Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “time-series modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

Spatial and temporal metagenomics of river compartments reveals viral community dynamics in an urban impacted stream

Although river ecosystems constitute a small fraction of Earth’s total area, they are critical modulators of microbially and virally orchestrated global biogeochemical cycles. However, most studies either use data that is not spatially resolved or is collected at timepoints that do not reflect the short life cycles of microorganisms. To address this gap, we assessed how viral and microbial communities change over a 48-hour period by sampling surface water and pore water compartments of the wastewater-impacted River Erpe in Germany. We sampled every 3 hours resulting in 32 samples for which we obtained metagenomes along with geochemical and metabolite measurements. From our metagenomes, we identified 6,500 viral and 1,033 microbial metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) and found distinct community membership and abundance associated with each river compartment (e.g., Competibacteraceae in surfacewater and Sulfurimonadaceae in pore water). We show that 17% of our viral MAGs clustered to viruses from other ecosystems like wastewater treatment plants and rivers. Our results also indicated that 70% of the viral community was persistent in surface waters, whereas only 13% were persistent in the pore waters taken from the hyporheic zone. Finally, we predicted linkages between 73 viral genomes and 38 microbial genomes. These putatively linked hosts included members of the Competibacteraceae, which we suggest are potential contributors to river carbon and nitrogen cycling via denitrification and nitrogen fixation. Together, these findings demonstrate that members of the surface water microbiome from this urban river are stable over multiple diurnal cycles. These temporal insights raise important considerations for ecosystem models attempting to constrain dynamics of river biogeochemical cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Host Galaxy Photometric Redshifts to Improve Cosmological Constraints with Type Ia Supernovae in the LSST Era

We perform a rigorous cosmology analysis on simulated Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and evaluate the improvement from including photometric host galaxy redshifts compared to using only the "z spec " subset with spectroscopic redshifts from the host or SN. We use the Deep Drilling Fields (~50 deg 2 ) from the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC) in combination with a low-z sample based on Data Challenge2. The analysis includes light-curve fitting to standardize the SN brightness, a high-statistics simulation to obtain a bias-corrected Hubble diagram, a statistical+systematics covariance matrix including calibration and photo-z uncertainties, and cosmology fitting with a prior from the cosmic microwave background. Compared to using the z spec subset, including events with SN+host photo-z results in (i) more precise distances for z > 0.5, (ii) a Hubble diagram that extends 0.3 further in redshift, and (iii) a 50% increase in the Dark Energy Task Force figure of merit (FoM) based on the w 0 w a CDM model. Analyzing 25 simulated data samples, the average bias on w 0 and w a is consistent with zero. The host photo-z systematic of 0.01 reduces FoM by only 2% because (i) most z < 0.5 events are in the z spec subset, (ii) the combined SN+host photo-z has ×2 smaller bias, and (iii) the anticorrelation between fitted redshift and color self-corrects distance errors. To prepare for analyzing real data, the next SN Ia cosmology analysis with photo-zs should include non–SN Ia contamination and host galaxy misassociations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

AI-Enabled Operations at Fermi Complex: Multivariate Time Series Prediction for Outage Prediction and Diagnosis

The Main Control Room of the Fermilab accelerator complex continuously gathers extensive time-series data from thousands of sensors monitoring the beam. However, unplanned events such as trips or voltage fluctuations often result in beam outages, causing operational downtime. This downtime not only consumes operator effort in diagnosing and addressing the issue but also leads to unnecessary energy consumption by idle machines awaiting beam restoration. The current threshold-based alarm system is reactive and faces challenges including frequent false alarms and inconsistent outage-cause labeling. To address these limitations, we propose an AI-enabled framework that leverages predictive analytics and automated labeling. Using data from $2,703$ Linac devices and $80$ operator-labeled outages, we evaluate state-of-the-art deep learning architectures, including recurrent, attention-based, and linear models, for beam outage prediction. Additionally, we assess a Random Forest-based labeling system for providing consistent, confidence-scored outage annotations. Our findings highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these architectures for beam outage prediction and identify critical gaps that must be addressed to fully harness AI for transitioning downtime handling from reactive to predictive, ultimately reducing downtime and improving decision-making in accelerator management.

