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At least 145 records · Page 8

Dynamic computational optical fringe mitigation in tunable laser absorption spectroscopy

In optical spectroscopic systems where unwanted optical scattering cannot be eliminated, Fabry-Pérot etalons cause unpredictable changes in the spectral background. Frequent system calibration is then required to maintain the desired measurement accuracy, which presents a major limitation to the spectrometer. We introduce a computational approach to mitigate the adverse effects of optical fringing without hardware modifications. Motivated by experimental observations of complicated fringe behaviors, we simplify the problem by decomposing the fringe background into component etalons that can be addressed according to their individual characteristics. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a silicon photonic methane sensor, where accurate measurements of methane concentration are obtained from spectral data strongly affected by optical fringes.

Teng, Chu C. (ORCID:0000000152744835)↗

Machine learning of factors for improving oyster hatchery production

Oyster aquaculture and restoration in the Chesapeake Bay are vital, yet hatcheries frequently struggle with inconsistent larval growth and sudden mass mortality events. Unpredictable disruptions in larval production cause large economic losses, represent a perceived risk to growers, and impede industry expansion. To better understand associations between production yield and its potential predictors, we applied machine learning (random forest, and neural network) and statistical (generalized additive model) models to a comprehensive dataset of environmental, water quality, and operational parameters from a Maryland oyster hatchery, aiming to identify key yield predictors and develop a robust forecasting tool. We used recursive Boruta algorithm for variable selection, pinpointing critical predictors, and employed cross-validation to fine-tune model settings. Shapley value analysis offered crucial insights into model interpretations, highlighting week number, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, salinity, turbidity, and fecundity as primary drivers of yield variability. For low-yield cases, salinity-related variables were particularly important. Our findings provide an early warning system for potential production downturns, empowering hatchery operators to make data-driven decisions for optimizing water conditions, feeding schedules, and broodstock management. By boosting predictability and efficiency, this research directly supports economic stability of the oyster industry and ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

Economic Impact of Permitting Timelines on Produced Geothermal Power

Despite having a large geothermal power potential in the United States, only a small fraction has been developed for power generation. Various barriers, including technical, financial, and regulatory permit delays, are attributed to lower contribution of geothermal energy in the national grid. Unpredictable environmental reviews and permitting timelines are some of the non-technical barriers that can cause delays in geothermal exploration and utilization plans. This study shows that the geothermal permitting timelines can vary from six months to several years, depending on the presence or absence of biological resources, cultural resources, and sensitive environmental issues at the project site. The potential impacts of these permit barriers can range from investors abandoning geothermal development to making the product (i.e., electricity) more expensive and uncompetitive.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The genotype-phenotype landscape of an allosteric protein

Allostery is a fundamental biophysical mechanism that underlies cellular sensing, signaling, and metabolism. Yet a quantitative understanding of allosteric genotype-phenotype relationships remains elusive. Here, we report the large-scale measurement of the genotype-phenotype landscape for an allosteric protein: the lac repressor from Escherichia coli , LacI. Using a method that combines long-read and short-read DNA sequencing, we quantitatively measure the dose-response curves for nearly 10 5 variants of the LacI genetic sensor. The resulting data provide a quantitative map of the effect of amino acid substitutions on LacI allostery and reveal systematic sequence-structure-function relationships. We find that in many cases, allosteric phenotypes can be quantitatively predicted with additive or neural-network models, but unpredictable changes also occur. For example, we were surprised to discover a new band-stop phenotype that challenges conventional models of allostery and that emerges from combinations of nearly silent amino acid substitutions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DEEP Solar: Data DrivEn Modeling and Analytics for Enhanced System Layer ImPlementation

Realizing the SETO 2030 mission of reducing solar energy costs to 3-5 c/kWh will require innovative enabling research on effective, cost-efficient integration of local PV within distribution systems. However, the intermittent and variable nature of PVs compels operators to impose conservative hosting capacity constraints. Given the extremely high variability of (intermittent and unpredictable) solar energy generation, relaxing the capacity constraints (which are currently around 15%) and achieving 100% or greater integration of renewables will require a fundamental transformation of the power grid via the utilization of exponentially larger amounts of AMI enabled fine-grained data. To address the challenges in increasing the penetration of renewable energy based DERs, this project envisions an Enhanced System Layer (ESL) at the distribution network level that is reliable, cost-effective and scalable to millions of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)/devices. This includes developing: 1) Transformative and highly scalable machine learning based predictive analytics tools that plug into distribution system planning and provide real-time situational awareness at the distribution level for short and long-term operational planning. The tools will be built using novel data-driven energy models of millions of active nodes with AMI, 2) Adaptive stochastic analysis and optimization algorithms for real-time grid operations, 3) Dynamic Scenario Analysis using parallel Cloudenabled implementations with < 1 minute computational cycle times.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Virtual Metering for Monitoring Building Energy Consumption

