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At least 145 records · Page 8

State of the art, gaps, and prospects in fusion materials theory and modelling

Advancing the theory and simulation of materials for fusion applications remains a key component of global roadmaps aimed at delivering much-needed fusion power. Especially as the drive for commercial application increases, prototypes must be designed against radiation damage before the relevant experimental data can be collected and cost reductions that are possible by testing materials in silico become even more important. Here, we summarise the state of the art as it emerged during the 7 th Fusion Materials Theory & Modelling Workshop that took place in 2024, with the aim to highlight present gaps and future directions for the fusion materials modelling community. Of particular interest were the effects of transmutations, chemical complexity with the development of novel alloys and interatomic potentials, advancements in modelling high-dose microstructures, comparison with experimental data and multiscale models for structural assessment relying on high-performance computing and virtual reality.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DeepONet-grid-UQ: A trustworthy deep operator framework for predicting the power grid’s post-fault trajectories

This paper proposes a novel data-driven method for the reliable prediction of the power grid’s post-fault trajectories, i.e., the power grid’s dynamic response after a disturbance or fault. Here, the proposed method is based on the recently proposed concept of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets). Unlike traditional neural networks that learn to approximate functions, DeepONets are designed to approximate nonlinear operators, i.e., mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces. Under this operator framework, we design a novel and efficient DeepONet that (i) takes as inputs the trajectories collected before and during the fault and (ii) outputs the predicted post-fault trajectories. In addition, we endow our method with the much-needed ability to balance efficiency with reliable/trustworthy predictions via uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose and compare two novel methods that enable quantifying the predictive uncertainty. First, we propose a Bayesian DeepONet (B-DeepONet) that uses stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution of the DeepONet trainable parameters. Then, we design a Probabilistic DeepONet (Prob-DeepONet) that uses a probabilistic training strategy to enable quantifying uncertainty at virtually no extra computational cost. Finally, we validate the proposed methods’ predictive power and uncertainty quantification capability using the New York-New England power grid model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Protein-ligand binding affinity prediction using multi-instance learning with docking structures

Recent advances in 3D structure-based deep learning approaches demonstrate improved accuracy in predicting protein-ligand binding affinity in drug discovery. These methods complement physics-based computational modeling such as molecular docking for virtual high-throughput screening. Despite recent advances and improved predictive performance, most methods in this category primarily rely on utilizing co-crystal complex structures and experimentally measured binding affinities as both input and output data for model training. Nevertheless, co-crystal complex structures are not readily available and the inaccurate predicted structures from molecular docking can degrade the accuracy of the machine learning methods. We introduce a novel structure-based inference method utilizing multiple molecular docking poses for each complex entity. Our proposed method employs multi-instance learning with an attention network to predict binding affinity from a collection of docking poses. We validate our method using multiple datasets, including PDBbind and compounds targeting the main protease of SARS-CoV-2. The results demonstrate that our method leveraging docking poses is competitive with other state-of-the-art inference models that depend on co-crystal structures. This method offers binding affinity prediction without requiring co-crystal structures, thereby increasing its applicability to protein targets lacking such data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating scalar turbulent fluxes with slow-response sensors in the stable atmospheric boundary layer

