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At least 145 records · Page 8

Modeling Si/SiGe quantum dot variability induced by interface disorder reconstructed from multiperspective microscopy

SiGe heteroepitaxial growth yields pristine host material for quantum dot qubits, but residual interface disorder can lead to qubit-to-qubit variability that might pose an obstacle to reliable SiGe-based quantum computing. By convolving data from scanning tunneling microscopy and high-angle annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy, we reconstruct 3D interfacial atomic structure and employ an atomistic multi-valley effective mass theory to quantify qubit spectral variability. The results indicate (1) appreciable valley splitting (VS) variability of ~50% owing to alloy disorder and (2) roughness-induced double-dot detuning bias energy variability of order 1–10 meV depending on well thickness. For measured intermixing, atomic steps have negligible influence on VS, and uncorrelated roughness causes spatially fluctuating energy biases in double-dot detunings potentially incorrectly attributed to charge disorder. Our approach yields atomic structure spanning orders of magnitude larger areas than post-growth microscopy or tomography alone, enabling more holistic predictions of disorder-induced qubit variability.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Quantifying mean, variability, and uncertainty in indoor radon exposure in Pennsylvania using random forest and quantile regression forest models

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas that poses a serious health risk as the primary cause of lung cancer in non-smokers. Despite the well-known adverse association with health outcomes, current radon exposure assessments are limited to county-level or average-level estimates, which fail to capture regional variability. This study uses Machine Learning models, including Random Forest (RF) and Quantile Regression Forest (QRF), to estimate the indoor radon concentrations at the ZCTA (Zip code tabulation area)-level and characterize uncertainties in model estimates. Incorporating geological, meteorological, and building-specific data, the models aim to improve radon risk assessment by capturing mean exposure, variability, and extreme concentration levels. Processed radon test data (n = 718,111) were analyzed using average, variability, and quantile prediction methods. Models that estimate the average radon exposure at the ZCTA-level can yield promising model-fit results, but they do not capture the underlying variability of indoor radon exposure within a ZCTA. We utilize volatility analyses to identify characteristics indicative of high variability of indoor radon exposure. We also show that a QRF model can be used to estimate upper quantiles of residential radon exposure, thereby uncovering localized areas of elevated exposure that were not apparent in mean estimates. The results highlighted the need for a deep characterization of exposure risk and show that regions with moderate average exposure levels could still harbor extreme outliers with implications for evaluating health risks. Utilizing multiple radon exposure models allows for a deeper characterization of radon risk within a geographic area and can better identify high-risk areas. The results from this study provide a foundation for developing mitigation strategies and examining associations between radon exposure and health outcomes at fine scales. Future research should extend the geographic scope and incorporate additional environmental risk factors to establish a comprehensive framework for risk assessment.

Lee, Heechan [ORNL]↗

The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability

Unraveling drivers of the interannual variability of tropical land carbon cycle is critical for understanding land carbon-climate feedbacks. Here we utilize two generations of factorial model experiments to show that interannual variability of tropical land carbon uptake under both present and future climate is consistently dominated by terrestrial water availability variations in Earth system models. The magnitude of this interannual sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake to water availability variations under future climate shows a large spread across the latest 16 models (2.3 ± 1.5 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O), which is constrained to 1.3 ± 0.8 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O using observations and the emergent constraint methodology. However, the long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties in the latest models can no longer be directly constrained by interannual variability compared with previous models, given that additional important processes are not well reflected in interannual variability but could determine long-term land carbon storage. Our results highlight the limited implication of interannual variability for long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedbacks and help isolate remaining uncertainties with respect to water limitations on tropical land carbon sink in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radial velocity variability and the evolution of hot subdwarf stars

