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DOE OSTI2026

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 Earthquake in Northeastern Utah, United States: An Archetypal Continental Mantle Event

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 earthquake in northeastern Utah, United States, had a focal depth 68 km beneath sea level, which is ∼20–25 km greater than estimates of local crustal thickness, making it a rare example of a continental mantle earthquake (CME). The focal depth is well resolved from arrival-time inversion (nearest station ∼13 km away) and moment tensor inversion of regional waveforms. Similar to other CMEs in the Intermountain West, there were no obvious aftershocks or foreshocks, and the waveforms were enriched in high-frequency energy. Spectral modeling gives a stress drop of ∼80 MPa and a radiation efficiency of ∼0.08, albeit with large uncertainties. The high stress drop and low radiation efficiency are consistent with a dissipative source process such as thermal runaway. Also similar to previous Intermountain West CMEs, the event occurred along the boundary of the Archean Wyoming craton, where pressure–temperature conditions favor ductile deformation. We hypothesize that edge-driven or regional-scale mantle convection produces increased strain rates near the craton boundary that make either conventional brittle failure or thermal runaway feasible at relatively high pressure–temperature conditions. High conductivity inferred around the edge of the craton may suggest that fluids also contribute to CME occurrence.

Koper, Keith D. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conformational Dynamics of Bacteriochlorophyll c in Chlorosomes from the bchQ Mutant of Chlorobaculum tepidum

In contrast to the common viewpoint that bacteriochlorophyll (BChl) motion is largely absent within the chlorosome assembly, physics-based modeling points to a crucial role of the nanoscale librational motion of the macrocycle for the transfer of excitons. To elucidate this motion experimentally, compositional uniformity and high sensitivity are required. We focused on uniformly 13 C labeled chlorosome preparations from the bchQ mutant Chlorobaculum tepidum with significantly enhanced structural homogeneity. The librational motion is characterized using Rotational Echo DOuble Resonance (REDOR), and in addition, the impact of temperature on specific functionalities within BChl molecules is studied with 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional dipolar and scalar-based MAS NMR measurements. Results show the gradual freezing of the tails and side chains of the BChls with decreasing temperature. However, the librational motion analyzed by measuring the 5C–H dipolar coupling strength obtained from REDOR data sets persists at different temperatures. REDOR simulations show a close match to the experimental dephasing frequency of oscillation for a dipolar coupling strength of 17.5 ± 0.5 kHz which is considerably less than the dipolar coupling strength of 22.7 kHz in the rigid limit. Following a two-site jump model, we arrive at an estimate for BChl libration sampling at an angle of θ = 48 ± 4°, corroborating that the macrocycle indeed experiences significant librational motion on a time scale that is short compared to the NMR measurement time. This finding is in full quantitative support of the dominant rotational motion exhibited by the BChl macrocycle estimated from early MD simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Spherical Earth Solution for TOA Lightning Location Retrieval

The problem of retrieving ligntning, ground-strike location on a spherical Earth surface using a network of 4 or more time-of-arrival (TOA) sensors is considered, It is shown that this problem has an analytic solution and therefore does not require the use of nonlinear estimation theory (e.g., minimization). The mathematical robustness of the analytic solution is tested using computer-generated lightning sources and simulated TOA measurement errors. A summary of a quasi-analytic extension of the spherical Earth solution to an oblate spheroid Earth geometry is also provided.

Koshak, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Smoothed perturbation analysis algorithms for estimating the derivatives of occupancy-related functions in serial queueing networks

The authors present smoothed perturbation analysis (SPA) estimators for the derivative of a number of occupancy-related functions in serial queuing networks with finite buffer spaces. The functions are the average number of customers at a network as seen by an arrival, the probability that a customer is blocked at a particular queue, and the probability that a customer leaves a queue empty. In all three cases, the variable is a parameter of the distribution of service times at one of the queues. The derivative estimators considered are very simple and flexible, and they easily lend themselves to analysis of unbiasedness. Unlike most of the established SPA estimators, the present ones are not based on the computation of hazard rates.

