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DOE OSTI2022

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) v1.1: an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator for large-scale models

Abstract. Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Vapor kinetic energy for the detection and understanding of atmospheric rivers

Poleward water vapor transport in the midlatitudes mainly occurs in meandering filaments of intense water vapor transport, spanning thousands of kilometers long and hundreds of kilometers wide and moving eastward. The water vapor filaments are known as atmospheric rivers (ARs). They can cause extreme wind gusts, intense precipitation, and flooding along densely populated coastal regions. Many recent studies about ARs focused on the statistical analyses of ARs, but a process-level understanding of ARs remains elusive. Here we show that ARs are streams of air with enhanced vapor kinetic energy (VKE) and derive a governing equation for Integrated VKE to understand what contributes to the evolution of ARs. We find that ARs grow mainly because of potential energy conversion to kinetic energy, decay largely owing to condensation and turbulence, and the eastward movement is primarily due to horizontal advection of VKE. Our VKE framework complements the integrated vapor transport framework, which is popular for identifying ARs but lacks a prognostic equation for understanding the physical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Signal Decomposition Analysis and Anomaly Detection in Photovoltaic Systems

With the rapid expansion of large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants, it is paramount for solar stakeholders to understand the reliability and efficiency of their plants to inform maintenance decisions, increase production, and understand the design factors that impact performance. Diagnosing underperformance in PV plants is challenging due to the relatively few monitoring points with respect to the large geographic footprint of the plant. This work introduces a cutting-edge method that transforms the analysis and management of key factors influencing PV plant performance, including performance loss rate (PLR), recoverable soiling, and major system changes. Identifying these factors is critical for deriving actionable insights. Leveraging advanced analytical techniques such as wavelet transformation, robust regression, and extreme point analysis, this approach provides a nuanced understanding of these factors. This method has been tested across two synthetic datasets and one real dataset, consistently surpassing existing benchmarks by achieving a lower median mean absolute error and reduced error variability across all comparable components.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Examining the Feasibility of Identifying Tau Neutrino Charged Current Events in the DUNE Far Detector

Neutrinos began as theoretical, massless particles, and since their first detection they have continued to be the subject of various experiments. One such experiment is DUNE, which is a long baseline neutrino experiment with the goal of studying neutrino properties, such as neutrino oscillation parameters. In this work, two projects were completed, one dealing with the hardware of DUNE and the other dealing with neutrino simulations. For the hardware project, we designed a quality control method for testing adaptor boards which make up part of the Far Detector circuit boards. This method was completed and prototyped, however was not implemented as planned due to funding changes. For the simulation project, we simulated ντ , νµ, and νe CC interactions using two simulation methods (stand alone GENIE and a full detector simulation) in order to begin to understand what a ντ CC event would look like in the Far Detector and create an initial list of kinematic properties that can be used for this purpose. We found that there is not a complete understanding of what is occurring in the full detector simulation. We also found that there is promise in using kinematic properties to be able to differentiate ντ CC events, however properties beyond those covered here, as well as a more accurate simulation, will be required for any definitive statistical statements.

Choate, Sarah↗

DOE OSTI2025

Where do the fish go in winter? A year of observing seasonal changes in Sequim Bay’s nearshore fish community

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has been proposed as a complementary method to monitor fish species in marine environments. eDNA offers a non-invasive, cost-effective, and scalable way to detect aquatic species. It is appealing in environments where traditional methods are limited by access or visibility, especially in complex or sensitive habitats such as tidal channels and other marine energy sites. Before eDNA can be fully relied upon, we must verify its accuracy against established methods, like underwater photography. In this study, we collected eDNA samples and concurrently deployed a 360-degree camera near the floating dock of PNNL-Sequim in the tidal channel of Sequim Bay once a month for twelve consecutive months. During deployments, the camera remained on the seafloor for several hours overlapping slack tide and captured time-lapse photographs at ten second intervals. Counts and identifications of fish species observed in the images were used to calculate monthly Shannon diversity and Pielou evenness indices. These values were compared across the months using a Kruskal-Wallis test paired with a Conover-Iman post-hoc test. Cliff’s Delta was also calculated to quantify the effect size of the monthly differences. No fish were observed from December through April, likely due to seasonal behavior changes within the local fish community. Fish returned to the shoreline in May, with the greatest diversity and evenness recorded in September. These findings reveal substantial seasonal variation in nearshore fish communities. Many monthly comparisons were found to contain statistically significant differences within the diversity and evenness, and even more were found to have large effect sizes, signifying large ecological changes throughout the seasons. The absence of fish observed during the winter months is a key outcome of this survey that will hopefully be reflected in the eDNA results still to come, which would help validate the eDNA approach.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exclusive J/$\psi$ detection and physics with ECCE

