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DOE OSTI2024

Securing Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) through Cyber Defense and Resilient System (CYDRES)

The DOE CYDRES project is driven by the urgent need to address critical research gaps in the domain of cyber-physical security of smart buildings, including Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEBs). CYDRES, a real-time advanced building resilient platform, aims to enhance the cyber-attack-immune capabilities of buildings through multi-layered prevention, detection, and adaptation mechanisms. CYDRES consists of five key modules: a multi-layer network analyzer, an Automatic Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (AFDDP) framework, an intelligent mode selector, a cyber-resilient control framework, and a situation awareness platform. The Network Analyzer employs a data-driven framework that includes a protocol state learning tool and a CRF (Conditional Random Field) command validator. In Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) testbeds, it achieved 100% detection accuracy with a false alarm rate of 3%, validating its efficacy in identifying selected cyber-attacks. The AFDDP framework leverages pattern matching, PCA (Principal Component Analysis)-based strategies, and a DBN (Dynamic Bayesian Network)-based fault diagnosis approach to pinpoint the causes of physical system abnormalities using Building Automation System (BAS) data. In HIL experiments, the AFDDP module attained a detection accuracy of over 95% with a false alarm rate below 7%. Additionally, the fault detector utilized machine learning (Random Forest) and deep learning (Multi-Layer Perceptron) methods with acoustic sensor data to achieve a 100% fault detection accuracy in Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) equipment. The Mode Selector offered real-time impact analysis, allowing immediate actions to protect BASs in the face of emerging threats. The cyber-resilient control framework included an adaptive Model Predictive Control (MPC) and a measurement compensator, reducing temperature violations by up to 94% and improving the total demand flexibility by up to 70% in HIL experiments. Such HIL experiments covered a cyber-attack case and a physical fault case, showcasing CYDRES’ efficiency in maintaining operational continuity during threats. The situation awareness platform in Grafana enhanced real-time threat detection and response visualization, augmenting the operational awareness for building operators. CYDRES demonstrated high technical effectiveness in various test scenarios, particularly in HIL environments. The project's phased development approach ensured efficient use of resources, highlighting its practical feasibility and readiness for commercialization. By enhancing the security and resilience of building operations, CYDRES represents a significant advance in mitigating risks associated with cyber-physical systems, thereby enhancing public confidence in the safety of modern building infrastructure. Future directions for the project include expanding testing protocols, refining AFDDP methodologies, exploring more comprehensive resilient control strategies, and testing in real commercial buildings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Responsible Artificial Intelligence for Insider Threat Mitigation

This report examines the application of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies for insider threat mitigation (ITM) programs in nuclear security facilities. Insider threat detection presents unique challenges due to the subtle and adaptive nature of these threats, the complex signatures involved, and the scarcity of available data for analysis. Traditional human-centered approaches, while essential, face limitations in processing large amounts of data continuously and detecting subtle patterns across multiple systems. AI technologies can potentially address these limitations by providing 24/7 monitoring capabilities, identifying complex patterns that might escape human observation, and offering consistent application of security criteria. However, the deployment of AI in nuclear security contexts introduces significant new risks, including workflow disruption, expanded attack surfaces, potential for misuse, and ethical concerns regarding privacy, fairness, transparency, safety, and security. The high-consequence nature of nuclear security decisions demands careful consideration of these risks and systematic approaches to their mitigation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS2010

Using Game Theory to Qualitatively Analyze Global Relations

As the world becomes smaller, the importance of global education increases. Technological advancements have made news instantaneous. The advent of the Internet has made contact with another part of the world just a click away. Such achievements have put pressure on educational institutions to prepare students for the global community in which they already live. !~ey must not only ~e taug~~ about the world and the interactions among countries, but also, how the decIsions are made which facillta~e. these interactions and what factors might contribute to the chain reactions which might erupt from such declsl?n~. It is critical that students learn the skills of decision-making and analysis in order to be able to operate Within a world where threats and crises abound. As tomorrow's leaders, today's students must be exposed to the global world and its mechanisms and learn the tools to navigate within it.

