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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Reliability-Informed Life-Cycle Warranty Cost Analysis: A Case Study on a Transmission in Agricultural Equipment

In agricultural and industrial equipment, both new and remanufactured systems are often available for warranty coverage. In such cases, it may be challenging for equipment manufacturers to properly trade-off between the system reliability and the cost associated with a replacement option (e.g., replace with a new or remanufactured system). To address this problem, we present a reliability-informed life-cycle warranty cost (LCWC) analysis framework that enables equipment manufacturers to evaluate different warranty policies. These warranty policies differ in whether a new or remanufactured system is used for replacement in the case of product failure. The novelty of this LCWC analysis framework lies in its ability to incorporate real-world field reliability data into warranty policy assessment using probabilistic warranty cost models that consider multiple life cycles. First, the reliability functions for the new and remanufactured systems are built as the time-to-failure distributions that provide the best-fit to the field reliability data. Then, these reliability functions and their corresponding warranty policies are used to build the LCWC models according to the specific warranty terms. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate the time-to-failure uncertainty of each system, modeled by its reliability function, through each LCWC model to produce a probability distribution of the LCWC. The effectiveness of the proposed reliability-informed LCWC analysis framework is demonstrated with a real-world case study on a transmission used in some agricultural equipment.

agricultural equipment↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic nonlinear analysis of unidirectional fiber composites using image-based microstructural uncertainty quantification

Here, we present a data-driven nonlinear uncertainty quantification and propagation framework to study the microstructure-induced stochastic performance of unidirectional (UD) carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites. The proposed approach integrates (1) microscopic image characterization, (2) stochastic microstructure reconstruction, and (3) efficient multiscale finite element simulations enabled by self-consistent clustering (SCA) analysis. To model the complex microstructural variability, the proposed UQ methods take the non-Gaussian uncertainty sources into account through a distribution-free sampling approach leveraging nonparametric and asymptotic statistical tools. A hierarchical conditional sampling strategy enables the simultaneous sampling of multiple sources of uncertainties. Our approach provides insights into the impact of microstructural variabilities, which are shown to have an increasing impact on the nonlinear responses of UD CFRP parts under progressive compression loading and ultimately on the failure rate over time. We discover that before CFRP parts start to fail, a characteristic time period emerges with distinctive uncertainty distributions specific to the microstructure variability and the probability of failure. Identifying the failure time period is crucial to the reliability prediction, which is an essential component of CFRP design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1977

Life analysis of restored and refurbished bearings

An analysis of the potential life of refurbished and restored bearings was performed. The sensitivity of 10-percent life and mean-time-between-failure to the effects of cumulative fatigue damage and the amount of stressed volume removed in the restoration process were examined. A modified Lundberg-Palmgren theory was used to predict that the expected 10-percent life of a restored bearing, which is dependent on the previous service time and the volume of material removed from the race surfaces, can be between 74 and 100 percent of the new bearing life. Using renewal theory, it is found that the mean time between failure ranged from 90 to 100 percent of that for a new bearing.

Coy, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Modelling of photodegradation in solar cell modules of substrate and superstrate design made with ethylene-vinyl acetate as pottant material

A computer model which simulates, in principle, the chemical changes in the photooxidation of hydrocarbons using as input data a set of elementary reactions, corresponding kinetic rate data and appropriate initial conditions was developed. The Model was refined and exploited to examine more closely the photooxidation and photostabilization of a hydrocarbon polymer. The results lead to the following observations. (1) The time to failure, tau sub f (chosen as the level of 5% C-H bond oxidation which is within the range anticipated for marked change in mechanical properties) varies as the inverse square root of the light intensity. However, tau sub f is almost unaffected by both the photoinitiator type and concentration. (2) The time to failure decreases with the rate of abstraction of C-H by peroxy radicals but increases with the rate of bimolecular radical termination controlled by diffusion. (3) Of the various stabilization mechanisms considered, the trapping of peroxy radicals is distinctly the most effective, although the concommitant decomposition of hydroperoxide is also desirable.