Jain, Milan [PNL, Richland] (ORCID:000000021676111↗

Design, Detection, and Countermeasure of Frequency Spectrum Attack and Its Impact on Long Short-Term Memory Load Forecasting and Microgrid Energy Management

This paper introduces a frequency-domain false data injection attack called Frequency Spectrum Attack (FSA) and explores its effects on load forecasting and the energy management system (EMS) in a microgrid. The FSA analyzes time-series signals in the frequency domain to identify patterns in their frequency spectrum. It learns the distribution of dominant frequencies in a dataset of healthy signals. Subsequently, it manipulates the amplitudes of dominant frequencies within this healthy distribution, ensuring a stealthy attack against statistical analysis of the signal spectrum. We evaluated the performance of FSA on LSTM, a state-of-the-art network for load forecasting. The results show that FSA can triple the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of predictions compared to the normal case and increase it by 70% compared to noise injection attacks. Furthermore, FSA indirectly enhances battery utilization in the EMS by 45%. We then proposed a detection method that combines statistical analysis and machine-learning-based classification techniques with features. The model effectively distinguishes FSA from healthy and noisy signals, achieving an accuracy of 98.7% and an F1-score of 98.1% on a load dataset, covering healthy, FSA, and noisy load data. Finally, a countermeasure was introduced based on the statistical analysis of the frequency spectrum of healthy signals to mitigate the impact of FSA. This countermeasure successfully reduces the MAE of the attacked model from 0.135 to 0.053, validating its effectiveness in mitigating FSA.

Nazeri, Amirhossein↗

Comprehensive Cradle to Grave Life Cycle Analysis of On-Road Vehicles in the United States based on GREET

To properly compare and contrast the environmental performance of one vehicle technology against another, it is necessary to consider their production, operation, and end-of-life fates. Since 1995, Argonne’s GREET® life cycle analysis model (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) has been annually updated to model and refine the latest developments in fuels and materials production, as well as vehicle operational and composition characteristics. Updated cradle-to-grave life cycle analysis results from the model’s latest release are described for a wide variety of fuel and powertrain options for U.S. light-duty and medium/heavy-duty vehicles. Light-duty vehicles include a passenger car, sports utility vehicle (SUV), and pick-up truck, while medium/heavy-duty vehicles include a Class 6 pickup-and-delivery truck, Class 8 day-cab (regional) truck, and Class 8 sleeper-cab (long-haul) truck. Powertrain coverage includes internal combustion (spark ignition and compression ignition) engines, hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid, full battery electric, and fuel cell vehicles powered by conventional and low carbon energy sources. The results offer insights into the current state of these technologies, as well as a projection of the likely environmental implications of future fuel and vehicle advancements through a time-series evaluation of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions.

Kelly, Jarod C.↗

Experimental determinations of carbon and hydrogen isotope fractionations and methane clumped isotope compositions associated with ethane pyrolysis from 550 to 600°C

