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At least 145 records · Page 8

Diffusion in the lower stratosphere as determined from lidar measurements of volcanic aerosol dispersion

Lidar measurements of the stratospheric aerosol layer from the Fuego volcanic eruption in 1974 are analyzed to yield estimates of effective vertical mixing coefficients K(z). The data at 19 deg N latitude give K(z) = 6.6 x 10 to the 2nd sq cm/sec for the altitude range of 19 + or - 1.5 km, while the data at 37 deg N yield K(z) = 13 x 10 to the 2nd sq cm/sec for 19 + or - 3.5 km. The variability in these values is about a factor of 2. These derived K(z) values are interpreted as being due mainly to diffusion.

Remsberg, E. E.↗

Use of LARS system for the quantitative determination of smoke plume lateral diffusion coefficients from ERTS images of Virginia

A technique for measuring smoke plume of large industrial sources observed by satellite using LARSYS is proposed. A Gaussian plume model is described, integrated in the vertical, and inverted to yield a form for the lateral diffusion coefficient, Ky. Given u, wind speed; y sub l, the horizontal distance of a line of constant brightness from the plume symmetry axis a distance x sub l, downstream from reference point at x=x sub 2, y=0, then K sub y = u ((y sub 1) to the 2nd power)/2 x sub 1 1n (x sub 2/x sub 1). The technique is applied to a plume from a power plant at Chester, Virginia, imaged August 31, 1973 by LANDSAT I. The plume bends slightly to the left 4.3 km from the source and estimates yield Ky of 28 sq m/sec near the source, and 19 sq m/sec beyond the bend. Maximum ground concentrations are estimated between 32 and 64 ug/cu m. Existing meteorological data would not explain such concentrations.

Blais, R. N.↗

Boundedness regions of discrete-time dynamic systems

Techniques for obtaining quantitative information about boundedness properties are developed and applied to the sampled-data control of satellite attitude with quantization. Relevant stability concepts are introduced as a series of definitions, and interrelationships between various definitions are discussed. The boundedness regions are estimated by means of quadratic Liapunov functions, and a sufficient condition for the existence of a boundedness region is given for a certain class of systems. A quadratic Liapunov function is applied to the Lur'e-Postinkov class of systems, where the linear part of the system is not asymptotically stable and the quantizer represents the nonlinear characteristic. A numerical calculation of the region of boundedness estimates is performed for satellite attitude control and is compared with simulation results. It is tentatively concluded that the Liapunov results may be good and that simulation results may be difficult to interpret and time-consuming to generate. The Lur'e-based technique yields estimates of regions of absolute boundedness, but at the cost of greater analytical complexity.

Siljak, D.↗

Sensitivity of the simulation of passive neutron emission from UF 6 cylinders to the uncertainties in both 19 F(α,n) energy spectrum and thick target yield of 234 U in UF 6

Interest in safeguards verification measurements using passive thermal neutron counting to assay 235 U content in large 30B UF 6 canisters has grown in recent years. Here, the prohibitively high cost and impracticality of using reference 30B calibration cylinders extensively will likely make accurate simulations of increasing interest. Accuracy of the simulated response will define the confidence in the predicted response and the extent to which simulations can reasonably be relied upon. With 234 U driven 19 F(α, n) reactions being the main neutron source in low enriched UF 6 the uncertainties of the 19 F(α, n) energy spectrum and the thick target yield of 234 U in UF 6 propagate into the uncertainty in the predicted response and represent a major influence of basic nuclear data. Here sensitivity of the simulated total (Singles) and coincidence (Doubles) count rates are assessed for the Passive Neutron Enrichment Meter using six potential 19 F(α, n) neutron energy spectra over a range of enrichments and material distributions. The results indicate that variations in the Singles and Doubles due to simulated (α, n) neutron spectrum are less than 1.5% for this set of simulated neutron spectra, with dependence varying inversely with enrichment. Singles uncertainty is only slightly less than that of the thick target 19 F(α, n) yield corresponding to the primary neutron source, whereas the 19 F(α, n) yield dependence of the Doubles is reduced by the non-negligible 238 U(SF) coincident neutron emissions. Based on available thick target 19 F(α, n) yield estimates the uncertainty is on the order of 5%, establishing this as the main nuclear data limitation when simulating thermal neutron detectors response for 30B UF 6 storage cylinders. Based on these findings, it appears that the measurement and evaluation of the thick target 19 F(α, n) yield for uranium hexafluoride is due.

