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Recent Trends in the Analysis of Quasioptical Systems

The recent trend in microwave instruments is the use of multiple millimeter and submillimeter wavelength bands. These systems are typically analyzed by using physical optics, Gaussian beams or ray tracing techniques. Physical optics offers high accuracy at the expense of computation time. This trade-off becomes particularly apparent in the analysis of multiple reflector antennas, such as beam waveguide antennas, where physical optics is used to compute the current on each reflector from the current on the previous reflector. At the other end of the spectrum is ray tracing approaches that ignore diffraction effects entirely. These methods are fast but sacrifice the ability to predict some effects accurately. An intermediate approach is to use an appropriate set of expansion functions to model the field between the reflectors. If the set is chosen wisely only a few coefficients need to be determined from each reflector current. The field is then computed at the next reflector through the use of the expansion functions and their coefficients rather than by using the previous reflector current. For a beam waveguide system with no enclosing tubes an excellent set of expansion functions is the Gaussian beam mode set. In many cases a preliminary design which includes the effects on diffraction may be obtained by considering only the fundamental mode and a thin lens model for the reflectors. Higher-order modes are included to model the effects of the curved reflector, which include asymmetric distortion of the beam, cross polarization, and beam truncation. This paper describes a computer code implementing higher-order Gaussian beam scattering by multiple reflector systems. There are four essential steps in the algorithm. (1) Compute the current on the first reflector using physical optics using either a feed model or by an incident set of Gaussian beam modes. (2) Find the direction of propagation for the reflected Gaussian beam-set using ray tracing. (3) Determine the waist size and location for the output beam set by examining the amplitude and phase distribution of the current on the reflector. (4) Compute the amplitudes of the individual modes in the output mode set. These steps are then repeated for each addition reflector in the chain. In each of these cases the previous Gaussian beam set provides the input field for the current calculation. Details of the four steps discussed above will be discussed. Examples will compare results from the Gaussian beam approach to pure physical optics, illustrating both its merits and limitations. Hybrid approaches capable of eliminating some of the limitations will also be discussed.

Hoppe, D. J.↗

How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?

Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variability in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. As a result, pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The new Space Shuttle Transportation System (STS) - Problem, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending program

This paper describes the NASA Space Shuttle Trend Analysis program. The four main areas of the program - problem/reliability, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending - are defined, along with motivation for these areas, the statistical methods used, and illustrative Space Shuttle applications. Also described is the NASA Safety, Reliability, Maintainability and Quality Assurance (SRM&QA) Management Information Center, used to focus management attention on key near-term launch concerns and long-range mission trend issues. Finally, the computer data bases used to support the program and future program enhancements are discussed.

Crawford, J. L.↗

A Comparative Evaluation of Additive Manufactured Stainless Steel Test Pieces

Stainless steel is used for variety of applications with different grades, alloys, filaments and powders. Additive manufacturing (AM) enables unique design features and refined microstructures. Performance testing on AM parts are needed as input to modeling and accelerated qualification processes. The objective of this work is to determine the effect of surface roughness on corrosion rate for from different manufacturers Preliminary evaluation shows that the 500-hour data set was scattered, and trend analysis are complex, while the 1000h and 1500h test results evaluation show more distinct trends.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Understanding The Top-Of-Atmosphere Fluxes Difference Between Aerocom Phase III Models And The CERES Product: Clear-Sky Perspective

The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project produces a long-term global climate data record (CDR) that can be used to detect decadal changes in the Earth’s radiation budget (ERB) from the surface to the top-of-atmosphere (TOA). The CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) product includes monthly mean shortwave (SW), longwave (LW), and net TOA all-sky and clear-sky radiative fluxes over 1-degree latitude by 1-degree longitude regions. The EBAF SW and LW fluxes are adjusted within their uncertainties to be consistent with the heat storage in the Earth-atmosphere system (Johnson et al. 2016). EBAF also provides a gap-free monthly mean clear-sky flux map by inferring clear-sky fluxes from both CERES and MODIS measurements (Loeb et al. 2018). In this study, we compare the TOA clear-sky fluxes from Aerocom phase III output with those from the CERES EBAF products. Flux differences over the ocean are generally smaller than over the land, and the magnitude of the differences shows seasonal and regional dependency. To understand the flux differences, aerosol optical depths (AOD) from the Aerocom models are compared with the satellite retrievals from MODIS and MISR. Over the ocean, the AOD differences and the flux differences show consistent regional features, indicating that the differences between models and observations are robust as the CERES EBAF clear-sky SW fluxes and MODIS/MISR AODs are determined independently. However, very little resemblance is found between the AOD and flux differences over the land. To further understand the cause of the flux differences over the land, we compare the land surface albedo from MODIS with the albedo from the models and find consistency in regional albedo differences and flux differences. Monthly regional radiative kernels of AOD and surface albedo derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data (Thorsen et al. 2020) are applied to AOD and surface albedo differences between models and observations. For most of the models, the AOD and surface albedo differences can explain most of the flux differences between models and CERES EBAF. The EOS era satellites have provided 20 years of carefully calibrated and validated observations that are suitable for trend analysis. Both the MODIS AOD and CERES EBAF clear-sky SW flux show decreasing trends over the coastal regions of eastern China and the eastern United States due to the emission control policies enforced in both countries, and an increasing trend off the coast of India. The AOD and clear-sky SW flux trends are less consistent over land, as the surface albedo changes complicate the clear-sky SW flux trend. The AOD and clear-sky SW flux trends from the Oslo model HIST run are also examined. However, none of the aforementioned regional trends are found in the model results.