The EIC Comprehensive Chromodynamics Experiment (ECCE) detector has been recommended as a reference design for the proposed Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) program. Here, this paper presents simulation studies of exclusive J/$\psi$ detection and selected physics impact results in EIC using the projected ECCE detector concept. Exclusive quarkonium photoproduction is one of the most popular processes in EIC, which has a large cross section and a simple final state. Due to the gluonic nature of the exchange Pomeron, this process can be related to the gluon distributions in the nucleus. Preliminary results estimate the excellent statistics benefited from the large cross section of J/$\psi$ photoproduction and superior performance of ECCE detector concept. The precise measurement of exclusive J/$\psi$ photoproduction at EIC will help us to more deeply understand nuclear gluon distributions, near threshold production mechanism and nucleon mass structure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Detection of the significant impact of source clustering on higher order statistics with DES Year 3 weak gravitational lensing data

We measure the impact of source galaxy clustering on higher order summary statistics of weak gravitational lensing data. By comparing simulated data with galaxies that either trace or do not trace the underlying density field, we show that this effect can exceed measurement uncertainties for common higher order statistics for certain analysis choices. We evaluate the impact on different weak lensing observables, finding that third moments and wavelet phase harmonics are more affected than peak count statistics. Using Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 (Y3) data, we construct null tests for the source-clustering-free case, finding a p-value of p = 4 × 10 −3 (2.6σ) using third-order map moments and p = 3 × 10 −11 (6.5σ) using wavelet phase harmonics. The impact of source clustering on cosmological inference can be either included in the model or minimized through ad hoc procedures (e.g. scale cuts). We verify that the procedures adopted in existing DES Y3 cosmological analyses were sufficient to render this effect negligible. Failing to account for source clustering can significantly impact cosmological inference from higher order gravitational lensing statistics, e.g. higher order N-point functions, wavelet-moment observables, and deep learning or field-level summary statistics of weak lensing maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Well Stimulation Treatment in California: Evaluation of Disclosure Data, May 2015 – October 2019

In this document, disclosure data from 1,228 well stimulations occurring May 2015 to October 2019 in California are evaluated. This evaluation updates a previous study that was based on 618 well stimulations occurring May 2015 to June 2016 (Stringfellow, W.T., Camarillo, M.K., and Jordan, P. 2017, Status of Well Stimulation in California Since Implementation of SB-4 Regulations, Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA). While the goal of the previous study was to provide a summary of information obtained since passage of California Senate Bill No. 4—Oil and Gas, the goal of the current evaluation is to provide a basis for studying chemical indicators that could potentially be used to detect aquifer contamination. We evaluate chemical indicators is a separate document using the data contained herein as well as data from monitoring wells located within oil fields. Compared with the data used by Stringfellow et al. 2017, the current evaluation is based on a more diverse data set. While the previous study contained data for only two oil fields with more than 30 well stimulations, the current data set contains four oil fields with more than 30 well stimulations, making these data more ideal for comparisons using statistical tests. More producers and a new oil field, Buena Vista Nose, are represented in the current data set. Some well stimulation practices remain relatively unchanged since the previous study. Well stimulation is mostly occurring in Kern County with the exception of a single well stimulation in Orange County. Almost all well stimulations are hydraulic fracturing. The current data set contains two acid fracturing treatments and one matrix acidizing treatment. The median number of chemicals added per well stimulation—excluding water and proppant—was previously 21; the number in the expanded data set is 20. Median water added per well stimulation was previously 89,000 gallons and is now 98,000 gallons. While this water use represents a 10% increase, water use for hydraulic fracturing in California is still lower than water use in other oil and gas fields. Chemical formulations appear to have shifted since the previous study. This shift may be related to a change in the predominant service company. We identified 26 chemicals for which the frequency of use has changed by more than 30%. The total number of chemicals used has also expanded. Previously, 178 unique chemicals were identified as being added to well stimulation fluids. The total number of unique chemicals is now 205. Analytical data available for base and recovered fluids has expanded. The number of base fluid samples has increased from 12 to 35 and the number of recovered fluid samples has increased from 1,078 to 2,166. The expanded data set is more ideal for an evaluation of indicator chemicals and comparisons across different formations. The analytical data for recovered fluid samples indicates that many ions, radioactive constituents, and organics are consistently observed, making these chemicals ideal for consideration as potential indicators of aquifer contamination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing the Impact of Radio-mode Feedback on the Properties of the Cool Circumgalactic Medium