Hot subdwarf stars represent a late and peculiar stage in the evolution of low-mass stars, since they are likely formed by close binary interactions. In this work, we perform a radial velocity (RV) variability study of a sample of 646 hot subdwarfs with multi-epoch radial velocities based on spectra from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fibre Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST). The atmospheric parameters and RVs were taken from the literature. For stars with archival spectra but without literature values, we determined the parameters by fitting model atmospheres. In addition, we redetermined the atmospheric parameters and RVs for all the He-enriched sdO/Bs. This broad sample allowed us to study RV-variability as a function of the location in theT eff - log g- and T eff - log n (He)/n (H) diagrams in a statistically significant way. We used the fraction of RV-variable stars and the distribution of the maximum RV variations ΔRV max as diagnostics. Both indicators turned out to be quite inhomogeneous across the studied parameter ranges. A striking feature is the completely dissimilar behaviour of He-poor and He-rich hot subdwarfs. While the former have a high fraction of close binaries, almost no significant RV variations could be detected for the latter. This has led us to the conclusion that there is likely no evolutionary connection between these subtypes. On the other hand, intermediate He-rich- and extreme He-rich sdOB/Os are more likely to be related. Furthermore, we conclude that the vast majority of this population is formed via one or several binary merger channels. Hot subdwarfs with temperatures cooler than ~24 000 K tend to show fewer and smaller RV-variations. These objects might constitute a new subpopulation of binaries with longer periods and late-type or compact companions. The RV-variability properties of the extreme horizontal branch (EHB) and corresponding post-EHB populations of the He-poor hot subdwarfs match and confirm the predicted evolutionary connection between them. Stars found below the canonical EHB at somewhat higher surface gravities show large RV variations and a high RV variability fraction. These properties are consistent with most of them being low-mass EHB stars or progenitors of low-mass helium white dwarfs in close binaries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Characterizing the multisectoral impacts of future global hydrologic variability

There is significant uncertainty in how global water supply will evolve in the future, due to uncertain climate, socioeconomic, and land use change drivers and variability of hydrologic processes. It is critical to characterize the potential impacts of uncertainty in future water supply given its importance for food and energy production. In this work, we introduce a framework that integrates stochastic hydrology and human-environmental systems to characterize uncertainty in future water supply and its multisector impacts. We develop a global stochastic watershed model and demonstrate that this model can generate a large ensemble of realizations of basin-scale runoff with global coverage that preserves the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of a historical benchmark. We couple this model with a well-known human-environmental systems model to explore the impacts of runoff variability on the water and agricultural sectors across spatial scales. We find that the impacts of future hydrologic variability vary across sectors and regions. Impacts are felt most strongly in the water and agricultural sectors for basins that are expected to have unsustainable water use in the future, such as the Indus River basin. For this basin, we find that the variability in future irrigation water withdrawals and irrigated cropland increase over time due to uncertainty in renewable water supply. We also use the Indus basin to show how our stochastic ensemble can be leveraged to explore the global multisector consequences of local extreme runoff conditions. This work introduces a novel technique to explore the propagation of future hydrologic variability across human and natural systems and spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers

Abstract The hydrologic cycle is a fundamental component of the climate system with critical societal and ecological relevance. Yet gaps persist in our understanding of water fluxes and their response to increased greenhouse gas forcing. The stable isotope ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in water provide a unique opportunity to evaluate hydrological processes and investigate their role in the variability of the climate system and its sensitivity to change. Water isotopes also form the basis of many paleoclimate proxies in a variety of archives, including ice cores, lake and marine sediments, corals, and speleothems. These records hold most of the available information about past hydrologic variability prior to instrumental observations. Water isotopes thus provide a ‘common currency’ that links paleoclimate archives to modern observations, allowing us to evaluate hydrologic processes and their effects on climate variability on a wide range of time and length scales. Building on previous literature summarizing advancements in water isotopic measurements and modeling and describe water isotopic applications for understanding hydrological processes, this topical review reflects on new insights about climate variability from isotopic studies. We highlight new work and opportunities to enhance our understanding and predictive skill and offer a set of recommendations to advance observational and model-based tools for climate research. Finally, we highlight opportunities to better constrain climate sensitivity and identify anthropogenically-driven hydrologic changes within the inherently noisy background of natural climate variability.

