SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variance components”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Effect of likelihood misspecification in Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation

In recent years, several groups have designed Autonomous Experiment (AE) models with the aim of using them as an alternative method for neutron scattering scanning. In an AE, Gaussian processes (GPs) are most frequently used due to their interpretability, their non-parametric nature, their universal approximation, and their closed-form predictive distribution. GPs have two key components, namely, the model for the likelihood of a neutron count knowing the underlying dynamic structure factor and the acquisition function. In this paper, we investigate the impact, on the quality of an AE, of the likelihood and acquisition function choices, in energy scans and (Q, ω) ones, with respect to the signal-over-noise ratio. While we hypothesized that the quality of GP predictions would decrease when the normal to Poisson likelihood approximation breaks down at low count rates, we found that the use of the correct Poisson likelihood does not improve the quality of the data collected, as well as yields very poor results in (Q, ω) scans at low count rates. In fact, the best results are obtained with a combination of normal likelihood, including the observation noise, and the change in variance acquisition function. In addition, we find that the performance, or quality of the predictive distribution, is a misleading measure of efficiency, that is, of the quality of the data collected.

Perryman, David Elliott [Inst. Laue-Langevin (ILL)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evolution of AISI 304L stainless steel part properties due to powder recycling in laser powder-bed fusion

Selective laser melting (SLM) is a powder-bed fusion process in Additive Manufacturing (AM) that uses a laser beam to selectively fuse layers of powder into near net-shape components with little porosity. However, inconsistencies in the part properties due to the presence of defects in as-built components has hindered the widespread adoption of SLM for industrial applications forcing researchers to study the sources of variation for quality control purposes. A critical area suspected of creating variation in the part properties is the feedstock, where batch-to-batch differences as well as changes in the powder properties with reuse have the potential to affect performance. During processing, laser spatter and condensate eject from the melt pool and deposit into the powder-bed surrounding the parts. These particulates, more commonly known as ejecta, differ morphologically and chemically from the virgin powder compromising its reusability. In this study, 304L stainless steel powder was recycled for a total of 5 times through a systematic approach aimed at accelerating powder degradation to reveal the influence on both the tensile and impact toughness properties. Through analysis of variance (ANOVA), it was found that tensile properties did not change with reuse, while the impact toughness showed a steady decline illustrating the differences in static and dynamic part properties due to powder recycling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Foreground-immune CMB lensing reconstruction with polarization

Extragalactic foregrounds are known to generate significant biases in temperature based CMB lensing reconstruction. Several techniques, which include "source hardening'" and "shear-only estimators'' have been proposed to mitigate contamination and have been shown to be very effective at reducing foreground-induced biases. Here we extend both techniques to polarization, which will be an essential component of CMB lensing reconstruction for future experiments and investigate the "large lens'' limit analytically to gain insight on the origin and scaling of foreground biases, as well as the sensitivity to their profiles. Furthermore, using simulations of polarized point sources, we estimate the expected bias to both Simons Observatory and CMB-S4 like (polarization-based) lensing reconstruction, finding that biases to the former are minuscule while those to the latter are potentially non-negligible at small scales ($L$ ~ $1000-2000$). In particular, we show that for a CMB-S4 like experiment, an optimal linear combination of point-source hardened estimators can reduce the (point-source induced) bias to the CMB lensing power spectrum by up to two orders of magnitude, at a ~ 4% noise cost relative to the global minimum variance estimator.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of living grass Roots and endophytic fungal hyphae on soil hydraulic properties