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has standard metering requirements of commercial buildings for optimizing energy performance. The guiding principles are to continuously track and optimize energy performance and install building-level meters for electricity, natural gas, and steam. Some buildings at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) have physical submeters monitoring their energy consumption, but these meters have proven to be unreliable. And, in most cases, replacing them has proven to be a slow process. Installing new submeters also requires a temporary lockout of the circuit on which they are being installed. Many buildings at LANL contain laboratories with ongoing experiments or data centers, which makes an equipment power outage nearly impossible to plan. This inability to plan power outages results in long-term submeter failures. Although most submeters are eventually replaced, failures lead to missing consumption data for some unpredictable, extended time. A building automation system (BAS) is a system that provides control and monitoring on a building to maintain the operational performance of the building and occupancy comfort. Many buildings at LANL currently have a BAS, and all new renovations and installs will include installing a BAS if one does not already exist. The intended purpose for a BAS is primarily to monitor the health and efficiency of a building; however, it is also possible to calculate equipment power and energy consumption using BAS information. This project aims to use virtual meters to monitor building energy consumption as a cost-effective and minimally labor-intensive alternative to installing physical submeters. The fault detection and diagnostics tool, SkySpark, provides a centralized database for all the data from the various BAS that are active at LANL. This data includes the information that is needed to create virtual meters for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in most buildings, including heating and cooling loads. 9 This report begins with a detailed summary of the project, including the reasoning, procedure, and results. The specific processes of creating the various virtual meters are then identified. Then the limitations are discussed. And, lastly, the results and future potential are presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Report of the Condition of a General Electric Transportation Systems Gearbox

Wind power plant operations and maintenance (O&M) costs remain an appreciable contributor to the overall cost of wind energy. Premature of wind turbine gearboxes failures are often a result of abrasive wear, micropitting, scuffing, white-etch cracks, and macropitting issues. Micropitting is a fatigue phenomenon that occurs in Hertzian contacts in both gears and rolling-element bearings that operate in mixed or micro elastohydrodynamic lubrication regimes. Micropitting is influenced by and manifests itself in many different ways depending on operating conditions such as load, speed and operating temperature, and on factors such as gear geometry and accuracy, tooth flank roughness, percentage of tooth sliding, and lubricant composition. Despite much research by many investigators, micropitting remains complex, unpredictable, and difficult to control and remains a problem in wind turbine gearboxes. The purpose of this report is to document and describe the micropitting damage observed in a wind turbine gearbox, thereby facilitating further analysis and examination in future reports.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantum Random Number Generator (QRNG)

The Los Alamos QRNG is a hardware-based high-performance Random Number Generator capable of generating 200 Mbit/s or more of true random numbers. The device harvests entropy from fluctuations in an optical source that arise from quantum mechanical properties of light. These quantum effects are irreducibly random; the resulting numbers are unpredictable and beyond the influence of any adversary. Qrypt, Inc., launched in 2017, has amassed multiple quantum entropy sources to create high-quality random keys at scale. The company is engaging with Los Alamos through license and a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement to facilitate the transition of QRNG technology and deploy the technology into the marketplace.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling Noise: Paths toward AI-Enabled Stochastic Earth System Models and Parameterizations