Wenying Su↗

Linear Subpixel Learning Algorithm for Land Cover Classification from WELD using High Performance Computing

In this work, we use a Fully Constrained Least Squares Subpixel Learning Algorithm to unmix global WELD (Web Enabled Landsat Data) to obtain fractions or abundances of substrate (S), vegetation (V) and dark objects (D) classes. Because of the sheer nature of data and compute needs, we leveraged the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) high performance computing architecture to optimize and scale our algorithm for large-scale processing. Subsequently, the S-V-D abundance maps were characterized into 4 classes namely, forest, farmland, water and urban areas (with NPP-VIIRS-national polar orbiting partnership visible infrared imaging radiometer suite nighttime lights data) over California, USA using Random Forest classifier. Validation of these land cover maps with NLCD (National Land Cover Database) 2011 products and NAFD (North American Forest Dynamics) static forest cover maps showed that an overall classification accuracy of over 91 percent was achieved, which is a 6 percent improvement in unmixing based classification relative to per-pixel-based classification. As such, abundance maps continue to offer an useful alternative to high-spatial resolution data derived classification maps for forest inventory analysis, multi-class mapping for eco-climatic models and applications, fast multi-temporal trend analysis and for societal and policy-relevant applications needed at the watershed scale.

Subpixel↗

Historical trends and extremes in boreal Alaska river basins

Climate change will shift the frequency, intensity, duration and persistence of extreme hydroclimate events and have particularly disastrous consequences in vulnerable systems such as the warm permafrost-dominated Interior region of boreal Alaska. This work focuses on recent research results from nonparametric trends and nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analyses at eight Interior Alaskan river basins for the past 50/60 years (1954/64–2013). Trends analysis of maximum and minimum streamflow indicates a strong (>+50%) and statistically significant increase in 11-day flow events during the late fall/winter and during the snowmelt period (late April/mid-May), followed by a significant decrease in the 11-day flow events during the post-snowmelt period (late May and into the summer). The April–May–June seasonal trends show significant decreases in maximum streamflow for snowmelt dominated systems (<–50%) and glacially influenced basins (–24% to –33%). Annual maximum streamflow trends indicate that most systems are experiencing declines, while minimum flow trends are largely increasing. Nonstationary GEV analysis identifies time-dependent changes in the distribution of spring extremes for snowmelt dominated and glacially dominated systems. Temperature in spring influences the glacial and high elevation snowmelt systems and winter precipitation drives changes in the snowmelt dominated basins. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was associated with changes occurring in snowmelt dominated systems, and the Arctic Oscillation was linked to one lake dominated basin, with half of the basins exhibiting no change in response to climate variability. The paper indicates that broad scale studies examining trend and direction of change should employ multiple methods across various scales and consider regime dependent shifts to identify and understand changes in extreme streamflow within boreal forested watersheds of Alaska.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Atmospheric Trace Constituents from High Resolution Infrared Balloon-Borne and Ground-Based Solar Absorption Spectra

Recent results and ongoing studies of high resolution solar absorption spectra will be presented. The analysis of these spectra is aimed at the identification and quantification of trace constituents important in atmospheric chemistry of the stratosphere and upper troposphere. Analysis of balloon-borne and ground-based spectra obtained at 0.0025/ cm covering the 700-2200/ cm interval will be presented. Results from ground-based 0.02/ cm solar spectra, from several locations such as Denver, South Pole, M. Loa, and New Zealand will also be shown. The 0.0025/ cm spectra show many new spectroscopic features. The analysis of these spectra, along with corresponding laboratory spectra, improves the spectral line parameters, and thus the accuracy of trace constituents quantification. The combination of the recent balloon flights, with earlier flights data since 1978 at 0.02/ cm resolution, provides trends analysis of several stratospheric trace species. Results for COF2, F22, SF6, and other species will be presented. Analysis of several ground-based solar spectra provides trends for HCl, HF and other species. The retrieval methods used for total column density and altitude distribution for both ground-based and balloon-borne spectra will be presented. These are extended for the analysis of the ground-based spectra to be obtained by the high resolution interferometers of the Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC). Progress or the University of Denver studies for the NDSC will be presented. This will include intercomparison of solar spectra and trace gases retrievals obtained from simultaneous scans by the high resolution (0.0025/ cm) interferometers of BRUKER and BOMEM.