Soil hydraulic properties are often estimated based on laboratory data or pedotransfer functions dependent on soil physical properties, which often do not consider potential impacts of soil roots or fungal hyphae. Here, we first review current knowledge of how these soil biotic components affect hydraulic properties, then we conducted laboratory experiments to specifically test if the presence of roots and mycorrhizal fungi had a significant effect on the hydraulic properties of two soils with contrasting textures: Flint sand and Hamblen silt loam. Soil cores were seeded with (Panicum virgatum) and grown in a greenhouse over three separate growth periods. The endophytic fungus Serendipita indica was injected as liquid inoculant into designated mycorrhizal cores. Saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sat ) measurements were made with a constant head permeameter, and soil water retention curves were obtained by the evaporation method, supplemented at the dry end for Hamblen silt loam with water activity meter data. Retention curve parameters were obtained by fitting the van Genuchten equation to the resulting measurements. Mean root volume ratios were higher in the mycorrhizal inoculated treatment than in the uninoculated treatment for both soils. For Flint sand, analysis of variance revealed that K sat was reduced by the presence of roots as compared to bare soil. This was likely due to roots clogging soil pores. Results also indicated the presence of roots changed the shape of the water retention curve for Flint sand by increasing water content at saturation and by reducing the slope of the curve. These changes suggested roots created additional porosity and broadened the pore-size distribution. The presence of mycorrhizal fungi accentuated the root effects. The influence of roots and mycorrhizal fungi on hydraulic properties was less obvious for the Hamblen silt loam, as none of the treatments differed from each other at p < 0.05. The results highlight the necessity to consider the impact of root and fungal structures on models of soil hydraulic properties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sparsity Applications for Gradient‐Based Optimization of Wind Farms

Optimizing wind farms is essential for designing efficient energy systems, especially as farms grow larger and span multiple sites. However, this optimization becomes increasingly challenging due to the rising computational cost associated with more turbines. Gradient‐based optimization methods scale better than gradient‐free approaches for large problems, but the most computationally expensive component remains the calculation of gradients for the objective function and constraint Jacobians. To address this, we propose leveraging sparsity to accelerate gradient evaluations and reduce the size of the constraint Jacobian. Wind farms naturally exhibit sparsity—many turbines do not influence each other under certain wind directions. However, unlike traditional sparse problems with fixed patterns, wind farm sparsity is dynamic, requiring new strategies to handle changing interactions efficiently. This paper presents a study of sparsity in wind farm optimization and introduces several methods to exploit it. These strategies are tested on multiple farms using the analytic Cumulative Curl model, with gradients computed via automatic differentiation (AD). The same sparsity‐aware techniques are also applicable to finite difference (FD) methods, where they can yield even greater speedups due to the high cost of directional evaluations. Results show that sparse methods achieve up to a 10x speedup with less than ± 5% variance in optimized wake losses compared to traditional methods. These findings suggest that sparsity‐aware optimization not only maintains solution quality but also scales efficiently with farm size, enabling more comprehensive design exploration at reduced computational cost.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Vertically Resolved Analysis of Radiative Feedbacks on Moist Static Energy Variance in Tropical Cyclones

Abstract A vertically resolved moist static energy (MSE) variance budget framework is used to diagnose processes associated with the development of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a general circulation model (GCM) under realistic boundary conditions. Previous studies have shown that interactions between radiation and MSE promote TC development. Here, we examine the vertical contributions of radiation and its interactions with MSE by performing several mechanism-denial experiments in which synoptic-scale radiative interactions are suppressed either in the boundary layer or in the free troposphere. Partly suppressing radiative interactions results in a reduction in global TC frequency. However, the magnitude of reduction and structure of the feedback depend on the intensity and structure of the TCs in these mechanism-denial experiments, indicating that both the magnitude and the vertical location of radiative interactions can impact global TC frequency. Using instantaneous 6-hourly outputs, an explicit computation reveals distinct spatial patterns of the advection term: the vertical component is positive in the mid- to upper troposphere, which reflects an upward transport of MSE by deep convection, whereas the horizontal component is positive in the boundary layer. These results illustrate the impact of the vertical distribution of radiative interactions and vertically varied contribution of the advection term in the development of TCs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Bezier Curve Informed Melt Pool Geometry to Model Additive Manufacturing Microstructures Using SPPARKS