We explore the influence of radio-mode feedback on the properties of the cool circumgalactic medium (CGM). To this end, we assemble a statistical sample of approximately 30,000 radio galaxies with background quasars by combining optical spectroscopic measurements of luminous red galaxies and quasars from the year 1 data set of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and radio sources from the LOw-Frequency ARray Two-metre Sky Survey (LoTSS) DR2 catalog and the Very Large Array Sky Survey (VLASS) quick-look catalog. Galaxies with similar optical properties but with no radio counterparts in LoTSS and VLASS are selected as the control group. We measure the cool CGM properties of radio galaxies and their control samples traced by Mg ii absorption lines, including covering fraction, rest equivalent width, and gas kinematics. Our results show no significant difference in the properties of gas around radio galaxies and their control sample, indicating that the operating radio-mode feedback of massive galaxies does not produce detectable effects on the properties of the cool CGM. Finally, we show that the CGM of radio galaxies contains a nonnegligible amount of cool gas with approximately 10 10 M ⊙ . This abundance can place a stringent constraint on the radio-mode feedback models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Imprints of cosmic voids and superclusters in the Planck CMB lensing map

ABSTRACT The CMB lensing signal from cosmic voids and superclusters probes the growth of structure in the low-redshift cosmic web. In this analysis, we cross-correlated the Planck CMB lensing map with voids detected in the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (Y3) data set (∼5000 deg2), expanding on previous measurements that used Y1 catalogues (∼1300 deg2). Given the increased statistical power compared to Y1 data, we report a 6.6σ detection of negative CMB convergence (κ) imprints using approximately 3600 voids detected from a redMaGiC luminous red galaxy sample. However, the measured signal is lower than expected from the MICE N-body simulation that is based on the ΛCDM model (parameters Ωm = 0.25, σ8 = 0.8), and the discrepancy is associated mostly with the void centre region. Considering the full void lensing profile, we fit an amplitude $A_{\kappa }=\kappa _{{\rm DES}}/\kappa _{{\rm MICE}}$ to a simulation-based template with fixed shape and found a moderate 2σ deviation in the signal with Aκ ≈ 0.79 ± 0.12. We also examined the WebSky simulation that is based on a Planck 2018 ΛCDM cosmology, but the results were even less consistent given the slightly higher matter density fluctuations than in MICE. We then identified superclusters in the DES and the MICE catalogues, and detected their imprints at the 8.4σ level; again with a lower-than-expected Aκ = 0.84 ± 0.10 amplitude. The combination of voids and superclusters yields a 10.3σ detection with an Aκ = 0.82 ± 0.08 constraint on the CMB lensing amplitude, thus the overall signal is 2.3σ weaker than expected from MICE.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Anatomy of Continuous Mars SEIS and Pressure Data from Unsupervised Learning

The seismic noise recorded by the Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy, and Heat Transport (InSight) seismometer (Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure [SEIS]) has a strong daily quasi-periodicity and numerous transient microevents, associated mostly with an active Martian environment with wind bursts, pressure drops, in addition to thermally induced lander and instrument cracks. That noise is far from the Earth’s microseismic noise. Quantifying the importance of nonstochasticity and identifying these microevents is mandatory for improving continuous data quality and noise analysis techniques, including autocorrelation. Cataloging these events has so far been made with specific algorithms and operator’s visual inspection. We investigate here the continuous data with an unsupervised deep-learning approach built on a deep scattering network. This leads to the successful detection and clustering of these microevents as well as better determination of daily cycles associated with changes in the intensity and color of the background noise. We first provide a description of our approach, and then present the learned clusters followed by a study of their origin and associated physical phenomena. We show that the clustering is robust over several Martian days, showing distinct types of glitches that repeat at a rate of several tens per sol with stable time differences. We show that the clustering and detection efficiency for pressure drops and glitches is comparable to or better than manual or targeted detection techniques proposed to date, noticeably with an unsupervised approach. Finally, here we discuss the origin of other clusters found, especially glitch sequences with stable time offsets that might generate artifacts in autocorrelation analyses. We conclude with presenting the potential of unsupervised learning for long-term space mission operations, in particular, for geophysical and environmental observatories.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cross-correlation of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 lensing data with ACT and Planck thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect observations. I. Measurements, systematics tests, and feedback model constraints