Goldman, A.↗

A multi-data set comparison of the vertical structure of temperature variability and change over the Arctic during the past 100 years

We compare the daily, interannual, and decadal variability and trends in the thermal structure of the Arctic troposphere using eight observation-based, vertically resolved data sets, four of which have data prior to 1948. Comparisons on the daily scale between historical reanalysis data and historical upper-air observations were performed for Svalbard for the cold winters 1911/1912 and 1988/1989, the warm winters 1944/1945 and 2005/2006, and the International Geophysical Year 1957/1958. Excellent agreement is found at mid-tropospheric levels. Near the ground and at the tropopause level, however, systematic differences are identified. On the interannual time scale, the correlations between all data sets are high, but there are systematic biases in terms of absolute values as well as discrepancies in the magnitude of the variability. The causes of these differences are discussed. While none of the data sets individually may be suitable for trend analysis, consistent features can be identified from analyzing all data sets together. To illustrate this, we examine trends and 20-year averages for those regions and seasons that exhibit large sea-ice changes and have enough data for comparison. In the summertime Pacific Arctic and the autumn eastern Canadian Arctic, the lower tropospheric temperature anomalies for the recent two decades are higher than in any previous 20-year period. In contrast, mid-tropospheric temperatures of the European Arctic in the wintertime of the 1920s and 1930s may have reached values as high as those of the late 20th and early 21st centuries.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

An Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Relationship between Satellite-Based Land Surface Temperature and Station-Based Near-Surface Air Temperature over Brazil

A better understanding of the relationship between land surface temperature (Ts) and near-surface air temperature (Ta) is crucial for improving the simulation accuracy of climate models, developing retrieval schemes for soil and vegetation moisture, and estimating large-scale Ta from satellite-based Ts observations. In this study, we investigated the relationship between multiple satellite-based Ts products, derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Aqua satellite, and Ta from 204 meteorological stations over Brazil during 2003–2016. Monthly satellite-based Ts products used in this study include: (1) AIRS Version 6 with 1° spatial resolution, (2) AIRS Version 7 with 1° spatial resolution, (3) MODIS Collection 6 with 0.05° spatial resolution, and (4) MODIS Collection 6 with 1° spatial resolution re-sampled from (3) for a direct comparison with AIRS products. We found that satellite-based Ts is lower than Ta over the forest area, but higher than Ta over the non-forest area. Nevertheless, the correlation coefficients (R) between monthly Ta and four Ts products during 2003–2016 are greater than 0.8 over most stations. The long-term trend analysis shows a general warming trend in temperatures, particularly over the central and eastern parts of Brazil. The satellite products could also observe the increasing Ts over the deforestation region. Furthermore, we examined the temperature anomalies during three drought events in the dry season of 2005, 2010, and 2015. All products show similar spatio-temporal patterns, with positive temperature anomalies expanding in areal coverage and magnitude from the 2005 to 2015 event. The above results show that satellite-based Ts is sensitive in reflecting environmental changes such as deforestation and extreme climatic events, and can be used as an alternative to Ta for climatological studies. Moreover, the observed differences between Ts and Ta may inform how thermal assumptions can be improved in satellite-based retrievals of soil and vegetation moisture or evapotranspiration.

land surface temperature↗

Dataset of timberland variables used to assess forest conditions in two Southeastern United States' fuelsheds

The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled “How is wood-based pellet production affecting forest conditions in the southeastern United States?” (Dale et al., 2017). This article describes how United States Forest Service (USFS) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from multiple state inventories were aggregated and used to extract ten annual timberland variables for trend analysis in two case study bioenergy fuelshed areas. This dataset is made publically available to enable critical or extended analyses of changes in forest conditions, either for the fuelshed areas supplying the ports of Savannah, Georgia and Chesapeake, Virginia, or for other southeastern US forested areas contributing biomass to the export wood pellet industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

When Will MISR Detect Rising High Clouds?