Additive manufacturing is a transformative technology with the potential to manufacture designs which traditional subtractive machining methods cannot. Additive manufacturing offers fast builds at near final desired geometry; however, material properties and variability from part to part remain a challenge for certification and qualification of metallic components. AM induced metallic microstructures are spatially heterogeneous and highly process dependent. Engineering properties such as strength and toughness are significantly affected by microstructure morphologies resulting from the manufacturing process Linking process parameters to microstructures and ultimately to the dynamic response of AM materials is critical to certifying and qualifying AM built parts and components and improving the performance of AM materials. The AM fabrication process is characterized by building parts layer by layer using a selective laser melt process guided by a computer. A laser selectively scans and melts metal according to a designated geometry. As the laser scans, metal melts, fuses, and solidifies forming the final geometry in a layerwise fashion. As the laser heat source moves away, the metal cools and solidifies forming metallic microstructures. This work describes a microstructure modeling application implemented in the SPPARKS kinetic Monte Carlo computational framework for simulating the resulting microstructures. The application uses Bzier curves and surfaces to model the melt pool surface and spatial temperature profile induced by moving the laser heat source; it simulates the melting and fusing of metal at the laser hot spot and microstructure formation and evolution when the laser moves away. The geometry of the melt pool is quite flexible and we explore effects of variances in model parameters on simulated microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Defect and satellite characteristics of additive manufacturing metal powders

Metal additive manufacturing (AM) requires high-quality metal powders to three-dimensionally (3D) print metallic components with complex and customizable geometries. The lack of quantification of AM metal powders creates quality control challenges for 3D printed components, increases the uncertainty of printing reliability and net cost of inspected and certified printed components, and reduces the recyclability of used powders. However, critical characteristics of AM metal powders that are decisive factors for the 3D printing process, such as internal porosity, contamination, and satellite feature, remain ambiguous. In this work, we developed a novel approach to 3D quantify key characteristics of AM metal powders down to individual particles by using high-resolution synchrotron x-ray computed tomography. Empowered by the penetrative capability of high-energy x-ray, internal porosity and contamination within as-atomized metal powders from high-entropy alloys to nickel-based superalloys were evaluated. Additionally, the newly-developed dispersion method enables the homogeneous separation of individual particles, and consequently, results in the implementation of 3D particle shape analysis. To resolve a major challenge of identification and quantification of satellite-feature particles in as-atomized AM metal powders, the satellite features were quantitated by modeling and analyzing the shape parameter of local thickness variance. Furthermore, the 3D analytical methods of particle assessment in this study can be applied to other materials systems like rock, food, and pharmaceutical particles, and provide insights for process optimization across powder metallurgy, concrete, food and pharmaceutical manufacturing, and AM industries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploration of multifidelity UQ sampling strategies for computer network applications.

Network modeling is a powerful tool to enable rapid analysis of complex systems that can be challenging to study directly using physical testing. Here, two approaches are considered: emulation and simulation. The former runs real software on virtualized hardware, while the latter mimics the behavior of network components and their interactions in software. Although emulation provides an accurate representation of physical networks, this approach alone cannot guarantee the characterization of the system under realistic operative conditions. Operative conditions for physical networks are often characterized by intrinsic variability (payload size, packet latency, etc.) or a lack of precise knowledge regarding the network configuration (bandwidth, delays, etc.); therefore uncertainty quantification (UQ) strategies should be also employed. UQ strategies require multiple evaluations of the system with a number of evaluation instances that roughly increases with the problem dimensionality, i.e., the number of uncertain parameters. It follows that a typical UQ workflow for network modeling based on emulation can easily become unattainable due to its prohibitive computational cost. In this paper, a multifidelity sampling approach is discussed and applied to network modeling problems. The main idea is to optimally fuse information coming from simulations, which are a low-fidelity version of the emulation problem of interest, in order to decrease the estimator variance. By reducing the estimator variance in a sampling approach it is usually possible to obtain more reliable statistics and therefore a more reliable system characterization. Several network problems of increasing difficulty are presented. For each of them, the performance of the multifidelity estimator is compared with respect to the single fidelity counterpart, namely, Monte Carlo sampling. For all the test problems studied in this work, the multifidelity estimator demonstrated an increased efficiency with respect to MC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Application of Principal Component Analysis to Electrochemical Reprocessing PM and NMAC

