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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Predictability experiments using a low order empirically corrected dynamical model

It is generally accepted that day to day weather variations possess a finite range of predictability estimated to be approximately two weeks (e.g., Lorenz, 1965). However, considerable observational evidence points to the existence of a number of low frequency flow regimes which are potentially predictable beyond this limit. These include blocking events and teleconnection patterns such as those described in Wallace and Gutzler (1981). The problem of the predictability of such modes is addressed by employing a highly simplified dynamical model projected onto the modes of interest. These modes are computed from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of 10-day averaged anomalies (deviations from the mean seasonal cycle) of the 500 mb stream function for the winters of 1967-76. The first three EOF's are associated with an index cycle and some of the teleconnection patterns. The fourth and ninth are related to North Pacific and North Atlantic blocking, respectively.

Schubert, S.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The role of barotropic oscillations within atmospheres of highly variable refractive index

Among the various energy transfer mechanisms that might be relevant for teleconnections between tropical and higher latitudes, Rossby wave propagation is certainly one of the most important. In view of this, it is of interest to understand how the propagation of Rossby waves might be affected by ambient flows which locally may be unable to sustain oscillations due to vorticity gradients. This concept is re-examined based on the observation that there are large areas over the Pacific where the upper tropospheric absolute vorticity and its horizontal gradient are small. These key areas for teleconnections might be suspected to be unfavorable to the local propagation of Rossby waves. Results of integrations of the barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere are presented to show the role that regions with small absolute vorticity gradient play in this problem. Implications regarding the maintenance of blocks and the influence of divergent effects are also addressed.

Paegle, J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Planetary Scale Interactions

Atmospheric teleconnections in the medium to long (10-90 days) time scales focusing on the interactions between extratropical circulation and tropical convection are studied. In a continuing effort to study short-term climate variability and atmospheric teleconnection as inferred from satellite observed outgoing longwave radiation, the low frequency variability (LFB) of tropical and extratropical cloud fluctuation over the Pacific was studied. It was found that during the Northern winter, the LFV of tropical cloud fluctuation is dominated by a 40-50 day dipole-like oscillation linking convection over Indonesia and the equatorial central Pacific. Eastward propagating signals appearing as outbursts of convective cloud clusters originating from the Indian Ocean appear to periodically feed energy into this dipole oscillation. It was also found that there are cloud features appearing over East Asia and subsequently over the eastern North Pacific which vary coherently with the tropical dipole anomaly. Based on analysis and an a priori phenomenological model, it is believed that the cloud fluctuations are associated with two space/time extended normal modes of tropical-extratropical interactions over the Pacific involving a coupling between the tropical dipole convective heating anomaly with cold surges over East Asia, and blocking over the eastern North Pacific respectively.

Lau, W. K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns

The seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability in the low-frequency atmospheric circulation were studied using orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) of Northern Hemisphere 1-month mean 700 mb heights. The twice-daily data for the 1950-1984 period were used. Winter results are similar to those of other recent RPCA and teleconnection studies. The strongest summer pattern is the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is also the strongest winter pattern; it systematically contracts northward in summer and expands southward in winter, being the only pattern found for every month of the year. The robustness of the RPCA results was examined through consistency with results of other studies and of adjacent month solutions within this study, as well as by replicating the results using 3-month and 10-day means of 700-mb height. It is concluded that the RPCA method provides a physically meaningful and statistically stable product with the simplicity of teleconnection patterns but with superior pattern choice and depiction.

