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At least 145 records · Page 8

Lowering post‐construction yield assessment uncertainty through better wind plant power curves

Abstract Many operational analyses of wind power plants require a statistical relationship, which can be called the wind plant power curve, to be developed between wind plant energy production and concurrent atmospheric variables. Currently, a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution is the industry standard for post‐construction yield assessments. Here, we evaluate the benefits in augmenting this conventional approach by testing alternative regressions performed with multiple inputs, at a finer time resolution, and using nonlinear machine‐learning algorithms. We utilize the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open‐source software package OpenOA to assess wind plant power curves for 10 wind plants. When a univariate generalized additive model at daily or hourly resolution is used, regression uncertainty is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 1.0 % and 1.2 % (corresponding to a −59 % and −80 % relative change), respectively, compared to a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution; also, a more accurate assessment of the mean long‐term wind plant production is achieved. Additional input variables also reduce the regression uncertainty: when temperature is added as an input to the conventional monthly linear regression, the operational analysis uncertainty connected to regression is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 0.5 % (−43 % relative change) for wind power plants with strong seasonal variability. Adding input variables to the machine‐learning model at daily resolution can further reduce regression uncertainty, with up to a −10 % relative change. Based on these results, we conclude that a multivariate nonlinear regression at daily or hourly resolution should be recommended for assessing wind plant power curves.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Analysis of hydrogen infrastructure for the feasibility, economics, and sustainability of a fuel cell powered data center

Data centers used for internet data services, cloud computing, and/or data storage consume vast amounts of electricity and are increasing rapidly in capacity. Consequently, their power consumption has raised concerns about energy sustainability and environmental impacts. Large-scale, on-site renewable energy could help reduce data centers’ carbon footprint; however, wind and solar power alone cannot provide an uninterrupted power supply to computer servers due to their natural variability. Instead, reliable power integration can be achieved by using fuel cells powered by hydrogen from sustainable resources (e.g., wind and solar energy). Establishing a hydrogen infrastructure will be critical for realizing these benefits and establishing fuel cells as a viable power source for data centers. Here, to facilitate the development of novel carbon-free fuel cell data enters, this paper presents renewable power integrated with hydrogen infrastructures in four scenarios to provide reliable hydrogen supply from production to storage. Various paths were analyzed toward a hydrogen supply infrastructure by determining the proper component sizes and calculating the cost of meeting the server load. We used a microgrid modeling software, Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Energy Resources (HOMER), and studied the feasibility of fuel cell powered data centers employing renewable hydrogen. The modeling results show various renewable integration configurations to meet reliable and sustainable power requirement under four scenarios for a carbon-free data center.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Ten questions concerning energy flexibility in buildings

Demand side energy flexibility is increasingly being viewed as an essential enabler for the swift transition to a low-carbon energy system that displaces conventional fossil fuels with renewable energy sources while maintaining, if not improving, the operation of the energy system. Building energy flexibility may address several challenges facing energy systems and electricity consumers as society transitions to a low-carbon energy system characterized by distributed and intermittent energy resources. For example, by changing the timing and amount of building energy consumption through advanced building technologies, electricity demand and supply balance can be improved to enable greater integration of variable renewable energy. Although the benefits of utilizing energy flexibility from the built environment are generally recognized, solutions that reflect diversity in building stocks, customer behavior, and market rules and regulations need to be developed for successful implementation. In this paper, we pose and answer ten questions covering technological, social, commercial, and regulatory aspects to enable the utilization of energy flexibility of buildings in practice. In particular, we provide a critical overview of techniques and methods for quantifying and harnessing energy flexibility. We discuss the concepts of resilience and multi-carrier energy systems and their relation to energy flexibility. We argue the importance of balancing stakeholder engagement and technology deployment. Finally, we highlight the crucial roles of standardization, regulation, and policy in advancing the deployment of energy flexible buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Critical Exploration of the Efficiency Impacts of Demand Response From HVAC in Commercial Buildings