Conventional and recently developed approaches for estimating turbulent scalar fluxes under stable atmospheric conditions are evaluated, with a focus on gases for which fast sensors are not readily available. First, the relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) classical approach and a recently proposed mixing length parameterization, labeled A22, are tested against eddy-covariance computations. Using high-frequency measurements collected from two contrasting sites (the frozen tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and a sparsely vegetated grassland in Wendell, Idaho, during winter), it is shown that the REA and A22 models outperform the conventional Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) utilized widely to infer fluxes from mean gradients. Second, scenarios where slow trace gas sensors are the only viable option in field measurements are investigated using digital filtering applied to fast-response sensors to simulate their slow-response counterparts. With a filtered scalar signal, the observed filtered eddy-covariance fluxes are referred to here as large-eddy-covariance (LEC) fluxes. A virtual eddy accumulation (VEA) approach, akin to the REA model but not requiring a mechanical apparatus to separate the gas flows, is also formulated and tested. A22 outperforms VEA and LEC in predicting the observed unfiltered (total) eddy-covariance (EC) fluxes; however, VEA can still capture the LEC fluxes well. This finding motivates the introduction of a sensor response time correction into the VEA formulation to offset the effect of sensor filtering on the underestimated net averaged fluxes. The only needed parameter for this correction is the mean velocity at the instrument height, a surrogate of the advective timescale. The VEA approach is very suitable and simple to use with gas sensors of intermediate speed (∼ 0.5 to 1 Hz) and with conventional open- or closed-path setups.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quality Control Methods for Advanced Metering Infrastructure Data

While urban-scale building energy modeling is becoming increasingly common, it currently lacks standards, guidelines, or empirical validation against measured data. Empirical validation necessary to enable best practices is becoming increasingly tractable. The growing prevalence of advanced metering infrastructure has led to significant data regarding the energy consumption within individual buildings, but is something utilities and countries are still struggling to analyze and use wisely. In partnership with the Electric Power Board of Chattanooga, Tennessee, a crude OpenStudio/EnergyPlus model of over 178,000 buildings has been created and used to compare simulated energy against actual, 15-min, whole-building electrical consumption of each building. In this study, classifying building type is treated as a use case for quantifying performance associated with smart meter data. This article attempts to provide guidance for working with advanced metering infrastructure for buildings related to: quality control, pathological data classifications, statistical metrics on performance, a methodology for classifying building types, and assess accuracy. Advanced metering infrastructure was used to collect whole-building electricity consumption for 178,333 buildings, define equations for common data issues (missing values, zeros, and spiking), propose a new method for assigning building type, and empirically validate gaps between real buildings and existing prototypes using industry-standard accuracy metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Measurement of the Higgs boson mass and width using the four-lepton final state in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV

A measurement of the Higgs boson mass and width via its decay to two 𝑍 bosons is presented. Proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, is used. The invariant mass distribution of four leptons in the on-shell Higgs boson decay is used to measure its mass and constrain its width. This yields the most precise single measurement of the Higgs boson mass to date, 125.04 ± 0.12 GeV, and an upper limit on the width Γ 𝐻 < 330 MeV at 95% confidence level. A combination of the on- and off-shell Higgs boson production decaying to four leptons is used to determine the Higgs boson width, assuming that no new virtual particles affect the production, a premise that is tested by adding new heavy particles in the gluon fusion loop model. This result is combined with a previous CMS analysis of the off-shell Higgs boson production with decay to two leptons and two neutrinos, giving a measured Higgs boson width of 3.0$^{+2.0}_{−1.5}$ MeV, in agreement with the standard model prediction of 4.1 MeV. The strength of the off-shell Higgs boson production is also reported. The scenario of no off-shell Higgs boson production is excluded at a confidence level corresponding to 3.8 standard deviations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Quasi-Steady Simulation of Glaze Ice Accretion and Heat Transfer in the Supercooled Large Droplet Regime in Atmospheric Turbulent Air Flow

