The particle track record of the Ocean of Storms
Solar and galactic iron group cosmic ray track distributions in Apollo 12 lunar rocks, investigating surface residence times
Comstock, G. M.↗
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Total Lightning as a Severe Weather Diagnostic in Strongly Baroclinic Systems in Central Florida
The establishment of a consistent behavior of total lightning activity in severe convective storms has been challenged historically by the relative scarcity of these storms combined with the difficulties inherent in documenting the (dominant) intracloud component of total lightning. This situation has changed recently with the abundance of severe weather in central Florida during 1997-98, including the tornado outbreak of February 23, 1998, and with the development of the operational LISDAD system (Boldi et al, this conference) to document these cases. This paper is concerned primarily with the behavior of total lightning in severe weather during the dry season when the Florida atmosphere is most strongly baroclinic. It has been found that all three manifestations of severe weather (ie., hall, wind, tornadoes) are consistently preceded by rapid increases in total flash rate with values often in excess of 100 flashes/minute. Preliminary analysis suggests that this systematic electrical behavior observed in summertime 'pulse severe' storms (Hodanish et al, this conference) also pertains to the more strongly baroclinic, long-track tornadic storms (more common in Oklahoma), as evidenced by the February 23, 1998 outbreak case in central Florida exhibiting two long-tracking F3 tornadoes. The largest flash rates in severe weather anywhere occur in baroclinic conditions at midlatitude. The physical plausibility of flash rates in excess of 100 per minute will be assessed. We will also consider the differences in storm structure for high flash rate storms that are non-severe.
Williams, E.↗
The North Alabama Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring Network (STORMnet)
The Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring network (STORMnet) became operational in 2001 as a test bed to infuse new science and technologies into the severe and hazardous weather forecasting and warning process. STORMnet is collaboration among NASA scientists, National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, emergency managers and other partners. STORMnet integrates total lightning observations from a ten-station 3-D VHF regional lightning mapping array, the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), real-time regional NEXRAD Doppler radar, satellite visible and infrared imagers, and a mobile atmospheric profiling system to characterize storms and their evolution. The storm characteristics and life-cycle trending are accomplished in real-time through the second generation Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display (LISDAD II), a distributed processing system with a JAVA-based display application that allows anyone, anywhere to track individual storm histories within the Tennessee Valley region of north Alabama and Tennessee, a region of the southeastern U.S. well known for abundant severe weather.
Goodman, S. J.↗
Spectral Irradiance Measurements of Simulated Lightning in Planetary Atmospheres
Optical emissions from lightning provide information to estimate the altitude, latitude and longitude of lightning storms, the energy of the discharges, and the production of important trace species such as HCN and C2H2. Knowledge of the spectra of planetary lightning is needed to deduce the total energy dissipated by lightning (and thereby, the production of trace gases) and to help design experiments to detect and track lightning storms. Measurements of the spectral irradiance from approximately 380 to 820 nm are reported for laboratory simulations of lightning in the atmospheres of Venus, Jupiter, and Titan. In our laboratory, laser-induced plasmas (LIP) are used to simulate lightning discharges. This technique avoids contamination of the spectra by elect-ode material and maintains a safe environment while allowing the use of flammable gases, such as hydrogen and methane, found in outer planet atmospheres. The observations were made at I and 5 bars pressure for Venus and Jupiter and at 1 bar for the Titan mixture. At a pressure of one bar, our results show prominent lines from H(sub alpha), H(sub beta), H(sub gamma), and H(sub delta) lines of the Balmer Series of atomic hydrogen, a single line from Helium at 588 nm and strong continuum radiation. At pressures of 5 bars, the H(sub alpha) and H(sub beta) lines are wider, the H(sub gamma), and H(sub delta) lines merge into the continuum because of pressure broadening, and the helium line at 588 nm is no longer visible. The observed spectra of simulated lightning in the venusian atmosphere at 1 and 5 bars shows that the OI multiplet at 777.7 nm dominates the spectra, but weak features due to atomic carbon and singly excited and singly ionized oxygen atoms are also visible. Although lightning has not yet been observed on Titan, it conceivable that some form of lightning discharge could be occurring. Therefore experiments on a Titan atmosphere mixture were conducted. The most prominent features seen in the simulated spectra are the H(sub alpha) at 656 nm. from the dissociation of the methane and two strong features at 740 and 820 nm from singly excited nitrogen atoms. Most of the features between 400 and 656 nm are due to ionized nitrogen atoms. A broad, highly structured feature centered near 389 nm is molecular band radiation from CN molecules formed in the cooling plasma of atomic nitrogen, carbon, and hydrogen. It is observed in the lightning simulations of both the venusian and Titan atmospheres, For Venus, Jupiter, and Titan, narrow spectral features that are ideal for detecting lightning in the presence of sunlight are present in the spectra. These features could allow lightning to be detected and tracked by Earth-based instruments.