Tacosa, Corliss A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA Space Rocket Logistics Challenges

The Space Launch System (SLS) is the new NASA heavy lift launch vehicle and is scheduled for its first mission in 2017. The goal of the first mission, which will be uncrewed, is to demonstrate the integrated system performance of the SLS rocket and spacecraft before a crewed flight in 2021. SLS has many of the same logistics challenges as any other large scale program. Common logistics concerns for SLS include integration of discreet programs geographically separated, multiple prime contractors with distinct and different goals, schedule pressures and funding constraints. However, SLS also faces unique challenges. The new program is a confluence of new hardware and heritage, with heritage hardware constituting seventy-five percent of the program. This unique approach to design makes logistics concerns such as commonality especially problematic. Additionally, a very low manifest rate of one flight every four years makes logistics comparatively expensive. That, along with the SLS architecture being developed using a block upgrade evolutionary approach, exacerbates long-range planning for supportability considerations. These common and unique logistics challenges must be clearly identified and tackled to allow SLS to have a successful program. This paper will address the common and unique challenges facing the SLS programs, along with the analysis and decisions the NASA Logistics engineers are making to mitigate the threats posed by each.

Neeley, James R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative Power System Resilience Metrics and Evaluation Approach: Preprint

Power system resilience is an emerging topic and plays an essential role in helping power industry understand and respond to the increasing threats of extreme weather events. The first step of power system resilience analysis is to introduce metrics to quantify the resilience reasonably. Existing resilience metrics are typically restrained by the limited data for extreme event modeling and fall short in terms of physical interpretation and comparability. This paper develops novel quantitative metrics to evaluate power system resilience in pre- and post-event contexts. The developed metrics illustrate clear physical meanings and can be effectively used to compare resilience across different systems under different extreme events. Moreover, the developed metrics can be applied to both transmission and distribution systems. Simulation on a distribution system is employed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed resilience metrics and resilience evaluation approach.

power system resilience↗

NASA NTRS1993

Determination of atomic oxygen fluence using spectrophotometric analysis of infrared transparent witness coupons for long duration exposure tests

Atomic oxygen degradation is one of several major threats to the durability of spaceborne systems in low Earth orbit. Ground-based simulations are conducted to learn how to minimize the adverse effects of atomic oxygen exposure. Assessing the fluence of atomic oxygen in test chambers such as a plasma asher over long periods of time is necessary for accurate determination of atomic oxygen exposure. Currently, an atomic oxygen susceptible organic material such as Kapton is placed next to samples as a witness coupon and its mass loss is monitored and used to determine the effective atomic oxygen fluence. However, degradation of the Kapton witness coupons occurs so rapidly in plasma ashers that for any long term test many witness coupons must be used sequentially in order to keep track of the fluence. This necessitates opening vacuum to substitute fresh coupons. A passive dosimetry technique was sought to monitor atomic oxygen exposure over longer periods without the need to open the plasma asher to the atmosphere. This paper investigates the use of spectrophotometric analysis of durable IR transparent witness coupons to measure atomic oxygen exposure for longer duration testing. The method considered would be conductive to making in situ measurements of atomic oxygen fluence.

Podojil, Gregg M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool

The goal of this task was to upgrade to the existing severe weather database by adding observations from the 2010 warm season, update the verification dataset with results from the 2010 warm season, use statistical logistic regression analysis on the database and develop a new forecast tool. The AMU analyzed 7 stability parameters that showed the possibility of providing guidance in forecasting severe weather, calculated verification statistics for the Total Threat Score (TTS), and calculated warm season verification statistics for the 2010 season. The AMU also performed statistical logistic regression analysis on the 22-year severe weather database. The results indicated that the logistic regression equation did not show an increase in skill over the previously developed TTS. The equation showed less accuracy than TTS at predicting severe weather, little ability to distinguish between severe and non-severe weather days, and worse standard categorical accuracy measures and skill scores over TTS.

Watson, Leela↗

NASA NTRS1974

Remote sensing by ERTS satellite of vegetational resources believed to be under possible threat of environmental stress

The distribution of natural vegetation types on North Merritt Island, Florida, was studied by analysis of ERTS multispectral scanner data on the image-100 computer system. The boundaries of six distinct plant associations were located on photos made on the image analyzer, with an insignificant mean error of -24.38 meters. The six plant associations are described; each had a characteristic spectral signature. The difference in average reflectance grey level between the lowest of the four spectral scanning bands and the highest spectral scanning band for the six vegetation types was determined. The decreasing trend of the differences is strongly negatively correlated with height of land.