Abstract To avoid the use of a computationally intensive full unsteady simulation while providing an accurate solution, a quasi-steady simulation has been performed to study glaze and mixed ice accretion in the supercooled large droplet (SLD) regime in turbulent flow of atmospheric air. We have attempted to find the minimum time-step necessary to adequately simulate the icing process on an airfoil surface. Based on node displacement, a mesh morphing scheme has been adopted in the computations to account for the moving boundaries that are caused by the continuous ice buildup. We have modeled ice accretion on an airfoil surface for a time period of 232 s using several time steps. At each time-step we solved the steady-state conservation equations for the air and droplet phases and then used the results as initial conditions for the next time position. The magnitude of the time-step ranged from a least accurate two-shot simulation (where the time-step is 116 s) to a most accurate 2320-shot simulation (where the time-step is 0.1 s). In-between these two extreme time steps, we have performed a three-shot simulation (where the time-step is 77.33 s), a four-shot simulation (where the time-step is 58 s), a six-shot simulation (where the time-step is 38.67 s), a 46-shot simulation (where the time-step is 5 s), and a 232-shot simulation (where the time-step is 1 s). We have done so to find out the degree of accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the multishot simulation approach and to find out the appropriate time-step needed for a successful and valid quasi-steady simulation. A valid quasi-steady simulation needs to use a time-step that is small enough to reproduce the full time-dependent solution within a very small error band. We have found that both the 1 s and the 0.1 s time steps produce virtually identical results. This is the primary litmus test that proves the validity of the quasi-steady-state assumption. The results adopted in this paper are thus all based on the more conservative 0.1 s time-step. In the process of performing the simulations, remeshing was required in order to maintain the grid density in zones of high curvature to be able to capture the full physics in those zones. After successfully modeling glaze ice accretion over the airfoil surface using the 0.1 s quasi-steady simulation approach, the effects of supercooled large droplets (SLDs) impacting the surface have been examined and presented in terms of the variation of the local collection efficiency, the water film thickness, and the heat transfer rate. Examination of the variation of the angle that the ice horn makes with the airfoil chord line demonstrated a 20% improvement in angle prediction when the time-step is reduced from 116 s to 0.1 s. The analysis also reveals a 12% or 8.5% increase in the maximum collection efficiency, βmax, depending on whether the value of the liquid water content (LWC) has been doubled from 0.5 g/m3 to 1 g/m3, or the value of the freestream velocity has been doubled from 75 m/s to 150 m/s, respectively. Because of the need to monitor the local collection efficiency and convective heat fluxes at each shot (regardless of the number of shots employed), the approach adopted here was found to be effective in successively and successfully reproducing the curvature of the glaze ice horn.

Engineering↗

Active learning strategy for high fidelity short-term data-driven building energy forecasting

The quality of a data-driven model is heavily dependent on the quality of data. Data from building operation often have data bias problems, which means that the data sample is collected in a way that some members of the intended data population are less likely to be included than others. Data-driven energy forecasting models built on such data hence are biased and could lead to large forecasting errors. Active learning—an effective method to defying data bias—is rarely studied or applied in the area of data-driven building energy forecasting modeling. This paper attempts to fill this gap and explores the application of active learning in data-driven building energy forecasting. The developed strategy in this paper efficiently generate informative training data within a time budget and uses block design to passively consider weather disturbances. The developed active learning strategy is applied and evaluated in both virtual and real-building testbeds against traditional data-driven methods. Via these virtual and real-building evaluation cases, we have demonstrated that the data bias problem typically exists in building operation data is resolved by applying the developed active learning strategy. Furthermore, building energy forecasting models trained from data generated from the active learning strategy have shown improved performances in both model accuracy and model extendibility perspectives. The effectiveness of the block design module is also validated to effectively consider the impact of weather conditions on active learning design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Aerosol Microphysics and Chemical Measurements at Mt. Soledad and Scripps Pier during the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) from February 2023 to February 2024 UCSD Library Collection

