Statistics of the Outgoing Thermal Radiation: Comparison Between a GCM and Satellite Data
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MODTRAN climate models calibrating climate models ↗
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Experimental Aging and Lifetime Prediction in Grid Applications for Large-Format Commercial Li-Ion Batteries
Due to the growth of electric vehicle and stationary energy storage markets, the production and use of lithium-ion batteries has grown exponentially in recent years. For many of these applications, large-format lithium-ion batteries are being utilized, as large cells have less inactive material relative to their energy capacity and require fewer electrical connections to assemble into packs. And especially for stationary energy storage systems, where energy delivered is the only revenue source, the economics of these battery systems is highly dependent on cell lifetime. However, testing of large-format lithium-ion batteries is time consuming and requires high current channels and large testing chambers, making information on the performance of commercial, large-format lithium-ion batteries hard to come by. Here, accelerated aging test data from four commercial large-format lithium-ion batteries is reported. These batteries span both NMC-Gr and LFP-Gr cell chemistries, pouch and prismatic formats, and a range of cell designs with varying power capabilities. Accelerated aging test results are analyzed to examine both cell performance, in terms of efficiency and thermal response under load, as well as cell lifetime. Cell thermal response is characterized by measuring temperature during cycle aging, which is used to calculated a normalized thermal resistance value that may help estimate both cell cooling needs or to help extrapolate aging test results to different thermal environments. Cell lifetime is evaluated qualitatively, considering simply the average calendar and cycle life across a range of conditions, as well as quantitatively, using statistical modeling and machine-learning methods to identify predictive aging models from the accelerated aging data. These predictive aging models are then used to investigate cell sensitivities to stressors, such as cycling temperature, voltage window, and C-rate, as well as to predict cell lifetime in various stationary storage applications. Results from this work show that cell lifetime and sensitivity to aging conditions varies substantially across commercial cells, necessitating testing for specific cell formats to make quantitative lifetime predictions. That being said, all commercial cells tested here are predicted to reach at least 10-year lifetimes for stationary storage applications. Based on the aging test results and modeling, some cells are expected to be relatively insensitive to temperature and use-case, making them suited for simple use cases with little or no thermal management and simple controls, while the lifetime of other cells could be extended to 20+ years if operated with thermal management and degradation-aware controls.
battery↗
Photo-thermo-dissociation. I - A general mechanism for destroying molecules
Photothermodissociation (PTD) of an isolated molecule is the name of the process when a photon is absorbed by an electronic transition, the energy is transferred to the vibrations (hot molecule) and then an atom or a fragment is ejected. A statistical physics treatment is presented that goes beyond the thermal approximation and fully takes into account the isolation of the system. A model is given that permits an explicit calculation of the ejection rates of hydrogen and carbon fragments from aromatic molecules as a function of their size and internal energy. Then, the lifetime of species against PTD in different astronomical radiation fields will result when a precise dynamical evolution of their internal energy can be established.
Leger, A.↗
Assessing Heterogeneity of Surface Water Temperature Following Stream Restoration and a High-Intensity Fire from Thermal Imagery
Thermal heterogeneity of rivers is essential to support freshwater biodiversity. Salmon behaviorally thermoregulate by moving from patches of warm water to cold water. When implementing river restoration projects, it is essential to monitor changes in temperature and thermal heterogeneity through time to assess the impacts to a river’s thermal regime. Lightweight sensors that record both thermal infrared (TIR) and multispectral data carried via unoccupied aircraft systems (UASs) present an opportunity to monitor temperature variations at high spatial (<0.5 m) and temporal resolution, facilitating the detection of the small patches of varying temperatures salmon require. Here, we present methods to classify and filter visible wetted area, including a novel procedure to measure canopy cover, and extract and correct radiant surface water temperature to evaluate changes in the variability of stream temperature pre- and post-restoration followed by a high-intensity fire in a section of the river corridor of the South Fork McKenzie River, Oregon. We used a simple linear model to correct the TIR data by imaging a water bath where the temperature increased from 9.5 to 33.4 °C. The resulting model reduced the mean absolute error from 1.62 to 0.35 °C. We applied this correction to TIR-measured temperatures of wetted cells classified using NDWI imagery acquired in the field. We found warmer conditions (+2.6 °C) after restoration (p < 0.001) and median absolute deviation for pre-restoration (0.30) to be less than both that of post-restoration (0.85) and post-fire (0.79) orthomosaics. In addition, there was statistically significant evidence to support the hypothesis of shifts in temperature distributions pre- and post-restoration (KS test 2009 vs. 2019, p < 0.001, D = 0.99; KS test 2019 vs. 2021, p < 0.001, D = 0.10). Moreover, we used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that included spatial and environmental predictors (i.e., canopy cover calculated from multispectral NDVI and photogrammetrically derived digital elevation model) to model TIR temperature from a transect along the main river channel. This model explained 89% of the deviance, and the predictor variables showed statistical significance. Collectively, our study underscored the potential of a multispectral/TIR sensor to assess thermal heterogeneity in large and complex river systems.