Poonai, P.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Remote sensing by ERTS satellite of vegetational resources believed to be under possible threat of environmental stress

The distribution of natural vegetation on North Merritt Island, Florida, was studied by computer analysis of ERTS satellite multispectral-scanner data. The boundaries of six distinct plant associations were located in photos produced on the image analyzer with an insignificant mean error of -24.38 meters. The six plant associations are described as: aquatic estuarine association, mangrove, spartina swamp, wooded swamp, sabal hammock, and oak-palmetto. The difference in average reflectance 'grey level' between the lowest of the four spectral scanning bands and the highest spectral scanning band for each of the six vegetation types is described. The decreasing trend of the differences is strongly negatively correlated with height of land, the coefficient of correlation being -0.9696.

Pooni, P.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Development and Analysis of a Thick Cloud Layers Database for Lightning Launch Commit Criteria Improvement

Lightning can pose a potential threat to space launch vehicles. In response to this, rules were created called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) that help weather personnel evaluate the potential for natural and rocket-triggered lightning. One of the ten LLCC with the least research is called the Thick Cloud Layers rule. To further understand electrification of thick cloud layers and potentially improve the Thick Cloud Layers rule, a database of thick cloud layers that occurred over the Eastern Range was created. This database is then used to create an algorithm for identifying and differentiating thick cloud layers from other cloud types based on radar characteristics, temperature levels in reference to cloud height, and the surface electric field. By analyzing and identifying thick cloud events, this project could help narrow down when thick clouds are occurring and potentially minimize unnecessary launch delays. Events that caused LLCC violations involving the Thick Cloud Layers rule were analyzed by hand using Level-2 NEXRAD radar data from the National Weather Service WSR-88D radar in Melbourne with the program GR2Analyst. Cases that were found to be isolated and not involved with convection were recorded (date, start/end time, location) in a database. Radar data associated with these cases was collected and gridded using Python radar packages. Once gridded, I calculated and recorded for each radar scan the following radar reflectivity driven parameters within an 11x11 km bin centered on each 1 square km grid point: the mean reflectivity colder than 0 degrees Celsius, Maximum Radar Reflectivity (MRR) colder than 0 degrees Celsius, Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR), Hydrometeor Identification (HID), the difference between the maximum and mean reflectivity, the cloud depth colder than 0 degrees Celsius, the overall cloud depth, the cloud top, and the cloud bottom. Soundings for each event were used to determine cloud temperature levels, and where the cloud is in relation to the freezing level. Electric field mill data collected over the Eastern Range was used to determine surface electric fields below each cloud. All parameters were analyzed in depth for several thick cloud cases to gain an understanding of typical thick cloud characteristics. Cases of thick clouds and other isolated cloud types were also recorded for training purposes to see if enough differences exist between cloud types to differentiate them with an algorithm. Each case along with its corresponding characteristics was recorded in a database, and this database was used to compare differing cloud types, as well as train the algorithm to detect thick clouds.

Lightning↗

NASA NTRS1995

Gas chromatography/ion mobility spectrometry as a hyphenated technique for improved explosives detection and analysis

Ion Mobility Spectrometry (IMS) is currently being successfully applied to the problem of on-line trace detection of plastic and other explosives in airports and other facilities. The methods of sample retrieval primarily consist of batch sampling for particulate residue on a filter card for introduction into the IMS. The sample is desorbed into the IMS using air as the carrier and negative ions of the explosives are detected, some as an adduct with a reagent ion such as Cl(-). Based on studies and tests conducted by different airport authorities, this method seems to work well for low vapor pressure explosives such as RDX and PETN, as well as TNT that are highly adsorptive and can be found in nanogram quantities on contaminated surfaces. Recently, the changing terrorist threat and the adoption of new marking agents for plastic explosives has meant that the sample introduction and analysis capabilities of the IMS must be enhanced in order to keep up with other detector developments. The IMS has sufficient analytical resolution for a few threat compounds but the IMS Plasmogram becomes increasingly more difficult to interpret when the sample mixture gets more complex.

Mercado, AL↗

NASA NTRS2012

Laser Remediation of Threats Posed by Small Orbital Debris

The continually increasing amount of orbital debris in near Earth space poses an increasing challenge to space situational awareness. Recent collisions of spacecraft caused abrupt increases in the density of both large and small debris in near Earth space. An especially challenging class of threats is that due to the increasing density of small (1 mm to 10 cm dimension) orbital debris. This small debris poses a serious threat since: (1) The high velocity enables even millimeter dimension debris to cause serious damage to vulnerable areas of space assets, e.g., detector windows; (2) The small size and large number of debris elements prevent adequate detection and cataloguing. We have identified solutions to this threat in the form of novel laser systems and novel ways of using these laser systems. While implementation of the solutions we identify is challenging we find approaches offering threat mitigation within time frames and at costs of practical interest. We base our analysis on the unique combination of coherent light specifically structured in both space and time and applied in novel ways entirely within the vacuum of space to deorbiting small debris. We compare and contrast laser based small debris removal strategies using ground based laser systems with strategies using space based laser systems. We find laser systems located and used entirely within space offer essential and decisive advantages over groundbased laser systems.

