallon equivalent (GGE) at a yield of 51 GGE per ton of biomass.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fracture toughness and crack propagation in LX-17 and PBX 9502 insensitive high explosives

High explosive materials, and in particular insensitive high explosive (IHE) materials, are of significant interest. TATB-based LX-17 and PBX 9502 are two IHE’s and mechanical properties are an important metric of performance. In this work we present, for the first time, a study of fracture as a function of temperature and displacement rate and starter crack length on billet pressed IHE materials using a standard three point bend technique. We demonstrated that the technique can yield consistent results over time by measuring samples from the same lots 4 years later and observed that the fracture toughness of LX-17 and PBX 9502 are similar. We also determined the temperature dependence for different starter crack lengths and found that the fracture toughness generally decreases with larger starter crack sizes and temperatures. For the LX-17, where a wide temperature range of -60 C to 50 C was investigated, the impact of temperature on fracture toughness between -20 C and 23 C was less than expected. For the PBX 9502 we observed the difference in fracture toughness values between -20 C and 23 C did depend on the particular lot, and also there was a tendency of the fracture toughness to scale with the tensile strength. We also investigated the effect of a lower displacement rate and observed that while the impact on the fracture toughness was relatively small, the samples surprisingly did not break (fail) after exceeding the peak load. We took advantage of this to perform x-ray computed tomography (CT) of the samples to image crack propagation in the intact samples. We observed that cracks were generally straight and unaffected by the microstructure in the LX-17, in contrast to the PBX 9502 where the direction of the cracks would frequently change and were likely influenced by the underlying microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Seeking Repeating Anthropogenic Seismic Sources: Implications for Seismic Velocity Monitoring at Fault Zones

Abstract Seismic velocities in rocks are highly sensitive to changes in permanent deformation and fluid content. The temporal variation of seismic velocity during the preparation phase of earthquakes has been well documented in laboratories but rarely observed in nature. It has been recently found that some anthropogenic, high‐frequency (>1 Hz) seismic sources are powerful enough to generate body waves that travel down to a few kilometers and can be used to monitor fault zones at seismogenic depth. Anthropogenic seismic sources typically have fixed spatial distribution and provide new perspectives for velocity monitoring. In this work, we propose a systematic workflow to seek such powerful seismic sources in a rapid and straightforward manner. We tackle the problem from a statistical point of view, considering that persistent, powerful seismic sources yield highly coherent correlation functions (CFs) between pairs of seismic sensors. The algorithm is tested in California and Japan. Multiple sites close to fault zones show high‐frequency CFs stable for an extended period of time. These findings have great potential for monitoring fault zones, including the San Jacinto Fault and the Ridgecrest area in Southern California, Napa in Northern California, and faults in central Japan. However, extra steps, such as beamforming or polarization analysis, are required to determine the dominant seismic sources and study the source characteristics, which are crucial to interpreting the velocity monitoring results. Train tremors identified by the present approach have been successfully used for seismic velocity monitoring of the San Jacinto Fault in previous studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Particle signal considerations for isotope ratio analysis with single particle multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry

Particle analysis has benefitted from the advent of single particle inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (spICP-MS) due to its robustness, sensitivity, and high-throughput nature. Previous methods of spICP-MS have typically utilized quadrupole or time-of-flight mass analyzers and therefore employ electron multiplier-based detectors (such as secondary electron multipliers or microchannel plates). However, to obtain precise measurements on elemental or isotopic ratios within individual particles, multi-collector ICP-MS (MC-ICP-MS) can be used. Here, we investigate Ce isotope ratios, specifically 142 Ce/ 140 Ce, by spMC-ICP-MS using an all-Faraday cup collector array. Using 1 μm (diameter) cerium dioxide particles, integration times of the Faraday cup detectors were varied from 50–500 ms. The signal from the cerium isotopes in the particles was used to determine isotope ratios, which closely matched the expected natural isotopic abundances. Due to the signal decay response from the Faraday cups, the signal from particles lasts much longer than the expected 1–2 ms (up to 100 s of ms). To explore this effect on isotope ratio analysis, multiple ratio analysis methods were used to determine how to obtain optimal precision and accuracy. Relative differences were around 2% for methods that calculated isotope ratios from summing the total signal of an individual particle before calculating the ratio (rather than using every data point individually). It was found that summing all data points per particle, or integrating under the signal peak, yielded both accurate and precise isotope ratios within the particle population. Particles were also sampled off a solid substrate via microextraction, and isotope ratios were determined with relative differences of 0.13% to 9%. This demonstrates the ability to use spMC-ICP-MS to obtain isotope ratios on particles, with little to no relative difference in comparison to the expected ratio, even when operating Faraday detectors at fast 50 ms integration times.