19F(α,n) neutron spectrum↗

The winds of high luminosity late-type bright stars

The occurrence and characteristics of the Fe II line asymmetries were studied to determine the radial dependence of the wind velocity for each star. The dependence of the Fe II profiles on spectral type and luminosity class and thus the variation of the velocity fields with stellar type was also investigated. This allows the generality of the results reported for alpha Ori by Carpenter (1984b) to be judged. In addition, new atomic data was used along with observations of the C II (UV 0.01) multiplet to estimate N(sub e) in the stellar winds. Measures of relative Fe II fluxes can be used in a probability-of-escape model to determine the opacity and hydrogen column density versus height in the chromosphere of each star. Finally, analysis of the fluorescent Fe II lines (pumped by Ly alpha) near 2507 A will yield estimates of the intrinsic stellar Ly alpha flux that cannot be measured directly because of interstellar and circumstellar absorption. One important goal of the effort was to acquire high resolution spectra of the whole 2300 to 3200 A region of 13 luminous K and M stars as a data base that will be enormously valuable in planning observations with the Hubble Space Telescope High Resolution Spectrograph. It is also proposed to follow up the recent discovery of significant variations in the Fe II chromospheric emission line profiles from the M-giant Gamma Cru for the purpose of determining the underlying cause of the variations.

Stencel, Robert E.↗

Structure in the 3D Galaxy Distribution. III. Fourier Transforming the Universe: Phase and Power Spectra

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a relatively straightforward analysis of the complex 3D Fourier transform of galaxy coordinates derived from redshift surveys. Numerical demonstrations of this approach are carried out on a volume-limited sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey redshift survey. The direct unbinned transform yields a complex 3D data cube quite similar to that from the Fast Fourier Transform of finely binned galaxy positions. In both cases, deconvolution of the sampling window function yields estimates of the true transform. Simple power spectrum estimates from these transforms are roughly consistent with those using more elaborate methods. The complex Fourier transform characterizes spatial distributional properties beyond the power spectrum in a manner different from (and we argue is more easily interpreted than) the conventional multipoint hierarchy. We identify some threads of modern large-scale inference methodology that will presumably yield detections in new wider and deeper surveys.

Galaxies↗

Structure in the 3D Galaxy Distribution: III. Fourier Transforming the Universe: Phase and Power Spectra

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a relatively straightforward analysis of the complex 3D Fourier transform of galaxy coordinates derived from redshift surveys. Numerical demonstrations of this approach are carried out on a volume-limited sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey redshift survey. The direct unbinned transform yields a complex 3D data cube quite similar to that from the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of finely binned galaxy positions. In both cases deconvolution of the sampling window function yields estimates of the true transform. Simple power spectrum estimates from these transforms are roughly consistent with those using more elaborate methods. The complex Fourier transform characterizes spatial distributional properties beyond the power spectrum in a manner different from (and we argue is more easily interpreted than) the conventional multi-point hierarchy. We identify some threads of modern large scale inference methodology that will presumably yield detections in new wider and deeper surveys.

Galactic clusters↗

Statics and dynamics of Giacobini-Zinner magnetic tail

The data gathered by the International Cometary Explorer during its traversal of Comet Giacobini-Zinner's tail are subjected to stress balance requirements, yielding estimates of unmeasured quantities. It is noted that the comet's tail is embedded in an ionosheath whose static pressure is nearly equal to the solar wind stagnation pressure, leading to a large lobe field strength. A systematic variation is found in the ion temperature across the tail, implying the variation of the pickup velocity of new ions. Axial stress balance yields an expression for the strength of the lobe field which reveals weak variation with axial distance.

