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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Towards testing the theory of gravity with DESI: summary statistics, model predictions and future simulation requirements

Shortly after its discovery, General Relativity (GR) was applied to predict the behavior of our Universe on the largest scales, and later became the foundation of modern cosmology. Its validity has been verified on a range of scales and environments from the Solar system to merging black holes. However, experimental confirmations of GR on cosmological scales have so far lacked the accuracy one would hope for — its applications on those scales being largely based on extrapolation and its validity there sometimes questioned in the shadow of the discovery of the unexpected cosmic acceleration. Future astronomical instruments surveying the distribution and evolution of galaxies over substantial portions of the observable Universe, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), will be able to measure the fingerprints of gravity and their statistical power will allow strong constraints on alternatives to GR. In this paper, based on a set of N-body simulations and mock galaxy catalogs, we study the predictions of a number of traditional and novel summary statistics beyond linear redshift distortions in two well-studied modified gravity models — chameleon f(R) gravity and a braneworld model — and the potential of testing these deviations from GR using DESI. These summary statistics employ a wide array of statistical properties of the galaxy and the underlying dark matter field, including two-point and higher-order statistics, environmental dependence, redshift space distortions and weak lensing. We find that they hold promising power for testing GR to unprecedented precision. The major future challenge is to make realistic, simulation-based mock galaxy catalogs for both GR and alternative models to fully exploit the statistic power of the DESI survey (by matching the volumes and galaxy number densities of the mocks to those in the real survey) and to better understand the impact of key systematic effects. Using these, we identify future simulation and analysis needs for gravity tests using DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deterministic and Statistical Modeling of a New Thermal Breakout Technology for Measuring the Maximum Horizontal In-Situ Stress

The current state-of-the-art technology for in-situ stress measurements involves an integrated approach that combines borehole breakout observations, drilling-induced tensile fractures, and hydraulic fracturing tests (i.e., “mini-fracs”). This methodology has achieved wide application in the oil and gas industry but has several limitations that often prevent successful in-situ stress measurements. One major limitation is that breakouts do not appear in all boreholes and are generally only a natural occurrence that cannot easily be controlled. Because borehole breakouts are used to directly measure the maximum horizontal in-situ stress magnitude, the absence of borehole breakouts presents a major data gap for in-situ stress measurements. In response to this data gap, a new US Department of Energy (US DOE)-sponsored thermal breakout technology that will provide a method for thermally inducing borehole breakouts and allow the consistent measurement of the maximum horizontal stress magnitude is currently in development. This thermal breakout technology involves heating the borehole and increasing the thermoelastic compressive stress in the rock until a breakout develops, which can be directly correlated to the maximum horizontal stress magnitude. The first step in this project was an analytical modeling study of the thermal breakout process. Based on the Kirsch solution (Kirsch 1898), a deterministic and statistical analysis was performed on the pertinent parameters that influence the maximum horizontal stress calculation. As a result of the analysis, the findings indicate that the thermal breakout technology is feasible and provides improved accuracy and/or an enhanced ability to measure the maximum horizontal stress. Future work as part of this US DOE-sponsored project includes additional validation through more detailed numerical modeling, laboratory testing, and field testing of the thermal breakout technology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

Statistical modeling of scintillation effects

Scintillation produces fluctuation of the complex envelope of a modulated signal. A useful way to characterize scintillation effects is to describe the signal statistics that result when a CW wave is transmitted through a random medium. Many theoretical treatments describe the signal statistics in a manner identical with the noise theory of Rice. These theories, however, predict Rice statistics only at a very great distance from the perturbing medium, and it has been suspected that generalization to permit the quadrature components of the scattered signal to be partially correlated Gaussian variates might better match the observed signal statistics. Recent tests of signals observed through three types of structured plasma have consistently confirmed this speculation and have revealed a surprising consistency in parameters describing the first-order signal statistics.