Szakas, Sarah E. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

Photosynthetic responses of switchgrass to light and CO 2 under different precipitation treatments

Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L .) is a prominent bioenergy crop with robust resilience to environmental stresses. However, our knowledge regarding how precipitation changes affect switchgrass photosynthesis and its responses to light and CO 2 remains limited. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a field precipitation experiment with five different treatments, including −50%, −33%, 0%, +33%, and +50% of ambient precipitation. To determine the responses of leaf photosynthesis to CO 2 concentration and light, we measured leaf net photosynthesis of switchgrass under different CO 2 concentrations and light levels in 2020 and 2021 for each of the five precipitation treatments. We first evaluated four light and CO 2 response models (i.e., rectangular hyperbola model, nonrectangular hyperbola model, exponential model, and the modified rectangular hyperbola model) using the measurements in the ambient precipitation treatment. Based on the fitting criteria, we selected the nonrectangular hyperbola model as the optimal model and applied it to all precipitation treatments, and estimated model parameters. Overall, the model fit field measurements well for the light and CO 2 response curves. Precipitation change did not influence the maximum net photosynthetic rate ( P max ) but influenced other model parameters including quantum yield ( α ), convexity ( θ ), dark respiration ( Rd ), light compensation point ( LCP ), and saturated light point ( LSP ). Specifically, the mean P max of five precipitation treatments was 17.6 μmol CO 2 m −2 s −1 , and the ambient treatment tended to have a higher P max . The +33% treatment had the highest α , and the ambient treatment had lower θ and LCP , higher Rd , and relatively lower LSP . Furthermore, precipitation significantly influenced all model parameters of CO 2 response. The ambient treatment had the highest P max , largest α , and lowest θ , R d , and CO 2 compensation point LCP . Overall, this study improved our understanding of how switchgrass leaf photosynthesis responds to diverse environmental factors, providing valuable insights for accurately modeling switchgrass ecophysiology and productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Large-Eddy Simulation Study of Flow and Combustion Dynamics in a Full-Scale Hydrogen–Air Rotating Detonation Combustor-Stator Integrated System

In the present work, a first-of-its-kind three-dimensional (3D) large-eddy simulation (LES) study is conducted to numerically investigate the combustion dynamics as well as aero-thermal phenomena in a full-scale nonpremixed hydrogen–air rotating detonation engine (RDE) (with a diverging-shaped lower-end wall), when integrated with nozzle guide vanes (NGV) acting as the turbine stator. The wall-modeled LES framework incorporates hydrogen–air detailed chemical kinetics and adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). A comparative analysis is carried out for two operating conditions with different fuel/air mass flow rates but global equivalence ratio of unity, and considering RDE configurations without and with stator. The LES model is validated against available experimental data for the low mass flux condition with respect to detonation wave speed/height, wave dynamics, and axial static pressure distribution. Numerical results indicate significant deflagrative combustion occurring in the fill region near the inner wall due to formation of recirculation zones in the injection near-field driven by the backward facing step. The leading detonation wave is found to be trailed by an azimuthal reflected-shock combustion (ARSC) wave, consistent with experimental observations, which consumes unburned vitiated reactants that leak through the main detonation wave. The main detonation wave characteristics, such as detonation wave speed/height and combustion efficiency, do not change appreciably with the presence of NGV. A novel combustion diagnostic technique based on chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA) is employed to quantify the fraction of heat release occurring in the detonative mode versus deflagrative mode for the simulated conditions. The exit flow is found to be nearly fully subsonic and supersonic for the low and high mass flux conditions, respectively. Further analysis of the exit flow profiles shows that the presence of NGV renders the flow more axial and significantly impacts the exit Mach number and total pressure, while the total temperature shows negligible change. In addition, the low mass flux operating point, despite exhibiting more deflagrative losses within the combustor, yields overall lower pressure drop from plenum to exhaust, which is mainly attributed to lower pressure drop across the injectors. Lastly, the rotating detonation engine-nozzle guide vanes (RDE-NGV) configuration exhibits higher total pressure loss compared to rotating detonation engine (RDE) without stator across both the mass flux conditions. In conclusion, this study extends the state-of-the-art in numerical modeling of pressure gain combustion (PGC) systems by demonstrating high-fidelity 3D reacting LES of full-scale RDE-NGV systems relevant to RDE-turbine integration for stationary power generation.