Here we present a tomographic measurement of the cross-correlation between thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (TSZ) maps from Planck and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and weak galaxy lensing shears measured during the first three years of observations of the Dark Energy Survey. This correlation is sensitive to the thermal energy in baryons over a wide redshift range and is therefore a powerful probe of astrophysical feedback. We detect the correlation at a statistical significance of 21σ, the highest significance to date. We examine the TSZ maps for potential contaminants, including cosmic infrared background and radio sources, finding that cosmic infrared background has a substantial impact on our measurements and must be taken into account in our analysis. We use the cross-correlation measurements to test different feedback models. In particular, we model the TSZ using several different pressure profile models calibrated against hydrodynamical simulations. Our analysis marginalizes over redshift uncertainties, shear calibration biases, and intrinsic alignment effects. We also marginalize over Ω m and σ 8 using Planck or DES priors. We find that the data prefer the model with a low amplitude of the pressure profile at small scales, compatible with a scenario with strong active galactic nuclei feedback and ejection of gas from the inner part of the halos. When using a more flexible model for the shear profile, constraints are weaker, and the data cannot discriminate between different baryonic prescriptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ensembles of Metastable States Govern Heterogeneous Catalysis on Dynamic Interfaces

Heterogeneous catalysis is at the heart of chemical industry. Being able to tune and design efficient catalysts for processes of interest is of an utmost importance, and for this, the molecular-level understanding of heterogeneous catalysts is the first step, and indeed a prime focus of the modern catalysis research. For a long time, a single most thermodynamically stable structure of the catalytic interface attained in reaction conditions had been envisioned as the reactive phase. However, some catalytic interfaces continue to undergo structural dynamics in the steady state, triggered by high temperatures, pressures, and binding and changing reagents. Among particularly dynamic interfaces are such widely-used catalysts as crystalline and amorphous surfaced supporting (sub-)nano metallic clusters. Recently, it became clear that this dynamic fluxionality causes the supported clusters to populate many distinct structural and stoichiometric states in catalytic conditions. Hence, the catalytic interface should be viewed as an evolving statistical ensemble of many (not one) structures. As such, every member in the ensemble contributes to the properties of the catalyst differently, and in proportion to its probability to be populated. This new notion flips the established paradigm and calls for new theory, modeling approaches, operando measurements, and updated design strategies. The statistical ensemble nature of surface-supported sub-nano cluster catalysts can be exemplified by oxide-supported and adsorbate-covered Pt, Pd, Cu, CuPd clusters, catalytic toward oxidative and non-oxidative dehydrogenation. They have access to a variety of 3D and quasi-2D shapes. The compositions of their thermal ensembles are dependent on the cluster size, leading to size-specific catalytic activities and the famous “every atom counts” phenomenon. The support and adsorbates affect catalyst structures, and state of the reacting species causes the ensemble to change in every reaction intermediate. The most stable member of the ensemble dominates the thermodynamic properties of the corresponding intermediate, whereas the kinetics can be determined by more active but less populated metastable catalyst states, and that suggests that many earlier studies might have overlooked the actual active sites. Both effects depend on the relative time-scales of catalyst restructuring and reaction dynamics. The catalyst may routinely operate off-equilibrium. Ensemble phenomena lead to surprising exceptions from established rules of catalysis, such as scaling relations, and Arrhenius behavior. Catalyst deactivation is also an ensemble property, and its extent of mitigation can be predicted through the new paradigm. These findings were enabled by advances in theory, such as global optimization and subsequent utilization of multiple local minima, and pathways sampling, as well as operando catalyst characterization. The fact that the per-site and per-species resolution is needed for the description and predicting of catalyst properties gives theory the central role in catalysis research, as most experiments provide ensemble-average information and cannot detect the crucial minority species that may be responsible for the catalytic activity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Galaxy–galaxy lensing with the DES-CMASS catalogue: measurement and constraints on the galaxy-matter cross-correlation