Siscoe, G. L.↗

Energy and maximum norm estimates for nonlinear conservation laws

We have devised a technique that makes it possible to obtain energy estimates for initial-boundary value problems for nonlinear conservation laws. The two major tools to achieve the energy estimates are a certain splitting of the flux vector derivative f(u)(sub x), and a structural hypothesis, referred to as a cone condition, on the flux vector f(u). These hypotheses are fulfilled for many equations that occur in practice, such as the Euler equations of gas dynamics. It should be noted that the energy estimates are obtained without any assumptions on the gradient of the solution u. The results extend to weak solutions that are obtained as point wise limits of vanishing viscosity solutions. As a byproduct we obtain explicit expressions for the entropy function and the entropy flux of symmetrizable systems of conservation laws. Under certain circumstances the proposed technique can be applied repeatedly so as to yield estimates in the maximum norm.

Olsson, Pelle↗

Bulk Comptonization of the Cosmic Microwave Background by Extragalactic Jets as a Probe of their Matter Content

We propose a method for estimating the composition, i.e. the relative amounts of leptons and protons, of extragalactic jets which exhibit Chandra - detected knots in their kpc scale jets. The method relies on measuring, or setting upper limits on, the component of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation that is bulk-Comptonized by the cold electrons in the relativistically flowing jet. These measurements, along with modeling of the broadband knot emission that constrain the bulk Lorentz factor GAMMA of the jets, can yield estimates of the jet power carried by protons and leptons. We provide an explicit calculation of the spectrum of the bulk-Comptonized (BC) CMB component and apply these results to PKS 0637 - 752 and 3C 273, two superluminal quasars with Chandra - detected large scale jets. What makes these sources particularly suited for such a procedure is the absence of significant non-thermal jet emission in the 'bridge', the region between the core and the first bright jet knot, which guarantees that most of the electrons are cold there, leaving the BC scattered CMB radiation as the only significant source of photons in this region. At lambda = 3.6 - 8.0 microns, the most likely band to observe the BC scattered CMB emission, the Spitzer angular resolution (approximately 1" - 3") is considerably smaller than the the 'bridges' of these jets (approximately 10"), making it possible to both measure and resolve this emission.

Georganopoulos, Markos↗

The Large-Grained Dust Coma of 174P/Echeclus

On 2005 December 30, Y.-J. Choi and P. R. Weissman discovered that the formerly dormant Centaur 2000 EC98 was in strong outburst. Previous observations by P. Rousselot et al. spanning a 3-year period indicated a lack of coma down to the 27 mag arcsec 2 level.We present Spitzer Space Telescope MIPS observations of this newly active Centaur--now known as 174P/Echeclus (2000 EC98)--or 60558 Echeclus--taken in 2006 late February. The images show strong signal at both the 24 and 70 micron bands and reveal an extended coma about 2' in diameter. Analyses yield estimates of the coma signal contribution that are in excess of 90% of the total signal in the 24 micron band. Dust production estimates ranging from 1.7-4 x 10(exp 2) kg/s are on the order of 30 times that seen in other Centaurs. Simultaneous visible-wavelength observations were also obtained with Palomar Observatory's 200-inch telescope, the 1.8-m Vatican Advanced Technology Telescope, the Bohyunsan Optical Astronomy Observatory (BOAO) 1.8-m telescope, and Table Mountain Observatory's 0.6-m telescope, revealing a coma morphology nearly identical to the mid-IR observations. The grain size distribution derived from the data yields a log particle mass power-law with slope parameter (alpha) = -0.87 +/- 0.07, and is consistent with steady cometary-activity, such as that observed during the Stardust spacecraft's encounter at 81P/Wild 2, and not with an impact driven event, such as that caused by the Deep Impact experiment.