Somersall, A. C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A survey on degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance in wind energy systems

Wind energy generation proliferated over the past decades, introducing unique challenges and opportunities for failure prediction, operation and maintenance. Decision-makers are continuously looking into new methods to infer failure mechanisms and behaviors of wind turbine components to detect and intervene in the failures before they happen. Evidently, degradation modeling and prognosis become engaging topics for researchers and practitioners to prevent catastrophic failures. Prognostics-driven approaches predict the time of failure for the components (e.g., predicting remaining useful life), which provides significant insights for scheduling of operations and maintenance activities. Integrating these prognostics-driven insights into wind farm operations and maintenance presents a substantial challenge, demanding careful consideration of numerous factors such as accessibility, crew routing, and spare part logistics. This study provides state-of-the-art review for degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance techniques for wind energy systems. The discussed techniques align with the United Nations' sustainable development goals, in particular Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), by enhancing effectiveness and sustainability of wind energy operations. This work also showcases open research questions related to degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance.

Altinpulluk, Nur Banu↗
NASA NTRS2004

Advanced Signal Conditioners for Data-Acquisition Systems

Signal conditioners embodying advanced concepts in analog and digital electronic circuitry and software have been developed for use in data-acquisition systems that are required to be compact and lightweight, to utilize electric energy efficiently, and to operate with high reliability, high accuracy, and high power efficiency, without intervention by human technicians. These signal conditioners were originally intended for use aboard spacecraft. There are also numerous potential terrestrial uses - especially in the fields of aeronautics and medicine, wherein it is necessary to monitor critical functions. Going beyond the usual analog and digital signal-processing functions of prior signal conditioners, the new signal conditioner performs the following additional functions: It continuously diagnoses its own electronic circuitry, so that it can detect failures and repair itself (as described below) within seconds. It continuously calibrates itself on the basis of a highly accurate and stable voltage reference, so that it can continue to generate accurate measurement data, even under extreme environmental conditions. It repairs itself in the sense that it contains a micro-controller that reroutes signals among redundant components as needed to maintain the ability to perform accurate and stable measurements. It detects deterioration of components, predicts future failures, and/or detects imminent failures by means of a real-time analysis in which, among other things, data on its present state are continuously compared with locally stored historical data. It minimizes unnecessary consumption of electric energy. The design architecture divides the signal conditioner into three main sections: an analog signal section, a digital module, and a power-management section. The design of the analog signal section does not follow the traditional approach of ensuring reliability through total redundancy of hardware: Instead, following an approach called spare parts tool box, the reliability of each component is assessed in terms of such considerations as risks of damage, mean times between failures, and the effects of certain failures on the performance of the signal conditioner as a whole system. Then, fewer or more spares are assigned for each affected component, pursuant to the results of this analysis, in order to obtain the required degree of reliability of the signal conditioner as a whole system. The digital module comprises one or more processors and field-programmable gate arrays, the number of each depending on the results of the aforementioned analysis. The digital module provides redundant control, monitoring, and processing of several analog signals. It is designed to minimize unnecessary consumption of electric energy, including, when possible, going into a low-power "sleep" mode that is implemented in firmware. The digital module communicates with external equipment via a personal-computer serial port. The digital module monitors the "health" of the rest of the signal conditioner by processing defined measurements and/or trends. It automatically makes adjustments to respond to channel failures, compensate for effects of temperature, and maintain calibration.

Lucena, Angel↗
NASA NTRS2020

Experimental Validation of Model-Based Prognostics for Pneumatic Valves

Because valves control many critical operations, they are prime candidates for deployment of prognostic algorithms. But, similar to the situation with most other components, examples of failures experienced in the field are hard to come by. This lack of data impacts the ability to test and validate prognostic algorithms. A solution sometimes employed to overcome this shortcoming is to perform run-to-failure experiments in a lab. However, the mean time to failure of valves is typically very high (possibly lasting decades), preventing evaluation within a reasonable time frame. Therefore, a mechanism to observe development of fault signatures considerably faster is sought. Described here is a testbed that addresses these issues by allowing the physical injection of leakage faults (which are the most common fault mode) into pneumatic valves. What makes this testbed stand out is the ability to modulate the magnitude of the fault almost arbitrarily fast. With that, the performance of end-of-life estimation algorithms can be tested. Further, the testbed is mobile and can be connected to valves in the field. This mobility helps to bring the overall process of prognostic algorithm development for this valve a step closer to validation. The paper illustrates the development of a model-based prognostic approach that uses data from the testbed for partial validation.