This dataset includes guest instrument measurements and other PI products for aerosol microphysics and chemical measurements collected at Mt. Soledad and Scripps Pier during the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) from February 2023 to February 2024. The measurements include the following instruments at Mt. Soledad: High-Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS, Aerodyne), Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (SEMS, Brechtel Manufacturing Inc.), Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS, Droplet Measurements Technologies), Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2, Drople Measurements Technologies), Meteorological Station (WXT520, Vaisala), Ozone (Teco), and trace gas proxies (Teledyne). In addition, the analyses of particle filters collected at Mt. Soledad for three dry-diameter size cuts (<1 micron, <0.5 micron, <0.18 micron) and at Scripps Pier for one dry-diameter size cut (<1 micron) by Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) are reported. A differential mobility analyzer operated as a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS, TSI Inc.), a printed particle optical spectrometer (POPS, Grimm), and a continuous flow diffusion cloud condensation nuclei (CCN, DMT) counter provide the mobility aerosol size distribution (30-360 nm), optical size distribution (150 - 6000 nm), size-resolved CCN distribution (30-360 nm) at 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0% supersaturation. Measurements are reported for both sampling from an isokinetic aerosol inlet and from a Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI, Brechtel Manufacturing Inc.). The data are available at the following link: https://library.ucsd.edu/dc/collection/bb0898306q

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Renewable Energy Landscapes: Southwest and Pacific Northwest Workshops

To connect landscape architects and the energy sector, the University of Arizona and the University of Oregon hosted two virtual workshops with support from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in January 2023. These workshops were intended to co-create new principles and perspectives for designing renewable energy landscapes for the Southwest and Pacific Northwest, respectively, balancing place-based perspectives and at-scale deployment. Working across six design pathways through three phases, participants in the Southwest Workshop established and prioritized design opportunities by identifying relevant actions that are high impact, low effort; high impact, high effort; low impact, high effort; low impact, low effort. In contrast, participants in the Pacific Northwest Workshop produced a series of design options for the three sites to support broader efforts to visualize energy infrastructure deployment. The workshop outcomes reflect the current state of innovation in designing renewable energy landscapes. Collective understanding is largely focused on the practical—what is feasible in this moment—rather than pushing the boundaries on what might be possible. Achieving that next step requires that we first catch up to existing innovation in implementation and design since it is not yet commonplace. These workshops served as the first step in reimagining the potential of energy infrastructure across landscapes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Nonclassical light from finite-range interactions in a two-dimensional quantum mirror

Excitons in a semiconductor monolayer form a collective resonance that can reflect resonant light with extraordinarily high efficiency. We investigate the nonlinear optical properties of such atomistically thin mirrors and show that finite-range interactions between excitons can lead to the generation of highly nonclassical light. We describe two scenarios, in which optical nonlinearities arise either from direct photon coupling to excitons in excited Rydberg states or from resonant two-photon excitation of Rydberg excitons with finite-range interactions. The latter case yields conditions of electromagnetically induced transparency and thereby provides an efficient mechanism for single-photon switching between high transmission and reflectance of the monolayer, with a tunable dynamical timescale of the emerging photon-photon interactions. Remarkably, it turns out that the resulting high degree of photon correlations remains virtually unaffected by Rydberg-state decoherence, in excess of nonradiative decoherence observed for ground-state excitons in two-dimensional semiconductors. This robustness to imperfections suggests a promising approach to quantum photonics at the level of individual photons.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improved measurement of the decays η ′ → π + π − π + ( 0 ) π − ( 0 ) and search for the rare decay η ′ → 4 π 0

Using a sample of 10 billion J / ψ events collected with the BESIII detector, the decays η ′ → π + π − π + π − , η ′ → π + π − π 0 π 0 and η ′ → 4 π 0 are studied via the process J / ψ → γ η ′ . The branching fractions of η ′ → π + π − π + π − and η ′ → π + π − π 0 π 0 are measured to be ( 8.56 ± 0.25 ( stat ) ± 0.23 ( syst ) ) × 10 − 5 and ( 2.12 ± 0.12 ( stat ) ± 0.10 ( syst ) ) × 10 − 4 , respectively, which are consistent with previous measurements but with improved precision. No significant η ′ → 4 π 0 signal is observed, and the upper limit on the branching fraction of this decay is determined to be less than 1.24 × 10 − 5 at the 90% confidence level. In addition, an amplitude analysis of η ′ → π + π − π + π − is performed to extract the doubly virtual isovector form factor α for the first time. The measured value of α = 1.22 ± 0.33 ( stat ) ± 0.04 ( syst ) , is in agreement with the prediction of the vector meson dominance model. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Modern Trends in Neutron Scattering Instrument Technologies