Barker, Matthew I. (ORCID:0000000252864930)↗
3D radiated power analysis of JET SPI discharges using the Emis3D forward modeling tool
Abstract Precise values for radiated energy in tokamak disruption experiments are needed to validate disruption mitigation techniques for burning plasma tokamaks like ITER and SPARC. Control room analysis of radiated power ( P rad ) on JET assumes axisymmetry, since fitting 3D radiation structures with limited bolometry coverage is an under-determined problem. In mitigated disruptions, radiation is toroidally asymmetric and 3D, due to fast-growing 3D MHD modes and localized impurity sources. To address this problem, Emis3D adopts a physics motivated forward modeling (‘guess and check’) approach, comparing experimental bolometry data to synthetic data from user-defined radiation structures. Synthetic structures are observed with the Cherab modeling framework and a best fit chosen using a reduced χ 2 statistic. 2D tomographic inversion models are tested, as well as helical flux tubes and 3D MHD simulated structures from JOREK. Two nominally identical pure neon shattered pellet injection (SPI) mitigated discharges in JET are analyzed. 2D tomographic inversions with added toroidal freedom are the best fits in the thermal quench (TQ) and current quench (CQ). In the pre-TQ, 2D reconstructions are statistically the best fits, but are likely over-optimized and do not capture the 3D radiation structure seen in fast camera images. The next-best pre-TQ fits are helical structures that extend towards the high-field side, consistent with an impurity flow under the magnetic nozzle effect also observed in JOREK simulations. Whole-disruption radiated fractions of 0.98 + 0.03 / − 0.29 and 1.01 + 0.02 / − 0.17 are found, suggesting that the stored energy may have been fully mitigated by each SPI, although mitigation efficiencies well below ITER and SPARC requirements for high energy pulses are still within the large uncertainties. Emis3D is also used to validate JOREK SPI simulations, and confirms improvements in matching experiment from changes to impurity modeling. Time-dependent toroidal peaking factors are calculated and discussed.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Topographically Induced Thermal Effects on Lunar Hydrogen Distributions: Correlated Observations from the LRO LEND and LOLA Instruments
The question of whether water exists on the Moon's surface has long been an enigma to Lunar researchers. Largely, this was due to the thermally extreme lunar surface environment that would seem to preclude any long term maintenance, manufacture, transport or accumulation of hydrogen (H) volatiles over most of the lunar surface. As a result, for many years the cold permanent shadow regions (PSR) in the bottoms of craters near the lunar poles appeared to provide the basic conditions at least for maintenance of lunar hydrogen. Importantly, recent discoveries indicate that there is some hydrogen at the poles. However, the picture of the lunar hydrogen budget may be more complex than the PSR hypothesis has suggested. This evidence comes from observations by the Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) that inclici1te 1) some H concentrations lie outside PSR and 2) though a few of the larger PSR's have high hydrogen, PSR does not appear to be an independent factor influencing the large-scale suppression of polar epithermals observed by LEND and the Lunar Prospector Neutron Spectrometer. In this research we investigate the possibility that the thermal contrast between pole-facing and equator facing-slopes is a factor influencing the surface distributions of lunar H. We perform this bulk correlated observation and study by developing a thermal proxy from slope data of the Lunar Orbiting Laser Altimeter (LOLA) digital elevation model (DEM) which is registered with the collimated LEND epithermal map. From the LOLA transforms we impose a thermal functional decomposition and systematic statistical analysis of the LEND epithermal map. Our hypothesis testing suggests in most high latitude bands studied> +/- 45 deg: Epithermal rates in pole-facing slopes are significantly lower than epithermal rates in equivalent equator-facing slopes. As a control study, we find that there is no statistically significant difference between equivalent east and west facing slopes. This finding suggests topographic modulation of insolation is a factor influencing the lunar H budget. Importantly, this result is consistent with observations in terrestrial, Martian research.
