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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic multiscale modeling for quantifying statistical and model errors with application to composite materials

This paper provides a coherent and efficient computational framework for stochastic multiscale analysis of material systems in the presence of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors. Uncertainty in those model parameters that are not deduced as upscaled quantities is attributed to an uncertainty “germ”. While such parameters can appear at any scale, they are predominant at the finest analysis scale. Additional uncertainties stemming from statistical estimation, attributed to lack of data and model error, are associated with each submodel contributing to the multiscale system. Here, a robust and efficient framework based on a generalized extended polynomial chaos expansion (gEPCE) is proposed to simultaneously propagate all these uncertainties in order to provide a probabilistic representation of specific quantities of interest (QoI). We characterize the full probability distribution of the QoI and the uncertainty in the failure probability pertaining to its tails. By combining gEPCE with kernel density estimation (KDE) and directional derivatives, we construct sensitivity measures that connect these statistical metrics of QoI to the various sources of uncertainty to assess their individual and combined impacts. An illustrative problem featuring three-point bending of a composite beam is investigated to demonstrate the presented approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1990

Statistics for laminar flamelet modeling

Statistical information required to support modeling of turbulent premixed combustion by laminar flamelet methods is extracted from a database of the results of Direct Numerical Simulation of turbulent flames. The simulations were carried out previously by Rutland (1989) using a pseudo-spectral code on a three dimensional mesh of 128 points in each direction. One-step Arrhenius chemistry was employed together with small heat release. A framework for the interpretation of the data is provided by the Bray-Moss-Libby model for the mean turbulent reaction rate. Probability density functions are obtained over surfaces of the constant reaction progress variable for the tangential strain rate and the principal curvature. New insights are gained which will greatly aid the development of modeling approaches.

Cant, R. S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal Learning in Power Modules: Wavelet-Enhanced Forecasting of Thermomechanical Degradation

Detecting internal defects in power electronics packages is critical for their performance and reliability, especially under extreme operating conditions, as these defects can lead to catastrophic failure if not properly addressed. Confocal scanning acoustic microscopy (C-SAM) plays a key role in the nondestructive evaluation of bond layer degradation within a power electronics package by detecting defects such as delamination, voids, and cracks. However, accurately quantifying and predicting these defects from C-SAM images remains a significant challenge due to the low noise-to-signal ratio, which typically arises from both imaging process and bond patterns itself. In this paper, we explore machine learning strategies for processing C-SAM images and providing predictive models of defect growth. We use C-SAM images of sintered copper and sintered silver samples, which are obtained under accelerated thermal experiments, as the representative dataset for our study. We investigate the effect of Fourier transforms and wavelet transforms on these datasets to remove high-frequency noise and address noise across multiple scales with histogram equalization to enhance the contrast and improve the visibility of defects. As a result, defect boundaries can be clearly distinguished, enabling more accurate tracking of their growth over time. We then employ different time-series forecasting algorithms on the denoised images to formulate an image-based lifetime prediction model. Statistical models and deep-learning techniques are trained on images obtained in the early stages of thermal shock, and defect growth in the later stages is predicted. Our work serves as a preliminary attempt to improve the accuracy of lifetime prediction models of power electronics packages, which is critical under extreme operating environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1983

Impact resistance of fiber composites: Energy absorbing mechanisms and environmental effects

Energy absorbing mechanisms were identified by several approaches. The energy absorbing mechanisms considered are those in unidirectional composite beams subjected to impact. The approaches used include: mechanic models, statistical models, transient finite element analysis, and simple beam theory. Predicted results are correlated with experimental data from Charpy impact tests. The environmental effects on impact resistance are evaluated. Working definitions for energy absorbing and energy releasing mechanisms are proposed and a dynamic fracture progression is outlined. Possible generalizations to angle-plied laminates are described.

Chamis, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Impact resistance of fiber composites - Energy-absorbing mechanisms and environmental effects

Energy absorbing mechanisms were identified by several approaches. The energy absorbing mechanisms considered are those in unidirectional composite beams subjected to impact. The approaches used include: mechanic models, statistical models, transient finite element analysis, and simple beam theory. Predicted results are correlated with experimental data from Charpy impact tests. The environmental effects on impact resistance are evaluated. Working definitions for energy absorbing and energy releasing mechanisms are proposed and a dynamic fracture progression is outlined. Possible generalizations to angle-plied laminates are described.

Chamis, C. C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

An adaptive knowledge-based data-driven approach for turbulence modeling using ensemble learning technique under complex flow configuration: 3D PWR sub-channel with DNS data

This work describes a new approach to increase the accuracy of Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) in modeling turbulence flow leveraging the machine learning technique. Traditionally, different turbulence models for Reynolds stress are developed for different flow patterns based on human knowledge. Each turbulence model has a certain application domain and prediction uncertainty. In recent years, with the rapid improvements of machine learning techniques, researchers start to develop an approach to compensate for the prediction discrepancy of traditional turbulence models with statistical models and data. However, the approach has deficiencies in several aspects. For example, the amount of human knowledge introduced to the statistical model couldn’t be controlled, which makes the statistical model learn from a very naïve stage and limits its application. In this work, a new approach is developed to address those deficiencies. Here, the new approach uses the “ensemble learning” technique to control the amount of human knowledge introduced into the statistical model. Therefore, the new approach could be adaptive to the multiple application domains. In conclusion, according to the results of case study, the new approach shows higher accuracy than both traditional turbulence models and the previous machine learning approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Statistical mechanics models for motion and force planning

The models of statistical mechanics provide an alternative to the methods of classical mechanics more traditionally used in robotics. They have a potential to: improve analysis of object collisions; handle kinematic and dynamic contact interactions within the same frmework; and reduce the need for perfect deterministic world model information. The statistical mechanics models characterize the state of the system as a probability density function (p.d.f.) whose time evolution is governed by a partial differential equation subject to boundary and initial conditions. The boundary conditions when rigid objects collide reflect the conservation of momentum. The models are being developed to embedd in remote semi-autonomous systems with a need to reason and interact with a multiobject environment.