Wardi, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Prediction of Weather Impacts on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Capacity

This paper introduces a data driven model for predicting airport arrival capacity with a look-ahead time 2-8 hour forecast. The model is suitable for air traffic flow management by explicitly investigating the impact of convective weather on airport arrival meter fix throughput. Estimation of the arrival airport capacity under arrival meter fix flow constraints due to severe weather is an important part of Air Traffic Management (ATM). Airport arrival capacity can be reduced if one or more airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by convective weather. When the predicted airport arrival demands exceed the predicted available airport's arrival capacity for a sustained period, Ground Delay Program (GDP) operations will be triggered by ATM system. Serious imbalances between demand and capacity occur most frequently when the airport capacity is severely degraded due to either bad airport terminal surface weather or inclement convective weather around airport arrival fixes. A model that predicts the weather-impacted airport arrival meter fix throughput may help ATM personnel to plan GDP operations more efficiently. This paper identifies the characteristics of air traffic flow across arrival meter fixes at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). The proposed approach, based on machine-learning methods, is developed to predict the weather impacted EWR arrival Meter Fix (MF) throughput. Sector forecast coverage is used to envision the weather impact on airport arrival MF flow, and the validation is accomplished by using Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) 0.5 to 2-hour and Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) 4 to 8-hour look-ahead forecast data for the period of April-September in 2014. Furthermore, the regression tree ensemble learning of random forests approach for translating a sector forecast coverage model to an EWR arrival meter fix throughput model is examined. The results suggest that ATM decision makers in charge of MF flow control and GDP planning may benefit from adopting the airport arrival meter capacity prediction models to estimate the inclement weather impacts.

Wang, Yao X.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Long-term Neutron Background Environment Measured by the Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons (DAN) Instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory (MSL)

The Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons (DAN) instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) consists of a pulsed neutron generator (PNG) and the neutron detector/electronics (DE) module. There are two 3He-proportional counters used in the DE module. One counter is surrounded with a Cd shell enclosure and measures epi-thermal neutrons with >0.4 eV. The second detector does not have a Cd shell enclosure and measures both thermal and epi-thermal neutrons. The main scientific objectives of DAN are two-fold: (1) the primary objective is to measure the bulk hydrogen abundance (in forms of water or hydrated minerals) of the sub-surface and (2) the secondary objective is to measure the background neutron environment at the surface. DAN achieves the first objective by using a pulsed 14 MeV neutron source (ACTIVE mode). Emitted neutrons undergo a series of nuclear interactions with the regolith and lose energy. The DAN DE module then measures the time profile of the neutrons returned from the regolith. Even a small amount of hydrogen, as low as 0.1 weight % in the regolith, can effectively moderate the high energy neutrons [Mitrofanov, et al., ]. The less-moderated (or epi-thermal) neutrons arrive at the detector earlier than the more-moderated (or thermal) neutrons. The shape and magnitude of neutron time profile curves after pulses can be used to estimate the depth distribution of the hydrogen content. When no neutron pulse is used (PASSIVE mode) DAN measures the neutron background environment at the Mars surface. There are two sources of the background neutrons which DAN would measure: one is secondary neutrons generated by galactic cosmic ray (GCR) interactions with atmospheric and surface materials and the other is neutrons from the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) onboard MSL as a power source. The passive mode data for the first 1300 sols of the MSL mission are presented in this paper. A summary of the DAN surface operation is described by [Mitrofanov et al., 2012; Jun et al., 2013.

Tate, C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Target Tracking with Distributed Sensing and Optimal Data Migration

The paper presents an Extended Kalman Filter based framework for airborne target tracking using adaptive information fusion from multi-modal multi-rate distributed sensors network. First, the tracking algorithm execution location is determined using an optimal data migration strategy, which also computes the associated delays for each sensor data to arrive at the computing location. Next, the fast (zero-delay) sensors information is dynamically fused in the filter correction procedure at the arrival instance of each valid sensor reading. Finally, the target estimation is updated based on the valid slow (delayed) data, which are grouped according to the delay-time steps before application of the Larsen's method. This approach is applied to the synthetic sensor data generated by means of the ground based radar and camera models for the simulated target flight in Reflection simulation environment.

Distributed sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Target Tracking with Distributed Sensing and Optimal Data Migration

Distributed sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Changes in Oculomotor Behavior and PVT Reaction Time During One Night of Sleep Deprivation