McClanahan, T. P.↗
Polarimetric thermal emission from rough surfaces
Recent theoretical works have suggested the potential of passive polarimetry in the remote sensing of geophysical media. It was shown that the third Stokes parameter U of the thermal emission may become larger for azimuthally asymmetric fields of observation. In order to investigate the potential applicability of passive polarimetry to the remote sensing of ocean surface, measurements of the polarimetric thermal emission from a sinusoidal water surface and a numerical study of the polarimetric thermal emission from randomly rough ocean surfaces were performed. Measurements of sinusoidal water surface thermal emission were performed using a sinusoidal water surface which was created by placing a thin sheet of fiberglass with a sinusoidal profile in two dimensions extended infinitely in the third dimension onto a water surface. The theory of thermal emission from a 'two-layer' periodic surface is derived and the exact solution is performed using both the extended boundary condition method (EBC) and the method of moments (MOM). The theoretical predictions are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results once the effects of the radiometer antenna pattern are included and the contribution of background noise to the measurements is modeled. The experimental results show that the U parameter indicates the direction of periodicity of the water surface and can approach values of up to 30 K for the surface observed. Next, a numerical study of polarimetric thermal emission from randomly rough surfaces was performed. A Monte Carlo technique utilizing an exact method for calculating thermal emission was chosen for the study to avoid any of the limitations of the commonly used approximate methods in rough surface scattering. In this Monte Carlo technique, a set of finite rough surface profiles in two dimensions with desired statistics was generated and extended periodically. The polarimetric thermal emission from each surface of the set was then calculated using both the EBC and the MOM and the results were averaged. The surface statistics chosen were intended to model a wind perturbed ocean surface in the X to Ku band microwave region. The results indicate that the U parameter is sensitive to the azimuthal angle between the surface periodicity and the looking angle and to the rms height of the surface, and that the U parameter is fairly insensitive to variations in polar angle, permittivity, surface power law spectrum, and surface spectrum high frequency cutoff. These properties give further strength to the idea of using the U parameter to detect wind direction over the ocean.
Johnson, J. T.↗
Thermal and Mechanical Property Characterization of the Advanced Disk Alloy LSHR
A low solvus, high refractory (LSHR) powder metallurgy disk alloy was recently designed using experimental screening and statistical modeling of composition and processing variables on sub-scale disks to have versatile processing-property capabilities for advanced disk applications. The objective of the present study was to produce a scaled-up disk and apply varied heat treat processes to enable full-scale demonstration of LSHR properties. Scaled-up disks were produced, heat treated, sectioned, and then machined into specimens for mechanical testing. Results indicate the LSHR alloy can be processed to produce fine and coarse grain microstructures with differing combinations of strength and time-dependent mechanical properties, for application at temperatures exceeding 1300 F.
Gabb, Timothy P.↗
Investigation of Fundamental Modeling and Thermal Performance Issues for a Metallic Thermal Protection System Design
A study was performed to develop an understanding of the key factors that govern the performance of metallic thermal protection systems for reusable launch vehicles. A current advanced metallic thermal protection system (TPS) concept was systematically analyzed to discover the most important factors governing the thermal performance of metallic TPS. A large number of relevant factors that influence the thermal analysis and thermal performance of metallic TPS were identified and quantified. Detailed finite element models were developed for predicting the thermal performance of design variations of the advanced metallic TPS concept mounted on a simple, unstiffened structure. The computational models were also used, in an automated iterative procedure, for sizing the metallic TPS to maintain the structure below a specified temperature limit. A statistical sensitivity analysis method, based on orthogonal matrix techniques used in robust design, was used to quantify and rank the relative importance of the various modeling and design factors considered in this study. Results of the study indicate that radiation, even in small gaps between panels, can reduce significantly the thermal performance of metallic TPS, so that gaps should be eliminated by design if possible. Thermal performance was also shown to be sensitive to several analytical assumptions that should be chosen carefully. One of the factors that was found to have the greatest effect on thermal performance is the heat capacity of the underlying structure. Therefore the structure and TPS should be designed concurrently.
Blosser, Max L.↗
Research Symposium II
Contents include the following: High power density motors. The training process of the organization development and training office. Modeling and analysis of a regenerative fuel cell propulsion system for a high altitude long endurance. Increasing the thermal stability of aluminum titanate for solid oxide mJEL cell anodes. Microstructural evaluation of forging parameters for superalloy disks. Epoxy adgesives for stator magnet assembly in stirling radioisotope generator. Nickel-Hydrogen and lithium ion space batteries. Statistical and prediction modeling of the Ka band using experimental results from ACTS propagation terminals at 20.185 and 27.505 GHz.