Methane clumped isotope compositions signify the relative natural abundances of rare, doubly substituted isotopic species of methane ( 13 CH 3 D and 12 CH 2 D 2 ) and have emerged as a new isotopic tool to trace the sources, sinks, and lifecycles of methane in the environment. Such measurements can identify equilibration (or reequilibration) temperatures if found to be in isotopic equilibrium or non-equilibrium processes (e.g., kinetically controlled reactions or mixing) if not in isotopic equilibrium. Naturally occurring thermogenic methane—formed by the thermally activated breakdown of larger organic molecules—has been found to have clumped isotope compositions consistent with equilibrium at reasonable gas formation temperatures in some settings and non-equilibrium processes occurring during either formation, migration, storage, or extraction in others. To explore the potential controls on the isotopic composition of thermogenic methane, we conducted isothermal time-series ethane pyrolysis experiments at 550 and 600 °C to measure methane and ethane 13 C/ 12 C and D/H fractionations and methane clumped isotope compositions (resolved 13 CH 3 D and 12 CH 2 D 2 ). We explore the effects of modifying the initial clumped isotope composition of ethane and the addition of water vapor to pyrolysis experiments. We observe that ethane and methane 13 C/ 12 C are controlled by kinetic isotope effects and Rayleigh distillation processes. In contrast, ethane and methane D/H and methane clumped isotope compositions appear to be controlled by a combination of these processes and hydrogen isotope exchange. The hydrogen isotope exchange processes lead to isotopic equilibrium as reaction completion is approached for both D/H (ethane/methane) and methane clumped isotope compositions. Here, we develop a chemical model based on a mass balance approach that accounts for inheritance vs. hydrogen-abstraction formation pathways for singly and doubly substituted isotopologues of ethane and methane that is compared to the experimental data. The model allows the determination of carbon and hydrogen kinetic isotope effects associated with ethane cracking and hydrogen abstraction reactions that, where applicable, we compare to prior theoretical constraints. From the comparison of the model to the experimental data, we infer that the kinetically controlled ethane and methane bulk isotope compositions and methane clumped isotope compositions are controlled by kinetic isotope effects (both primary and secondary) associated with both C–C bond and C–H bond cleavage reactions. Specifically, the methane clumped isotope compositions likely result from a combination of clumped isotope effects associated with ethane breakdown and/or assembly of methane isotopologues (expressed in terms of γ-factor parameters ≠ 1) and combinatorial effects that arise probabilistically. We discuss our experimental results in the context of recent pyrolysis experiments and observations of naturally occurring thermogenic methane. We consider a proposal consistent with observations from nature that the hydrogen isotope exchange reactions that promote equilibration of methane isotopic molecules at or near formation temperature may be facilitated by free radicals generated by pyrolysis reactions. In this framework, isotope exchange effectively ceases when pyrolysis effectively ceases locking in compositions that can be consistent with peak formation temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for accurate epidemic forecasting to predict pathogen spread, evolution, and evaluate intervention strategies. Forecast reliability hinges on detailed knowledge of disease transmission across population segments, which may be inferred from contact surveys or mobility data. However, these indirect approaches make it difficult to estimate rare transmissions between socially or geographically distant communities. We show that the steep ramp-up of genome sequencing surveillance during the pandemic can be leveraged to directly identify transmission patterns between geographically defined communities. Our approach uses a hidden Markov model to infer the fraction of infections a community imports from others based on how rapidly allele frequencies in the focal community converge to those in the donor communities. Applying this method to SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data from England and the United States, we uncover networks of intercommunity transmission that reflect geographical relationships while exposing significant long-range interactions. The scaling of importation rate with distance is consistent across both countries, yet weaker than expected based on mobility data, highlighting limitations of indirect inference. We show that transmission patterns can change between waves of variants of concern and analyze how the inferred heterogeneity in intercommunity transmission impacts evolutionary forecasts. While applied here to geographically defined communities, our approach could be applied to those defined by other traits (e.g., age, socioeconomic status), provided time-series data can be stratified accordingly. Overall, our study highlights population genomic time series data as a crucial record of epidemiological interactions, which can be deciphered using tree-free inference methods.

Okada, Takashi [Department of Physics; University ↗

Profiles of Radiative Fluxes at ENA

Profiles of radiative fluxes observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory along with the ancillary measurements are reported. The below-cloud drizzle properties were derived by combining the data from the ceilometer and Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) following the technique explained by Ghate et al. (2021 JAMC). The cloud and drizzle water path values were derived from the brightness temperatures reported by the microwave radiometer following the technique of Cadeddu et al. (2020 AMT). The cloud water path was then scaled to the KAZR-reported radar reflectivity to calculate profiles of liquid water content (LWC). Following the analysis from Ghate et al. (2023 JGR), cloud droplet effective radius was calculated using the number concentration value of 100 cm-3. The cloud properties, along with the thermodynamic properties, served as an input to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) to yield profiles of radiative fluxes at a 1-minute temporal and 50-m vertical resolution. The fluxes were then averaged to hourly temporal resolution for analysis. In Mitra et al. (2025 JClim), the calculated profiles were compared against those derived from the satellite measurements (SYN1deg). Flux profiles from the SYN1deg and the thermodynamic and cloud properties used for deriving them are also reported here. Both all-sky and clear-sky radiative flux profiles were calculated. Due to the large data volume, the surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes for the six-year period, and the hourly profiles of the radiative fluxes for January 2018, are submitted here. Full profiles of radiative fluxes calculated from the thermodynamic and cloud properties measured at the ENA site at 1-minute temporal and 50-m vertical resolution for a six-year period are available from the authors. Six files here correspond to the following data: 1_ENARAD_CERES_with_cld_amount_timeseries.nc: Time-series of hourly values of RRTM-simulated values of upwelling and downwelling fluxes at the surface and TOA, observed boundary-layer cloud fractions, and upwelling and downwelling fluxes from the SYN1deg from July 2015 to January 2022. 2_CERES_2018_at_CERES_levels.nc: SYN1deg radiative fluxes at six levels for the year 2018. 3_ENARad_2018_at_CERES_levels.nc: RRTM calculated fluxes at the SYN1deg vertical levels for the year 2018. 4_ENARad_rrtminputs_hourly_201801.nc: Thermodynamic and cloud properties used as an input to the RRTM for January 2018. 5_CERES_inputs_hourly_201801.nc: Thermodynamic and cloud properties utilized by SYN1deg algorithm for January 2018. 6_ENARAD_hourly_201801.nc: Full profiles of hourly averaged radiative fluxes from the RRTM simulations for January 2018.

