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NASA NTRS1972

Convergence of oscillator spectral estimators for counted-frequency measurements.

A common intermediary connecting frequency-noise calibration or testing of an oscillator to useful applications is the spectral density of the frequency-deviating process. In attempting to turn test data into predicts of performance characteristics, one is naturally led to estimation of statistical values by sample-mean and sample-variance techniques. However, sample means and sample variances themselves are statistical quantities that do not necessarily converge (in the mean-square sense) to actual ensemble-average means and variances, except perhaps for excessively large sample sizes. This is especially true for the flicker noise component of oscillators. This article shows, for the various types of noises found in oscillators, how sample averages converge (or do not converge) to their statistical counterparts. The convergence rate is shown to be the same for all oscillators of a given spectral type.

Tausworthe, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Recipes for degrees of freedom of frequency stability estimators

The Allan variance for an averaging time tau can be estimated either from all available phase samples or from a subgrid of samples with spacing tau. This paper gives a set of computational recipes that yield the variance of both estimators, with less than 2 percent error, for the five power-law components of the classical continuous-time clock noise model.

Greenhall, Charles A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Polarimetric Retrievals of Cloud Droplet Number Concentrations

Cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) is an important parameter of liquid clouds and is crucial to understanding aerosol-cloud interactions. It couples boundary layer aerosol composition, size and concentration with cloud reflectivity. It affects cloud evolution, precipitation, radiative forcing, global climate and, through observation, can be used to partially monitor the first indirect effect. With its unique combination of multi-wavelength, multi-angle, total and polarized reflectance measurements, the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) retrieves Nd with relatively few assumptions. The approach involves measuring cloud optical thickness, mean droplet extinction cross-section and cloud physical thickness. Polarimetric observations are capable of measuring the effective variance, or width, of the droplet size distribution. Estimating cloud geometrical thickness is also an important component of the polarimetric Nd retrieval, which is accomplished using polarimetric measurements in a water vapor absorption band to retrieve the amount of in-cloud water vapor and relating this to physical thickness. We highlight the unique abilities and quantify uncertainties of the polarimetric approach. We validate the approach using observational data from the North Atlantic and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES). NAAMES targets specific phases in the seasonal phytoplankton lifecycle and ocean-atmosphere linkages. This study provides an excellent opportunity for the RSP to evaluate its approach of sensing Nd over a range of concentrations and cloud types with in situ measurements from a Cloud Droplet Probe (CDP). The RSP and CDP, along with an array of other instruments, are flown on the NASA C-130 aircraft, which flies in situ and remote sensing legs in sequence. Cloud base heights retrieved by the RSP compare well with those derived in situ (R=0.83) and by a ceilometer aboard the R.V. Atlantis (R=0.79). Comparing geometric mean values from 12 science flights throughout the NAAMES-1 and NAAMES-2 campaigns, we find a strong correlation between Nd retrieved by the RSP and CDP (R=0.96). A linear least squares fit has a slope of 0.92 and an intercept of 0.3 cm−3. Uncertainty in this comparison can be attributed to cloud 3D effects, nonlinear liquid water profiles, multilayered clouds, measurement uncertainty, variation in spatial and temporal sampling, and assumptions used within the method. Radiometric uncertainties of the RSP measurements lead to biases on derived optical thickness and cloud physical thickness, but these biases largely cancel out when deriving Nd for most conditions and geometries. We find that a polarimetric approach to sensing Nd is viable and the RSP is capable of accurately retrieving Nd for a variety of cloud types and meteorological conditions.

Droplet concentration↗

NASA NTRS1984

Matrix partitioning and EOF/principal component analysis of Antarctic Sea ice brightness temperatures

A field of measured anomalies of some physical variable relative to their time averages, is partitioned in either the space domain or the time domain. Eigenvectors and corresponding principal components of the smaller dimensioned covariance matrices associated with the partitioned data sets are calculated independently, then joined to approximate the eigenstructure of the larger covariance matrix associated with the unpartitioned data set. The accuracy of the approximation (fraction of the total variance in the field) and the magnitudes of the largest eigenvalues from the partitioned covariance matrices together determine the number of local EOF's and principal components to be joined by any particular level. The space-time distribution of Nimbus-5 ESMR sea ice measurement is analyzed.