Source record↗
Observations of a hard X-ray component in the spectrum of Nova Ophiuchi
The spectrum and time variation of Nova Ophiuchi (H1705-25) in the 10-200 keV range as measured by the UCSD/MIT instruments aboard HEAO 1 during the period 1977 August 25 to September 28 are reported. The composite curve is best fitted by a kT = 2 keV thin thermal bremsstrahlung model below 10 keV and a separate hard X-ray component fitted equally well by a power-law component with photon index 2.19 + or - 0.06 or a kT = 32.1 + or - 2.4 keV thermal bremsstrahlung model. This is the first observation of a hard tail in the spectrum of a transient X-ray source with sufficient statistical significance to allow a detailed study of its spectral and temporal variability. It is found that the intensity variations of the high-energy X-rays are consistent with the variability at lower energies (3-6 keV), but no hard X-ray spectral index variability is found on time scales from 2 days to 2 weeks. The results can be interpreted as due to accretion onto a neutron star (or possibly onto a black hole) that may also be surrounded by an extended corona.
Wilson, C. K.↗
On the physical state of QSO Lyman-alpha absorption clouds
Arguments are presented that QSO Lyman-alpha absorption lines might arise in denser environments than is usually thought, with a larger neutral fraction in the gas than in the usual models of rarefied intergalactic clouds, and a much smaller total mean mass density in Lyman-alpha clouds. A model is sketched in which collapse or collision of thermally unstable protogalactic clouds forms shocks which trigger the collapse of cool thin sheets. The statistical properties of absorption lines formed in this way are consistent with those of the observed Lyman-alpha forest.
Hogan, Craig J.↗
Probabilistic Thermal Analysis During Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Aerobraking
A method for performing a probabilistic thermal analysis during aerobraking has been developed. The analysis is performed on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter solar array during aerobraking. The methodology makes use of a response surface model derived from a more complex finite element thermal model of the solar array. The response surface is a quadratic equation which calculates the peak temperature for a given orbit drag pass at a specific location on the solar panel. Five different response surface equations are used, one of which predicts the overall maximum solar panel temperature, and the remaining four predict the temperatures of the solar panel thermal sensors. The variables used to define the response surface can be characterized as either environmental, material property, or modeling variables. Response surface variables are statistically varied in a Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte Carlo simulation produces mean temperatures and 3 sigma bounds as well as the probability of exceeding the designated flight allowable temperature for a given orbit. Response surface temperature predictions are compared with the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter flight temperature data.
Dec, John A.↗
Cross-correlation of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 lensing data with ACT and Planck thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect observations. I. Measurements, systematics tests, and feedback model constraints
Here we present a tomographic measurement of the cross-correlation between thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (TSZ) maps from Planck and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and weak galaxy lensing shears measured during the first three years of observations of the Dark Energy Survey. This correlation is sensitive to the thermal energy in baryons over a wide redshift range and is therefore a powerful probe of astrophysical feedback. We detect the correlation at a statistical significance of 21σ, the highest significance to date. We examine the TSZ maps for potential contaminants, including cosmic infrared background and radio sources, finding that cosmic infrared background has a substantial impact on our measurements and must be taken into account in our analysis. We use the cross-correlation measurements to test different feedback models. In particular, we model the TSZ using several different pressure profile models calibrated against hydrodynamical simulations. Our analysis marginalizes over redshift uncertainties, shear calibration biases, and intrinsic alignment effects. We also marginalize over Ω m and σ 8 using Planck or DES priors. We find that the data prefer the model with a low amplitude of the pressure profile at small scales, compatible with a scenario with strong active galactic nuclei feedback and ejection of gas from the inner part of the halos. When using a more flexible model for the shear profile, constraints are weaker, and the data cannot discriminate between different baryonic prescriptions.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Towards Quantum Computing Phase Diagrams of Gauge Theories with Thermal Pure Quantum States
The phase diagram of strong interactions in nature at finite temperature and chemical potential remains largely theoretically unexplored due to inadequacy of Monte-Carlo–based computational techniques in overcoming a sign problem. Quantum computing offers a sign-problem-free approach, but evaluating thermal expectation values is generally resource intensive on quantum computers. To facilitate thermodynamic studies of gauge theories, we propose a generalization of the thermal-pure-quantum-state formulation of statistical mechanics applied to constrained gauge-theory dynamics, and numerically demonstrate that the phase diagram of a simple low-dimensional gauge theory is robustly determined using this approach, including mapping a chiral phase transition in the model at finite temperature and chemical potential. Quantum algorithms, resource requirements, and algorithmic and hardware error analysis are further discussed to motivate future implementations. Thermal pure quantum states, therefore, may present a suitable candidate for efficient thermal simulations of gauge theories in the era of quantum computing.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Forecasting constraints on the high-z IGM thermal state from the Lyman-α forest flux autocorrelation function
