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DOE OSTI2025

AI-based Cyber Event OSINT via Twitter Data

Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) is largely regarded as a necessary component for cybersecurity intelligence gathering to secure network systems. With the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and increasing usage of social media, like Twitter, we have a unique opportunity to obtain and aggregate information from social media. In this study, we propose an AI-based scheme capable of automatically pulling information from Twitter, filtering out security-irrelevant tweets, performing natural language analysis to correlate the tweets about each cybersecurity event (e.g., a malware campaign), and validating the information. This scheme has many applications, such as providing a means for security operators to gain insight into ongoing events and helping them prioritize vulnerabilities to deal with. To give examples of the possible uses, we present three case studies demonstrating the event discovery and investigation processes.

Dale, Dakota↗

DOE OSTI2023

Visible Light Communications: A Survey on Recent High-Capacity Demonstrations and Digital Modulation Techniques

In order to deal with the increasing number of mobile devices and with their demand for Internet services, particularly social media platforms, streaming video, and online gaming, Radio-Frequency (RF) wireless networks have been pushed to their capacity limits. In addition to this, 80% of the total data traffic is carried out by users inside buildings. Therefore, new technologies have started to be considered for indoor wireless communications. Visible Light Communications (VLC) can provide both illumination and communications, appearing as an alternative or complement to RF wireless networks. VLC offers high bandwidth and immunity to interference from electromagnetic sources. This manuscript reviews recent high-capacity VLC demonstrations. The main focus of this work is to present digital-signal-processing techniques used in VLC systems. Different modulation formats are analyzed, which can be divided into two large groups, namely single-carrier and multi-carrier modulation schemes. Finally, some recently proposed capacity-achieving strategies are presented. We discuss how to implement these techniques and how they will be useful for the continued development of VLC systems.

Loureiro, Pedro A. (ORCID:0000000283546185)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Managing Wildfire Risk and Promoting Equity through Optimal Configuration of Networked Microgrids

As climate change increases the risk of large-scale wildfires, wildfire ignitions from electric power lines are a growing concern. To mitigate the wildfire ignition risk, many electric utilities de-energize power lines to prevent electric faults and failures. These preemptive power shutoffs are effective in reducing ignitions, but they could result in wide-scale power outages. Advanced technology, such as networked microgrids, can help reduce the size of the resulting power outages; however, even microgrid technology might not be sufficient to supply power to everyone, thus forcing hard questions about how to prioritize the provision of power among customers. In this paper, we present an optimization problem that configures networked microgrids to manage wildfire risk while maximizing the power served to customers; however, rather than simply maximizing the amount of power served in kilowatts, our formulation also considers the ability of customers to cope with power outages, as measured by social vulnerability, and it discourages the disconnection of particularly vulnerable customer groups. To test our model, we leverage a synthetic but realistic distribution feeder, along with publicly available social vulnerability indices and satellite-based wildfire risk map data, to quantify the parameters in our optimal decision-making model. Our case study results demonstrate the benefits of networked microgrids in limiting load shed and promoting equity during scenarios with high wildfire risk.

distribution systems↗

DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Creating a Research Enterprise Framework for Transdisciplinary Networking to Address the Food–Energy–Water Nexus

Urbanization, population growth, and the accelerating consumption of food, energy, and water (FEW) resources bring unprecedented challenges for economic, environmental, and social (EES) sustainability. It is imperative to understand the potential impacts of FEW systems on the realization of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as the world transitions from natural ecosystems to managed ecosystems at an accelerating rate. A major obstacle is the complexity and emergent behavior of FEW systems and associated networks, for which no single discipline can generate a holistic understanding or meaningful projections. We propose a research enterprise framework for promoting transdisciplinarity and top-down quantification of the interrelationships between FEW and EES systems. Relevant enterprise efforts would emphasize increasing FEW resource accessibility by improving coordinated interplays across sectors and scales, expanding and diversifying supply-chain networks, and innovating technologies for efficient resource utilization. This framework can guide the development of strategic solutions for diminishing the competition among FEW-consuming sectors in a region or country, and for minimizing existing inequalities in FEW availability when a sustainable development agenda is implemented.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of Socio-Technical Threat Models