Increasing quantities of renewable energy generation has yielded a need for greater energy storage capacity in power systems. Thermal storage in variable air volume (VAV) heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) in commercial buildings has been identified as an inexpensive source of grid storage, but the true costs are not known. Recent literature explores the inefficiency associated with providing grid services from these HVAC-based demand response (DR) resources by employing a battery analogy to calculate round-trip efficiency (RTE). Results vary significantly across studies and in some cases reported efficiencies are strikingly low. This article has three objectives to address these prior results. First, we synthesize and expand on insights into existing literature by systematically exploring the potential causes for the discrepancies in results. We reinforce previous work indicating baseline modeling may drive differences across studies and deduce that control accuracy plays a role in the major differences between experiments and simulation. Second, we discuss why the RTE metric is problematic for DR applications, discuss another proposed metric, additional energy consumption (AEC), and propose an extension, which we call uninstructed energy consumption (UEC), to evaluate DR performance. Finally, we explore the merits of different metrics using experimental data and highlight UEC's reduced sensitivity to the characteristics of the DR signal than previously proposed metrics.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Integrating Cambium Marginal Costs into Electric Sector Decisions: Opportunities to Integrate Cambium Marginal Cost Data into Berkeley Lab Analysis and Technical Assistance

NREL’s Cambium tool generates forward-looking simulations of marginal wholesale electricity costs associated with NREL’s Standard Scenarios. The scenarios include growing shares of variable renewable energy (VRE, i.e. wind and solar), among other power sector assumptions, between 2018 and 2050. The tool’s primary output—hourly costs at more than 130 balancing areas—could serve as public and transparent data source that supports electric-sector decision-making processes across the U.S. Berkeley Lab conducts a large range of analyses that use historical and forward-looking wholesale electricity prices to inform electric-sector decisions. In this report, Berkeley Lab uses its expertise to evaluate the Cambium cost data. We compare Cambium data with historical wholesale prices for the year 2018 and other modeled prices for the year 2030. We then present eight case studies in which Berkeley Lab researchers use Cambium data to replicate previous analyses based on other price datasets. We describe where primary findings and underlying key price dynamics align or differ, and highlight possible novel insights from the Cambium data. Finally, we qualitatively evaluate the suitability of Cambium costs in ten additional Berkeley Lab studies, though a direct comparison with alternative price data was not feasible at this time. The goal is to inform how electric-sector decision-makers and DOE program offices may be able to use this cohesive dataset, and to highlight what improvements to Cambium may make it even more useful.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Open Source High Fidelity Modeling of a Type-5 Wind Turbine Drivetrain

The increasing integration of renewable energy resources in evolving bulk power system (BPS) is impacting the system inertia. Type-5 wind turbine generation has the potential to behave like a traditional synchronous generator and can help mitigate the impact on system inertia. A hydraulic torque converter (TC) and gearbox with torque limiting feature are integral parts of a Type-5 wind turbine unit. A high fidelity model of Type-5 wind turbine drivetrain is not openly and widely available for grid integration and transient stability studies. This hinders appropriate assessment of Type-5 wind power plant’s contribution to bulk grid resilience. This work develops and validates a TC model based on those generally used in automobile’s transmission system. Moreover, the concept of torsional coupling is leveraged to integrate the TC and gearbox system dynamics. The entire integrated model will be open sourced and publicly available for grid integration studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Performance Assessment of High Efficiency Variable Speed Air-Source Heat Pump in Cold Climate Applications