Borucki, W. J.↗
The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array: Recent Results and Future Prospects
The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array became operational in November 2001 as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technologies into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather and the warning decision-making process. The LMA project is a collaboration among NASA scientists, National Weather Service (NWS) weather forecast offices (WFOs), emergency managers, and other partners. The time rate-of-change of storm characteristics and life-cycle trending are accomplished in real-time through the second generation Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (LISDAD II) system, initially developed in T997 through a collaboration among NASA/MSFC, MIT/Lincoln Lab and the Melbourne, FL WFO. LISDAD II is now a distributed decision support system with a JAVA-based display application that allows anyone, anywhere to track individual storm histories within the Tennessee Valley region of the southeastern U.S. Since the inauguration of the LMA there has been an abundance of severe weather. During 23-24 November 2001, a major tornado outbreak was monitored by LMA in its first data acquisition effort (36 tornadoes in Alabama). Since that time the LMA has collected a vast amount of data on hailstorms and damaging wind events, non-tornadic supercells, and ordinary non-severe thunderstorms. In this paper we provide an overview of LMA observations and discuss future prospects for improving the short-term forecasting of convective weather.
Goodman, S. J.↗
Space-Based Sentinels for Measurement of Infrared Cooling in the Thermosphere for Space Weather Nowcasting
Infrared radiative cooling by nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) modulates the thermosphere’s density and thermal response to geomagnetic storms. Satellite tracking and collision avoidance planning require accurate density forecasts during these events. Over the past several years, failed density forecasts have been tied to the onset of rapid and significant cooling due to production of NO and its associated radiative cooling via emission of infrared radiation at 5.3 μm. These results have been diagnosed, after the fact, through analyses of measurements of infrared cooling made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument now in orbit over 16 years on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. Radiative cooling rates for NO and CO2 have been further shown to be directly correlated with composition and exospheric temperature changes during geomagnetic storms. These results strongly suggest that a network of smallsats observing the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere could serve as space weather sentinels. These sentinels would observe and provide radiative cooling rate data in real time to generate nowcasts of density and aerodynamic drag on space vehicles. Currently, radiative cooling is not directly considered in operational space weather forecast models. In addition, recent research has shown that different geomagnetic storm types generate substantially different infrared radiative response, and hence, substantially different thermospheric density response. The ability to identify these storms, and to measure and predict the Earth’s response to them, should enable substantial improvement in thermospheric density forecasts.
Mlynczak, Martin G.↗
UAS Applications for Hurricane Science, Hurrican and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3)
Earth Science Industry Update: UAS Applications for Hurricane Science Unmanned systems can significantly transform hurricane observations and monitoring, improving our knowledge about and ability to forecast storm formation, track, and intensity change. NASA's use of the Global Hawk has demonstrated the scientific value of this platform and provided a proof-of-concept for operational applications. However, science flight operations face several challenges and constraints. In this session, learn about how NASA adapted the Global Hawk to do science; How NASA conducts its hurricane missions, and some of the challenges and constraints they face; Science results from NASA's recent hurricane field campaigns using the Global Hawk. How assimilation of dropsonde and radar data into weather prediction models may improve forecast accuracy; Other Earth science problems that could be addressed with Global Hawks.