Dee, Sylvia (ORCID:000000022140785X)↗

Coordinated time variability of multi-phase ultra-fast outflows in J132216.25 + 052446.3

ABSTRACT We present a time variability analysis of broad absorption lines (BAL; spread over the velocity range of 5800–29 000 km s−1) seen in the spectrum of J132216.25 + 052446.3 (zem = 2.04806) at ten different epochs spanning over 19 yr. The strongest absorption component (BAL-A; spread over 5800–9900 km s−1) is made up of several narrow components having velocity separations close to C iv doublet splitting. The C iv, N v, and Si iv absorption from BAL-A show correlated optical depth variability without major changes in the velocity structure. A very broad and shallow absorption (BAL-C; spread over the velocity range 15 000–29 000 km s−1) emerged during our monitoring period coinciding with a dimming episode of J1322 + 0524. All the identified absorption lines show correlated variability with the equivalent widths increasing with decreasing flux. This together with the C iv emission line variability is consistent with ionization being the main driver of the correlated variability. The observed UV-continuum variations are weaker than what is required by the photoionization models. This together with a scatter in the C iv equivalent width at a given continuum flux can be understood if variations of the C iv ionizing photons are much larger than that of the UV continuum, the variations in the ionizing photon and UV fluxes are not correlated and/or the covering factor of the flow varies continuously. We suggest BAL-A is produced by a stable clumpy outflow located beyond the broad emission line region and BAL-C is a newly formed wind component located near the accretion disc and both respond to changes in the ionizing continuum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

XRISM high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy of Cygnus X-1: Orbital and short-term variability of iron absorption

We present the first high-resolution spectroscopy of the black hole high-mass X-ray binary Cygnus X-1 with XRISM, including orbital-phase-resolved analyses and tentative evidence of short-term variability in the Fe K band on second timescales. Using data from the Performance Verification phase in 2024 April, we analyzed spectral variability across orbital phases with the Resolve microcalorimeter and the Xtend CCD imager. The unprecedented resolution of Resolve reveals variability in highly ionized Fe absorption lines. The absorption features show orbital-phase-dependent variability in column density, ionization state, and blueshifted velocity, suggesting structural variations in the focused stellar wind along the line of sight. We also find indications of subtle broadening of the neutral Fe emission profile. In addition, intensity-sorted spectroscopy during dip phases suggests possible variability on timescales of a few seconds in the absorption features, consistent with cooler, denser, and lower-ionized gas clumps. Although the statistical significance is limited, these results hint that the stellar wind and the X-rays from the accretion disk around the black hole may interact on timescales as short as a few seconds. These XRISM results constrain wind-fed accretion in Cyg X-1 and highlight Resolve’s capability to probe plasma environments in high-mass X-ray binaries.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

Training data selection for event classification in a highly variable environment

A problem of interest for nuclear nonproliferation is monitoring activities at nuclear facilities, where proliferation events may only take place a few times and often under variable conditions. Machine learning has revolutionized data analytics by enabling the use of measurable signatures to generate predictive models of facility operations. However, traditional methods for training these models require large, reliable data sets with labeled observations, a challenge for nonproliferation. Highly variable conditions further complicate this as events from training data may have occurred in conditions quite different from the event of interest. Our hypothesis is that when events occur in a highly variable environment, careful training data selection for each test event could outperform the standard approach of using all available training data. We developed a method to optimize training data selection for the given test event and applied it to predicting the power level of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In this study, the reactor startup exhibits variability between occurrences due to natural variability in environmental conditions and operational procedures. Using a combination of analysis techniques, a similitude assessment was performed on data collected from HFIR to isolate clusters that were optimal for training a predictive model. Concepts such as dynamic time warping and Jaccard similarity were used in conjunction with clustering analysis. In order to validate this approach, the model was trained on every combination of unique training events and the predictive performance was compared to the performance using a subset of the training data selected by isolated clusters found through the similitude assessment.