Bauer, James M.↗

Date Release Report for Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) Nevada National Security Site

The DTRA sponsored 2020-2022 Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) consists of two large ground surface chemical explosions, data collection, analysis and modeling carried out in 2020-2022. The LSECE chemical explosions were carried out at the site of prior NNSA sponsored buried chemical explosions that were part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase II in Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG). This report described the data collected under LSECE that is being made publicly available. The prior buried explosion DAG data are described in a separate report (https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1825534) and are also publicly available. The LSECE explosions, data analysis and numerical modeling work sponsored by DTRA were intended to address three objectives: 1) Generate seismo-acoustic data to test and improve numerical models of explosion energy coupling in dry alluvium geology; 2) To improve seismo-acoustic yield estimation techniques as a function of depth and medium properties; 3) To study and improve acoustic propagation modeling under two different atmospheric conditions. The LSECE data that were collected have expanded the prior DAG buried explosion dataset to include surface chemical explosions recorded on a common set of seismo-acoustic stations. They have allowed a more detailed study of above and below surface seismo-acoustic energy coupling with applications to explosion monitoring and assessment. The two approximately 1-ton TNT equivalent yield LSECE explosions were detonated at different times of the day to explore the effects of the different atmospheric conditions. The first chemical explosion “Artemis” was conducted before dawn when temperature inversions were present. The second chemical explosion “Apollo” was conducted on a sunny afternoon when the temperature gradient was more linear. The LSECE chemical explosion data were also collected across a variety of different sensor types to allow evaluation of their effectiveness in recovering useful information. The LSECE instrumentation included fiber optic or Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), a dense array or Large-N array of seismometers, borehole accelerometers, DAS and a velocity meter, airborne acoustic instruments and a variety of visual and remote sensing data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Measurement of diurnal and semidiurnal rotational variations and tidal parameters of Earth

We discuss the determination of diurnal and semidiurnal variations in the rotation rate and the direction of rotation axis of Earth from the analysis of 8 years of very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) data. This analysis clearly show that these variations are largely periodic and tidally driven; that is, the periods of the variations correspond to the periods of the largest lunar and solar tides. For rotation rate variations, expressed in terms of changes in universal time (UT), the tidal lines with the largest observed signals are O1 (amplitude 23.5 microseconds in time (microseconds), period 25.82 solar hours); KL (18.9 microseconds, 23.93 hours); M2 (17.9 microseconds, 12.54 hours); and S2 (8.6 microseconds, 12.00 hours). For variations in the direction of the rotation axis (polar motion), significant signals exist in the retrograde semidiurnal band at the M2 and S2 tides (amplitudes 265 and 119 microarc seconds (microarc seconds, respectively); the prograde diurnal band at the O1, K1, and P1 tides (amplitudes 199, 152, and 60 microarc seconds, respectively); and the prograde semidiurnal band at the M2 and K2 tides (amplitudes 58 and 39 microarc seconds, respectively). Variations in the retrograde diurnal band are represented by corrections with previous estimates except that a previously noted discrepancy in the 13.66-day nutation (corresponding to the O1 tide) is largely removed in this new analysis. We estimate that the standard deviations of these estimates are 1.0 microseconds for the UT1 variations and 14-16 microarc seconds for the polar motion terms. These uncertainties correspond to surface displacements of approximately 0.5 mm. From the analysis of atmospheric angular momentum data we conclude that variations in UT1 excited by the atmosphere with subdaily periods are small (approximately 1 microsecond). We find that the average radial tidal displacements of the VLBI sites in the diurnal band are largely consistent with known deficiencies in current tidal models, i.e., deficiencies of up to 0.9 mm in the treatment of the free core nutation resonance. In the semidiurnal band, our analysis yields estimates of the second-degree harmonic radial Love number h(sub 2) at the M2 tide of 0.604 + i0.005 +/- 0.002. The most likely explanation for the rotational variations are the effects of ocean tides, but there may also be some contributions from atmospheric tides, the effects of triaxiality of Earth, and the equatorial second-degree-harmonic components of the core- mantle boundary.

