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At least 145 records · Page 8

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

TCO Analysis Approach and Regional Analysis of dWPT for Class 8 Tractors

Dynamic Wireless Power Transfer (dWPT) is a method by which battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can charge their battery while traveling on the road without the need for a physical conductive connection to the power source. dWPT has been proposed as a strategy to enable a reduction in vehicle battery capacity and associated mass and cost. In this slide deck presented at the EVs@Scale Consortium - Wireless Power Transfer Pillar Deep-Dive Meeting on November 11th, 2023, NREL provides results from an evaluation of dWPT using data from Class 8 tractors driving in the Atlanta Metro Area. NREL selected data for archetypal days representing local, regional, and long-haul trips, defined according to trip length, that included travel on primary roadways. EVI-InMotion (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - InMotion), a systems planning and optimization tool developed at NREL, was used to evaluate dWPT performance assuming dWPT charging on 120 road segments for a total roadway lane distance of 2,365 miles. The EVI-InMotion results and representative day drive cycles were analyzed with NREL's T3CO (Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership) tool to estimate the total cost of ownership (TCO) for scenarios comprising two model years - 2030 and 2040 - and two technology progress cases. TCO was calculated for diesel, fuel cell electric, BEVs with batteries sized assuming no dWPT capabilities, and 200kWh BEVs with dWPT installed. This analysis finds that en-route stationary charging frequency and downtime when not on electrified roadways are the main contributors to TCO for the dWPT vehicles and that these vehicles can achieve cost parity with FCEVs at low electricity costs. Based on the scenario assumptions used here, low electricity costs would further help the cost parity with diesel vehicles in regional and long-haul cases due to stationary fueling downtime. This presentation also concludes that key factors affecting the parity potential of dWPT-capable vehicles include more extensive dWPT road coverage, higher en-route charging power, less expensive power batteries, and higher hydrogen or diesel fuel costs.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Modeling Methods for Capturing System Interactions of Combined Technologies: A Study of PV + Battery

The costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) have been dropping in recent years, leading to increasing installations of solar PV systems and growing interest in how the technology will impact the electric grid at higher penetrations. Additionally, as battery costs decline it becomes important to understand the benefits and limitations of battery storage for the grid as well as potential benefits of co-locating battery storage and PV, particularly within the realm of future system planning. However, it is non-trivial to capture these potential benefits within a linearized capacity expansion model (CEM). This paper presents methodological developments to more fully represent the value and limitations of coupled PV and battery systems (PV + Battery) in CEMs using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), which co-optimizes capacity investments, transmission investments, and reduced-order dispatch in the Western Interconnection of North America through 2045. We use the model to simulate the evolution of the generation and transmission system under two core scenarios - a baseline scenario and a high renewable penetration scenario - coupled with sensitivities assuming low and midline PV and battery cost projections. When incorporating PV + battery, we find that it is important for CEMs to capture the ability of the coupled technology to provide firm capacity and reduce expected curtailment, compared to independent systems. These interactions can have even more dramatic impacts at higher solar penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An Interpretable Planning Bot for Pancreas Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

Pancreas stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) treatment planning requires planners to make sequential, time-consuming interactions with the treatment planning system to reach the optimal dose distribution. We sought to develop a reinforcement learning (RL)–based planning bot to systematically address complex tradeoffs and achieve high plan quality consistently and efficiently.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Strategies for Continuous Balancing in Future Power Systems with High Wind and Solar Shares

The use of wind power has grown strongly in recent years and is expected to continue to increase in the coming decades. Solar power is also expected to increase significantly. In a power system, a continuous balance is maintained between total production and demand. This balancing is currently mainly managed with conventional power plants, but with larger amounts of wind and solar power, other sources will also be needed. Interesting possibilities include continuous control of wind and solar power, battery storage, electric vehicles, hydrogen production, and other demand resources with flexibility potential. The aim of this article is to describe and compare the different challenges and future possibilities in six systems concerning how to keep a continuous balance in the future with significantly larger amounts of variable renewable power production. A realistic understanding of how these systems plan to handle continuous balancing is central to effectively develop a carbon-dioxide-free electricity system of the future. The systems included in the overview are the Nordic synchronous area, the island of Ireland, the Iberian Peninsula, Texas (ERCOT), the central European system, and Great Britain.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Hybrid Dynamic/Steady-State Tool With Protection Simulation for Cascading-Outage Analysis of Extreme Events in Power Systems

