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At least 145 records · Page 8

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

The aggregation of simulated gridded crop yields to national or regional scale requires information on temporal and spatial patterns of crop-specific harvested areas. This analysis estimates the uncertainty of simulated gridded yield time series related to the aggregation with four different harvested area data sets. We compare aggregated yield time series from the Global Gridded Crop Model Inter-comparison project for four crop types from 14 models at global, national, and regional scale to determine aggregation-driven differences in mean yields and temporal patterns as measures of uncertainty. The quantity and spatial patterns of harvested areas differ for individual crops among the four datasets applied for the aggregation. Also simulated spatial yield patterns differ among the 14 models. These differences in harvested areas and simulated yield patterns lead to differences in aggregated productivity estimates, both in mean yield and in the temporal dynamics. Among the four investigated crops, wheat yield (17% relative difference) is most affected by the uncertainty introduced by the aggregation at the global scale. The correlation of temporal patterns of global aggregated yield time series can be as low as for soybean (r = 0.28).For the majority of countries, mean relative differences of nationally aggregated yields account for10% or less. The spatial and temporal difference can be substantial higher for individual countries. Of the top-10 crop producers, aggregated national multi-annual mean relative difference of yields can be up to 67% (maize, South Africa), 43% (wheat, Pakistan), 51% (rice, Japan), and 427% (soybean, Bolivia).Correlations of differently aggregated yield time series can be as low as r = 0.56 (maize, India), r = 0.05∗Corresponding (wheat, Russia), r = 0.13 (rice, Vietnam), and r = −0.01 (soybean, Uruguay). The aggregation to sub-national scale in comparison to country scale shows that spatial uncertainties can cancel out in countries with large harvested areas per crop type. We conclude that the aggregation uncertainty can be substantial for crop productivity and production estimations in the context of food security, impact assessment, and model evaluation exercises.

Aggregation uncertainty↗

Error reduction in laser remote sensing - Combined effects of cross correlation and signal averaging

A systematic analysis is presented of the extent to which the accuracy of a differential-absorption lidar (DIAL) measurement may be improved by using the combined effects of signal averaging and temporal cross correlation. Previous studies which considered these effects separately are extended by incorporating both effects into a single analytical framework. In addition, experimental results involving lidar returns from a diffusely reflecting target using a dual-CO2 laser DIAL system with both heterodyne and direct detection are presented. These results are shown to be in good agreement with the theoretical analysis and help establish the limits of accuracy achievable under various experimental conditions.

Menyuk, N.↗

Sunspot Pattern Classification using PCA and Neural Networks (Poster)

The sunspot classification scheme presented in this paper is considered as a 2-D classification problem on archived datasets, and is not a real-time system. As a first step, it mirrors the Zuerich/McIntosh historical classification system and reproduces classification of sunspot patterns based on preprocessing and neural net training datasets. Ultimately, the project intends to move from more rudimentary schemes, to develop spatial-temporal-spectral classes derived by correlating spatial and temporal variations in various wavelengths to the brightness fluctuation spectrum of the sun in those wavelengths. Once the approach is generalized, then the focus will naturally move from a 2-D to an n-D classification, where "n" includes time and frequency. Here, the 2-D perspective refers both to the actual SOH0 Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) images that are processed, but also refers to the fact that a 2-D matrix is created from each image during preprocessing. The 2-D matrix is the result of running Principal Component Analysis (PCA) over the selected dataset images, and the resulting matrices and their eigenvalues are the objects that are stored in a database, classified, and compared. These matrices are indexed according to the standard McIntosh classification scheme.