ABSTRACT The autocorrelation function of the Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly $\alpha$) forest flux from high-z quasars probes the small-scale structure of the intergalactic medium (IGM). The thermal state of the IGM, determined by the physics of reionization, sets the small-scale power observed in the Ly $\alpha$ forest. To explore the sensitivity of the autocorrelation function to the IGM’s thermal state, we compute the autocorrelation function from a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation with an instantaneous reionization model and 135 post-processed thermal states. Using mock data sets of 20 quasars, we forecast constraints on $T_0$ and $\gamma$, which characterize the post-processed IGM thermal state, at $5.4 \le z \le 6$. While this model simplifies the IGM’s thermal state, it serves as a key first step in assessing future observational prospects. We also perform an inference test on mocks and re-weight out posterior distributions to guarantee that they exhibit statistically correct behaviour. At $z = 5.4$, we find that an idealized data set constrains $T_0$ to 59 per cent and $\gamma$ to 16 per cent at the 1$\sigma$ equivalent confidence level. To explore more realistic, non-instantaneous reionization scenarios, we analyse four models combining temperature and ultraviolet background (UVB) fluctuations at $z = 5.8$. We find that mock data generated from a model with both temperature and UVB fluctuations can rule out a model with only temperature fluctuations at the $> 1\sigma$ level 73.9 per cent of the time.
Wolfson, Molly↗
Quantifying Quantum Chaos through Microcanonical Distributions of Entanglement
A characteristic feature of “quantum chaotic” systems is that their eigenspectra and eigenstates display universal statistical properties described by random matrix theory (RMT). However, eigenstates of local systems also encode structure beyond RMT. To capture this feature, we introduce a framework that allows us to compare the properties of eigenstates in local systems with those of pure random states. In particular, our framework defines a notion of distance between quantum state ensembles that utilizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence to compare the microcanonical distribution of entanglement entropy (EE) of eigenstates with a reference RMT distribution generated by pure random states (with appropriate constraints). This notion gives rise to a quantitative metric for quantum chaos that not only accounts for averages of the distributions but also higher moments. The differences in moments are compared on a highly resolved scale set by the standard deviation of the RMT distribution, which is exponentially small in system size. As a result, the metric can distinguish between chaotic and integrable behaviors and, in addition, quantify and compare the of chaos (in terms of proximity to RMT behavior) between two systems that are assumed to be chaotic. We implement our framework in local, minimally structured, Floquet random circuits, as well as a canonical family of many-body Hamiltonians, the mixed-field Ising model (MFIM). Importantly, for Hamiltonian systems, we find that the reference random distribution must be appropriately constrained to incorporate the effect of energy conservation in order to describe the ensemble properties of midspectrum eigenstates. The metric captures deviations from RMT across all models and parameters, including those that have been previously identified as strongly chaotic, and for which other diagnostics of chaos such as level spacing statistics look strongly thermal. In Floquet circuits, the dominant source of deviations is the second moment of the distribution, and this persists for all system sizes. For the MFIM, we find significant variation of the KL divergence in parameter space. Notably, we find a small region where deviations from RMT are minimized, suggesting that “maximally chaotic” Hamiltonians may exist in fine-tuned pockets of parameter space. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
Physics↗
helios: An R package to process heating and cooling degrees for GCAM
helios is an open-source R package that estimates population-weighted heating and cooling degree-hours (HDH and CDH) and degree-days (HDD and CDD) at various temporal (e.g., energy dispatch segments, monthly, yearly) and spatial scales (e.g., U.S. states, global political regions, countries). The degree hour and degree day outputs from helios are used to inform electricity demand load in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) as well as in GCAM-USA (which is the version of GCAM with U.S. state-level details). helios uses a workflow with four steps: processing raw data; calculating heating and cooling degrees; visualizing performance diagnostics; and outputing results in various formats. There are two sources of widely-used climate data compatible with helios: (1) hourly climate data with 12-km resolution that are dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and projected using a thermal global warming (TGW) approach; and (2) daily climate data with 0.5-degree resolution from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) that is bias-adjusted and statistical downscaled by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). In summary, helios is a model that standardizes methodology of heating and cooling degrees-hours and degree-days using publicly available data and advance the understanding of the impact of spatial and temporal temperature variability on building energy services.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