Hurricane Science↗
Elliptical storm cell modeling of digital radar data
A model for spatial distributions of reflectivity in storm cells was fitted to digital radar data. The data were taken with a modified WSR-57 weather radar with 2.6-km resolution. The data consisted of modified B-scan records on magnetic tape of storm cells tracked at 0 deg elevation for several hours. The MIT L-band radar with 0.8-km resolution produced cross-section data on several cells at 1/2 deg elevation intervals. The model developed uses ellipses for contours of constant effective-reflectivity factor Z with constant orientation and eccentricity within a horizontal cell cross section at a given time and elevation. The centers of the ellipses are assumed to be uniformly spaced on a straight line, with areas linearly related to log Z. All cross sections are similar at different heights (except for cell tops, bottoms, and splitting cells), especially for the highest reflectivities; wind shear causes some translation and rotation between levels. Goodness-of-fit measures and parameters of interest for 204 ellipses are considered.
Altman, F. J.↗
Use of Remote Sensing Data to Enhance NWS Storm Damage Toolkit
In the wake of a natural disaster such as a tornado, the National Weather Service (NWS) is required to provide a very detailed and timely storm damage assessment to local, state and federal homeland security officials. The Post ]Storm Data Acquisition (PSDA) procedure involves the acquisition and assembly of highly perishable data necessary for accurate post ]event analysis and potential integration into a geographic information system (GIS) available to its end users and associated decision makers. Information gained from the process also enables the NWS to increase its knowledge of extreme events, learn how to better use existing equipment, improve NWS warning programs, and provide accurate storm intensity and damage information to the news media and academia. To help collect and manage all of this information, forecasters in NWS Southern Region are currently developing a Storm Damage Assessment Toolkit (SDAT), which incorporates GIS ]capable phones and laptops into the PSDA process by tagging damage photography, location, and storm damage details with GPS coordinates for aggregation within the GIS database. However, this tool alone does not fully integrate radar and ground based storm damage reports nor does it help to identify undetected storm damage regions. In many cases, information on storm damage location (beginning and ending points, swath width, etc.) from ground surveys is incomplete or difficult to obtain. Geographic factors (terrain and limited roads in rural areas), manpower limitations, and other logistical constraints often prevent the gathering of a comprehensive picture of tornado or hail damage, and may allow damage regions to go undetected. Molthan et al. (2011) have shown that high resolution satellite data can provide additional valuable information on storm damage tracks to augment this database. This paper presents initial development to integrate satellitederived damage track information into the SDAT for near real ]time use by forecasters and decision makers.
Jedlove, Gary J.↗
A View from Above: Earth Observations
Since the 1960s, satellites have been looking down at the Earth to monitor weather patterns and track severe storms, observe how our land surface is changing and responding to hydrometerological extremes, and even to sense how the Earth's crust is deforming from earthquakes and volcanoes. Space and airborne platforms can provide unique views of the disaster lifecycle, informing pre-event mitigation and preparedness, emergency response following an event, and monitoring longer-term recovery. These remotely-sensed data, products and models can provide a global perspective to see beyond administrative boundaries, reach remote places where in situ observations are di cult or non-existent, and provide the necessary context and situational awareness to aid in disaster response. So how do these platforms work? Instruments aboard satellites use different portions of the electromagnetic spectrum to passively or actively observe energy across a range of wavelengths, which can be turned into meaningful data on geophysical, atmospheric, and hydrological variables. e US has had a broad range of Earth observation (EO) platforms delivering open data for scientific research and societal benefits for decades. e Landsat programme, a joint initiative between the US Geological Survey (USGS) and NASA, has the world's longest continuous collection of space-based satellite imagery of the Earth, extending from 1972 to present. e Landsat satellites provide visible, near infrared, and thermal data that are used to support emergency response and disaster relief by mapping changes in water during floods, and dramatic land surface changes, including those resulting from landslides, wild res, severe weather, volcanic plumes, and dust storms.