Some of the key challenges in Earth system prediction arise from an uncertain representation of unpredictable natural variability, across time and space scales. This variability, hereafter referred to as noise, represents the quantity against which the strength of a signal of interest is measured to assess predictability. Underestimating or overestimating this noise in Earth system models can lead to issues ranging between overconfidence in an erroneous prediction and a lack thereof in an otherwise accurate one. Noise is part of the physical processes in the Earth system and can amplify or damp a signal of interest in a complex manner that is not systematically characterized. Specifically, while there has been significant progress in our understanding of multiscale interactions among known modes of variability (potentially predictable signals), how these are impacted by the noise is not clear. Recent effort toward stochastic parametrization schemes that provide a representation of noise due to uncertain sub-grid processes in climate models (Berner et al., 2017 and references therein) has shown promise not only in reducing biases and improving probabilistic prediction but also in improving the representation of natural variability in the model toward what is observed. However, today’s standard schemes for stochastic parametrization are still simplistic as they do not take the state of the atmosphere into account (other than by the use of multiplicative noise for model tendencies). Furthermore they require hand-tuning and trial-and-error testing for the magnitude of the added noise, which is difficult in a chaotic system that is as complex as the Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Towards A Geo-Data Science Method for Assessing Rare Earth Element and Critical Mineral Occurrences in Coal and Other Sedimentary Systems

While preliminary analyses of data from open-source resources (Ekmann, 2012) show promising concentrations of REE in individual coal samples from a number of sites and basins in the U.S., other sparse data for REE in domestic coal-related strata suggest that many occurrences are low, “subeconomic” concentrations. At present, there is no method for systematically assessing potential sedimentary occurrences of REE. However, the geologic processes responsible for REE occurrences in coal-related strata are systematic; the unpredictability of REE resources in coal-related strata is due to poorly quantified spatial resource trends and the lack of an exploration method tailored to these resources. Thus, there exists a need for a systematic assessment approach that incorporates knowledge of geological variation in the mechanisms of REE enrichment within coal basins to help minimize geologic uncertainty and reduce commercial exploration risk.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

5.5 Hybrid Additively Manufactured Tooling for Large Composite Structures

This program sought to lower tooling costs for tightly toleranced, large composite aerostructures by using large format additive manufacturing (LFAM). LFAM tooling has the potential to lower tooling costs, but the large and unpredictable thermal expansion of polymer-based tooling did not previously allow for the production of large structures made with high performance resins requiring 350 deg F cures. Geometric tolerance issues and demolding concerns continued to arise. The proposed approach for this work was to print a thin shell via additive manufacturing that would be used as a scaffold for a conventional tooling prepreg. The prepreg would be laminated and cured onto both sides of the shell, creating a tool with a sandwich construction. The cured prepreg would then be machined and serve as the tooling surface. In addition to providing a clean, pit-free surface, the prepreg stiffness and low thermal expansion would physically restrain the AM shell and prevent it from expanding during thermal cycling, thus preventing any geometric mismatch between the nominal and actual part dimensions. A stair-step approach was taken to prove out this approach. Coupon level testing was done to ensure a good bond was possible between the AM shell and the tooling prepreg. These samples were also used to determine the amount of prepreg needed to achieve the desired coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE). The project team than progressed to a subscale tool measuring two feet in length. The geometry used was a C-section spar from Airbus’ Wing of Tomorrow program. A hybrid tool, using the AM shell and tooling prepreg, was made, and a composite part was fabricated with the tool. Dimensional scans of the tool and part indicated that the desired CTE was achieved with the tool. A second tooling approach was taken to reduce risk. In this approach, a subscale tool of the same geometry as previously mentioned was created, but the tool was entirely constructed of the tooling prepreg. AM was used to print a “master” that was then used to fabricate the tool by creating a splash off of the master using tooling prepreg. The innovation was that the master was not machined, but rather, was used right off the printer after a small amount of surface preparation. Removing this machining step was thought to make this approach economically viable when compared to conventional master fabrication. As before, the tool was used to fabricate a part and tested for dimensional accuracy. For the conclusion of the program, a ten-foot tool was created using the hybrid tool approach. The geometry also came from the Airbus C-section spar previously mentioned. Some difficulty arose in accurately predicting the geometry of the tool after laminating the tooling prepreg, resulting in multiple material additions and a tool geometry change. A part was fabricated in an autoclave using the tool. A cost savings of almost 50% was achieved on the subscale tool in both the hybrid and master-style tool, but the savings dropped considerably as the tool length increased in the full-scale tool. Given the less than expected cost savings and added complexity of the tool construction, it is suggested that the master-style tool is best for immediate commercialization for larger tools (although it may be appropriate for smaller, table-top size tools). Since its construction is very similar to conventionally made composite tooling, there already exists a broad supply chain for building the tool, and project partner Additive Engineering Solutions (AES) is well acquainted with the design and build of the AM master needed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Verification of Data-Driven Models of Physical Phenomena using Interpretable Approximation