Rajkumar, T.↗

Tracking hurricane paths

The South East coastal region experiences hurricane threat for almost six months in every year. To improve the accuracy of hurricane forecasts, meteorologists would need the storm paths of both the present and the past. A hurricane path can be established if we could identify the correct position of the storm at different times right from its birth to the end. We propose a method based on both spatial and temporal image correlations to locate the position of a storm from satellite images. During the hurricane season, the satellite images of the Atlantic ocean near the equator are examined for the hurricane presence. This is accomplished in two steps. In the first step, only segments with more than a particular value of cloud cover are selected for analysis. Next, we apply image processing algorithms to test the presence of a hurricane eye in the segment. If the eye is found, the coordinate of the eye is recorded along with the time stamp of the segment. If the eye is not found, we examine adjacent segments for the existence of hurricane eye. It is probable that more than one hurricane eye could be found from different segments of the same period. Hence, the above process is repeated till the entire potential area for hurricane birth is exhausted. The subsequent/previous position of each hurricane eye will be searched in the appropriate adjacent segments of the next/previous period to mark the hurricane path. The temporal coherence and spatial coherence of the images are taken into account by our scheme in determining the segments and the associated periods required for analysis.

Prabhakaran, Nagarajan↗

The roles of callose, elicitors and ethylene in thigmomorphogenesis and gravitropism

A correlation (both temporal and through the inhibitor, 2-deoxy-D-glucose) of callose deposition and ethylene evolution in mechanically perturbed (MP) bean or pine stems or in gravitationally stimulated corn shoots was demonstrated. It was suggested that the callose, which is deposited on the inside of the cell wall, and adjacent to the plasma membrane causes, in some way, the ethylene production. A hypothesis explaining the mechanism is discussed which states that there is a chemical activation of the enzyme system by the callose which is being deposited in apposition with it. Experimental data supporting the hypothesis are presented.

Jaffe, M. J.↗

A Coordinated RXTE/ASCA Study of Absorption Dips in Circinus X-1 at Phase Zero

This proposal was for an Rossi X Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) study of Circinus X-1 with the ASCA satellite for the purpose of studying the iron emission feature during intensity dips. These dips had been discovered previously with ASCA and they appeared to vary in equivalent width and in the energy of the iron K edge. Proper analyses requires good continuum measurements which Rossi X Ray Timing Explorer/Proportional Counter Array (RXTE/PCA) could provide. Also, the PCA data would show any temporal evolution correlated with spectral evolution. RXTE provided 90 ks of data during March 3-5, 1998 which included phase zero which is where the dips usually take place. The ASCA observations were taken by Dr. Neil Brandt of Penn State University. Unfortunately, the source intensity showed far less dipping activity than is typical near phase zero. The light curve exhibited only very narrow sporadic dips rather than some long deep dips necessary for sufficient statistics in the ASCA and RXTE instruments for spectral studies. This prevented us from carrying out the primary goal of the proposal.

Bradt, Hale↗

A Regional CO2 Observing System Simulation Experiment Using ASCENDS Observations and WRF-STILT Footprints

Knowledge of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 is hampered by sparse measurements. The recent advent of satellite measurements of CO2 concentrations is increasing the density of measurements, and the future mission ASCENDS (Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons) will provide even greater coverage and precision. Lagrangian atmospheric transport models run backward in time can quantify surface influences ("footprints") of diverse measurement platforms and are particularly well suited for inverse estimation of regional surface CO2 fluxes at high resolution based on satellite observations. We utilize the STILT Lagrangian particle dispersion model, driven by WRF meteorological fields at 40-km resolution, in a Bayesian synthesis inversion approach to quantify the ability of ASCENDS column CO2 observations to constrain fluxes at high resolution. This study focuses on land-based biospheric fluxes, whose uncertainties are especially large, in a domain encompassing North America. We present results based on realistic input fields for 2007. Pseudo-observation random errors are estimated from backscatter and optical depth measured by the CALIPSO satellite. We estimate a priori flux uncertainties based on output from the CASA-GFED (v.3) biosphere model and make simple assumptions about spatial and temporal error correlations. WRF-STILT footprints are convolved with candidate vertical weighting functions for ASCENDS. We find that at a horizontal flux resolution of 1 degree x 1 degree, ASCENDS observations are potentially able to reduce average weekly flux uncertainties by 0-8% in July, and 0-0.5% in January (assuming an error of 0.5 ppm at the Railroad Valley reference site). Aggregated to coarser resolutions, e.g. 5 degrees x 5 degrees, the uncertainty reductions are larger and more similar to those estimated in previous satellite data observing system simulation experiments.