The bulk electric power grid is subject to vulnerabilities from component outages, which in certain combinations (extreme events) might lead to cascading outages. Some of these outages can be severe enough to trigger brownouts and blackouts. Much is known about mitigating the first few failures near the beginning of a cascade, but there are few established methods and tools for directly analyzing the risks of cascading component outages over a longer time scale. Current power system tools have limited ability to perform detailed and accurate cascading-outage analysis, which could be computationally intensive. The Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) enables power system planning engineers to more realistically assess the consequences of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT has several unique features: (i) detailed hybrid dynamic and steady-state analysis of power systems to mimic real-world cascading outages, (ii) detailed modeling of protection systems embedded in the dynamic simulation, (iii) simulation of corrective action after transients, (iv) simulation of islanding , and (v) high-performance computing capability to simulate a large number of contingencies in a reasonable time. DCAT outputs will help find technically sound solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages. This paper provides details of DCAT methodology and shows its capabilities with extreme events on real-world cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Cost of Floating Offshore Wind Energy in California Between 2019 and 2032

California’s energy planning is centered around meeting the emissions reduction and renewable energy requirements of Senate Bill 350 by 2030. However, state power system planning is expected to eventually address California’s requirement to achieve 100% of total retail electricity sales from renewable energy and zero-carbon resources by 2045, as mandated by Senate Bill 100. To comply with these directives, California needs to investigate the further development of energy efficiency, storage, and a diverse range of renewable energy, zero-carbon emission, and transmission resources, including offshore wind. Wind resources off the coast of California have the potential to generate a significant portion of the state’s electric energy as it moves toward a zero-carbon economy and can help diversify its energy mix. Floating offshore wind technology, which is suitable for the deep waters along the California coast, is currently in a precommercial phase, with approximately 84 megawatts (MW) installed worldwide at the end of 2019. Globally there are over 7,000 MW in planning and permitting phases of development, with the first commercial-scale projects expected to be operational in 2024. This study provides site-specific cost and performance data for floating offshore wind to inform California’s long-term energy planning. The identification of new resources to meet California’s policy goals at least cost is part of the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process, which is coordinated by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). In 2019–2020 IRP modeling, offshore wind was included for the first time as a candidate resource in some sensitivity cases (CPUC 2019). The data and information presented in this report can be used to update offshore wind inputs in future IRP cycles. The authors conducted a geospatial cost analysis over portions of the offshore wind resource area of California. The analyzed spatial domain includes sites with a mean wind speed of at least 7 meters per second and water depths between 40 meters (m) and 1,300 m. Costs and energy production vary across this analysis domain. We calculated these parameters on a grid layout with over 750 sites, with each site representing a 1,000-MW commercial offshore wind power plant. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated at each site over the analysis domain. The resulting variation in LCOE across the analysis domain is illustrated through heat maps in this report. Five study areas were selected within the analysis domain where more detailed cost analysis was conducted and cost parameters, such as annual energy production, capital cost expenditures (CapEx), operational cost expenditures (OpEx), and net capacity factors are reported. These five study areas include Morro Bay, Diablo Canyon, Humboldt, Cape Mendocino and Del Norte.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