Given the adoption of emerging technologies and the increasing complexity of managing such systems with a lifecycle much shorter than that of critical infrastructure systems, there is a practical need to be able to analyze sociotechnical dependencies and their associated evolving risks. Threat models based on social influence techniques can be used to implement adversarial tactics analogous to the cyber kill chain and attested to within the MITRE ATT&CK for ICS framework including Initial Access, Persistence, Collection, and Impact. Furthermore, as with cyber disruptions, the impact of social influence threat models can have an asymmetric impact that is not spatially-localized. Finally, unlike cyber attacks with a reasonably short duration (ransomware takes days to months), social influence based attacks have the potential to persist for much longer as they are based on long-term strategic infrastructure investments within the private sector. Given the increased importance of electric vehicle charging stations as a long-term, strategic infrastructure investment within the Energy and Transportation Sectors, we provide initial results that compare the impact of a Loss of Availability (T0826) realized through cyber and social influence based threat models. The analysis employs techniques from automated reasoning and measures of network complexity to understand evolving dominance of EV payment and charging networks within geographic region of interest. Within this context, we compare the impact of a loss of availability due to ransomware versus that of loss of support due to a merger and acquisition. Results across several different metro areas will be provided.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of realistic routing on the social burden metric

The distance people travel to reach critical services is a key input to the Social Burden metric used by Sandia’s Resilient Node Cluster Analysis Tool (ReNCAT) in the optimization’s objective function. By default, ReNCAT utilizes Euclidian distances between population blocks and critical facilities when calculating Social Burden. However, these straight-line distances do not reflect how most residents or goods would travel throughout the area. As distance is a vital input to the burden calculation, a more realistic distance calculation will yield more realistic burden values. This work uses real road networks and calculates the shortest distance path between population centers and critical facilities using a standard graph theory approach. These realistic route distances are then used to compute Social Burden for four areas of study. It was found that distances using real road routes are generally, but not always, longer than the Euclidean distance. The increased length increases the final Social Burden metric, however, the overall burden percent change ranged between 17% and 52%, which means the impact of realistic routes relies heavily upon the area’s road topology. It was found that rural locations within an area may have larger burden increases than urban areas as more dense road networks allow routes to more closely follow a straight-line path. Additionally, using the most straight forward routing algorithms requires high computational effort for areas with large road networks. While it is believed this process can be made more performant, that task is beyond this scope of work.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Models for Electrical Distribution Network Planning and District-Scale Building Energy Use

The increase of greenhouse emissions caused by a rise in global energy consumption is pushing the scientific community to develop tools that address key environmental, techno-economic and social issues. One specific area of focus is to create tools that enable the design of high-performance energy districts, including grid-interactive efficient buildings and electrical distribution infrastructure. This paper outlines the approach of integrating a synthetic distribution network tool (RNM-US) with URBANopt™, a modular and customizable software development kit for thermal and electrical modelling of buildings and energy systems at a district scale. First, we describe the algorithms implemented to integrate RNM-US with URBANopt to automatically generate the distribution network for the district considered. Following, we present a case study for the potential uses of the RNM-US integrations with URBANopt, highlighting the capabilities for economic and technical analysis of the distribution network built in relation to the electricity needs of the modelled buildings.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2024

DyG-DPCD: A Distributed Parallel Community Detection Algorithm for Large-Scale Dynamic Graphs

Dynamic (Temporal) graphs capture the valuable evolution of real-world systems, from the continuously evolving patterns of social interactions and genetic pathways to the dynamic fluctuations of economic forces. Detecting communities for such evolving networks poses unique challenges. Detecting and analyzing the evolution of communities within dynamic graphs unlocks valuable insights into the underlying structural and temporal patterns of real-world systems. However, the sheer volume of modern graph data and the inherent complexity of the temporal dimension pose significant challenges to scalable community detection algorithms. Addressing this gap, our work explores the limited landscape of scalable distributed-memory parallel methods specifically designed for dynamic network community detection. We propose a novel parallel algorithm, DyG-DPCD (Dynamic Graph Distributed Parallel Community Detection), to detect communities in dynamic networks using the Message Passing Interface (MPI) framework. We present a vertex-centric approach, allowing us to detect communities through local optimization. Furthermore, we enhance our baseline algorithm by incorporating three heuristics, which improve the algorithm’s performance significantly while maintaining the quality of the solutions. We demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithm by experimenting on several real-world large-scale networks with hundreds of millions of edges spanning diverse domains. Notably, DyG-DPCD achieves speedups between 25× and 30× for large networks that we experimented on using NERSC compute nodes. In conclusion, our algorithm outperforms the STINGER parallel re-agglomeration algorithm by 30×.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Adaptive Recovery Model: Designing Systems for Testing Tracing and Vaccination to Support COVID-19 Recovery Planning.