Chetan S Kulkarni↗
NASA NTRS2018

Validation of Model-Based Prognostics for Pneumatic Valves in a Cryogenic Fueling Demonstration Testbed

Because valves control many critical operations, they are prime candidates for deployment of prognostic algorithms. But, similar to the situation with most other components, examples of failures experienced in the field are hard to come by. This lack of data impacts the ability to test and validate prognostic algorithms. A solution sometimes employed to overcome this shortcoming is to perform run to failure experiments in a lab. However, the mean time to failure of valves is typically very high (possibly lasting decades), preventing evaluation within a reasonable time frame. Therefore, a mechanism to observe development of fault signatures considerably faster is sought. Described here is a testbed that addresses these issues by allowing the physical injection of leakage faults (which are the most common fault mode) into pneumatic valves. What makes this testbed stand out is the ability to modulate the magnitude of the fault almost arbitrarily fast. With that, the performance of end-of-life estimation algorithms can be tested. Further, the testbed is mobile and can be connected to valves in the field. This mobility helps to bring the overall process of prognostic algorithm development for this valve a step closer to validation. The paper illustrates the development of a model-based prognostic approach that uses data from the testbed for partial validation.

Kulkarni, Chetan S.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Stochastic models for the tensile strength, fatigue

The time-to-failure of a single fiber is modeled as a functional of the fiber load history and reasonable forms for this functional are proposed. Earlier models by Daniels and Coleman are shown to be special cases of the proposed model and apparent disparities in their behavior are discussed. Techniques are presented for determining analytically the asymptotic distributions of the tensile strength and time-to-failure for bundles of a large number of fibers. For smaller bundles, exact results are far too cumbersome to be of use so that efficient Monte Carlo simulation procedures are proposed.

Phoenix, S. L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Heroic Reliability Improvement in Manned Space Systems

System reliability can be significantly improved by a strong continued effort to identify and remove all the causes of actual failures. Newly designed systems often have unexpected high failure rates which can be reduced by successive design improvements until the final operational system has an acceptable failure rate. There are many causes of failures and many ways to remove them. New systems may have poor specifications, design errors, or mistaken operations concepts. Correcting unexpected problems as they occur can produce large early gains in reliability. Improved technology in materials, components, and design approaches can increase reliability. The reliability growth is achieved by repeatedly operating the system until it fails, identifying the failure cause, and fixing the problem. The failure rate reduction that can be obtained depends on the number and the failure rates of the correctable failures. Under the strong assumption that the failure causes can be removed, the decline in overall failure rate can be predicted. If a failure occurs at the rate of lambda per unit time, the expected time before the failure occurs and can be corrected is 1/lambda, the Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF). Finding and fixing a less frequent failure with the rate of lambda/2 per unit time requires twice as long, time of 1/(2 lambda). Cutting the failure rate in half requires doubling the test and redesign time and finding and eliminating the failure causes.Reducing the failure rate significantly requires a heroic reliability improvement effort.

life support↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress Relaxation Cracking in 347H Stainless Steel Arc Welds: Susceptibility Evaluation of Heat-Affected Zone

Stress relaxation cracking (SRC) is considered one of the major failure mechanisms for 347H stainless steel welds at elevated service temperatures or during post weld heat treatment (PWHT), especially within the heat-affected zone (HAZ). This work focuses on the characterization of SRC susceptibility within 347H physically simulated arc welded HAZ at elevated temperatures. A four-step SRC thermomechanical test in combination with finite element modeling (FEM) of the welding and testing processes is developed to establish a susceptibility map for HAZ. The test first runs a thermal cycle with three different peak temperatures (1335, 1275, and 1150 °C) to duplicate representative HAZ subzone microstructures, followed by time-to-failure examination under a variety of pre-stress (260–600 MPa) and pre-strain conditions (0.03–0.19) as a function of reheat temperatures between 750 and 1050 °C. With the aid of FEM, SRC susceptibility maps are generated to identify the threshold stress, plastic strain, and creep strain as a function of test temperature. It was found out that HAZ subzone with a lower peak temperature (1150 °C) appears to be slightly less susceptible to SRC than the other two subzones that experienced higher peak temperatures. Generally, time-to-fracture reduces with increasing initially applied stress and strain for all test temperatures. The pre-stress thresholds decrease from about 500 to 330 MPa as the testing temperature increases from 800 to 1050 °C, while the corresponding initial plastic strain thresholds reduces from 0.15 to 0.06. The SRC susceptibility was also evaluated through the Larson–Miller Parameter (LMP) analysis as a function of plastic strain, initial stress and starting stress upon reaching the testing temperature, respectively. The 1050 °C test with a high pre-applied strain (0.1) exhibits an extremely short time to failure (t = 3 s) that lies outside the general trend in LMP analysis. Additionally, it was identified that a plastic strain above 0.07 is identified to significantly reduce the bulk creep strain tolerance to fracture and therefore increases SRC susceptibility. Hardness measurement and fractography analysis indicated that the strain aging of niobium carbonitrides and other potential phases in conjunction with intergranular precipitates contributes to an increase in microhardness and increased intergranular cracking susceptibility.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantitative Analysis of Spaceflight Drug Stability Data to Support a Predictive Pharmaceutical Testing Strategy