INTRODUCTION: The Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) is a widely used objective measure of sustained attention, alertness, and fatigue. Previous studies consistently show that prolonged wakefulness and disrupted sleep patterns lead to increased lapses of attention and slower reaction times. These findings have critical implications for various professions, including healthcare, aviation, transportation safety, and spaceflight. In this study, we employed linear mixed models (LMM) to investigate hourly-measured 5-minute PVT reaction times during one night of total sleep deprivation. Our goal was to characterize the contribution of homeostatic sleep pressure (time awake) and circadian phase (salivary melatonin levels) on the dynamics of PVT reaction time. MATERIALS & METHODS: Data from twelve human participants were used in the analysis. Participants were healthy non-smokers, aged 18 and 40, with normal sleep habits defined as Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index scores < 5, and Morningness – Eveningness Questionnaire scores > 42 and < 58, respectively. Participants followed a constant-routine protocol and arrived at the NASA sleep laboratory approximately 1 to 2 hours after their habitual waking time. Tympanic temperature was measured every 30 min to provide a real-time estimate of circadian phase. Participants were required to stay awake throughout the laboratory experiment, which continued until their tympanic temperature had returned to baseline levels. This approach ensured that we could capture each participant's circadian trough and recovery, typically occurring between 24 and 26 hours after waking. The PVT and saliva melatonin were measured every hour, starting approximately from 3 hours after awakening. More information about the measurement protocol can be found in the publication by Stone et al. We used PVT reaction times between 100 and 10000 ms to calculate Reciprocal Reaction Times (RRTs). LMM models were employed to assess the contribution of time awake and saliva melatonin levels on changes in RRTs. Two models were created: the first model treated time awake as a fixed effect and the second model considered both the salivary melatonin level and time awake as fixed effects. Participants were included as a random effect in both models. We compared the models using an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The models were computed using the 'lmer' function from the 'lme4' package in R, and LMM p-values were determined using Satterthwaite's method. RESULTS: We found that time awake had a statistically significant effect on PVT RRTs during one night of sleep deprivation [χ2 = 2132.4, df = 1, p < 0.001]. In addition, the model including both saliva melatonin levels and time awake was statistically significantly better than one that uses just time awake [χ2 = 17.4, df = 1, p < 0.001]. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: As expected, these preliminary results suggest that the time awake and circadian phase each contribute to performance reductions as measured by the PVT. Future analyses will explore the contributions of other factors to the model.

sleep deprivation↗

NASA NTRS2015

Conflict Alerts for Aircraft Conducting Visual Approaches

It is common for aircraft to conduct visual and instrument final approaches to a single runway or multiple parallel runways. Useful, nonexcessive safety alerts on aircraft conducting visual approaches are helpful to air traffic controllers, though pilots are responsible for separation with the preceding aircraft. A variety of visual approaches to various runway configurations are studied, and a set of safety alert thresholds is proposed. Fast-time simulations with recorded real-world air traffic data of mostly visual approach flights are performed on a prototype tactical separation assurance system for terminal airspace. Alerts are generated -- with both the standard separation thresholds and the proposed safety alert thresholds -- and compared with those from the Conflict Alert (CA) functionality in the Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System (STARS). The results show that the number of Mode-C Intruder alerts generated was reduced 76% as compared to STARS CA. The nuisance alerts generated by assuming visual to be instrument approaches was reduced by 92% when the proposed safety alert thresholds were used and visual approaches were assumed.A set of safety alert thresholds, which allow safety alerts to be provided to the controllers for aircraft conductingvisual approaches to a single runway or multiple parallel runways, has been proposed based on input from SubjectMatter Experts as well as visual approach procedures and common practices. The goal is to maximize the thresholdswithin the guidance of the procedures and common practices and to minimize the number of nuisance alerts and totalnumber of alerts with the support of flight intent information. Tests have been performed using a recently developedprototype tactical separation assurance system for terminal airspace, called Terminal Tactical Separation-AssuredFlight Environment (T-TSAFE). The input was a full day of air traffic data from Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) TRACONwith most arriving flights conducting visual approaches. The results compare favorably with those of the ConflictAlert (CA) functionality of the Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System (STARS).When fast-time simulation experiment was performed using T-TSAFE with all arriving flights assumed to conductinstrument approaches, the expected large number of separation alerts were observed. When compared with STARSCA, the conflict pairs common to both T-TSAFE and STARS CA was only 21% of the total STARS CA alerts. As aresult, the nuisance-alert rate for STARS CA was estimated to be about 70%, which is comparable to a similar previously estimation of 80% nuisance-alert rate for CARTS (Common Automated Radar Terminal System) CA. The Mode-CIntruder (MCI) alerts were also reduced by 76% as compared to STARS CA.Examination of the common conflict pairs between T-TSAFE and STARS CA shows that they are valid separationconflicts with good alert lead times for T-TSAFE. However, many of them would still be considered nuisance alertsif the aircraft were conducting visual approaches. This was confirmed by another visual approach fast-time simulationT-TSAFE experiment, in which all DFW arriving flights were assumed to be on visual approaches and our proposedsafety alert thresholds were used and tested. The result of the experiment showed that the number of non-MCI alertswas less by 92% as compared to the number when all DFW arrivals were assumed to be conducting instrumentapproaches. The common conflict pairs involving aircraft conducting visual approaches to parallel runways werereduced by 93% as well. Thus, the flight intent information and the safety alert thresholds are effective in reducingnuisance alerts.T-TSAFE can thus provide separation and safety conflict alerts seamlessly in the real-world environment of mixedterminal operations with arriving flights of both visual and instrument approaches. Compared with STARS CA, TTSAFEhas fewer false alerts, larger alert lead time, and larger alert thresholds. While the nuisance alerts are reducedsignificantly with the safety alert thresholds, further work is needed to study if the alert lead time for safety alerts issufficient.