FEMA↗
The Impact of Upper Tropospheric Humidity from Microwave Limb Sounder on the Midlatitude Greenhouse Effect
This paper presents an analysis of upper tropospheric humidity, as measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder, and the impact of the humidity on the greenhouse effect in the midlatitudes.
upper↗
Sun-Earth Day - Teaching Heliophysics Through Education Technology
Sun-Earth Day (SED) is an Education and Outreach program supported by the U.S, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The intent of the program is to teach students and the general public about Heliophysics (the science of the study of the Sun, how it varies, and how solar dynamics affect the rest of the solar system, especially the Earth). The program was begun ten years ago. Each year since that time a particular day has been designated as "Sun-Earth Day ,,. Usually the day of the spring equinox (March 20 or 21) is Sun-Earth Day, but other days have been used as well. Each year a theme is chosen relating to Heliophysics and events reflecting that theme are planned not only for Sun-Earth Day, but for the entire year. From the very beginning educational technology was emphasized in the events in order to effectively reach wide audiences with the SED message. The main approach has been to have a "webcast" related to each year's theme, often from a location that supports the theme as well. For example, a webcast took place from the Mayan pyramids at Chichen Itza, Mexico to highlight the theme of "Ancient Observatories, Timeless Knowledge". Webcasts were not the only technology employed, however. Many of the themes centered on the dynamic nature of the Sun and the effects that solar storms can have on interplanetary space and in our day-to-day life on Earth. Activities for tracking when solar storms happen and how they affect the Earth were developed and brought together in an educational package called Space Weather Action Centers. This project is explained in more detail in another presentation in this session being given by Norma Teresinha Oliveira Reis. Recent Sun-Earth Days have utilized "social networking" technologies to reach widespread groups on the internet. Podcasts, Vodcasts, Facebook, Twitter, and Second Life are the types of network technologies being employed now. The NASA Distance learning Network is another method for bringing Sun-Earth Day events and training to widespread educators and classrooms in order to magnify the reach of Sun-Earth Day. Examples of the technologies will be shown along with an assessment of their effectiveness.
Thieman, J.↗
Detection Of Tornado Damage Tracks With EOS Data
The damage surveys conducted by the NWS in the aftermath of a reported tornadic event are used to document the location of the tornado ground damage track (path length and width) and an estimation of the tornado intensity. This study explored the possibility of using near real-time medium and high-resolution satellite imagery from the NASA EOS satellites to provide additional information for the surveys. MODIS and ASTER data were used to study the damage tracks from three tornadic storms; the La Plata, Maryland storm of 28 April 2002 and the Carter-Butler Counties and Madison County Missouri storms of 24 April 2002. These storms varied in intensity (from F0-F4) and occurred over regions with different land use. It was found that, depending on the nature of land use, tornado damage tracks from intense storms (F2 or greater) may be evident in both ASTER and MODIS satellite imagery. In areas of dense vegetation the scar patterns show up very clearly, while in areas of grassland and regions with few trees, scar patterns are not at all obvious in the satellite imagery. The detection of previously unidentified segments of a damage track caused by the 24 April 2004 Madison County, Missouri tornado demonstrates the utility of satellite imagery for damage surveys. However, the capability to detect tornado tracks in satellite imagery appears to be as much dependent on the nature of the underlying surface and land use as on the severity of the tornadic storm. The imaging sensors on the NPOESS operational satellites to be launched in 2006 will continue the unique observing capabilities of the EOS instruments.