Iyer, A↗

Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales

Changes in precipitation variability can have large societal consequences, whether at the short time scales of flash floods or the longer time scales of multiyear droughts. Recent studies have suggested that in future climate projections, precipitation variability rises more steeply than does its mean, leading to concerns about societal impacts. Here we evaluate changes in mean precipitation over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales using a range of models from high-resolution regional simulations to millennial-scale global simulations. Results show that changes depend on the scale of aggregation and involve strong regional differences. On local scales that resolve individual rainfall events (hours and tens of kilometers), changes in precipitation distributions are complex and variances rise substantially more than means, as is required given the well-known disproportionate rise in precipitation intensity. On scales that aggregate across many events, distributional changes become simpler and variability changes smaller. At regional scale, future precipitation distributions can be largely reproduced by a simple transformation of present-day precipitation involving a multiplicative shift and a small additive term. The “extra” broadening is negatively correlated with changes in mean precipitation: in strongly “wetting” areas, distributions broaden less than expected from a simple multiplicative mean change; in “drying” areas, distributions narrow less. Precipitation variability changes are therefore of especial concern in the subtropics, which tend to dry under climate change. Outside the tropics, variability changes are similar on time scales from days to decades (i.e., show little frequency dependence). This behavior is highly robust across models, suggesting it may stem from some fundamental constraint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

First Measurement of Differential Charged Current Quasielastic-like $\nu_\mu$–Argon Scattering Cross Sections In Kinematic Imbalance Variables With The MicroBooNE Detector

We report the first measurement of flux-integrated multi-differential cross sections for charged-current events with muon neutrinos scattering on argon with solely a muon and a single proton in the final state as a function of kinematic imbalance variables. The measurement was carried out using the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory within the MicroBooNE Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber detector with an exposure of 6.79 × 10 20 protons on target. Events were selected to enhance the contribution of charged-current mesonless interactions with one proton detected in the final state. The data discussed here are reported in terms of multidifferential cross sections in kinematic imbalance variables, which are generally sensitive to nuclear effects. The double-differential results in these variables can provide an excellent handle to disentagle specific nuclear aspects not easily isolated via single differential cross sections. Our results pave a path towards identifying regions of the phase-space where future interaction modeling development and Monte Carlo neutrino generator tuning efforts should concentrate. EVENT SELECTION Neutrino oscillation measurements aim to extract neutrino mixing angles, mass differences, the value of the chargeparity violating phase in the lepton sector, and to search for new physics beyond the Standard Model [1, 2]. For that to be achieved, an unprecedented understanding of neutrino-argon interactions is of utmost importance since a growing number of neutrino oscillation experiments employ Liquid Argon Time Projector Chamber (LArTPC) neutrino detectors [3–6]. The accuracy to which these experiments can extract neutrino oscillation parameters requires a good understanding of the neutrino energy. Experimentally, this energy is deduced from the measured kinetic energies of particles that are emitted following the neutrino interaction in the detector. The kinematic properties of such finalstate particles reflect complex dynamics due to nuclear and initial-state effects of the interaction [7]. However, certain categories of nuclear effects can be isolated by variables built specifically to characterize the degeneracy between such effects [8–10]. This note reports cross sections in kinematic variables sensitive to nuclear effects using events with one detected muon with momentum 0.1 < pµ < 1.2 GeV/c, and exactly one proton with 0.3 < pp < 1 GeV/c. This signal definition includes events with any number of protons below 300 MeV/c, neutrons at any momenta, and charged pions with momentum lower than 70 MeV/c. This choice is guided by the fact that their experimental signature of correlated muon-proton pairs is fairly straightforward to reconstruct [11–22]. Such events primarily originate from chargedcurrent (CC) neutrino-nucleon quasielastic (QE) scattering interactions where the neutrino removes a single intact nucleon from the nucleus without producing any additional particles. This definition can also include contributions from interactions that lead to the production of additional particles that are absent from the final state due to nuclear effects, such as pion absorption, or have momenta that are below the experimental detection threshold.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Design and Operation of Energy Systems with Large Amounts of Variable Generation: IEA Wind TCP Task 25 (Final Summary Report)