This report documents a new approach to designing disease control policies that allocate scarce testing, contact tracing, and vaccination resources to better control community transmission of COVID19 or similar diseases. The Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) combines a deterministic compartmental disease model with a stochastic network disease propagation model to enable us to simulate COVID-19 community spread through the lens of two complementary modeling motifs. ARM contact networks are derived from cell-phone location data that have been anonymized and interpreted as individual arrivals to specic public locations. Modeling disease spread over these networks allows us to identify locations within communities conducive to rapid disease spread. ARM applies this model- and data-derived abstractions of community transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control measures including targeted social distancing, contact tracing, testing and vaccination. The architecture of ARM provides a unique capacity to help decision makers understand how best to deploy scarce testing, tracing and vaccination resources to minimize disease-spread potential in a community. This document details the novel mathematical formulations underlying ARM, presents a dynamical stability analysis of the deterministic model components, a sensitivity analysis of control parameters and network structure, and summarizes a process for deriving contact networks from cell-phone location data. An example use case steps through applying ARM to evaluate three targeted social distancing policies using Bernalillo County, New Mexico as an exemplar test locale. This step-by-step analysis demonstrates how ARM can be used to measure the relative performance of competing public health policies. Initial scenario tests of ARM shows that ARMs design focus on resource utilization rather than simple incidence prediction can provide decision makers with additional quantitative guidance for managing ongoing public health emergencies and planning future responses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

“When I talk about it, my eyes light up!” Impacts of a national laboratory internship on community college student success

Participation in technical/research internships may improve undergraduate graduation rates and persistence in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), yet little is known about the benefits of these activities a) for community college students, b) when hosted by national laboratories, and c) beyond the first few years after the internship. We applied Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT) to investigate alumni perspectives about how CCI at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) impacted their academic/career activities. We learned that alumni had low confidence and expectations of success in STEM as community college students. Participation in CCI increased their professional networks, expectations of success, and STEM skills, identity, and self-efficacy/confidence. Hispanic/Latinx alumni recalled the positive impact of mentors who prioritized personal connections, and women valued "warm" social environments. We propose several additions to the SCCT model, to better reflect the supports and barriers to STEM persistence for community college students.

careers↗

DOE OSTI2024

GraphCH: A Deep Framework for Assessing Cyber-Human Aspects in Insider Threat Detection

Insider threat is one of the most damaging cyber attacks that could cause the loss of intellectual property and enterprise data security breaches. Action sequence data such as host logs are used to investigate such threats and develop anomaly-based AI detectors. However, insider threat actions are similar to legitimate user activities, causing AI detectors to fail and suffer from high false alarm rates. Therefore, user cyber activity logs are inadequate to fully unfold insider threats. In this study, we adopt human psychological principles of risk-taking and impulsiveness along with host data to assess the influence and usefulness of human behavioral aspects in insider threat detection. Here, we hypothesize that individuals' impulsive and risk-taking behavior correlates with cyberspace activities. To validate our hypothesis, we conducted an IRB-approved study recruiting 35 participants who work in a large U.S. university and collected their cyber and psychological data for 90 days. Host and human-behavioral data analysis and mapping indicate that impulsive and risk-taking users trigger more system errors causing (un)intentional insider threats and are susceptible to attackers' social engineering and cognitive hacking. Utilizing cyber-human aspects, we introduce a Cyber-Human Graph Neural Network (GNN) based framework GraphCH to identify abnormal user behaviors and detect insider threats.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Graph-based Simulation Framework for Power Resilience Estimation and Enhancement

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant risks to power distribution systems, leading to widespread outages and severe economic and social consequences. This paper presents a novel simulation framework for assessing and enhancing the resilience of power distribution networks under such conditions. Resilience is estimated through Monte Carlo simulations, which simulate extreme weather scenarios and evaluate the impact on infrastructure fragility. Due to the proprietary nature of power network topology, a distribution network is synthesized using publicly available data. To generate the weather scenarios, an extreme weather generation method is developed. To enhance resilience, renewable resources such as solar panels and energy storage systems (batteries in this study) are incorporated. A customized Genetic Algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal locations and capacities for solar panels and battery installations, maximizing resilience while balancing cost constraints. Experiment results demonstrate that on a large-scale synthetic distribution network with more than 300,000 nodes and 300,000 edges, the proposed framework can efficiently evaluate the resilience, and enhance the resilience through the installations of distributed energy resources (DERs), providing utilities with valuable insights for community-level power system resilience estimation and enhancement.