Machine-learned models, specifically neural networks, are increasingly used as “closures” or “constitutive models” in engineering simulators to represent fine-scale physical phenomena that are too computationally expensive to resolve explicitly. However, these neural net models of unresolved physical phenomena tend to fail unpredictably and are therefore not used in mission-critical simulations. In this report, we describe new methods to authenticate them, i.e., to determine the (physical) information content of their training datasets, qualify the scenarios where they may be used and to verify that the neural net, as trained, adhere to physics theory. We demonstrate these methods with neural net closure of turbulent phenomena used in Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show the types of turbulent physics extant in our training datasets, and, using a test flow of an impinging jet, identify the exact locations where the neural network would be extrapolating i.e., where it would be used outside the feature-space where it was trained. Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, we also generate explanations of the neural net (à la Local Interpretable Model agnostic Explanations) at prototypes placed in the training data and compare them with approximate analytical models from turbulence theory. Finally, we verify our findings by reproducing them using two different methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

National Academy of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, NASA Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey (Chapter 3)

Our inner Solar System has the four terrestrial planets, Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars, along with Earth’s large Moon, two small moons of Mars, dwarf planet Ceres, numerous 100-km class asteroids, and a multitude of small bodies that populate the asteroid belt and the inner planet region. To what extent does this structure reflect a deterministic outcome of general Solar System formation processes, and how much of it is instead a consequence of stochastic events that would change in unpredictable ways if the system’s formation could be rerun? This fundamental question motivates scientific investigations of the inner Solar System, with implications not only for understanding our own planet’s origin but also for the origin of planetary systems and Earth-like planets beyond our own.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

WhiteWind: White Etching Crack (WEC) Bearing Failures in Wind Turbine: Cooperative Research and Development, CRADA Number CRD-18-00758 (Final Report)

A WEC is a particularly aggressive, unpredictable and wide spread rolling element bearing failure mode that is common for large multi-megawatt (MW) wind turbines. WEC is considered the single most expensive failure mode for all wind turbine components, and there is currently no commercial solution. The Technical University of Denmark (DTU) is leading the WhiteWind project to investigate WECs through funding provided by the Innovation Fund Denmark. Other project partners include Vestas, SKF, Expanite, Rheinisch-Westfalische Technische Hochschule Aachen University (RWTH Aachen), and Argonne National Laboratory. The objective of the overall project is to develop a new surface engineered WEC-resistant bearing material using novel surface engineering techniques that shall provide a commercially competitive alternative to existing wind turbine bearings. NREL will support the project by providing existing measured bearing loads and validating models of drivetrain loads.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evolution of Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning at MESA

Early on in 2018 Sandia recognized the Microsystems Engineering, Science and Applications (MESA) Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning capability to be unpredictable, inconsistent, reactive, and unable to provide strong linkage to the sponsor's needs. The impetus for this report is to share learnings from MESA's journey towards maturing this capability. This report describes re-building the foundational elements of MESA's Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning capability using a risk-based, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach. To begin, MESA's decades-old Piano Chart + Ad Hoc Hybrid Methodology is described with a narrative of its strengths and weaknesses. Then its replacement, the MCDA /Analytical Hierarchy Process, is introduced with a discussion of its strengths and weaknesses. To generate a realistic Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning budget outlook, MESA used its rolling 20-year Extended Life Program Plan (MELPP) as a baseline. The new MCDA risk-based prioritization methodology implements DOE/NNSA guidelines for prioritization of DOE activities and provides a reliable, structured framework for combining expert judgement and stakeholder preferences according to an established scientific technique. An in-house Hybrid Decision Support System (HDSS) software application was developed to facilitate production of several key deliverables. The application enables analysis of the prioritization decisions with charts to display and provide linkage of MESA's funding requests to the stakeholders' priorities, strategic objectives, nuclear deterrence programs, MESA priorities, and much more.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: An Initial Analysis of the Data