Wang, James S.↗

A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc.), especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated) where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax) as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982-2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation) and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation). Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2-4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread increases in pasture productivity over the last 30 years.

ecosystems↗

Assimilation of SMAP and ASCAT Soil Moisture Retrievals into the JULES Land Surface Model Using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter

A land data assimilation system is developed to merge satellite soil moisture retrievals into the Joint U.K. Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). The system assimilates microwave soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) radiometer and the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) after bias correction based on cumulative distribution function fitting. The soil moisture assimilation estimates are evaluated with ground-based soil moisture measurements over the continental U.S. for five consecutive warm seasons (May–September of 2015–2019). The result shows that both SMAP and ASCAT retrievals improve the accuracy of soil moisture estimates. Especially, the SMAP single-sensor assimilation experiment shows the best performance with the increase of temporal anomaly correlation by ΔR ~ 0.05 for surface soil moisture and ΔR ~ 0.03 for root-zone soil moisture compared with the LSM simulation without satellite data assimilation. SMAP assimilation is more skillful than ASCAT assimilation primarily because of the greater skill of the assimilated SMAP retrievals compared to the ASCAT retrievals. The skill improvement also depends significantly on the region; the higher skill improvement in the western U.S. compared to the eastern U.S. is explained by the Kalman gain in the two experiments. Additionally, the regional skill differences in the single-sensor assimilation experiments are attributed to the number of assimilated observations. Finally, the soil moisture assimilation estimates provide more realistic land surface information than model-only simulations for the 2015 and the 2016 western U.S. droughts, suggesting the advantage of using satellite soil moisture retrievals in the current drought monitoring system.

SMAP↗

An Initial Assessment of a SMAP Soil Moisture Disaggregation Scheme Using TIR Surface Evaporation Data over the Continental United States

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is dedicated toward global soil moisture mapping. Typically, an L-band microwave radiometer has spatial resolution on the order of 36-40 km, which is too coarse for many specific hydro-meteorological and agricultural applications. With the failure of the SMAP active radar within three months of becoming operational, an intermediate (9-km) and finer (3-km) scale soil moisture product solely from the SMAP mission is no longer possible. Therefore, the focus of this study is a disaggregation of the 36-km resolution SMAP passive-only surface soil moisture (SSM) using the Soil Evaporative Efficiency (SEE) approach to spatial scales of 3-km and 9-km. The SEE was computed using thermal-infrared (TIR) estimation of surface evaporation over Continental U.S. (CONUS). The disaggregation results were compared with the 3 months of SMAP-Active (SMAP-A) and Active/Passive (AP) products, while comparisons with SMAP-Enhanced (SMAP-E), SMAP-Passive (SMAP-P), as well as with more than 180 Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) stations across CONUS were performed for a 19 month period. At the 9-km spatial scale, the TIR-Downscaled data correlated strongly with the SMAP-E SSM both spatially (r = 0.90) and temporally (r = 0.87). In comparison with SCAN observations, overall correlations of 0.49 and 0.47; bias of −0.022 and −0.019 and unbiased RMSD of 0.105 and 0.100 were found for SMAP-E and TIR-Downscaled SSM across the Continental U.S., respectively. At 3-km scale, TIR-Downscaled and SMAP-A had a mean temporal correlation of only 0.27. In terms of gain statistics, the highest percentage of SCAN sites with positive gains (>55%) was observed with the TIR-Downscaled SSM at 9-km. Overall, the TIR-based downscaled SSM showed strong correspondence with SMAP-E; compared to SCAN, and overall both SMAP-E and TIR-Downscaled performed similarly, however, gain statistics show that TIR-Downscaled SSM slightly outperformed SMAP-E.