ABSTRACT The DMASS sample is a photometric sample from the DES Year 1 data set designed to replicate the properties of the CMASS sample from BOSS, in support of a joint analysis of DES and BOSS beyond the small overlapping area. In this paper, we present the measurement of galaxy–galaxy lensing using the DMASS sample as gravitational lenses in the DES Y1 imaging data. We test a number of potential systematics that can bias the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal, including those from shear estimation, photometric redshifts, and observing conditions. After careful systematic tests, we obtain a highly significant detection of the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal, with total S/N = 25.7. With the measured signal, we assess the feasibility of using DMASS as gravitational lenses equivalent to CMASS, by estimating the galaxy-matter cross-correlation coefficient rcc. By jointly fitting the galaxy–galaxy lensing measurement with the galaxy clustering measurement from CMASS, we obtain $r_{\rm cc}=1.09^{+0.12}_{-0.11}$ for the scale cut of $4 \, h^{-1}{\rm \,\,Mpc}$ and $r_{\rm cc}=1.06^{+0.13}_{-0.12}$ for $12 \, h^{-1}{\rm \,\,Mpc}$ in fixed cosmology. By adding the angular galaxy clustering of DMASS, we obtain rcc = 1.06 ± 0.10 for the scale cut of $4 \, h^{-1}{\rm \,\,Mpc}$ and rcc = 1.03 ± 0.11 for $12 \, h^{-1}{\rm \,\,Mpc}$. The resulting values of rcc indicate that the lensing signal of DMASS is statistically consistent with the one that would have been measured if CMASS had populated the DES region within the given statistical uncertainty. The measurement of galaxy–galaxy lensing presented in this paper will serve as part of the data vector for the forthcoming cosmology analysis in preparation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

ClimateNet: an expert-labeled open dataset and deep learning architecture for enabling high-precision analyses of extreme weather

Abstract. Identifying, detecting, and localizing extreme weather events is a crucial first step in understanding how they may vary under different climate change scenarios. Pattern recognition tasks such as classification, object detection, and segmentation (i.e., pixel-level classification) have remained challenging problems in the weather and climate sciences. While there exist many empirical heuristics for detecting extreme events, the disparities between the output of these different methods even for a single event are large and often difficult to reconcile. Given the success of deep learning (DL) in tackling similar problems in computer vision, we advocate a DL-based approach. DL, however, works best in the context of supervised learning – when labeled datasets are readily available. Reliable labeled training data for extreme weather and climate events is scarce. We create “ClimateNet” – an open, community-sourced human-expert-labeled curated dataset that captures tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in high-resolution climate model output from a simulation of a recent historical period. We use the curated ClimateNet dataset to train a state-of-the-art DL model for pixel-level identification – i.e., segmentation – of TCs and ARs. We then apply the trained DL model to historical and climate change scenarios simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) and show that the DL model accurately segments the data into TCs, ARs, or “the background” at a pixel level. Further, we show how the segmentation results can be used to conduct spatially and temporally precise analytics by quantifying distributions of extreme precipitation conditioned on event types (TC or AR) at regional scales. The key contribution of this work is that it paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data using a curated expert-labeled dataset – ClimateNet. ClimateNet and the DL-based segmentation method provide several unique capabilities: (i) they can be used to calculate a variety of TC and AR statistics at a fine-grained level; (ii) they can be applied to different climate scenarios and different datasets without tuning as they do not rely on threshold conditions; and (iii) the proposed DL method is suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of climate model output. While our study has been conducted for two important extreme weather patterns (TCs and ARs) in simulation datasets, we believe that this methodology can be applied to a much broader class of patterns and applied to observational and reanalysis data products via transfer learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Harnessing the Population Statistics of Subhalos to Search for Annihilating Dark Matter

The Milky Way's dark matter halo is expected to host numerous low-mass subhalos with no detectable associated stellar component. Such subhalos are invisible unless their dark matter annihilates to visible states such as photons. One of the established methods for identifying candidate subhalos is to search for individual unassociated gamma-ray sources with properties consistent with the dark matter expectation. However, robustly ruling out an astrophysical origin for any such candidate is challenging. In this work, we present a complementary approach that harnesses information about the entire population of subhalos—such as their spatial and mass distribution in the Galaxy—to search for a signal of annihilating dark matter. Using simulated data, we show that the collective emission from subhalos can imprint itself in a unique way on the statistics of observed photons, even when individual subhalos may be too dim to be resolved on their own. Additionally, we demonstrate that, for the models we consider, the signal can be identified even in the face of unresolved astrophysical point-source emission of extragalactic and Galactic origin. Furthermore, this establishes a new search technique for subhalos that is complementary to established methods, and that could have important ramifications for gamma-ray dark matter searches using observatories such as the Fermi Large Area Telescope and the Cerenkov Telescope Array.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