Barnston, Anthony G.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Potential vorticity index

Using standard data analysis techniques, researchers explore the links between disturbance growth and quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (PV) gradients; appearance and disappearance of cutoff lows and blocking highs and their relation to a zonal index (properly defined in terms of PV); and teleconnections between different flow patterns and their relation to the zonal index. It was found that the PV index and the eddy index correlate better than a zonal index (defined by zonal wind) and the eddy index. In the frequency domain there are three frequencies (.03, .07 and .17 cpd (cycle per day) corresponding to periods of 33, 14 and 6 days) at which PV index and the eddy index exhibit local maxima. The high correlation found at periods of 33 days is mainly due to eddy activity at high latitudes while the local correlation maxima found at the shorter periods are mainly due mid-latitude eddy activity. The correlation between the PV index and the geopotential height anomaly at 500 mb, at each grid point in the Northern Hemisphere, shows the existence of most of the teleconnection patterns summarized by Wallace and Gutzler (1981): the North Atlantic Oscillation, the North Pacific Oscillation, and the Pacific/North American patterns. Results show that the Isentropic Potential Vorticity (IPV) analysis can be a very useful and powerful tool when used to understand the dynamics of several large scale atmospheric systems. Although the data are limited to only one winter, and it is difficult to assess the statistical significance of the correlation coefficients presented here, the results are encouraging from physical viewpoint.

Barcilon, Albert↗
NASA NTRS1993

Spatial correlations of interdecadal variation in global surface temperatures

We have analyzed spatial correlation patterns of interdecadal global surface temperature variability from an empirical perspective. Using multitaper coherence estimates from 140-yr records, we find that correlations between hemispheres are significant at about 95 percent confidence for nonrandomness for most of the frequency band in the 0.06-0.24 cyc/yr range. Coherence estimates of pairs of 100-yr grid-point temperature data series near 5-yr period reveal teleconnection patterns consistent with known patterns of ENSO variability. Significant correlated variability is observed near 15 year period, with the dominant teleconnection pattern largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Peak-to-peak Delta-T is at about 0.5 deg, with simultaneous warming and cooling of discrete patches on the earth's surface. A global average of this pattern would largely cancel.

Mann, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2001

Impacts of ENSO on the South American Summer Monsoon During 1997-1999

Using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis, and CPC Merged Analysis Product (CMAP) rainfall, we have compared and contrasted the anomalies of the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) during two extreme years of 1997/98 (EI Nino) and 1998/99 (La Nina). The results are assessed against a "canonical" ENSO response (CER) pattern for the SASM obtained from empirical mode decomposition based on a previous period (1980-1995). Overall, the SASM anomalies compare well with CER, but with some important differences. Anomalies occurring in the warm phase of the 1997-98 El Nino are very significant and robust, while those occurring in 1998/99 La Nina, appear to be reversed from 1997/98, but are relatively weak and less well-defined. The most pronounced signal in DJF 1997/98 is the development of drought conditions in northern Brazil, excessive rainfall over northern Peru and Ecuador, and over Uruguay and southern Brazil. The tropical rainfall anomalies are associated with the eastward shift of the Walker circulation, which is represented by pronounced low-level anomalous westerlies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and easterlies over northern Brazil. The easterlies are deflected sharply southeastward by the steep topography of the Andes, enhancing the low-level jet (LLJ) along the eastern foothills of the Andes near 15-20 S. The LLJ penetrates deep into the extratropics, yielding rainfall anomalies further poleward compared to CER. During DJF 1997/98, the eastward expansion of the warm tropospheric temperature over the Nino-3 region causes anomalous geopotential height to develop in the upper troposphere above the Altiplano, leading to a strengthened Bolivian High. An upper-tropospheric jet anomaly maximum is found over the subtropical continent near 30 S, due to increasing meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature, as well as teleconnection patterns linking the South Pacific and the South Atlantic. Consistent with the CER, the South Pacific High is weakened, and the South Atlantic High is strengthened in DJF 1997/98. However, rather than appearing as a coherent large scale signal over the entire Atlantic as in CER, the South Atlantic High anomalies in DJF 1997/98 split into two separate high pressure centers; one located south of the Amazon basin, and another over the southeastern South Atlantic. The former is induced as a Rossby-wave response by ENSO-Induced sinking motion over nor-them and eastern Brazil, and the latter may be associated with extratropical teleconnection signals. Anomalous convection observed over equatorial western Africa may also have contributed to the different circulation response over the Atlantic in DFJ 1997/99 compared to the CER. Comparison of the evolution of the SASM anomalies in 1997-99 with their corresponding annual cycles, suggest that the anomalies are phase-locked to and represent either enhancement or reduction of the annual variations. Results suggest that, from a system perspective the SASM was strengthened during the 1997/98 El Nino and weakened, albeit to a lesser extent, during the 1998/99 La Nina.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Modeling and Observational Study of the Global Atmospheric Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Anomalies