In this report, data from an electrorefiner (ER) for nuclear fuel reprocessing is evaluated for process monitoring (PM) conclusions. This data comes from tests performed at the Idaho National Laboratory in 2022. Multivariate approaches utilizing methods of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied. This is based off established work in process monitoring for fault detection in industrial facilities. This report will discuss the background, methods, and results of the application and some of the conclusions and applications that can be drawn from them. PCA is applied to two different electrorefiner (ER) operations that occurred at Idaho National Laboratory between August and October 2022. The first operation occurred with little incident while the second had several noted faults in the equipment in operational logs. The data from the first run was used to train the data for “normal” operations and applied to both sets of data to determine when operations were in an “off-normal” condition and identify where the fault occurs through PCA. PCA was able to identify off-normal events and identify the cause for off-normal operations. These identified off-normal events matched with the events and their causes in the operational logs. However, small amounts of variance in the data led to false detection of “off-normal” events. Thus, careful selection of training data and a-posteriori conclusions based off operator assessments will both be required for application of PCA to PM applications. This work demonstrated that multivariate approaches and latent variables are applicable to pyroprocessing PM applications and can be further expanded in future work as quality variables such as salt concentration from sensors and sampling become available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Review of internal cyber attacks in nuclear facilities and an artificial neural network model for implementing internal cyberforensics

Deployment of digital technologies within a modern shift in cyber defense systems is essential for protecting the energy production units. One of the important components of defense is cyberforensics: once an attack has been detected to locate its origin. In this paper, a review of well-known cyberattacks in nuclear facilities is provided, with the lessons learned leading to the development of a machine learning approach implementing identification of internal at- tacks in the facility's data networks. Our approach may be seen as one of the layers in a defense-in-depth strategy that identifies if the attack comes from inside, which may result in identifying faster the attacker's origin. The presented model exploits network packet examination to cast accurate predictions on detailing the origin of malicious network connections. The approach fuses multiple mathematical functions within an artificial neural network to provide a response in the form of 0/1, i. e., whether the attack is identified as internal or not. The utilization of a variety of test cases is developed to explore the relevance and validity of the predictive approach. The proposed implementation is examined with network data packet variance, and the results obtained exhibit a highly accurate detection rate.

Nuclear Science & Technology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spectral distortions to momentum and scalar exchanges by non-turbulent motion and patchy landscape variability

Modifications to the spectra of turbulent velocity and scalars and co-spectra of vertical fluxes of momentum and scalars due to patchy landscape heterogeneity and non-stationarity are explored for a Mediterranean ecosystem. About 9 months of high frequency measurements of the three velocity components, water vapor concentration, carbon dioxide concentration, and air temperature were analyzed for different seasons (spring/summer) and prevalent wind directions (southeast/northwest). The two wind directions sampled a contrast of clumped and patchy landscape comprised of olive trees (southeast) and wall bounded flow disturbed by the presence of few upwind trees (northwest). The measured spectra and co-spectra were also compared to theoretical scaling forms from stationary, planar homogeneous flow, in the absence of subsidence as derived from the Kansas experiment. To assess the role of low frequency non-turbulent motion on the spectral and co-spectral content, a 5-min Fourier cutoff was introduced and the analysis was limited to near-neutral conditions where the boundary layer depth is shallow compared to its unstable counterpart. It was shown that the velocity statistics were not appreciably impacted by the low-frequency motion causing non-stationarity. Moreover, the turbulent scalar fluxes were also shown not to be significantly impacted by such low frequency motion. The scalar variances were impacted, especially the water vapor variance and its concomitant spectral shape. When the non-turbulent motion was filtered, the scalar spectra at low wavenumbers followed expectations from the so-called attached eddy hypothesis (i.e. exhibited a $k^{-1}_x$ scaling with $k_x$ defining the longitudinal wavenumber) applicable for near-neutral conditions. For momentum co-spectra, the canonical shapes from the Kansas experiment appear to describe well the measurements here and in both dominant directions and seasons with some adjustment to the integral time scales based on wind direction. For the scalar co-spectra, deviations from the Kansas experiment were prevalent. The most noticeable and surprising deviations were their slow decay with increased sampling frequency at inertial subrange scales. This slow decay was shown not to contribute appreciably to the overall scalar fluxes. At those fine scales, predictions from local isotropy were expected to hold. The scalar co-spectral deviations from local isotropy were then discussed using a simplified co-spectral budget model where scalar–scalar co-spectra naturally emerged and the interplay between landscape heterogeneity and a scale-dependent pressure-scalar de-correlation time was postulated. It is also envisaged that the findings here offer a preliminary template for analyzing eddy-covariance data in situations that deviate from ideal conditions, especially regarding low-frequency modulations of scalar spectra and vertical scalar flux co-spectra.