Herring, Thomas A.↗

System Estimates Radius of Curvature of a Segmented Mirror

A system that estimates the global radius of curvature (GRoC) of a segmented telescope mirror has been developed for use as one of the subsystems of a larger system that exerts precise control over the displacements of the mirror segments. This GRoC-estimating system, when integrated into the overall control system along with a mirror-segment- actuation subsystem and edge sensors (sensors that measure displacements at selected points on the edges of the segments), makes it possible to control the GROC mirror-deformation mode, to which mode contemporary edge sensors are insufficiently sensitive. This system thus makes it possible to control the GRoC of the mirror with sufficient precision to obtain the best possible image quality and/or to impose a required wavefront correction on incoming or outgoing light. In its mathematical aspect, the system utilizes all the information available from the edge-sensor subsystem in a unique manner that yields estimates of all the states of the segmented mirror. The system does this by exploiting a special set of mirror boundary conditions and mirror influence functions in such a way as to sense displacements in degrees of freedom that would otherwise be unobservable by means of an edge-sensor subsystem, all without need to augment the edge-sensor system with additional metrological hardware. Moreover, the accuracy of the estimates increases with the number of mirror segments.

Rakoczy, John↗

Argentina Food Security & Agriculture: Crop Monitoring and Forecasting for Argentina using NASA Satellite Observations

Early harvest information helps guide agricultural commodity assessments in Argentina, providing valuable planning information to identify potentially food-insecure regions, anticipate transportation and storage demands, predict price fluctuations, and project commodity trends. However, crop yield estimates are currently subjective, based on interviews with qualified informants (i.e., farmers, agribusiness actors). In partnership with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, we leveraged Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) NASA Earth observations to develop a Google Earth Engine (GEE) toolset to monitor vegetation growth. The first component of the toolset produces spatial and temporal maps of temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), allowing users to visualize the influence of the region’s climate and weather. Next, we developed an autoregressive model to predict NDVI several months in advance. Lastly, we created a linear regression model of crop yield and NDVI for soybeans, corn, and wheat, and input the forecasted NDVI to generate a predicted crop yield output. The NDVI forecasting model produced accurate predictions at two, four, and six months when examining the most recent growing season. In the crop yield model, soybeans exhibited moderately strong correlation, wheat had consistent weak correlation, and corn varied from weak to strong correlation depending on zone. This information is vital for vegetation growth monitoring by identifying areas of high growth and allocating resources to areas of lower growth to efficiently maximize crop yields.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to sub-hourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of these approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating the Allen and Walker correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons were performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The two models predict annual clipping loss more accurately than simple hourly power limit clipping, with the Allen method typically being slightly more accurate at typical ILR values and the Walker method often being slightly more accurate at high ILR values The models can improve accuracy over the status quo clipping approach up to 3 percentage points in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models: Preprint

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to inter-hourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of said approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating two different clipping correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons will be performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The models can improve accuracy up to 3% in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

clipping↗

GPS Estimates of Integrated Precipitable Water Aid Weather Forecasters

Global Positioning System (GPS) meteorology provides enhanced density, low-latency (30-min resolution), integrated precipitable water (IPW) estimates to NOAA NWS (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis tration Nat ional Weather Service) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to provide improved model and satellite data verification capability and more accurate forecasts of extreme weather such as flooding. An early activity of this project was to increase the number of stations contributing to the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) GPS meteorology observing network in Southern California by about 27 stations. Following this, the Los Angeles/Oxnard and San Diego WFOs began using the enhanced GPS-based IPW measurements provided by ESRL in the 2012 and 2013 monsoon seasons. Forecasters found GPS IPW to be an effective tool in evaluating model performance, and in monitoring monsoon development between weather model runs for improved flood forecasting. GPS stations are multi-purpose, and routine processing for position solutions also yields estimates of tropospheric zenith delays, which can be converted into mm-accuracy PWV (precipitable water vapor) using in situ pressure and temperature measurements, the basis for GPS meteorology. NOAA ESRL has implemented this concept with a nationwide distribution of more than 300 "GPSMet" stations providing IPW estimates at sub-hourly resolution currently used in operational weather models in the U.S.

Moore, Angelyn W.↗