Wang, Xuesong [Wayne State Univ., Detroit, MI (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2022

The public health exposome and pregnancy-related mortality in the United States: a high-dimensional computational analysis

Racial inequities in maternal mortality in the U.S. continue to be stark. The 2015–2018, 4-year total population, county-level, pregnancy-related mortality ratio (PRM; deaths per 100,000 live births; National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), restricted use mortality file) was linked with the Public Health Exposome (PHE). Using data reduction techniques, 1591 variables were extracted from over 62,000 variables for use in this analysis, providing information on the relationships between PRM and the social, health and health care, natural, and built environments. Graph theoretical algorithms and Bayesian analysis were applied to PHE/PRM linked data to identify latent networks. PHE variables most strongly correlated with total population PRM were years of potential life lost and overall life expectancy. Population-level indicators of PRM were overall poverty, smoking, lack of exercise, heat, and lack of adequate access to food. In this high-dimensional analysis, overall life expectancy, poverty indicators, and health behaviors were found to be the strongest predictors of pregnancy-related mortality. This provides strong evidence that maternal death is part of a broader constellation of both similar and unique health behaviors, social determinants and environmental exposures as other causes of death.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Turbidity and suspended sediment data for Gwynns Falls, Baisman Run, and Pond Branch, Baltimore County and Baltimore City, MD, USA

This resource includes turbidity and suspended sediment data collected at two sampling stations located on Gwynns Falls in Baltimore County, MD, USA. In addition, two forested reference sites, Baisman Run and Pond Branch at Oregon Ridge, and two urban sites, Dead Run and Maiden's Choice Run (tributaries to Gwynns Falls), were sampled in Baltimore County and Baltimore City, MD, USA. Turbidity sensor data were collected at a 5-minute frequency using YSI EXO2 sondes. Suspended sediment was collected using ISCO samplers for the purpose of establishing correlations between turbidity and suspended sediment concentration. The six sites are co-located with USGS stream gages. This resource is part of the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative Urban Integrated Field Laboratory supported by Department of Energy as well as the Critical Zone Collaborative Network supported by National Science Foundation. This resource includes a technical report summarizing the findings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Distributed PV Hosting Capacity Evaluation Considering Equitable PV Accommodation: Preprint

In distribution systems, distributed photovoltaic (DPV) hosting capacity is widely used by system operators to evaluate how much DPV the distribution networks can accommodate without violating operational constraints. With the proliferation of DPV deployment, if managed properly, it offers a great opportunity to mitigate the persistent energy inequity issue in electric grid. Otherwise, energy inequity can be exacerbated with unequal DPV access when hosting capacity improvement plans ignore the equity factor. To consider energy equity in distribution network planning for enhancing DPV accommodation, the hosting capacity evaluation should be improved to consider equity constraints endogenously. In this paper, a DPV hosting capacity evaluation method is proposed considering equitable DPV access among sub-regions of a distribution feeder partitioned by social-economic indicators such as the income levels. The results demonstrate that considering equity in DPV hosting capacity evaluation can provide valuable reference in the equitable energy transition. This work provides a valuable guidance for future distribution network upgrade planning for equitable DPV deployment.

distributed PV↗

DOE OSTI2024

Geospatial Capabilities to Couple Hazard and Social Vulnerability Data in Water Distribution Criticality Analysis

A resilience analysis of a water distribution system is greatly enhanced by the integration of up-to-date geospatial data describing the water system, hazards, and surrounding community. The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR), an open-source Python package designed to simulate and analyze the resilience of water distribution systems, was recently updated to incorporate geographic information system (GIS) data into the resilience analysis. This paper describes the GIS capabilities and includes a case study using the drinking water distribution system model for a large city in Pennsylvania. The case study focuses on potential pipe damage from landslides and on pipes that are particularly difficult to repair. The analysis couples data on hazards, social vulnerability, and the location of emergency services to identify and prioritize high-impact critical infrastructure for mitigation. Results demonstrate that pipes can be prioritized for mitigation based on water shortage and vulnerable populations that are affected. In conclusion, the methods can be adopted for general use and are available as part of the WNTR software.

GIS, landslide↗

DOE OSTI2025

Out-of-distribution detection with non-parametric density estimation for models predicting processing history of uranium ore concentrates

The rapid advancement in machine learning (ML) and computer vision (CV) coincides with the growth of interest in deploying these ML/CV models in numerous fields from medicine to social science. Similar to those areas, we have witnessed a great number of works in materials science employing ML/CV models – neural networks in particular – in their studies in recent years. These models have proven to obtain accurate performance in various tasks. However, these models struggle to attain a similar performance when encountering test samples coming from a distribution that is different from the training set. More importantly, they fail without providing any warning to the users. Therefore, we propose a framework for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples to alert users when a human intervention might be necessary in this work. Specifically, we explore the use of a non-parametric density estimation method to detect OOD samples. Here, we assess OOD detection capability of the proposed framework on ML models developed for categorizing precipitation routes of U 3 O 8 when encountering OOD datasets that contain samples (1) undergone different imaging acquisition process, (2) undergone different material synthesis process, and (3) different materials than ID set. Through those experiments, we achieve an average area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of at least 91% on average in detecting OOD samples. With minimal overhead cost and superior performance, the proposed framework enables a reliable and safe system when deploying in real-world scenarios.

Convolutional neural networks↗