This article reviews some current trends that can be observed in the development of neutron scattering instrument technologies. While the number of neutron scattering facilities worldwide and the number of beam days they offer are largely stable, their scientific impact is increasing through improving instrumental capabilities, new and more versatile instruments, and more efficient data collection protocols. Neutron beams are becoming smaller but more intense, and instruments are being designed to utilize more ‘useful’ neutrons in unit time. This article picks and discusses a few recent developments in the areas of integrated source and instrument design, use of computational tools, new detectors, and experiment automation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Rancor-HUNTER: A Virtual Plant and Operator Environment for Predicting Human Performance

Advances in simulation capabilities to model physical systems have outpaced the development of simulations for humans using those physical systems. There is an argument that the infinite span of potential human behaviors inherently render human modeling more challenging than physical systems. Despite this challenge, the need for modeling humans interacting with these complex systems is paramount. As technologies have improved, many of the failure modes originating from the physical systems have been solved. This means the overall proportion of human errors has increased, such that it is not uncommon to be the primary driver of system failure in modern complex systems. Moreover, technologies such as automated systems may introduce emerging contexts that can cause new, unanticipated modes of human error. Therefore, it is now more important than ever to develop models of human behavior to realize overall system error reductions and achieve established safety margins. To support new and novel concepts of operations for the anticipated wave of advanced nuclear reactor deployments, human factors and human reliability analysis researchers need to develop advanced simulation-based approaches. This talk presents a simulation environment suitable to both collect data and then perform Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate human performance and develop better models of human behavior. Specifically, the Rancor Microworld Simulator models a complex energy production system in a simplified manner. Rancor includes computer-based procedures, which serve as a framework to automatically classify human behaviors without manual, subjective experimenter coding during scenarios. This method supports a detailed level of analysis at the task level. It is feasible for collecting large sample sizes required to develop quantitative modelling elements that have historically challenged traditional full-scope simulator study approaches. Additionally, the other portion of this experimental platform, the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), is presented to show how the collected data can be used to evaluate novel scenarios based on the contextual factors, or performance shaping factors, derived from Rancor simulations. Rancor-HUNTER is being used to predict operator performance with new procedures, such as results from control room modernization or new-build situations. Rancor-HUNTER is also proving a useful surrogate platform to model human performance for other complex systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Offline Arterial Signal Timing Optimization based on Virtual Phase Link Model - A Real-world Case Study

Conventional signal timing for arterial usually takes bottom-up approaches. Engineers optimize each individual intersection first and then coordinate them by adjusting the offsets. This work is based on the Virtual Phase-Link (VPL) model, a street traffic model designed for online traffic model predictive control, to obtain a top-down offline arterial signal timing. We Studied the Shallowford Rd. in Chattanooga, TN and found that the inconsistency in intersection capacities along the arterial could lead to some intersections becoming bottlenecks. Signal timing is a significant factor that affect the intersection capacities. We realized that the VPL-based model can guarantee the consistency in intersections along an arterial. We therefore adopted the VPL-based model and developed an offline signal timing optimization approach. The proposed timing derived from the VPL-based offline signal timing optimization showed very good results in simulation. The Chattanooga Department of Transportation adopted the optimized timing obtained from the proposed approach and gave positive feedbacks to the research team. We also collected field experiment data, which demonstrated overall energy reductions and speed improvements on some sections of the Shallowford Rd. arterial. We will continue the experiment when the COVID-19 pandemic impact subsides to have a more robust quantitative evaluation.

