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At least 145 records · Page 8

Photovoltaics as a terrestrial energy source. Volume 2: System value

Assumptions and techniques employed by the electric utility industry and other electricity planners to make estimates of the future value of photovoltaic (PV) systems interconnected with U.S. electric utilities were examined. Existing estimates of PV value and their interpretation and limitations are discussed. PV value is defined as the marginal private savings accruing to potential PV owners. For utility-owned PV systems, these values are shown to be the after-tax savings in conventional fuel and capacity displaced by the PV output. For non-utility-owned (distributed) systems, the utility's savings in fuel and capacity must first be translated through the electric rate structure (prices) to the potential PV system owner. Base-case estimates of the average value of PV systems to U.S. utilities are presented. The relationship of these results to the PV Program price goals and current energy policy is discussed; the usefulness of PV output quantity goals is also reviewed.

Smith, J. L.↗

Low NOx heavy fuel combustor concept program addendum: Low/mid heating value gaseous fuel evaluation

The combustion performance of a rich/quench/lean (RQL) combustor was evaluated when operated on low and mid heating value gaseous fuels. Two synthesized fuels were prepared having lower heating values of 10.2 MJ/cu m. (274 Btu/scf) and 6.6 MJ/cu m (176 Btu/scf). These fuels were configured to be representative of actual fuels, being composed primarily of nitrogen, hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. A liquid fuel air assist fuel nozzle was modified to inject both of the gaseous fuels. The RQL combustor liner was not changed from the configuration used when the liquid fuels were tested. Both gaseous fuels were tested over a range of power levels from 50 percent load to maximum rated power of the DDN Model 570-K industrial gas turbine engine. Exhaust emissions were recorded for four power level at several rich zone equivalence ratios to determine NOx sensitivity to the rich zone operating point. For the mid Btu heating value gas, ammonia was added to the fuel to simulate a fuel bound nitrogen type gaseous fuel. Results at the testing showed that for the low heating value fuel NOx emissions were all below 20 ppmc and smoke was below a 10 smoke number. For the mid heating value fuel, NOx emissions were in the 50 to 70 ppmc range with the smoke below a 10 smoke number.

Novick, A. S.↗

Efficient load measurements using singular value decomposition

Various basic research was performed on efficient load measurement estimation techniques for aircraft structure analysis. An overview is presented of the load measurement problem. Two basic equivalent approaches to load measurement evaluations were considered. Under approach 1, the load values are modeled as depending linearly on the measured values. Under approach 2, the measured values depend linearly on the load values. By using the modern Singular Value Decomposition method, it was shown that under all conditions of the number of loads and number of gages, approach 1 is equivalent to approach 2. By using the conventional normal equation (linear regression) approach, approach 1 is only valid when the number of loads is equal to or greater than the number of gages, while approach 2 is the reverse. Furthermore, except for the case of the number of loads equals the number of gages, the load prediction formulas under the two approaches are not equivalent.

Yao, Kung↗

Fractal distributions of stress and strength and variations of b-value

A two-dimensional planar fault zone on which the difference between stress and strength follows a fractal distribution is simulated to study the variation of the frequency-magnitude b-value under different distributions of heterogeneities and ambient stress levels. It is suggested that earthquakes occur in regions where this difference exceeds a specified value and that the size of these regions is a measure of the magnitude of the associated earthquake. A systematic variation in b-value is observed. It is found that the b-value has a positive correlation with the fractal dimension of the distribution and is inversely related to the ambient stress level. Observational data are compared with the simulation, showing that the observed b-value variation before and during earthquake sequences is a result of changes in both the ambient stress level and in the fractal dimension of the stress-strength distribution.

Huang, J.↗

The G value in plasma and radiation chemistry

The application of the G-value concept to plasma chemistry is considered. A general formula which expresses the G value for a general reaction in terms of experimentally controllable parameters is derived by applying simple gas-dynamic theory to a plasma reactor with straight walls. The formula expresses the G value as a function of the electrical power absorbed, the fraction of molecules transformed, and the flow rate of the gas entering the reactor. The formula was applied to the ammonia plasma radio-frequency discharge data of d'Agostino et al. (1981); the results showed that the G(-NH3) value lies in the range of 6.0-20 molecules/100 eV, depending on the conditions. This similarity of the G(-NH3) value with Peterson's (1974) range 2.7-10 found for the gas-phase radiolysis of ammonia, suggests that there might be a common reaction mechanism initiated by inelastic electron-molecule collisions.