Combustion↗

Building Structure-Property Relationships of Cycloalkanes in Support of Their Use in Sustainable Aviation Fuels

In 2018 13.7 EJ of fuel were consumed by the global commercial aviation industry. Worldwide, demand will increase into the foreseeable future. Developing Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs), with decreased CO 2 and soot emissions, will be pivotal to the on-going mitigation efforts against global warming. Minimizing aromatics in aviation fuel is desirable because of the high propensity of aromatics to produce soot during combustion. Because aromatics cause o-rings to swell, they are important for maintaining engine seals, and must be present in at least 8 vol% under ASTM-D7566. Recently, cycloalkanes have been shown to exhibit some o-ring swelling behavior, possibly making them an attractive substitute to decrease the aromatic content of aviation fuel. Cycloalkanes must meet specifications for a number of other physical properties to be compatible with jet fuel, and these properties can vary greatly with the cycloalkane chemical structure, making their selection difficult. Building a database of structure-property relationships (SPR) for cycloalkanes greatly facilitates their furthered inclusion into aviation fuels. The work presented in this paper develops SPRs by building a data set that includes physical properties important to the aviation industry. The physical properties considered are energy density, specific energy, melting point, density, flashpoint, the Hansen solubility parameter, and the yield sooting index (YSI). Further, our data set includes cycloalkanes drawn from the following structural groups: fused cycloalkanes, n-alkylcycloalkanes, branched cycloalkanes, multiple substituted cycloalkanes, and cycloalkanes with different ring sizes. In addition, a select number of cycloalkanes are blended into Jet-A fuel (POSF-10325) at 10 and 30 wt%. Comparison of neat and blended physical properties are presented. One major finding is that ring expanded systems, those with more than six carbons, have excellent potential for inclusion in SAFs. Our data also indicate that polysubstituted cycloalkanes have higher YSI values.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

ELG×LRG Distribution through Dark Matter Halo Dynamics

We investigate the clustering and halo occupation distribution (HOD) of DESI Y1 emission-line (ELGs) and luminous red (LRGs) galaxies at 0.8 < z < 1.1, including their cross-correlation (ELG×LRG), using the A BACUS S UMMIT suite and a new Halo Occupation Model (H OME ) for galaxy multitracers. This integrates intrahalo dynamics, halo exclusion, and quenching, bridging insights from hydrodynamical, HOD, abundance-matching, and semianalytic studies. Leveraging full phase-space information from the Uchuu N-body simulation, and sampling satellites from dark-matter particle positions via physically motivated prescriptions, Home reproduces the anisotropic clustering down to s = 200 h −1 kpc with unprecedented accuracy. Model parameters are inferred solely from two-point statistics using a two-level Bayesian framework, yielding high-fidelity ELG, LRG, and cross-reference catalogs. We find that satellite ELGs behave as incoherent flows within their parent halos, dominating the clustering below 4 h −1 Mpc. The HOD from the best-fit Home has the following properties: (i) 90.50% (85.91%) of ELGs (LRGs) are central galaxies without satellites, residing in halos of M vir ∼ 6.6 × 10 11 (1.2 × 10 13 ) h −1 M ⊙ ; (ii) the ELG×LRG cross-correlation is governed by central-central pairs and shaped by halo exclusion on 2–5 h −1 Mpc scales; (iii) 9.50% (14.09%) of ELGs (LRGs) are satellites, of which 1.09% (3.52%) inhabit halos with a central galaxy of the same species in a maximally conformal configuration, 7.02% (0.005%) orbit complementary hosts in a minimally conformal state, and 0.58% (10.57%) are orphans. The high sensitivity of Home precisely captures the dynamics of satellites in different host environments, opening a promising avenue for understanding systematics and the dynamical nature of dark matter, potentially distinguishing gravity models.