Atmosphere↗

Results from a multi-laboratory ocean metaproteomic intercomparison: effects of LC-MS acquisition and data analysis procedures

Metaproteomics is an increasingly popular methodology that provides information regarding the metabolic functions of specific microbial taxa and has potential for contributing to ocean ecology and biogeochemical studies. A blinded multi-laboratory intercomparison was conducted to assess comparability and reproducibility of taxonomic and functional results and their sensitivity to methodological variables. Euphotic zone samples from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) in the North Atlantic Ocean collected by in situ pumps and the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) Clio were distributed with a paired metagenome, and one-dimensional (1D) liquid chromatographic data-dependent acquisition mass spectrometry analysis was stipulated. Analysis of mass spectra from seven laboratories through a common bioinformatic pipeline identified a shared set of 1056 proteins from 1395 shared peptide constituents. Quantitative analyses showed good reproducibility: pairwise regressions of spectral counts between laboratories yielded R 2 values averaged 0.62±0.11, and a Sørensen similarity analysis of the top 1000 proteins revealed 70 %–80 % similarity between laboratory groups. Taxonomic and functional assignments showed good coherence between technical replicates and different laboratories. A bioinformatic intercomparison study, involving 10 laboratories using eight software packages, successfully identified thousands of peptides within the complex metaproteomic datasets, demonstrating the utility of these software tools for ocean metaproteomic research. Lessons learned and potential improvements in methods were described. Future efforts could examine reproducibility in deeper metaproteomes, examine accuracy in targeted absolute quantitation analyses, and develop standards for data output formats to improve data interoperability. Together, these results demonstrate the reproducibility of metaproteomic analyses and their suitability for microbial oceanography research, including integration into global-scale ocean surveys and ocean biogeochemical models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial Study 2022: Surface Water Samples, Cotton Strip Degradation, and Hydrologic Sensor Data across the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA (v3)

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of spatial variability in sediment respiration rates in the Yakima River Basin. The dataset provides data and photos generated from sample collection during the same one-week period at 48 sites within multiple rivers throughout the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA. The contents include surface water geochemistry data; river substrate grain size photos; stream depth data; manual chamber open channel respiration data; and field metadata (including qualitative information on instream and river corridor characteristics). Grain size photos can be used to improve estimates of channel substrate D50 data. The dataset also includes tensile strength and photos from cotton strip field degradation experiments; five-week sensor time series temperature, dissolved oxygen, pressure, pH, specific conductance, chlorophyll A, and turbidity data; plots of the sensor data; and R scripts used to generate the plots. Samples collected during this study were labeled as “Second Spatial Study” or “SSS.” A subset of data from the SSS samples were published in the contiguous United States (CONUS)-Scale Model-Sample (CM) study data package available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1923689 that presents data from across the CONUS. SSS data published in the CM data package were not included in this data package. They include dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC), total nitrogen (TN), grain size, aerobic sediment respiration, dissolved oxygen (DO), and temperature. Parent IDs and Site IDs are consistent between the SSS and CM data packages, and they can be mapped directly so data across packages can be used together. Additionally, sensor data from a similar 2021 spatial study can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1892052 and 2021 sample data can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1898914. The 2021 spatial study had some sites in common with this 2022 spatial study. This dataset is comprised of three photo folders and one main data folder with six subfolders. The photo folders contain photographs and videos of cotton strip retrieval and sediment quadrats. The main data folder consists of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) total suspended solids (TSS) data and cotton strip tensile strength data and averages; (5) field protocol; (6) readme; (7) methods codes; (8) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; (9) sensor installation methods summary; (10) stream depth and averages; and (11) Ultrameter data and averages. The Sonar subfolder consists of Sonar time-series depth data and a processing script. The BarotrollAtm, DepthHOBO, MantaRiver, miniDOT, and miniDOTManualChamber subfolders contain time-series data, plots, and summary files. All files are .csv, .pdf, .txt, .R, .Rmd, .jpg, .jpeg, .AVI, .mp4, or .mov. The data package was originally published in April 2023. It was updated in August 2023 (v2; modified files) and September 2024 (v3; modified files). See the change history section in the readme for details. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation-induced asymmetric diurnal land surface temperatures changes across global climate zones