Baird, James K.↗

High-Moisture Diet for Laboratory Rats: Complete Blood Counts, Serum Biochemical Values, and Intestinal Enzyme Activity

Rats were fed an irradiated high-moisture diet (KSC-25) with or without access to a water bottle. Physiologic values were compared between these two groups and a group of rats fed a purified diet. Hematologic and serum biochemical values, urine specific gravity, and intestinal enzyme activities were determined from samples collected from the three groups of rats. Sprague Dawley rats (n=32) fed the irradiated high-moisture diet with or without a water bottle were the test animals. Rats (n=16) fed an irradiated purified diet and water provided via a water bottle were the control group. The purified diet formulation, modified AIN-76A, is a commonly used purified diet for laboratory rodents. All rats remained alert and healthy throughout the study. A comparison of the physiologic values of rats in this study with reported normal values indicated that all of the rats in the study were in good health. Significant differences (P less than 0.05) of the physiologic values from each rat group are reported.

Battles, August H.↗

A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗

The Use of Absolute-Value Terms in Regression Modeling of Multi-Piece Force Balances

Different aspects of the use of absolute-value terms in regression models of the electrical outputs of multi-piece force balance calibration data are discussed. First, characteristics of a variety of regression model term combinations with absolute-value terms are reviewed that are currently used in the aerospace testing community to fit the gage outputs of a balance. Then, a semi-empirical test is presented that quantifies bidirectional characteristics of the balance bridge outputs. Several diagnostic methods are discussed to assess the severity of near-linear dependencies between regressors of models with absolute-value terms. In particular, connections between the linear, absolute-value, quadratic, signed quadratic, and cubic terms are studied in greater detail. Data from an automated calibration of NASAs MK29B force balance are used to illustrate the most important observations and results. Rules of thumb that variance-inflation factors be less than 10 must be relaxed when using absolute-value terms to describe bidirectional balances.

calibration analysis↗

On Expected Value Strong Controllability

The Probabilistic Simple Temporal Network (PSTN) generalizes Simple Temporal Networks with Uncertainty (STNUs) by introducing probability distributions over the timing of uncontrollable timepoints. PSTNs are controllable if there is a strategy to execute the controllable timepoints while bounding the risk of violating any constraint to a small value. If this risk bound can't be satisfied, PSTNs are not considered controllable. We introduce the Expected Value Probabilistic SimpleTemporal Network (EPSTN), which extends PSTNs by including a benefit to the satisfaction of temporal constraints. We study the problem of Expected Value Strong Controllability (EvSC) of EPSTNs, which seeks a schedule maximizing the expected value of satisfied constraints. We solve the EvSC problem by extending a previously developed linear program, combined with search over constraints to violate at execution time. We describe conditions under which the solution to this linear program is the maximum expected value schedule. We then show how to search for constraints to discard, using the linear program at the core of the search. While the general problem is shown to be exponential, we conclude by providing several methods to bound the complexity of search.

Planning↗

Building Demand Flexibility: Grid Service Value of Future Market Entrants

The building sector is an important source of demand-side flexibility that is crucial for renewable energy integration in the future power systems. The grid service value of building flexibility, especially that which provides load shifting, has not been analyzed for the United States. We use a technology-agnostic approach based on detailed grid expansion and production cost modeling results to evaluate the capacity, energy, and ancillary service values of a marginal kilowatt-hour (kWh) of daily, shiftable building flexibility as a presumed market entrant in the 2030 U.S. power systems. We find the monthly mean of building flexibility has a range of 0-38 cents/kWh-day, depending on the original usage hour, month, region, building flexibility parameters, and grid scenario. The daily value consists of the highest-value hour each day across all the scenarios has a range of 0-620 cents/kWh-day. The results are provided in an open database for users to obtain the values of specific technologies based on what services can be provided, when, and in what quantities.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Integrating the Value of Resilience into Energy Decisions

The value of resilience can be quantified and integrated into decision making to help inform economic, resilient, and sustainable energy deployment decisions using tools and analysis. Traditionally, distributed energy deployment decisions have often been based on how much energy, or how much money, a system can save. More and more, building owners and communities are recognizing that these systems can also provide a resilience value by sustaining critical loads during an outage. In order to consider the value of resilience in investment decisions, we must quantify how much resilience a system provides, assign a value to that resilience, and monetize that value through grid services, incentives, or other methods. This presentation discusses methods, tools, advantages, and challenges inherent to the process.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Competing Interests and Creating Value - Balancing Durable and Enforceable Institutional Controls with Beneficial Reuse - 20320