Favole, Ginevra [Universidad de La Laguna (Spain);↗

Blade and Rim Seal Design of a First Stage High Pressure Turbine for a 300 MWe Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle

A first stage high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade is optimized for a 300 MWe supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycle using the surrogate-assisted genetic algorithm optimizer in Numeca FINE/Design 3D with objectives of increasing efficiency and decreasing heat load to the blade. The National Institute of Standards and Technology Reference Fluid Thermodynamic and Transport Properties Database (NIST REFPROP) [1] data for supercritical CO2 is formatted into tables of bicubic polynomial coefficients for use in condensable gas simulations in FINE/Turbo. Nearly 3000 unique shapes are evaluated via three-dimensional Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes simulations, yielding increases in efficiency of up to 0.85 percentage points and decreases in heat load of 14%. A final blade, deemed the advanced blade, is chosen for future experimental analysis. Following this, a squealer tip optimization is performed on both the baseline and advanced blade designs. This optimization resulted in a performance gain of 1.25 points in efficiency and 15% reduction in tip heat load compared to the baseline flat tip design at the same clearance. In tandem, an optimization of the rotor-stator platform rim seal is performed using a parametrized geometry allowing for straight, meandering, and knife seal cavities. This multi-objective optimization focuses on decreasing the cooling mass flow and increasing the heat flux from the rotor and stator disk. The optimization resulted in cooling mass flow decreases of up to 26% while maintaining the average heat flux on the rim seal.

Tuite, Logan↗

Coupled chemo-mechanical modeling of point-defect diffusion in a crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform framework

Below the yield strength and at moderate-to-high homologous temperatures, the inelastic deformation of metals is mostly governed/rate-controlled by vacancy diffusion-mediated processes. As a function of grain size, stress, temperature and dislocation content, vacancies (or atoms) can adopt preferential diffusion paths across grain interiors, along grain boundaries, or towards and along dislocations, resulting in climb and self-climb. In the steady state and under constant load, grain boundary and grain bulk vacancy diffusion-mediated plasticity have been described in seminal works by Coble and by Nabarro and Herring, respectively. Yet, the interplay between all aforementioned potential diffusion pathways has not been comprehensively mapped. This work presents a thermodynamically-consistent full-field model integrated within a voxel-based elasto-viscoplastic fast Fourier transform framework, which considers the coupling between the diffusion-mediated plasticity mechanisms. In the proposed approach, the kinetics and kinematics of plastic deformation due to vacancy diffusion along grain boundaries and grain bulk, as well as the exchange between grain boundaries and bulk are described explicitly. A homogenization approach at the voxel level is further introduced to simultaneously consider bulk and grain boundary diffusion in a numerically efficient fashion. The new formulation predicts the expected strain rate dependencies and the scaling of the steady-state creep rate with respect to grain size, temperature, and stress. Finally, the model predicts the transition from grain bulk to grain boundary-dominated diffusion with reduction in grain size, a significant step towards capturing transitions in deformation behavior without any phenomenological or ad-hoc adjustments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Integrating multi-modal remote sensing, deep learning, and attention mechanisms for yield prediction in plant breeding experiments