Unprecedented global vegetation greening during past decades is well known to affect annual and seasonal land surface temperatures (LST). However, the impact of observed vegetation cover change on diurnal LST across global climatic zones is not well understood. In this study, using global climatic time-series datasets, we investigated the long-term growing season daytime and nighttime LST changes globally and explored associated dominant contributors including vegetation and climate factors including air temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. Results revealed asymmetric growing season mean daytime and nighttime LST warming (0.16 °C/10a and 0.30 °C/10a, respectively) globally from 2003 to 2020, as a result, the diurnal LST range (DLSTR) declined at 0.14 °C/10a. The sensitivity analysis indicated the LST response to changes in LAI, precipitation, and SSRD mainly concentrated during daytime instead of nighttime, however, which showed comparable sensitivities for air temperature. Combining the sensitivities results and the observed LAI and climate trends, we found rising air temperature contributes to 0.24 ± 0.11 °C/10a global daytime LST warming and 0.16 ± 0.07 °C/10a nighttime LST warming, turns to be the dominant contributor to the LST changes. Increased LAI cooled global daytime LST (–0.068 ± 0.096 °C/10a) while warmed nighttime LST (0.064 ± 0.046 °C/10a); hence LAI dominates declines in DLSTR trends (–0.12 ± 0.08 °C/10a), despite some daynight process variations across climate zones. In Boreal regions, reduced DLSTR was due to nighttime warming from LAI increases. In other climatic zones, daytime cooling, and DLSTR decline, was induced by increased LAI. Biophysically, the pathway from air temperature heats the surface through sensible heat and increased downward longwave radiation during day and night, while the pathway from LAI cools the surface by enhancing energy redistribution into latent heat rather than sensible heat during the daytime. These empirical findings of diverse asymmetric responses could help calibrate and improve biophysical models of diurnal surface temperature feedback in response to vegetation cover changes in different climate zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep neural operators can predict the real-time response of floating offshore structures under irregular waves

The use of neural operators in a digital twin model of an offshore floating structure holds the potential for a significant shift in the prediction of structural responses and health monitoring, offering valuable real-time control insights. In this work, we investigate the effectiveness of three neural operators, namely the deep operator network (DeepONet), the Fourier neural operator (FNO), and the Wavelet neural operator (WNO), to accurately capture the responses of a floating structure under six different sea state codes (3 − 8) based on the wave characteristics described by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). To further enhance the accuracy of the vanilla architecture of the neural operators, novel extensions, such as wavelet-DeepONet and self-adaptive WNO, are proposed in this paper. The results demonstrate that these high-precision neural operators can deliver structural responses more efficiently, up to two orders of magnitude faster than a dynamic analysis using conventional numerical solvers. Additionally, compared to gated recurrent units (GRUs), a commonly used recurrent neural network for time-series estimation, neural operators are both more accurate and efficient, especially in situations with limited data availability. Taken together, our study shows that FNO outperforms all other operators for approximating the mapping of one input functional space to the output space as well as for responses that have small bandwidth of the frequency spectrum. Conversely, DeepONet, with historical states, proves most accurate in learning the mapping of multiple input functions to the output space and capturing responses within a broad frequency spectrum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

National forest timber bids and export price interlinkages in the USA: The bounds testing approach