US DOE LM has various real property interests at the 100 sites within its current portfolio, with an anticipated total of 127 sites within the next 5 years. Each site has its own narrative with respect to the real property assets. Since the regulatory time frame for long-term surveillance and maintenance activities at some sites can be in perpetuity, durable and effective instruments and documentation are necessary to support LM's unique mission as a federal land manager and steward. More than half of the sites currently in LM's inventory do not allow unrestricted use, and institutional controls (ICs) are required to limit human and environmental exposures to residual contamination. LM's Asset Management program balances protection of human health and the environment with a goal of optimizing its land portfolio through mitigation of risk, limiting liability, and creating value, whether tangible or intangible, in these types of assets. The IC layering strategy utilizes multiple types, restrictions, and legal authorities to protect human health and the environment. This layering strategy influences the transition of these properties into LM's portfolio to assess potential beneficial reuses. The LM's beneficial reuse program aims to repurpose former contaminated sites to restore the environment, protect the public health, revitalize communities, and spur economic growth. LM strives to create value in a perceived valueless asset and reevaluates and revisits the potential opportunities for these sites as long-term surveillance and maintenance activities are performed and objectives are achieved. Beneficial reuse also promotes protectiveness by ensuring activities are compatible with long-term maintenance and protection of public health and the environment as well as ensuring activities are environmentally sound by retaining good stewardship of natural resources. LM has recently revised both the Institutional Control Program Guidance and its Beneficial Reuse Management Plan to integrate the issues of land use with ICs, creating value in these impaired assets. This paper presents the following topics: (1) a general overview of LM's IC and beneficial reuse programs; (2) the unique aspects of each of these programs as a result of the multiple regulatory requirements and programs that affect LM sites; (3) case studies of LM sites to show examples of how LM created value while complying with the ICs and layering strategies; and (4) the most common challenges to beneficial reuses at LM sites and potential options for value creation in impaired assets. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Valuing EV Managed Charging for Bulk Power Systems

When and where electric vehicle (EV) charging occurs has significant implications for power systems supporting widespread EV adoption, especially with high shares of wind and solar generation. This study extends previous works by leveraging detailed simulation models for EV adoption, EV use, EV charging, and bulk power system operations, and by linking them with methods for describing charging flexibility at both the individual vehicle and aggregate levels. This technical potential study focuses on how the value of EV managed charging (EVMC) changes depending on charging flexibility type (within-charging session or within-week scheduling), dispatch mechanism (direct load control or one of several price-based mechanisms), and managed charging participation rate. We show that naively aggregating EV charging flexibility from individual vehicles into megawatt-scale resources grossly overestimates the flexibility of the fleet, because such aggregate models can unrealistically pair, e.g., one already-fully-charged vehicle's ability to increase load with another already-charging vehicle's ability to accept more charge, effectively requesting a charging rate that is infeasible for the latter vehicle. We find per-vehicle bulk system value is highest at low participation rates for all dispatch mechanisms. Factoring in production cost savings, avoided firm capacity savings, and combustion-related power sector emissions savings, we estimate the value of EVMC at low participation rates (5%) to be $33/vehicle-year to $69/vehicle-yr for within-session charging flexibility and $40/vehicle-yr to $120/vehicle-yr for within-week charging flexibility in an envisioned 2038 New England power system and monetary value reported in 2016 U.S. dollars. At 100% participation, per-vehicle value declines to $25/vehicle-yr to $31/vehicle-yr for within-session charging flexibility and to $29/vehicle-yr to $36/vehicle-yr for within-week charging flexibility; however, 100% participation yields the highest total system savings.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The intrinsic value of bioblendstocks: Prenol as a case study

Decarbonizing the transportation sector is likely to require both electrification and increased incorporation of biofuels and/or bioblendstocks. While the social and environmental benefits of bioblendstocks are well understood, their real value for the fuel producers has not been established. As such, this work considers prenol as a bioblendstock case study to identify sources of intrinsic value to fuel blenders by studying the properties of binary mixtures with gasoline components. The considered refinery blendstocks were samples of full range naphthas from the distillation, fluidized catalytic cracking, isomerization, alkylation, and reforming units. Octane numbers, Reid vapor pressure, distillation curves, and sulfur content were evaluated. Our results indicate the need for adjusting the formulation of the base fuel, depending on the interplay among the properties of the bioblendstock and those of the base fuel. Prenol increased research octane number (RON) and octane sensitivity (OS) of the base fuel, by up to 25 and 10 octane numbers, respectively. Additionally, 10 vol% prenol reduced RVP up to 2.2 psi, for the more volatile blendstock. Thus, considering prenol as a low volatility, RON/OS boosting bioblendstock, the composition of the preferred base fuel was proposed as containing reduced olefins and aromatics, and increase light fractions. The potential impact of this new gasoline formulation on refining processes and products gives rise to direct sources of value to the refiners, such as exporting products to the chemicals market, increasing the value of intermediate refinery streams, decreasing operating severity of certain refinery units, and broadening of the product suite.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A computational analysis of effective R-values of buried ducts – the dynamic performance of buried ducts