10 MWE CDCL Large Pilot Plant – pre-FEED Study

Coal Direct Chemical Looping (CDCL) is an advanced oxy-combustion technology that has the potential to substantially reduce the energy penalty and the cost of electricity (COE) for coal-fired power generation with CO₂ capture. The Babcock & Wilcox Company (B&W) and The Ohio State University (OSU) have been collaborating on the development of an iron oxide oxygen-carrier based chemical looping technology for clean power generation with inherent carbon capture. In this process, coal is dried and pulverized prior to being transported into a moving-bed reducer. In the reducer, coal reacts with the oxygen-carrier particles, forming combustion byproducts, predominantly CO₂ and H₂O, while reducing the iron oxide oxidation state from Fe₂O₃ to a mixture of FeO and Fe. The reduced state particles are then transported to a combustor reactor and re-oxidized with air. Following the oxidation, the oxygen-carrier particles are regenerated, and a large amount of heat is released for steam production. The produced steam is sent to a turbine for electricity generation. Meanwhile, the CO₂–rich stream leaving the reducer is cooled, cleaned, and compressed for subsequent pipeline transportation and sequestration. By combining air separation and fuel conversion into a single system, the CDCL technology enables the intensification of oxy-combustion processes by eliminating the energy and cost intensive cryogenic air separation unit and thereby results in higher overall plant efficiencies and lower COE’s. The use of a moving-bed reducer results in high conversions of volatile hydrocarbons and high CO₂ purity, which reduces the cost of downstream CO₂ purification for sequestration or utilization. The Babcock & Wilcox Company in collaboration with The Ohio State University, Johnson & Matthey, The Electric Power Research Institute, and Dover Light & Power completed a Preliminary Front-End Engineering and Design (Pre-FEED) study of a 10 MWe coal-direct chemical looping (CDCL) pilot plant. The planned system is a modular 10 MWe CDCL large pilot facility consisting in 4 modules of 2.5 MWe each, working in parallel and to be hosted within the current structure at the City of Dover’s Municipal Power Plant. The CDCL system can achieve auto-thermal operation and includes a sub-critical steam cycle for power generation. The pilot system was designed to demonstrate full commercial operation at a reduced scale. The coal distribution per plan area is a representative slice of larger commercial arrangements. The system includes a CO₂ recycle system, but it does not include a compression system. The large pilot includes all the environmental control equipment and oxygen carrier and ash handling systems. As part of the project, the Team performed laboratory testing and carried out multiple pilot test campaigns to obtain design and performance information at the 250 kWth CDCL pilot facility at the Babcock & Wilcox Company’s Research Center. The Team demonstrated sustained operations at designed coal inputs, high coal conversion, high CO₂ purity, heat generation on the combustor, low carbon carryover between reactors and low particle attrition. Emissions generated in the reducer reactor were identified as SO₂ and NO x . The commercial manufacturing cost of oxygen carrier particle was evaluated by JM. A particle manufacturing report was generated and submitted to the DOE. Based on the results from the pilot tests and the pre-FEED design efforts, a techno-economic analysis was performed. The study shows that the CDCL process is a promising carbon-friendly technology capable of producing electricity with high efficiency. The estimated COE of the supercritical CDCL plant is $83.3 / MWh, which meets DOE’s target of less than 30% increase in COE when compared to a supercritical PC plant without CO₂ capture. This is the lowest among the existing carbon capture technologies (post-combustion and oxy-combustion) for fossil fuel power plant. CDCL is evaluated to be the most promising technology for carbon capture from the economic aspect.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Integrated Energy Systems Program Management Plan

In 2012, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) initiated the Nuclear Energy Enabling Technology Program, which includes the Crosscutting Technology Development (CTD) portfolio of subprograms, to conduct research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) to support existing, new and advanced reactor designs and fuel cycle technologies. This program plan describes the Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program, an element of the CTD portfolio since 2016 that seeks to improve the economic competitiveness, efficiency and environmental performance of nuclear energy systems by expanding their potential application space beyond electricity and optimizing their utilization in the context of the larger U.S. electric and non-electric energy system.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Quantitative Metrics for Grid Resilience Evaluation and Optimization

Power system resilience has become a critical topic in recent years because of the increasing trend of extreme events and the growing integration of intermittent renewable energy sources. To enhance grid resilience against high-impact, low-frequency events, two questions should be answered: how to quantify the resilience of a given grid and how to incorporate the quantification into power system planning, operation, and restoration. Here this paper develops a new set of quantitative metrics with clear physical interpretation to comprehensively evaluate power system resilience. Using microgrids as an example, an event-based corrective scheduling (ECS) model and an online model predictive control (OMPC) model are developed to integrate the proposed quantitative resilience metrics into power system optimization models for resilience enhancement. The ECS model employs extreme event data to investigate the optimal restoration solution and to help microgrid operators prepare to respond to similar events. The OMPC model provides online decision-making support for operators to handle ongoing outages in the most resilient fashion. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed quantitative resilience metrics and the resilience enhancement models are demonstrated through simulations and comparative studies on an IEEE test feeder and a real distribution feeder in Southern California.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Documentation for Python Automation in CYME for DER Hosting Capacity Analysis of Different Feeder Configurations