Murray, C. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Turbulence Measurements of Rectangular Nozzles with Bevel

This paper covers particle image velocimetry measurements of a family of rectangular nozzles with aspect ratios 2, 4, and 8, in the high subsonic flow regime. Far-field acoustic results, presented previously, showed that increasing aspect ratios increased the high frequency noise, especially directed in the polar plane containing the minor axis of the nozzle. The measurements presented here have important implications in the modeling of turbulent sources for acoustic analogy theories. While the nonaxisymmetric mean flow from the rectangular nozzles can be studied reliably using computational solutions, the nonaxisymmetry of the turbulent fluctuations, particularly at the level of velocity components, cannot; only measurements such as these can determine the impact of nozzle geometry on acoustic source anisotropy. Additional nozzles were constructed that extended the wide lip on one side of these nozzles to form beveled nozzles. The paper first documents the velocity fields, mean and variance, from the round, rectangular, and beveled rectangular nozzles at high subsonic speeds. A second section introduces measures of the isotropy of the turbulence, such as component ratios and lengthscales, first by showing them for a round jet and then for the rectangular nozzles. From these measures the source models of acoustic analogy codes can be judged or modified to account for these anisotropies.

Rectangular Nozzle↗

NASA NTRS1974

The relation of variations in total magnetic field at high latitude with the parameters of the interplanetary magnetic field and with DP2 fluctuations

The maximum disturbances from the positive and negative regions of delta B (Bp and Bn, respectively) are investigated with respect to their correlation with (1) the average N-S component, Bz, (2) the average angle with respect to the solar magnetospheric equatorial plane, theta (3) the variance, sigma sub i, and (4) the magnitude, Bi, of the interplanetary magnetic field. These quantities were averaged over a period, T, ranging from 20 min. to 8 hours prior to the measurement of Bp or Bn. Variations (i.e., disturbances) in total magnetic field magnitude were studied utilizing data from the Polar Orbiting Geophysical Observatory satellites (OGO 2, 4, and 6), unofficially referred to as POGO.

Langel, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

A comparison of methods for DPLL loop filter design

Four design methodologies for loop filters for a class of digital phase-locked loops (DPLLs) are presented. The first design maps an optimum analog filter into the digital domain; the second approach designs a filter that minimizes in discrete time weighted combination of the variance of the phase error due to noise and the sum square of the deterministic phase error component; the third method uses Kalman filter estimation theory to design a filter composed of a least squares fading memory estimator and a predictor. The last design relies on classical theory, including rules for the design of compensators. Linear analysis is used throughout the article to compare different designs, and includes stability, steady state performance and transient behavior of the loops. Design methodology is not critical when the loop update rate can be made high relative to loop bandwidth, as the performance approaches that of continuous time. For low update rates, however, the miminization method is significantly superior to the other methods.

Aguirre, S.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Testing Cosmic Microwave Background Anomalies in E-mode Polarization with Current and Future Data

In this paper, we explore the power of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization (E-mode) data to corroborate four potential anomalies in CMB temperature data: the lack of large angular-scale correlations, the alignment of the quadrupole and octupole (Q–O), the point-parity asymmetry, and the hemispherical power asymmetry. We use CMB simulations with noise representative of three experiments—the Planck satellite, the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS), and the LiteBIRD satellite—to test how current and future data constrain the anomalies. We find the correlation coefficients ρ between temperature and E-mode estimators to be less than 0.1, except for the point-parity asymmetry (ρ = 0.17 for cosmic-variance-limited simulations), confirming that E-modes provide a check on the anomalies that is largely independent of temperature data. Compared to Planck component-separated CMB data (smica), the putative LiteBIRD survey would reduce errors on E-mode anomaly estimators by factors of ∼3 for hemispherical power asymmetry and point-parity asymmetry, and by ∼26 for lack of large-scale correlation. The improvement in Q–O alignment is not obvious due to large cosmic variance, but we found the ability to pin down the estimator value will be improved by a factor ≳100. Improvements with CLASS are intermediate to these.