Disaggregation↗

The discrete correlation function: A new method for analyzing unevenly sampled variability data

A method of measuring correlation functions without interpolating in the temporal domain, the discrete correlation function, is introduced. It provides an assumption-free representation of the correlation measured in the data, and allows meaningful error estimates. This method does not produce spurious correlations at zero lag due to correlated errors. It is shown that physical interpretation of active galactic nuclei cross-correlation functions requires knowledge of the input function's fluctuation power spectrum, involves model-dependence in the form of symmetry assumptions, and must take into account intrinsic scale bias. This technique was used to find a correlation in published IUE data for NGC 4151, which indicates that the broad C IV feature emanates from a shell 15 to 75 light-days in radius, assuming spherical symmetry.

Edelson, R. A.↗

Time-Resolved PIV for Space-Time Correlations in Hot Jets

Temporally Resolved Particle Image Velocimetry (TR-PIV) is being used to characterize the decay of turbulence in jet flows a critical element for understanding the acoustic properties of the flow. A TR-PIV system, developed in-house at the NASA Glenn Research Center, is capable of acquiring planar PIV image frame pairs at up to 10 kHz. The data reported here were collected at Mach numbers of 0.5 and 0.9 and at temperature ratios of 0.89 and 1.76. The field of view of the TR-PIV system covered 6 nozzle diameters along the lip line of the 50.8 mm diameter jet. The cold flow data at Mach 0.5 were compared with hotwire anemometry measurements in order to validate the new TR-PIV technique. The axial turbulence profiles measured across the shear layer using TR-PIV were thinner than those measured using hotwire anemometry and remained centered along the nozzle lip line. The collected TR-PIV data illustrate the differences in the single point statistical flow properties of cold and hot jet flows. The planar, time-resolved velocity records were then used to compute two-point space-time correlations of the flow at the Mach 0.9 flow condition. The TR-PIV results show that there are differences in the convective velocity and growth rate of the turbulent structures between cold and hot flows at the same Mach number.

Wernet, Mark P.↗

Time Resolved PIV for Space-Time Correlations in Hot Jets

Temporally Resolved Particle Image Velocimetry (TR-PIV) is the newest and most exciting tool recently developed to support our continuing efforts to characterize and improve our understanding of the decay of turbulence in jet flows -- a critical element for understanding the acoustic properties of the flow. A new TR-PIV system has been developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center which is capable of acquiring planar PIV image frame pairs at up to 25 kHz. The data reported here were collected at Mach numbers of 0.5 and 0.9 and at temperature ratios of 0.89 and 1.76. The field of view of the TR-PIV system covered 6 nozzle diameters along the lip line of the 50.8 mm diameter jet. The cold flow data at Mach 0.5 were compared with hotwire anemometry measurements in order to validate the new TR-PIV technique. The axial turbulence profiles measured across the shear layer using TR-PIV were thinner than those measured using hotwire anemometry and remained centered along the nozzle lip line. The collected TR-PIV data illustrate the differences in the single point statistical flow properties of cold and hot jet flows. The planar, time-resolved velocity records were then used to compute two-point space-time correlations of the flow at the Mach 0.9 flow condition. The TR-PIV results show that there are differences in the convective velocity and growth rate of the turbulent structures between cold and hot flows at the same Mach number

Wernet, Mark P.↗

The impulsive phase of a large solar limb flare of June 20, 1989

On June 20, 1989 we observed in H-alpha the impulsive phase of a 3B/X 1.6 limb flare with high temporal resolution. Line profiles have been acquired every 2.3 s with an imaging spectrograph. During the eruption of a filament, we observed in H-alpha a moving plasma blob from what we believe to be a second loop which correlated spatially and temporally with a microwave source at 1.4 GHz observed by VLA. A magnetodynamic model is used to understand the development of the moving plasma blob.