Fork, Richard L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

The SMART-NAS Testbed

The SMART-NAS Testbed for Safe Trajectory Based Operations Project will deliver an evaluation capability, critical to the ATM community, allowing full NextGen and beyond-NextGen concepts to be assessed and developed. To meet this objective a strong focus will be placed on concept integration and validation to enable a gate-to-gate trajectory-based system capability that satisfies a full vision for NextGen. The SMART-NAS for Safe TBO Project consists of six sub-projects. Three of the sub-projects are focused on exploring and developing technologies, concepts and models for evolving and transforming air traffic management operations in the ATM+2 time horizon, while the remaining three sub-projects are focused on developing the tools and capabilities needed for testing these advanced concepts. Function Allocation, Networked Air Traffic Management and Trajectory Based Operations are developing concepts and models. SMART-NAS Test-bed, System Assurance Technologies and Real-time Safety Modeling are developing the tools and capabilities to test these concepts. Simulation and modeling capabilities will include the ability to assess multiple operational scenarios of the national airspace system, accept data feeds, allowing shadowing of actual operations in either real-time, fast-time and/or hybrid modes of operations in distributed environments, and enable integrated examinations of concepts, algorithms, technologies, and NAS architectures. An important focus within this project is to enable the development of a real-time, system-wide safety assurance system. The basis of such a system is a continuum of information acquisition, analysis, and assessment that enables awareness and corrective action to detect and mitigate potential threats to continuous system-wide safety at all levels. This process, which currently can only be done post operations, will be driven towards "real-time" assessments in the 2035 time frame.

Trajectory Based Operations↗

DOE OSTI2024

GraphCH: A Deep Framework for Assessing Cyber-Human Aspects in Insider Threat Detection

Insider threat is one of the most damaging cyber attacks that could cause the loss of intellectual property and enterprise data security breaches. Action sequence data such as host logs are used to investigate such threats and develop anomaly-based AI detectors. However, insider threat actions are similar to legitimate user activities, causing AI detectors to fail and suffer from high false alarm rates. Therefore, user cyber activity logs are inadequate to fully unfold insider threats. In this study, we adopt human psychological principles of risk-taking and impulsiveness along with host data to assess the influence and usefulness of human behavioral aspects in insider threat detection. Here, we hypothesize that individuals' impulsive and risk-taking behavior correlates with cyberspace activities. To validate our hypothesis, we conducted an IRB-approved study recruiting 35 participants who work in a large U.S. university and collected their cyber and psychological data for 90 days. Host and human-behavioral data analysis and mapping indicate that impulsive and risk-taking users trigger more system errors causing (un)intentional insider threats and are susceptible to attackers' social engineering and cognitive hacking. Utilizing cyber-human aspects, we introduce a Cyber-Human Graph Neural Network (GNN) based framework GraphCH to identify abnormal user behaviors and detect insider threats.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human Error Analysis for Human-Rated Space Systems

Humans bring unique capabilities to space systems and contribute to mission success in a manner that cannot be matched by machines. Nevertheless, from time to time, human error can present a threat to system performance, and system designers must anticipate and manage this risk. NASA’s Human-Rating Requirements for Space Systems call for program managers to conduct a human error analysis (HEA) during system development but does not specify how to do this. In 2018, NASA’s Engineering and Safety Center asked the authors to develop a guidance document on HEA. The resulting position paper outlines a suggested method for HEA and makes it clear that error analysis is about identifying and mitigating problems at a system level, and not about finding fault with individuals. Error management strategies must be directed at error-producing conditions, thereby reducing the likelihood of human error, while retaining the positive contribution that humans make to system operations.