This project was part of an effort by ComEd's emerging technology program to evaluate the energy saving potential of new energy efficiency technologies. The focus of this technology assessment was to determine energy and peak demand savings potentials of a high efficiency variable speed, air-source, split system heat pump designed for cold climate applications. The results of this technology assessment will be used by CLEAResult to develop a new energy efficiency measure for Commonwealth Edison Company's incentive programs. The project utilized the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Thermal Test Facility to experimentally characterize cooling and heating performance of a high efficiency heat pump split system under varying outdoor climate conditions. The selected climate conditions represented summer and low temperature winter conditions in ComEd's service territory. The laboratory experimentation results were used to develop equipment performance curves required by EnergyPlus hourly simulation engine. Using typical meteorological year 3 weather data for the Chicago O'Hare airport, hourly building simulations (using the EnergyPlus engine) was utilized to estimate the annual energy savings of the high efficiency heat pump in comparison to a standard efficiency unit in the following U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) building codes program energy prototypes: Single-family residence; Strip mall; and Low-rise office.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Demonstrating Advanced Nuclear Energy Solutions for Net Zero

Background/Objectives. The aggressive goals being set by nation states, communities, and private industry for decarbonization of grid electricity, industrial heat sources, and transportation around the world are imperative to mitigating the devastating effects that we are seeing from climate change. Although many of these goals focus on accomplishments by 2035 or 2050, the decisions that we make today won’t just impact the landscape of energy systems for the next 20 or 30 years—they will shape the world’s environment for centuries to come. That means that we can’t just focus on technologies that will get us to 2050, but technologies that will withstand our energy demands over that long-ranging future. Success will require us to utilize all of the clean energy resources that we have available to meet demands for electricity, heat, and steam, and we will need energy carriers such as hydrogen that do not emit additional greenhouse gases at the point of use. Nuclear energy, ranging from technologies in service today to advanced, higher temperature and modular systems that will be in service this decade, will provide a robust complement to renewable energy resources that operate variably. Researchers across the U.S. Department of Energy laboratory complex are working to advance multiple aspects of these clean energy solutions, with many focusing on integrated energy system solutions that leverage all available clean energy assets to meet wide-ranging energy demands. Approach/Activities. Nuclear energy is a proven, zero-emission option during operation that can provide consistent, dispatchable power to meet electricity demands while also providing high-quality heat that can meet energy demands beyond the electricity sector. Energy system design should seek to maximize these assets. As a dispatchable energy source with a small land utilization footprint, nuclear energy can be collocated with renewable resources, and the smaller systems that will be deployed this decade (ranging from a few megawatts to hundreds of megawatts) can be installed right where that energy is needed. Integrated nuclear and renewable systems will enhance power grid reliability and resilience, and they will help stabilize the grid through their increasingly flexible operation. Licensing, installation, and broad adoption of these advanced nuclear energy systems are expected to progress significantly in the 2020s, but this may be longer than desired by some stakeholders wishing to implement impactful clean energy decisions today. However, one must recall that nuclear energy systems will operate for 80 or more years, as is being demonstrated by current fleet nuclear systems. The nuclear community is extremely thorough in reviewing these systems with regard to safety and security; these efforts ensure that the deployed systems will continue to provide reliable, resilient energy over that operational lifetime. That investment of time up front will ensure that we can support energy demands over the centuries to come. While advanced nuclear technologies move through this process, communities and private industry may choose to install renewable generation systems that can later be coupled to the complementary nuclear systems as they become available—thus moving closer to the net zero goals in the near term. Choosing technologies and deployment configurations that allow small modular nuclear powerhouses to be added to these “energy parks” as they become available will ensure that advanced technologies can be readily adopted to support growing demands for clean energy. Results/Lessons Learned. The primary focus of integrated energy systems (IES) research is to assess the technical and economic potential of novel multi-input, multioutput solutions that are expected to enhance energy system flexibility, reliability, and resilience as we pursue a clean energy transition. Various energy applications and product streams beyond electricity are being evaluated, ranging from generation of potable water to production of hydrogen, fertilizers, synthetic fuels, and various chemicals. In early FY23 Idaho National Laboratory (INL) will commission thermal energy generation systems that emulate nuclear fission energy input using electric heating and will allow for integrated system testing with thermal energy storage, hydrogen production via high temperature electrolysis (HTE), and power systems hardware to demonstrate operation of a clean energy park within a microgrid or larger grid infrastructure, supporting up to 450 kW of heat input via electric heating and demonstrating operation of HTE systems at the multi-hundred kW scale. This presentation will highlight the wide array of RD&D being conducted at INL and partner laboratories to develop and deploy nuclear and renewable-based IES that will be key to achieving our net zero goals, including both computational and experimental demonstrations. By working with key collaborators in industry, analytical st