A combined observational and modeling study considers the linkage between Antarctic sea ice and the climate of non-local latitudes. The observational component is based upon analyses of monthly station observations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis (NNR). The modeling component consists of simulations of the NCAR Community Climate Model versions 2 (CCM2) and 3 (CCM3) and the recent Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2). A convenient mechanism for communication between the Antarctic region (particularly the Ross Sea area) and the tropics and Northern Hemisphere is examined. The first evidence of this teleconnection came from CCM2 simulations performed during an earlier NASA supported project. Annual-cycle simulations with and without Antarctic sea ice show statistically- significant responses in monsoon precipitation over central and northern China during the month of September. The changes in monsoon precipitation are physically consistent with an intensified southwest Pacific (Northern Hemisphere) subtropical high in response to all Antarctic sea ice being removed and replaced with open water at -1.9"C. The intensified high is the northernmost component of three primary anomalies. The southernmost anomaly includes the Ross Sea area, where sea ice has been removed. An earlier study by Peng and Domros had also found a link between Antarctic sea ice and the East Asian monsoon circulation. The current project has helped to understand the teleconnection.

Bromwich, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS)

Prediction of climate relies on models, and better model prediction depends on good model physics. Improving model physics requires the maximal utilization of climate data of the past, present and future. CEOP provides the first example of a comprehensive, integrated global and regional data set, consisting of globally gridded data, reference site in-situ observations, model location time series (MOLTS), and integrated satellite data for a two-year period covering two complete annual cycles of 2003-2004. The monsoon regions are the most important socio-economically in terms of devastation by floods and droughts, and potential impacts from climate change md fluctuatinns nf the hydrologic cyc!e. Scientifically, it is most challenging, because of complex interactions of atmosphere, land and oceans, local vs. remote forcings in contributing to climate variability and change in the region. Given that many common features, and physical teleconnection exist among different monsoon regions, an international research focus on monsoon must be coordinated and sustained. Current models of the monsoon are grossly inadequate for regional predictions. For improvement, models must be confronted with relevant observations, and model physic developers must be made to be aware of the wealth of information from existing climate data, field measurements, and satellite data that can be used to improve models. Model transferability studles must be conducted. CIMS is a major initiative under CEOP to engage the modeling and the observational communities to join in a coordinated effort to study the monsoons. The objectives of CIMS are (a) To provide a better understanding of fundamental physical processes (diurnal cycle, annual cycle, and intraseasonal oscillations) in monsoon regions around the world and (b) To demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. In this talk, I will present the basic concepts of CIMS and the key scientific problems facing monsoon climates and provide examples of common monsoon features, and possible monsoon induced teleconnections linking different parts of the world.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Effects of Aerosol on Atmospheric Dynamics and Hydrologic Processes during Boreal Spring and Summer