In both plant breeding and crop management, interpretability plays a crucial role in instilling trust in AI-driven approaches and enabling the provision of actionable insights. The primary objective of this research is to explore and evaluate the potential contributions of deep learning network architectures that employ stacked LSTM for end-of-season maize grain yield prediction. A secondary aim is to expand the capabilities of these networks by adapting them to better accommodate and leverage the multi-modality properties of remote sensing data. In this study, a multi-modal deep learning architecture that assimilates inputs from heterogeneous data streams, including high-resolution hyperspectral imagery, LiDAR point clouds, and environmental data, is proposed to forecast maize crop yields. The architecture includes attention mechanisms that assign varying levels of importance to different modalities and temporal features that, reflect the dynamics of plant growth and environmental interactions. The interpretability of the attention weights is investigated in multi-modal networks that seek to both improve predictions and attribute crop yield outcomes to genetic and environmental variables. This approach also contributes to increased interpretability of the model's predictions. The temporal attention weight distributions highlighted relevant factors and critical growth stages that contribute to the predictions. The results of this study affirm that the attention weights are consistent with recognized biological growth stages, thereby substantiating the network's capability to learn biologically interpretable features. Accuracies of the model's predictions of yield ranged from 0.82-0.93 R 2 ref in this genetics-focused study, further highlighting the potential of attention-based models. Further, this research facilitates understanding of how multi-modality remote sensing aligns with the physiological stages of maize. The proposed architecture shows promise in improving predictions and offering interpretable insights into the factors affecting maize crop yields, while demonstrating the impact of data collection by different modalities through the growing season. By identifying relevant factors and critical growth stages, the model's attention weights provide valuable information that can be used in both plant breeding and crop management. The consistency of attention weights with biological growth stages reinforces the potential of deep learning networks in agricultural applications, particularly in leveraging remote sensing data for yield prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the use of hyperspectral and LiDAR UAV time series data for explaining/interpreting plant growth stages within deep learning networks and forecasting plot-level maize grain yield using late fusion modalities with attention mechanisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Grassmannian Diffusion Maps--Based Dimension Reduction and Classification for High-Dimensional Data

This work introduces the Grassmannian diffusion maps (GDMaps), a novel nonlinear dimensionality reduction technique that defines the affinity between points through their representation as low-dimensional subspaces corresponding to points on the Grassmann manifold. Here, the method is designed for applications, such as image recognition and data-based classification of constrained high-dimensional data where each data point itself is a high-dimensional object (i.e., a large matrix) that can be compactly represented in a lower-dimensional subspace. The GDMaps is composed of two stages. The first is a pointwise linear dimensionality reduction wherein each high-dimensional object is mapped onto the Grassmann manifold representing the low-dimensional subspace on which it resides. The second stage is a multipoint nonlinear kernel-based dimension reduction using diffusion maps to identify the subspace structure of the points on the Grassmann manifold. To this end, an appropriate Grassmannian kernel is used to construct the transition matrix of a random walk on a graph connecting points on the Grassmann manifold. Spectral analysis of the transition matrix yields low-dimensional Grassmannian diffusion coordinates embedding the data into a low-dimensional reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Further, a novel data classification/recognition technique is developed based on the construction of an overcomplete dictionary of reduced dimension whose atoms are given by the Grassmannian diffusion coordinates. Three examples are considered. First, a "toy" example shows that the GDMaps can identify an appropriate parametrization of structured points on the unit sphere. The second example demonstrates the ability of the GDMaps to revealing the intrinsic subspace structure of high-dimensional random field data. In the last ex- ample, a face recognition problem is solved considering face images subject to varying illumination conditions, changes in face expressions, and occurrence of occlusions. The technique presented high recognition rates (i.e., 95% in the best case) using a fraction of the data required by conventional methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