Cosmic microwave background radiation↗

NASA NTRS1974

Influence of solar wind variability on geomagnetic activity

A statistical study of solar wind data from the Explorer 33 satellite shows that interplanetary magnetic field irregularities are enhanced in the interaction region where a fast solar wind stream overtakes a slower solar wind stream. Comparison with geomagnetic AE and ap indexes further shows that these interplanetary irregularities enhance the level of geomagnetic disturbances. Thus while substorm occurrence is highly correlated with the dawn-dusk component of the solar wind electric field, the amplitude of the substorms is an increasing function of the variance in the interplanetary field. This result can be interpreted as a capacitative effect of the magnetopause that allows a time-varying solar wind electric field to penetrate the magnetosphere more effectively than a static solar wind electric field.

Garrett, H. B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Mean sea surface height of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from Geosat data: Method and application

The mean sea surface height across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) has been reconstructed from height variability measured by the Geosat altimeter without assuming prior knowledge of the geoid. For this study, an automated technique has been developed to estimate mean sea surface height for each satellite ground track using a meandering Gaussian jet model, and errors have been estimated using Monte Carlo simulation. The results are objectively mapped to produce a picture of the mean Subantarctic and Polar Fronts, which together comprise the major components of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The meandering jet model explains between 40% and 70% of the height variance along the jet axes. The results show that the fronts are substantially steered by topography and that the jets have an average Gaussian width of about 44 km in the meridional direction and meander about 75 km to either side of their mean locations. The average height difference across the Subantarctic Front (SAF) is 0.7 m and across the Polar Front (PF) 0.6 m. The mean widths of the fronts are correlated with the size of the baroclinic Rossby radius.

Gille, Sarah T.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Anisotropy and Alfvenicity of hourly fluctuations in the fast polar solar wind

Ulysses magnetic and plasma data obtained in the fast polar solar wind are used to study the nature of fluctuations in the frequency range between the turbulent inertial range and the lower-frequency range dominated by quasi-static structures originating at the Sun. For daily variations of hourly averages of the magnetic field components the anisotropy of the fluctuations is less than in the higher-frequency range, and the minimum varianced direction loses its alignment with the magnetic field in favor of a more radial direction as the solar distance increases.

Solar wind Alfvenicity waves anisotropy Ulysses↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using an Altimeter-Derived Internal Tide Model to Remove Tides from in Situ Data

Internal waves at tidal frequencies, i.e., the internal tides, are a prominent source of variability in the ocean associated with significant vertical isopycnal displacements and currents. Because the isopycnal displacements are caused by ageostrophic dynamics, they contribute uncertainty to geostrophic transport inferred from vertical profiles in the ocean. Here it is demonstrated that a newly developed model of the main semidiurnal (M2) internal tide derived from satellite altimetry may be used to partially remove the tide from vertical profile data, as measured by the reduction of steric height variance inferred from the profiles. It is further demonstrated that the internal tide model can account for a component of the near-surface velocity as measured by drogued drifters. These comparisons represent a validation of the internal tide model using independent data and highlight its potential use in removing internal tide signals from in situ observations.

Zaron, Edward D.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Aggregate Risk Tool for Human Space Flight

This tool utilizes Data fusion capabilities developed from the 2020-2022 Information Fusion (IFDA) IRAD to enhance functionality of a Human Spaceflight (HSF) Aggregate Risk Product developed by the JSC Flight Safety Office. The tool compiles and present risk data from multiple Program and Commercial Provider sources to provide a holistic assessment for Program Managers and Technical Authorities to evaluate residual risk prior to HSF Launches. The aggregation, or coupling of risks from multiple sources (Ex: PRA, variances, anomaly data bases, CRM data, technical review board minutes, Hazard Analysis, etc.) identifies areas of elevated risk in components, systems or mission phases that would otherwise be undetected by non-integrated program risk management tools and possesses. Data is then displayed in an interactive user interface/dashboard that enables users to see potential areas of concern requiring more in-depth analysis.