Graeter, Martin↗

Effect of Temperature on Jet Velocity Spectra

Statistical jet noise prediction codes that accurately predict spectral directivity for both cold and hot jets are highly sought both in industry and academia. Their formulation, whether based upon manipulations of the Navier-Stokes equations or upon heuristic arguments, require substantial experimental observation of jet turbulence statistics. Unfortunately, the statistics of most interest involve the space-time correlation of flow quantities, especially velocity. Until the last 10 years, all turbulence statistics were made with single-point probes, such as hotwires or laser Doppler anemometry. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) brought many new insights with its ability to measure velocity fields over large regions of jets simultaneously; however, it could not measure velocity at rates higher than a few fields per second, making it unsuitable for obtaining temporal spectra and correlations. The development of time-resolved PIV, herein called TR-PIV, has removed this limitation, enabling measurement of velocity fields at high resolution in both space and time. In this paper, ground-breaking results from the application of TR-PIV to single-flow hot jets are used to explore the impact of heat on turbulent statistics of interest to jet noise models. First, a brief summary of validation studies is reported, undertaken to show that the new technique produces the same trusted results as hotwire at cold, low-speed jets. Second, velocity spectra from cold and hot jets are compared to see the effect of heat on the spectra. It is seen that heated jets possess 10 percent more turbulence intensity compared to the unheated jets with the same velocity. The spectral shapes, when normalized using Strouhal scaling, are insensitive to temperature if the stream-wise location is normalized relative to the potential core length. Similarly, second order velocity correlations, of interest in modeling of jet noise sources, are also insensitive to temperature as well.

Bridges, James E.↗

Offset Stream Technology Test-Summary of Results

Statistical jet noise prediction codes that accurately predict spectral directivity for both cold and hot jets are highly sought both in industry and academia. Their formulation, whether based upon manipulations of the Navier-Stokes equations or upon heuristic arguments, require substantial experimental observation of jet turbulence statistics. Unfortunately, the statistics of most interest involve the space-time correlation of flow quantities, especially velocity. Until the last 10 years, all turbulence statistics were made with single-point probes, such as hotwires or laser Doppler anemometry. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) brought many new insights with its ability to measure velocity fields over large regions of jets simultaneously; however, it could not measure velocity at rates higher than a few fields per second, making it unsuitable for obtaining temporal spectra and correlations. The development of time-resolved PIV, herein called TR-PIV, has removed this limitation, enabling measurement of velocity fields at high resolution in both space and time. In this paper, ground-breaking results from the application of TR-PIV to single-flow hot jets are used to explore the impact of heat on turbulent statistics of interest to jet noise models. First, a brief summary of validation studies is reported, undertaken to show that the new technique produces the same trusted results as hotwire at cold, low-speed jets. Second, velocity spectra from cold and hot jets are compared to see the effect of heat on the spectra. It is seen that heated jets possess 10 percent more turbulence intensity compared to the unheated jets with the same velocity. The spectral shapes, when normalized using Strouhal scaling, are insensitive to temperature if the stream-wise location is normalized relative to the potential core length. Similarly, second order velocity correlations, of interest in modeling of jet noise sources, are also insensitive to temperature as well.

Brown, Clifford A.↗

Advances in gamma-ray burst astronomy

The paper reviews the current status of observational research into the highly puzzling problem of cosmic gamma-ray bursts. Up to now there is no convincing temporal or spatial correlation with any known celestial processes or objects. The typical burst source strength is somewhere between 10 to the 26th power ergs and 10 to the 52nd power ergs. A list of 39 confirmed and 9 unconfirmed cosmic gamma-ray bursts observed by satellite is given, showing times of occurrence and in some cases, the size in erg per square centimeter. Several approaches to the problem of source object identification are discussed: (1) accumulation of observation statistics with their present poor resolution and research for correlative phenomena, (2) mapping out celestial source distributions with moderate resolution in order to search for galactic or other anisotropies in direction or to look for repeating source regions, and (3) very high-accuracy localization of the source directions of one or several bursts in order to pinpoint a tiny fraction of the celestial sphere for correlative radio, optical and X-ray studies. Planned future instrumentation for deep space probes and multiple-balloon studies is described.

Cline, T. L.↗