Canopy turbulence↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effective cosmic density field reconstruction with convolutional neural network

ABSTRACT We present a cosmic density field reconstruction method that augments the traditional reconstruction algorithms with a convolutional neural network (CNN). Following previous work, the key component of our method is to use the reconstructed density field as the input to the neural network. We extend this previous work by exploring how the performance of these reconstruction ideas depends on the input reconstruction algorithm, the reconstruction parameters, and the shot noise of the density field, as well as the robustness of the method. We build an eight-layer CNN and train the network with reconstructed density fields computed from the Quijote suite of simulations. The reconstructed density fields are generated by both the standard algorithm and a new iterative algorithm. In real space at z = 0, we find that the reconstructed field is 90 per cent correlated with the true initial density out to $k\sim 0.5 \, \mathrm{ h}\, \rm {Mpc}^{-1}$, a significant improvement over $k\sim 0.2 \, \mathrm{ h}\, \rm {Mpc}^{-1}$ achieved by the input reconstruction algorithms. We find similar improvements in redshift space, including an improved removal of redshift space distortions at small scales. We also find that the method is robust across changes in cosmology. Additionally, the CNN removes much of the variance from the choice of different reconstruction algorithms and reconstruction parameters. However, the effectiveness decreases with increasing shot noise, suggesting that such an approach is best suited to high density samples. This work highlights the additional information in the density field beyond linear scales as well as the power of complementing traditional analysis approaches with machine learning techniques.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improved Parametric Models for Explosion Pressure Signals Derived From Large Datasets

Accurate recording and characterization of explosion-induced pressure signals are key components of the forensic analysis of explosion events in the atmosphere. Parametric overpressure models based on several key waveform features (peak overpressure, positive pulse duration, and impulse) are widely used to estimate explosion energy in terms of trinitrotoluene equivalent yield. However, those models are often developed by a limited dataset, including only a few events or recordings at relatively short propagation distances. Here, we develop empirical waveform-parameter models based on a regression analysis of a large set of data curated from four chemical explosion experiments including 16 detonations. We measured peak overpressure and impulse for positive and negative phases from 1000 pressure signals recorded at local ranges (<20 km) with scaled distance up to 8000 m/kg 1/3 . Additionally, the measured waveform parameters showed large variation with respect to observing distances indicating the effects of atmospheric propagation. In this study, a second-order polynomial model was used in a least-squares regression to account for those propagation effects and to improve data fitting. In addition to model parameters for waveform features, we also determined range-dependent model uncertainties based on data variance. The model uncertainty represents the prediction error of our models and can be critical to evaluating the uncertainty of yield estimate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Drivers of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using a Stochastic Model Hierarchy