08 HYDROGEN↗

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Carbon-Free Energy: How Much, How Soon?

The scientific consensus is that carbon emissions need to reach net zero by 2050 to stabilize a global temperature rise below 2 degrees C. Many studies have focused on reaching net zero in the power sector by 2050 and have posited the need for clean firm power sources. Resources such as nuclear, fossil generation with carbon capture and sequestration, or other technologies would be needed to complement variable wind and solar generation.

carbon dioxide↗

A Machine Learning Framework to Deconstruct the Primary Drivers for Electricity Market Price Events

As the electricity grid is moving towards a 100% Renewable Energy Source Bulk Power Grid, the overall operations of the power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically but also taking into account various controllable actions like renewable curtailment, transmission congestion mitigation, and energy storage optimization to make sure the grid is operating reliably. As a result, price formations in electricity markets have become quite complex. Traditional root cause analysis and statistical approaches are rendered inapplicable to analyze and infer the main drivers behind price formation in the modern grid and markets with variable renewable energy (VRE). In this paper, we propose a machine learning analysis framework to deconstruct some primary drivers for price formation in modern electricity markets with high renewable energy and the outcomes can be utilized for various critical aspects of market design, renewable dispatch and curtailment, operations, and cyber-security applications. The framework can be applied to any ISO or market data and in this paper it is applied to open-source publicly available datasets from California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and ISO New England.

machine learning (ML), electricity markets, Renewa↗

Storage-Induced Collapse of Lignin Macromolecular Structure and Its Impacts on the Biorefinery

Lignin plays a vital role in the economics of biorefineries, serving as a source of process energy and a feedstock for sustainable fuels and chemical production. While understanding lignin’s chemical composition is crucial, emerging evidence suggests that a more comprehensive understanding of its macromolecular structure is critical to explaining its complex behavior in the biorefinery. This study investigated the partial collapse of the lignin network in corn stover feedstock after harvest and storage as a result of the microbial digestion of hemicellulose. Fluorescence microscopy was used to detect the collapse of lignin in terms of lignin’s inter-molecular interaction and the re-orientation of lignin’s chromophores, by the changes in lignin’s fluorescence lifetime, anisotropy, and the number of effective emitters. With minimal sample perturbation, our in-situ microscopic results revealed lignin's coil-globule transition phenomena, which was only previously predicted by molecular dynamics modeling extracted lignin in solvent. This collapse of lignin macromolecular structure was confirmed by results from NMR, IR, Raman, and powder X-ray diffraction. We also investigated the impact of this storage-induced collapse on the downstream biorefinery processes. Our study revealed that the two major approaches for lignin valorization in the lignin-first biorefinery model, namely monomer extraction and milled wood lignin extraction, were negatively impacted by the lignin collapse. As changes during storage are a source of feedstock variability, our study highlights the importance of understanding the effect of feedstock handling on biorefinery operations and economics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

An Overview of Renewable Energy Desk Activities for Power Grid Operations and Planning

This document summarizes how grid operators can address gaps in their planning and operations to maintain reliability as they pursue clean energy goals. When transitioning to higher renewable energy levels, many system operators configure a dedicated renewable energy desk to manage variable renewable energy resource operation. Establishing such a desk in the control room can be a key step in the modernization effort. A renewable energy desk in a control room is a specialized hub focused solely on monitoring, predicting, and managing the influx of energy from renewable sources.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

TAG… You’re It, Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803!