Global and regional climate impacts of present-day aerosol loading during boreal spring are investigated using the NASA finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM). Three-dimensional distributions of loadings of five species of tropospheric aerosols, i.e., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt are prescribed from outputs of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol loadings are used to calculate the extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor at eleven spectral wavelengths in the radiative transfer code. We find that aerosol-radiative forcing during boreal spring excites a wavetrain-like pattern in tropospheric temperature and geopotential height that emanates from Northern Africa, through Eurasia, to northeastern Pacific. Associated with the teleconnection is strong surface cooling over regions with large aerosol loading, i.e., China, India, and Africa. Low-to-mid tropospheric heating due to shortwave absorption is found in regions with large loading of dust (Northern Africa, and central East Asia), and black carbon (South and East Asia). In addition pronounced surface cooling is found over the Caspian Sea and warming over Eurasian and northeastern Asia, where aerosol loadings are relatively low. These warming and cooling are components of teleconnection pattern produced primarily by atmospheric heating from absorbing aerosols, i.e., dust from North Africa and.black carbon from South and East Asia. Effects of aerosols on atmospheric hydrologic cycle in the Asian monsoon region are also investigated. Results show that absorbing aerosols, i.e., black carbon and dust, induce large-scale upper-level heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau in April and May, ushering in an early onset of the Indian summer monsoon. Absorbing aerosols also enhance lower-level heating and anomalous ascent over northern India, intensifying the Indian monsoon. Overall, the aerosol-induced large-scale surface temperature cooling leads to a reduction of monsoon rainfall over the East Asia continent, and adjacent oceanic regions.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Effects of Aerosol on Atmospheric Dynamics and Hydrologic Processes During Boreal Spring and Summer

Global and regional climate impacts of present-day aerosol loading during boreal spring are investigated using the NASA finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM). Three-dimensional distributions of loadings of five species of tropospheric aerosols, i.e., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt are prescribed from outputs of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol loadings are used to calculate the extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor at eleven spectral wavelengths in the radiative transfer code. We find that aerosol-radiative forcing during boreal spring excites a wavetrain-like pattern in tropospheric temperature and geopotential height that emanates from Northern Africa, through Eurasia, to northeastern Pacific. Associated with the teleconnection is strong surface cooling over regions with large aerosol loading, i.e., China, India, and Africa. Low-to-mid tropospheric heating due to shortwave absorption is found in regions with large loading of dust (Northern Africa, and central East Asia), and black carbon (South and East Asia). In addition pronounced surface cooling is found over the Caspian Sea and warming over Eurasian and northeastern Asia, where aerosol loadings are relatively low. These warming and cooling are components of teleconnection pattern produced primarily by atmospheric heating from absorbing aerosols, i.e., dust from North Africa and black carbon from South and East Asia. Effects of aerosols on atmospheric hydrologic cycle in the Asian monsoon region are also investigated. Results show that absorbing aerosols, i.e., black carbon and dust, induce large-scale upper-level heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau in April and May, ushering in an early onset of the Indian summer monsoon. Absorbing aerosols also enhance lower-level heating and anomalous ascent over northern India, intensifying the Indian monsoon. Overall, the aerosol-induced large-scale surface tempera- cooling leads to a reduction of monsoon rainfall over the East Asia continent, and adjacent oceanic regions.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Cooperative satellite-based flood detection, mapping, and river monitoring in near real time

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) combine to influence the planetary wave structure over the northern hemisphere. Floods and droughts are associated around the world with ENSO through such teleconnections, and improved flood prediction relies on understanding them better. The scientific study of floods, and consistent measurements thereof, are needed in order to allow 'Greenhouse warming' predictions about flooding to be tested, and the hydrologic effects of other phenomena such as ENSO to be evaluated. The needed tasks are: 1) detection/warning of flooding, 2) flood magnitude assessment, 3) flood inundation mapping, and 4) preservation of the record of flooding. Accomplishing these same tasks provides direct local societal benefits as well: they can save lives and reduce economic loss. We emphasize that the basic science observations need not be divorced from the immediate practical applications: both can occur together, and just as is the case for meteorological remote sensing.

Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses: Pacific Pan-Decadal Variability - Part 2

The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. In this study, we show that one of several PDV interdecadal regime shifts occurred during the 1990s. This significant change in the Pacific basin is comparable but opposite in phase to the 1976 climate regime shift, which results persisting warming in the central-eastern Pacific, and cooling in the North and South Pacific. The 1990s PDV regime shift is consistent with observed changes in ocean biosphere and ocean circulation. A comprehensive picture of PDV as manifested in the troposphere and at the surface is described. In general, the PDV spatial patterns in different parameter fields share some similarities with the patterns associated with ENSO, but important differences exist. First, the PDV atmospheric circulation pattern is shifted westward by about 20deg and its zonal extent is limited to approx.60deg compared to approx.110deg for ENS0 pattern. The westward shift of the PDV wave train produces a different, more west-east oriented, North American teleconnection pattern. The lack of a strong PDV surface temperature (ST) signal in the western equatorial Pacific and the relatively strong ST signal in the subtropical regions are consistent with an atmospheric overturning circulation response that differs from the one associated with ENSO.

Chen, Junye↗
NASA NTRS2013

Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events to Modeled SSTs and Future Climate Forcings

Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. Under present-day climate conditions, WPEN events generate poleward propagating wavetrains and enhance midlatitude planetary wave activity, weakening the stratospheric polar vortices. The late 21st century extratropical atmospheric response to WPEN events is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), version 2. GEOSCCM simulations are forced by projected late 21st century concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by SSTs and sea ice concentrations from an existing ocean-atmosphere simulation. Despite known ocean-atmosphere model biases, the prescribed SST fields represent a best estimate of the structure of late 21st century WPEN events. The future Arctic vortex response is qualitatively similar to that observed in recent decades but is weaker in late winter. This response reflects the weaker SST forcing in the Nino 3.4 region and subsequently weaker Northern Hemisphere tropospheric teleconnections. The Antarctic stratosphere does not respond to WPEN events in a future climate, reflecting a change in tropospheric teleconnections: The meridional wavetrain weakens while a more zonal wavetrain originates near Australia. Sensitivity simulations show that a strong poleward wavetrain response to WPEN requires a strengthening and southeastward extension of the South Pacific Convergence Zone; this feature is not captured by the late 21st century modeled SSTs. Expected future increases in GHGs and decreases in ODSs do not affect the polar stratospheric responses to WPEN.

stratosphere↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of the Warmest Arctic Winter, 2015-2016

December through February 2015-2016 defines the warmest winter season over the Arctic in the observational record. Positive 2m temperature anomalies were focused over regions of reduced sea ice cover in the Kara and Barents Seas and southwestern Alaska. A third region is found over the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean. The period is marked by a strong synoptic pattern which produced melting temperatures in close proximity to the North Pole in late December and anomalous high pressure near the Taymyr Peninsula. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Atlantic contributed to warming over Eurasian high-latitude land surfaces, and El Niño-related teleconnections explain warming over southwestern Alaska and British Columbia, while warm anomalies over the central Arctic are associated with physical processes including the presence of enhanced atmospheric water vapor and an increased downwelling longwave radiative flux. Preconditioning of sea ice conditions by warm temperatures affected the ensuing spring extent.

Barents and Kara Seas↗
NASA NTRS2020

Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River–Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State

Transient, narrow plumes of strong water vapor transport, referred to as Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the United States. Along the coast of Oregon and Washington, the most intense cool season precipitation events are almost always induced by an AR and can result in detrimental impacts on society due to mudslides and flooding. It is therefore important to understand the large scale influence on extreme AR events so that they can be accurately predicted on timescales ranging from numerical weather prediction to seasonal forecasts. Here, characteristics of ARs that result in observed extreme precipitation events are compared to typical ARs on the coast of Washington State using data from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2. In addition to more intense water vapor transport, notable differences in the synoptic scale forcing are present during extreme precipitation events that are not present during typical AR events. In particular, an anomalously deep low pressure system is stationed to the west in the Gulf of Alaska, alongside a jet streak overhead. Attention will also be given to subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns that are known to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. While little influence can be seen from the phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Pacific North American Pattern, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) can play a role in determining the strength of precipitation associated with in AR on the Washington Coast. Lastly, interactions between the MJO and other teleconnection patterns will be explored to determine key features that should be investigated when making subseasonal predictions for AR activity and the associated precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.

Collow, Allison↗
NASA NTRS2023

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

SST↗