Rodriguez, G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated statistical failure analysis of multifidelity TRISO fuel models

Statistical nuclear fuel failure analysis is critical for the design and development of advanced reactor technologies. Although Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is a standard method of statistical failure analysis for fuels, the low failure probabilities of some advanced fuel forms and the correspondingly large number of required model evaluations limit its application to low-fidelity (e.g., 1-D) fuel models. In this paper, we present four other statistical methods for fuel failure analysis in Bison, considering tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel as a case study. The statistical methods considered are Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), adaptive importance sampling (AIS), subset simulation (SS), and the Weibull theory. Using these methods, we analyzed both 1-D and 2-D representations of TRISO models to compute failure probabilities and the distributions of fuel properties that result in failures. The results of these methods compare well across all TRISO models considered. Overall, SS and the Weibull theory were deemed the most efficient, and can be applied to both 1-D and 2-D TRISO models to compute failure probabilities. Moreover, since SS also characterizes the distribution of parameters that cause TRISO failures, and can consider failure modes not described by the Weibull criterion, it may be preferred over the other methods. Finally, a discussion on the efficacy of different statistical methods of assessing nuclear fuel safety is provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correct Interpretations of ENDF-102 Definitions for Resonance Effects

My Uncle Willie circa 1600 wrote “What’s in a name; a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.” I fear in this case we have a somewhat similar problem in that we may be using the same word but are not using the same definition; specifically, the word Unresolved. The simplest physics definition as it applies to neutron resonances, is the energy point where we can no longer see/measure ALL – let me repeat that – ALL - of the individual resonances. That seems simple and clear, but the question is: how to represent resonances beyond this point in order to accurately reproduce the effects we have seen in measurements and expect/need to reproduce in our applications. We know there are more, unseen resonances, otherwise we wouldn’t say Unresolved. The ENDF approach is well defined in ENDF-102 and simple: for ENDF data the only way to represent Unresolved data is by using a theoretical model to define the distribution of resonances, including those that are too narrow to measure (i.e., are unresolved). It is important to note that in ENDF this is the one and only Unresolved model, e.g., there is no provision in ENDF to accurately define individually ALL resonances above the Resolved energy range – by ALL here I mean both those that we can measure and those that we cannot individually measure, but that theory and integral measurements tells us are present. An alternative approach, which would appear to be equally valid, would be to include the latest measured data as tabulated energy expendent data extending upwards in energy above the Resolved energy range. In this approach the evaluation would not include an ENDF style Unresolved energy range; it would only include a Resolved resonance region, followed by tabulated higher energy points, representing the resonances that could be measured beyond the Resolved range. But an important point to note: By listing these resonances above the resolved energy one admits that at least some resonances in this energy range are missing as Unresolved; i.e., they are too narrow or overlapping to measure. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate that the later approach, while done with good intentions, and appearing to be valid/adequate in plots, does not meet the need of our engineering applications. Why? As we will see below, of these two possible approaches, only the ENDF use of a model to statistically include the missing, i.e., unresolved, resonances, can meet our engineering needs to reproduce the integral effects we have measured and understand. Only with this statistical model can we predict and include in our calculated results the important effects of temperature (Doppler broadening), and energy integrals (self-shielding). Below I will first present results using two ENDF/B-VIII.1 evaluations, U235 and U238, that use the correct ENDF-102 definition of an Unresolved resonance region, using a statistical model to include the effects of resonances that theory predicts are present, but are too narrow to measure. These two evaluations reproduce the expected temperature (Doppler) and energy integral (self-shielding) effects that we expect. Next I will present results using one ENDF/B-VIII.1 evaluation, 26-Fe-56, that does not use an ENDF-102 Unresolved resonance region; instead above its Resolved energy range it lists many tabulated energy points, that look like measured data, but by definition, since they are included above the ENDF Resolved energy range there are missing Unresolved resonances, i.e., there are missing the resonances that are too narrow to resolve, i.e., are unresolved. My conclusion, and I hope yours, is that the below figures illustrate that this approach does not reproduce the temperature and energy integrals that we expect and need to accurately calculate results for our fission reactor calculations. As such this approach should not be used in ENDF formatted evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Design and analysis of numerical experiments

Methods for the design and analysis of numerical experiments that are especially useful and efficient in multidimensional parameter spaces are presented. The analysis method, which is similar to kriging in the spatial analysis literature, fits a statistical model to the output of the numerical model. The method is applied to a fully nonlinear, global, equivalent-barotropic dynamical model. The statistical model also provides estimates for the uncertainty of predicted numerical model output, which can provide guidance on where in the parameter space to conduct further experiments, if necessary. The method can provide significant improvements in the efficiency with which numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solving Statistical Flowgraph Models: A Brief Review

Statistical flowgraph models (SFGMs) have proven useful for analysis and modeling of multistate processes in various fields. In this paper we briefly review flowgraph models, describe how to set up a model, and provide a fully worked example from biostatistics. References are provided for more details.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