Patrick M Huckaby↗

NASA NTRS1999

Chemistry Experiments

The purpose of the chemistry component of the model comparison is to assess to what extent differences in the formulation of chemical processes explain the variance between model results. Observed concentrations of chemical compounds are used to estimate to what degree the various models represent realistic situations. For readability, the materials for the chemistry experiment are reported in three separate sections. This section discussed the data used to evaluate the models in their simulation of the source gases and the Nitrogen compounds (NO(y)) and Chlorine compounds (Cl(y)) species.

Brasseur, Guy↗

NASA NTRS2019

Predicting Cancer Risk from Ionizing Radiation

The ability to predict cancer risk associated with exposure to low doses of high-LET ionizing radiation (IR) remains a challenge. Epidemiological methods lack the sensitivity and power to provide detailed risk estimates for cancer and ignore individual variance in IR sensitivity. We have hypothesized that DNA repair capacity can be used as a marker to evaluate and differentiate individual radiation sensitivity. More specifically, this work is based on the concept that the combined time-dose dependence of radiation-induced foci (RIF) of p53-binding protein 1 (53BP1) following low-LET exposure contains sufficient information to infer sensitivity to any other LET. Our hypothesis was tested in 15 different mouse strains as well as in primary human immune cells. We first approached individual ionizing radiation sensitivity in a mouse model by culturing primary skin fibroblasts extracted from 76 mice of 15 different genetic backgrounds and exposing them to HZE particles and X-rays. This work is one of the most extensive studies on the kinetics and possible genetic underpinnings of radiation-induced DNA damage and repair. Our results is in agreement with a DNA repair model we previously postulated, where nearby DNA double strand breaks (DSB) in the nucleus are brought together for more efficient repair, leading to RIF clustering. Such mechanism was evidenced by a specific dose and LET dependence of RIF numbers. Briefly, RIF quantification after low-LET X-ray exposure showed an asymptotic saturation for doses between 1 Gy and 4 Gy 4 hours post-irradiation across all 15 strains. The clustering of DSB across all strains also led to more RIF/Gy for lower LET (X-ray and 350 MeV/n Ar) than for higher LET (600 MeV/n Fe) 4 hours post-exposure. Considering the fact that the number of DSB/Gy should be independent of LET, our data suggest there are more DSB in individual RIF as the LET increases. RIF numbers for 24 and 48 hours post-exposure led to the inverse trend, with more remaining RIF/Gy for higher LET (by 600 MeV/n Fe). This result suggests cells have more difficulty resolving RIF from higher LET as they the number DSB/RIF increases. Note that for most conditions, the variance of RIF/Gy was small within individual animals of the same strain and large between strains, suggesting a strong genetics component. Furthermore, we present our preliminary data from an ongoing study on human genetic associations with IR sensitivity. To address the human variability in responses to HZE particle irradiation in a maximally comprehensive manner, we are in the process of collecting and isolating primary blood mononuclear cells from 768 healthy subjects of European descent, 18-75 years of age, 50/50 male/female distribution. We have analyzed 53BP1+ RIF formation as well as oxidative stress and cell death in primary cells from 192 subjects in response to the same HZE particles as used in mice: 600 MeV/n Fe, 350 MeV/n Ar and 350 MeV/n Si, 1.1 and 3 particles/100m2, 4 and 24 hours after irradiation. We will next complete the quantification of HZE particle-induced DNA and cellular damage in the remaining subjects and compare it to their responses to low-LET irradiation. Finally, we will perform GWAS analysis to identify human genomic associations with IR sensitivity and potential targets for biomarker development.