Jedlovec, Gary J.↗
Pulsing Inertial Oscillation, Supercell Storms, and Surface Mesonetwork Data
The pulsing inertial oscillation (PIO) model is a nonlinear, time-dependent, translating vortex solution of the inviscid, compressible fluid dynamic equations in the middle troposphere. The translation of this vortex during a pulse is strikingly similar to that of a supercell storm -- a rotating thunderstorm that can generate tornadoes and hail. Two studies were performed to test the hypothesis that some supercell storms are manifestations of a PIO pulse. The first study applied the model to an intense interior draft whose buoyancy was bounded by a temperature excess of +/- 12 K. The peak updraft speed achieved was 41.5 m/ s and the peak Rossby number was 92.9. The study also pointed to an advanced concept for attaining higher values. The second study applied the PIO model to a supercell storm as a whole and succeeded in replicating its bulk properties, such as mesocyclonic circulation, net mass and moisture influxes, and time track. This study also identified a critical feature of the PIO model that could be tested against storm data: The average vertical draft is downward before the turn in the storm track and upward afterwards. In the conventional theory, the average vertical draft is upward from storm inception until dissipation. These differing draft predictions were compared with the best available data, which are surface mesonetwork data. These data were found to support the PIO model. However, surface data alone are not conclusive, and further measurements are warranted.
Costen, R. C.↗
Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico
Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons, it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the estimated time it will take the storm to reach the rig location from the time it is first detected. The objective of this study is to use 50 years of cyclone history from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) database, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity lies within the forecasted track cone and storm size of the upcoming cyclone. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. In addition, the tool allows the user to input any T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.
Offshore Oil Drilling↗
Diagnosing the severe thunderstorm environment by mesoscale cloud tracking - A new approach and new information
A new method for cloud tracking and observing storm development using satellite imagery in a cloud relative mode is presented. This method changes the analyst's function to one of monitoring cloud growth and changes over a finite time period and identifying portions of the cloud that are suitable for use as trackers. It is shown how many problems previously encountered by meteorologists in mesoscale cloud tracking can be overcome by using the cloud relative technique to determine mesoscale flow fields whose heights are determined using stereographic techniques. By separating growth and decay from cloud motion in a cumulus field using the method and accurately defining cloud heights, vertical wind shears within mesoscale domains may be defined. When this information is used to study the relative velocity of flows at different levels with respect to a developing or mature storm, improved insight into storm behavior can be achieved.
Purdom, J. F. W.↗
Procedures for minimizing the effects of high solar activity on satellite tracking and ephemeris generation
We are currently experiencing a period of high solar radiation combined with wide short-term fluctuations in the radiation. The short-term fluctuations, especially when combined with highly energetic solar flares, can adversely affect the mission of U.S. Space Command's Space Surveillance Center (SSC) which catalogs and tracks the satellites in orbit around the Earth. Rapidly increasing levels of solar electromagnetic and/or particle radiation (solar wind) causes atmospheric warming, which, in turn, causes the upper-most portions of the atmosphere to expand outward, into the regime of low altitude satellites. The increased drag on satellites from this expansion can cause large, unmodeled, in-track displacements, thus undermining the SSC's ability to track and predict satellite position. On 13 March 1989, high solar radiation levels, combined with a high-energy solar flare, caused an exceptional amount of short-term atmospheric warming. The SSC temporarily lost track of over 1300 low altitude satellites--nearly half of the low altitude satellite population. Observational data on satellites that became lost during the days following the 13 March 'solar event' was analyzed and compared with the satellites' last element set prior to the event (referred to as a geomagnetic storm because of the large increase in magnetic flux in the upper atmosphere). The analysis led to a set of procedures for reducing the impact of future geomagnetic storms. These procedures adjust selected software limit parameters in the differential correction of element sets and in the observation association process and must be manually initiated at the onset of a geomagnetic storm. Sensor tasking procedures must be adjusted to ensure that a minimum of four observations per day are received for low altitude satellites. These procedures have been implemented and, thus far, appear to be successful in minimizing the effect of subsequent geomagnetic storms on satellite tracking and ephemeris computation.
Bredvik, Gordon D.↗
Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico
Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Depending on the activities in progress at the time of the threat, securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the time it takes for them to reach the rig location. The objective of this study is to use the available 50 years of past cyclone history to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity would be exposed to an upcoming cyclone whose forecasted track cone and storm size lies within that location. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data from the Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Version 4. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. Also, the tool allows the user to input a T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.
Risk↗