This file provides the documentation for several Python scripts that were developed by Sandia National Laboratories to enhance the automation and customization capabilities for performing various distribution system planning and analysis tasks in CYME. Specifically, these scripts (.py files detailed in Figure 1) enable the user to evaluate different distribution system configurations and the resulting impacts on hosting capacity results and other metrics. In general, these scripts—and the accompanying documentation—provide the foundation upon which future customized tools can be created. For example, the scripts show how to extract and modify parameters of various circuit components, set up and run analyses using built-in CYME tools (iteratively), and export reports for further evaluations and comparisons. Thus, the capabilities and syntaxes used in the scripts can be adapted and leveraged for countless other objectives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Exploring sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region

South America has abundant natural water and energy resources, and exploiting these resources to achieve a clean energy future is central to the continent’s economic and sustainable development objectives for the next several decades. Designing pathways to achieving this clean energy future requires better understanding the structural, techno-economic, and policy forces that may influence the future development of the electricity sector in the region. Here, we focus on an interconnected electricity system of five South American countries – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay – which represent major electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics in the region. We explore the implications of various forces that could shape the future composition of the power sector in the sub-region, including: evolving renewable energy cost and performance, natural gas prices, cross-border interconnection facilities, early retirement of installed hydropower, and different decarbonization goals. We use a model framework based on a power system planning platform (GridPath) to co-optimize investment and operations of generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results in a Reference scenario indicate that the electricity system can maintain a relatively clean energy portfolio by leveraging existing hydropower capacity and integrating increasingly cost-competitive wind and solar power. However, dependence on natural gas in the region is likely to remain high. A low-carbon electricity system can cost-effectively be achieved through policy interventions (e.g., renewable portfolio standards) and by diversifying investments in wind, solar, battery storage, and some new hydropower capacity. We also find that existing hydropower is critical for maintaining reliable future grid operations. Enhanced regional electricity trade, mostly based on existing interconnection capacities with nominal investment in new transmission, can significantly benefit the clean energy transition in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A control-inspired approach for energy transition planning under uncertainty

As the global carbon footprint continues to grow, many countries are implementing carbon emission reduction policies which have incentivized the expansion of low-carbon and renewable technologies. However, the speed and scale of deployment falls short of that needed to meet climate goals. Energy system models serve as key tools for guiding investment decisions and helping policymakers evaluate the effects of various policies on the development of an energy system. This study focuses on the energy system of the United States and builds upon prior work by incorporating more geographic granularity to account for the trade of commodities and addresses transmission congestion through electricity price adjustments. Furthermore, real-world characteristics, such as delays in constructing new liquid fuel production and electricity generation facilities, are integrated using a sequential decision-making approach that better reflects how decisions can be updated as uncertainties unfold. Results demonstrate that stochastic programming combined with sequential decision-making produces energy transition pathways that are robust to multiple uncertain futures. Additionally, considering real-world characteristics significantly impacts the deployment of renewable technologies and the ability to meet carbon emission reduction goals while also reliably meeting demand. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty and real-world characteristics to avoid overly optimistic projections in energy system planning.

energy systems↗

Opportunities for Integrating Electric and Gas Planning

Growing demand for electricity in buildings is creating new opportunities and challenges for electric and natural gas planning. To date, electric and gas planning processes have largely been siloed, and only a few jurisdictions have started to examine how these two processes could be linked together. The report explores the current state of electric and gas system planning, and the benefits and challenges of integrating these planning processes. We frame the characteristics of an integrated electric and gas distribution planning process and identify indicators of progress toward the characteristics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Into the Grid: Key Issues

To foster sustainable, low-emission development, many countries are establishing ambitious renewable energy targets for their electricity supply. The variability of solar and wind compared to traditional sources, coupled with growing demand for electricity, requires changes to power system planning and operations to meet these targets. Grid integration is the practice of developing efficient ways to deliver variable renewable energy (VRE), primarily wind and solar, to the grid. Good integration methods maximize the cost-effectiveness of incorporating VRE while maintaining or increasing system stability and reliability. To inform decarbonization strategies, policymakers, regulators, and system operators consider a variety of costs and opportunities associated with VRE integration, which can be organized into five topics: New renewable energy generation and transmission; Power system reliability; Transmission and distribution coordination; Cross-sectoral decarbonization opportunities; Energy equity and justice.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