Here, this paper evaluates the thermal performance of ducts partially or fully buried in loose-fill attic insulation. The overall thermal resistance between the ducts and the attic is referred to as an effective R-value. This paper shows a strong dependency of assumed attic temperature on the effective R-value. Based on the results, the effective R-value can be about twice as much with an attic temperature of 130 °F [54.4 °C], compared to when the attic temperature is 80 °F [26.7 °C]. Thus, this paper provides a polynomial regression equation based on a large set of simulations to determine the effective R-value of buried ducts depending on attic temperature and whether the HVAC system runs in cooling or heating mode. Further, the work presented in this paper investigated the potential impact of convective airflow within the attic insulation, particularly around the ducts. The analysis was based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and indicated that convectional forces are presented around the exterior surface of the ducts, but with negligible impact on the overall heat balance between the duct and the attic space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Clustering with Missing Values: No Imputation Required

Clustering algorithms can identify groups in large data sets, such as star catalogs and hyperspectral images. In general, clustering methods cannot analyze items that have missing data values. Common solutions either fill in the missing values (imputation) or ignore the missing data (marginalization). Imputed values are treated as just as reliable as the truly observed data, but they are only as good as the assumptions used to create them. In contrast, we present a method for encoding partially observed features as a set of supplemental soft constraints and introduce the KSC algorithm, which incorporates constraints into the clustering process. In experiments on artificial data and data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we show that soft constraints are an effective way to enable clustering with missing values.

constraints↗

On Boundary-Value Problems for RANS Equations and Two-Equation Turbulence Models

Currently, in engineering computations for high Reynolds number turbulent flows, turbulence modeling continues to be the most frequently used approach to represent the effects of turbulence. Such models generally rely on solving either one or two transport equations along with the Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations. The solution of the boundary-value problem of any system of partial differential equations requires the complete delineation of the equations and the boundary conditions, including any special restrictions and conditions. In the literature, such a description is often incomplete, neglecting important details related to the boundary conditions and possible restrictive conditions, such as how to ensure satisfying prescribed values of the dependent variables of the transport equations in the far field of a finite domain. In this article, we discuss the possible influence of boundary values, as well as near-field and far-field behavior, on the solution of the RANS equations coupled with transport equations for turbulence modeling. In so doing, we defne the concept of a welldefined boundary-value problem. Additionally, a three-dimensional, rather than a simpler one-dimensional analysis is performed to analyze the near-wall and far-field behavior of the turbulence model variables. This allows an assessment of the decay rate of these variables required to realize the boundary conditions in the far field. This paper also addresses the impact of various transformations of two-equation models (e.g., the model of Wilcox) to remove the singular behavior of the dissipation rate (ω) at the surface boundary. Finally, the issue of well-posedness regarding the governing equations is considered. A compelling argument (although not a proof) for ill-posedness is made for both direct and inverse problems.

Navier–Stokes equations↗

Valuing Maintenance Strategies for Fusion Plants as Part of a Future Electricity Grid

Scheduled maintenance is likely to be lengthy and therefore consequential for the economics of fusion power plants. The maintenance strategy that maximizes the economic value of a plant depends on internal factors such as the cost and durability of the replaceable components, the frequency and duration of the maintenance blocks, and the external factors of the electricity system in which the plant operates. Here, this paper examines the value of fusion power plants with various maintenance properties in a decarbonized United States Eastern Interconnection circa 2050. Seasonal variations in electricity supply and demand mean that certain times of year, particularly spring to early summer, are best for scheduled maintenance. Seasonality has two important consequences. First, the value of a plant can be 15% higher than what one would naively expect if value were directly proportional to its availability. Second, in some cases, replacing fractions of a component in shorter maintenance blocks spread over multiple years is better than replacing it all at once during a longer outage, even through the overall availability of the plant is lower in the former scenario.

power plant, maintenance, seasonality, electricity↗