It is predicted by both theory and models that high-altitude clouds will occur higher in the atmosphere as a result of climate warming. This produces a positive longwave feedback and has a substantial impact on the Earth's response to warming. This effect is well established by theory, but is poorly constrained by observations, and there is large spread in the feedback strength between climate models. For this study, we use the NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) to examine changes in Cloud-Top-Height (CTH). MISR uses a stereo-imaging technique to determine CTH. This approach is geometric in nature and insensitive to instrument calibration and therefore is well suited for trend analysis and studies of variability on long time scales. In this article we show that the current MISR record does have an increase in CTH for high-altitude cloud over Southern Hemisphere (SH) oceans but not over Tropical or the Northern Hemisphere (NH) oceans. We use climate model simulations to estimate when MISR might be expected to detect trends in CTH, that include the NH. The analysis suggests that according to the models used in this study MISR should detect changes over the SH ocean earlier than the NH, and if the model predictions are correct should be capable of detecting a trend over the Tropics and NH very soon (3–10 years). This result highlights the potential value of a follow-on mission to MISR, which no longer maintains a fixed equator crossing time and is unlikely to be making observations for another 10 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗

The Magnitude and Variability of Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 1999 the northern mid-latitudes appear to be drying, the southern mid-latitudes have gotten wetter, and there is a mixed signal in the tropics. The relation between this field of trends and the relation to the frequency of El Nino events during this time period is explored. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. These El Nino minus La Nina composites of normalized precipitation show the usual positive, or wet, anomaly over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean with the negative, or dry, anomaly over the maritime continent along with an additional negative anomaly over Brazil and the Atlantic Ocean extending into Africa and a positive anomaly over the Horn of Africa and the western Indian Ocean. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern US and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. The N.H. counterpart crosses the North Pacific and southern Canada. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗

Space Station Freedom Environmental Health Care Program

The paper discusses the environmental planning and monitoring aspects of the Space Station Freedom (SSF) Environmental Health Care Program, which encompasses all phases of the SSF assembly and operation from the first element entry at MB-6 through the Permanent Manned Capability and beyond. Environmental planning involves the definition of acceptability limits and monitoring requirements for the radiation dose barothermal parameters and potential contaminants in the SSF air and water and on internal surfaces. Inflight monitoring will be implemented through the Environmental Health System, which consists of five subsystems: Microbiology, Toxicology, Water Quality, Radiation, and Barothermal Physiology. In addition to the environmental data interpretation and analysis conducted after each mission, the new data will be compared to archived data for statistical and long-term trend analysis and determination of risk exposures. Results of these analyses will be used to modify the acceptability limits and monitoring requirements for the future.

Richard, Elizabeth E.↗

Multilevel semantic analysis and problem-solving in the flight domain

A computer based cockpit system which is capable of assisting the pilot in such important tasks as monitoring, diagnosis, and trend analysis was developed. The system is properly organized and is endowed with a knowledge base so that it enhances the pilot's control over the aircraft while simultaneously reducing his workload.

Chien, R. T.↗

Bearing tester data compilation, analysis, and reporting and bearing math modeling

A test condition data base was developed for the Bearing and Seal Materials Tester (BSMT) program which permits rapid retrieval of test data for trend analysis and evaluation. A model was developed for the Space shuttle Main Engine (SSME) Liquid Oxygen (LOX) turbopump shaft/bearing system. The model was used to perform parametric analyses to determine the sensitivity of bearing operating characteristics and temperatures to variations in: axial preload, contact friction, coolant flow and subcooling, heat transfer coefficients, outer race misalignments, and outer race to isolator clearances. The bearing program ADORE (Advanced Dynamics of Rolling Elements) was installed on the UNIVAC 1100/80 computer system and is operational. ADORE is an advanced FORTRAN computer program for the real time simulation of the dynamic performance of rolling bearings. A model of the 57 mm turbine-end bearing is currently being checked out. Analyses were conducted to estimate flow work energy for several flow diverter configurations and coolant flow rates for the LOX BSMT.

Source record↗

Semantic Annotation of Complex Text Structures in Problem Reports

Text analysis is important for effective information retrieval from databases where the critical information is embedded in text fields. Aerospace safety depends on effective retrieval of relevant and related problem reports for the purpose of trend analysis. The complex text syntax in problem descriptions has limited statistical text mining of problem reports. The presentation describes an intelligent tagging approach that applies syntactic and then semantic analysis to overcome this problem. The tags identify types of problems and equipment that are embedded in the text descriptions. The power of these tags is illustrated in a faceted searching and browsing interface for problem report trending that combines automatically generated tags with database code fields and temporal information.

Malin, Jane T.↗