Triacylglycerol (TAG), a ubiquitous energy storage molecule found mainly in eukaryotes, comprises glycerol esterified with three fatty acids of variable lengths and saturation states. TAG is also considered as a high-value biochemical because it can be converted into fatty acid methyl esters, key components of biodiesel, through transesterification with methanol. Thus, considerable efforts have been made to produce TAGs from CO2 as a renewable energy source.

BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,BIOMASS FUELS↗

Hybrid Power Purchase Agreements for Flexible 24/7 Energy Delivery – A Comprehensive Review of Current Practices and Research Pathways

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are becoming increasingly preferred among large energy consumers, such as data centers, to secure cost-effective energy and meet accelerating demand growth. Traditionally, variable renewable energy (VRE)-based PPAs operate on a pay-as-produced basis, balancing supply and demand for a relatively longer duration (e.g., annually). However, the focus is shifting toward matching supply and demand on an hourly basis to fully meet energy needs. This shift requires the integration of flexible energy resources, such as hydropower, thermal generation, and energy storage, to complement VRE sources like wind and solar, forming the foundation for 24/7 PPA. This work contributes by: (i) reviewing emerging market trends and current practices in PPA procurement, supported by data on PPA prices and technology portfolios; (ii) synthesizing the existing literature on modeling approaches for contract pricing, quantities, hybrid resource procurement, and risk management in 24/7 PPA design, while identifying key research gaps; and (iii) proposing an integrated 24/7 PPA design framework along with two contracting mechanisms from the perspectives of both PPA providers and consumers. The proposed framework highlights critical modeling challenges, risk-allocation issues, and future research opportunities for 24/7 PPA design.

24/7↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Capacity Expansion Planning

This report quantifies the uncertainty in output decisions from a Capacity Expansion Planning (CEP) model. The need to understand how uncertainties within CEP models and modeling assumptions affect Quantities of Interest (QoIs) such as expansion and operating costs, as well as expansion decisions remains an ongoing challenge in scientific research and industrial operations. This area of research is particularly important for models which seek to capture how large networks will evolve and operate under increased sources of variable generation, i.e., higher penetration of renewable technologies such as solar and wind generators. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CEP models which estimate expansion costs and decisions, and production cost models which estimate operating costs and dispatch decisions, is a key focus of research at NREL. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) represents a state-of-the-art CEP model and considers a range of possible grid evolutions in an attempt to identify key drivers, ramifications, and decisions which contribute to better informed investment and policy decisions. However, research to quantify how uncertainties and model assumptions, such as unit commitment (UC), within ReEDS may be affecting its outputs remains challenging due to to size and complexity of the model

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Optimal Wind Turbine Design for H2 Production

The Optimal Wind Turbine Design for Hydrogen Production work seeks to address the H2@Scale program's goal to "advance affordable hydrogen production" by optimizing the wind turbine design specifically for hydrogen (H2) production. The project identifies optimal wind turbine designs made specifically for hydrogen production to advance affordable green hydrogen production. The project also couples wind turbine, wind plant, solar plant, and electrolyzer models to predict hydrogen production from variable, renewable power sources.

electrolyzer↗

Modeling and Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop Validation of Synchronous Machine Governor

This paper introduces the development of a high-fidelity gas turbine governor model using a programmable logic controller for power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) validation. The governor model is integrated with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) PHIL test bed, featuring a 2-MVA synchronous machine and a 2.5-MW variable-speed drive, to emulate NG-driven HRSGs and CTs under various operational scenarios. The primary objective of this research is to study the grid-connected and islanding operations of conventional generation sources, with representative startup sequences including turbine purge, ignition, speed ramp-up, synchronization, and breaker closure. Preliminary results of the generator governor model on NREL PHIL platform, particularly using the 2.5-MW dynamometer system, offered significant insights into the modeling techniques, hardware integration, scaling, and real-world simulation dynamics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