High-LET radiation↗

NASA NTRS2008

Tide Corrections for Coastal Altimetry: Status and Prospects

Knowledge of global oceanic tides has markedly advanced over the last two decades, in no small part because of the near-global measurements provided by satellite altimeters, and especially the long and precise Topex/Poseidon time series e.g. [2]. Satellite altimetry in turn places very severe demands on the accuracy of tidal models. The reason is clear: tides are by far the largest contributor to the variance of sea-surface elevation, so any study of non-tidal ocean signals requires removal of this dominant tidal component. Efforts toward improving models for altimetric tide corrections have understandably focused on deep-water, open-ocean regions. These efforts have produced models thought to be generally accurate to about 2 cm rms. Corresponding tide predictions in shelf and near-coastal regions, however, are far less accurate. This paper discusses the status of our current abilities to provide near-global tidal predictions in shelf and near-coastal waters, highlights some of the difficulties that must be overcome, and attempts to divine a path toward some degree of progress. There are, of course, many groups worldwide who model tides over fairly localized shallow-water regions, and such work is extremely valuable for any altimeter study limited to those regions, but this paper considers the more global models necessary for the general user. There have indeed been efforts to patch local and global models together, but such work is difficult to maintain over many updates and can often encounter problems of proprietary or political nature. Such a path, however, might yet prove the most fruitful, and there are now new plans afoot to try again. As is well known, tides in shallow waters tend to be large, possibly nonlinear, and high wavenumber. The short spatial scales mean that current mapping capabilities with (multiple) nadir-oriented altimeters often yield inadequate coverage. This necessitates added reliance on numerical hydrodynamic models and data assimilation, which in turn necessitates very accurate bathymetry with high spatial resolution. Nonlinearity means that many additional compound tides and overtides must be accounted for in our predictions, which increases the degree of modeling effort and increases the amounts of data required to disentangle closely aliased tides.

Ray, Richard D.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Analytic Method for Computing Instrument Pointing Jitter

A new method of calculating the root-mean-square (rms) pointing jitter of a scientific instrument (e.g., a camera, radar antenna, or telescope) is introduced based on a state-space concept. In comparison with the prior method of calculating the rms pointing jitter, the present method involves significantly less computation. The rms pointing jitter of an instrument (the square root of the jitter variance shown in the figure) is an important physical quantity which impacts the design of the instrument, its actuators, controls, sensory components, and sensor- output-sampling circuitry. Using the Sirlin, San Martin, and Lucke definition of pointing jitter, the prior method of computing the rms pointing jitter involves a frequency-domain integral of a rational polynomial multiplied by a transcendental weighting function, necessitating the use of numerical-integration techniques. In practice, numerical integration complicates the problem of calculating the rms pointing error. In contrast, the state-space method provides exact analytic expressions that can be evaluated without numerical integration.

Bayard, David↗

NASA NTRS2006

Predictions of Leukemia Risks to Astronauts from Solar Particle Events

Leukemias consisting of acute and chronic myeloid leukemia and acute lymphatic lymphomas represent the earliest cancers that appear after radiation exposure, have a high lethality fraction, and make up a significant fraction of the overall fatal cancer risk from radiation for adults. Several considerations impact the recommendation of a preferred model for the estimation of leukemia risks from solar particle events (SPE's): The BEIR VII report recommends several changes to the method of calculation of leukemia risk compared to the methods recommended by the NCRP Report No. 132 including the preference of a mixture model with additive and multiplicative components in BEIR VII compared to the additive transfer model recommended by NCRP Report No. 132. Proton fluences and doses vary considerably across marrow regions because of the characteristic spectra of primary solar protons making the use of an average dose suspect. Previous estimates of bone marrow doses from SPE's have used an average body-shielding distribution for marrow based on the computerized anatomical man model (CAM). We have developed an 82-point body-shielding distribution that faithfully reproduces the mean and variance of SPE doses in the active marrow regions (head and neck, chest, abdomen, pelvis and thighs) allowing for more accurate estimation of linear- and quadratic-dose components of the marrow response. SPE's have differential dose-rates and a pseudo-quadratic dose response term is possible in the peak-flux period of an event. Also, the mechanistic basis for leukemia risk continues to improve allowing for improved strategies in choosing dose-rate modulation factors and radiation quality descriptors. We make comparisons of the various choices of the components in leukemia risk estimates in formulating our preferred model. A major finding is that leukemia could be the dominant risk to astronauts for a major solar particle event.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