On the Recoverability of Reactor Dynamics from Point Kinetics Data using SINDYc

Data driven models for reactor dynamics tend to face a few notable challenges. First, the broad range of timescales present across the various feedback mechanisms. Next, high standards for safety and importance of model performance in all operational domains. Finally, the correlations between state variables observed in most transients leads to difficulties when methods attempt to attribute certain dynamic phenomena to a particular cause. The current paper seeks to support efforts towards incorporating physics knowledge into one particular data-driven method for finding reactor dynamics called ``Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDYc). The incorporation of physical knowledge into SINDYc will help address the challenges listed above by giving the model an initial understanding of the system being modeled. The demonstration of an exact representation of a set of point reactor dynamics equations in SINDYc is provided. Then, this allows for further discussion with mathematical justification as to why SINDYc, and other data-driven methods, may be difficult to apply to nuclear reactor dynamics due to correlations in the state variables. A particularly useful result of this work is the set of candidate functions required in SINDYc to exactly represent the reactor dynamics under a point approximation. In the future, SINDYc can be integrated with point models for reactor dynamics before being applied to the physical system to yield higher accuracy.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Theoretical Kinetics Predictions for Reactions on the NH 2 O Potential Energy Surface

Recent modeling studies of ammonia oxidation, which are motivated by the prospective role of ammonia as a zero-carbon fuel, have indicated significant discrepancies among the existing literature mechanisms. In this study, high-level theoretical kinetics predictions have been obtained for reactions on the NH 2 O potential energy surface, including the NH 2 + O, HNO + H, and NH + OH reactions. These reactions have previously been highlighted as important reactions in NH 3 oxidation with high sensitivity and high uncertainty. The potential energy surface is explored with coupled cluster calculations, including large basis sets and high-level corrections to yield high-accuracy (~0.2 kcal/mol 2σ uncertainty) estimates of the stationary point energies. Variational transition state theory is used to predict the microcanonical rate constants, which are then incorporated in master equation treatments of the temperature- and pressure-dependent kinetics. For radical–radical channels, the microcanonical rates are obtained from variable reaction coordinate transition state theory implementing directly evaluated multireference electronic energies. The analysis yields predictions for the total rate constants as well as the branching ratios. We find that the NO + H 2 channel contributes 10% of the total NH 2 + O flux at combustion temperatures, although this channel is not included in modern NH 3 oxidation mechanisms. Modeling is used to illustrate the ramifications of these rate predictions on the kinetics of NH 3 oxidation and NO x formation. Finally, the present results for NH 2 + O are important for predicting the chain branching and formation of NO in the oxidation of NH 3 and thermal DeNO x .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multiple-core-hole resonance spectroscopy with ultraintense X-ray pulses

Understanding the interaction of intense, femtosecond X-ray pulses with heavy atoms is crucial for gaining insights into the structure and dynamics of matter. One key aspect of nonlinear light–matter interaction was, so far, not studied systematically at free-electron lasers—its dependence on the photon energy. Here, we use resonant ion spectroscopy to map out the transient electronic structures occurring during the complex charge-up pathways of xenon. Massively hollow atoms featuring up to six simultaneous core holes determine the spectra at specific photon energies and charge states. We also illustrate how different X-ray pulse parameters, which are usually intertwined, can be partially disentangled. The extraction of resonance spectra is facilitated by the possibility of working with a constant number of photons per X-ray pulse at all photon energies and the fact that the ion yields become independent of the peak fluence beyond a saturation point. Our study lays the groundwork for spectroscopic investigations of transient atomic species in exotic, multiple-core-hole states that have not been explored previously.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

Search for a heavy neutral lepton that mixes predominantly with the tau neutrino

We report a search for a heavy neutral lepton (HNL) that mixes predominantly with ν τ . The search utilizes data collected with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric energy e + e − collider. The data sample was collected at and just below the center-of-mass energies of the ϒ ( 4 S ) and ϒ ( 5 S ) resonances and has an integrated luminosity of 915 fb − 1 , corresponding to ( 836 ± 12 ) × 10 6 e + e − → τ + τ − events. We search for production of the HNL (denoted N ) in the decay τ − → π − N followed by its decay via N → μ + μ − ν τ . The search focuses on the parameter-space region in which the HNL is long-lived, so that the μ + μ − originate from a common vertex that is significantly displaced from the collision point of the KEKB beams. Consistent with the expected background yield, one event is observed in the data sample after application of all the event-selection criteria. We report limits on the mixing parameter of the HNL with the τ neutrino as a function of the HNL mass. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