Wang, Qichao↗

Homomorphic Encryption for Electrical Metering Aggregation: Protecting the Privacy of Building Tenants

Electrical meters are devices that measure consumer electricity usage. The data collected by these meters is necessary for utility billing and electrical grid management but can also be used to assess the environmental impact of buildings. Prior research has found that unprotected metering data could potentially be used to infer some information about the behaviors of building tenants by detecting changes in electricity usage. For example, a period of low electricity usage could suggest that the tenants are not in the building. As smart metering becomes more common, there is a growing need for data privacy protections for metering data that do not negatively impact the quality and availability of data used for energy management and billing applications. To identify potential solutions, we developed a Python-based data aggregation platform to analyze the potential efficacy of privacy-enhancing technologies for energy metering applications. This platform aggregates groups of metering sites into virtual buildings, which could potentially detach changes in electrical activity from individual tenants, making it more difficult to track the activity of a specific tenant. To further protect data during analysis, this project utilizes homomorphic encryption as part of its initial approach. Homomorphic encryption offers a means of protecting energy consumption data while permitting mathematical operations to be performed without the need to know the data contents. This allows for data to be processed into usable statistics without revealing energy consumption information. A series of homomorphic encryption libraries were evaluated to determine their applicability and limitations in the context of metering data. The use of these techniques may help to reassure consumers and encourage further adoption of smart grid infrastructure.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Development of a Machine-Learned Cruise Guide Indicator for Rotorcraft

This paper presents a machine-learned virtual cruise guide indicator (vCGI) for Chinook helicopters. Two temporal neural networks were trained and evaluated on measured data from 55 flight tests, one for the fore rotor and another for the aft rotor, to predict a vCGI value, which protects 23 components from fatigue damage during steady-state conditions. Three different classes of machine learning architectures were evaluated for prediction of the vCGI from time sequences: a temporal convolutional neural network with 1D dilated causal convolutions, a long short-term memory recurrent neural network, and an attention-based transformer architecture. The final average model accuracy on unseen flight data is currently greater than 93% for CGI values which could result in fatigue damage and 90% for normal operation CGI values. Model accuracy was improved through a series of advancements in:(1) selection of optimal training data using temporal collective variables and unsupervised learning, (2) dataset augmentation with maximum-entropy temporal collective variables, and (3) implementation of a mixture-of-experts classification- regression approach using an adversarial classification approach to assign maneuver labels. The results are presented for each advancement in model development along with lessons learned in training machine learning models on real- world, time-dependent rotorcraft data.

Boyer, Mathew↗

Explicit quantification of residence and flushing times in the Salish Sea using a sub-basin scale shoreline resolving model

The Salish Sea, located in the Pacific Northwest region of North America has complex currents and circulation features distributed over numerous interconnected deep basins with islands. Increased risk of exposure to oil spills and untreated wastewater from maritime emergencies and treatment plant failures have led to a need for quantifying residence and flushing characteristics at a sub-basin scale using a shoreline resolving hydrodynamic model. An unstructured grid model of the Salish Sea was developed using FVCOM with a ≈75-100m shoreline resolution. In addition to 7 tides and 23 salinity and temperature monitoring stations, an extensive currents data set from 135 stations collected over a span of three years was used for skill assessment and validation. Explicit forward computations were then conducted to define and quantify residence and flushing times in various sub-basins of interest using (a) Lagrangian particles and (b) Numerical/virtual dye experiments. The results in most basins show expected seasonal variability with longer flushing time associated with summer lower tides and lower freshwater inflows. However, contrary to expectation, flushing time is significantly longer in wintertime in large fjord-like basins such as Hood Canal (≈138 days), likely due to increased stratification and reduced mixing. The flushing time for the Puget Sound region of the Salish Sea is ≈115 days, while Georgia Basin is 240 days when analyzed as stand-alone basins with zero background concentrations. When examined as part of the flushing of the entire Puget Sound filled with virtual dye, the compounded flushing times for embedded sub-basins can be significantly longer in order of magnitudes and largely dictated by the flushing time of Puget Sound. The computed residence and flushing time scales tabulated over 36 sub-basins provide an improved understanding of water renewal in the system, informing pollution management actions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