Fremouw, E. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Interpretability in Generative Modeling: Statistically Disentangled Latent Spaces Guided by Generative Factors in Scientific Datasets

This study addresses the challenge of statistically extracting generative factors from complex, high-dimensional datasets in unsupervised or semi-supervised settings. We investigate encoder-decoder-based generative models for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, focusing on disentangling low-dimensional latent variables corresponding to independent physical factors. Introducing Aux-VAE, a novel architecture within the classical Variational Autoencoder framework, we achieve disentanglement with minimal modifications to the standard VAE loss function by leveraging prior statistical knowledge through auxiliary variables. These variables guide the shaping of the latent space by aligning latent factors with learned auxiliary variables. We validate the efficacy of Aux-VAE through comparative assessments on multiple datasets, including astronomical simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Tripled yield in direct-drive laser fusion through statistical modelling

Accurate predictive models are essential to the design of high-performance, laser-fusion experiments. Here, we report the development of a promising statistical approach that has been used to quantitatively predict and design several cryogenic deuterium-tritium (DT) implosions on the OMEGA Laser System, leading to the tripling of the fusion yield to its highest value for direct-drive laser fusion of DT-layered targets. When scaled to National Ignition Facility laser energies of 1.9 MJ, these targets are predicted to produce a fusion energy output of ~500 kJ—several times larger than current fusion yields achieved at that facility. Future applications of this approach will guide the exploration of the vast parameter space for the conditions required for thermonuclear ignition and expose gaps in our understanding of laser-fusion physics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1982

A statistical model of the photomultiplier gain process with applications to optical pulse detection

A Markov diffusion model was used to determine an approximate probability density for the random gain. This approximate density preserves the correct second-order statistics and appears to be in reasonably good agreement with experimental data. The receiver operating curve for a pulse counter detector of PMT cathode emission events was analyzed using this density. The error performance of a simple binary direct detection optical communication system was also derived.

Tan, H. H.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A statistical model of the photomultiplier gain process with applications to optical pulse detection

A Markov diffusion model was used to determine an approximate probability density for the random gain. This approximate density preserves the correct second-order statistics and appears to be in reasonably good agreement with experimental data. The receiver operating curve for a pulse counter detector of PMT cathode emission events was analyzed using this density. The error performance of a simple binary direct detection optical communication system was also derived. Previously announced in STAR as N82-25100

Tan, H. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving multiwell petrophysical interpretation from well logs via machine learning and statistical models

Well-log interpretation estimates in situ rock properties along well trajectory, such as porosity, water saturation, and permeability, to support reserve-volume estimation, production forecasts, and decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs caused by multiple measurement vendors, different borehole tools, and nonuniform drilling/borehole conditions, estimations of rock properties with original well logs without proper preprocessing may not be accurate, especially in the context of multiwell estimation. Well-log normalization techniques such as two-point scaling and mean-variance normalization are commonly used to improve the robustness of multiwell rock-property estimation. However, these techniques do not consider the correlation between well logs and require subjective knowledge for their effective implementation. To reduce uncertainties and processing time associated with multiwell rock-property estimation from well logs, we develop discriminative adversarial (DA) and linear constraint models for well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. The DA neural network model developed for well-log normalization and interpretation can perform linear and nonlinear well-log normalization while considering the joint distribution of each well log and rock properties. However, the linear constraint model uses an ensemble of predictions from linear models to constrain well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. We also develop a divergence-based type well identification method to select type (training) wells for a test well based on the statistical similarity of associated well-log distributions instead of the interwell distance. We apply the DA model to perform well-log normalization and prediction of permeability for the Seminole San Andres Unit carbonate reservoir. Compared with the permeability predicted with the classical machine learning model without well-log normalization and models with two-point scaling normalization, the DA model yields the most accurate permeability prediction by decreasing the mean-squared error of permeability prediction by 20%–50%.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2014

Statistical Modeling Approach to Quantitative Analysis of Interobserver Variability in Breast Contouring