This report summarizes findings on wind integration from the 17 countries or sponsors participating in the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Program (IEA Wind TCP) Task 25 from 2006-2020. Both real experience and studies are reported. Many wind integration studies incorporate solar energy, and most of the results discussed here are valid for other variable renewables in addition to wind. The national case studies address several impacts of wind power on electric power systems. In this report, they are grouped under long-term planning issues and short-term operational impacts. Long-term planning issues include grid planning and capacity adequacy. Short-term operational impacts include reliability, stability, reserves, and maximizing the value of wind in operational timescales (balancing related issues). The first section presents the variability and uncertainty of power system-wide wind power, and the last section presents recent studies toward 100% shares of renewables. The appendix provides a summary of ongoing research in the national projects contributing to Task 25 for 2021-2024. The design and operation of power and energy systems is an evolving field. As ambitious targets toward net-zero carbon energy systems are announced globally, many scenarios are being made regarding how to reach these future decarbonized energy systems, most of them involving large amounts of variable renewables, mainly wind and solar energy. The secure operation of power systems is increasingly challenging, and the impacts of variable renewables, new electrification loads together with increased distribution system resources will lead to somewhat different challenges for different systems. Tools and methods to study future power and energy systems also need to evolve, and both short-term operational aspects (such as power system stability) and long-term aspects (such as resource adequacy) will probably see new paradigms of operation and design. The experience of operating and planning systems with large amounts of variable generation is accumulating, and research to tackle the challenges of inverter-based, nonsynchronous generation is on the way. Energy transition and digitalization also bring new flexibility opportunities, both short and long term.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Wave resource spatial and temporal variability dependence on WEC size

As the wave energy sector grows and looks to the Blue Economy for commercialization opportunities, there is a distinct and pressing need to clearly understand and quantify the coupled impacts of wave energy converter (WEC) size and wave resource characteristics on the annual energy production, spatial variability and temporal variability. Utilizing generic frequency domain representations of the Oscilla Power Triton WEC and spectral wave conditions at PacWave (Oregon), Los Angeles (California) and WETS (Hawaii), a series of interesting results emerge. Firstly, the ‘optimal’ WEC size, from an energy standpoint, is fundamentally dependent on the frequency distribution of the incoming wave variance density spectrum. Secondly, and from a seasonality perspective, the seasonal WEC energy generation doesn’t necessarily follow the seasonal distribution of gross wave power. Finally, from an hourly power variability perspective, a reduction in WEC size generally decreases variability. However, for each of the locations investigated, there appears to be a WEC size threshold; a threshold where further reducing WEC size results in increased power variability.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Kepler Data Analysis: Non-Gaussian Noise and Fourier Gaussian Process Analysis of Stellar Variability

We develop a statistical analysis model of Kepler stellar flux data in the presence of planet transits, non-Gaussian noise, and stellar variability. We first develop a model for the Kepler noise probability distribution in the presence of outliers, which make the noise probability distribution non-Gaussian. We develop a signal likelihood analysis based on this probability distribution, in which we model the signal as a sum of the star variability and planetary transits. We argue that these components need to be modeled together if optimal signal is to be extracted from the data. For the stellar variability model we develop an optimal Gaussian process analysis using a Fourier-based Wiener filter approach, where the power spectrum is non-parametric and learned from the data. We develop high dimensional optimization of the objective function, where we jointly optimize all the model parameters, including thousands of star variability modes, and planet transit parameters. We apply the method to Kepler-90 data and show that it gives a better match to the stellar variability than the existing methods, and robustly handles noise outliers. As a consequence, the planet radii have a higher value than what the existing methods give, including splines and celerite.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spectral Variability of VHS J1256–1257b from 1 to 5 μm