U.S. Department of Energy-National Lab Equity Summit: Grid Planning and Operations (Workshop Report)

This report summarizes the U.S. DOE and national laboratories equity summit that was held on February 5, 2024, and focused on grid planning and operations. The objectives of the summit were to connect DOE and lab researchers working on grid-related equity issues, share information on current and planned grid-related equity projects and initiatives, and inspire and educate participants by hearing from our panelists about solutions and challenges to integrating equity in grid planning and operations. The summit included two panels of industry leaders. The first was a state and community perspectives panel that included representatives from a state public utility commission (Oregon Public Utility Commission), a state energy office (Washington Department of Commerce), a state utility consumer advocate (Connecticut Consumer Counsel), and industry consultants (Elevated Engagement and ArkSpring Consulting). Panelists shared successes they have seen, critical challenges related to equity and grid planning and operations, and other considerations. The second panel addressed utility perspectives and included representatives from two utilities (Commonwealth Edison and Tacoma Power), the National Rural Electric Cooperative (NRECA), and a former utility employee and legal consultant. Panelists discussed the role of the utility concerning equity, the most significant technical and data modeling needs and opportunities, and the role the labs could help advance equity in grid planning and operations. There was also a session on partner organization presentations. Argonne National Laboratory made a short presentation on the Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) project they are leading on equity-informed power system planning. NARUC, NASEO, and the Clean Energy States Alliance, as partners of the GMLC project also shared updates on relevant activities and resources. During the summit, there were two rounds of lightning presentations by national labs and DOE highlighting research that addresses equity and grid planning and operations (Tables 5 and 6 and slides in the Appendix). The goal of the lightning rounds was to share information between participants to encourage collaboration and leverage ongoing research at labs and DOE. The summit included two interactive exercises where summit participants shared their perspectives on relevant equity projects and initiatives (Table 2), key challenges regarding equity and grid planning and operations (Table 3), and promising innovations or progress (Table 4). At the end of the session, participants were asked to share essential insights from the event (Table 7) and an action they plan to take as a result of the event. Participants agreed that the event was useful in helping them share and learn from each other. The project team plans to use the information from the summit as a starting point to help inform future research and technical assistance. In 2026, another Equity Summit will be held (virtually or in person) as part of the same project to help raise awareness and disseminate research and resources completed during the project's duration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Role of Electric Vehicles in the U.S. Power Sector Transition: A System-Level Perspective

After over a century of petroleum dominance many anticipate that electrification could disrupt the transportation energy landscape. At the same time, the electric power systems are undergoing profound changes: variable renewables are displacing conventional generation sources; distributed generation is disrupting utility business models; energy storage and other new technologies are emerging; and the traditional system based on the premise that generation is dispatched to match an inelastic demand is evolving to create a system with greater participation in power system planning and operations from traditionally passive consumers. In this context, it is important to understand how transportation electrification will impact electricity demand and in turn electricity supply, including changes in the load shapes that characterize the system and the opportunity to leverage flexible electric vehicle (EV) charging to better integrate demand and supply. Assessing the impacts of electrification on the energy system requires an understanding of how it might impact the amount and shape of electricity consumption, and how this electricity can be supplied. In particular, increased adoption of electric vehicles introduces a new source of demand altogether, potentially very flexible. Moreover, electrification could shift the consumption of natural gas between sectors, thereby affecting the economics for natural gas-fired generation relative to other electricity generation options. Several factors will impact the evolution of the power system under a widespread electrified future, which, in turn, could have far-reaching effects on future energy costs and emissions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Multi-service battery energy storage system optimization and control

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) have become fundamental part of modern power systems due to their capability to provide multiple grid services. As the renewable penetration increases, BESS procurement is also expected to increase where it is envisioned to play a systematic and strategical role in power systems planning and operation. Hence, in this paper we present a multiple grid service procurement and operation for BESS - ranging from energy arbitrage, reserve/regulation services, power factor correction, and demand management. The proposed framework considers an optimal multi-temporal dimension, designed to be operable for both planning and real-time operation. Moreover, non-linearity inherent to BESS services and uncertainty associated to market forecasts variables are addressed using techniques such as polyhedral norms and robust optimization approaches. Here, the developed model is tested using a utility-scaled BESS and the obtained results show the effectiveness of the systematic BESS multi-service planning and operation approach.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