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, major case reporting outlets quickly coalesced around two or three primary vendors. Johns Hopkins University and The New York Times were among the more prominent, and all were of great value to the nation, particularly during the uncertain early stages of the pandemic. They primarily focused on three major attributes: number of new cases, deaths, and recovery. Recognizing that many states were reporting very detailed data sets (e.g., hospital beds) at a county level or finer, the ORNL Pandemic Modeling team embarked on a major data curation effort from March to June 2020 for the purpose of capturing this wealth of detailed data. The challenge of curating this data was daunting. The number of attributes reported by the states grew on almost on a weekly basis. States were routinely shifting their web tool strategies away from easily parsable HTML-based formatting to new Tableau and ArcGIS content. This growth in the sheer number of attributes, combined with the unpredictable shifts in data format, meant an aggressive and agile combination of automated scripting and manual scraping was required to capture new daily streams. Further, the team had to scale up staff and widen its approach for capture and storage. As a result, the team collected more than 11 million data points. Following the close of this data collection effort on June 30 th , 2020, the team embarked on a major effort to appraise what had been collected, including an inventory list, spatial completeness, temporal completeness, scale and geographic characteristics, and a determination. A report on this matter was submitted on September 15 th , 2020, titled “DOE COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: Overview of Data Collection Coverage”. Over 2000 unique attributes had been netted over a wide range of spatial scales, including state, county, zip codes, health regions, and census blocks. Over 11 million individual data points were collected across these attributes, and spatial coverage (in total) included all 50 states and multiple territories. What became apparent in the process is that in the absence of any data standards, many states reported a wide variety of unique attributes that were not always compatible with attributes reported in other states. As time continued, states began adding new attributes and offering finer grain detail in some older attributes. This meant that not all data streams existed for the entire time period; in fact, the number tended to increase dramatically towards the end. Often, states would begin an attribute series and then stop altogether. These highly variable and uncertain conditions illuminated the need for harmonization approaches that would reconcile and conflate changing attribute names and detail over time. For example, grouping racial data reported as either Black or African American, depending on the state, into a single harmonized attribute. These choices would make a within-state analysis possible during the time period and lead to potential between-state analytics later on. This was almost entirely a manual decision process, requiring some subjective decision-making at times, to prevent a fragmented, short-lived collection of time series fragments that would offer few insights into trends, patterns, and correlates. This report imports harmonized data for state and county into the World Spatio-Temporal Analytics and Mapping Project (WSTAMP). WSTAMP is a major space-time analysis and visualization tool developed at ORNL for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency specifically for this kind of exploratory analysis. WSTAMP offers a rich analytical and graphical environment consisting of a wide range of analytics. These include time series plots, statistical summaries, data mining techniques, trend and pattern detection, and hypothesis generation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

AI-Based Protective Relays for Electric Grid Resiliency

The protection systems (circuit breakers, relays, reclosers, and fuses) of the electric grid are the primary component responding to resilience events, ranging from common storms to extreme events. The protective equipment must detect and operate very quickly, generally <0.25 seconds, to remove faults in the system before the system goes unstable or additional equipment is damaged. The burden on protection systems is increasing as the complexity of the grid increases; renewable energy resources, particularly inverter-based resources (IBR) and increasing electrification all contribute to a more complex grid landscape for protection devices. In addition, there are increasing threats from natural disasters, aging infrastructure, and manmade attacks that can cause faults and disturbances in the electric grid. The challenge for the application of AI into power system protection is that events are rare and unpredictable. In order to improve the resiliency of the electric grid, AI has to be able to learn from very little data. During an extreme disaster, it may not be important that the perfect, most optimal action is taken, but AI must be guaranteed to always respond by moving the grid toward a more stable state during unseen events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Economic Impact of Permitting Timelines on Geothermal Power in California, Nevada, and Utah

The United States has great geothermal power potential; however, only a small fraction of this resource has been utilized for power generation. Various barriers, including technical, financial, and regulatory permit delays, are attributed to the lower penetration of geothermal energy into the national grid. Unpredictable environmental reviews and permitting timelines are some of the non-technical barriers that can cause delays in geothermal exploration and utilization plans. This document provides an assessment of the potential economic impact of permitting costs and timelines on geothermal power in California, Nevada, and Utah. Development of geothermal resources requires multi-layered regulatory permitting by local, state, and federal agencies. In this study, we collected and reviewed permit timelines and associated cost data for several existing geothermal power plants as well as for geothermal projects currently undergoing permitting processes for exploration and development activities in California, Nevada, and Utah. We interviewed several geothermal developers and staff from multiple permitting agencies to obtain insight from both sides (i.e., people applying for permits and people processing those applications for California Environmental Quality Act [CEQA] and National Environmental Policy Act [NEPA] reviews and other regulatory compliance). The intent of this project was also to identify informative pathways for the geothermal stakeholder community by which the permitting process could be streamlined.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