We examine the interrelationships of national forest timber bid and log export prices for Douglas-fir (Region 6) in 2003–2021 and loblolly pine (Region 8) using time-series stationarity and bounds-testing approaches. The analysis shows the difference in time series properties across different geographies and time scales. Bid prices for these dominant species of timber in each of two Forest Service regions are found to be stationary, while log export prices for those same species appear to be non-stationary. Bounds testing conducted with autoregressive distributed lag modeling methods provides strong evidence for a cointegrating relationship between timber bid prices and log export prices in Forest Service Region 6. In Region 8, evidence for a cointegrating relationship was weak. Here, the share of salvage wood in national forest timber sales is a statistically significant control variable in all models estimated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diminishing marginal effect in estimating the dissolved organic carbon export from a watershed

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) can be initially moved from soils to inland waters with surface runoff, and then mineralized, buried, or eventually delivered to the coastal ocean. This land-to-ocean phase of the DOC flux must be accounted for to comprehensively understand the global carbon cycle. To estimate the terrestrial-aquatic DOC leaching, calculating the product of the riverine DOC concentration and the corresponding river discharge measured at the watershed outlet is a common method. However, it is challenging to frequently and exactly record riverine DOC concentrations, thus the relationship between DOC concentrations and discharges (C-Q relationship) are established and used to interpolate the time-series of DOC concentrations. We found that the widely used time-dependent and time-independent C-Q regression models are weak in representing their altered relationship when the discharge is extremely high, which was named as diminishing marginal effect. In this study, we evaluated the performance of two C-Q regression models and discussed possible reasons for the diminishing marginal effect. We suggest that repeated and long-term measurements of the DOC concentration are required to adequately analyze their relationships, especially during the early spring and seasons with heavy precipitations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Attribute-Aware RBFs: Interactive Visualization of Time Series Particle Volumes Using RT Core Range Queries

Smoothed-particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is a mesh-free method used to simulate volumetric media in fluids, astrophysics, and solid mechanics. Visualizing these simulations is problematic because these datasets often contain millions, if not billions of particles carrying physical attributes and moving over time. Radial basis functions (RBFs) are used to model particles, and overlapping particles are interpolated to reconstruct a high-quality volumetric field; however, this interpolation process is expensive and makes interactive visualization difficult. Existing RBF interpolation schemes do not account for color-mapped attributes and are instead constrained to visualizing just the density field. To address these challenges, we exploit ray tracing cores in modern GPU architectures to accelerate scalar field reconstruction. We use a novel RBF interpolation scheme to integrate per-particle colors and densities, and leverage GPU-parallel tree construction and refitting to quickly update the tree as the simulation animates over time or when the user manipulates particle radii. We also propose a Hilbert reordering scheme to cluster particles together at the leaves of the tree to reduce tree memory consumption. Finally, we reduce the noise of volumetric shadows by adopting a spatially temporal blue noise sampling scheme. Our method can provide a more detailed and interactive view of these large, volumetric, time-series particle datasets than traditional methods, leading to new insights into these physics simulations.

Particle Volumes↗

Bayesian inference of structured latent spaces from neural population activity with the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model

The brain produces diverse functions, from perceiving sounds to producing arm reaches, through the collective activity of populations of many neurons. Determining if and how the features of these exogenous variables (e.g., sound frequency, reach angle) are reflected in population neural activity is important for understanding how the brain operates. Often, high-dimensional neural population activity is confined to low-dimensional latent spaces. However, many current methods fail to extract latent spaces that are clearly structured by exogenous variables. This has contributed to a debate about whether or not brains should be thought of as dynamical systems or representational systems. Here, we developed a new latent process Bayesian regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) which introduces an orthogonality constraint amongst time-varying mixture coefficients, and provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures. We demonstrate superior performance of OSLMM on latent trajectory recovery in synthetic experiments and show superior computational efficiency and prediction performance on several real-world benchmark data sets. We primarily focus on demonstrating the utility of OSLMM in two neural data sets: μ ECoG recordings from rat auditory cortex during presentation of pure tones and multi-single unit recordings form monkey motor cortex during complex arm reaching. We show that OSLMM achieves superior or comparable predictive accuracy of neural data and decoding of external variables (e.g., reach velocity). Most importantly, in both experimental contexts, we demonstrate that OSLMM latent trajectories directly reflect features of the sounds and reaches, demonstrating that neural dynamics are structured by neural representations. Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale biological time-series datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don’t yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