Purpose: To develop a new approach for interobserver variability analysis. Methods and Materials: Eight radiation oncologists specializing in breast cancer radiation therapy delineated a patient's left breast “from scratch” and from a template that was generated using deformable image registration. Three of the radiation oncologists had previously received training in Radiation Therapy Oncology Group consensus contouring for breast cancer atlas. The simultaneous truth and performance level estimation algorithm was applied to the 8 contours delineated “from scratch” to produce a group consensus contour. Individual Jaccard scores were fitted to a beta distribution model. We also applied this analysis to 2 or more patients, which were contoured by 9 breast radiation oncologists from 8 institutions. Results: The beta distribution model had a mean of 86.2%, standard deviation (SD) of ±5.9%, a skewness of −0.7, and excess kurtosis of 0.55, exemplifying broad interobserver variability. The 3 RTOG-trained physicians had higher agreement scores than average, indicating that their contours were close to the group consensus contour. One physician had high sensitivity but lower specificity than the others, which implies that this physician tended to contour a structure larger than those of the others. Two other physicians had low sensitivity but specificity similar to the others, which implies that they tended to contour a structure smaller than the others. With this information, they could adjust their contouring practice to be more consistent with others if desired. When contouring from the template, the beta distribution model had a mean of 92.3%, SD ± 3.4%, skewness of −0.79, and excess kurtosis of 0.83, which indicated a much better consistency among individual contours. Similar results were obtained for the analysis of 2 additional patients. Conclusions: The proposed statistical approach was able to measure interobserver variability quantitatively and to identify individuals who tended to contour differently from the others. The information could be useful as feedback to improve contouring consistency.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Combining Phase Identification and Statistic Modeling for Automated Parallel Benchmark Generation

Parallel application benchmarks are indispensable for evaluating/optimizing HPC software and hardware. However, it is very challenging and costly to obtain high-fidelity benchmarks reflecting the scale and complexity of state-of-the-art parallel applications. Hand-extracted synthetic benchmarks are time-and labor-intensive to create. Real applications themselves, while offering most accurate performance evaluation, are expensive to compile, port, reconfigure, and often plainly inaccessible due to security or ownership concerns. This work contributes APPRIME, a novel tool for trace-based automatic parallel benchmark generation. Taking as input standard communication-I/O traces of an application's execution, it couples accurate automatic phase identification with statistical regeneration of event parameters to create compact, portable, and to some degree reconfigurable parallel application benchmarks. Experiments with four NAS Parallel Benchmarks (NPB) and three real scientific simulation codes confirm the fidelity of APPRIME benchmarks. They retain the original applications' performance characteristics, in particular the relative performance across platforms.

Jin, Ye↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Planning Management Actions to Restore Cold Water Stream Habitat: Comparing Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling Approaches

ABSTRACT Under the United States Clean Water Act, states are required to periodically assess state waters to determine compliance with water quality criteria (including temperature) and then to develop total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for impaired waters as necessary to bring them into compliance. We compared the performance of mechanistic stream temperature models (HeatSource, QUAL2K, and QUAL2Kw) applied to the mainstem of three TMDL watersheds (Middle Fork John Day, OR; Wind River, WA; South Fork Nooksack, WA) with that of spatial stream network (SSN) models applied to the full watersheds and used these to evaluate the potential effectiveness of restoration strategies. SSN models performed well with slightly lesser accuracy (RMSE = 0.47–0.87) for mainstem predictions than mechanistic models (RMSE = 0.4) but provided additional benefits to inform management, including information on spatial and temporal heterogeneity of restoration effectiveness throughout the watershed. Of the four scenarios considered (restoration of riparian zones to potential natural vegetation, channel narrowing, increasing flow by restricting irrigation withdrawals, and combined applications), riparian zone restoration was consistently the most effective in reducing temperatures at the outlet, mainstem, and throughout the watersheds. Predicted restoration effectiveness for thermal regimes varied significantly both within and among watersheds. A focus on water quality criteria exceedance only at the watershed outlet or along the mainstem reach can obscure knowledge of restoration potential for fish habitat in tributaries and headwaters, potential for creation of thermal refuge areas along the mainstem critical for maintaining migration corridors, and thermal regime heterogeneity across space and time.

Fuller, M. R.↗