To systematically quantify the time-dependent effect of spaceflight on active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) degradation, data were extracted from available published and unpublished spaceflight drug stability studies. Seven studies were identified that investigated the stability of individual medications following storage aboard crewed spacecraft. Medications stored for up to 2.4 years in low earth orbit (LEO) show limited change in API potency that, in all cases, falls within 10% of matched terrestrial controls, and within 5% of controls for the most drugs. This investigation shows that spaceflight is associated with a ~1.5-fold increase in the degradation rate relative to lot-matched terrestrial controls. Spaceflight is associated with an increased probability of drug failure over time; however, the incremental increase in degradation risk associated with spaceflight is minor compared to the baseline risk associated with terrestrial controls. Since most drugs across all NASA-supported studies were repackaged solid oral formulations that had been removed from protective manufacturer packaging, it is likely that prolonged exposure to atmospheric factors during both terrestrial and spaceflight treatments is a key contributor to degradation. Unique spaceflight environmental factors, particularly ionizing radiation and elevated CO2, may contribute to the additional cumulative effect of spaceflight. The results of this study show that the effect of spaceflight on drug stability is minor relative to the terrestrial baseline; however, the degradation rate and time-dependent failure of terrestrial controls highlights an extremely critical need to evaluate the effect of current repackaging methods and development of operationally appropriate methods to protected repackaged solid oral medications from environmental factors that mediate degradation.

J F Reichard↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Measurement Framework For Post-deployment Artificial Intelligence (ai) Integrated Systems

Resilience is largely defined as the ability to adapt or recover from adverse conditions, stresses, attacks, or compromises on systems that use or are enabled by digital resources. In Artificial Intelligence Management and Research for Advanced Networked Testbed Hub (AMARANTH), resilience is measured in the amount of time it took from the beginning of a testing period for the model to reach predictions outside of the original 95% confidence interval or using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence theorem, the Population Stability Index (PSI), and traditional methods such as root mean squared error (RMSE) threshold. Artificial Intelligence (AI) model drift is of significant concern when deploying AI-integrated systems into critical and/or secure environments. Drift can impact resilience of the AI-integrated system post-deployment and requires consistent maintenance and upkeep to ensure the model is accurate and precise. To quantify model drift and predict the point when a model's drift becomes unacceptable, we describe using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, Population Stability Index (PSI) and/or confidence interval width estimations to determine the point of failure and time to failure of a model post-deployment. Through simple code functions, the KL-divergence, PSI, confidence interval, and root mean squared (RMSE) point of failures can be used to derive when a model needs to be maintained as well as the impact of adversarial action through statistical means.

Yockey, Patience [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
NASA NTRS1975

Designing robots for industrial environments

Environmental hazards to industrial robots are summarized. The inherent reliability of the design of the Unimate robot is assessed and the data used in a management system to bring the reliability performance up to a level nearing what is theoretically available. The design is shown to be capable of a mean time between failure of 400 hours and an average up time of 98%. Specific design decisions made in view of application requirements are explored.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2011