Tang, Huabin↗

NASA NTRS2020

In-Time UAV Flight-Trajectory Estimation and Tracking Using Bayesian Filters

Rapid increase of UAV operation in the next decade in areas of on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement, traffic surveillance and several others pose potential risks to the low altitude airspace above densely populated areas. Safety assessment of airspace demands the need for a novel UAV traffic management (UTM) framework for regulation and tracking of the vehicles. Particularly for low-altitude UAV operations, quality of GPS measurements feeding into the UAV is often compromised by loss of communication link caused by presence of trees or tall buildings in proximity to the UAV flight path. Inaccurate GPS locations may yield to unreliable monitoring and inaccurate prognosis of remaining battery life and other safety metrics which rely on future expected trajectory of the UAV. This work therefore proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology for autonomous UAVs using in-time GPS measurements. Firstly, a typical 4D smooth trajectory generation technique from a series of waypoint locations with associated expected times-of-arrival based on B-spline curves is presented. Initial uncertainty in the vehicle's expected cruise velocity is quantified to compute confidence intervals along the entire flight trajectory using error interval propagation approach. Further, the generated planned trajectory is considered as the prior knowledge which is updated during its flight with incoming GPS measurements in order to estimate its current location and corresponding kinematic profiles. Estimation of position is denoted in dicrete state-space representation such that position at a future time step is derived from position and velocity at current time step and expected velocity at the future time step. A linear Bayesian filtering algorithm is employed to efficiently refine position estimation from noisy GPS measurements and update the confidence intervals. Further, a dynamic re-planning strategy is implemented to incorporate unexpected detour or delay scenarios. Finally, critical challenges related to uncertainty quantification in trajectory prognosis for autonomous vehicles are identified, and potential solutions are discussed at the end of the paper. The entire monitoring framework is demonstrated on real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Banerjee, Portia↗

NASA NTRS2004

From Runway to Orbit: Reflections of a NASA Engineer

In his remarkable memoir Runway to Orbit, Dr. Kenneth W. Iliff - the recently retired Chief Scientist of the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center- tells a highly personal, yet a highly persuasive account of the last forty years of American aeronautical research. His interpretation of events commands respect, because over these years he has played pivotal roles in many of the most important American aeronautics and spaceflight endeavors. Moreover, his narrative covers much of the second half of the first 100 years of flight, a centennial anniversary being celebrated this year. aerospace knowledge. He arrived at the then NASA Flight Research Center in 1962 as a young aeronautical engineer and quickly became involved in two of the seminal projects of modern flight, the X-15 and the lifting bodies. In the process, he pioneered (with Lawrence Taylor) the application of digital computing to the reduction of flight data, arriving at a method known as parameter estimation, now applied the world over. Parameter estimation not only enabled researchers to acquire stability and control derivatives from limited flight data, but in time allowed them to obtain a wide range of aerodynamic effects. Although subsequently involved in dozens of important projects, Dr. Iliff devoted much of his time and energy to hypersonic flight, embodied in the Shuttle orbiter (or as he refers to it, the world s fastest airplane). To him, each Shuttle flight, instrumented to obtain a variety of data, represents a research treasure trove, one that he has mined for years. This book, then, represents the story of Dr. Ken Iliff s passion for flight, his work, and his long and astoundingly productive career. It can be read with profit not just by scientists and engineers, but equally by policy makers, historians, and journalists wishing to better comprehend advancements in flight during the second half of the twentieth century. Dr. Iliff's story is one of immense contributions to the nation s repository of