The relative importance of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in generating Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) remains an open question. Comparisons between climate models with SLAB and fully-dynamic (FULL) ocean components are often used to explore this question, but cannot reveal how individual ocean processes generate these differences. We build a hierarchy of physically interpretable stochastic models to investigate the contribution of two upper-ocean processes to AMV: the role of seasonal variation and mixed-layer entrainment. This interpretability arises from the stochastic model’s simplified representation of sea surface temperature (SST), considering only the local upper ocean response to white-noise atmospheric forcing and its impact on surface heat exchange. We focus on understanding differences between SLAB and FULL non-eddy resolving pre-industrial control simulations of the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM), and estimate the stochastic model parameters from each respective simulation. Despite its simplicity, the stochastic model reproduces temporal characteristics of SST variability in the SPG, including reemergence, seasonal-to-interannual persistence and power spectra. Furthermore, unrealistically persistent SST of the CESM-SLAB ocean simulation is reproduced in the equivalent stochastic model configuration where the mixed-layer depth (MLD) is constant. The stochastic model also reveals that vertical entrainment primarily damps SST variability, thus explaining why SLAB exhibits larger SST variance than FULL. Here, the stochastic model driven by temporally stochastic, spatially coherent forcing patterns reproduces the canonical AMV pattern. However, the amplitude of low-frequency variability remains underestimated, suggesting a role for ocean dynamics beyond entrainment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Evaluation of the Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Its Variability in CESM2 and Other CMIP Models

Abstract The Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) is the latest Earth System Model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in collaboration with the university community and is significantly advanced in most components compared to its predecessor (CESM1). Here, CESM2's representation of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation and its variability is assessed. Further context is providedthrough comparison to the CESM1 large ensemble and other models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). This includes an assessment of the representation of jet streams and storm tracks, stationary waves, the global divergent circulation, the annular modes, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and blocking. Compared to CESM1, CESM2 is substantially improved in the representation of the storm tracks, Northern Hemisphere (NH) stationary waves, NH winter blocking and the global divergent circulation. It ranks within the top 10% of CMIP class models in many of these features. Some features of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation have degraded, such as the SH jet strength, stationary waves, and blocking, although the SH jet stream is placed at approximately the correct location. This analysis also highlights systematic deficiencies in these features across the new CMIP6 archive, such as the continued tendency for the SH jet stream to be placed too far equatorward, the North Atlantic westerlies to be too strong over Europe, the storm tracks as measured by low‐level meridional wind variance to be too weak and a lack of blocking in the North Atlantic sector.

Simpson, Isla R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Inferring Plant Acclimation and Improving Model Generalizability With Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning of Photosynthesis

Net photosynthesis (A N ) is a key component of the global carbon cycle influencing climate feedback over decadal scales. Although plant acclimation to environmental changes can modify A N , traditional vegetation models in Earth system models (ESMs) often rely on plant functional type (PFT)-specific parameterizations or simplified acclimation assumptions limiting generalizability across time, space, and PFTs. In this study, we developed a differentiable photosynthesis model to learn the environmental dependencies of V c,max25 (maximum carboxylation rate at 25°C, representing photosynthetic capacity), as this genre of hybrid physics-informed machine learning can seamlessly train neural networks and process-based equations together. Compared to PFT-specific parameterization of V c,max25 , learning the environment dependencies of key photosynthetic parameters improved model spatiotemporal generalizability. Applying environmental acclimation to V c,max25 led to substantial variations in global mean A N indicating the need to address acclimation in ESMs. The model effectively captured multivariate observations (V c,max25 , A N , and stomatal conductance (g s )) simultaneously with multivariate constraints, improving generalization across space and PFTs. It also learned sensible acclimation relationships of V c,max25 to different environmental conditions. The model explained more than 54%, 57%, and 62% of the variance of A N , g s , and V c,max25 , respectively, presenting a first global-scale spatial test benchmark of A N and g s . These results highlight the potential for differentiable modeling to enhance process-based modules in ESMs and effectively leverage information from large, multivariate data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