Failure Modes in Capacitors When Tested Under a Time-Varying Stress

Power-on failure has been the prevalent failure mechanism for solid tantalum capacitors in decoupling applications. A surge step stress test (SSST) has been previously applied to identify the critical stress level of a capacitor batch to give some predictability to the power-on failure mechanism [1]. But SSST can also be viewed as an electrically destructive test under a time-varying stress (voltage). It consists of rapidly charging the capacitor with incremental voltage increases, through a low resistance in series, until the capacitor under test is electrically shorted. When the reliability of capacitors is evaluated, a highly accelerated life test (HALT) is usually adopted since it is a time-efficient method of determining the failure mechanism; however, a destructive test under a time-varying stress such as SSST is even more time efficient. It usually takes days or weeks to complete a HALT test, but it only takes minutes for a time-varying stress test to produce failures. The advantage of incorporating a specific time-varying stress profile into a statistical model is significant in providing an alternative life test method for quickly revealing the failure mechanism in capacitors. In this paper, a time-varying stress that mimics a typical SSST has been incorporated into the Weibull model to characterize the failure mechanism in different types of capacitors. The SSST circuit and transient conditions for correctly surge testing capacitors are discussed. Finally, the SSST was applied for testing Ta capacitors, polymer aluminum capacitors (PA capacitors), and multi-layer ceramic (MLC) capacitors with both precious metal electrodes (PME) and base metal electrodes (BME). The test results are found to be directly associated with the dielectric layer breakdown in Ta and PA capacitors and are independent of the capacitor values, the way the capacitors were built, and the capacitors manufacturers. The test results also show that MLC capacitors exhibit surge breakdown voltages much higher than the rated voltage and that the breakdown field is inversely proportional to the dielectric layer thickness. The SSST data can also be used to comparatively evaluate the voltage robustness of capacitors for decoupling applications.

Liu, David (Donhang)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deformation Precursors to Catastrophic Failure in Rocks

Forecasting the timing of catastrophic failure, such as crustal earthquakes, has been a central concern for centuries. Such forecasting requires identifying signals that evolve or accelerate in the precursory phase leading to failure, and the subset of signals that may be detected in the crust. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity of catastrophic failure in synchrotron X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks using characteristics of evolving fracture networks. We then examine the characteristics that most strongly influence the model results, and thus may be considered the best predictors of the proximity of macroscopic failure. Finally, the resulting suite of predictive parameters underscores the importance of dilation in the precursory phase leading to catastrophic failure. The results indicate that the evolution of the strain energy density field may provide more robust predictions of the proximity of failure than other existing metrics of rock deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evaluation of Data Retention Characteristics for Ferroelectric Random Access Memories (FRAMs)

Data retention and fatigue characteristics of 64 Kb lead zirconate titanate (PZT)-based Ferroelectric Random Access Memories (FRAMs) microcircuits manufactured by Ramtron were examined over temperature range from -85 C to +310 C for ceramic packaged parts and from -85 C to +175 C for plastic parts, during retention periods up to several thousand hours. Intrinsic failures, which were caused by a thermal degradation of the ferroelectric cells, occurred in ceramic parts after tens or hundreds hours of aging at temperatures above 200 C. The activation energy of the retention test failures was 1.05 eV and the extrapolated mean-time-to-failure (MTTF) at room temperature was estimated to be more than 280 years. Multiple write-read cycling (up to 3x10(exp 7)) during the fatigue testing of plastic and ceramic parts did not result in any parametric or functional failures. However, operational currents linearly decreased with the logarithm of number of cycles thus indicating fatigue process in PZT films. Plastic parts, that had more recent date code as compared to ceramic parts, appeared to be using die with improved process technology and showed significantly smaller changes in operational currents and data access times.

Sharma, Ashok K.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Spherically Actuated Motor

A three degree of freedom (DOF) spherical actuator is proposed that will replace functions requiring three single DOF actuators in robotic manipulators providing space and weight savings while reducing the overall failure rate. Exploration satellites, Space Station payload manipulators, and rovers requiring pan, tilt, and rotate movements need an actuator for each function. Not only does each actuator introduce additional failure modes and require bulky mechanical gimbals, each contains many moving parts, decreasing mean time to failure. A conventional robotic manipulator is shown in figure 1. Spherical motors perform all three actuation functions, i.e., three DOF, with only one moving part. Given a standard three actuator system whose actuators have a given failure rate compared to a spherical motor with an equal failure rate, the three actuator system is three times as likely to fail over the latter. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory reliability studies of NASA robotic spacecraft have shown that mechanical hardware/mechanism failures are more frequent and more likely to significantly affect mission success than are electronic failures. Unfortunately, previously designed spherical motors have been unable to provide the performance needed by space missions. This inadequacy is also why they are unavailable commercially. An improved patentable spherically actuated motor (SAM) is proposed to provide the performance and versatility required by NASA missions.

Peeples, Steven↗