Iliff, Kenneth W.↗

DOE OSTI2023

SKS Polarization Anomalies Due to the Coriolis Force

The Earth’s Coriolis force has been well–known to impact surface waves and normal modes, which is essential to accurately interpret these waves. However, the Coriolis force on body waves has been assumed to be negligible and mostly ignored. It has been previously shown that the Coriolis force impacts polarizations of shear waves, whereas the wavefronts remain unaffected. We expand on the potential influences of Earth’s Coriolis force on shear–wave polarization measurements by conducting 3D numerical simulations for elastic waves generated by earthquake and explosive sources in a radially symmetric, and 3D mantle and crustal models. The Coriolis force can produce polarization anomalies of mantle shear waves up to 7° and core phases, such as SKS and SKKS, up to 4°. Uncorrected shear–wave polarizations due to the Coriolis force can cause an additional source of error (5°–10° in fast direction, and 0.2–0.3 s delay time depending on the method and seismic phase), inaccurate interpretation of station misalignments, and imprecise estimates of the core–mantle boundary topography. We show how to correct for the Coriolis force on teleseismic shear waves using 1D ray tracing for well–isolated phases. Here, we recommend the use of full waveform simulations to accurately account for earthquake sources parameters, poorly isolated phases that could include interfering phase arrivals within the measurement time window, and the effect of the Coriolis force on the polarizations of shear waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Downlink Receiver Algorithms for Deep Space Optical Communications

The goal of the Deep Space Optical Communications project at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory is to demonstrate laser communication links at ranges out to approximately 3 AU. In this paper, we discuss a downlink receiver concept capable of demodulating optical pulse-position modulated (PPM) waveforms with data rates varying from approximately 50 kbps up to 265 Mbps, using a range of PPM orders, slot widths, and code rates. The receiver operates on recorded timestamps corresponding to the times-of-arrival of photons detected by a photon-counting detector array followed by a commercial time-tagger. Algorithms are presented for slot, symbol, and frame synchronization as well as parameter estimation. Estimates of link performance are evaluated through Monte- Carlo simulation for an optical channel that includes optical losses, detector blocking, signal clock dynamics, and pointing-induced downlink fades. Based upon these simulation results, it is expected that link closure may be achieved with at least 3 dB of margin under a variety of relevant conditions.

Tkacenko, Andre↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design of an epithermal neutron velocity selection system for the Penn State Breazeale Reactor

A series of mechanical neutron choppers to operate as a velocity selection system have been developed for the Pennsylvania State Breazeal Reactor (PSBR). This chopper system will provide pulsed epithermal neutrons in the energy range of 0.5–40 eV with 2% or better energy resolution, and with a transmission of 1E-6 or better. Four different chopper geometries have been evaluated for their utility as mechanical neutron choppers. Specifically, Fermi, ring, piston, and disc choppers have been evaluated to assess their potential neutronics performance and mechanical constructability. A series of high-speed disc choppers were selected for the final design, and optimization work was performed to maximize the neutron pulse intensity. It is estimated that the optimized system will produce an epithermal neutron intensity of approximately 96 n/s. This system can also be operated in a time of flight (TOF) configuration such that the neutrons arriving at the source have a white spectrum. This operation can be accomplished by leaving the second stage of choppers in the open position, or by removing it from the beam completely. Such unique source of epithermal neutrons produced by this chopper system will have applications in both prompt and delayed epithermal neutron activation analysis (ENAA), as well as in neutron resonance transmission analysis (NRTA).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1982

Navigation system design for a Halley sample return mission

A ballistic sample return mission to Comet Halley was recently considered by the United States. This paper describes the navigation system and the navigation strategy which would have been employed in such a mission, assuming a launch in August of 1985, an arrival at the comet in March of 1986, and a return to earth in August of 1989. Estimates of spacecraft comet- and earth-relative orbit determination accuracies are presented as functions of time. Target-relative delivery accuracies for the spacecraft and associated trajectory correction maneuver requirements are presented also.

Wood, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Ulysses navigation

Ulysses, a cooperative NASA and ESA project, measures charged and neutral particles, magnetic fields, and electromagnetic wave emissions from the Sun's polar regions and the out of elliptic heliospheric environment. ESA supplied the spacecraft and one half of the instruments, and is in control of the spacecraft and its attitude. NASA supplied the power supply, one half of the instruments, the launch vehicle, and tracks the spacecraft and performs the navigation. Orbit determination results mapped to the time of Jupiter's arrival show improved accuracy and consistency over the course of the mission to date. Solar radiation pressure model uncertainties are major contributors to orbit determination errors, but are being estimated more accurately as data are accumulated.

Gordon, H. J.↗