human error human-rated space↗

DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 Evidence Accelerator: A parallel analysis to describe the use of Hydroxychloroquine with or without Azithromycin among hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant global threat. However, despite urgent need, there remains uncertainty surrounding best practices for pharmaceutical interventions to treat COVID-19. In particular, conflicting evidence has emerged surrounding the use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, alone or in combination, for COVID-19. The COVID-19 Evidence Accelerator convened by the Reagan-Udall Foundation for the FDA, in collaboration with Friends of Cancer Research, assembled experts from the health systems research, regulatory science, data science, and epidemiology to participate in a large parallel analysis of different data sets to further explore the effectiveness of these treatments. Methods: Electronic health record (EHR) and claims data were extracted from seven separate databases. Parallel analyses were undertaken on data extracted from each source. Each analysis examined time to mortality in hospitalized patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and the two in combination as compared to patients not treated with either drug. Cox proportional hazards models were used, and propensity score methods were undertaken to adjust for confounding. Frequencies of adverse events in each treatment group were also examined. Results: Neither hydroxychloroquine nor azithromycin, alone or in combination, were significantly associated with time to mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. No treatment groups appeared to have an elevated risk of adverse events. Conclusion: Administration of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and their combination appeared to have no effect on time to mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Continued research is needed to clarify best practices surrounding treatment of COVID-19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the compatibility of established methods with emerging artificial intelligence and machine learning methods for disaster risk analysis

Abstract There is growing interest in leveraging advanced analytics, including artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), for disaster risk analysis (RA) applications. These emerging methods offer unprecedented abilities to assess risk in settings where threats can emerge and transform quickly by relying on “learning” through datasets. There is a need to understand these emerging methods in comparison to the more established set of risk assessment methods commonly used in practice. These existing methods are generally accepted by the risk community and are grounded in use across various risk application areas. The next frontier in RA with emerging methods is to develop insights for evaluating the compatibility of those risk methods with more recent advancements in AI/ML, particularly with consideration of usefulness, trust, explainability, and other factors. This article leverages inputs from RA and AI experts to investigate the compatibility of various risk assessment methods, including both established methods and an example of a commonly used AI‐based method for disaster RA applications. This article utilizes empirical evidence from expert perspectives to support key insights on those methods and the compatibility of those methods. This article will be of interest to researchers and practitioners in risk‐analytics disciplines who leverage AI/ML methods.

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dragonstone Strategy – State of Cybersecurity in the Oil & Natural Gas Sector

The oil & natural gas (ONG) system touches every corner of the nation and increased communications & control capabilities have not only allowed for greater efficiency of system operation, but have also created a massive target for adversaries to launch cyber-attacks. Like any other heavy industrial process, the ONG system relies on a complex system of information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) devices. The current state of cyber-preparedness across the ONG industry varies from organization to organization. Among the most common challenges that ONG companies face are remote locations, longlived field assets, and lacking capabilities to find and track malware on their systems. ONG companies tend to be concerned with lack of cyber-awareness from employees, risk stemming from remote access for operations & maintenance, and software vulnerabilities within third-party equipment. Various industry and government organizations are performing research and development activities to address some of these challenges, but in many cases industry stakeholders are not aware of solutions that already exist. It is clear that a need exists for a coherent, comprehensive, multi-layered strategy for assuring the security and resilience of the nation's pipeline infrastructure against cyber threats. For a variety of reasons, the general consensus from stakeholders interviewed by LLNL is that the state of cyber-security within the electric grid is currently outpacing its ONG cousin. Existing strategies for the resilience and cyber-security of the electric grid can and should be leveraged to provide immediate benefits to the ONG system. In LLNL’s view, there are two key factors currently limiting the development of necessary cyber-practices within the ONG industry: The sheer number of differing regulatory bodies and trade groups offering both standards and best-practice recommendations for ONG cyber-security makes it difficult to create a comprehensive, directed, and coherent strategy that is applicable to all players within the ONG industry. The ONG industry is unaware of potentially useful technologies that have been developed for ensuring cyber-security of other infrastructure systems, such as the electric grid. Leveraging these technologies—and the science and engineering behind them—can provide some low-hanging fruit that can greatly improve cyber-security in the ONG industry without significant investments in terms of time and money. In the months following this report, LLNL will continue to perform outreach to key oil & gas industry stakeholders in a continual effort to identify the most pressing cyber-resilience issues in the industry. This outreach will be supplemented with LLNL’s threat intelligence capabilities to begin painting a clearer picture of the overall threat landscape faced by this sector. This assessment will be threat-informed and while the strategy itself will not be classified we will leverage intelligence analysis and adversary capabilities to identify gaps in current cybersecurity practices for oil & gas pipeline systems. Recommended efforts will be compiled into a cyber-resilience roadmap for the oil & gas pipeline sector, in which LLNL will highlight priority activities to immediately improve the state of cyber-resilience in the industry.

02 PETROLEUM↗