Multiwavelength time-resolved observations of rotationally modulated variability from brown dwarfs and giant exoplanets are the most effective method for constraining their heterogeneous atmospheric structures. In a companion paper, we reported the discovery of strong near-infrared variability in HST/WFC3/G141 light curves of the very red L-dwarf companion VHS J1256–1257b. In this paper, we present a follow-up 36 hr Spitzer/IRAC Channel 2 light curve together with an in-depth analysis of the Hubble space telescope (HST) and the Spitzer data. The combined data set provides time-resolved light curves of VHS1256b sampling 1.1 to 4.5 μm. The Spitzer light curve is best fit with a single sine wave with a period of 22.04 ± 0.05 hr and a peak-to-peak amplitude of 5.76 ± 0.04%. Combining the period with a previously measured projected rotational velocity (v sin i), we find that VHS1256b is most consistent with equatorial viewing geometry. The HST/G141+Spitzer spectral energy distribution favors a model with a T{sub eff} of 1000 K and low surface gravity with disequilibrium chemistry. The spectral variability of VHS1256b is consistent with predictions from partly cloudy models, suggesting that heterogeneous clouds are the dominant source of the observed modulations. We find evidence at the 3.3σ level for amplitude variations within the 1.67 μm CH{sub 4} band, which is the first such detection for a variable L-dwarf. We compare the HST/G141 time-resolved spectra of three red L-dwarfs with high-amplitude near-infrared rotational modulations and find that although their time-averaged spectra are similar, their spectroscopic variabilities exhibit notable differences. This diversity reinforces the advantage of time-resolved spectroscopic observations for understanding the atmospheres of brown dwarfs and directly imaged exoplanets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Near-infrared Census of RR Lyrae Variables in the Messier 3 Globular Cluster and the Period–Luminosity Relations

We present new near-infrared (NIR), JHK {sub s}, time-series observations of RR Lyrae variables in the Messier 3 (NGC 5272) globular cluster using the WIRCam instrument at the 3.6 m Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope. Our observations cover a sky area of ∼21′ × 21′ around the cluster center and provide an average of 20 epochs of homogeneous JHK {sub s}-band photometry. New homogeneous photometry is used to estimate robust mean magnitudes for 175 fundamental-mode (RRab), 47 overtone-mode (RRc), and 11 mixed-mode (RRd) variables. Our sample of 233 RR Lyrae variables is the largest thus far obtained in a single cluster with time-resolved, multiband NIR photometry. NIR-to-optical amplitude ratios for RR Lyrae in Messier 3 exhibit a systematic increase moving from RRc to short-period (P < 0.6 day) and long-period (P ≳ 0.6 day) RRab variables. We derive JHK {sub s}-band period–luminosity relations for RRab, RRc, and the combined sample of variables. Absolute calibrations based on the theoretically predicted period–luminosity–metallicity relations for RR Lyrae stars yield a distance modulus, μ=15.041±0.017 (statistical)±0.036 (systematic) mag, to Messier 3. When anchored to trigonometric parallaxes for nearby RR Lyrae stars from the Hubble Space Telescope and the Gaia mission, our distance estimates are consistent with those resulting from the theoretical calibrations, albeit with relatively larger systematic uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Joint Modeling of Quasar Variability and Accretion Disk Reprocessing Using Latent Stochastic Differential Equations

Quasars are bright active galactic nuclei powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the center of galaxies. Their stochastic brightness variability depends on the physical properties of the accretion disk and black hole. The upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to observe tens of millions of quasars, so there is a need for efficient techniques like machine learning that can handle the large volume of data. Quasar variability is believed to be driven by an X-ray corona, which is reprocessed by the accretion disk and emitted as UV/optical variability. We are the first to introduce an auto-differentiable simulation of the accretion disk and reprocessing. We use the simulation as a direct component of our neural network to jointly model the driving variability and reprocessing, trained with supervised learning on simulated LSST-like 10 yr quasar light curves. We encode the light curves using a transformer encoder, and the driving variability is reconstructed using latent stochastic differential equations, a physically motivated generative deep learning method that can model continuous-time stochastic dynamics. By embedding the physical processes of the driving signal and reprocessing into our network, we achieve a model that is more robust and interpretable. We demonstrate that our model outperforms a Gaussian process regression baseline and can infer accretion disk parameters and time delays between wave bands, even for out-of-distribution driving signals. Our approach provides a powerful framework that can be adapted to solve other inverse problems in multivariate time series.

Fagin, Joshua [City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (↗